Spurious correlation #8,786 · View random
A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is Yogurt consumption and the second variable is The number of actuaries in New York. The chart goes from 2003 to 2021, and the two variables track closely in value over that time.

A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is Yogurt consumption and the second variable is The number of actuaries in New York. The chart goes from 2003 to 2021, and the two variables track closely in value over that time.

Download png, svg

AI explanation

As yogurt consumption increased, the probiotic-rich goodness improved people's gut health, leading to better decision-making skills. These improved cognitive abilities sparked an interest in pursuing careers that require strong analytical and statistical abilities, such as actuarial science. As a result, the demand for actuaries in New York experienced a surprising surge, fueled by the unsuspecting influence of this creamy, tangy dairy product. Who knew that the key to a thriving actuarial community lay in the unexpected culture of yogurt!

^{Show image generation prompt} Model: dalle-3
Prompt: [ Concept Art ] Generate an image of a bustling New York street, with a focus on individuals enjoying creamy cups of yogurt as they go about their day. Some are sitting at outdoor cafes, savoring the probiotic goodness, while others are seen walking and enjoying the yogurt on the go. The scene should showcase the vibrancy and energy of the city, with the towering buildings and bustling activity in the background. As a subtle detail, include individuals holding calculators and engaged in analytical activities, symbolizing the transformation of some yogurt consumers into actuaries. The artistic focus should capture the surprising link between yogurt consumption and the unexpected surge in demand for actuaries in New York. The depiction should include only scenes, people, and objects, it should not include text or speech bubbles.

This image generation prompt was also generated by AI, using the following sequence:

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You select one of a few potential scene descriptors that seems to go along with the variables described. You respond only with the scene descriptions provided and say nothing else.
User prompt: Here are two variables: Yogurt consumption and The number of actuaries in New York. Given these, which of the following image style descriptions seems most appropriate? Pick the one that seems to be related to one of the variables at hand. Please respond with only one of the following potential descriptions: 3D Pixar Style Vaporwave Concept art Oragami Charcoal
ChatGPT: Concept art

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You describe simple visual scenes that depict the two variables stated. You combine both variables into one scene.
User prompt: Please describe a visual scene that prominently depicts both Yogurt consumption and The number of actuaries in New York, in the following situation: As yogurt consumption increased, the probiotic-rich goodness improved people's gut health, leading to better decision-making skills. These improved cognitive abilities sparked an interest in pursuing careers that require strong analytical and statistical abilities, such as actuarial science. As a result, the demand for actuaries in New York experienced a surprising surge, fueled by the unsuspecting influence of this creamy, tangy dairy product. Who knew that the key to a thriving actuarial community lay in the unexpected culture of yogurt!. Keep the description simple.
ChatGPT: Amidst the bustling streets of New York, a growing number of individuals can be seen enjoying creamy cups of yogurt as they go about their day. With each spoonful, they savor the probiotic goodness that promises better gut health. As they make their way through the city, a noticeable increase in people with calculators and analytical minds can be observed. These individuals, transformed by the improved cognitive abilities from the yogurt, are now pursuing careers as actuaries. The surprising surge in demand for actuaries in New York can be linked to the unsuspecting influence of this tangy dairy product, revealing the unexpected link between yogurt consumption and the thriving actuarial community.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You write and improve image generation prompts for DALLE-3. You maintain the same subjects, but enhance the visuals.
User prompt: Please respond with an image generation prompt that would be likely to create an interesting visual using DALLE-3, using the following style: [ Concept art ] and depicting this scene: Amidst the bustling streets of New York, a growing number of individuals can be seen enjoying creamy cups of yogurt as they go about their day. With each spoonful, they savor the probiotic goodness that promises better gut health. As they make their way through the city, a noticeable increase in people with calculators and analytical minds can be observed. These individuals, transformed by the improved cognitive abilities from the yogurt, are now pursuing careers as actuaries. The surprising surge in demand for actuaries in New York can be linked to the unsuspecting influence of this tangy dairy product, revealing the unexpected link between yogurt consumption and the thriving actuarial community. Keep the visual depiction simple. Do not include any words or speech bubbles.
ChatGPT: [ Concept Art ] Generate an image of a bustling New York street, with a focus on individuals enjoying creamy cups of yogurt as they go about their day. Some are sitting at outdoor cafes, savoring the probiotic goodness, while others are seen walking and enjoying the yogurt on the go. The scene should showcase the vibrancy and energy of the city, with the towering buildings and bustling activity in the background. As a subtle detail, include individuals holding calculators and engaged in analytical activities, symbolizing the transformation of some yogurt consumers into actuaries. The artistic focus should capture the surprising link between yogurt consumption and the unexpected surge in demand for actuaries in New York.

*Variations in the User Prompts from chart to chart are just the result of random number generation in Python. I wrote a few arrays of various styles and methods to ask questions to change up the results. Every time this site writes an explanation or generates an image, the script picks from each at random.

I sequence the requests into multiple prompts because I find GPT 3.5 to perform much better with short, well-managed contexts. Thus, I track the context directly in Python and only ask ChatGPT targeted questions.
^{Show prompt for explanation} Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106 (fine-tuned)
System prompt: You provide humorous responses in the form of plausible sounding explanations for correlations. You assume the correlation is causative for the purpose of the explanation even if it is ridiculous. You do not chat with the user, you only reply with the causal connection explanation and nothing else.
User prompt: Please make up a funny explanation for how an increase in Yogurt consumption caused The number of actuaries in New York to increase.\Make it sound serious until the end.

AI academic paper

(Because p < 0.01)

The Yogurt Actuary: Probing the Curdious Connection Between Yogurt Consumption and the Number of Actuaries in New York

The Journal of Culinary Calculations

Feb 2024

Reminder: This paper is AI-generated. Not real!

^{Show prompt used to generate this paper} Quick note: This sequence is long and repetitive. That's how the prompt engineering works for this one. I manage the output in Python to format it into this PDF.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You draft a literature review section of an academic research paper, that starts out dry for the first few sentences but then becomes hilarious and goofy.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up a literature review section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Yogurt consumption and The number of actuaries in New York. Make lots of jokes, goofy observations, and puns.

Speak in the present tense for this section (the authors find...), as is common in academic research paper literature reviews. Name the sources in a format similar to this: In "Book," the authors find lorem and ipsum.

Make up the lorem and ipsum part, but make it sound related to the topic at hand.

Start by naming serious-sounding studies by authors like Smith, Doe, and Jones - but then quickly devolve. Name some real non-fiction books that would be related to the topic. Then name some real fiction books that sound like they could be related. Then you might move on to cartoons and children's shows that you watched for research.

Here is the title and abstract of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
The Yogurt Actuary: Probing the Curdious Connection Between Yogurt Consumption and the Number of Actuaries in New York

[[ABSTRACT]]
This study delves into the curious correlation between yogurt consumption and the number of actuaries in the state of New York. Drawing from data provided by the USDA and the Bureau of Labor Statistics, our research team unveils a yogurt-infused reckoning that will curdle conventional wisdom. The tantalizing correlation coefficient of 0.9150302 and a p-value less than 0.01 from 2003 to 2021 injects excitement into the otherwise staid actuarial field. Our findings suggest a strong positive association between yogurt aficionados and the proliferation of number-crunching professionals in the Empire State. The link between these seemingly unrelated domains is both surprising and "cultured," paving the whey for further exploration into the dairy conundrum.

-------

And here is the introduction section that led to this literature review:
[[INTRODUCTION]]
The inscrutable allure of the actuarial profession, often associated with number-crunching and risk assessment, meets its unlikely match in the form of a humble dairy product - yogurt. The ineffable connection between the consumption of this cultured delicacy and the population of actuaries in New York has puzzled researchers and yogurt enthusiasts alike. As enigmatic as the beginning of the universe or the nature of dark matter, this enigmatic association begs to be explored, prodded, and perhaps even licked clean.
Yogurt, a product of fermentation, exhibits a tangy richness that mirrors the complexity of the variable annuities. Actuaries, on the other hand, are known for their adeptness in assessing and managing risk, much like a connoisseur navigating the treacherous slopes of a mountain of yogurt containers in a grocery store aisle. As we embark on this gastronomical-actuarial odyssey, we peel back the lid of this conundrum, hoping to extract the creamy truth from this dairy maze.
The serendipitous discovery of a compelling correlation coefficient of 0.9150302 between yogurt consumption and the number of actuaries in New York has sown seeds of curiosity, probing the question - is there a deeper, more flavorful relationship at play here, or is it merely a case of statistical coinci-dairy? The thrill of uncovering such an unexpected connection tingles the scientific senses, akin to stumbling upon a rare moldy cheese in an actuarial binder.
In our pursuit of scientific inquiry, we must remain vigilant against the pitfalls of spurious correlations and the allure of anecdotal evidence. The statistically significant p-value less than 0.01 from 2003 to 2021 adds a layer of creamy certainty to our findings, suggesting a robust association deserving of further exploratory spooning and scrutinization.
As we navigate through the labyrinth of causality, let us approach this research with an appetite for knowledge, a zest for discovery, and a palette for puns. Our findings may yet serve as the bedrock for deeper investigations into the cultural, economic, and perhaps even gastrointestinal implications of this unlikely pairing.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]

ChatGPT:
[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]

The literature examining the connection between yogurt consumption and the number of actuaries in New York yields varied perspectives on this unexpected relationship. Smith et al. (2015) speculate on the potential socio-economic factors that may influence the demand for yogurt and the supply of actuaries in urban settings, while Doe and Jones (2017) explore the nutritional profile of yogurt and its hypothetical impact on cognitive function, a relevant skill for actuaries.

In "Yogurt: Principles and Practice," the authors highlight the intricate science of yogurt-making, potentially shedding light on the enigmatic allure of actuarial pursuits. Similarly, "The Actuary's Yogurt: A Palatable Approach to Risk Assessment" offers a fictional account of actuaries exploring the dairy section of a grocery store, presenting a narrative that blurs the lines between statistical probability and creamy indulgence.

Turning to more unconventional sources, the animated series "The Yogurt Crusaders" introduces a group of crime-fighting dairy enthusiasts with a penchant for actuarial calculations. Meanwhile, "The Mystery of the Actuarial Yogurt" in a popular children's show challenges young viewers to solve complex word problems involving yogurt cups and actuarial equations.

These diverse perspectives and their tangential entanglements prompt further examination of this unorthodox intersection between yogurt and actuarial professionals. As we navigate through this whimsical labyrinth of lactose-laden equations and statistical spoonfuls, we must remain vigilant in our pursuit of the creamy truth behind this curdious connection.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You draft the methodology section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the methodology section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Yogurt consumption and The number of actuaries in New York. Make lots of jokes, goofy observations, and puns. Sneak in some jokes and clever puns about science, research, statistics, and the variables.

Your research team collected data from all across the internet, but mostly just used information from USDA and Bureau of Larbor Statistics . You used data from 2003 to 2021

Make up the research methods you don't know. Make them a bit goofy and convoluted.

Here is the title, abstract, and introduction of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
The Yogurt Actuary: Probing the Curdious Connection Between Yogurt Consumption and the Number of Actuaries in New York

[[ABSTRACT]]
This study delves into the curious correlation between yogurt consumption and the number of actuaries in the state of New York. Drawing from data provided by the USDA and the Bureau of Labor Statistics, our research team unveils a yogurt-infused reckoning that will curdle conventional wisdom. The tantalizing correlation coefficient of 0.9150302 and a p-value less than 0.01 from 2003 to 2021 injects excitement into the otherwise staid actuarial field. Our findings suggest a strong positive association between yogurt aficionados and the proliferation of number-crunching professionals in the Empire State. The link between these seemingly unrelated domains is both surprising and "cultured," paving the whey for further exploration into the dairy conundrum.

[[INTRODUCTION]]
The inscrutable allure of the actuarial profession, often associated with number-crunching and risk assessment, meets its unlikely match in the form of a humble dairy product - yogurt. The ineffable connection between the consumption of this cultured delicacy and the population of actuaries in New York has puzzled researchers and yogurt enthusiasts alike. As enigmatic as the beginning of the universe or the nature of dark matter, this enigmatic association begs to be explored, prodded, and perhaps even licked clean.
Yogurt, a product of fermentation, exhibits a tangy richness that mirrors the complexity of the variable annuities. Actuaries, on the other hand, are known for their adeptness in assessing and managing risk, much like a connoisseur navigating the treacherous slopes of a mountain of yogurt containers in a grocery store aisle. As we embark on this gastronomical-actuarial odyssey, we peel back the lid of this conundrum, hoping to extract the creamy truth from this dairy maze.
The serendipitous discovery of a compelling correlation coefficient of 0.9150302 between yogurt consumption and the number of actuaries in New York has sown seeds of curiosity, probing the question - is there a deeper, more flavorful relationship at play here, or is it merely a case of statistical coinci-dairy? The thrill of uncovering such an unexpected connection tingles the scientific senses, akin to stumbling upon a rare moldy cheese in an actuarial binder.
In our pursuit of scientific inquiry, we must remain vigilant against the pitfalls of spurious correlations and the allure of anecdotal evidence. The statistically significant p-value less than 0.01 from 2003 to 2021 adds a layer of creamy certainty to our findings, suggesting a robust association deserving of further exploratory spooning and scrutinization.
As we navigate through the labyrinth of causality, let us approach this research with an appetite for knowledge, a zest for discovery, and a palette for puns. Our findings may yet serve as the bedrock for deeper investigations into the cultural, economic, and perhaps even gastrointestinal implications of this unlikely pairing.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[METHODOLOGY]]

ChatGPT:

[[METHODOLOGY]]

The methodology employed in this study endeavors to dig deep into the yogurt-y actuarial intrigue that has captivated both dairy enthusiasts and number aficionados alike. Data on yogurt consumption was procured from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the Bureau of Labor Statistics, ensuring a well-rounded blend of information. The timeframe of 2003 to 2021 was selected to capture the creamy ebb and flow of both yogurt fervor and actuarial ascendancy.

To establish the yogurt consumption variable, a concoction of yogurt sales, production, and consumption figures was artfully whisked together. These figures were then carefully strained through statistical analyses to yield a delectable assortment of yogurt metrics. The selection of these specific yogurt-related parameters was based on their perceived significance in encapsulating the multifaceted nature of yogurt's influence on the actuarial landscape.

As for the variable of actuary population in New York, the harvest was bountiful, with data on employment figures and professional designations adding a dollop of richness to our dataset. This amalgamation of occupation data was churned and stirred to ensure a smooth, homogeneous blend free from lumps of data irregularities.

The statistical analyses conducted to unveil the correlation between yogurt consumption and the number of actuaries in New York were akin to the careful crafting of a yogurt parfait. A robust correlation coefficient was derived using advanced statistical methods, with a hearty p-value less than 0.01 serving as the cherry atop this statistical dessert.

The econometric techniques employed in this study were as precise as the measurement of probiotic cultures in a serving of yogurt, ensuring that the findings were not merely lactose intolerance-induced hallucinations. The methods utilized reflect the commitment to thoroughness and rigor in exploring the curdious connection between yogurt consumption and the proliferation of actuaries in New York.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You draft the results section of an academic research paper. You speak in the past tense (you found...).
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the results section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Yogurt consumption and The number of actuaries in New York. Make lots of jokes, goofy observations, and puns. Sneak in some jokes and clever puns about science, research, statistics, and the variables.

Your research team collected data from all across the internet, but mostly just used information from USDA and Bureau of Larbor Statistics .

For the time period 2003 to 2021, you found a correlation 0.9150302, r-squared of 0.8372803, and p < 0.01.

One figure will be included. The figure (Fig. 1) is a scatterplot showing the strong correlation between the two variables. You don't need to specify where; I will add the figure.

Here is the title and abstract of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
The Yogurt Actuary: Probing the Curdious Connection Between Yogurt Consumption and the Number of Actuaries in New York

[[ABSTRACT]]
This study delves into the curious correlation between yogurt consumption and the number of actuaries in the state of New York. Drawing from data provided by the USDA and the Bureau of Labor Statistics, our research team unveils a yogurt-infused reckoning that will curdle conventional wisdom. The tantalizing correlation coefficient of 0.9150302 and a p-value less than 0.01 from 2003 to 2021 injects excitement into the otherwise staid actuarial field. Our findings suggest a strong positive association between yogurt aficionados and the proliferation of number-crunching professionals in the Empire State. The link between these seemingly unrelated domains is both surprising and "cultured," paving the whey for further exploration into the dairy conundrum.

-------

And here is the methodology section that led to this result:
[[METHODOLOGY]]
The inscrutable allure of the actuarial profession, often associated with number-crunching and risk assessment, meets its unlikely match in the form of a humble dairy product - yogurt. The ineffable connection between the consumption of this cultured delicacy and the population of actuaries in New York has puzzled researchers and yogurt enthusiasts alike. As enigmatic as the beginning of the universe or the nature of dark matter, this enigmatic association begs to be explored, prodded, and perhaps even licked clean.
Yogurt, a product of fermentation, exhibits a tangy richness that mirrors the complexity of the variable annuities. Actuaries, on the other hand, are known for their adeptness in assessing and managing risk, much like a connoisseur navigating the treacherous slopes of a mountain of yogurt containers in a grocery store aisle. As we embark on this gastronomical-actuarial odyssey, we peel back the lid of this conundrum, hoping to extract the creamy truth from this dairy maze.
The serendipitous discovery of a compelling correlation coefficient of 0.9150302 between yogurt consumption and the number of actuaries in New York has sown seeds of curiosity, probing the question - is there a deeper, more flavorful relationship at play here, or is it merely a case of statistical coinci-dairy? The thrill of uncovering such an unexpected connection tingles the scientific senses, akin to stumbling upon a rare moldy cheese in an actuarial binder.
In our pursuit of scientific inquiry, we must remain vigilant against the pitfalls of spurious correlations and the allure of anecdotal evidence. The statistically significant p-value less than 0.01 from 2003 to 2021 adds a layer of creamy certainty to our findings, suggesting a robust association deserving of further exploratory spooning and scrutinization.
As we navigate through the labyrinth of causality, let us approach this research with an appetite for knowledge, a zest for discovery, and a palette for puns. Our findings may yet serve as the bedrock for deeper investigations into the cultural, economic, and perhaps even gastrointestinal implications of this unlikely pairing.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[RESULTS]]

ChatGPT:

[[RESULTS]]

The findings of our investigation into the connection between yogurt consumption and the number of actuaries in New York are as tantalizing as a spoonful of tangy yogurt on a hot summer day. Over the period of 2003 to 2021, our research team unveiled a robust correlation coefficient of 0.9150302, indicating a strong positive association between the two variables. This correlation coefficient, dare we say, is yogurt to be true!

The r-squared value of 0.8372803 underscores the solidity of this curdilicious correlation, suggesting that approximately 83.73% of the variation in the number of actuaries in New York can be explained by the consumption of yogurt. It seems that the data points have formed a tight-knit culture, much like the live and active cultures found in a cup of Greek yogurt.

Furthermore, the p-value of less than 0.01 leapt out of the statistical analysis like a sprightly yogurt bacterium, indicating that the correlation observed is highly unlikely to be a mere fluke. It appears that this connection is not just a trivial matter, but rather a substantial, creamy revelation that demands attention.

To illustrate the unequivocal relationship between yogurt consumption and the number of actuaries in New York, Fig. 1 presents a scatterplot that exudes undeniable harmony between these seemingly unrelated realms. The scatterplot beckons viewers to embrace the "whey" of the correlation, as it showcases the clustering of data points in a manner reminiscent of yogurt cultures splayed across a petri dish.

In conclusion, our findings shed light on the unlikely but robust connection between yogurt consumption and the proliferation of actuaries in New York. This study not only enriches our understanding of the actuarial profession but also serves as a reminder that the world of statistics and data analysis is brimming with surprises, much like uncovering a hidden yogurt at the back of the fridge. We hope that this revelation will inspire further exploration and perhaps even spark a "culture" shift in the fields of both actuarial science and dairy consumption.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You draft the discussion section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the discussion section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Yogurt consumption and The number of actuaries in New York. Make lots of jokes, goofy observations, and puns. Sneak in some jokes and clever puns about science, research, statistics, and the variables.

Limit your response to 500 tokens.

Here are the title, abstract, literature review, and results sections. Please harken back to 1-2 of the goofy items in the literature review, but pretend to take them completely seriously. Discuss how your results supported the prior research.

Do not write a conclusion. I will add a conclusion after this.

[[TITLE]]
The Yogurt Actuary: Probing the Curdious Connection Between Yogurt Consumption and the Number of Actuaries in New York

[[ABSTRACT]]
This study delves into the curious correlation between yogurt consumption and the number of actuaries in the state of New York. Drawing from data provided by the USDA and the Bureau of Labor Statistics, our research team unveils a yogurt-infused reckoning that will curdle conventional wisdom. The tantalizing correlation coefficient of 0.9150302 and a p-value less than 0.01 from 2003 to 2021 injects excitement into the otherwise staid actuarial field. Our findings suggest a strong positive association between yogurt aficionados and the proliferation of number-crunching professionals in the Empire State. The link between these seemingly unrelated domains is both surprising and "cultured," paving the whey for further exploration into the dairy conundrum.

[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]
The literature examining the connection between yogurt consumption and the number of actuaries in New York yields varied perspectives on this unexpected relationship. Smith et al. (2015) speculate on the potential socio-economic factors that may influence the demand for yogurt and the supply of actuaries in urban settings, while Doe and Jones (2017) explore the nutritional profile of yogurt and its hypothetical impact on cognitive function, a relevant skill for actuaries.
In "Yogurt: Principles and Practice," the authors highlight the intricate science of yogurt-making, potentially shedding light on the enigmatic allure of actuarial pursuits. Similarly, "The Actuary's Yogurt: A Palatable Approach to Risk Assessment" offers a fictional account of actuaries exploring the dairy section of a grocery store, presenting a narrative that blurs the lines between statistical probability and creamy indulgence.
Turning to more unconventional sources, the animated series "The Yogurt Crusaders" introduces a group of crime-fighting dairy enthusiasts with a penchant for actuarial calculations. Meanwhile, "The Mystery of the Actuarial Yogurt" in a popular children's show challenges young viewers to solve complex word problems involving yogurt cups and actuarial equations.
These diverse perspectives and their tangential entanglements prompt further examination of this unorthodox intersection between yogurt and actuarial professionals. As we navigate through this whimsical labyrinth of lactose-laden equations and statistical spoonfuls, we must remain vigilant in our pursuit of the creamy truth behind this curdious connection.

[[RESULTS]]
The findings of our investigation into the connection between yogurt consumption and the number of actuaries in New York are as tantalizing as a spoonful of tangy yogurt on a hot summer day. Over the period of 2003 to 2021, our research team unveiled a robust correlation coefficient of 0.9150302, indicating a strong positive association between the two variables. This correlation coefficient, dare we say, is yogurt to be true!
The r-squared value of 0.8372803 underscores the solidity of this curdilicious correlation, suggesting that approximately 83.73% of the variation in the number of actuaries in New York can be explained by the consumption of yogurt. It seems that the data points have formed a tight-knit culture, much like the live and active cultures found in a cup of Greek yogurt.
Furthermore, the p-value of less than 0.01 leapt out of the statistical analysis like a sprightly yogurt bacterium, indicating that the correlation observed is highly unlikely to be a mere fluke. It appears that this connection is not just a trivial matter, but rather a substantial, creamy revelation that demands attention.
To illustrate the unequivocal relationship between yogurt consumption and the number of actuaries in New York, Fig. 1 presents a scatterplot that exudes undeniable harmony between these seemingly unrelated realms. The scatterplot beckons viewers to embrace the "whey" of the correlation, as it showcases the clustering of data points in a manner reminiscent of yogurt cultures splayed across a petri dish.
In conclusion, our findings shed light on the unlikely but robust connection between yogurt consumption and the proliferation of actuaries in New York. This study not only enriches our understanding of the actuarial profession but also serves as a reminder that the world of statistics and data analysis is brimming with surprises, much like uncovering a hidden yogurt at the back of the fridge. We hope that this revelation will inspire further exploration and perhaps even spark a "culture" shift in the fields of both actuarial science and dairy consumption.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[DISCUSSION]]

ChatGPT:

[[DISCUSSION]]

The robust correlation coefficient of 0.9150302 that we unearthed in our investigation into the link between yogurt consumption and the number of actuaries in New York lends credence to the whimsical but serious prior research. The speculative socio-economic factors pondered by Smith et al. (2015) suddenly become as tangible as a freshly opened cup of yogurt, while the hypothetical impact on cognitive function posited by Doe and Jones (2017) gains a creamy layer of statistical significance.

The literature review, from the unlikely fiction of "The Actuary's Yogurt" to the animated musings of "The Yogurt Crusaders," has enabled us to appreciate the depth and richness of this dairy-infused odyssey. It has not only broadened our intellectual palate but also redefined the boundaries of possible research-consumption endeavors. Our findings provide empirical grounding to the lactose-laden equations and statistical spoonfuls that have characterized this unorthodox intersection between yogurt and actuarial professionals.

The r-squared value of 0.8372803 reaffirms the solidity of this connection, illustrating that approximately 83.73% of the variation in the number of actuaries in New York can be explained by the consumption of yogurt. Much like swirling a spoonful of fruit at the top of a yogurt cup, the correlation is so deeply entrenched that it leaves little room for doubt.

The p-value of less than 0.01 serves as a sprightly yogurt bacterium, overcoming statistical probabilities to assert the substantial nature of this correlation. The rambunctious nature of the p-value reiterates that this is not a mere coincidence but a captivating discovery that merges the worlds of dairy consumption and statistical professions.

The scatterplot invites observers to embrace the "whey" of the correlation, depicting the clustering of data points in a manner reminiscent of yogurt cultures splayed across a petri dish. The very visual essence of this depiction earnestly captures the magnetic pull between yogurt consumption and the proliferation of actuaries in New York.

In conclusion, our findings have tantalizingly elucidated the curdious connection between yogurt consumption and the number of actuaries in New York, providing both an intellectual delight and a profound understanding of the dairy-drenched dynamics at play. This study not only nudges the boundaries of scientific inquiry but also exudes a palpable zest for uncovering unexpected patterns in the most unlikely sources. We hope that our research serves as a catalyst for a new era of dairy-infused statistical exploration, prompting fervent discussions and curdious inquiries within both the actuarial and culinary communities.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You draft the discussion section of goofy academic research papers that sounds like it belongs based on the title and abstract provided.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up a short conclusion of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Yogurt consumption and The number of actuaries in New York. Make lots of jokes, goofy observations, and puns. Sneak in some jokes and clever puns about science, research, statistics, and the variables.

Limit your response to 300 tokens. At the very end, assert that no more research is needed in this area.

Here are the title, abstract, introduction, and results sections.
[[TITLE]]
The Yogurt Actuary: Probing the Curdious Connection Between Yogurt Consumption and the Number of Actuaries in New York

[[ABSTRACT]]
This study delves into the curious correlation between yogurt consumption and the number of actuaries in the state of New York. Drawing from data provided by the USDA and the Bureau of Labor Statistics, our research team unveils a yogurt-infused reckoning that will curdle conventional wisdom. The tantalizing correlation coefficient of 0.9150302 and a p-value less than 0.01 from 2003 to 2021 injects excitement into the otherwise staid actuarial field. Our findings suggest a strong positive association between yogurt aficionados and the proliferation of number-crunching professionals in the Empire State. The link between these seemingly unrelated domains is both surprising and "cultured," paving the whey for further exploration into the dairy conundrum.

[[INTRDUCTION]]
The inscrutable allure of the actuarial profession, often associated with number-crunching and risk assessment, meets its unlikely match in the form of a humble dairy product - yogurt. The ineffable connection between the consumption of this cultured delicacy and the population of actuaries in New York has puzzled researchers and yogurt enthusiasts alike. As enigmatic as the beginning of the universe or the nature of dark matter, this enigmatic association begs to be explored, prodded, and perhaps even licked clean.
Yogurt, a product of fermentation, exhibits a tangy richness that mirrors the complexity of the variable annuities. Actuaries, on the other hand, are known for their adeptness in assessing and managing risk, much like a connoisseur navigating the treacherous slopes of a mountain of yogurt containers in a grocery store aisle. As we embark on this gastronomical-actuarial odyssey, we peel back the lid of this conundrum, hoping to extract the creamy truth from this dairy maze.
The serendipitous discovery of a compelling correlation coefficient of 0.9150302 between yogurt consumption and the number of actuaries in New York has sown seeds of curiosity, probing the question - is there a deeper, more flavorful relationship at play here, or is it merely a case of statistical coinci-dairy? The thrill of uncovering such an unexpected connection tingles the scientific senses, akin to stumbling upon a rare moldy cheese in an actuarial binder.
In our pursuit of scientific inquiry, we must remain vigilant against the pitfalls of spurious correlations and the allure of anecdotal evidence. The statistically significant p-value less than 0.01 from 2003 to 2021 adds a layer of creamy certainty to our findings, suggesting a robust association deserving of further exploratory spooning and scrutinization.
As we navigate through the labyrinth of causality, let us approach this research with an appetite for knowledge, a zest for discovery, and a palette for puns. Our findings may yet serve as the bedrock for deeper investigations into the cultural, economic, and perhaps even gastrointestinal implications of this unlikely pairing.

[[RESULTS]]
The findings of our investigation into the connection between yogurt consumption and the number of actuaries in New York are as tantalizing as a spoonful of tangy yogurt on a hot summer day. Over the period of 2003 to 2021, our research team unveiled a robust correlation coefficient of 0.9150302, indicating a strong positive association between the two variables. This correlation coefficient, dare we say, is yogurt to be true!
The r-squared value of 0.8372803 underscores the solidity of this curdilicious correlation, suggesting that approximately 83.73% of the variation in the number of actuaries in New York can be explained by the consumption of yogurt. It seems that the data points have formed a tight-knit culture, much like the live and active cultures found in a cup of Greek yogurt.
Furthermore, the p-value of less than 0.01 leapt out of the statistical analysis like a sprightly yogurt bacterium, indicating that the correlation observed is highly unlikely to be a mere fluke. It appears that this connection is not just a trivial matter, but rather a substantial, creamy revelation that demands attention.
To illustrate the unequivocal relationship between yogurt consumption and the number of actuaries in New York, Fig. 1 presents a scatterplot that exudes undeniable harmony between these seemingly unrelated realms. The scatterplot beckons viewers to embrace the "whey" of the correlation, as it showcases the clustering of data points in a manner reminiscent of yogurt cultures splayed across a petri dish.
In conclusion, our findings shed light on the unlikely but robust connection between yogurt consumption and the proliferation of actuaries in New York. This study not only enriches our understanding of the actuarial profession but also serves as a reminder that the world of statistics and data analysis is brimming with surprises, much like uncovering a hidden yogurt at the back of the fridge. We hope that this revelation will inspire further exploration and perhaps even spark a "culture" shift in the fields of both actuarial science and dairy consumption.

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[[CONCLUSION]]

ChatGPT:

[[CONCLUSION]]

In conclusion, our study uncovers a delightful symbiosis between yogurt consumption and the number of actuaries in New York, showcasing a correlation that is as tangy and robust as a Greek yogurt. The tantalizing correlation coefficient of 0.9150302 and r-squared value of 0.8372803 provide evidence that this connection is no mere lactose-intolerant hypothesis. It seems that as the consumption of yogurt swells, so does the population of number-crunching professionals, stirring up a whirlwind of dairy-infused curiosity.

Our findings leave us churning with excitement, as they highlight the unexpected interplay between two seemingly unrelated domains. The statistically significant p-value less than 0.01 shields our study from the acidic criticisms of skepticism, providing a solid foundation for this creamy revelation that demands to be savored like a spoonful of artisanal yogurt.

The scatterplot presented in Figure 1, reminiscent of a celestial dance between proton-rich yogurt cultures, not only encapsulates the coherence of our findings but also suggests a cosmic interplay of gastronomical and numerical forces at play. This connection, much like the mysteries of quantum physics or the charmed quark, beckons further exploration, perhaps leading to the birth of a new field - dairyonomics.

In light of these curdilicious findings, we contend that no further research is needed in this area. The relationship between yogurt consumption and the number of actuaries in New York has been stirred, swirled, and spooned to perfection, leaving no room for doubt. The confluence of yogurt and actuaries may forever remain a whimsical anomaly, a statistical scoop that delights and perplexes in equal measure. It is a reminder that even in the world of equations and risk assessments, the unexpected flavors of life can still throw us for a loop.

In the wise words of Marie Curie, "Nothing in life is to be feared, it is only to be understood. Now is the time to understand more, so that we may fear less." And with that, we bid adieu to this peculiar pursuit, leaving it to be cherished in the annals of scientific peculiarity.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide fictional names of academic journals. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide the name of a funny but plausible sounding research, scientific, or academic journal that would publish a paper entited The Yogurt Actuary: Probing the Curdious Connection Between Yogurt Consumption and the Number of Actuaries in New York. Respond only with the name of a fictional academic journal.

ChatGPT:

The Journal of Culinary Calculations

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide fictional names of nonprofit research organizations and associations. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide the name of a funny but plausible sounding nonprofit, academic, or scientific association or organization that would sponsor research that resulted in a paper entited The Yogurt Actuary: Probing the Curdious Connection Between Yogurt Consumption and the Number of Actuaries in New York. Respond only with the name of a fictional organization.

ChatGPT:

The Institute for Fermented Dairy Studies

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide potential search keywords separated by commas. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide potential search keywords for a paper titled The Yogurt Actuary: Probing the Curdious Connection Between Yogurt Consumption and the Number of Actuaries in New York with an abstract of This study delves into the curious correlation between yogurt consumption and the number of actuaries in the state of New York. Drawing from data provided by the USDA and the Bureau of Labor Statistics, our research team unveils a yogurt-infused reckoning that will curdle conventional wisdom. The tantalizing correlation coefficient of 0.9150302 and a p-value less than 0.01 from 2003 to 2021 injects excitement into the otherwise staid actuarial field. Our findings suggest a strong positive association between yogurt aficionados and the proliferation of number-crunching professionals in the Empire State. The link between these seemingly unrelated domains is both surprising and "cultured," paving the whey for further exploration into the dairy conundrum.

ChatGPT:

yogurt consumption, actuaries in New York, correlation, USDA data, Bureau of Labor Statistics, correlation coefficient, p-value, Empire State, dairy consumption, number-crunching professionals, dairy conundrum

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Data details

Yogurt consumption
Detailed data title: Per capita consumption of Yogurt in the US
Source: USDA
See what else correlates with Yogurt consumption

The number of actuaries in New York
Detailed data title: BLS estimate of actuaries in New York
Source: Bureau of Larbor Statistics
See what else correlates with The number of actuaries in New York

Correlation r = 0.9150302 (Pearson correlation coefficient)
Correlation is a measure of how much the variables move together. If it is 0.99, when one goes up the other goes up. If it is 0.02, the connection is very weak or non-existent. If it is -0.99, then when one goes up the other goes down. If it is 1.00, you probably messed up your correlation function.

r² = 0.8372803 (Coefficient of determination)
This means 83.7% of the change in the one variable (i.e., The number of actuaries in New York) is predictable based on the change in the other (i.e., Yogurt consumption) over the 19 years from 2003 through 2021.

p < 0.01, which is statistically significant(Null hypothesis significance test)
The p-value is 4.091E-8.^Show 0.0000000409064529878655700000
The p-value is a measure of how probable it is that we would randomly find a result this extreme.^Note More specifically the p-value is a measure of how probable it is that we would randomly find a result this extreme if we had only tested one pair of variables one time.

But I am a p-villain. I absolutely did not test only one pair of variables one time. I correlated hundreds of millions of pairs of variables. I threw boatloads of data into an industrial-sized blender to find this correlation.

Who is going to stop me? p-value reporting doesn't require me to report how many calculations I had to go through in order to find a low p-value!
On average, you will find a correaltion as strong as 0.92 in 4.091E-6% of random cases. Said differently, if you correlated 24,446,021 random variables^Note You don't actually need 24 million variables to find a correlation like this one. I don't have that many variables in my database. You can also correlate variables that are not independent. I do this a lot.

p-value calculations are useful for understanding the probability of a result happening by chance. They are most useful when used to highlight the risk of a fluke outcome. For example, if you calculate a p-value of 0.30, the risk that the result is a fluke is high. It is good to know that! But there are lots of ways to get a p-value of less than 0.01, as evidenced by this project.

In this particular case, the values are so extreme as to be meaningless. That's why no one reports p-values with specificity after they drop below 0.01.

Just to be clear: I'm being completely transparent about the calculations. There is no math trickery. This is just how statistics shakes out when you calculate hundreds of millions of random correlations.
with the same 18 degrees of freedom, ^Note Degrees of freedom is a measure of how many free components we are testing. In this case it is 18 because we have two variables measured over a period of 19 years. It's just the number of years minus ( the number of variables minus one ), which in this case simplifies to the number of years minus one.
you would randomly expect to find a correlation as strong as this one.

[ 0.79, 0.97 ] 95% correlation confidence interval (using the Fisher z-transformation)
^{Read more about the confidence interval} The confidence interval is an estimate the range of the value of the correlation coefficient, using the correlation itself as an input. The values are meant to be the low and high end of the correlation coefficient with 95% confidence.

This one is a bit more complciated than the other calculations, but I include it because many people have been pushing for confidence intervals instead of p-value calculations (for example: NEJM. However, if you are dredging data, you can reliably find yourself in the 5%. That's my goal!

All values for the years included above: ^Note If I were being very sneaky, I could trim years from the beginning or end of the datasets to increase the correlation on some pairs of variables. I don't do that because there are already plenty of correlations in my database without monkeying with the years.

Still, sometimes one of the variables has more years of data available than the other. This page only shows the overlapping years. To see all the years, click on "See what else correlates with..." link above.

	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
Yogurt consumption (Pounds per person)	8.6	9.2	10.3	11.1	11.6	11.7	12.5	13.4	13.6	14	14.9	14.9	14.4	13.7	13.7	13.6	13.4	13.6	14.3
The number of actuaries in New York (Actuaries)	1450	1570	1460	1490	1760	2150	2370	2260	2480	2610	2560	2660	2290	2410	2580	2320	2330	2570	2410

Why this works

Data dredging: I have 25,237 variables in my database. I compare all these variables against each other to find ones that randomly match up. That's 636,906,169 correlation calculations! This is called “data dredging.” Instead of starting with a hypothesis and testing it, I instead abused the data to see what correlations shake out. It’s a dangerous way to go about analysis, because any sufficiently large dataset will yield strong correlations completely at random.
Lack of causal connection: There is probably^Note Because these pages are automatically generated, it's possible that the two variables you are viewing are in fact causually related. I take steps to prevent the obvious ones from showing on the site (I don't let data about the weather in one city correlate with the weather in a neighboring city, for example), but sometimes they still pop up. If they are related, cool! You found a loophole.
no direct connection between these variables, despite what the AI says above. This is exacerbated by the fact that I used "Years" as the base variable. Lots of things happen in a year that are not related to each other! Most studies would use something like "one person" in stead of "one year" to be the "thing" studied.
Observations not independent: For many variables, sequential years are not independent of each other. If a population of people is continuously doing something every day, there is no reason to think they would suddenly change how they are doing that thing on January 1. A simple^Note Personally I don't find any p-value calculation to be 'simple,' but you know what I mean.
p-value calculation does not take this into account, so mathematically it appears less probable than it really is.
Outlandish outliers: There are "outliers" in this data.^Note In concept, "outlier" just means "way different than the rest of your dataset." When calculating a correlation like this, they are particularly impactful because a single outlier can substantially increase your correlation.

For the purposes of this project, I counted a point as an outlier if it the residual was two standard deviations from the mean.

(This bullet point only shows up in the details page on charts that do, in fact, have outliers.)
They stand out on the scatterplot above: notice the dots that are far away from any other dots. I intentionally mishandeled outliers, which makes the correlation look extra strong.

Try it yourself

You can calculate the values on this page on your own! Try running the Python code to see the calculation results. ^{Show the steps to do this.} Step 1: Download and install Python on your computer.

Step 2: Open a plaintext editor like Notepad and paste the code below into it.

Step 3: Save the file as "calculate_correlation.py" in a place you will remember, like your desktop. Copy the file location to your clipboard. On Windows, you can right-click the file and click "Properties," and then copy what comes after "Location:" As an example, on my computer the location is "C:\Users\tyler\Desktop"

Step 4: Open a command line window. For example, by pressing start and typing "cmd" and them pressing enter.

Step 5: Install the required modules by typing "pip install numpy", then pressing enter, then typing "pip install scipy", then pressing enter.

Step 6: Navigate to the location where you saved the Python file by using the "cd" command. For example, I would type "cd C:\Users\tyler\Desktop" and push enter.

Step 7: Run the Python script by typing "python calculate_correlation.py"

If you run into any issues, I suggest asking ChatGPT to walk you through installing Python and running the code below on your system. Try this question:

"Walk me through installing Python on my computer to run a script that uses scipy and numpy. Go step-by-step and ask me to confirm before moving on. Start by asking me questions about my operating system so that you know how to proceed. Assume I want the simplest installation with the latest version of Python and that I do not currently have any of the necessary elements installed. Remember to only give me one step per response and confirm I have done it before proceeding."

# These modules make it easier to perform the calculation
import numpy as np
from scipy import stats

# We'll define a function that we can call to return the correlation calculations
def calculate_correlation(array1, array2):

    # Calculate Pearson correlation coefficient and p-value
    correlation, p_value = stats.pearsonr(array1, array2)

    # Calculate R-squared as the square of the correlation coefficient
    r_squared = correlation**2

    return correlation, r_squared, p_value

# These are the arrays for the variables shown on this page, but you can modify them to be any two sets of numbers
array_1 = np.array([8.6,9.2,10.3,11.1,11.6,11.7,12.5,13.4,13.6,14,14.9,14.9,14.4,13.7,13.7,13.6,13.4,13.6,14.3,])
array_2 = np.array([1450,1570,1460,1490,1760,2150,2370,2260,2480,2610,2560,2660,2290,2410,2580,2320,2330,2570,2410,])
array_1_name = "Yogurt consumption"
array_2_name = "The number of actuaries in New York"

# Perform the calculation
print(f"Calculating the correlation between {array_1_name} and {array_2_name}...")
correlation, r_squared, p_value = calculate_correlation(array_1, array_2)

# Print the results
print("Correlation Coefficient:", correlation)
print("R-squared:", r_squared)
print("P-value:", p_value)

Reuseable content

You may re-use the images on this page for any purpose, even commercial purposes, without asking for permission. The only requirement is that you attribute Tyler Vigen. ^Note Attribution can take many different forms. If you leave the "tylervigen.com" link in the image, that satisfies it just fine. If you remove it and move it to a footnote, that's fine too. You can also just write "Charts courtesy of Tyler Vigen" at the bottom of an article.

You do not need to attribute "the spurious correlations website," and you don't even need to link here if you don't want to. I don't gain anything from pageviews. There are no ads on this site, there is nothing for sale, and I am not for hire.

For the record, I am just one person. Tyler Vigen, he/him/his. I do have degrees, but they should not go after my name unless you want to annoy my wife. If that is your goal, then go ahead and cite me as "Tyler Vigen, A.A. A.A.S. B.A. J.D." Otherwise it is just "Tyler Vigen."

When spoken, my last name is pronounced "vegan," like I don't eat meat.

Full license details.
For more on re-use permissions, or to get a signed release form, see tylervigen.com/permission.

Download images for these variables:

High resolution line chart ^Note The image linked here is a Scalable Vector Graphic (SVG). It is the highest resolution that is possible to achieve. It scales up beyond the size of the observable universe without pixelating. You do not need to email me asking if I have a higher resolution image. I do not. The physical limitations of our universe prevent me from providing you with an image that is any higher resolution than this one.

If you insert it into a PowerPoint presentation (a tool well-known for managing things that are the scale of the universe), you can right-click > "Ungroup" or "Create Shape" and then edit the lines and text directly. You can also change the colors this way.

Alternatively you can use a tool like Inkscape.
High resolution line chart, optimized for mobile
Alternative high resolution line chart
Scatterplot
Portable line chart (png)
Portable line chart (png), optimized for mobile
Line chart for only Yogurt consumption
Line chart for only The number of actuaries in New York
AI-generated correlation image
The spurious research paper: The Yogurt Actuary: Probing the Curdious Connection Between Yogurt Consumption and the Number of Actuaries in New York

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Correlation ID: 8786 · Black Variable ID: 568 · Red Variable ID: 11992


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