Spurious correlation #2,542 · View random
A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is Popularity of the first name Dario and the second variable is Sony Group's stock price (SONY). The chart goes from 2002 to 2022, and the two variables track closely in value over that time.

A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is Popularity of the first name Dario and the second variable is Sony Group's stock price (SONY). The chart goes from 2002 to 2022, and the two variables track closely in value over that time.

Download png, svg

AI explanation

The name Dario is derived from the Greek word for "upholder of the good." As more parents named their children Dario, a wave of morally upright individuals entered the workforce. This unintentional influx of ethical employees led to a significant boost in productivity and innovation at Sony Group, ultimately driving up the stock price. Remember, the next time you're investing in stocks, consider the Dario Effect - it's morally and financially uplifting!

^{Show image generation prompt} Model: dalle-3
Prompt: [ Cute cartoon ] In a vibrant nursery filled with joyful parents and their newborn babies, a couple is overheard happily choosing the name "Dario" for their son. In the background, a digital monitor proudly displays the stock prices for Sony Group, indicating a steady and significant upward trend. A serene glow emanates from a nearby Sony TV, catching the attention of the new parents as they nod in agreement. The peaceful ambiance of the "Dario" name may be subtly drawn to Sony products, marking a quiet but significant moment of success for the company. The depiction should include only scenes, people, and objects, it should not include text or speech bubbles.

This image generation prompt was also generated by AI, using the following sequence:

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You select one of a few potential scene descriptors that seems to go along with the variables described. You respond only with the scene descriptions provided and say nothing else.
User prompt: Here are two variables: Popularity of the first name Dario and Sony Group's stock price (SONY). Given these, which of the following image style descriptions seems most appropriate? Pick the one that seems to be related to one of the variables at hand. Please respond with only one of the following potential descriptions: Cybernetic art Psychedelic Cute cartoon Voxel art Macabre
ChatGPT: Cute cartoon

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You describe simple visual scenes that depict the two variables stated. You combine both variables into one scene.
User prompt: Please describe a visual scene that prominently depicts both Popularity of the first name Dario and Sony Group's stock price (SONY), in the following situation: Parents naming their kids Dario are subconsciously drawn to buy Sony products, leading to an increase in sales and ultimately boosting the company's stock price. Perhaps it's the soothing sound of "Dario" that brings to mind the serene hum of a Sony TV, or maybe it's just a "Dario" good choice for tech-savvy parents. This trend could certainly be seen as a "Dario" for success for Sony!. Keep the description simple.
ChatGPT: In a bustling nursery, a group of parents chats excitedly while holding their newborn babies. One couple is overheard discussing baby names, and they settle on "Dario" for their son. Meanwhile, in the background, the stock prices for Sony Group are displayed on a digital monitor, showing a steady and significant upward trend. The serene glow of a Sony TV in the corner seems to catch the eye of the new parents as they smile and nod in agreement – perhaps it's the soothing sound of "Dario" that subconsciously draws them to Sony products. This moment marks a quiet but significant "Dario" for success for Sony.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You write and improve image generation prompts for DALLE-3. You maintain the same subjects, but enhance the visuals.
User prompt: Please respond with an image generation prompt that would be likely to create an interesting visual using DALLE-3, using the following style: [ Cute cartoon ] and depicting this scene: In a bustling nursery, a group of parents chats excitedly while holding their newborn babies. One couple is overheard discussing baby names, and they settle on "Dario" for their son. Meanwhile, in the background, the stock prices for Sony Group are displayed on a digital monitor, showing a steady and significant upward trend. The serene glow of a Sony TV in the corner seems to catch the eye of the new parents as they smile and nod in agreement – perhaps it's the soothing sound of "Dario" that subconsciously draws them to Sony products. This moment marks a quiet but significant "Dario" for success for Sony. Keep the visual depiction simple. Do not include any words or speech bubbles.
ChatGPT: [ Cute cartoon ] In a vibrant nursery filled with joyful parents and their newborn babies, a couple is overheard happily choosing the name "Dario" for their son. In the background, a digital monitor proudly displays the stock prices for Sony Group, indicating a steady and significant upward trend. A serene glow emanates from a nearby Sony TV, catching the attention of the new parents as they nod in agreement. The peaceful ambiance of the "Dario" name may be subtly drawn to Sony products, marking a quiet but significant moment of success for the company.

*Variations in the User Prompts from chart to chart are just the result of random number generation in Python. I wrote a few arrays of various styles and methods to ask questions to change up the results. Every time this site writes an explanation or generates an image, the script picks from each at random.

I sequence the requests into multiple prompts because I find GPT 3.5 to perform much better with short, well-managed contexts. Thus, I track the context directly in Python and only ask ChatGPT targeted questions.
^{Show prompt for explanation} Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106 (fine-tuned)
System prompt: You provide humorous responses in the form of plausible sounding explanations for correlations. You assume the correlation is causative for the purpose of the explanation even if it is ridiculous. You do not chat with the user, you only reply with the causal connection explanation and nothing else.
User prompt: Please make up a funny explanation for how an increase in Popularity of the first name Dario caused Sony Group's stock price (SONY) to increase. Add a funny one-liner at the end.

AI academic paper

(Because p < 0.01)

Name Popularity and Stock Performance: Dario, I Shrunk the Stocks

Journal of Behavioral Finance and Economics

Jan 2024

Reminder: This paper is AI-generated. Not real!

^{Show prompt used to generate this paper} Quick note: This sequence is long and repetitive. That's how the prompt engineering works for this one. I manage the output in Python to format it into this PDF.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a goofy academic researcher writing an academic paper. You follow the rules, but you throw out convention regularly to make jokes and funny asides.You draft a literature review section of an academic research paper, that starts out dry for the first few sentences but then becomes hilarious and goofy.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up a literature review section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Popularity of the first name Dario and Sony Group's stock price (SONY). You can't resist a good dad joke. Add a relevant dad joke related to the content every couple of sentences.

Speak in the present tense for this section (the authors find...), as is common in academic research paper literature reviews. Name the sources in a format similar to this: In "Book," the authors find lorem and ipsum.

Make up the lorem and ipsum part, but make it sound related to the topic at hand.

Start by naming serious-sounding studies by authors like Smith, Doe, and Jones - but then quickly devolve. Name some real non-fiction books that would be related to the topic. Then name some real fiction books that sound like they could be related. Then devolve ever further, and mention something completely ridiculous, like you conducted literature review by reading CVS receipts.

Here is the title and abstract of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
"Name Popularity and Stock Performance: Dario, I Shrunk the Stocks"

[[ABSTRACT]]
The relationship between personal names and financial markets has been a topic of intrigue for both scholars and casual observers alike. In this study, we delve into the connection between the popularity of the first name Dario and the stock performance of the Sony Group (SONY) from 2002 to 2022. As we embark on this pun-tastic journey, we utilize data from the US Social Security Administration and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv) to analyze this quirkily fascinating phenomenon.

Our findings reveal a striking correlation coefficient of 0.9001322 and p < 0.01, indicating a strong statistical association between the frequency of the name Dario and the stock price of Sony Group. We couldn't "name-drop" this jaw-dropping correlation without a smattering of dad jokes, now could we?

The implications of our research extend beyond the realm of mere coincidence, highlighting the nuances of human psychology and its potential influence on financial markets. As we eagerly await further research in this area, we encourage both investors and baby namers to consider the unexpected connection between the name Dario and SONY stock prices. Remember, when it comes to stocks and names, it's all fun and gains!

-------

And here is the introduction section that led to this literature review:
[[INTRODUCTION]]
In the realm of finance, where numbers and analytics reign supreme, the notion of a connection between a person's name and stock performance may seem whimsical at best. However, as we embark on this whimsical journey through the correlation between the popularity of the first name Dario and the stock performance of Sony Group, we invite the reader to indulge in a bit of speculative humor. After all, what's a research paper without a dash of pun-induced levity?
You may have heard of the saying, "What's in a name?" Well, as we dig deeper into the world of finance and nomenclature, it seems that there might be more than meets the eye. Don't worry, folks - we promise our findings won't be as "stock" as some of those dad jokes your uncle keeps telling at family gatherings.
As we ponder the intricacies of this unusual relationship between a name and stock prices, it's clear that this research delves into uncharted territory. But fear not, dear reader, for we are equipped with an arsenal of statistical analysis and a sprinkle of lightheartedness to guide us through. And really, isn't that what the world needs? More puns, more stats, and more unexpected connections in the world of finance!

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]

ChatGPT:
[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]

As we wade through the sea of research on the association between personal names and financial indicators, we cannot ignore the potential implications of the name Dario on the stock performance of the Sony Group. Our pursuit of scholarly wisdom commences with Smith et al.'s analysis of the socio-economic impact of nomenclature in their seminal work, "The Significance of Names in Modern Society." The authors find a marked correlation between the popularity of certain names and societal trends, but alas, the stock market remains uncharted terrain in their exploration.

Speaking of uncharted terrain, did you hear about the market analyst who got lost in the forest? He was trying to find his bear-ings, but all he discovered were bull markets!

Moving on to more nuanced perspectives, Doe's comprehensive study in "Naming and Behavior: A Multidisciplinary Approach" sheds light on the psychological resonance of names and their influence on individual behavior. However, while Doe illuminates the impact of names on consumer choices, the intersection with stock performance remains an unexplored enigma.

In the world of non-fiction, we encounter intriguing insights from books such as "Freakonomics: A Rogue Economist Explores the Hidden Side of Everything" by Dubner and Levitt, where unconventional associations between seemingly unrelated phenomena are unraveled. Could it be that Dario's rise to prominence coincides with SONY's upward trajectory, or is this just another statistical anomaly waiting to be debunked?

In a departure from the expected, even fiction books offer tantalizing speculations. Melanie Benjamin's "The Aviator's Wife" and its exploration of the mystique surrounding the name Dario hints at the allure of names in shaping destinies, but little does it delve into the impact on stock market dynamics. Of course, if we're talking about fictional names and finance, let's not forget J.K. Rowling's "Harry Potter" series, where the mere mention of "Gringotts Bank" may spark some magical associations with stock trading. But I assure you, dear reader, our exploration of Dario and SONY stock is firmly rooted in the muggle world of empirical analysis.

And now, for a touch of whimsy in our literature review, an unexpected turn - what if I told you that while perusing the CVS receipts of weary shoppers, we stumbled upon a pattern of correlation between the purchase of Dario's Delightful Diapers and the stock prices of SONY? As absurd as it may sound, this anecdotal evidence cannot be disregarded in our quest for comedic relief amidst the rigors of academia.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a goofy academic researcher writing an academic paper. You follow the rules, but you throw out convention regularly to make jokes and funny asides.You draft the methodology section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the methodology section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Popularity of the first name Dario and Sony Group's stock price (SONY). You can't resist a good dad joke. Add a relevant dad joke related to the content every couple of sentences.

Your research team collected data from all across the internet, but mostly just used information from US Social Security Administration and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv) . You used data from 2002 to 2022

Make up the research methods you don't know. Make them a bit goofy and convoluted.

Here is the title, abstract, and introduction of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
"Name Popularity and Stock Performance: Dario, I Shrunk the Stocks"

[[ABSTRACT]]
The relationship between personal names and financial markets has been a topic of intrigue for both scholars and casual observers alike. In this study, we delve into the connection between the popularity of the first name Dario and the stock performance of the Sony Group (SONY) from 2002 to 2022. As we embark on this pun-tastic journey, we utilize data from the US Social Security Administration and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv) to analyze this quirkily fascinating phenomenon.

Our findings reveal a striking correlation coefficient of 0.9001322 and p < 0.01, indicating a strong statistical association between the frequency of the name Dario and the stock price of Sony Group. We couldn't "name-drop" this jaw-dropping correlation without a smattering of dad jokes, now could we?

The implications of our research extend beyond the realm of mere coincidence, highlighting the nuances of human psychology and its potential influence on financial markets. As we eagerly await further research in this area, we encourage both investors and baby namers to consider the unexpected connection between the name Dario and SONY stock prices. Remember, when it comes to stocks and names, it's all fun and gains!

[[INTRODUCTION]]
In the realm of finance, where numbers and analytics reign supreme, the notion of a connection between a person's name and stock performance may seem whimsical at best. However, as we embark on this whimsical journey through the correlation between the popularity of the first name Dario and the stock performance of Sony Group, we invite the reader to indulge in a bit of speculative humor. After all, what's a research paper without a dash of pun-induced levity?
You may have heard of the saying, "What's in a name?" Well, as we dig deeper into the world of finance and nomenclature, it seems that there might be more than meets the eye. Don't worry, folks - we promise our findings won't be as "stock" as some of those dad jokes your uncle keeps telling at family gatherings.
As we ponder the intricacies of this unusual relationship between a name and stock prices, it's clear that this research delves into uncharted territory. But fear not, dear reader, for we are equipped with an arsenal of statistical analysis and a sprinkle of lightheartedness to guide us through. And really, isn't that what the world needs? More puns, more stats, and more unexpected connections in the world of finance!

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[METHODOLOGY]]

ChatGPT:

[[METHODOLOGY]]

To unravel the mysterious connection between the first name Dario and the stock performance of Sony Group, we embarked on a research journey that involved a unique blend of statistical analysis and a pinch of whimsy. Our data collection process resembled a fine blend of Sherlock Holmes' detective work and a stand-up comedian's penchant for wordplay.

First, we gathered data on the frequency of the name Dario from the US Social Security Administration, covering the years 2002 to 2022. Our intrepid team navigated the labyrinthine depths of government databases, sifting through countless entries with the determination of a prospector seeking gold. We also procured stock price data for Sony Group (SONY) from LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv), embracing the eclectic world of financial markets with the zeal of a collector braving a flea market on a Sunday morning.

Now, let's address the elephant in the room - why Dario? Well, aside from the name exuding an inexplicable aura of charm and charisma, its relatively lower frequency in the general population provided a unique opportunity to analyze its impact on SONY stock prices. Plus, with a name like Dario, it's hard not to be swayed by its melodious ring. Speaking of which, did you hear about the musician named Dario? His songs are chart-toppers, and as it turns out, his name might impact stock charts as well!

With the raw data in hand, we performed rigorous statistical analyses, including correlation tests and time series modeling. Our goal was to ferret out any semblance of a link between the ebb and flow of Darios in the world and the fluctuations in SONY stock prices. It was like performing a delicate ballet - a pas de deux between quantitative analysis and the melodic symphony of nomenclature. And just like any good ballet, it had its fair share of dramatic twists and turns.

In addition to the quantitative analyses, we also delved into qualitative assessments, exploring the cultural and psychological factors that could potentially imbue the name Dario with an unforeseen influence on market sentiment. This part of the research was akin to peering into the looking glass and catching a glimpse of the whimsical interplay between human behavior and financial phenomena. It's like trying to predict the next market trend by reading tea leaves, with a dash of statistical rigor for good measure.

Lastly, we employed sophisticated machine learning algorithms to uncover hidden patterns and anomalies, leveraging the power of artificial intelligence to sift through the vast sea of data and extract nuggets of insight. It's like having a highly-trained assistant who specializes in uncovering the unexpected - a Sherlock Holmes for the digital age, if you will.

In summary, our methodology blended the precision of statistical analysis with the charm of quirky nomenclature, creating a concoction that's part science, part serendipity, and undeniably intriguing. As we approach the findings, remember - when it comes to researching the connection between names and stocks, it's all about striking the right chord between serious analysis and lighthearted exploration.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a goofy academic researcher writing an academic paper. You follow the rules, but you throw out convention regularly to make jokes and funny asides.You draft the discussion section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the discussion section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Popularity of the first name Dario and Sony Group's stock price (SONY). You can't resist a good dad joke. Add a relevant dad joke related to the content every couple of sentences.

Limit your response to 500 tokens.

Here are the title, abstract, literature review, and results sections. Please harken back to 1-2 of the goofy items in the literature review, but pretend to take them completely seriously. Discuss how your results supported the prior research.

Do not write a conclusion. I will add a conclusion after this.

[[TITLE]]
"Name Popularity and Stock Performance: Dario, I Shrunk the Stocks"

[[ABSTRACT]]
The relationship between personal names and financial markets has been a topic of intrigue for both scholars and casual observers alike. In this study, we delve into the connection between the popularity of the first name Dario and the stock performance of the Sony Group (SONY) from 2002 to 2022. As we embark on this pun-tastic journey, we utilize data from the US Social Security Administration and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv) to analyze this quirkily fascinating phenomenon.

Our findings reveal a striking correlation coefficient of 0.9001322 and p < 0.01, indicating a strong statistical association between the frequency of the name Dario and the stock price of Sony Group. We couldn't "name-drop" this jaw-dropping correlation without a smattering of dad jokes, now could we?

The implications of our research extend beyond the realm of mere coincidence, highlighting the nuances of human psychology and its potential influence on financial markets. As we eagerly await further research in this area, we encourage both investors and baby namers to consider the unexpected connection between the name Dario and SONY stock prices. Remember, when it comes to stocks and names, it's all fun and gains!

[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]
As we wade through the sea of research on the association between personal names and financial indicators, we cannot ignore the potential implications of the name Dario on the stock performance of the Sony Group. Our pursuit of scholarly wisdom commences with Smith et al.'s analysis of the socio-economic impact of nomenclature in their seminal work, "The Significance of Names in Modern Society." The authors find a marked correlation between the popularity of certain names and societal trends, but alas, the stock market remains uncharted terrain in their exploration.
Speaking of uncharted terrain, did you hear about the market analyst who got lost in the forest? He was trying to find his bear-ings, but all he discovered were bull markets!
Moving on to more nuanced perspectives, Doe's comprehensive study in "Naming and Behavior: A Multidisciplinary Approach" sheds light on the psychological resonance of names and their influence on individual behavior. However, while Doe illuminates the impact of names on consumer choices, the intersection with stock performance remains an unexplored enigma.
In the world of non-fiction, we encounter intriguing insights from books such as "Freakonomics: A Rogue Economist Explores the Hidden Side of Everything" by Dubner and Levitt, where unconventional associations between seemingly unrelated phenomena are unraveled. Could it be that Dario's rise to prominence coincides with SONY's upward trajectory, or is this just another statistical anomaly waiting to be debunked?
In a departure from the expected, even fiction books offer tantalizing speculations. Melanie Benjamin's "The Aviator's Wife" and its exploration of the mystique surrounding the name Dario hints at the allure of names in shaping destinies, but little does it delve into the impact on stock market dynamics. Of course, if we're talking about fictional names and finance, let's not forget J.K. Rowling's "Harry Potter" series, where the mere mention of "Gringotts Bank" may spark some magical associations with stock trading. But I assure you, dear reader, our exploration of Dario and SONY stock is firmly rooted in the muggle world of empirical analysis.
And now, for a touch of whimsy in our literature review, an unexpected turn - what if I told you that while perusing the CVS receipts of weary shoppers, we stumbled upon a pattern of correlation between the purchase of Dario's Delightful Diapers and the stock prices of SONY? As absurd as it may sound, this anecdotal evidence cannot be disregarded in our quest for comedic relief amidst the rigors of academia.

[[RESULTS]]
The analysis of the relationship between the prevalence of the first name Dario and the stock performance of Sony Group (SONY) from 2002 to 2022 revealed a remarkably high correlation coefficient of 0.9001322, where r-squared equaled 0.8102380, and p < 0.01. This statistical evidence suggests a robust and significant association between the frequency of the name Dario and the stock price of Sony Group. It seems that Dario's popularity might just be a "Sony" predictor of stock performance - pardon the pun; I couldn't resist!
The scatterplot in Fig. 1 further reinforces the strong correlation between the variables, depicting a trend that would make both statisticians and baby namers do a double-take. The data points form a clear upward trajectory, reminiscent of a stock market rally, coinciding with the frequency of the name Dario. It's almost as if the stock prices are chanting, "Dario, we're going higher!"
This unexpected connection between a personal name and stock prices not only adds an element of whimsy to the world of finance but also underscores the intricate interplay between human behavior and market dynamics. One cannot help but wonder: could the influence of a name go beyond personal identity and extend to the very fabric of financial markets? Perhaps Dario isn't just a popular name among parents but also among stock market enthusiasts. Who knew that a simple name could hold so much "stock" in the financial world?

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[DISCUSSION]]

ChatGPT:

[[DISCUSSION]]

Our findings have uncovered a remarkably robust and significant association between the popularity of the name Dario and the stock price of Sony Group (SONY) from 2002 to 2022. It seems that the name Dario may have more sway in the market than one might expect - after all, it’s a “stocky” affair! The striking correlation coefficient of 0.9001322 and p < 0.01 goes to show that Dario isn't just a popular name among parents; it might very well be a favorite among stock market aficionados as well. It seems as though investors can no longer "Dario" their interest in this quirky connection!

Given the compelling statistical evidence, our findings resonate with prior research that has delved into the influence of names on various societal indicators. Indeed, the resonance of the name Dario has extended beyond personal identity and lifestyle choices, making a surprising foray into the realm of stock market dynamics. As Smith et al. alluded to in their exploration of the significance of names in modern society, our study adds a new dimension to the socio-economic impact of nomenclature, forging a path where no researcher dared to Dario before.

Doe's multidisciplinary approach to naming and behavior also finds validation in our results, underscoring the psychological weight that names carry within market dynamics. It seems that the name Dario isn't just a “SONY” sidenote in the grand scheme of stock performance; it’s a significant driver that investors may need to take into account. Who would have thought that a name could wield such power on the trading floor? It's almost as if Dario is taking the lead in the stock market race, leaving investors to wonder: is this the rise of the Dario Effect?

Even in the realm of fiction, where we might seek solace in the extraordinary, the unexpected discovery of this correlation between a personal name and stock performance adds a touch of magic that rivals the tales of Gringotts Bank. Who would have thought that the name Dario, once a mere protagonist in fictional narratives, could become a protagonist of stock market trends as well? It just goes to show that reality can often outdo fiction with its quirks and surprises, leaving us all to ponder the whimsical dance of human psychology and market behaviors.

As our study sparks further contemplation on the influence of names on financial markets, it prompts us to consider the myriad ways in which seemingly inconsequential factors can play a substantial role in market dynamics. Perhaps the next time you're analyzing stock performance, you might just find yourself pondering, "What's in a name?" - especially if that name happens to be Dario.

Ah, the peculiar mysteries of the market – who knew that a name could carry such "stocky" implications?

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide fictional names of academic journals. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide the name of a funny but plausible sounding research, scientific, or academic journal that would publish a paper entited Name Popularity and Stock Performance: Dario, I Shrunk the Stocks. Respond only with the name of a fictional academic journal.

ChatGPT:

Journal of Behavioral Finance and Economics

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide fictional names of nonprofit research organizations and associations. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide the name of a funny but plausible sounding nonprofit, academic, or scientific association or organization that would sponsor research that resulted in a paper entited Name Popularity and Stock Performance: Dario, I Shrunk the Stocks. Respond only with the name of a fictional organization.

ChatGPT:

The Society for Quantitative Studies in Popular Names and Financial Markets

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide potential search keywords separated by commas. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide potential search keywords for a paper titled Name Popularity and Stock Performance: Dario, I Shrunk the Stocks with an abstract of The relationship between personal names and financial markets has been a topic of intrigue for both scholars and casual observers alike. In this study, we delve into the connection between the popularity of the first name Dario and the stock performance of the Sony Group (SONY) from 2002 to 2022. As we embark on this pun-tastic journey, we utilize data from the US Social Security Administration and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv) to analyze this quirkily fascinating phenomenon.
Our findings reveal a striking correlation coefficient of 0.9001322 and p < 0.01, indicating a strong statistical association between the frequency of the name Dario and the stock price of Sony Group. We couldn't "name-drop" this jaw-dropping correlation without a smattering of dad jokes, now could we?
The implications of our research extend beyond the realm of mere coincidence, highlighting the nuances of human psychology and its potential influence on financial markets. As we eagerly await further research in this area, we encourage both investors and baby namers to consider the unexpected connection between the name Dario and SONY stock prices. Remember, when it comes to stocks and names, it's all fun and gains!

ChatGPT:

Dario, stock performance, name popularity, correlation coefficient, Sony Group, SONY stock, financial markets, human psychology, US Social Security Administration, LSEG Analytics, Refinitiv, coincidence, influence, baby names, investors, statistical association

*There is a bunch of Python happening behind the scenes to turn this prompt sequence into a PDF.

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Data details

Popularity of the first name Dario
Detailed data title: Babies of all sexes born in the US named Dario
Source: US Social Security Administration
See what else correlates with Popularity of the first name Dario

Sony Group's stock price (SONY)
Detailed data title: Opening price of Sony Group (SONY) on the first trading day of the year
Source: LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv)
Additional Info: ^{See full details} Via Microsoft Excel Stockhistory function

See what else correlates with Sony Group's stock price (SONY)

Correlation r = 0.9001322 (Pearson correlation coefficient)
Correlation is a measure of how much the variables move together. If it is 0.99, when one goes up the other goes up. If it is 0.02, the connection is very weak or non-existent. If it is -0.99, then when one goes up the other goes down. If it is 1.00, you probably messed up your correlation function.

r² = 0.8102380 (Coefficient of determination)
This means 81% of the change in the one variable (i.e., Sony Group's stock price (SONY)) is predictable based on the change in the other (i.e., Popularity of the first name Dario) over the 21 years from 2002 through 2022.

p < 0.01, which is statistically significant(Null hypothesis significance test)
The p-value is 2.8E-8.^Show 0.0000000275934341610555170000
The p-value is a measure of how probable it is that we would randomly find a result this extreme.^Note More specifically the p-value is a measure of how probable it is that we would randomly find a result this extreme if we had only tested one pair of variables one time.

But I am a p-villain. I absolutely did not test only one pair of variables one time. I correlated hundreds of millions of pairs of variables. I threw boatloads of data into an industrial-sized blender to find this correlation.

Who is going to stop me? p-value reporting doesn't require me to report how many calculations I had to go through in order to find a low p-value!
On average, you will find a correaltion as strong as 0.9 in 2.8E-6% of random cases. Said differently, if you correlated 36,240,505 random variables^Note You don't actually need 36 million variables to find a correlation like this one. I don't have that many variables in my database. You can also correlate variables that are not independent. I do this a lot.

p-value calculations are useful for understanding the probability of a result happening by chance. They are most useful when used to highlight the risk of a fluke outcome. For example, if you calculate a p-value of 0.30, the risk that the result is a fluke is high. It is good to know that! But there are lots of ways to get a p-value of less than 0.01, as evidenced by this project.

In this particular case, the values are so extreme as to be meaningless. That's why no one reports p-values with specificity after they drop below 0.01.

Just to be clear: I'm being completely transparent about the calculations. There is no math trickery. This is just how statistics shakes out when you calculate hundreds of millions of random correlations.
with the same 20 degrees of freedom, ^Note Degrees of freedom is a measure of how many free components we are testing. In this case it is 20 because we have two variables measured over a period of 21 years. It's just the number of years minus ( the number of variables minus one ), which in this case simplifies to the number of years minus one.
you would randomly expect to find a correlation as strong as this one.

[ 0.77, 0.96 ] 95% correlation confidence interval (using the Fisher z-transformation)
^{Read more about the confidence interval} The confidence interval is an estimate the range of the value of the correlation coefficient, using the correlation itself as an input. The values are meant to be the low and high end of the correlation coefficient with 95% confidence.

This one is a bit more complciated than the other calculations, but I include it because many people have been pushing for confidence intervals instead of p-value calculations (for example: NEJM. However, if you are dredging data, you can reliably find yourself in the 5%. That's my goal!

All values for the years included above: ^Note If I were being very sneaky, I could trim years from the beginning or end of the datasets to increase the correlation on some pairs of variables. I don't do that because there are already plenty of correlations in my database without monkeying with the years.

Still, sometimes one of the variables has more years of data available than the other. This page only shows the overlapping years. To see all the years, click on "See what else correlates with..." link above.

	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
Popularity of the first name Dario (Babies born)	195	209	208	215	223	249	252	229	212	235	226	199	215	234	223	245	265	232	281	389	402
Sony Group's stock price (SONY) (Stock price)	45.35	41.42	34.89	38.96	41.25	42.9	54.3	21.8	29.52	36.17	18.28	11.46	17.33	20.47	24.45	28.1	45.44	47.57	68.3	101.5	126.4

Why this works

Data dredging: I have 25,153 variables in my database. I compare all these variables against each other to find ones that randomly match up. That's 632,673,409 correlation calculations! This is called “data dredging.” Instead of starting with a hypothesis and testing it, I instead abused the data to see what correlations shake out. It’s a dangerous way to go about analysis, because any sufficiently large dataset will yield strong correlations completely at random.
Lack of causal connection: There is probably^Note Because these pages are automatically generated, it's possible that the two variables you are viewing are in fact causually related. I take steps to prevent the obvious ones from showing on the site (I don't let data about the weather in one city correlate with the weather in a neighboring city, for example), but sometimes they still pop up. If they are related, cool! You found a loophole.
no direct connection between these variables, despite what the AI says above. This is exacerbated by the fact that I used "Years" as the base variable. Lots of things happen in a year that are not related to each other! Most studies would use something like "one person" in stead of "one year" to be the "thing" studied.
Observations not independent: For many variables, sequential years are not independent of each other. If a population of people is continuously doing something every day, there is no reason to think they would suddenly change how they are doing that thing on January 1. A simple^Note Personally I don't find any p-value calculation to be 'simple,' but you know what I mean.
p-value calculation does not take this into account, so mathematically it appears less probable than it really is.
Y-axis doesn't start at zero: I truncated the Y-axes of the graph above. I also used a line graph, which makes the visual connection stand out more than it deserves. ^Note Nothing against line graphs. They are great at telling a story when you have linear data! But visually it is deceptive because the only data is at the points on the graph, not the lines on the graph. In between each point, the data could have been doing anything. Like going for a random walk by itself!
Mathematically what I showed is true, but it is intentionally misleading. Below is the same chart but with both Y-axes starting at zero.

Try it yourself

You can calculate the values on this page on your own! Try running the Python code to see the calculation results. ^{Show the steps to do this.} Step 1: Download and install Python on your computer.

Step 2: Open a plaintext editor like Notepad and paste the code below into it.

Step 3: Save the file as "calculate_correlation.py" in a place you will remember, like your desktop. Copy the file location to your clipboard. On Windows, you can right-click the file and click "Properties," and then copy what comes after "Location:" As an example, on my computer the location is "C:\Users\tyler\Desktop"

Step 4: Open a command line window. For example, by pressing start and typing "cmd" and them pressing enter.

Step 5: Install the required modules by typing "pip install numpy", then pressing enter, then typing "pip install scipy", then pressing enter.

Step 6: Navigate to the location where you saved the Python file by using the "cd" command. For example, I would type "cd C:\Users\tyler\Desktop" and push enter.

Step 7: Run the Python script by typing "python calculate_correlation.py"

If you run into any issues, I suggest asking ChatGPT to walk you through installing Python and running the code below on your system. Try this question:

"Walk me through installing Python on my computer to run a script that uses scipy and numpy. Go step-by-step and ask me to confirm before moving on. Start by asking me questions about my operating system so that you know how to proceed. Assume I want the simplest installation with the latest version of Python and that I do not currently have any of the necessary elements installed. Remember to only give me one step per response and confirm I have done it before proceeding."

# These modules make it easier to perform the calculation
import numpy as np
from scipy import stats

# We'll define a function that we can call to return the correlation calculations
def calculate_correlation(array1, array2):

    # Calculate Pearson correlation coefficient and p-value
    correlation, p_value = stats.pearsonr(array1, array2)

    # Calculate R-squared as the square of the correlation coefficient
    r_squared = correlation**2

    return correlation, r_squared, p_value

# These are the arrays for the variables shown on this page, but you can modify them to be any two sets of numbers
array_1 = np.array([195,209,208,215,223,249,252,229,212,235,226,199,215,234,223,245,265,232,281,389,402,])
array_2 = np.array([45.35,41.42,34.89,38.96,41.25,42.9,54.3,21.8,29.52,36.17,18.28,11.46,17.33,20.47,24.45,28.1,45.44,47.57,68.3,101.5,126.4,])
array_1_name = "Popularity of the first name Dario"
array_2_name = "Sony Group's stock price (SONY)"

# Perform the calculation
print(f"Calculating the correlation between {array_1_name} and {array_2_name}...")
correlation, r_squared, p_value = calculate_correlation(array_1, array_2)

# Print the results
print("Correlation Coefficient:", correlation)
print("R-squared:", r_squared)
print("P-value:", p_value)

Reuseable content

You may re-use the images on this page for any purpose, even commercial purposes, without asking for permission. The only requirement is that you attribute Tyler Vigen. ^Note Attribution can take many different forms. If you leave the "tylervigen.com" link in the image, that satisfies it just fine. If you remove it and move it to a footnote, that's fine too. You can also just write "Charts courtesy of Tyler Vigen" at the bottom of an article.

You do not need to attribute "the spurious correlations website," and you don't even need to link here if you don't want to. I don't gain anything from pageviews. There are no ads on this site, there is nothing for sale, and I am not for hire.

For the record, I am just one person. Tyler Vigen, he/him/his. I do have degrees, but they should not go after my name unless you want to annoy my wife. If that is your goal, then go ahead and cite me as "Tyler Vigen, A.A. A.A.S. B.A. J.D." Otherwise it is just "Tyler Vigen."

When spoken, my last name is pronounced "vegan," like I don't eat meat.

Full license details.
For more on re-use permissions, or to get a signed release form, see tylervigen.com/permission.

Download images for these variables:

High resolution line chart ^Note The image linked here is a Scalable Vector Graphic (SVG). It is the highest resolution that is possible to achieve. It scales up beyond the size of the observable universe without pixelating. You do not need to email me asking if I have a higher resolution image. I do not. The physical limitations of our universe prevent me from providing you with an image that is any higher resolution than this one.

If you insert it into a PowerPoint presentation (a tool well-known for managing things that are the scale of the universe), you can right-click > "Ungroup" or "Create Shape" and then edit the lines and text directly. You can also change the colors this way.

Alternatively you can use a tool like Inkscape.
High resolution line chart, optimized for mobile
Alternative high resolution line chart
Scatterplot
Portable line chart (png)
Portable line chart (png), optimized for mobile
Line chart for only Popularity of the first name Dario
Line chart for only Sony Group's stock price (SONY)
AI-generated correlation image
The spurious research paper: Name Popularity and Stock Performance: Dario, I Shrunk the Stocks

View another random correlation

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Correlation ID: 2542 · Black Variable ID: 4204 · Red Variable ID: 1633


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