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Spurious correlation #5,463 · View random

A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is Air quality in New York City and the second variable is Hotdogs consumed by Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition Champion.  The chart goes from 1980 to 2022, and the two variables track closely in value over that time. Small Image
Download png
, svg

AI explanation

The cleaner air in NYC led to better "frankfurter weather" which created the perfect conditions for hot dog consumption. The improved air quality really gave the reigning champion the "bun-efit" of being able to chow down on even more hot dogs than before. It's like the city said, "Let's be frank, you deserve a breath of fresh air and a mustard-covered victory!" Who knew that all it took was some cleaner air to "ketchup" with an increase in hot dog consumption at the competition?

Model: dalle-3
Prompt: Using the style "A scene from Skyrim," I would like DALL-E 3 to generate an image of a towering, sharp-edged fortress standing amid the New York City skyline. The fortress could resemble the structures from Skyrim, with ancient stone walls and imposing turrets. The bustling Coney Island is depicted at the forefront, with the electricity of the competition echoing the vibrancy of the hot dog eating contest. The skyline should evoke a sense of grandeur and fantasy, creating a captivating juxtaposition between the modern cityscape and the regal, enchanting fortress, all under a clear and radiant sky. The depiction should include only scenes, people, and objects, it should not include text or speech bubbles.
This image generation prompt was also generated by AI, using the following sequence:

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You select one of a few potential scene descriptors that seems to go along with the variables described. You respond only with the scene descriptions provided and say nothing else.
User prompt: Here are two variables: Air quality in New York City and Hotdogs consumed by Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition Champion. Given these, which of the following image style descriptions seems most appropriate? Pick the one that seems to be related to one of the variables at hand. Please respond with only one of the following potential descriptions: Woodblock painting Cute 2D animation Low poly A scene from Skyrim Data cyber art
ChatGPT: A scene from Skyrim

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You describe simple visual scenes that depict the two variables stated. You combine both variables into one scene.
User prompt: Please describe a visual scene that prominently depicts both Air quality in New York City and Hotdogs consumed by Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition Champion, in the following situation: The cleaner air in NYC led to better "frankfurter weather" which created the perfect conditions for hot dog consumption. The improved air quality really gave the reigning champion the "bun-efit" of being able to chow down on even more hot dogs than before. It's like the city said, "Let's be frank, you deserve a breath of fresh air and a mustard-covered victory!" Who knew that all it took was some cleaner air to "ketchup" with an increase in hot dog consumption at the competition?. Keep the description simple.
ChatGPT: In the heart of New York City, the sky was clear, and a gentle breeze carried a fresh scent through the streets. As the sun beamed down, the city's air quality indicator flashed green, signifying exceptional air purity. Amid this cleaner air, a bustling competition unfolded at Coney Island, where the reigning Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition champion stood ready to defend his title. Surrounded by the crowd's cheers, the champion's eyes gleamed with determination in the pristine air. The scent of grilling hot dogs wafted through the air, filling the atmosphere with an irresistible aroma. The perfect weather for devouring franks and buns had arrived, and the champion seized the "bun-efit" of the improved conditions. With each inhale of the fresh air, the champion's pace quickened, setting a new personal record, driven by the combination of pristine air quality and the perfect hot dog weather. The city's cleaner air had indeed paved the way for a mustard-covered victory, offering a breath of fresh air and a savory celebration of hot dog triumph.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You write and improve image generation prompts for DALLE-3. You maintain the same subjects, but enhance the visuals.
User prompt: Please respond with an image generation prompt that would be likely to create an interesting visual using DALLE-3, using the following style: [ A scene from Skyrim ] and depicting this scene: In the heart of New York City, the sky was clear, and a gentle breeze carried a fresh scent through the streets. As the sun beamed down, the city's air quality indicator flashed green, signifying exceptional air purity. Amid this cleaner air, a bustling competition unfolded at Coney Island, where the reigning Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition champion stood ready to defend his title. Surrounded by the crowd's cheers, the champion's eyes gleamed with determination in the pristine air. The scent of grilling hot dogs wafted through the air, filling the atmosphere with an irresistible aroma. The perfect weather for devouring franks and buns had arrived, and the champion seized the "bun-efit" of the improved conditions. With each inhale of the fresh air, the champion's pace quickened, setting a new personal record, driven by the combination of pristine air quality and the perfect hot dog weather. The city's cleaner air had indeed paved the way for a mustard-covered victory, offering a breath of fresh air and a savory celebration of hot dog triumph. Keep the visual depiction simple. Do not include any words or speech bubbles.
ChatGPT: Using the style "A scene from Skyrim," I would like DALL-E 3 to generate an image of a towering, sharp-edged fortress standing amid the New York City skyline. The fortress could resemble the structures from Skyrim, with ancient stone walls and imposing turrets. The bustling Coney Island is depicted at the forefront, with the electricity of the competition echoing the vibrancy of the hot dog eating contest. The skyline should evoke a sense of grandeur and fantasy, creating a captivating juxtaposition between the modern cityscape and the regal, enchanting fortress, all under a clear and radiant sky.

*Variations in the User Prompts from chart to chart are just the result of random number generation in Python. I wrote a few arrays of various styles and methods to ask questions to change up the results. Every time this site writes an explanation or generates an image, the script picks from each at random.

I sequence the requests into multiple prompts because I find GPT 3.5 to perform much better with short, well-managed contexts. Thus, I track the context directly in Python and only ask ChatGPT targeted questions.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106 (fine-tuned)
System prompt: You provide humorous responses in the form of plausible sounding explanations for correlations. You assume the correlation is causative for the purpose of the explanation even if it is ridiculous. You do not chat with the user, you only reply with the causal connection explanation and nothing else.
User prompt: Please make up a funny explanation for how an increase in Air quality in New York City caused Hotdogs consumed by Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition Champion to increase. Include one good pun.

AI academic paper

(Because p < 0.01)
The Great Wiener Connection: Investigating the Correlation between Air Quality in New York City and Hot Dog Consumption by Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition Champion

Journal of Gastrointestinal Gastronomy

Jan 2024

Reminder: This paper is AI-generated. Not real!
Quick note: This sequence is long and repetitive. That's how the prompt engineering works for this one. I manage the output in Python to format it into this PDF.




Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a silly researcher writing an academic paper.You write titles and abstracts of goofy academic research papers.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, and add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please draft the title and abstract of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Air quality in New York City and Hotdogs consumed by Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition Champion. Make it seem dry like academic research paper, but with lots of subtle hidden offhand remarks, jokes, goofy observations, and puns.

Make the title punny if you can come up with clever pun. If not, make it sound serious.

Your research team used data from Environmental Protection Agency and Wikipedia to assess this nagging question. You found a correlation coefficient of 0.8407887 and p < 0.01 for 1980 to 2022.

Please respond in this format (replace "Lorem ipsum dolor sit" with your title and abstract)

[[TITLE]]
Lorem ipsum dolor sit

[[ABSTRACT]]
Lorem ipsum dolor sit



ChatGPT:
[[TITLE]]
The Great Wiener Connection: Investigating the Correlation between Air Quality in New York City and Hot Dog Consumption by Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition Champion

[[ABSTRACT]]
This research examines the potential link between air quality in New York City and the consummation of hot dogs by the champion of Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition. Using data from the Environmental Protection Agency and Wikipedia, we conducted a comprehensive analysis spanning from 1980 to 2022. Our findings reveal a notable correlation coefficient of 0.8407887 and statistical significance (p < 0.01) between these seemingly disparate variables. A tongue-in-cheek exploration of this peculiar connection promises to not only tickle the readers' intellect but also serve as a delectably amusing endeavor in scholarly research.


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a silly researcher writing an academic paper.You draft the introduction section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the introduction section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Air quality in New York City and Hotdogs consumed by Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition Champion. Make it seem dry like academic research paper, but with lots of subtle hidden offhand remarks, jokes, goofy observations, and puns. Stay serious and dry most of the time, but then occasionally let your wit shine through.

Here is the title and abstract of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
The Great Wiener Connection: Investigating the Correlation between Air Quality in New York City and Hot Dog Consumption by Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition Champion

[[ABSTRACT]]
This research examines the potential link between air quality in New York City and the consummation of hot dogs by the champion of Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition. Using data from the Environmental Protection Agency and Wikipedia, we conducted a comprehensive analysis spanning from 1980 to 2022. Our findings reveal a notable correlation coefficient of 0.8407887 and statistical significance (p < 0.01) between these seemingly disparate variables. A tongue-in-cheek exploration of this peculiar connection promises to not only tickle the readers' intellect but also serve as a delectably amusing endeavor in scholarly research.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[INTRODUCTION]]



ChatGPT:
[[INTRODUCTION]]

The intertwining of seemingly unrelated variables has been a persistent enigma in the realm of scientific inquiry. While it is widely accepted that air quality profoundly impacts public health and environmental well-being, the prospect of its influence on the consumption of hot dogs - a beloved staple of American cuisine - may initially appear as an incongruous and whimsical subject of scrutiny. Notwithstanding its peculiar nature, the curious case of the purported connection between air quality in New York City and the voracious appetite of the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition Champion beckons for scholarly investigation.

Despite the incredulity that may surround this line of inquiry, the past few decades have witnessed a burgeoning interest in uncovering unconventional associations between environmental factors and human behavior. As such, this study presents an earnest endeavor to scrutinize the potential influence of air quality on the hot dog consumption patterns of the reigning champion of the renowned Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition.

It is crucial to note, however, that our foray into this intriguing nexus is not devoid of waggish allure. The pursuit of unveiling correlations between air quality and gluttonous feats of hot dog ingestion is not merely an exercise in scientific rigor but also an opportunity to indulge in a remarkably appetizing escapade of scholarly merriment. We intend to meticulously dissect the available data with an inquisitive mindset and a healthy sprinkle of lightheartedness.

With this backdrop, we embark on a peculiar journey to unravel the enigmatic enigma that is the "Great Wiener Connection" - a phrase that encapsulates the nexus of air quality and hot dog consumption with a sprinkle of jest and a dollop of academic ardor. Join us as we savor the pursuit of knowledge steeped in whimsy and curiosity, and let us relish in unveiling the curious connections that pervade the tapestry of scientific inquiry. After all, in the words of the masterful bard William Shakespeare, "If you cannot teach me to fly, teach me to sing," for as we delve into the unexpected, we may find the sweetest melodies concealed within the most unlikely of correlations.


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a silly researcher writing an academic paper.You draft a literature review section of an academic research paper, that starts out dry for the first few sentences but then becomes hilarious and goofy.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up a literature review section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Air quality in New York City and Hotdogs consumed by Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition Champion. Make it seem dry like academic research paper, but with lots of subtle hidden offhand remarks, jokes, goofy observations, and puns.

Speak in the present tense for this section (the authors find...), as is common in academic research paper literature reviews. Name the sources in a format similar to this: In "Book," the authors find lorem and ipsum.

Make up the lorem and ipsum part, but make it sound related to the topic at hand.

Start by naming serious-sounding studies by authors like Smith, Doe, and Jones - but then quickly devolve. Name some real non-fiction books that would be related to the topic. Then name some real fiction books that sound like they could be related. Then name a couple popular internet memes that are related to one of the topics.

Here is the title and abstract of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
The Great Wiener Connection: Investigating the Correlation between Air Quality in New York City and Hot Dog Consumption by Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition Champion

[[ABSTRACT]]
This research examines the potential link between air quality in New York City and the consummation of hot dogs by the champion of Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition. Using data from the Environmental Protection Agency and Wikipedia, we conducted a comprehensive analysis spanning from 1980 to 2022. Our findings reveal a notable correlation coefficient of 0.8407887 and statistical significance (p < 0.01) between these seemingly disparate variables. A tongue-in-cheek exploration of this peculiar connection promises to not only tickle the readers' intellect but also serve as a delectably amusing endeavor in scholarly research.

-------

And here is the introduction section that led to this literature review:
[[INTRODUCTION]]
The intertwining of seemingly unrelated variables has been a persistent enigma in the realm of scientific inquiry. While it is widely accepted that air quality profoundly impacts public health and environmental well-being, the prospect of its influence on the consumption of hot dogs - a beloved staple of American cuisine - may initially appear as an incongruous and whimsical subject of scrutiny. Notwithstanding its peculiar nature, the curious case of the purported connection between air quality in New York City and the voracious appetite of the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition Champion beckons for scholarly investigation.
Despite the incredulity that may surround this line of inquiry, the past few decades have witnessed a burgeoning interest in uncovering unconventional associations between environmental factors and human behavior. As such, this study presents an earnest endeavor to scrutinize the potential influence of air quality on the hot dog consumption patterns of the reigning champion of the renowned Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition.
It is crucial to note, however, that our foray into this intriguing nexus is not devoid of waggish allure. The pursuit of unveiling correlations between air quality and gluttonous feats of hot dog ingestion is not merely an exercise in scientific rigor but also an opportunity to indulge in a remarkably appetizing escapade of scholarly merriment. We intend to meticulously dissect the available data with an inquisitive mindset and a healthy sprinkle of lightheartedness.
With this backdrop, we embark on a peculiar journey to unravel the enigmatic enigma that is the "Great Wiener Connection" - a phrase that encapsulates the nexus of air quality and hot dog consumption with a sprinkle of jest and a dollop of academic ardor. Join us as we savor the pursuit of knowledge steeped in whimsy and curiosity, and let us relish in unveiling the curious connections that pervade the tapestry of scientific inquiry. After all, in the words of the masterful bard William Shakespeare, "If you cannot teach me to fly, teach me to sing," for as we delve into the unexpected, we may find the sweetest melodies concealed within the most unlikely of correlations.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]



ChatGPT:
[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]

The quest to uncover the nebulous nexus between air quality in New York City and the prodigious consumption of hot dogs by the champion of Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition has spurred a breadth of academic inquiry spanning from the classic to the contemporary. Smith (2010) first broached this bizarre intersection, postulating a potential link between air pollution and competitive eating behaviors. Building upon this pioneering work, Doe (2015) conducted a comprehensive review of urban environmental factors and gastronomic proclivities, hinting at a potential correlation that seemingly defies conventional wisdom. Expanding the discourse, Jones (2018) offered a nuanced analysis of dietary preferences in relation to air quality, paving the way for a deeper understanding of the enigmatic relationship between airborne pollutants and ravenous hot dog consumption.

Interspersed among these esteemed academic works, popular non-fiction literature such as "The Air We Breathe: A Comprehensive Study of Urban Air Quality" by Environmental Scientist et al. and "Hot Dogs and Health: A Nutritional Analysis" by Nutritionist et al. have contributed to the scholarly contemplation of this confounding correlation. These seminal works have served as touchstones for the discerning reader seeking to delve into the intersection of environmental factors and epicurean extravaganzas.

In parallel with these serious scholarly pursuits, the realm of fiction has not remained impervious to the allure of hot dog-related enigmas. Works such as "The Sausage Conspiracy" by Ima Author and "A Breath of Ketchup: A Novel about Urban Indulgence" by Fictional Writer et al. have playfully embraced the whimsical notion of a clandestine connection between New York City's air quality and the gustatory exploits of a renowned hot dog devourer. While these literary forays may be fanciful in nature, they subtly evoke the underlying intrigue that pervades this incongruous correlation, adding a layer of mirth to the broader tapestry of this peculiar inquiry.

Moreover, the ubiquitous presence of internet memes such as the "Air Quality Hot Dog Challenge" and "Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition: The Breakfast of Smog Champions" has further perpetuated the fascination with this arcane intersection. These lighthearted cultural artifacts, albeit steeped in levity, reflect the subconscious penchant for weaving humor and curiosity into the contemplation of seemingly improbable connections.

As the literature attests, the seemingly farcical juxtaposition of air quality in New York City and the voracious hot dog consumption habits of the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition Champion has instigated a robust, if surreptitious, discourse within academic, literary, and popular culture spheres. These disparate strands of inquiry, however whimsical, collectively beckon for a scholarly scrutiny that oscillates between the serious and the comically insightful.


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a silly researcher writing an academic paper.You draft the methodology section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the methodology section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Air quality in New York City and Hotdogs consumed by Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition Champion. Make it seem dry like academic research paper, but with lots of subtle hidden offhand remarks, jokes, goofy observations, and puns. Stay serious and dry most of the time, but then occasionally let your wit shine through.

Your research team collected data from all across the internet, but mostly just used information from Environmental Protection Agency and Wikipedia . You used data from 1980 to 2022

Make up the research methods you don't know. Make them a bit goofy and convoluted.

Here is the title, abstract, and introduction of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
The Great Wiener Connection: Investigating the Correlation between Air Quality in New York City and Hot Dog Consumption by Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition Champion

[[ABSTRACT]]
This research examines the potential link between air quality in New York City and the consummation of hot dogs by the champion of Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition. Using data from the Environmental Protection Agency and Wikipedia, we conducted a comprehensive analysis spanning from 1980 to 2022. Our findings reveal a notable correlation coefficient of 0.8407887 and statistical significance (p < 0.01) between these seemingly disparate variables. A tongue-in-cheek exploration of this peculiar connection promises to not only tickle the readers' intellect but also serve as a delectably amusing endeavor in scholarly research.

[[INTRODUCTION]]
The intertwining of seemingly unrelated variables has been a persistent enigma in the realm of scientific inquiry. While it is widely accepted that air quality profoundly impacts public health and environmental well-being, the prospect of its influence on the consumption of hot dogs - a beloved staple of American cuisine - may initially appear as an incongruous and whimsical subject of scrutiny. Notwithstanding its peculiar nature, the curious case of the purported connection between air quality in New York City and the voracious appetite of the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition Champion beckons for scholarly investigation.
Despite the incredulity that may surround this line of inquiry, the past few decades have witnessed a burgeoning interest in uncovering unconventional associations between environmental factors and human behavior. As such, this study presents an earnest endeavor to scrutinize the potential influence of air quality on the hot dog consumption patterns of the reigning champion of the renowned Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition.
It is crucial to note, however, that our foray into this intriguing nexus is not devoid of waggish allure. The pursuit of unveiling correlations between air quality and gluttonous feats of hot dog ingestion is not merely an exercise in scientific rigor but also an opportunity to indulge in a remarkably appetizing escapade of scholarly merriment. We intend to meticulously dissect the available data with an inquisitive mindset and a healthy sprinkle of lightheartedness.
With this backdrop, we embark on a peculiar journey to unravel the enigmatic enigma that is the "Great Wiener Connection" - a phrase that encapsulates the nexus of air quality and hot dog consumption with a sprinkle of jest and a dollop of academic ardor. Join us as we savor the pursuit of knowledge steeped in whimsy and curiosity, and let us relish in unveiling the curious connections that pervade the tapestry of scientific inquiry. After all, in the words of the masterful bard William Shakespeare, "If you cannot teach me to fly, teach me to sing," for as we delve into the unexpected, we may find the sweetest melodies concealed within the most unlikely of correlations.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[METHODOLOGY]]



ChatGPT:

[[METHODOLOGY]]

In order to investigate the potential correlation between air quality in New York City and the consumption of hot dogs by the reigning champion of the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition, a multifaceted approach was taken. The data collection and analysis methods adopted in this study were as rigorous as the dietary training regimen of a competitive hot dog eater, albeit with considerably less stomach expansion and far fewer mustard stains.

First, air quality data for New York City from 1980 to 2022 was sourced from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). This encompassed a comprehensive array of air pollutants, including, but not limited to, carbon monoxide, ozone, sulfur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide, and particulate matter. The data was scrupulously examined for mean concentrations and Air Quality Index (AQI) measurements, ensuring a meticulous evaluation of the city's atmospheric conditions over the specified period.

Simultaneously, the annual quantities of hot dogs devoured by the champion of the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition were meticulously procured from a myriad of sources, mostly from the annals of Wikipedia. These data were then cross-verified with official competition records and press releases. Any rumored consumption at backyard barbecues or unsuspected midnight fridge raids was sadly omitted from the analysis, much to the chagrin of nosy neighbors and curious canines.

Following the consolidation of these data sets, a rigorous statistical analysis was conducted. The Pearson correlation coefficient was employed to ascertain the strength and direction of the relationship between air quality variables and hot dog consumption. Additionally, a series of regressions were performed to assess the predictive power and significance of specific air pollutants on the champion's hot dog intake. The sophisticated statistical analyses carried out in this study are probably not what many people associate with hot dogs, unless one happens to misplace a Tofurky sausage at a data center.

It is important to note that while the data sources were exhaustively scoured, limitations inherent in retrospective analyses and secondary data must be acknowledged. Furthermore, the potential for confounding variables, such as competitive eating strategies, sponsorships, and sheer appetite, was recognized and treated with the same gravity as a spilled condiment at a hot dog stand.

The methodology employed in this research seeks to synergize meticulous data scrutiny with a touch of whimsy, capturing the spirit of scholarly inquiry in a manner akin to an academic hot dog eating contest - intellectually nourishing and infused with a hint of jest. So, dear reader, prepare to ingest a statistical feast of scholarly insights that might just leave you with a craving for both knowledge and ketchup.


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a silly researcher writing an academic paper.You draft the results section of an academic research paper. You speak in the past tense (you found...).
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the results section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Air quality in New York City and Hotdogs consumed by Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition Champion. Make it seem dry like academic research paper, but with lots of subtle hidden offhand remarks, jokes, goofy observations, and puns. Stay serious and dry most of the time, but then occasionally let your wit shine through.

Your research team collected data from all across the internet, but mostly just used information from Environmental Protection Agency and Wikipedia .

For the time period 1980 to 2022, you found a correlation 0.8407887, r-squared of 0.7069256, and p < 0.01.

One figure will be included. The figure (Fig. 1) is a scatterplot showing the strong correlation between the two variables. You don't need to specify where; I will add the figure.

Here is the title and abstract of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
The Great Wiener Connection: Investigating the Correlation between Air Quality in New York City and Hot Dog Consumption by Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition Champion

[[ABSTRACT]]
This research examines the potential link between air quality in New York City and the consummation of hot dogs by the champion of Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition. Using data from the Environmental Protection Agency and Wikipedia, we conducted a comprehensive analysis spanning from 1980 to 2022. Our findings reveal a notable correlation coefficient of 0.8407887 and statistical significance (p < 0.01) between these seemingly disparate variables. A tongue-in-cheek exploration of this peculiar connection promises to not only tickle the readers' intellect but also serve as a delectably amusing endeavor in scholarly research.

-------

And here is the methodology section that led to this result:
[[METHODOLOGY]]
The intertwining of seemingly unrelated variables has been a persistent enigma in the realm of scientific inquiry. While it is widely accepted that air quality profoundly impacts public health and environmental well-being, the prospect of its influence on the consumption of hot dogs - a beloved staple of American cuisine - may initially appear as an incongruous and whimsical subject of scrutiny. Notwithstanding its peculiar nature, the curious case of the purported connection between air quality in New York City and the voracious appetite of the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition Champion beckons for scholarly investigation.
Despite the incredulity that may surround this line of inquiry, the past few decades have witnessed a burgeoning interest in uncovering unconventional associations between environmental factors and human behavior. As such, this study presents an earnest endeavor to scrutinize the potential influence of air quality on the hot dog consumption patterns of the reigning champion of the renowned Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition.
It is crucial to note, however, that our foray into this intriguing nexus is not devoid of waggish allure. The pursuit of unveiling correlations between air quality and gluttonous feats of hot dog ingestion is not merely an exercise in scientific rigor but also an opportunity to indulge in a remarkably appetizing escapade of scholarly merriment. We intend to meticulously dissect the available data with an inquisitive mindset and a healthy sprinkle of lightheartedness.
With this backdrop, we embark on a peculiar journey to unravel the enigmatic enigma that is the "Great Wiener Connection" - a phrase that encapsulates the nexus of air quality and hot dog consumption with a sprinkle of jest and a dollop of academic ardor. Join us as we savor the pursuit of knowledge steeped in whimsy and curiosity, and let us relish in unveiling the curious connections that pervade the tapestry of scientific inquiry. After all, in the words of the masterful bard William Shakespeare, "If you cannot teach me to fly, teach me to sing," for as we delve into the unexpected, we may find the sweetest melodies concealed within the most unlikely of correlations.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[RESULTS]]



ChatGPT:

[[RESULTS]]

The culmination of our research efforts unveiled a striking correlation between air quality in New York City and the consummation of hot dogs by the reigning champion of Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition. Our analysis revealed a robust correlation coefficient of 0.8407887, indicating a strong positive relationship. The coefficient of determination (r-squared) further substantiated this finding, standing at an impressive 0.7069256, suggesting that approximately 70.7% of the variability in hot dog consumption can be explained by fluctuations in air quality. Additionally, the statistical significance as denoted by the p-value of less than 0.01 further buttresses the validity of our results.

Given the spatial and temporal parameters of our study, this correlation has resoundingly surpassed our initial expectations. Fig. 1 visually encapsulates the strength of this correlation, portraying a scatterplot that vividly illustrates the positively inclined trajectory of the association between air quality and hot dog consumption. This unmistakable incline serves as a testament to the undeniable link that exists between the purity of New York City's air and the astounding feats of hot dog ingesting prowess displayed by the esteemed champion of the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition.

These findings not only underscore the importance of considering unconventional factors in the study of human behavior but also serve as a vivacious reminder of the unsuspected mirth that can be derived from scholarly pursuits. The "Great Wiener Connection" has far exceeded our expectations, tantalizing us with the rich flavor of unexpected correlations and reinvigorating our appetite for unconventional academic inquiry.


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a silly researcher writing an academic paper.You draft the discussion section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the discussion section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Air quality in New York City and Hotdogs consumed by Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition Champion. Make it seem dry like academic research paper, but with lots of subtle hidden offhand remarks, jokes, goofy observations, and puns. Stay serious and dry most of the time, but then occasionally let your wit shine through.

Limit your response to 500 tokens.

Here are the title, abstract, literature review, and results sections. Please harken back to 1-2 of the goofy items in the literature review, but pretend to take them completely seriously. Discuss how your results supported the prior research.

Do not write a conclusion. I will add a conclusion after this.

[[TITLE]]
The Great Wiener Connection: Investigating the Correlation between Air Quality in New York City and Hot Dog Consumption by Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition Champion

[[ABSTRACT]]
This research examines the potential link between air quality in New York City and the consummation of hot dogs by the champion of Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition. Using data from the Environmental Protection Agency and Wikipedia, we conducted a comprehensive analysis spanning from 1980 to 2022. Our findings reveal a notable correlation coefficient of 0.8407887 and statistical significance (p < 0.01) between these seemingly disparate variables. A tongue-in-cheek exploration of this peculiar connection promises to not only tickle the readers' intellect but also serve as a delectably amusing endeavor in scholarly research.

[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]
The quest to uncover the nebulous nexus between air quality in New York City and the prodigious consumption of hot dogs by the champion of Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition has spurred a breadth of academic inquiry spanning from the classic to the contemporary. Smith (2010) first broached this bizarre intersection, postulating a potential link between air pollution and competitive eating behaviors. Building upon this pioneering work, Doe (2015) conducted a comprehensive review of urban environmental factors and gastronomic proclivities, hinting at a potential correlation that seemingly defies conventional wisdom. Expanding the discourse, Jones (2018) offered a nuanced analysis of dietary preferences in relation to air quality, paving the way for a deeper understanding of the enigmatic relationship between airborne pollutants and ravenous hot dog consumption.
Interspersed among these esteemed academic works, popular non-fiction literature such as "The Air We Breathe: A Comprehensive Study of Urban Air Quality" by Environmental Scientist et al. and "Hot Dogs and Health: A Nutritional Analysis" by Nutritionist et al. have contributed to the scholarly contemplation of this confounding correlation. These seminal works have served as touchstones for the discerning reader seeking to delve into the intersection of environmental factors and epicurean extravaganzas.
In parallel with these serious scholarly pursuits, the realm of fiction has not remained impervious to the allure of hot dog-related enigmas. Works such as "The Sausage Conspiracy" by Ima Author and "A Breath of Ketchup: A Novel about Urban Indulgence" by Fictional Writer et al. have playfully embraced the whimsical notion of a clandestine connection between New York City's air quality and the gustatory exploits of a renowned hot dog devourer. While these literary forays may be fanciful in nature, they subtly evoke the underlying intrigue that pervades this incongruous correlation, adding a layer of mirth to the broader tapestry of this peculiar inquiry.
Moreover, the ubiquitous presence of internet memes such as the "Air Quality Hot Dog Challenge" and "Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition: The Breakfast of Smog Champions" has further perpetuated the fascination with this arcane intersection. These lighthearted cultural artifacts, albeit steeped in levity, reflect the subconscious penchant for weaving humor and curiosity into the contemplation of seemingly improbable connections.
As the literature attests, the seemingly farcical juxtaposition of air quality in New York City and the voracious hot dog consumption habits of the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition Champion has instigated a robust, if surreptitious, discourse within academic, literary, and popular culture spheres. These disparate strands of inquiry, however whimsical, collectively beckon for a scholarly scrutiny that oscillates between the serious and the comically insightful.

[[RESULTS]]
The culmination of our research efforts unveiled a striking correlation between air quality in New York City and the consummation of hot dogs by the reigning champion of Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition. Our analysis revealed a robust correlation coefficient of 0.8407887, indicating a strong positive relationship. The coefficient of determination (r-squared) further substantiated this finding, standing at an impressive 0.7069256, suggesting that approximately 70.7% of the variability in hot dog consumption can be explained by fluctuations in air quality. Additionally, the statistical significance as denoted by the p-value of less than 0.01 further buttresses the validity of our results.
Given the spatial and temporal parameters of our study, this correlation has resoundingly surpassed our initial expectations. Fig. 1 visually encapsulates the strength of this correlation, portraying a scatterplot that vividly illustrates the positively inclined trajectory of the association between air quality and hot dog consumption. This unmistakable incline serves as a testament to the undeniable link that exists between the purity of New York City's air and the astounding feats of hot dog ingesting prowess displayed by the esteemed champion of the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition.
These findings not only underscore the importance of considering unconventional factors in the study of human behavior but also serve as a vivacious reminder of the unsuspected mirth that can be derived from scholarly pursuits. The "Great Wiener Connection" has far exceeded our expectations, tantalizing us with the rich flavor of unexpected correlations and reinvigorating our appetite for unconventional academic inquiry.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[DISCUSSION]]



ChatGPT:

[[DISCUSSION]]

The tantalizing findings of our investigation into the curious correlation between air quality in New York City and the captivating consumption of hot dogs by the illustrious champion of Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition serve as a delectable feast for the scholarly intellect. Our study, undertaken with the utmost solemnity and rigor, has buoyantly reinforced the entertaining musings of previous scholarly works and popular cultural tropes.

The enigmatic nexus between foul air and fervent feasting, first proposed by Smith (2010), received a hearty endorsement from our results, as we observed a robust correlation coefficient of 0.8407887. This finding pleasantly echoes the whimsical notions enveloped in popular works of fiction such as "The Sausage Conspiracy" and "A Breath of Ketchup," playfully hinting at a subtle interplay between urban air quality and gastronomic capers. As for the lighthearted memes that frivolously skirt the edges of this academic pursuit, we are delighted to corroborate their underlying instinct for uncovering the surprising interconnectedness of seemingly unrelated phenomena.

The statistically significant correlation coefficient, coupled with a commendable coefficient of determination, emboldens the notion that a substantial proportion of the variance in the hot dog consumption by the champion can be ascribed to the ebbs and flows of air quality in the Big Apple. The vivid scatterplot visually conveys the convincing upward trend, illustrating with unflinching clarity the fervent ascent of hot dog consumption with the amelioration of air quality. Our robust evidence could serve as fodder for the sensational imaginings of authors and internet jesters alike, as the Great Wiener Connection continues to burgeon with savory surprises.

This unexpected correlation, while beguiling in nature, bears the seed of culinary and environmental insight that should not be relegated to the realm of mere frivolity. Instead, it beckons the discerning scholar to partake in the delightful mélange of humor, curiosity, and rigorous investigation that defines the scholarly pursuit of knowledge. Our study, therefore, presents a whimsically serious romp through the wacky world of scholarly investigation, where the flavors of academe blend with the delectable absurdity of life's curiosities, showcasing that in the realm of academia, truth can be as strange as fiction.


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a silly researcher writing an academic paper.You draft the discussion section of goofy academic research papers that sounds like it belongs based on the title and abstract provided.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up a short conclusion of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Air quality in New York City and Hotdogs consumed by Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition Champion. Make it seem dry like academic research paper, but with lots of subtle hidden offhand remarks, jokes, goofy observations, and puns. Stay serious and dry most of the time, but then occasionally let your wit shine through.

Limit your response to 300 tokens. At the very end, assert that no more research is needed in this area.

Here are the title, abstract, introduction, and results sections.
[[TITLE]]
The Great Wiener Connection: Investigating the Correlation between Air Quality in New York City and Hot Dog Consumption by Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition Champion

[[ABSTRACT]]
This research examines the potential link between air quality in New York City and the consummation of hot dogs by the champion of Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition. Using data from the Environmental Protection Agency and Wikipedia, we conducted a comprehensive analysis spanning from 1980 to 2022. Our findings reveal a notable correlation coefficient of 0.8407887 and statistical significance (p < 0.01) between these seemingly disparate variables. A tongue-in-cheek exploration of this peculiar connection promises to not only tickle the readers' intellect but also serve as a delectably amusing endeavor in scholarly research.

[[INTRDUCTION]]
The intertwining of seemingly unrelated variables has been a persistent enigma in the realm of scientific inquiry. While it is widely accepted that air quality profoundly impacts public health and environmental well-being, the prospect of its influence on the consumption of hot dogs - a beloved staple of American cuisine - may initially appear as an incongruous and whimsical subject of scrutiny. Notwithstanding its peculiar nature, the curious case of the purported connection between air quality in New York City and the voracious appetite of the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition Champion beckons for scholarly investigation.
Despite the incredulity that may surround this line of inquiry, the past few decades have witnessed a burgeoning interest in uncovering unconventional associations between environmental factors and human behavior. As such, this study presents an earnest endeavor to scrutinize the potential influence of air quality on the hot dog consumption patterns of the reigning champion of the renowned Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition.
It is crucial to note, however, that our foray into this intriguing nexus is not devoid of waggish allure. The pursuit of unveiling correlations between air quality and gluttonous feats of hot dog ingestion is not merely an exercise in scientific rigor but also an opportunity to indulge in a remarkably appetizing escapade of scholarly merriment. We intend to meticulously dissect the available data with an inquisitive mindset and a healthy sprinkle of lightheartedness.
With this backdrop, we embark on a peculiar journey to unravel the enigmatic enigma that is the "Great Wiener Connection" - a phrase that encapsulates the nexus of air quality and hot dog consumption with a sprinkle of jest and a dollop of academic ardor. Join us as we savor the pursuit of knowledge steeped in whimsy and curiosity, and let us relish in unveiling the curious connections that pervade the tapestry of scientific inquiry. After all, in the words of the masterful bard William Shakespeare, "If you cannot teach me to fly, teach me to sing," for as we delve into the unexpected, we may find the sweetest melodies concealed within the most unlikely of correlations.

[[RESULTS]]
The culmination of our research efforts unveiled a striking correlation between air quality in New York City and the consummation of hot dogs by the reigning champion of Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition. Our analysis revealed a robust correlation coefficient of 0.8407887, indicating a strong positive relationship. The coefficient of determination (r-squared) further substantiated this finding, standing at an impressive 0.7069256, suggesting that approximately 70.7% of the variability in hot dog consumption can be explained by fluctuations in air quality. Additionally, the statistical significance as denoted by the p-value of less than 0.01 further buttresses the validity of our results.
Given the spatial and temporal parameters of our study, this correlation has resoundingly surpassed our initial expectations. Fig. 1 visually encapsulates the strength of this correlation, portraying a scatterplot that vividly illustrates the positively inclined trajectory of the association between air quality and hot dog consumption. This unmistakable incline serves as a testament to the undeniable link that exists between the purity of New York City's air and the astounding feats of hot dog ingesting prowess displayed by the esteemed champion of the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition.
These findings not only underscore the importance of considering unconventional factors in the study of human behavior but also serve as a vivacious reminder of the unsuspected mirth that can be derived from scholarly pursuits. The "Great Wiener Connection" has far exceeded our expectations, tantalizing us with the rich flavor of unexpected correlations and reinvigorating our appetite for unconventional academic inquiry.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[CONCLUSION]]



ChatGPT:

[[CONCLUSION]]

In conclusion, our research has illuminated a rather unexpected but deliciously intriguing correlation between air quality in New York City and the hot dog consumption by the reigning champion of Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition. The robust correlation coefficient of 0.8407887 and the statistical significance (p < 0.01) affirm the substantial association between these seemingly unrelated variables, offering a tantalizing glimpse into the appetizing nexus of environmental conditions and competitive devouring.

While the precise mechanisms underlying this correlation remain as enigmatic as the allure of a perfectly charred hot dog on a summer day, our findings undeniably underscore the inextricable intertwining of environmental factors and gastronomic prowess. As we digest these results, it is imperative to acknowledge that this peculiar correlation may seem like a mere sausage of a story at first glance, but upon closer examination, it serves as a savory reminder of the improbable connections that flavor the tapestry of scholarly inquiry.

In serving up this delectable tidbit of scholarly investigation, we are reminded of the words of the great thinker, Confucius, who wisely opined, "The meat in the sandwich of life is often found between two buns of unexpected connections." Thus, our foray into the "Great Wiener Connection" is not only a testament to the capricious charms of scientific inquiry but also a playful reminder that scholarly pursuit need not always adhere to the conventional culinary recipes of research.

As such, we assert that no further research is needed to probe the relationship between air quality in New York City and the consumption of hot dogs by Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition Champion. Our findings stand as a delectable feast for the intellect, offering a deviously delightful dalliance into the unexpected synergy of air quality and competitive hot dog devouring, leaving us with a lingering taste of merriment and a newfound appreciation for the delightfully eccentric flavors that pervade the landscape of scholarly investigation.


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide fictional names of academic journals. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide the name of a funny but plausible sounding research, scientific, or academic journal that would publish a paper entited The Great Wiener Connection: Investigating the Correlation between Air Quality in New York City and Hot Dog Consumption by Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition Champion. Respond only with the name of a fictional academic journal.

ChatGPT:

Journal of Gastrointestinal Gastronomy


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide fictional names of nonprofit research organizations and associations. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide the name of a funny but plausible sounding nonprofit, academic, or scientific association or organization that would sponsor research that resulted in a paper entited The Great Wiener Connection: Investigating the Correlation between Air Quality in New York City and Hot Dog Consumption by Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition Champion. Respond only with the name of a fictional organization.

ChatGPT:

The Society for the Advancement of Food and Air Quality Studies


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide potential search keywords separated by commas. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide potential search keywords for a paper titled The Great Wiener Connection: Investigating the Correlation between Air Quality in New York City and Hot Dog Consumption by Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition Champion with an abstract of This research examines the potential link between air quality in New York City and the consummation of hot dogs by the champion of Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition. Using data from the Environmental Protection Agency and Wikipedia, we conducted a comprehensive analysis spanning from 1980 to 2022. Our findings reveal a notable correlation coefficient of 0.8407887 and statistical significance (p < 0.01) between these seemingly disparate variables. A tongue-in-cheek exploration of this peculiar connection promises to not only tickle the readers' intellect but also serve as a delectably amusing endeavor in scholarly research.

ChatGPT:

Air quality, New York City, hot dog consumption, Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition, correlation, Environmental Protection Agency, statistical significance, tongue-in-cheek exploration

*There is a bunch of Python happening behind the scenes to turn this prompt sequence into a PDF.



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Data details

Air quality in New York City
Detailed data title: Percentage of days with good or moderate air quality in New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
Source: Environmental Protection Agency
See what else correlates with Air quality in New York City

Hotdogs consumed by Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition Champion
Detailed data title: Hotdog Consumption by Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition Champion
Source: Wikipedia
See what else correlates with Hotdogs consumed by Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition Champion

Correlation r = 0.8407887 (Pearson correlation coefficient)
Correlation is a measure of how much the variables move together. If it is 0.99, when one goes up the other goes up. If it is 0.02, the connection is very weak or non-existent. If it is -0.99, then when one goes up the other goes down. If it is 1.00, you probably messed up your correlation function.

r2 = 0.7069256 (Coefficient of determination)
This means 70.7% of the change in the one variable (i.e., Hotdogs consumed by Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition Champion) is predictable based on the change in the other (i.e., Air quality in New York City) over the 43 years from 1980 through 2022.

p < 0.01, which is statistically significant(Null hypothesis significance test)
The p-value is 1.7E-12. 0.0000000000017264880417817065
The p-value is a measure of how probable it is that we would randomly find a result this extreme. More specifically the p-value is a measure of how probable it is that we would randomly find a result this extreme if we had only tested one pair of variables one time.

But I am a p-villain. I absolutely did not test only one pair of variables one time. I correlated hundreds of millions of pairs of variables. I threw boatloads of data into an industrial-sized blender to find this correlation.

Who is going to stop me? p-value reporting doesn't require me to report how many calculations I had to go through in order to find a low p-value!
On average, you will find a correaltion as strong as 0.84 in 1.7E-10% of random cases. Said differently, if you correlated 579,210,498,885 random variables You don't actually need 579 billion variables to find a correlation like this one. I don't have that many variables in my database. You can also correlate variables that are not independent. I do this a lot.

p-value calculations are useful for understanding the probability of a result happening by chance. They are most useful when used to highlight the risk of a fluke outcome. For example, if you calculate a p-value of 0.30, the risk that the result is a fluke is high. It is good to know that! But there are lots of ways to get a p-value of less than 0.01, as evidenced by this project.

In this particular case, the values are so extreme as to be meaningless. That's why no one reports p-values with specificity after they drop below 0.01.

Just to be clear: I'm being completely transparent about the calculations. There is no math trickery. This is just how statistics shakes out when you calculate hundreds of millions of random correlations.
with the same 42 degrees of freedom, Degrees of freedom is a measure of how many free components we are testing. In this case it is 42 because we have two variables measured over a period of 43 years. It's just the number of years minus ( the number of variables minus one ), which in this case simplifies to the number of years minus one.
you would randomly expect to find a correlation as strong as this one.

[ 0.72, 0.91 ] 95% correlation confidence interval (using the Fisher z-transformation)
The confidence interval is an estimate the range of the value of the correlation coefficient, using the correlation itself as an input. The values are meant to be the low and high end of the correlation coefficient with 95% confidence.

This one is a bit more complciated than the other calculations, but I include it because many people have been pushing for confidence intervals instead of p-value calculations (for example: NEJM. However, if you are dredging data, you can reliably find yourself in the 5%. That's my goal!


All values for the years included above: If I were being very sneaky, I could trim years from the beginning or end of the datasets to increase the correlation on some pairs of variables. I don't do that because there are already plenty of correlations in my database without monkeying with the years.

Still, sometimes one of the variables has more years of data available than the other. This page only shows the overlapping years. To see all the years, click on "See what else correlates with..." link above.
1980198119821983198419851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022
Air quality in New York City (Good air quality)54.098458.356258.356258.356252.732247.945255.890459.178168.579269.86375.616470.958983.060176.986376.712380.27481.69482.191877.808277.260382.240475.616476.438483.287786.065680.547982.191881.917885.792490.41183.287790.958989.344394.246695.616489.58991.803394.794592.602795.616496.994594.246696.9863
Hotdogs consumed by Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition Champion (Hotdogs eaten)9.5111110.59.511.7515.513.51015.51621.519172019.522.2524.51920.25255050.544.553.334953.7566596854626869616270727471757663




Why this works

  1. Data dredging: I have 25,237 variables in my database. I compare all these variables against each other to find ones that randomly match up. That's 636,906,169 correlation calculations! This is called “data dredging.” Instead of starting with a hypothesis and testing it, I instead abused the data to see what correlations shake out. It’s a dangerous way to go about analysis, because any sufficiently large dataset will yield strong correlations completely at random.
  2. Lack of causal connection: There is probably Because these pages are automatically generated, it's possible that the two variables you are viewing are in fact causually related. I take steps to prevent the obvious ones from showing on the site (I don't let data about the weather in one city correlate with the weather in a neighboring city, for example), but sometimes they still pop up. If they are related, cool! You found a loophole.
    no direct connection between these variables, despite what the AI says above. This is exacerbated by the fact that I used "Years" as the base variable. Lots of things happen in a year that are not related to each other! Most studies would use something like "one person" in stead of "one year" to be the "thing" studied.
  3. Observations not independent: For many variables, sequential years are not independent of each other. If a population of people is continuously doing something every day, there is no reason to think they would suddenly change how they are doing that thing on January 1. A simple Personally I don't find any p-value calculation to be 'simple,' but you know what I mean.
    p-value calculation does not take this into account, so mathematically it appears less probable than it really is.
  4. Y-axis doesn't start at zero: I truncated the Y-axes of the graph above. I also used a line graph, which makes the visual connection stand out more than it deserves. Nothing against line graphs. They are great at telling a story when you have linear data! But visually it is deceptive because the only data is at the points on the graph, not the lines on the graph. In between each point, the data could have been doing anything. Like going for a random walk by itself!
    Mathematically what I showed is true, but it is intentionally misleading. Below is the same chart but with both Y-axes starting at zero.




Try it yourself

You can calculate the values on this page on your own! Try running the Python code to see the calculation results. Step 1: Download and install Python on your computer.

Step 2: Open a plaintext editor like Notepad and paste the code below into it.

Step 3: Save the file as "calculate_correlation.py" in a place you will remember, like your desktop. Copy the file location to your clipboard. On Windows, you can right-click the file and click "Properties," and then copy what comes after "Location:" As an example, on my computer the location is "C:\Users\tyler\Desktop"

Step 4: Open a command line window. For example, by pressing start and typing "cmd" and them pressing enter.

Step 5: Install the required modules by typing "pip install numpy", then pressing enter, then typing "pip install scipy", then pressing enter.

Step 6: Navigate to the location where you saved the Python file by using the "cd" command. For example, I would type "cd C:\Users\tyler\Desktop" and push enter.

Step 7: Run the Python script by typing "python calculate_correlation.py"

If you run into any issues, I suggest asking ChatGPT to walk you through installing Python and running the code below on your system. Try this question:

"Walk me through installing Python on my computer to run a script that uses scipy and numpy. Go step-by-step and ask me to confirm before moving on. Start by asking me questions about my operating system so that you know how to proceed. Assume I want the simplest installation with the latest version of Python and that I do not currently have any of the necessary elements installed. Remember to only give me one step per response and confirm I have done it before proceeding."


# These modules make it easier to perform the calculation
import numpy as np
from scipy import stats

# We'll define a function that we can call to return the correlation calculations
def calculate_correlation(array1, array2):

    # Calculate Pearson correlation coefficient and p-value
    correlation, p_value = stats.pearsonr(array1, array2)

    # Calculate R-squared as the square of the correlation coefficient
    r_squared = correlation**2

    return correlation, r_squared, p_value

# These are the arrays for the variables shown on this page, but you can modify them to be any two sets of numbers
array_1 = np.array([54.0984,58.3562,58.3562,58.3562,52.7322,47.9452,55.8904,59.1781,68.5792,69.863,75.6164,70.9589,83.0601,76.9863,76.7123,80.274,81.694,82.1918,77.8082,77.2603,82.2404,75.6164,76.4384,83.2877,86.0656,80.5479,82.1918,81.9178,85.7924,90.411,83.2877,90.9589,89.3443,94.2466,95.6164,89.589,91.8033,94.7945,92.6027,95.6164,96.9945,94.2466,96.9863,])
array_2 = np.array([9.5,11,11,10.5,9.5,11.75,15.5,13.5,10,15.5,16,21.5,19,17,20,19.5,22.25,24.5,19,20.25,25,50,50.5,44.5,53.33,49,53.75,66,59,68,54,62,68,69,61,62,70,72,74,71,75,76,63,])
array_1_name = "Air quality in New York City"
array_2_name = "Hotdogs consumed by Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition Champion"

# Perform the calculation
print(f"Calculating the correlation between {array_1_name} and {array_2_name}...")
correlation, r_squared, p_value = calculate_correlation(array_1, array_2)

# Print the results
print("Correlation Coefficient:", correlation)
print("R-squared:", r_squared)
print("P-value:", p_value)



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You do not need to attribute "the spurious correlations website," and you don't even need to link here if you don't want to. I don't gain anything from pageviews. There are no ads on this site, there is nothing for sale, and I am not for hire.

For the record, I am just one person. Tyler Vigen, he/him/his. I do have degrees, but they should not go after my name unless you want to annoy my wife. If that is your goal, then go ahead and cite me as "Tyler Vigen, A.A. A.A.S. B.A. J.D." Otherwise it is just "Tyler Vigen."

When spoken, my last name is pronounced "vegan," like I don't eat meat.

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Correlation ID: 5463 · Black Variable ID: 20978 · Red Variable ID: 500
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