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spurious scholar

Because if p < 0.05, why not publish?

Step 1: Gather a bunch of data. There are 25,156 variables in my database. The data ranges from the mundane (air pollution in Chicago) to the weird (Hotdogs consumed by Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition Champion) to the super-niche (How clickbait-y Numberphile YouTube video titles are, as rated by an AI).
Step 2: Dredge that data to find random correlations between variables. "Dredging data" means taking one variable and correlating it against every other variable just to see what sticks. It's a dangerous way to go about analysis, because any sufficiently large dataset will yield strong correlations completely at random.

Fun fact: the chart used on the wikipedia page to demonstrate data dredging is also from me. I've been being naughty with data since 2014.

Step 3: Calculate the correlation coefficient, confidence interval, and p-value to see if the connection is statistically significant. "Statistically significant" is a misleading term. It sounds like it means "statistically significant" because, you know, those are the same two words. Unfortunately statistical significance is a technical term that means mumble mumble at least as extreme mumble mumble null hypothesis mumble mumble probability mumble mumble p-values.

You know what? Forget the technical definition. "Statistically significant" just means "someone did some fancy math."

I really did the fancy math below and you can check it by clicking on the "view detailed data" link under each paper. And these really do qualify as "statistically significant" in the technical sense. It's just that "statistically significant" does not mean the results are "significant."

Step 4: If it is, have a large language model draft a research paper.
Step 5: Remind everyone that these papers are AI-generated and are not real. Seriously, just pick one and read the lit review section. The silliness of the papers is an artifact of me (1) having fun and (2) acknowledging that realistic-looking AI-generated noise is a real concern for academic research (peer reviews in particular).

The papers could sound more realistic than they do, but I intentionally prompted the model to write papers that look real but sound silly.

Also: every page says "This paper is AI-generated" at the bottom and the first letters of the names of the authors always spell out C-H-A-T-G-P-T.

Step 6: ...publish:

Cart-astrophe: The Correlation Between Maps Without New Zealand Meme Popularity and Event Planner Numbers in New York
Journal of Geographical Anomalies and Meme Studies
r=0.953 · 95% conf. int. [0.823,0.988] · r2=0.907 · p < 0.01
Generated Jan 2024 · View data details

The Mystery of Voting Behavior: Are North Dakota Republicans Searching for 'Scooby Doo, Where Are You'?
The Journal of Political Puzzles and Paradoxes
r=0.938 · 95% conf. int. [0.529,0.993] · r2=0.880 · p < 0.01
Generated Jan 2024 · View data details

Genetically Modified Oh-Cotton-Pickin' Politics: Analyzing the Relationship Between GMO Cotton Usage and Republican Presidential Votes in Arizona
The Journal of Agri-Political Genetics
r=0.943 · 95% conf. int. [0.558,0.994] · r2=0.889 · p < 0.01
Generated Jan 2024 · View data details

Dialing for Democrats: The Connection Between Senatorial Preferences in Hawaii and Google Searches for the President's Phone Number
Journal of Political Googling
r=0.828 · 95% conf. int. [0.200,0.974] · r2=0.686 · p < 0.05
Generated Jan 2024 · View data details

Libertarian Locomotion: The Superhuman Relationship Between Libertarian Votes for Senators in Michigan and the Budget of Marvel Comic-Based Films Released
The Journal of Eccentric Economics
r=0.889 · 95% conf. int. [0.276,0.988] · r2=0.790 · p < 0.05
Generated Jan 2024 · View data details

Tangoing with Tom: Total views on Tom Scott's YouTube videos and the Trend of 'Travelling to Toronto' in Google searches
The Journal of Online Culture and Internet Trends
r=0.902 · 95% conf. int. [0.726,0.967] · r2=0.814 · p < 0.01
Generated Jan 2024 · View data details

Kerosene Comedy: Illuminating the Connection Between Kerosene Use in Italy and the Liking Patterns of MinuteEarth YouTube Videos
The International Journal of Quirky Energy and Offbeat Observations
r=0.820 · 95% conf. int. [0.393,0.956] · r2=0.672 · p < 0.01
Generated Jan 2024 · View data details

Libertarian Leverage: Linking Utah Senators’ Supporters to Winnebago Woes
The Journal of Political Puzzles and Policy Paradoxes
r=0.929 · 95% conf. int. [0.479,0.992] · r2=0.864 · p < 0.01
Generated Jan 2024 · View data details

Republi-Cashin' In: Unearthing the Curious Correlation Between Republican Senatorial Votes in Connecticut and Mega Millions Lottery Numbers
The Journal of Political and Parapsychological Statistics
r=0.864 · 95% conf. int. [0.176,0.985] · r2=0.747 · p < 0.05
Generated Jan 2024 · View data details

Rain in San Diego, LockPickingLawyer's Video Titles, and the Mystery Unveiled
Journal of Mysterious Meteorology
r=0.912 · 95% conf. int. [0.580,0.984] · r2=0.831 · p < 0.01
Generated Jan 2024 · View data details

Clearing the Air: An Analysis of the Correlation Between Air Pollution in Shreveport and the Frequency of Pirate Attacks Worldwide
The Journal of Environmental Anomalies and Global Nautical Trends
r=0.821 · 95% conf. int. [0.516,0.942] · r2=0.675 · p < 0.01
Generated Jan 2024 · View data details

Zaire's Zealous Zip with the 'Spiderman Pointing' Sensation: A Statistical Study
The Journal of Quirky Statistical Phenomena
r=0.977 · 95% conf. int. [0.935,0.992] · r2=0.954 · p < 0.01
Generated Jan 2024 · View data details

Unlucky Linkage: Exploring the Correlation between 'Bad Luck Brian' Meme Popularity and Total Comments on MinutePhysics YouTube Videos
Journal of Internet Culture and Memetics
r=0.921 · 95% conf. int. [0.750,0.976] · r2=0.848 · p < 0.01
Generated Jan 2024 · View data details

Democratic Gas: Unearthing the Curious Correlation between Alabama Senatorial Votes and LPG Consumption in Kyrgyzstan
Journal of Comparative Political Quirkiness
r=0.903 · 95% conf. int. [0.598,0.980] · r2=0.816 · p < 0.01
Generated Jan 2024 · View data details

Home Is Where the Votes Are: A Correlational Study of US Household Spending on Housing and Democratic Presidential Voting Behavior in Utah
The Journal of Political Housing Economics
r=0.940 · 95% conf. int. [0.541,0.994] · r2=0.883 · p < 0.01
Generated Jan 2024 · View data details

Building Connections: The Clickbait Ceiling - A Correlational Study of MinuteEarth Video Titles and Idaho's Drywall and Ceiling Tile Installation Industry
Journal of Multimedia Marketing and Construction Trends
r=0.886 · 95% conf. int. [0.580,0.973] · r2=0.785 · p < 0.01
Generated Jan 2024 · View data details

Butterfly Effect: Exploring the Correlation Between the 'is this a butterfly' Meme Popularity and the Number of University Cultural Studies Teachers in Missouri
The Journal of Internet Memetics and Cultural Analysis
r=0.893 · 95% conf. int. [0.712,0.963] · r2=0.797 · p < 0.01
Generated Jan 2024 · View data details

The Unimpressed Kentucky: Exploring the Correlation between McKayla Maroney Memes and Orderly Employment Trends
The Journal of Memetic Studies
r=0.938 · 95% conf. int. [0.754,0.986] · r2=0.880 · p < 0.01
Generated Jan 2024 · View data details

It's All in the Title: A Witty Investigation into the Relationship Between 3Blue1Brown YouTube Video Titles and UFO Sightings in South Dakota
The Journal of Extraterrestrial Mathematics and Witty Investigations
r=0.961 · 95% conf. int. [0.750,0.994] · r2=0.923 · p < 0.01
Generated Jan 2024 · View data details

The Wrinkle Effect: A Correlation Between Air Quality in Gaffney, South Carolina and Botox Injections Administered to Women
The Journal of Cosmetic Chemistry and Environmental Health
r=0.883 · 95% conf. int. [0.722,0.953] · r2=0.779 · p < 0.01
Generated Jan 2024 · View data details

The Diesel Dilemma: Unleaded Laughter in Manitowoc and Slovenian Fuel Shenanigans
Journal of Comedic Fuel Research
r=0.830 · 95% conf. int. [0.674,0.915] · r2=0.689 · p < 0.01
Generated Jan 2024 · View data details

The Bazinga Effect: A Statistical Analysis of the Impact of the 'Bazinga' Meme's Popularity on Google Searches for 'Facebook'
Journal of Internet Memetics Research
r=0.887 · 95% conf. int. [0.718,0.958] · r2=0.788 · p < 0.01
Generated Jan 2024 · View data details

Stopping the Recall: An Unforgettable Connection between 'Drake' Meme Popularity and Automotive Woes at Chrysler
Journal of Memetic Engineering
r=0.906 · 95% conf. int. [0.753,0.966] · r2=0.820 · p < 0.01
Generated Jan 2024 · View data details

The Nerdy and the Nifty: Exploring the Relationship Between MinuteEarth Video Titles and Trip.com Group's Stock Price
The Journal of Quirky Economics
r=0.884 · 95% conf. int. [0.605,0.970] · r2=0.781 · p < 0.01
Generated Jan 2024 · View data details

You're Breathtaking: The Keanu-nundrum of Popularity and Comments on MrBeast YouTube Videos
The Journal of Internet Phenomena Studies
r=0.930 · 95% conf. int. [0.746,0.982] · r2=0.865 · p < 0.01
Generated Jan 2024 · View data details


Currently viewing 25 of 4,731 spurious research papers

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Why this works

  1. Data dredging: I have 25,156 variables in my database. I compare all these variables against each other to find ones that randomly match up. That's 632,824,336 correlation calculations! This is called “data dredging.” Fun fact: the chart used on the wikipedia page to demonstrate data dredging is also from me. I've been being naughty with data since 2014.
    Instead of starting with a hypothesis and testing it, I isntead tossed a bunch of data in a blender to see what correlations would shake out. It’s a dangerous way to go about analysis, because any sufficiently large dataset will yield strong correlations completely at random.
  2. Lack of causal connection: There is probably no direct connection between these variables, despite what the AI says above. Because these pages are automatically generated, it's possible that the two variables you are viewing are in fact causually related. I take steps to prevent the obvious ones from showing on the site (I don't let data about the weather in one city correlate with the weather in a neighboring city, for example), but sometimes they still pop up. If they are related, cool! You found a loophole.
    This is exacerbated by the fact that I used "Years" as the base variable. Lots of things happen in a year that are not related to each other! Most studies would use something like "one person" in stead of "one year" to be the "thing" studied.
  3. Observations not independent: For many variables, sequential years are not independent of each other. You will often see trend-lines form. If a population of people is continuously doing something every day, there is no reason to think they would suddenly change how they are doing that thing on January 1. A naive p-value calculation does not take this into account. You will calculate a lower chance of "randomly" achieving the result than represents reality.

    To be more specific: p-value tests are probability values, where you are calculating the probability of achieving a result at least as extreme as you found completely by chance. When calculating a p-value, you need to assert how many "degrees of freedom" your variable has. I count each year (minus one) as a "degree of freedom," but this is misleading for continuous variables.

    This kind of thing can creep up on you pretty easily when using p-values, which is why it's best to take it as "one of many" inputs that help you assess the results of your analysis.
  4. Outliers: Some datasets here have outliers which drag up the correlation. In concept, "outlier" just means "way different than the rest of your dataset." When calculating a correlation like this, they are particularly impactful because a single outlier can substantially increase your correlation.

    Because this page is automatically generated, I don't know whether any of the charts displayed on it have outliers. I'm just a footnote. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
    I intentionally mishandeled outliers, which makes the correlation look extra strong.



Spurious Scholar was launched January 27, 2024. If you have feedback on it, I'd love to hear from you! Shoot me a note: feedback@tylervigen.com.


Project by Tyler Vigen
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