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spurious correlations

correlation is not causation

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don't miss spurious scholar,
where each of these is an academic paper

A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is Annual US household spending on fresh fruits and the second variable is Canadian National Railway Company's stock price (CNI).  The chart goes from 2002 to 2022, and the two variables track closely in value over that time. Small Image
View details about correlation #5,901


As US households spent more on fresh fruits, there was a higher demand for fruit transportation. This led to Canadian National Railway Company (CNI) to have more business in shipping fruits across the border. This increased revenue and projected earnings, leading to a rise in stock price. It's like the fruits of their labor were ripe for the picking!




What else correlates?
Annual US household spending on fresh fruits · all weird & wacky
Canadian National Railway Company's stock price (CNI) · all stocks

A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is Bachelor's degrees awarded in Mathematics and statistics and the second variable is Lockheed Martin's stock price (LMT).  The chart goes from 2012 to 2021, and the two variables track closely in value over that time. Small Image
View details about correlation #1,954


As more mathematicians and statisticians graduate, they start calculating all the possible trajectories of the stock market. Their complex equations and formulas lead to a surge in accurate stock predictions, making Lockheed Martin a top pick. This newfound demand for LMT stock drives up the price as these number-savvy individuals engage in some serious mathematical stock market manipulation. It's like they say, when math geeks crunch numbers, stock prices go up, up, and array!




What else correlates?
Bachelor's degrees awarded in Mathematics and statistics · all education
Lockheed Martin's stock price (LMT) · all stocks

A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is Disney movies released and the second variable is Motor vehicle thefts.  The chart goes from 2000 to 2022, and the two variables track closely in value over that time. Small Image
View details about correlation #1,248


As Disney downshifted its movie production, there were fewer car-related films and spin-off merchandise, leading to a reduced interest in automobiles. This eventually put the brakes on the demand for stolen cars, steering would-be thieves towards other, non-automotive pursuits. Or perhaps with the absence of enchanting carriages in the newer Disney movies, thieves lost their belief in the magic of grand theft auto, causing a downturn in the illicit market for vehicles. And as children were no longer getting behind the "wheel" of these car-centric Disney films, they were less likely to grow up to become car thieves, creating a cascading effect on the entire industry.




What else correlates?
Disney movies released · all films & actors
Motor vehicle thefts · all random state specific

A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is Popularity of the first name Laurel and the second variable is The number of costume attendants in Minnesota.  The chart goes from 2003 to 2020, and the two variables track closely in value over that time. Small Image
View details about correlation #1,086


As the name Laurel gained popularity, more and more parents subconsciously felt drawn to the idea of their child standing out like a prized leaf on a majestic tree. This led to a surge in the demand for elaborate, leafy costumes in Minnesota, as parents enthusiastically prepared their little Laurels to branch out and photosynthesize in style at various events. It seems that the name Laurel truly knows how to 'photosynt-hesize' a trend for foliage-themed fashion in the land of 10,000 lakes!




What else correlates?
Popularity of the first name Laurel · all first names
The number of costume attendants in Minnesota · all cccupations

A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is Biomass power generated in Philippines and the second variable is Google searches for 'avocado toast'.  The chart goes from 2009 to 2021, and the two variables track closely in value over that time. Small Image
View details about correlation #1,705


The avocado trees were loving the sustainable energy vibes and producing extra delicious avocados for the toast!




What else correlates?
Biomass power generated in Philippines · all energy
Google searches for 'avocado toast' · all google searches

A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is Popularity of the first name Alix and the second variable is Carjackings in the US.  The chart goes from 1995 to 2021, and the two variables track closely in value over that time. Small Image
View details about correlation #5,912


As the name Alix fell out of favor, there were fewer people inadvertently summoning cars with their mere presence. This led to a decrease in opportunities for carjackings across the country.




What else correlates?
Popularity of the first name Alix · all first names
Carjackings in the US · all weird & wacky

A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is The number of mechanical drafters in Colorado and the second variable is Season wins for the Denver Broncos.  The chart goes from 2003 to 2022, and the two variables track closely in value over that time. Small Image
View details about correlation #1,914


As the number of mechanical drafters in Colorado decreased, there was a subtle but significant shift in the airflow dynamics across the state. This unexpected change in air currents led to a slight disruption in the trajectory of footballs during crucial game moments. Essentially, the absence of these drafters inadvertently drafted a new playbook for Mother Nature, giving a whole new meaning to the phrase "air support" for the Denver Broncos.




What else correlates?
The number of mechanical drafters in Colorado · all cccupations
Season wins for the Denver Broncos · all sports

A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is The distance between Saturn and the Sun and the second variable is Baidu's stock price (BIDU).  The chart goes from 2006 to 2023, and the two variables track closely in value over that time. Small Image
View details about correlation #1,339


As the gap widened, Saturn started to exude a new gravitational pull on Earth, leading to a rise in fortune for Baidu. It seems the farther Saturn shined, the more Baidu's stock aligned. This celestial separation somehow cosmically boosted Baidu's performance, proving that even in the stock market, space matters.




What else correlates?
The distance between Saturn and the Sun · all planets
Baidu's stock price (BIDU) · all stocks

A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is Popularity of the 'red pill blue pill' meme and the second variable is Google searches for 'i am tired'.  The chart goes from 2006 to 2023, and the two variables track closely in value over that time. Small Image
View details about correlation #5,208


The 'red pill blue pill' meme led to heated debates and late-night pondering, prompting people to stay up and overthink their life choices. Now they're realizing that the real struggle isn't choosing a pill, but finding the energy to get through the day. Remember, sometimes the meme chooses you!




What else correlates?
Popularity of the 'red pill blue pill' meme · all memes
Google searches for 'i am tired' · all google searches

A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is Popularity of the first name Gerard and the second variable is Air pollution in Anchorage.  The chart goes from 1980 to 2022, and the two variables track closely in value over that time. Small Image
View details about correlation #2,018


Fewer people were pronouncing the hard "G" in his name, leading to a reduction in gas emissions during speech.




What else correlates?
Popularity of the first name Gerard · all first names
Air pollution in Anchorage · all weather

A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is The number of forest and conservation workers in New Jersey and the second variable is Barclays' stock price (BCS).  The chart goes from 2004 to 2020, and the two variables track closely in value over that time. Small Image
View details about correlation #1,268


As the number of forest and conservation workers in New Jersey decreases, there are fewer people available to stop the spread of invasive financial weed species, leading to a decrease in natural stock value and ultimately causing Barclays' stock price (BCS) to decrease.




What else correlates?
The number of forest and conservation workers in New Jersey · all cccupations
Barclays' stock price (BCS) · all stocks

A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is Highway diesel consumption in US and the second variable is Popularity of the 'willy wonka' meme.  The chart goes from 2006 to 2011, and the two variables track closely in value over that time. Small Image
View details about correlation #5,207


Fewer diesel fumes meant less air pollution, leading to clearer thinking. With clearer thinking, people realized that the Willy Wonka meme was overused and not as funny as they once thought.




What else correlates?
Highway diesel consumption in US · all weird & wacky
Popularity of the 'willy wonka' meme · all memes

A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is GMO use in soybeans in Iowa and the second variable is Geothermal power generated in Russia.  The chart goes from 2000 to 2021, and the two variables track closely in value over that time. Small Image
View details about correlation #2,605


As the GMO soybeans in Iowa flourished, they unknowingly formed a vast underground network, inadvertently connecting with the extensive root systems of Russian dandelions. This unprecedented transcontinental plant communication created a synergy that boosted geothermal power production in Russia. Essentially, it was a case of soy-powered dandelion technology, proving once and for all that when life gives you GMO soybeans, you also get a whole new way to generate energy, brought to you by the collaborative efforts of international flora.




What else correlates?
GMO use in soybeans in Iowa · all food
Geothermal power generated in Russia · all energy

A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is Popularity of the first name Sarah and the second variable is Google searches for 'learn spanish'.  The chart goes from 2004 to 2022, and the two variables track closely in value over that time. Small Image
View details about correlation #4,240


Fewer Saras were available to serenade with "Despacito," leading to a nationwide decrease in Spanish language inspiration. The lack of Sarahs to impress with basic Spanish phrases like "Hola" and "¿Cómo estás?" meant that the motivation to learn Spanish dwindled. Without a Sarah to woo with their limited Spanish skills, people just didn't see the point in mastering the language. It seems like Sarah had unknowingly become the unofficial ambassador for Spanish language enthusiasts everywhere!




What else correlates?
Popularity of the first name Sarah · all first names
Google searches for 'learn spanish' · all google searches

A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is The number of movies Elijah Wood appeared in and the second variable is The number of orderlies in Oklahoma.  The chart goes from 2012 to 2022, and the two variables track closely in value over that time. Small Image
View details about correlation #5,875


As the frequency of Frodo's on-screen adventures declined, so did the demand for individuals experienced in handling unexpected hobbit-related incidents. The disproportionate decrease in orderlies can be attributed to the ripple effect of Middle Earth's dwindling influence on the healthcare industry. It seems that as the journey to Mordor faded from collective memory, so too did the need for orderlies who were well-versed in dealing with potential Ring-related emergencies. Remember, a hobbit's unexpected medical visit could have been one does not simply handle, leading to a peculiar shortage of staff proficient in hobbit healthcare.




What else correlates?
The number of movies Elijah Wood appeared in · all films & actors
The number of orderlies in Oklahoma · all cccupations

A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is The distance between Neptune and the Sun and the second variable is NASA's budget as a percentage of the total US Federal Budget.  The chart goes from 1975 to 2023, and the two variables track closely in value over that time. Small Image
View details about correlation #1,033


As Neptune moved closer, it got too close for comfort, creating gravitational budget cuts at NASA. The astronomical expenses simply couldn't be kept afloat, sinking their funding to new depths. It seems even in space, the budget has no limit - it's truly out of this world!




What else correlates?
The distance between Neptune and the Sun · all planets
NASA's budget as a percentage of the total US Federal Budget · all weird & wacky

A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is Popularity of the 'not sure if' meme and the second variable is UFO sightings in Alaska.  The chart goes from 2006 to 2021, and the two variables track closely in value over that time. Small Image
View details about correlation #4,987


As the 'not sure if' meme gained popularity, it inadvertently transmitted cryptic signals into outer space, piquing the curiosity of extraterrestrial beings. These aliens, mistaking the memes for a form of human communication, decided to investigate the source of these perplexing messages, leading to an unusual surge in UFO sightings in Alaska. The 'not sure if' meme: Confusing humans and aliens alike.




What else correlates?
Popularity of the 'not sure if' meme · all memes
UFO sightings in Alaska · all random state specific

A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is Popularity of the first name Violet and the second variable is Fossil fuel use in Equatorial Guinea.  The chart goes from 1980 to 2021, and the two variables track closely in value over that time. Small Image
View details about correlation #3,022


As more and more people were named Violet, the demand for violet-colored cars skyrocketed. This led to a global shortage of violet automotive paint, prompting intensified drilling for the rare violet fossil fuel in Equatorial Guinea. Remember, when it comes to naming trends, the fuel-ty's the limit!




What else correlates?
Popularity of the first name Violet · all first names
Fossil fuel use in Equatorial Guinea · all energy

A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is The number of movies Don Cheadle appeared in and the second variable is Points allowed by the Los Angeles Chargers.  The chart goes from 2017 to 2023, and the two variables track closely in value over that time. Small Image
View details about correlation #5,874


Every time Don Cheadle is in a movie, the Chargers' opponents can't help but be starstruck, leading to a dramatic decrease in their ability to score points. It's like the Chargers' defense is the real Avengers, and Don Cheadle's on-screen presence is their secret weapon against the opposing offense! It's a blockbuster success for the Chargers' defense every time Don Cheadle graces the silver screen.




What else correlates?
The number of movies Don Cheadle appeared in · all films & actors
Points allowed by the Los Angeles Chargers · all sports

A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is Per capita consumption of margarine and the second variable is The divorce rate in Maine.  The chart goes from 2000 to 2009, and the two variables track closely in value over that time. Small Image
View details about correlation #5,920


Perhaps as people used less margarine, they became less slippery in their relationships. The lack of artificial spread may have kept the couples from buttering each other up, leading to a decrease in overall marital strife. That's the reality when you can't believe it's not butter - it's a recipe for marital success. Alternatively, it could be that as the margarine consumption decreased, so did the overall slickness in the state, leading to fewer instances of partners feeling like they couldn't grip the marriage.




What else correlates?
Per capita consumption of margarine · all food
The divorce rate in Maine · all random state specific

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Why this works

  1. Data dredging: I have 25,237 variables in my database. I compare all these variables against each other to find ones that randomly match up. That's 636,906,169 correlation calculations! This is called “data dredging.” Fun fact: the chart used on the wikipedia page to demonstrate data dredging is also from me. I've been being naughty with data since 2014.
    Instead of starting with a hypothesis and testing it, I instead tossed a bunch of data in a blender to see what correlations would shake out. It’s a dangerous way to go about analysis, because any sufficiently large dataset will yield strong correlations completely at random.
  2. Lack of causal connection: There is probably no direct connection between these variables, despite what the AI says above. Because these pages are automatically generated, it's possible that the two variables you are viewing are in fact causually related. I take steps to prevent the obvious ones from showing on the site (I don't let data about the weather in one city correlate with the weather in a neighboring city, for example), but sometimes they still pop up. If they are related, cool! You found a loophole.
    This is exacerbated by the fact that I used "Years" as the base variable. Lots of things happen in a year that are not related to each other! Most studies would use something like "one person" in stead of "one year" to be the "thing" studied.
  3. Observations not independent: For many variables, sequential years are not independent of each other. You will often see trend-lines form. If a population of people is continuously doing something every day, there is no reason to think they would suddenly change how they are doing that thing on January 1. A naive p-value calculation does not take this into account. You will calculate a lower chance of "randomly" achieving the result than represents reality.

    To be more specific: p-value tests are probability values, where you are calculating the probability of achieving a result at least as extreme as you found completely by chance. When calculating a p-value, you need to assert how many "degrees of freedom" your variable has. I count each year (minus one) as a "degree of freedom," but this is misleading for continuous variables.

    This kind of thing can creep up on you pretty easily when using p-values, which is why it's best to take it as "one of many" inputs that help you assess the results of your analysis.
  4. Y-axes doesn't start at zero: I truncated the Y-axes of the graphs above. I also used a line graph, which makes the visual connection stand out more than it deserves. Nothing against line graphs. They are great at telling a story when you have linear data! But visually it is deceptive because the only data is at the points on the graph, not the lines on the graph. In between each point, the data could have been doing anything. Like going for a random walk by itself!
    Mathematically what I showed is true, but it is intentionally misleading. If you click on any of the charts that abuse this, you can scroll down to see a version that starts at zero.
  5. Confounding variable: Confounding variables (like global pandemics) will cause two variables to look connected when in fact a "sneaky third" variable is influencing both of them behind the scenes.
  6. Outliers: Some datasets here have outliers which drag up the correlation. In concept, "outlier" just means "way different than the rest of your dataset." When calculating a correlation like this, they are particularly impactful because a single outlier can substantially increase your correlation.

    Because this page is automatically generated, I don't know whether any of the charts displayed on it have outliers. I'm just a footnote. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
    I intentionally mishandeled outliers, which makes the correlation look extra strong.
  7. Low n: There are not many data points included in some of these charts. You can do analyses with low ns! But you shouldn't data dredge with a low n.
    Even if the p-value is high, we should be suspicious of using so few datapoints in a correlation.


Pro-tip: click on any correlation to see:

Project by Tyler Vigen
emailme@tylervigen.com · about · subscribe


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