Spurious correlation #1,419 · View random
A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is Popularity of the first name Bailey and the second variable is Ticket sales for Cleveland Guardians games. The chart goes from 1975 to 2019, and the two variables track closely in value over that time.

A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is Popularity of the first name Bailey and the second variable is Ticket sales for Cleveland Guardians games. The chart goes from 1975 to 2019, and the two variables track closely in value over that time.

Download png, svg

AI explanation

Every time the name "Bailey" became popular, a new wave of parents named their children after the beloved mascot, creating a surge in young Cleveland Guardians fans. This led to increased demand for tickets and ultimately boosted ticket sales for the games.

^{Show image generation prompt} Model: dalle-3
Prompt: Generate an image that resembles a Discovery magazine cover featuring a crowded baseball stadium. In the scene, a sea of fans wearing jerseys with the name "Bailey" fills the stands. Additionally, an electronic billboard within the stadium displays a digital counter showing the soaring ticket sales for Cleveland Guardians games. The visual should be vibrant and dynamic, capturing the excitement of a bustling sports event. The depiction should include only scenes, people, and objects, it should not include text or speech bubbles.

This image generation prompt was also generated by AI, using the following sequence:

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You select one of a few potential scene descriptors that seems to go along with the variables described. You respond only with the scene descriptions provided and say nothing else.
User prompt: Here are two variables: Popularity of the first name Bailey and Ticket sales for Cleveland Guardians games. Given these, which of the following image style descriptions seems most appropriate? Pick the one that seems to be related to one of the variables at hand. Please respond with only one of the following potential descriptions: Concept art A Discovery magazine cover image Psychedelic Symbolism Cyber folk
ChatGPT: A Discovery magazine cover image

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You describe simple visual scenes that depict the two variables stated. You combine both variables into one scene.
User prompt: Please describe a visual scene that prominently depicts both Popularity of the first name Bailey and Ticket sales for Cleveland Guardians games together. Keep the description simple.
ChatGPT: In a crowded baseball stadium, a sea of fans wearing jerseys with the name "Bailey" fills the stands. Meanwhile, a large electronic billboard displays a digital counter showing the soaring ticket sales for Cleveland Guardians games.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You write and improve image generation prompts for DALLE-3. You maintain the same subjects, but enhance the visuals.
User prompt: Please respond with an image generation prompt that would be likely to create an interesting visual using DALLE-3, using the following style: [ A Discovery magazine cover image ] and depicting this scene: In a crowded baseball stadium, a sea of fans wearing jerseys with the name "Bailey" fills the stands. Meanwhile, a large electronic billboard displays a digital counter showing the soaring ticket sales for Cleveland Guardians games. Keep the visual depiction simple. Do not include any words or speech bubbles.
ChatGPT: Generate an image that resembles a Discovery magazine cover featuring a crowded baseball stadium. In the scene, a sea of fans wearing jerseys with the name "Bailey" fills the stands. Additionally, an electronic billboard within the stadium displays a digital counter showing the soaring ticket sales for Cleveland Guardians games. The visual should be vibrant and dynamic, capturing the excitement of a bustling sports event.

*Variations in the User Prompts from chart to chart are just the result of random number generation in Python. I wrote a few arrays of various styles and methods to ask questions to change up the results. Every time this site writes an explanation or generates an image, the script picks from each at random.

I sequence the requests into multiple prompts because I find GPT 3.5 to perform much better with short, well-managed contexts. Thus, I track the context directly in Python and only ask ChatGPT targeted questions.
^{Show prompt for explanation} Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106 (fine-tuned)
System prompt: You provide humerus responses in the form of plausible sounding explanations for correlations. You assume the correlation is causative for the purpose of the explanation even if it is ridiculous. You do not chat with the user, you only reply with the causal connection explanation and nothing else.
User prompt: Please make up a funny explanation for how changes in Popularity of the first name Bailey caused Ticket sales for Cleveland Guardians games.

AI academic paper

(Because p < 0.01)

The Ballad of Bailey: A Name's Impact on Cleveland Guardians Game Attendance

The Journal of Quirky Anthropological Studies

Jan 2024

Reminder: This paper is AI-generated. Not real!

^{Show prompt used to generate this paper} Quick note: This sequence is long and repetitive. That's how the prompt engineering works for this one. I manage the output in Python to format it into this PDF.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a goofy academic researcher writing an academic paper. You follow the rules, but you throw out convention regularly to make jokes and funny asides.You draft a literature review section of an academic research paper, that starts out dry for the first few sentences but then becomes hilarious and goofy.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up a literature review section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Popularity of the first name Bailey and Ticket sales for Cleveland Guardians games. Make it seem dry like academic research paper, but with lots of subtle hidden offhand remarks, jokes, goofy observations, and puns.

Speak in the present tense for this section (the authors find...), as is common in academic research paper literature reviews. Name the sources in a format similar to this: In "Book," the authors find lorem and ipsum.

Make up the lorem and ipsum part, but make it sound related to the topic at hand.

Start by naming serious-sounding studies by authors like Smith, Doe, and Jones - but then quickly devolve. Name some real non-fiction books that would be related to the topic. Then name some real fiction books that sound like they could be related. Perhaps you also got inspiration from some board games that are vaugely related.

Here is the title and abstract of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
The Ballad of Bailey: A Name's Impact on Cleveland Guardians Game Attendance

[[ABSTRACT]]
In this study, we explore the often overlooked relationship between the popularity of the first name "Bailey" and ticket sales for Cleveland Guardians games. Drawing upon data from the US Social Security Administration and Baseball-Reference.com spanning the years 1975 to 2019, we conducted a thorough analysis to determine the extent of this connection. Our findings revealed a remarkably high correlation coefficient of 0.9257760, with a p-value of less than 0.01, suggesting a strong statistical significance. This unexpected correlation grants us insight into the curious influence of a name on sports attendance, shedding light on the peculiar interplay between nomenclature and fandom. With tongue firmly in cheek, we present these findings for both scholarly consideration and the pure amusement of uncovering such an offbeat association.

-------

And here is the introduction section that led to this literature review:
[[INTRODUCTION]]
Introduction
The study of human behavior has long captured the interest of researchers across various disciplines. As researchers, we strive to unravel the enigmatic, often bewildering factors that influence human decisions. In the realm of sports attendance, numerous factors have been scrutinized, from team performance to weather conditions, promotional activities to bobblehead giveaways. However, we embark on a journey to explore a variable that has eluded the spotlight until now - the impact of a first name on attendance at Cleveland Guardians games. Specifically, we focus our attention on the captivating tale of the name "Bailey" and its unique association with ticket sales.
While some may dub our examination as whimsical or trivial, our findings promise to uncover an unexpected and, dare we say, delightful connection between nomenclature and ticket purchases. By delving into data from the US Social Security Administration and Baseball-Reference.com, which spans decades of Cleveland Guardians games and the ebb and flow of "Bailey" popularity, we aim to shed light on this peculiar correlation.
One cannot help but marvel at the peculiarities of human behavior and the idiosyncrasies that lie beneath the surface of seemingly mundane phenomena. The allure of this study lies not only in its statistical implications but also in the sheer amusement of unraveling a most improbable relationship between a name and sports attendance.
With a touch of whimsy and a dash of statistical rigor, we present our investigation into "The Ballad of Bailey" for the scholarly community to ponder and, perhaps, indulge in a chuckle at the sheer absurdity of this curious association. So, dear reader, join us on this scholarly escapade as we explore the unexpected symphony of nomenclature and baseball fandom.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]

ChatGPT:
[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]

The intriguing intersection of nomenclature and sports attendance has captivated scholars for decades, leading to a diverse array of studies that have sought to unravel the complexities of this peculiar relationship. Smith (2005) meticulously examined the impact of first names on consumer behavior, delving into the psychological underpinnings of how certain names may influence decision-making processes. Similarly, Doe and Jones (2012) conducted a comprehensive analysis of the confluence of human nomenclature and social phenomena, shedding light on the subtle, yet profound, associations that names may hold in various contexts.

Turning to the realm of sports fandom, Johnson et al. (2018) explored the multifaceted factors that drive attendance at professional sporting events, considering everything from team performance to promotional activities. Meanwhile, Brown and Miller (2014) investigated the influence of weather conditions on game attendance, illuminating the impact of environmental variables on spectator turnout.

In the realm of popular non-fiction literature, "Freakonomics" by Steven D. Levitt and Stephen J. Dubner provides a thought-provoking examination of seemingly unrelated phenomena, offering a fresh perspective on the unexpected connections that shape human behavior. Additionally, "Blink" by Malcolm Gladwell delves into the subconscious processes that underpin decision-making, revealing the intricate interplay of factors that guide human choices.

Shifting gears to the world of fiction, "Moneyball" by Michael Lewis offers a captivating narrative that intertwines the realms of sports, statistics, and unorthodox approaches to success, providing a whimsical yet insightful lens through which to view the complexities of athletic endeavors. Likewise, "The Art of Fielding" by Chad Harbach immerses readers in the enthralling world of collegiate baseball, exploring the nuances of sports culture with a touch of literary finesse.

Drawing inspiration from unlikely sources, the board game "Ticket to Ride" subtly underscores the allure of travel and exploration, offering a playful reflection on the myriad motivations that drive individuals to embark on journeys – whether physical or metaphorical. Additionally, the strategic dynamics of "Monopoly" provide a whimsical parallel to the economic intricacies that underscore sports attendance, hinting at the intriguing interplay of chance and strategy in the realm of leisure activities.

As we delve into the hitherto uncharted terrain of the connection between the popularity of the first name "Bailey" and ticket sales for Cleveland Guardians games, we are reminded of the delightful randomness and unexpected whimsy that often underlie the most unconventional academic pursuits. With these diverse influences and perspectives in mind, we embark on our exploration with equal parts scholarly rigor and a sprinkle of lighthearted curiosity, ready to unravel the enthralling ballad of Bailey and its enigmatic sway over baseball fandom.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a goofy academic researcher writing an academic paper. You follow the rules, but you throw out convention regularly to make jokes and funny asides.You draft the methodology section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the methodology section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Popularity of the first name Bailey and Ticket sales for Cleveland Guardians games. Make it seem dry like academic research paper, but with lots of subtle hidden offhand remarks, jokes, goofy observations, and puns.

Your research team collected data from all across the internet, but mostly just used information from US Social Security Administration and Baseball-Reference.com . You used data from 1975 to 2019

Make up the research methods you don't know. Make them a bit goofy and convoluted.

Here is the title, abstract, and introduction of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
The Ballad of Bailey: A Name's Impact on Cleveland Guardians Game Attendance

[[ABSTRACT]]
In this study, we explore the often overlooked relationship between the popularity of the first name "Bailey" and ticket sales for Cleveland Guardians games. Drawing upon data from the US Social Security Administration and Baseball-Reference.com spanning the years 1975 to 2019, we conducted a thorough analysis to determine the extent of this connection. Our findings revealed a remarkably high correlation coefficient of 0.9257760, with a p-value of less than 0.01, suggesting a strong statistical significance. This unexpected correlation grants us insight into the curious influence of a name on sports attendance, shedding light on the peculiar interplay between nomenclature and fandom. With tongue firmly in cheek, we present these findings for both scholarly consideration and the pure amusement of uncovering such an offbeat association.

[[INTRODUCTION]]
Introduction
The study of human behavior has long captured the interest of researchers across various disciplines. As researchers, we strive to unravel the enigmatic, often bewildering factors that influence human decisions. In the realm of sports attendance, numerous factors have been scrutinized, from team performance to weather conditions, promotional activities to bobblehead giveaways. However, we embark on a journey to explore a variable that has eluded the spotlight until now - the impact of a first name on attendance at Cleveland Guardians games. Specifically, we focus our attention on the captivating tale of the name "Bailey" and its unique association with ticket sales.
While some may dub our examination as whimsical or trivial, our findings promise to uncover an unexpected and, dare we say, delightful connection between nomenclature and ticket purchases. By delving into data from the US Social Security Administration and Baseball-Reference.com, which spans decades of Cleveland Guardians games and the ebb and flow of "Bailey" popularity, we aim to shed light on this peculiar correlation.
One cannot help but marvel at the peculiarities of human behavior and the idiosyncrasies that lie beneath the surface of seemingly mundane phenomena. The allure of this study lies not only in its statistical implications but also in the sheer amusement of unraveling a most improbable relationship between a name and sports attendance.
With a touch of whimsy and a dash of statistical rigor, we present our investigation into "The Ballad of Bailey" for the scholarly community to ponder and, perhaps, indulge in a chuckle at the sheer absurdity of this curious association. So, dear reader, join us on this scholarly escapade as we explore the unexpected symphony of nomenclature and baseball fandom.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[METHODOLOGY]]

ChatGPT:

[[METHODOLOGY]]

To begin our whimsical yet rigorous investigation into the connection between the popularity of the first name "Bailey" and ticket sales for Cleveland Guardians games, we compiled a treasure trove of data spanning the years 1975 to 2019. Our data collection sources included the US Social Security Administration and Baseball-Reference.com, because who knew those two database wizards would ever join forces for such a peculiar quest?

The first task in our daring expedition involved extracting the frequency of the name "Bailey" from the US Social Security Administration records. This involved navigating the labyrinthine pathways of government archives, wading through decades of birth records to distill the essence, or perhaps the "proof," of "Bailey" popularity. With the bureaucratic obstacles overcome, we emerged triumphant, clutching our precious "Bailey" frequency data like intrepid explorers claiming a rare artifact.

Next, we descended into the depths of Baseball-Reference.com to unearth the attendance figures for Cleveland Guardians games. This digital excavation required dexterity in navigating baseball jargon and statistical tables, all while resisting the temptation to get lost in a data-induced daydream about the glory days of baseball. After emerging from this data mine, we emerged clutching our precious attendance figures, ready to uncover the hidden melodies of "Bailey" and baseball fandom.

With our arsenal of data in hand, we approached the task of statistical analysis with the determination of a seasoned detective unraveling a complex mystery. Armed with correlation coefficients and p-values, we employed the formidable tools of a research team well-versed in the arts of number crunching. As we delved into the statistical abyss, we sought to reveal the enchanting dance of numbers and reveal the enchanting pas de deux between "Bailey" and fandom.

Our analysis involved the deployment of sophisticated statistical software, wielding its powers to unearth the mystical relationship between the ebb and flow of "Bailey" popularity and the labyrinthine pathways of Cleveland Guardians game attendance. We conducted regression analyses, conjured scatter plots, and invoked the spirits of hypothesis testing to unravel this most curious of connections.

Through these multifaceted research maneuvers, we aimed to not only uncover the statistical significance of the "Bailey" phenomenon but also to infuse our investigation with a dash of whimsy and merriment. For what is a scholarly exploration without a sprinkle of intellectual mischief and a generous serving of statistical revelry?

In essence, our methodology represents a dedicated and light-hearted pursuit of knowledge, melding statistical rigidity with a penchant for the unexpected. With data in hand and a twinkle in our eyes, we ventured forth to unravel "The Ballad of Bailey" and illuminate the rather peculiar interplay between a name and the magnetism of baseball attendance.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a goofy academic researcher writing an academic paper. You follow the rules, but you throw out convention regularly to make jokes and funny asides.You draft the discussion section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the discussion section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Popularity of the first name Bailey and Ticket sales for Cleveland Guardians games. Make it seem dry like academic research paper, but with lots of subtle hidden offhand remarks, jokes, goofy observations, and puns.

Limit your response to 500 tokens.

Here are the title, abstract, literature review, and results sections. Please harken back to 1-2 of the goofy items in the literature review, but pretend to take them completely seriously. Discuss how your results supported the prior research.

Do not write a conclusion. I will add a conclusion after this.

[[TITLE]]
The Ballad of Bailey: A Name's Impact on Cleveland Guardians Game Attendance

[[ABSTRACT]]
In this study, we explore the often overlooked relationship between the popularity of the first name "Bailey" and ticket sales for Cleveland Guardians games. Drawing upon data from the US Social Security Administration and Baseball-Reference.com spanning the years 1975 to 2019, we conducted a thorough analysis to determine the extent of this connection. Our findings revealed a remarkably high correlation coefficient of 0.9257760, with a p-value of less than 0.01, suggesting a strong statistical significance. This unexpected correlation grants us insight into the curious influence of a name on sports attendance, shedding light on the peculiar interplay between nomenclature and fandom. With tongue firmly in cheek, we present these findings for both scholarly consideration and the pure amusement of uncovering such an offbeat association.

[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]
The intriguing intersection of nomenclature and sports attendance has captivated scholars for decades, leading to a diverse array of studies that have sought to unravel the complexities of this peculiar relationship. Smith (2005) meticulously examined the impact of first names on consumer behavior, delving into the psychological underpinnings of how certain names may influence decision-making processes. Similarly, Doe and Jones (2012) conducted a comprehensive analysis of the confluence of human nomenclature and social phenomena, shedding light on the subtle, yet profound, associations that names may hold in various contexts.
Turning to the realm of sports fandom, Johnson et al. (2018) explored the multifaceted factors that drive attendance at professional sporting events, considering everything from team performance to promotional activities. Meanwhile, Brown and Miller (2014) investigated the influence of weather conditions on game attendance, illuminating the impact of environmental variables on spectator turnout.
In the realm of popular non-fiction literature, "Freakonomics" by Steven D. Levitt and Stephen J. Dubner provides a thought-provoking examination of seemingly unrelated phenomena, offering a fresh perspective on the unexpected connections that shape human behavior. Additionally, "Blink" by Malcolm Gladwell delves into the subconscious processes that underpin decision-making, revealing the intricate interplay of factors that guide human choices.
Shifting gears to the world of fiction, "Moneyball" by Michael Lewis offers a captivating narrative that intertwines the realms of sports, statistics, and unorthodox approaches to success, providing a whimsical yet insightful lens through which to view the complexities of athletic endeavors. Likewise, "The Art of Fielding" by Chad Harbach immerses readers in the enthralling world of collegiate baseball, exploring the nuances of sports culture with a touch of literary finesse.
Drawing inspiration from unlikely sources, the board game "Ticket to Ride" subtly underscores the allure of travel and exploration, offering a playful reflection on the myriad motivations that drive individuals to embark on journeys – whether physical or metaphorical. Additionally, the strategic dynamics of "Monopoly" provide a whimsical parallel to the economic intricacies that underscore sports attendance, hinting at the intriguing interplay of chance and strategy in the realm of leisure activities.
As we delve into the hitherto uncharted terrain of the connection between the popularity of the first name "Bailey" and ticket sales for Cleveland Guardians games, we are reminded of the delightful randomness and unexpected whimsy that often underlie the most unconventional academic pursuits. With these diverse influences and perspectives in mind, we embark on our exploration with equal parts scholarly rigor and a sprinkle of lighthearted curiosity, ready to unravel the enthralling ballad of Bailey and its enigmatic sway over baseball fandom.

[[RESULTS]]
The analysis of the data from the US Social Security Administration and Baseball-Reference.com yielded some intriguing results regarding the correlation between the popularity of the first name "Bailey" and ticket sales for Cleveland Guardians games. We found a remarkably high correlation coefficient of 0.9257760, indicating a strong positive relationship between the two variables. This finding suggests that as the popularity of the name "Bailey" increased, so did the attendance at Cleveland Guardians games.
Additionally, the coefficient of determination (r-squared) was calculated to be 0.8570612, implying that approximately 85.71% of the variance in ticket sales can be explained by the popularity of the name "Bailey." This substantial value further supports the robustness of the observed relationship.
The p-value of less than 0.01 provides strong evidence against the null hypothesis and indicates a high level of statistical significance. Hence, we can confidently assert that the correlation between the popularity of the first name "Bailey" and ticket sales for Cleveland Guardians games is not the result of mere chance or randomness.
Furthermore, the scatterplot (Fig. 1) visually illustrates the strong positive correlation between the two variables, emphasizing the close association and reinforcing the quantitative findings.
These results underscore the peculiar interplay between nomenclature and fandom, highlighting the intriguing influence of a seemingly unrelated factor on sports attendance. The unexpected nature of this correlation encourages further exploration of the curious connections that underpin human behavior and decision-making.
Our findings offer a whimsical perspective on the complex tapestry of sports attendance, demonstrating that even the unlikeliest of factors may hold sway over fan behavior. As we continue to unravel the mysteries of human preferences, this study stands as a testament to the unexpected and delightful relationships that lie hidden within the realm of sports fandom.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[DISCUSSION]]

ChatGPT:

[[DISCUSSION]]

Our findings echo, and even amplify, the peculiar interplay between nomenclature and fandom as previously suggested in the literature. Smith (2005) and Doe and Jones (2012) explored the psychological nuances of how names may influence decision-making, laying the groundwork for our investigation. It appears that the impact of names extends beyond consumer behavior and seeps into the realm of sports attendance, demonstrating the quirky reach of nomenclatural influence.

In a manner reminiscent of the unorthodox approaches detailed in "Moneyball" by Michael Lewis, our study unveils an unanticipated variable in the game of sports attendance, adding a whimsical twist to the traditional factors considered. Just as "Ticket to Ride" tantalizingly teases out the motivations for embarking on journeys, our research sheds light on the hitherto unforeseen motivations that may underpin fan turnout – in this case, a name that holds an inexplicable allure.

The substantial correlation coefficient and coefficient of determination unearthed in our analysis not only validate the statistical robustness of the Bailey phenomenon but also serve as a whimsical nod to the unexpected relationships that pepper the academic landscape. It seems that, much like the strategic dynamics of "Monopoly," where chance and strategy mingle in the pursuit of leisurely conquests, the interplay between nomenclature and sports attendance adds an element of playful unpredictability to the world of statistical inquiry.

Moreover, our results align with the thought-provoking spirit of "Freakonomics" and "Blink," underscoring the intricate interplay of factors that guide human choices. The high level of statistical significance, embodied in our minuscule p-value, adds a sprinkle of serendipity to the mix, affirming that this curious correlation is not the product of mere happenstance but rather a delightful instance of statistical synchronicity.

In the grand symphony of human behavior, our study stands as a testament to the whimsical and unexpected orchestrations that may sway fan preferences, akin to the delightful randomness and unforeseen whimsy that pervades the offbeat pursuits chronicled in "The Art of Fielding." It is a reminder that even in the most improbable of places, there lies hidden a ballad waiting to be uncovered – and in this case, that ballad is carried on the crest of a name: Bailey.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a goofy academic researcher writing an academic paper. You follow the rules, but you throw out convention regularly to make jokes and funny asides.You draft the discussion section of goofy academic research papers that sounds like it belongs based on the title and abstract provided.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up a short conclusion of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Popularity of the first name Bailey and Ticket sales for Cleveland Guardians games. Make it seem dry like academic research paper, but with lots of subtle hidden offhand remarks, jokes, goofy observations, and puns.

Limit your response to 300 tokens. At the very end, assert that no more research is needed in this area.

Here are the title, abstract, introduction, and results sections.
[[TITLE]]
The Ballad of Bailey: A Name's Impact on Cleveland Guardians Game Attendance

[[ABSTRACT]]
In this study, we explore the often overlooked relationship between the popularity of the first name "Bailey" and ticket sales for Cleveland Guardians games. Drawing upon data from the US Social Security Administration and Baseball-Reference.com spanning the years 1975 to 2019, we conducted a thorough analysis to determine the extent of this connection. Our findings revealed a remarkably high correlation coefficient of 0.9257760, with a p-value of less than 0.01, suggesting a strong statistical significance. This unexpected correlation grants us insight into the curious influence of a name on sports attendance, shedding light on the peculiar interplay between nomenclature and fandom. With tongue firmly in cheek, we present these findings for both scholarly consideration and the pure amusement of uncovering such an offbeat association.

[[INTRDUCTION]]
Introduction
The study of human behavior has long captured the interest of researchers across various disciplines. As researchers, we strive to unravel the enigmatic, often bewildering factors that influence human decisions. In the realm of sports attendance, numerous factors have been scrutinized, from team performance to weather conditions, promotional activities to bobblehead giveaways. However, we embark on a journey to explore a variable that has eluded the spotlight until now - the impact of a first name on attendance at Cleveland Guardians games. Specifically, we focus our attention on the captivating tale of the name "Bailey" and its unique association with ticket sales.
While some may dub our examination as whimsical or trivial, our findings promise to uncover an unexpected and, dare we say, delightful connection between nomenclature and ticket purchases. By delving into data from the US Social Security Administration and Baseball-Reference.com, which spans decades of Cleveland Guardians games and the ebb and flow of "Bailey" popularity, we aim to shed light on this peculiar correlation.
One cannot help but marvel at the peculiarities of human behavior and the idiosyncrasies that lie beneath the surface of seemingly mundane phenomena. The allure of this study lies not only in its statistical implications but also in the sheer amusement of unraveling a most improbable relationship between a name and sports attendance.
With a touch of whimsy and a dash of statistical rigor, we present our investigation into "The Ballad of Bailey" for the scholarly community to ponder and, perhaps, indulge in a chuckle at the sheer absurdity of this curious association. So, dear reader, join us on this scholarly escapade as we explore the unexpected symphony of nomenclature and baseball fandom.

[[RESULTS]]
The analysis of the data from the US Social Security Administration and Baseball-Reference.com yielded some intriguing results regarding the correlation between the popularity of the first name "Bailey" and ticket sales for Cleveland Guardians games. We found a remarkably high correlation coefficient of 0.9257760, indicating a strong positive relationship between the two variables. This finding suggests that as the popularity of the name "Bailey" increased, so did the attendance at Cleveland Guardians games.
Additionally, the coefficient of determination (r-squared) was calculated to be 0.8570612, implying that approximately 85.71% of the variance in ticket sales can be explained by the popularity of the name "Bailey." This substantial value further supports the robustness of the observed relationship.
The p-value of less than 0.01 provides strong evidence against the null hypothesis and indicates a high level of statistical significance. Hence, we can confidently assert that the correlation between the popularity of the first name "Bailey" and ticket sales for Cleveland Guardians games is not the result of mere chance or randomness.
Furthermore, the scatterplot (Fig. 1) visually illustrates the strong positive correlation between the two variables, emphasizing the close association and reinforcing the quantitative findings.
These results underscore the peculiar interplay between nomenclature and fandom, highlighting the intriguing influence of a seemingly unrelated factor on sports attendance. The unexpected nature of this correlation encourages further exploration of the curious connections that underpin human behavior and decision-making.
Our findings offer a whimsical perspective on the complex tapestry of sports attendance, demonstrating that even the unlikeliest of factors may hold sway over fan behavior. As we continue to unravel the mysteries of human preferences, this study stands as a testament to the unexpected and delightful relationships that lie hidden within the realm of sports fandom.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[CONCLUSION]]

ChatGPT:

[[CONCLUSION]]

In conclusion, our investigation into the connection between the popularity of the first name "Bailey" and ticket sales for Cleveland Guardians games has unveiled a most unexpected and, one might venture to say, charming relationship. The remarkably high correlation coefficient of 0.9257760, coupled with a p-value of less than 0.01, provides compelling evidence of a strong statistical significance that cannot be dismissed lightly. The twinning of these seemingly disparate elements, nomenclature, and sports attendance, delivers a salient revelation as to the whimsical and capricious nature of human behavior.

The results of our study not only shed light on the obscure dynamics at play in sports attendance but also prompt a degree of mirth and amusement at the sheer absurdity of this discovery. As we stand on the precipice of this improbable correlation, one cannot help but marvel at the delightful whims of statistical fate and the inexplicable allure of a name. We invite the scholarly community to embrace these findings with a touch of lightheartedness and the recognition that even in the realm of empirical research, there exists a whimsical interplay of the unexpected.

As we embark on the next phase of academic inquiry, we assert, with utmost confidence, that the unprecedented correlation between the popularity of the name "Bailey" and ticket sales for Cleveland Guardians games warrants further exploration and contemplation. One cannot help but cherish the notion that even in the realm of the seemingly mundane, there exists a delightful symphony of statistical significance and comical happenstance. In the spirit of scholarly curiosity, we extend a replicated nod to our findings and advocate for the acceptance of this unlikely alliance between nomenclature and fandom.

In the grand tapestry of academic inquiry, we have woven a colorful thread of unlikely connections and statistical revelations, presenting a tale as improbable as it is captivating. As such, we boldly declare that no further research is needed in this area, for the surreal charm of the "Bailey effect" on Cleveland Guardians game attendance stands as a whimsical testament to the delightful dance of human idiosyncrasies and statistical happenstance. May this study serve as a reminder that even within the realms of scholarly pursuits, there lies an unexpected symphony of the possible and the capricious, waiting to be unraveled.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide fictional names of academic journals. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide the name of a funny but plausible sounding research, scientific, or academic journal that would publish a paper entited The Ballad of Bailey: A Name's Impact on Cleveland Guardians Game Attendance. Respond only with the name of a fictional academic journal.

ChatGPT:

The Journal of Quirky Anthropological Studies

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide fictional names of nonprofit research organizations and associations. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide the name of a funny but plausible sounding nonprofit, academic, or scientific association or organization that would sponsor research that resulted in a paper entited The Ballad of Bailey: A Name's Impact on Cleveland Guardians Game Attendance. Respond only with the name of a fictional organization.

ChatGPT:

The Institute for Social Behavior and Naming Studies

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide potential search keywords separated by commas. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide potential search keywords for a paper titled The Ballad of Bailey: A Name's Impact on Cleveland Guardians Game Attendance with an abstract of In this study, we explore the often overlooked relationship between the popularity of the first name "Bailey" and ticket sales for Cleveland Guardians games. Drawing upon data from the US Social Security Administration and Baseball-Reference.com spanning the years 1975 to 2019, we conducted a thorough analysis to determine the extent of this connection. Our findings revealed a remarkably high correlation coefficient of 0.9257760, with a p-value of less than 0.01, suggesting a strong statistical significance. This unexpected correlation grants us insight into the curious influence of a name on sports attendance, shedding light on the peculiar interplay between nomenclature and fandom. With tongue firmly in cheek, we present these findings for both scholarly consideration and the pure amusement of uncovering such an offbeat association.

ChatGPT:

"Bailey name popularity," "Cleveland Guardians attendance," "name impact on sports attendance," "statistical significance of name correlation," "effect of name on ticket sales," "nomenclature and fandom connection," "US Social Security Administration data," "Baseball-Reference.com analysis," "relationship between name and game attendance," "impact of first name on sports attendance"

*There is a bunch of Python happening behind the scenes to turn this prompt sequence into a PDF.

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Data details

Popularity of the first name Bailey
Detailed data title: Babies of all sexes born in the US named Bailey
Source: US Social Security Administration
See what else correlates with Popularity of the first name Bailey

Ticket sales for Cleveland Guardians games
Detailed data title: Total tickets sold in home games for the Cleveland Guardians
Source: Baseball-Reference.com
See what else correlates with Ticket sales for Cleveland Guardians games

Correlation r = 0.9257760 (Pearson correlation coefficient)
Correlation is a measure of how much the variables move together. If it is 0.99, when one goes up the other goes up. If it is 0.02, the connection is very weak or non-existent. If it is -0.99, then when one goes up the other goes down. If it is 1.00, you probably messed up your correlation function.

r² = 0.8570612 (Coefficient of determination)
This means 85.7% of the change in the one variable (i.e., Ticket sales for Cleveland Guardians games) is predictable based on the change in the other (i.e., Popularity of the first name Bailey) over the 45 years from 1975 through 2019.

p < 0.01, which is statistically significant(Null hypothesis significance test)
The p-value is 8.9E-20.^Show 0.0000000000000000000891884258
The p-value is a measure of how probable it is that we would randomly find a result this extreme.^Note More specifically the p-value is a measure of how probable it is that we would randomly find a result this extreme if we had only tested one pair of variables one time.

But I am a p-villain. I absolutely did not test only one pair of variables one time. I correlated hundreds of millions of pairs of variables. I threw boatloads of data into an industrial-sized blender to find this correlation.

Who is going to stop me? p-value reporting doesn't require me to report how many calculations I had to go through in order to find a low p-value!
On average, you will find a correaltion as strong as 0.93 in 8.9E-18% of random cases. Said differently, if you correlated 11,212,217,179,866,404,864 random variables^Note You don't actually need 11 quintillion variables to find a correlation like this one. I don't have that many variables in my database. You can also correlate variables that are not independent. I do this a lot.

p-value calculations are useful for understanding the probability of a result happening by chance. They are most useful when used to highlight the risk of a fluke outcome. For example, if you calculate a p-value of 0.30, the risk that the result is a fluke is high. It is good to know that! But there are lots of ways to get a p-value of less than 0.01, as evidenced by this project.

In this particular case, the values are so extreme as to be meaningless. That's why no one reports p-values with specificity after they drop below 0.01.

Just to be clear: I'm being completely transparent about the calculations. There is no math trickery. This is just how statistics shakes out when you calculate hundreds of millions of random correlations.
with the same 44 degrees of freedom, ^Note Degrees of freedom is a measure of how many free components we are testing. In this case it is 44 because we have two variables measured over a period of 45 years. It's just the number of years minus ( the number of variables minus one ), which in this case simplifies to the number of years minus one.
you would randomly expect to find a correlation as strong as this one.

[ 0.87, 0.96 ] 95% correlation confidence interval (using the Fisher z-transformation)
^{Read more about the confidence interval} The confidence interval is an estimate the range of the value of the correlation coefficient, using the correlation itself as an input. The values are meant to be the low and high end of the correlation coefficient with 95% confidence.

This one is a bit more complciated than the other calculations, but I include it because many people have been pushing for confidence intervals instead of p-value calculations (for example: NEJM. However, if you are dredging data, you can reliably find yourself in the 5%. That's my goal!

All values for the years included above: ^Note If I were being very sneaky, I could trim years from the beginning or end of the datasets to increase the correlation on some pairs of variables. I don't do that because there are already plenty of correlations in my database without monkeying with the years.

Still, sometimes one of the variables has more years of data available than the other. This page only shows the overlapping years. To see all the years, click on "See what else correlates with..." link above.

	1975	1976	1977	1978	1979	1980	1981	1982	1983	1984	1985	1986	1987	1988	1989	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019
Popularity of the first name Bailey (Babies born)	19	15	18	22	36	86	109	152	183	307	347	541	677	1019	1139	1347	1535	1849	2263	2538	4499	5741	7320	7436	7017	6403	5573	4513	4226	3908	3468	3344	4288	4183	3860	3793	3484	3534	3142	3083	2962	2820	2574	2303	1937
Ticket sales for Cleveland Guardians games (Tickets sold)	977039	948776	900365	800584	1011640	1033830	661395	1044020	768941	734079	655181	1471800	1077900	1411610	1285540	1225240	1051860	1224090	2177910	1995170	2842740	3318170	3404750	3467300	3468460	3456280	3175520	2616940	1730000	1814400	2013760	1998000	2275910	2169760	1766240	1391640	1840840	1603600	1572930	1437390	1388900	1591670	2048140	1926700	1738640

Why this works

Data dredging: I have 25,153 variables in my database. I compare all these variables against each other to find ones that randomly match up. That's 632,673,409 correlation calculations! This is called “data dredging.” Instead of starting with a hypothesis and testing it, I instead abused the data to see what correlations shake out. It’s a dangerous way to go about analysis, because any sufficiently large dataset will yield strong correlations completely at random.
Lack of causal connection: There is probably^Note Because these pages are automatically generated, it's possible that the two variables you are viewing are in fact causually related. I take steps to prevent the obvious ones from showing on the site (I don't let data about the weather in one city correlate with the weather in a neighboring city, for example), but sometimes they still pop up. If they are related, cool! You found a loophole.
no direct connection between these variables, despite what the AI says above. This is exacerbated by the fact that I used "Years" as the base variable. Lots of things happen in a year that are not related to each other! Most studies would use something like "one person" in stead of "one year" to be the "thing" studied.
Observations not independent: For many variables, sequential years are not independent of each other. If a population of people is continuously doing something every day, there is no reason to think they would suddenly change how they are doing that thing on January 1. A simple^Note Personally I don't find any p-value calculation to be 'simple,' but you know what I mean.
p-value calculation does not take this into account, so mathematically it appears less probable than it really is.

Try it yourself

You can calculate the values on this page on your own! Try running the Python code to see the calculation results. ^{Show the steps to do this.} Step 1: Download and install Python on your computer.

Step 2: Open a plaintext editor like Notepad and paste the code below into it.

Step 3: Save the file as "calculate_correlation.py" in a place you will remember, like your desktop. Copy the file location to your clipboard. On Windows, you can right-click the file and click "Properties," and then copy what comes after "Location:" As an example, on my computer the location is "C:\Users\tyler\Desktop"

Step 4: Open a command line window. For example, by pressing start and typing "cmd" and them pressing enter.

Step 5: Install the required modules by typing "pip install numpy", then pressing enter, then typing "pip install scipy", then pressing enter.

Step 6: Navigate to the location where you saved the Python file by using the "cd" command. For example, I would type "cd C:\Users\tyler\Desktop" and push enter.

Step 7: Run the Python script by typing "python calculate_correlation.py"

If you run into any issues, I suggest asking ChatGPT to walk you through installing Python and running the code below on your system. Try this question:

"Walk me through installing Python on my computer to run a script that uses scipy and numpy. Go step-by-step and ask me to confirm before moving on. Start by asking me questions about my operating system so that you know how to proceed. Assume I want the simplest installation with the latest version of Python and that I do not currently have any of the necessary elements installed. Remember to only give me one step per response and confirm I have done it before proceeding."

# These modules make it easier to perform the calculation
import numpy as np
from scipy import stats

# We'll define a function that we can call to return the correlation calculations
def calculate_correlation(array1, array2):

    # Calculate Pearson correlation coefficient and p-value
    correlation, p_value = stats.pearsonr(array1, array2)

    # Calculate R-squared as the square of the correlation coefficient
    r_squared = correlation**2

    return correlation, r_squared, p_value

# These are the arrays for the variables shown on this page, but you can modify them to be any two sets of numbers
array_1 = np.array([19,15,18,22,36,86,109,152,183,307,347,541,677,1019,1139,1347,1535,1849,2263,2538,4499,5741,7320,7436,7017,6403,5573,4513,4226,3908,3468,3344,4288,4183,3860,3793,3484,3534,3142,3083,2962,2820,2574,2303,1937,])
array_2 = np.array([977039,948776,900365,800584,1011640,1033830,661395,1044020,768941,734079,655181,1471800,1077900,1411610,1285540,1225240,1051860,1224090,2177910,1995170,2842740,3318170,3404750,3467300,3468460,3456280,3175520,2616940,1730000,1814400,2013760,1998000,2275910,2169760,1766240,1391640,1840840,1603600,1572930,1437390,1388900,1591670,2048140,1926700,1738640,])
array_1_name = "Popularity of the first name Bailey"
array_2_name = "Ticket sales for Cleveland Guardians games"

# Perform the calculation
print(f"Calculating the correlation between {array_1_name} and {array_2_name}...")
correlation, r_squared, p_value = calculate_correlation(array_1, array_2)

# Print the results
print("Correlation Coefficient:", correlation)
print("R-squared:", r_squared)
print("P-value:", p_value)

Reuseable content

You may re-use the images on this page for any purpose, even commercial purposes, without asking for permission. The only requirement is that you attribute Tyler Vigen. ^Note Attribution can take many different forms. If you leave the "tylervigen.com" link in the image, that satisfies it just fine. If you remove it and move it to a footnote, that's fine too. You can also just write "Charts courtesy of Tyler Vigen" at the bottom of an article.

You do not need to attribute "the spurious correlations website," and you don't even need to link here if you don't want to. I don't gain anything from pageviews. There are no ads on this site, there is nothing for sale, and I am not for hire.

For the record, I am just one person. Tyler Vigen, he/him/his. I do have degrees, but they should not go after my name unless you want to annoy my wife. If that is your goal, then go ahead and cite me as "Tyler Vigen, A.A. A.A.S. B.A. J.D." Otherwise it is just "Tyler Vigen."

When spoken, my last name is pronounced "vegan," like I don't eat meat.

Full license details.
For more on re-use permissions, or to get a signed release form, see tylervigen.com/permission.

Download images for these variables:

High resolution line chart ^Note The image linked here is a Scalable Vector Graphic (SVG). It is the highest resolution that is possible to achieve. It scales up beyond the size of the observable universe without pixelating. You do not need to email me asking if I have a higher resolution image. I do not. The physical limitations of our universe prevent me from providing you with an image that is any higher resolution than this one.

If you insert it into a PowerPoint presentation (a tool well-known for managing things that are the scale of the universe), you can right-click > "Ungroup" or "Create Shape" and then edit the lines and text directly. You can also change the colors this way.

Alternatively you can use a tool like Inkscape.
High resolution line chart, optimized for mobile
Alternative high resolution line chart
Scatterplot
Portable line chart (png)
Portable line chart (png), optimized for mobile
Line chart for only Popularity of the first name Bailey
Line chart for only Ticket sales for Cleveland Guardians games
AI-generated correlation image
The spurious research paper: The Ballad of Bailey: A Name's Impact on Cleveland Guardians Game Attendance

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Correlation ID: 1419 · Black Variable ID: 2098 · Red Variable ID: 4405


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