spurious correlations

correlation is not causation

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A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is How nerdy Tom Scott's YouTube video titles are and the second variable is The number of movies Mila Kunis appeared in. The chart goes from 2009 to 2022, and the two variables track closely in value over that time.

View details about correlation #5,852

^{Show scatterplot}

What else correlates?
How nerdy Tom Scott's YouTube video titles are · all YouTube
The number of movies Mila Kunis appeared in · all films & actors

A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is Google searches for 'how to go to space' and the second variable is Chipotle Mexican Grill's stock price (CMG). The chart goes from 2007 to 2023, and the two variables track closely in value over that time.

View details about correlation #2,819

^{Show scatterplot}

What else correlates?
Google searches for 'how to go to space' · all google searches
Chipotle Mexican Grill's stock price (CMG) · all stocks

A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is Ticket sales for Houston Astros games and the second variable is Instructor salaries in the US. The chart goes from 2009 to 2019, and the two variables track closely in value over that time.

View details about correlation #2,751

^{Show scatterplot}

What else correlates?
Ticket sales for Houston Astros games · all sports
Instructor salaries in the US · all education

A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is GDP per capita in Canada and the second variable is Gasoline Prices in the US. The chart goes from 2009 to 2022, and the two variables track closely in value over that time.

View details about correlation #2,623

^{Show scatterplot}

What else correlates?
GDP per capita in Canada · all weird & wacky
Gasoline Prices in the US · all weird & wacky

A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is Google searches for 'why do i have green poop' and the second variable is Solar power generated in Bulgaria. The chart goes from 2009 to 2021, and the two variables track closely in value over that time.

View details about correlation #1,233

^{Show scatterplot}

What else correlates?
Google searches for 'why do i have green poop' · all google searches
Solar power generated in Bulgaria · all energy

A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is Votes for Democratic Senators in Delaware and the second variable is Worldwide count of earthquakes with a magnitude between 8.0 and 9.9. The chart goes from 2000 to 2020, and the two variables track closely in value over that time.

View details about correlation #4,596

^{Show scatterplot}

What else correlates?
Votes for Democratic Senators in Delaware · all elections
Worldwide count of earthquakes with a magnitude between 8.0 and 9.9 · all weather

A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is Popularity of the first name Thomas and the second variable is Motor vehicle thefts in Maine. The chart goes from 1985 to 2022, and the two variables track closely in value over that time.

View details about correlation #1,882

^{Show scatterplot}

What else correlates?
Popularity of the first name Thomas · all first names
Motor vehicle thefts in Maine · all random state specific

A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is The number of movies Johnny Depp appeared in and the second variable is Season wins for the Los Angeles Chargers. The chart goes from 2017 to 2023, and the two variables track closely in value over that time.

View details about correlation #5,881

^{Show scatterplot}

What else correlates?
The number of movies Johnny Depp appeared in · all films & actors
Season wins for the Los Angeles Chargers · all sports

A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is Google searches for 'how to annex texas' and the second variable is The number of phlebotomists in Georgia. The chart goes from 2012 to 2022, and the two variables track closely in value over that time.

View details about correlation #1,107

^{Show scatterplot}

What else correlates?
Google searches for 'how to annex texas' · all google searches
The number of phlebotomists in Georgia · all cccupations

A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is Bachelor's degrees awarded in Philosophy and the second variable is Electricity generation in Yemen. The chart goes from 2012 to 2021, and the two variables track closely in value over that time.

View details about correlation #1,431

^{Show scatterplot}

What else correlates?
Bachelor's degrees awarded in Philosophy · all education
Electricity generation in Yemen · all energy

A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is The distance between Neptune and Uranus and the second variable is CVS stock price (CVS). The chart goes from 2002 to 2023, and the two variables track closely in value over that time.

View details about correlation #2,641

^{Show scatterplot}

What else correlates?
The distance between Neptune and Uranus · all planets
CVS stock price (CVS) · all stocks

A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is Popularity of the first name Kelsey and the second variable is NASA's budget appropriation. The chart goes from 1975 to 2022, and the two variables track closely in value over that time.

View details about correlation #1,031

^{Show scatterplot}

What else correlates?
Popularity of the first name Kelsey · all first names
NASA's budget appropriation · all weird & wacky

A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is Popularity of the 'all your base' meme and the second variable is Google searches for 'black holes'. The chart goes from 2006 to 2023, and the two variables track closely in value over that time.

View details about correlation #4,843

^{Show scatterplot}

What else correlates?
Popularity of the 'all your base' meme · all memes
Google searches for 'black holes' · all google searches

A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is Bachelor's degrees awarded in Precision production and the second variable is The number of parking enforcement workers in New Jersey. The chart goes from 2012 to 2021, and the two variables track closely in value over that time.

View details about correlation #1,529

^{Show scatterplot}

What else correlates?
Bachelor's degrees awarded in Precision production · all education
The number of parking enforcement workers in New Jersey · all cccupations

A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is Yogurt consumption and the second variable is The Bank of Nova Scotia's stock price (BNS). The chart goes from 2003 to 2021, and the two variables track closely in value over that time.

View details about correlation #2,638

^{Show scatterplot}

What else correlates?
Yogurt consumption · all food
The Bank of Nova Scotia's stock price (BNS) · all stocks

A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is Super Bowl point difference and the second variable is Highest sale price for a single-family home in Connecticut. The chart goes from 2006 to 2021, and the two variables track closely in value over that time.

View details about correlation #3,979

^{Show scatterplot}

What else correlates?
Super Bowl point difference · all sports
Highest sale price for a single-family home in Connecticut · all weird & wacky

A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is The distance between Neptune and the Sun and the second variable is Popularity of the first name Andrea. The chart goes from 1975 to 2022, and the two variables track closely in value over that time.

View details about correlation #1,222

^{Show scatterplot}

What else correlates?
The distance between Neptune and the Sun · all planets
Popularity of the first name Andrea · all first names

A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is Air pollution in Oklahoma City and the second variable is Google searches for 'funny cat videos'. The chart goes from 2004 to 2012, and the two variables track closely in value over that time.

View details about correlation #2,187

^{Show scatterplot}

What else correlates?
Air pollution in Oklahoma City · all weather
Google searches for 'funny cat videos' · all google searches

A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is The number of movies Ewan McGregor appeared in and the second variable is The number of ophthalmic medical technicians in Connecticut. The chart goes from 2012 to 2022, and the two variables track closely in value over that time.

View details about correlation #5,869

^{Show scatterplot}

What else correlates?
The number of movies Ewan McGregor appeared in · all films & actors
The number of ophthalmic medical technicians in Connecticut · all cccupations

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Why this works

Data dredging: I have 25,237 variables in my database. I compare all these variables against each other to find ones that randomly match up. That's 636,906,169 correlation calculations! This is called “data dredging.”^Note Fun fact: the chart used on the wikipedia page to demonstrate data dredging is also from me. I've been being naughty with data since 2014.
Instead of starting with a hypothesis and testing it, I instead tossed a bunch of data in a blender to see what correlations would shake out. It’s a dangerous way to go about analysis, because any sufficiently large dataset will yield strong correlations completely at random.
Lack of causal connection: There is probably no direct connection between these variables, despite what the AI says above.^Note Because these pages are automatically generated, it's possible that the two variables you are viewing are in fact causually related. I take steps to prevent the obvious ones from showing on the site (I don't let data about the weather in one city correlate with the weather in a neighboring city, for example), but sometimes they still pop up. If they are related, cool! You found a loophole.
This is exacerbated by the fact that I used "Years" as the base variable. Lots of things happen in a year that are not related to each other! Most studies would use something like "one person" in stead of "one year" to be the "thing" studied.
Observations not independent: For many variables, sequential years are not independent of each other. You will often see trend-lines form. If a population of people is continuously doing something every day, there is no reason to think they would suddenly change how they are doing that thing on January 1. A naive p-value calculation does not take this into account.^Note You will calculate a lower chance of "randomly" achieving the result than represents reality.

To be more specific: p-value tests are probability values, where you are calculating the probability of achieving a result at least as extreme as you found completely by chance. When calculating a p-value, you need to assert how many "degrees of freedom" your variable has. I count each year (minus one) as a "degree of freedom," but this is misleading for continuous variables.

This kind of thing can creep up on you pretty easily when using p-values, which is why it's best to take it as "one of many" inputs that help you assess the results of your analysis.
Y-axes doesn't start at zero: I truncated the Y-axes of the graphs above. I also used a line graph, which makes the visual connection stand out more than it deserves. ^Note Nothing against line graphs. They are great at telling a story when you have linear data! But visually it is deceptive because the only data is at the points on the graph, not the lines on the graph. In between each point, the data could have been doing anything. Like going for a random walk by itself!
Mathematically what I showed is true, but it is intentionally misleading. If you click on any of the charts that abuse this, you can scroll down to see a version that starts at zero.
Confounding variable: Confounding variables (like global pandemics) will cause two variables to look connected when in fact a "sneaky third" variable is influencing both of them behind the scenes.
Outliers: Some datasets here have outliers which drag up the correlation.^Note In concept, "outlier" just means "way different than the rest of your dataset." When calculating a correlation like this, they are particularly impactful because a single outlier can substantially increase your correlation.

Because this page is automatically generated, I don't know whether any of the charts displayed on it have outliers. I'm just a footnote. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
I intentionally mishandeled outliers, which makes the correlation look extra strong.
Low n: There are not many data points included in some of these charts.^Note You can do analyses with low ns! But you shouldn't data dredge with a low n.
Even if the p-value is high, we should be suspicious of using so few datapoints in a correlation.

Pro-tip: click on any correlation to see:

Detailed data sources
Prompts for the AI-generated content
Explanations of each of the calculations (correlation, p-value)
Python code to calculate it yourself

Project by Tyler Vigen
emailme@tylervigen.com · about · subscribe

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