Spurious correlation #4,374 · View random
A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is Popularity of the first name Cyrus and the second variable is Votes for the Republican Presidential candidate in South Carolina. The chart goes from 1976 to 2020, and the two variables track closely in value over that time.

A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is Popularity of the first name Cyrus and the second variable is Votes for the Republican Presidential candidate in South Carolina. The chart goes from 1976 to 2020, and the two variables track closely in value over that time.

Download png, svg

AI explanation

It’s simple, really. More people were naming their kids after Cyrus the Great, the ancient Persian ruler known for his military strategies. This led to a surge in interest in historical warfare tactics, swaying the South Carolina voters in favor of the Republican candidate’s approach to modern political battles.

^{Show image generation prompt} Model: dalle-3
Prompt: Generate a pop art-style image of a vibrant town square in South Carolina, with families enjoying a sunny day. On one side, children with the name Cyrus playfully run around, their laughter and energy captured in a dynamic, colorful manner. In another area, enthusiastic voters discuss the Republican candidate's strong stance on military and historical strategy, holding up support signs, with nods of agreement and enthusiasm evident in their expressions. The scene should showcase the bustling energy and newfound popularity for the name Cyrus, as well as the solid backing of the Republican candidate's campaign in a visually engaging way. The depiction should include only scenes, people, and objects, it should not include text or speech bubbles.

This image generation prompt was also generated by AI, using the following sequence:

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You select one of a few potential scene descriptors that seems to go along with the variables described. You respond only with the scene descriptions provided and say nothing else.
User prompt: Here are two variables: Popularity of the first name Cyrus and Votes for the Republican Presidential candidate in South Carolina. Given these, which of the following image style descriptions seems most appropriate? Pick the one that seems to be related to one of the variables at hand. Please respond with only one of the following potential descriptions: Low poly Parallax art Macabre Pop art Psychedelic
ChatGPT: Pop art

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You describe simple visual scenes that depict the two variables stated. You combine both variables into one scene.
User prompt: Please describe a visual scene that prominently depicts both Popularity of the first name Cyrus and Votes for the Republican Presidential candidate in South Carolina, in the following situation: It’s simple, really. More people were naming their kids after Cyrus the Great, the ancient Persian ruler known for his military strategies. This led to a surge in interest in historical warfare tactics, swaying the South Carolina voters in favor of the Republican candidate’s approach to modern political battles.. Keep the description simple.
ChatGPT: In South Carolina, a bustling town square is filled with families and friends. Children with the name Cyrus playfully run around, laughing and chatting about their shared heritage. Meanwhile, a group of enthusiastic voters discuss the Republican candidate's strong stance on military and historical strategy, nodding in agreement as they hold up their support signs. The energy in the air reflects both a newfound popularity for the name Cyrus and a solid backing of the Republican candidate's campaign.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You write and improve image generation prompts for DALLE-3. You maintain the same subjects, but enhance the visuals.
User prompt: Please respond with an image generation prompt that would be likely to create an interesting visual using DALLE-3, using the following style: [ Pop art ] and depicting this scene: In South Carolina, a bustling town square is filled with families and friends. Children with the name Cyrus playfully run around, laughing and chatting about their shared heritage. Meanwhile, a group of enthusiastic voters discuss the Republican candidate's strong stance on military and historical strategy, nodding in agreement as they hold up their support signs. The energy in the air reflects both a newfound popularity for the name Cyrus and a solid backing of the Republican candidate's campaign. Keep the visual depiction simple. Do not include any words or speech bubbles.
ChatGPT: Generate a pop art-style image of a vibrant town square in South Carolina, with families enjoying a sunny day. On one side, children with the name Cyrus playfully run around, their laughter and energy captured in a dynamic, colorful manner. In another area, enthusiastic voters discuss the Republican candidate's strong stance on military and historical strategy, holding up support signs, with nods of agreement and enthusiasm evident in their expressions. The scene should showcase the bustling energy and newfound popularity for the name Cyrus, as well as the solid backing of the Republican candidate's campaign in a visually engaging way.

*Variations in the User Prompts from chart to chart are just the result of random number generation in Python. I wrote a few arrays of various styles and methods to ask questions to change up the results. Every time this site writes an explanation or generates an image, the script picks from each at random.

I sequence the requests into multiple prompts because I find GPT 3.5 to perform much better with short, well-managed contexts. Thus, I track the context directly in Python and only ask ChatGPT targeted questions.
^{Show prompt for explanation} Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106 (fine-tuned)
System prompt: You provide humorous responses in the form of plausible sounding explanations for correlations. You assume the correlation is causative for the purpose of the explanation even if it is ridiculous. You do not chat with the user, you only reply with the causal connection explanation and nothing else.
User prompt: Please make up a funny explanation for how an increase in Popularity of the first name Cyrus caused Votes for the Republican Presidential candidate in South Carolina to increase.

AI academic paper

(Because p < 0.01)

Cyrus Inspires Voters to Aspire: A Sire-namely Study of Republican Presidential Votes in South Carolina

The Journal of Political Pop Culture

Jan 2024

Reminder: This paper is AI-generated. Not real!

^{Show prompt used to generate this paper} Quick note: This sequence is long and repetitive. That's how the prompt engineering works for this one. I manage the output in Python to format it into this PDF.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You draft a literature review section of an academic research paper, that starts out dry for the first few sentences but then becomes hilarious and goofy.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up a literature review section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Popularity of the first name Cyrus and Votes for the Republican Presidential candidate in South Carolina. You can't resist a good dad joke. Add a relevant dad joke related to the content every couple of sentences.

Speak in the present tense for this section (the authors find...), as is common in academic research paper literature reviews. Name the sources in a format similar to this: In "Book," the authors find lorem and ipsum.

Make up the lorem and ipsum part, but make it sound related to the topic at hand.

Start by naming serious-sounding studies by authors like Smith, Doe, and Jones - but then quickly devolve. Name some real non-fiction books that would be related to the topic. Then name some real fiction books that sound like they could be related. Then name some cartoons and childrens' shows that you watched that are related to the topic.

Here is the title and abstract of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
Cyrus Inspires Voters to Aspire: A Sire-namely Study of Republican Presidential Votes in South Carolina

[[ABSTRACT]]
This paper delves into the intriguing connection between the popularity of the first name Cyrus and votes for the Republican Presidential candidate in South Carolina. Utilizing data from the US Social Security Administration and the MIT Election Data and Science Lab, as well as the Harvard Dataverse, this study examines the correlation coefficient of 0.9836181 and p < 0.01 for the time span from 1976 to 2020. We found that as the popularity of the name Cyrus waxed, so did the votes for the Republican Presidential candidate in South Carolina, thus raising the question - is there a Cyrus effect on conservative voting patterns? Our findings provide a notable correlation, prompting us to quip that perhaps a "Cyrus" by any other name could sway the political game.

-------

And here is the introduction section that led to this literature review:
[[INTRODUCTION]]
The influence of names on various aspects of life has been a topic of fascination for both researchers and curious parents alike. A name is not just a label; it can carry historical, cultural, and social connotations. From the traditional to the trendy, names can shape perceptions and even influence decisions, knowingly or unknowingly. This study delves into the intriguing connection between the popularity of the first name Cyrus and votes for the Republican Presidential candidate in the state of South Carolina. One could say we are delving into the "Cyrus mysteries" of voter behavior.
The ancient Persians might have worshipped Cyrus the Great, but we are here to explore whether modern South Carolinians have been similarly inspired by the name. Perhaps, one might say, the name "Cyrus" carries a certain presidential ring to it.
Utilizing data from the US Social Security Administration and the MIT Election Data and Science Lab, as well as the Harvard Dataverse, we pored over decades of information to uncover any potential correlations between the rise and fall of the name Cyrus and the corresponding swing in votes for the Republican candidate. It’s almost as if we embarked on a "Cyrus quest" to decode the mysteries of conservative voting patterns.
Our findings reveal a striking correlation coefficient of 0.9836181 and p < 0.01, indicating a remarkably strong relationship between the popularity of the name Cyrus and Republican Presidential votes in South Carolina from 1976 to 2020. One might say that the "Cyrus effect" on voter behavior is not just a figment of the imagination.
As we unpack the implications of our findings, one might jest that perhaps we've uncovered a "Cyrus conspiracy" unfolding in the political landscapes of South Carolina. The idea that a name could have a significant impact on voting preferences may seem amusing, but the data suggests otherwise.
Stay tuned as we unravel the captivating correlation between a name and political preferences, and ponder on whether a "Cyrus surge" could sway the tides of the electoral sea.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]

ChatGPT:
[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]

The empirical investigation of the relationship between first names and political behavior has attracted the attention of scholars in various fields. In "Smith et al.," the authors find that names could have unforeseen impacts on individual attitudes and behaviors, with potential ramifications for electoral preferences. The potential influence of a name on political inclinations raises the intriguing question of whether a particular name, such as Cyrus, could sway conservative voting patterns in a given region.

Did you hear about the politician who went to the optometrist? He was looking for a new perspective! Similarly, the study by "Doe" delves into the psychological underpinnings of name associations and their potential impact on voting behaviors. This work highlights the importance of considering seemingly inconspicuous factors, such as names, in understanding political dynamics.

On the "Cyrus" note, let us explore the potential relevance of existing literature on the subject. Works such as "The Power of Names" and "The Name Dictionary" offer insights into the historical, symbolic, and cultural significance of names. Could the historical resonance of the name Cyrus have influenced its popularity and, in turn, its potential impact on voting patterns? The confluence of history, culture, and politics is indeed a fascinating area of study.

For a more whimsical twist, the fantasy novel "Name of the Wind" and the dystopian tale "Brave New World" both weave narratives that touch upon the power and symbolism of names. While these are works of fiction, they offer imaginative interpretations of the potential influence of names on societal constructs. One might even say that the "Cyrus effect" has been lurking in literature and folklore, waiting to captivate the minds of curious researchers.

Speaking of captivating influences, who could forget the animated series "The Magic School Bus" and its educational escapades? As Ms. Frizzle takes her students on whimsical journeys, one cannot help but wonder if the enigmatic connection between the name Cyrus and Republican Presidential votes in South Carolina might have sparked her curiosity. Perhaps there is a magical dimension to this correlation that merits further exploration.

Lastly, let us not overlook the classic children's show "Sesame Street," where memorable characters and playful learning experiences abound. In the spirit of lighthearted inquiry, one might jest that even the residents of Sesame Street could engage in spirited debates about the potential impact of the name Cyrus on political preferences. After all, who wouldn't want to see Elmo and Big Bird weigh in on the "Cyrus conundrum"?

As we navigate through the whimsical and scholarly realms of name associations and political behavior, the interplay of serious research and lighthearted musings encourages us to ponder the potential impact of names in shaping electoral outcomes. The "Cyrus phenomenon" continues to intrigue, beckoning us into a delightful and thought-provoking expedition.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You draft the discussion section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the discussion section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Popularity of the first name Cyrus and Votes for the Republican Presidential candidate in South Carolina. You can't resist a good dad joke. Add a relevant dad joke related to the content every couple of sentences.

Limit your response to 500 tokens.

Here are the title, abstract, literature review, and results sections. Please harken back to 1-2 of the goofy items in the literature review, but pretend to take them completely seriously. Discuss how your results supported the prior research.

Do not write a conclusion. I will add a conclusion after this.

[[TITLE]]
Cyrus Inspires Voters to Aspire: A Sire-namely Study of Republican Presidential Votes in South Carolina

[[ABSTRACT]]
This paper delves into the intriguing connection between the popularity of the first name Cyrus and votes for the Republican Presidential candidate in South Carolina. Utilizing data from the US Social Security Administration and the MIT Election Data and Science Lab, as well as the Harvard Dataverse, this study examines the correlation coefficient of 0.9836181 and p < 0.01 for the time span from 1976 to 2020. We found that as the popularity of the name Cyrus waxed, so did the votes for the Republican Presidential candidate in South Carolina, thus raising the question - is there a Cyrus effect on conservative voting patterns? Our findings provide a notable correlation, prompting us to quip that perhaps a "Cyrus" by any other name could sway the political game.

[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]
The empirical investigation of the relationship between first names and political behavior has attracted the attention of scholars in various fields. In "Smith et al.," the authors find that names could have unforeseen impacts on individual attitudes and behaviors, with potential ramifications for electoral preferences. The potential influence of a name on political inclinations raises the intriguing question of whether a particular name, such as Cyrus, could sway conservative voting patterns in a given region.
Did you hear about the politician who went to the optometrist? He was looking for a new perspective! Similarly, the study by "Doe" delves into the psychological underpinnings of name associations and their potential impact on voting behaviors. This work highlights the importance of considering seemingly inconspicuous factors, such as names, in understanding political dynamics.
On the "Cyrus" note, let us explore the potential relevance of existing literature on the subject. Works such as "The Power of Names" and "The Name Dictionary" offer insights into the historical, symbolic, and cultural significance of names. Could the historical resonance of the name Cyrus have influenced its popularity and, in turn, its potential impact on voting patterns? The confluence of history, culture, and politics is indeed a fascinating area of study.
For a more whimsical twist, the fantasy novel "Name of the Wind" and the dystopian tale "Brave New World" both weave narratives that touch upon the power and symbolism of names. While these are works of fiction, they offer imaginative interpretations of the potential influence of names on societal constructs. One might even say that the "Cyrus effect" has been lurking in literature and folklore, waiting to captivate the minds of curious researchers.
Speaking of captivating influences, who could forget the animated series "The Magic School Bus" and its educational escapades? As Ms. Frizzle takes her students on whimsical journeys, one cannot help but wonder if the enigmatic connection between the name Cyrus and Republican Presidential votes in South Carolina might have sparked her curiosity. Perhaps there is a magical dimension to this correlation that merits further exploration.
Lastly, let us not overlook the classic children's show "Sesame Street," where memorable characters and playful learning experiences abound. In the spirit of lighthearted inquiry, one might jest that even the residents of Sesame Street could engage in spirited debates about the potential impact of the name Cyrus on political preferences. After all, who wouldn't want to see Elmo and Big Bird weigh in on the "Cyrus conundrum"?
As we navigate through the whimsical and scholarly realms of name associations and political behavior, the interplay of serious research and lighthearted musings encourages us to ponder the potential impact of names in shaping electoral outcomes. The "Cyrus phenomenon" continues to intrigue, beckoning us into a delightful and thought-provoking expedition.

[[RESULTS]]
The correlation analysis revealed a strong positive association between the popularity of the first name Cyrus and votes for the Republican Presidential candidate in South Carolina. From 1976 to 2020, the correlation coefficient was 0.9836181, indicating a robust relationship between these two variables. It seems that as Cyrus rose in popularity, so did the support for the Republican candidate. One might say that "Cyrus" really struck a chord with South Carolina voters.
The r-squared value of 0.9675045 further confirms the substantial influence of the name Cyrus on Republican Presidential votes in South Carolina. It appears that the name "Cyrus" was not just a passing trend but had a lasting impact on conservative voting patterns. Perhaps we could say that Cyrus was the true "sire" of Republican support in the state.
Furthermore, the p-value of less than 0.01 indicates that the observed correlation is statistically significant, strengthening the validity of our findings. It seems that the impact of the name Cyrus on Republican votes in South Carolina cannot be dismissed as mere coincidence. One might joke that the "Cyrus effect" is nothing to be "sire-ious" about; it's a name to reckon with in the realm of political influence.
In Fig. 1, the scatterplot visually depicts the strong correlation between the popularity of the name Cyrus and the votes for the Republican Presidential candidate in South Carolina. The plot unmistakably shows a positive trend, affirming the persuasive power of the name Cyrus on conservative voting behavior. One might quip that the "Cyrus connection" is not just a figment of imagination; it's a real, data-backed phenomenon.
Therefore, our findings suggest that there is indeed a compelling connection between the popularity of the first name Cyrus and votes for the Republican Presidential candidate in South Carolina. Whether it's a mere coincidence or a testament to the name's influence, the "Cyrus phenomenon" in conservative voting patterns merits further investigation. One might say that the "Cyrus effect" is a name-driven force to be reckoned with in the political arena.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[DISCUSSION]]

ChatGPT:

[[DISCUSSION]]

The results of the current study provide compelling evidence of a strong association between the popularity of the first name Cyrus and votes for the Republican Presidential candidate in South Carolina. These findings align with previous research on the potential influence of names on political behavior. The notion that a particular name could sway conservative voting patterns, as suggested by "Smith et al.," is further bolstered by our robust correlation coefficient of 0.9836181. It seems that the name "Cyrus" truly has a persuasive prowess when it comes to shaping political preferences. One might quip that it's not just any old name; it's a name with a political game.

The literature review humorously touched upon the historical, symbolic, and cultural significance of names, echoing the serious consideration that is warranted when exploring seemingly inconspicuous factors such as names in understanding political dynamics. While the quips and puns about the significance of the name Cyrus may seem light-hearted, the statistical significance of our results emphasizes the potential impact of this name on conservative voting patterns. Even in the realm of scholarly inquiry, it seems that a catchy name can leave a lasting impression on political allegiances.

Our r-squared value of 0.9675045 further underscores the substantial influence of the name Cyrus on Republican Presidential votes in South Carolina. This supports the notion posited by "Doe" that names could have unforeseen impacts on individual attitudes and behaviors, potentially translating to electoral preferences. It's not just a name game; it's a serious statistical claim.

The statistically significant p-value of less than 0.01 lends further credence to the impact of the name Cyrus on Republican votes in South Carolina. The observed correlation appears to be more than coincidental, indicating that the "Cyrus effect" is indeed a force to be reckoned with. One might say it's a name that packs a statistical punch.

The scatterplot presented in Fig. 1 provides a visually compelling depiction of the pronounced correlation between the popularity of the name Cyrus and the votes for the Republican Presidential candidate in South Carolina. This visual representation aptly mirrors the persuasive power of the name Cyrus on conservative voting behavior, further reinforcing the gravity of the "Cyrus connection." It seems that when it comes to influencing political preferences, the name Cyrus is not just a joke; it's a serious statistical story.

In conclusion, the current study contributes to existing literature by substantiating the compelling connection between the popularity of the first name Cyrus and votes for the Republican Presidential candidate in South Carolina. The "Cyrus phenomenon" appears to be a legitimate, data-backed trend, prompting us to muse that the name Cyrus may be more than just a name; it's a potential political game-changer.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You draft the discussion section of goofy academic research papers that sounds like it belongs based on the title and abstract provided.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up a short conclusion of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Popularity of the first name Cyrus and Votes for the Republican Presidential candidate in South Carolina. You can't resist a good dad joke. Add a relevant dad joke related to the content every couple of sentences.

Limit your response to 300 tokens. At the very end, assert that no more research is needed in this area.

Here are the title, abstract, introduction, and results sections.
[[TITLE]]
Cyrus Inspires Voters to Aspire: A Sire-namely Study of Republican Presidential Votes in South Carolina

[[ABSTRACT]]
This paper delves into the intriguing connection between the popularity of the first name Cyrus and votes for the Republican Presidential candidate in South Carolina. Utilizing data from the US Social Security Administration and the MIT Election Data and Science Lab, as well as the Harvard Dataverse, this study examines the correlation coefficient of 0.9836181 and p < 0.01 for the time span from 1976 to 2020. We found that as the popularity of the name Cyrus waxed, so did the votes for the Republican Presidential candidate in South Carolina, thus raising the question - is there a Cyrus effect on conservative voting patterns? Our findings provide a notable correlation, prompting us to quip that perhaps a "Cyrus" by any other name could sway the political game.

[[INTRDUCTION]]
The influence of names on various aspects of life has been a topic of fascination for both researchers and curious parents alike. A name is not just a label; it can carry historical, cultural, and social connotations. From the traditional to the trendy, names can shape perceptions and even influence decisions, knowingly or unknowingly. This study delves into the intriguing connection between the popularity of the first name Cyrus and votes for the Republican Presidential candidate in the state of South Carolina. One could say we are delving into the "Cyrus mysteries" of voter behavior.
The ancient Persians might have worshipped Cyrus the Great, but we are here to explore whether modern South Carolinians have been similarly inspired by the name. Perhaps, one might say, the name "Cyrus" carries a certain presidential ring to it.
Utilizing data from the US Social Security Administration and the MIT Election Data and Science Lab, as well as the Harvard Dataverse, we pored over decades of information to uncover any potential correlations between the rise and fall of the name Cyrus and the corresponding swing in votes for the Republican candidate. It’s almost as if we embarked on a "Cyrus quest" to decode the mysteries of conservative voting patterns.
Our findings reveal a striking correlation coefficient of 0.9836181 and p < 0.01, indicating a remarkably strong relationship between the popularity of the name Cyrus and Republican Presidential votes in South Carolina from 1976 to 2020. One might say that the "Cyrus effect" on voter behavior is not just a figment of the imagination.
As we unpack the implications of our findings, one might jest that perhaps we've uncovered a "Cyrus conspiracy" unfolding in the political landscapes of South Carolina. The idea that a name could have a significant impact on voting preferences may seem amusing, but the data suggests otherwise.
Stay tuned as we unravel the captivating correlation between a name and political preferences, and ponder on whether a "Cyrus surge" could sway the tides of the electoral sea.

[[RESULTS]]
The correlation analysis revealed a strong positive association between the popularity of the first name Cyrus and votes for the Republican Presidential candidate in South Carolina. From 1976 to 2020, the correlation coefficient was 0.9836181, indicating a robust relationship between these two variables. It seems that as Cyrus rose in popularity, so did the support for the Republican candidate. One might say that "Cyrus" really struck a chord with South Carolina voters.
The r-squared value of 0.9675045 further confirms the substantial influence of the name Cyrus on Republican Presidential votes in South Carolina. It appears that the name "Cyrus" was not just a passing trend but had a lasting impact on conservative voting patterns. Perhaps we could say that Cyrus was the true "sire" of Republican support in the state.
Furthermore, the p-value of less than 0.01 indicates that the observed correlation is statistically significant, strengthening the validity of our findings. It seems that the impact of the name Cyrus on Republican votes in South Carolina cannot be dismissed as mere coincidence. One might joke that the "Cyrus effect" is nothing to be "sire-ious" about; it's a name to reckon with in the realm of political influence.
In Fig. 1, the scatterplot visually depicts the strong correlation between the popularity of the name Cyrus and the votes for the Republican Presidential candidate in South Carolina. The plot unmistakably shows a positive trend, affirming the persuasive power of the name Cyrus on conservative voting behavior. One might quip that the "Cyrus connection" is not just a figment of imagination; it's a real, data-backed phenomenon.
Therefore, our findings suggest that there is indeed a compelling connection between the popularity of the first name Cyrus and votes for the Republican Presidential candidate in South Carolina. Whether it's a mere coincidence or a testament to the name's influence, the "Cyrus phenomenon" in conservative voting patterns merits further investigation. One might say that the "Cyrus effect" is a name-driven force to be reckoned with in the political arena.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[CONCLUSION]]

ChatGPT:

[[CONCLUSION]]

In conclusion, our study has shed light on the captivating correlation between the popularity of the first name Cyrus and votes for the Republican Presidential candidate in South Carolina. Our findings indicate a robust relationship between these variables, prompting us to quip that the "Cyrus effect" is not just a play on words; it's a genuine driver of political behavior.

The data unequivocally suggests that there is a significant connection between the rise and fall of the name Cyrus and the corresponding swing in votes for the Republican candidate. One might say that Cyrus truly knows how to "republican" the right way to the ballot box.

Our findings also raise some "sire-ious" questions. Does the name Cyrus evoke a sense of leadership and authority that resonates with conservative voters? Could it be that South Carolinians are subconsciously swayed by the historical significance of the name? One might even jest that "Cyrus" seems to be a name that's truly "republican to be voted for."

Furthermore, the statistically significant correlation coefficient and p-value reaffirm the notion that the "Cyrus effect" on voter behavior is not just a statistical blip, but a substantial phenomenon that warrants attention. It seems that the "Cyrus surge" is not just a passing fad; it's a force to be reckoned with in the electoral landscape of South Carolina. One might say that when it comes to Republican votes, Cyrus has truly become the "name of the game."

In light of our compelling findings, it is our scholarly duty to affirm that no further research is needed in this area. We can safely conclude that the "Cyrus effect" is a name-driven force to be reckoned with in the realm of conservative voting patterns.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide fictional names of academic journals. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide the name of a funny but plausible sounding research, scientific, or academic journal that would publish a paper entited Cyrus Inspires Voters to Aspire: A Sire-namely Study of Republican Presidential Votes in South Carolina. Respond only with the name of a fictional academic journal.

ChatGPT:

The Journal of Political Pop Culture

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide fictional names of nonprofit research organizations and associations. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide the name of a funny but plausible sounding nonprofit, academic, or scientific association or organization that would sponsor research that resulted in a paper entited Cyrus Inspires Voters to Aspire: A Sire-namely Study of Republican Presidential Votes in South Carolina. Respond only with the name of a fictional organization.

ChatGPT:

The Institute for American Political Sire-namely Studies

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide potential search keywords separated by commas. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide potential search keywords for a paper titled Cyrus Inspires Voters to Aspire: A Sire-namely Study of Republican Presidential Votes in South Carolina with an abstract of This paper delves into the intriguing connection between the popularity of the first name Cyrus and votes for the Republican Presidential candidate in South Carolina. Utilizing data from the US Social Security Administration and the MIT Election Data and Science Lab, as well as the Harvard Dataverse, this study examines the correlation coefficient of 0.9836181 and p < 0.01 for the time span from 1976 to 2020. We found that as the popularity of the name Cyrus waxed, so did the votes for the Republican Presidential candidate in South Carolina, thus raising the question - is there a Cyrus effect on conservative voting patterns? Our findings provide a notable correlation, prompting us to quip that perhaps a "Cyrus" by any other name could sway the political game.

ChatGPT:

Cyrus popularity, Republican presidential votes, South Carolina, correlation coefficient, US Social Security Administration data, MIT Election Data and Science Lab, Harvard Dataverse, conservative voting patterns

*There is a bunch of Python happening behind the scenes to turn this prompt sequence into a PDF.

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Data details

Popularity of the first name Cyrus
Detailed data title: Babies of all sexes born in the US named Cyrus
Source: US Social Security Administration
See what else correlates with Popularity of the first name Cyrus

Votes for the Republican Presidential candidate in South Carolina
Detailed data title: Total votes cast for the Republican Presidential candidate in South Carolina
Source: MIT Election Data and Science Lab, Harvard Dataverse
See what else correlates with Votes for the Republican Presidential candidate in South Carolina

Correlation r = 0.9836181 (Pearson correlation coefficient)
Correlation is a measure of how much the variables move together. If it is 0.99, when one goes up the other goes up. If it is 0.02, the connection is very weak or non-existent. If it is -0.99, then when one goes up the other goes down. If it is 1.00, you probably messed up your correlation function.

r² = 0.9675045 (Coefficient of determination)
This means 96.8% of the change in the one variable (i.e., Votes for the Republican Presidential candidate in South Carolina) is predictable based on the change in the other (i.e., Popularity of the first name Cyrus) over the 12 years from 1976 through 2020.

p < 0.01, which is statistically significant(Null hypothesis significance test)
The p-value is 9.04E-9.^Show 0.0000000090403165957564860000
The p-value is a measure of how probable it is that we would randomly find a result this extreme.^Note More specifically the p-value is a measure of how probable it is that we would randomly find a result this extreme if we had only tested one pair of variables one time.

But I am a p-villain. I absolutely did not test only one pair of variables one time. I correlated hundreds of millions of pairs of variables. I threw boatloads of data into an industrial-sized blender to find this correlation.

Who is going to stop me? p-value reporting doesn't require me to report how many calculations I had to go through in order to find a low p-value!
On average, you will find a correaltion as strong as 0.98 in 9.04E-7% of random cases. Said differently, if you correlated 110,615,595 random variables^Note You don't actually need 110 million variables to find a correlation like this one. I don't have that many variables in my database. You can also correlate variables that are not independent. I do this a lot.

p-value calculations are useful for understanding the probability of a result happening by chance. They are most useful when used to highlight the risk of a fluke outcome. For example, if you calculate a p-value of 0.30, the risk that the result is a fluke is high. It is good to know that! But there are lots of ways to get a p-value of less than 0.01, as evidenced by this project.

In this particular case, the values are so extreme as to be meaningless. That's why no one reports p-values with specificity after they drop below 0.01.

Just to be clear: I'm being completely transparent about the calculations. There is no math trickery. This is just how statistics shakes out when you calculate hundreds of millions of random correlations.
with the same 11 degrees of freedom, ^Note Degrees of freedom is a measure of how many free components we are testing. In this case it is 11 because we have two variables measured over a period of 12 years. It's just the number of years minus ( the number of variables minus one ), which in this case simplifies to the number of years minus one.
you would randomly expect to find a correlation as strong as this one.

[ 0.94, 1 ] 95% correlation confidence interval (using the Fisher z-transformation)
^{Read more about the confidence interval} The confidence interval is an estimate the range of the value of the correlation coefficient, using the correlation itself as an input. The values are meant to be the low and high end of the correlation coefficient with 95% confidence.

This one is a bit more complciated than the other calculations, but I include it because many people have been pushing for confidence intervals instead of p-value calculations (for example: NEJM. However, if you are dredging data, you can reliably find yourself in the 5%. That's my goal!

All values for the years included above: ^Note If I were being very sneaky, I could trim years from the beginning or end of the datasets to increase the correlation on some pairs of variables. I don't do that because there are already plenty of correlations in my database without monkeying with the years.

Still, sometimes one of the variables has more years of data available than the other. This page only shows the overlapping years. To see all the years, click on "See what else correlates with..." link above.

	1976	1980	1984	1988	1992	1996	2000	2004	2008	2012	2016	2020
Popularity of the first name Cyrus (Babies born)	77	160	161	166	200	209	397	473	539	583	732	852
Votes for the Republican Presidential candidate in South Carolina (Total votes)	346149	439277	615539	606443	577507	573339	786892	937974	1034900	1071640	1155390	1385100

Why this works

Data dredging: I have 25,153 variables in my database. I compare all these variables against each other to find ones that randomly match up. That's 632,673,409 correlation calculations! This is called “data dredging.” Instead of starting with a hypothesis and testing it, I instead abused the data to see what correlations shake out. It’s a dangerous way to go about analysis, because any sufficiently large dataset will yield strong correlations completely at random.
Lack of causal connection: There is probably^Note Because these pages are automatically generated, it's possible that the two variables you are viewing are in fact causually related. I take steps to prevent the obvious ones from showing on the site (I don't let data about the weather in one city correlate with the weather in a neighboring city, for example), but sometimes they still pop up. If they are related, cool! You found a loophole.
no direct connection between these variables, despite what the AI says above. This is exacerbated by the fact that I used "Years" as the base variable. Lots of things happen in a year that are not related to each other! Most studies would use something like "one person" in stead of "one year" to be the "thing" studied.
Observations not independent: For many variables, sequential years are not independent of each other. If a population of people is continuously doing something every day, there is no reason to think they would suddenly change how they are doing that thing on January 1. A simple^Note Personally I don't find any p-value calculation to be 'simple,' but you know what I mean.
p-value calculation does not take this into account, so mathematically it appears less probable than it really is.
Confounding variable: 2020 is particularly different from the other years on this graph. Confounding variables (like global pandemics) will cause two variables to look connected when in fact a "sneaky third" variable is influencing both of them behind the scenes.

Try it yourself

You can calculate the values on this page on your own! Try running the Python code to see the calculation results. ^{Show the steps to do this.} Step 1: Download and install Python on your computer.

Step 2: Open a plaintext editor like Notepad and paste the code below into it.

Step 3: Save the file as "calculate_correlation.py" in a place you will remember, like your desktop. Copy the file location to your clipboard. On Windows, you can right-click the file and click "Properties," and then copy what comes after "Location:" As an example, on my computer the location is "C:\Users\tyler\Desktop"

Step 4: Open a command line window. For example, by pressing start and typing "cmd" and them pressing enter.

Step 5: Install the required modules by typing "pip install numpy", then pressing enter, then typing "pip install scipy", then pressing enter.

Step 6: Navigate to the location where you saved the Python file by using the "cd" command. For example, I would type "cd C:\Users\tyler\Desktop" and push enter.

Step 7: Run the Python script by typing "python calculate_correlation.py"

If you run into any issues, I suggest asking ChatGPT to walk you through installing Python and running the code below on your system. Try this question:

"Walk me through installing Python on my computer to run a script that uses scipy and numpy. Go step-by-step and ask me to confirm before moving on. Start by asking me questions about my operating system so that you know how to proceed. Assume I want the simplest installation with the latest version of Python and that I do not currently have any of the necessary elements installed. Remember to only give me one step per response and confirm I have done it before proceeding."

# These modules make it easier to perform the calculation
import numpy as np
from scipy import stats

# We'll define a function that we can call to return the correlation calculations
def calculate_correlation(array1, array2):

    # Calculate Pearson correlation coefficient and p-value
    correlation, p_value = stats.pearsonr(array1, array2)

    # Calculate R-squared as the square of the correlation coefficient
    r_squared = correlation**2

    return correlation, r_squared, p_value

# These are the arrays for the variables shown on this page, but you can modify them to be any two sets of numbers
array_1 = np.array([77,160,161,166,200,209,397,473,539,583,732,852,])
array_2 = np.array([346149,439277,615539,606443,577507,573339,786892,937974,1034900,1071640,1155390,1385100,])
array_1_name = "Popularity of the first name Cyrus"
array_2_name = "Votes for the Republican Presidential candidate in South Carolina"

# Perform the calculation
print(f"Calculating the correlation between {array_1_name} and {array_2_name}...")
correlation, r_squared, p_value = calculate_correlation(array_1, array_2)

# Print the results
print("Correlation Coefficient:", correlation)
print("R-squared:", r_squared)
print("P-value:", p_value)

Reuseable content

You may re-use the images on this page for any purpose, even commercial purposes, without asking for permission. The only requirement is that you attribute Tyler Vigen. ^Note Attribution can take many different forms. If you leave the "tylervigen.com" link in the image, that satisfies it just fine. If you remove it and move it to a footnote, that's fine too. You can also just write "Charts courtesy of Tyler Vigen" at the bottom of an article.

You do not need to attribute "the spurious correlations website," and you don't even need to link here if you don't want to. I don't gain anything from pageviews. There are no ads on this site, there is nothing for sale, and I am not for hire.

For the record, I am just one person. Tyler Vigen, he/him/his. I do have degrees, but they should not go after my name unless you want to annoy my wife. If that is your goal, then go ahead and cite me as "Tyler Vigen, A.A. A.A.S. B.A. J.D." Otherwise it is just "Tyler Vigen."

When spoken, my last name is pronounced "vegan," like I don't eat meat.

Full license details.
For more on re-use permissions, or to get a signed release form, see tylervigen.com/permission.

Download images for these variables:

High resolution line chart ^Note The image linked here is a Scalable Vector Graphic (SVG). It is the highest resolution that is possible to achieve. It scales up beyond the size of the observable universe without pixelating. You do not need to email me asking if I have a higher resolution image. I do not. The physical limitations of our universe prevent me from providing you with an image that is any higher resolution than this one.

If you insert it into a PowerPoint presentation (a tool well-known for managing things that are the scale of the universe), you can right-click > "Ungroup" or "Create Shape" and then edit the lines and text directly. You can also change the colors this way.

Alternatively you can use a tool like Inkscape.
High resolution line chart, optimized for mobile
Alternative high resolution line chart
Scatterplot
Portable line chart (png)
Portable line chart (png), optimized for mobile
Line chart for only Popularity of the first name Cyrus
Line chart for only Votes for the Republican Presidential candidate in South Carolina
AI-generated correlation image
The spurious research paper: Cyrus Inspires Voters to Aspire: A Sire-namely Study of Republican Presidential Votes in South Carolina

View another random correlation

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Correlation ID: 4374 · Black Variable ID: 3612 · Red Variable ID: 26029


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