Spurious correlation #4,253 · View random
A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is Popularity of the first name Beau and the second variable is Brown-Forman's stock price (BF.B). The chart goes from 2002 to 2022, and the two variables track closely in value over that time.

A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is Popularity of the first name Beau and the second variable is Brown-Forman's stock price (BF.B). The chart goes from 2002 to 2022, and the two variables track closely in value over that time.

Download png, svg

AI explanation

The more babies named Beau, the higher the demand for cute monogrammed baby bibs, leading to a spike in sales for Brown-Forman's subsidiary, Baby Bourbon Bibs Inc. This unexpected revenue boost sent Brown-Forman's stock price soaring, much to the bewilderment of the financial world.

^{Show image generation prompt} Model: dalle-3
Prompt: Prompt: Create an image of a bustling street with a trendy bar named "Beau's Whiskey Lounge." The bar has a sleek sign indicating the name "Beau" and prominently displaying the logo of Brown-Forman's stock price (BF.B). Inside, young professionals are seen chatting and clinking glasses while checking their smartphones. There is a palpable sense of excitement in the air as they seem to be discussing stocks and naming trends. The scene should embody the essence of surrealism, presenting a dreamlike and visually captivating interpretation of the setting. The depiction should include only scenes, people, and objects, it should not include text or speech bubbles.

This image generation prompt was also generated by AI, using the following sequence:

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You select one of a few potential scene descriptors that seems to go along with the variables described. You respond only with the scene descriptions provided and say nothing else.
User prompt: Here are two variables: Popularity of the first name Beau and Brown-Forman's stock price (BF.B). Given these, which of the following image style descriptions seems most appropriate? Pick the one that seems to be related to one of the variables at hand. Please respond with only one of the following potential descriptions: Art nouveau Voxel art Concept art Psychedelic Surrealism
ChatGPT: Surrealism

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You describe simple visual scenes that depict the two variables stated. You combine both variables into one scene.
User prompt: Please describe a visual scene that prominently depicts both Popularity of the first name Beau and Brown-Forman's stock price (BF.B), in the following situation: As the saying goes, "Beau knows bourbon!" The surge in popularity of the name Beau has sparked a renewed interest in all things "beau-tiful," including premium spirits. As more parents are naming their sons Beau, there's been a trickle-down effect on the stock market as well. It's as if the name itself has imbued an air of sophistication and refinement, leading investors to flock to Brown-Forman's stock like bees to a honeypot. With a name like Beau on the rise, it seems that even Wall Street can't resist raising a glass to Brown-Forman's success. Cheers to the Beau-tiful synergy between naming trends and stock prices!. Keep the description simple.
ChatGPT: In a bustling street, a trendy bar with a sleek sign that reads "Beau's Whiskey Lounge" is filled with young professionals chatting and clinking glasses. The name "Beau" is prominently displayed on the bar's entrance, alongside the logo of Brown-Forman's stock price (BF.B). The bar's patrons are seen checking their smartphones, and there’s a buzz of excitement in the air, as if they are discussing stocks and naming trends in the same breath.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You write and improve image generation prompts for DALLE-3. You maintain the same subjects, but enhance the visuals.
User prompt: Please respond with an image generation prompt that would be likely to create an interesting visual using DALLE-3, using the following style: [ Surrealism ] and depicting this scene: In a bustling street, a trendy bar with a sleek sign that reads "Beau's Whiskey Lounge" is filled with young professionals chatting and clinking glasses. The name "Beau" is prominently displayed on the bar's entrance, alongside the logo of Brown-Forman's stock price (BF.B). The bar's patrons are seen checking their smartphones, and there’s a buzz of excitement in the air, as if they are discussing stocks and naming trends in the same breath. Keep the visual depiction simple. Do not include any words or speech bubbles.
ChatGPT: Prompt: Create an image of a bustling street with a trendy bar named "Beau's Whiskey Lounge." The bar has a sleek sign indicating the name "Beau" and prominently displaying the logo of Brown-Forman's stock price (BF.B). Inside, young professionals are seen chatting and clinking glasses while checking their smartphones. There is a palpable sense of excitement in the air as they seem to be discussing stocks and naming trends. The scene should embody the essence of surrealism, presenting a dreamlike and visually captivating interpretation of the setting.

*Variations in the User Prompts from chart to chart are just the result of random number generation in Python. I wrote a few arrays of various styles and methods to ask questions to change up the results. Every time this site writes an explanation or generates an image, the script picks from each at random.

I sequence the requests into multiple prompts because I find GPT 3.5 to perform much better with short, well-managed contexts. Thus, I track the context directly in Python and only ask ChatGPT targeted questions.
^{Show prompt for explanation} Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106 (fine-tuned)
System prompt: You provide humorous responses in the form of plausible sounding explanations for correlations. You assume the correlation is causative for the purpose of the explanation even if it is ridiculous. You do not chat with the user, you only reply with the causal connection explanation and nothing else.
User prompt: Please make up a funny explanation for how an increase in Popularity of the first name Beau caused Brown-Forman's stock price (BF.B) to increase.

AI academic paper

(Because p < 0.01)

Beau the Name, BF.B the Stock: A Beau-tiful Connection?

The Journal of Linguistic Puns

Jan 2024

Reminder: This paper is AI-generated. Not real!

^{Show prompt used to generate this paper} Quick note: This sequence is long and repetitive. That's how the prompt engineering works for this one. I manage the output in Python to format it into this PDF.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You draft a literature review section of an academic research paper, that starts out dry for the first few sentences but then becomes hilarious and goofy.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up a literature review section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Popularity of the first name Beau and Brown-Forman's stock price (BF.B). Make lots of jokes, goofy observations, and puns.

Speak in the present tense for this section (the authors find...), as is common in academic research paper literature reviews. Name the sources in a format similar to this: In "Book," the authors find lorem and ipsum.

Make up the lorem and ipsum part, but make it sound related to the topic at hand.

Start by naming serious-sounding studies by authors like Smith, Doe, and Jones - but then quickly devolve. Name some real non-fiction books that would be related to the topic. Then name some real fiction books that sound like they could be related. Then name a few real TV shows that sound like they might be relevant to the topic that you watched as research.

Here is the title and abstract of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
Beau the Name, BF.B the Stock: A Beau-tiful Connection?

[[ABSTRACT]]
This paper examines the often neglected relationship between the popularity of the first name "Beau" and the stock price of Brown-Forman Corporation (BF.B). Using data from the US Social Security Administration and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv) from 2002 to 2022, we found a surprisingly high correlation coefficient of 0.9812493 and a p-value less than 0.01, suggesting a strong statistical association. Our findings raise questions about the potential impact of name trends on financial markets and highlight the need for further investigation into the influence of baby names on stock performance. This research juxtaposes the whimsical world of baby names with the serious realm of stock prices, bringing new meaning to the phrase "stock market beau-mance."

-------

And here is the introduction section that led to this literature review:
[[INTRODUCTION]]
The influence of seemingly unrelated factors on stock prices has long been a topic of interest in financial research. While traditional economic theories focus on market fundamentals, the possibility of non-financial variables affecting stock performance has often been overlooked. One such intriguing factor is the popularity of first names and its potential correlation with stock prices.
In this paper, we delve into the curious relationship between the first name "Beau" and the stock price of Brown-Forman Corporation (BF.B). This unlikely pairing takes us on a journey through the whimsical world of baby names and the serious realm of financial markets, shedding light on a connection that may seem as improbable as a newborn influencing the stock exchange.
The choice of the name "Beau" as the subject of study is not arbitrary; rather, it is a nod to the aesthetic appeal of investigating such an unexpected association. Additionally, the stock symbol "BF.B" humorously echoes the essence of the name "Beau," inviting us to ponder if there is indeed a beau-tiful relationship between the two.
As we embark on this scholarly exploration, we aim to bring a touch of levity to the often-dense landscape of financial research, recognizing the importance of blending seriousness with an occasional splash of whimsy. This investigation, therefore, seeks to marry the playful fascination with baby names with the rigors of stock market analysis, creating a scholarly juxtaposition that is both engaging and informative.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]

ChatGPT:
[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]

The relationship between the popularity of the first name "Beau" and the stock price of Brown-Forman Corporation (BF.B) has been a topic that has piqued the interest of researchers in recent years. In "Smith et al.," the authors find a moderate positive correlation between the frequency of the name "Beau" and the stock price of BF.B, sparking initial curiosity about the potential connection between baby names and financial markets. Similarly, in "Doe and Jones," the authors suggest a possible link between the popularity of first names and stock performance, laying the groundwork for further investigation into this unconventional relationship.

Building on this early research, "Brown" explores the psychological implications of name popularity on consumer behavior and market trends, shedding light on the subtle yet influential impact of nomenclature in the financial sphere. Meanwhile, "White" investigates the cultural significance of names and their resonance in the realm of investments, offering a compelling narrative on the intersection of personal identity and stock market dynamics.

In the realm of non-fiction literature, "Freakonomics" by Steven D. Levitt and Stephen J. Dubner provides a thought-provoking perspective on the hidden forces shaping the world of finance, inviting readers to consider unconventional aspects of economic decision-making. Moreover, "Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking" by Malcolm Gladwell delves into the subconscious factors that influence human judgment, presenting compelling insights that resonate with the nuanced exploration of name popularity and stock prices.

Turning to fictional works, the thematic resonance of "The Alchemist" by Paulo Coelho offers an allegorical reflection on the interconnectedness of seemingly disparate elements, echoing the intricate relationship between baby names and stock performance that underpins this research endeavor. Furthermore, "The Name of the Wind" by Patrick Rothfuss weaves a captivating tale of destiny and perception, mirroring the unexpected narrative of the influence of the name "Beau" on the stock symbol BF.B.

As part of the preparatory phase for this investigation, the researchers also engaged with popular television shows that may offer tangential insights on the topic at hand. "Mad Money with Jim Cramer" and "The Big Bang Theory" were both instrumental in providing a lighthearted yet informative backdrop for understanding the idiosyncrasies of financial markets and the quirky potential influence of baby names on stock prices.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You draft the methodology section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the methodology section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Popularity of the first name Beau and Brown-Forman's stock price (BF.B). Make lots of jokes, goofy observations, and puns. Stay serious and dry most of the time, but then occasionally let your wit shine through.

Your research team collected data from all across the internet, but mostly just used information from US Social Security Administration and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv) . You used data from 2002 to 2022

Make up the research methods you don't know. Make them a bit goofy and convoluted.

Here is the title, abstract, and introduction of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
Beau the Name, BF.B the Stock: A Beau-tiful Connection?

[[ABSTRACT]]
This paper examines the often neglected relationship between the popularity of the first name "Beau" and the stock price of Brown-Forman Corporation (BF.B). Using data from the US Social Security Administration and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv) from 2002 to 2022, we found a surprisingly high correlation coefficient of 0.9812493 and a p-value less than 0.01, suggesting a strong statistical association. Our findings raise questions about the potential impact of name trends on financial markets and highlight the need for further investigation into the influence of baby names on stock performance. This research juxtaposes the whimsical world of baby names with the serious realm of stock prices, bringing new meaning to the phrase "stock market beau-mance."

[[INTRODUCTION]]
The influence of seemingly unrelated factors on stock prices has long been a topic of interest in financial research. While traditional economic theories focus on market fundamentals, the possibility of non-financial variables affecting stock performance has often been overlooked. One such intriguing factor is the popularity of first names and its potential correlation with stock prices.
In this paper, we delve into the curious relationship between the first name "Beau" and the stock price of Brown-Forman Corporation (BF.B). This unlikely pairing takes us on a journey through the whimsical world of baby names and the serious realm of financial markets, shedding light on a connection that may seem as improbable as a newborn influencing the stock exchange.
The choice of the name "Beau" as the subject of study is not arbitrary; rather, it is a nod to the aesthetic appeal of investigating such an unexpected association. Additionally, the stock symbol "BF.B" humorously echoes the essence of the name "Beau," inviting us to ponder if there is indeed a beau-tiful relationship between the two.
As we embark on this scholarly exploration, we aim to bring a touch of levity to the often-dense landscape of financial research, recognizing the importance of blending seriousness with an occasional splash of whimsy. This investigation, therefore, seeks to marry the playful fascination with baby names with the rigors of stock market analysis, creating a scholarly juxtaposition that is both engaging and informative.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[METHODOLOGY]]

ChatGPT:

[[METHODOLOGY]]

Data Collection:
The first step in this study was to gather data on the popularity of the first name "Beau" from the US Social Security Administration. This data provided insights into the frequency of newborns being adorned with this charming moniker from 2002 to 2022. Meanwhile, stock price data for Brown-Forman Corporation (BF.B) was obtained from LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv), offering a comprehensive view of the company's market performance over the same period.

Initial Data Observation:
The collected data was akin to a meeting between a suave Beau and a robust stock symbol, BF.B – both bringing their unique flair to this unusual rendezvous. Upon initial observation, the researchers noticed some intriguing patterns in the trends of baby names and stock prices, prompting a deeper analysis to unravel the potential relationship between these seemingly disparate domains.

Correlation Analysis:
To quantify the relationship between the popularity of the name Beau and the stock price of BF.B, a correlation analysis was conducted. The tantalizing correlation coefficient of 0.9812493 revealed a striking alignment between the ebb and flow of Beau's popularity and the undulations of BF.B's stock price. This finding was met with raised eyebrows by the research team, igniting a spark of curiosity about the underlying mechanisms driving this unexpected concordance.

Statistical Testing:
In order to rigorously assess the significance of this correlation, statistical tests were performed, yielding a p-value of less than 0.01. This statistical nugget of insight beckoned the researchers to further investigate the nuanced interplay between the endearing name Beau and the financial dynamics of BF.B, solidifying the legitimacy of this unlikely correlation.

Sensitivity Analysis:
To ensure the robustness of the findings, sensitivity analysis was carried out, subjecting the data to the scrutiny of various statistical methodologies and analytical frameworks. This step aimed to confirm that the observed association was not a fluke, but a substantial connection that defied the conventional boundaries of market analysis.

Ethical Considerations:
As with any scholarly endeavor, ethical considerations were paramount in this research. The researchers upheld the highest standards of data confidentiality and integrity, ensuring that the names of the newborn Beaus and the stock performance of Brown-Forman Corporation were treated with the utmost respect and confidentiality throughout the study.

Limitations:
Despite the riveting nature of this investigation, it is important to acknowledge the limitations that may constrain the generalizability of the findings. The peculiarities of a specific name and a singular stock symbol encompass only a fraction of the vast nomenclature and financial landscape, warranting caution in extrapolating these results to broader contexts.

In conclusion, the methodology employed in this study crafted a harmonious blend of empirical rigor and playful intrigue, unveiling the compelling relationship between the name "Beau" and the stock price of BF.B. This methodological journey serves as a testament to the enchanting interplay between the realms of baby names and financial markets, reminding scholars that even in the most serious pursuits, a touch of whimsy can reveal unexpected treasures of knowledge.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You draft the discussion section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the discussion section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Popularity of the first name Beau and Brown-Forman's stock price (BF.B). Make lots of jokes, goofy observations, and puns. Stay serious and dry most of the time, but then occasionally let your wit shine through.

Limit your response to 500 tokens.

Here are the title, abstract, literature review, and results sections. Please harken back to 1-2 of the goofy items in the literature review, but pretend to take them completely seriously. Discuss how your results supported the prior research.

Do not write a conclusion. I will add a conclusion after this.

[[TITLE]]
Beau the Name, BF.B the Stock: A Beau-tiful Connection?

[[ABSTRACT]]
This paper examines the often neglected relationship between the popularity of the first name "Beau" and the stock price of Brown-Forman Corporation (BF.B). Using data from the US Social Security Administration and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv) from 2002 to 2022, we found a surprisingly high correlation coefficient of 0.9812493 and a p-value less than 0.01, suggesting a strong statistical association. Our findings raise questions about the potential impact of name trends on financial markets and highlight the need for further investigation into the influence of baby names on stock performance. This research juxtaposes the whimsical world of baby names with the serious realm of stock prices, bringing new meaning to the phrase "stock market beau-mance."

[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]
The relationship between the popularity of the first name "Beau" and the stock price of Brown-Forman Corporation (BF.B) has been a topic that has piqued the interest of researchers in recent years. In "Smith et al.," the authors find a moderate positive correlation between the frequency of the name "Beau" and the stock price of BF.B, sparking initial curiosity about the potential connection between baby names and financial markets. Similarly, in "Doe and Jones," the authors suggest a possible link between the popularity of first names and stock performance, laying the groundwork for further investigation into this unconventional relationship.
Building on this early research, "Brown" explores the psychological implications of name popularity on consumer behavior and market trends, shedding light on the subtle yet influential impact of nomenclature in the financial sphere. Meanwhile, "White" investigates the cultural significance of names and their resonance in the realm of investments, offering a compelling narrative on the intersection of personal identity and stock market dynamics.
In the realm of non-fiction literature, "Freakonomics" by Steven D. Levitt and Stephen J. Dubner provides a thought-provoking perspective on the hidden forces shaping the world of finance, inviting readers to consider unconventional aspects of economic decision-making. Moreover, "Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking" by Malcolm Gladwell delves into the subconscious factors that influence human judgment, presenting compelling insights that resonate with the nuanced exploration of name popularity and stock prices.
Turning to fictional works, the thematic resonance of "The Alchemist" by Paulo Coelho offers an allegorical reflection on the interconnectedness of seemingly disparate elements, echoing the intricate relationship between baby names and stock performance that underpins this research endeavor. Furthermore, "The Name of the Wind" by Patrick Rothfuss weaves a captivating tale of destiny and perception, mirroring the unexpected narrative of the influence of the name "Beau" on the stock symbol BF.B.
As part of the preparatory phase for this investigation, the researchers also engaged with popular television shows that may offer tangential insights on the topic at hand. "Mad Money with Jim Cramer" and "The Big Bang Theory" were both instrumental in providing a lighthearted yet informative backdrop for understanding the idiosyncrasies of financial markets and the quirky potential influence of baby names on stock prices.

[[RESULTS]]
The data analysis revealed a remarkably high correlation coefficient of 0.9812493 between the popularity of the first name "Beau" and the stock price of Brown-Forman Corporation (BF.B) over the period of 2002 to 2022. The r-squared value of 0.9628502 further supports the strength of this association. Remarkably, the p-value was found to be less than 0.01, indicating a statistically significant relationship that defies conventional expectations.
The scatterplot depicted in Figure 1 visually encapsulates the strong correlation between the two variables, showcasing a striking alignment that is as unexpected as finding a hidden pocket of whiskey in a baby carriage. The linear relationship between the popularity of the name "Beau" and the stock price of BF.B is as clear as a crystal decanter, adding a delightful twist to the conventional wisdom surrounding stock market influencers.
This robust statistical evidence suggests that the popularity of the name "Beau" may indeed have exerted a discernible influence on the stock performance of Brown-Forman Corporation (BF.B). The findings of this investigation call attention to the potential impact of seemingly unrelated factors, such as baby name trends, on the financial markets. While this association may seem as improbable as finding a bourbon barrel in a baby nursery, it invites further inquiry into the intriguing interplay between cultural trends and stock price movements.
The unexpected connection between the first name "Beau" and the stock symbol BF.B serves as a poignant reminder that, in the complex world of finance, even the most unconventional variables may play a role in shaping market dynamics. This research underscores the importance of adopting a nuanced and interdisciplinary approach to understanding stock market movements, recognizing that the whimsical world of baby names may hold hidden clues to the enigmatic dance of stock prices.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[DISCUSSION]]

ChatGPT:

[[DISCUSSION]]

The findings of the present study provide compelling evidence in support of previous research that has indicated a potential link between the popularity of the first name "Beau" and the stock price of Brown-Forman Corporation (BF.B). The high correlation coefficient and statistically significant p-value align with the initial curiosity sparked by "Smith et al." regarding this unconventional association. The robustness of the statistical relationship defies conventional expectations and underscores the need for a deeper understanding of the intricate interplay between cultural trends and market dynamics.

The surprising alignment between the frequency of the name "Beau" and the stock price of BF.B resonates with the subtle patterns identified by "Doe and Jones," shedding light on the tantalizing prospect of name popularity as a potential influencer of stock performance. This finding is akin to stumbling upon a well-aged whiskey in an unexpected location, highlighting the unexpected and enigmatic nature of this relationship.

Importantly, the r-squared value further supports the strength of this association, adding a layer of robustness to the initial suggestions made by "Brown" and "White" regarding the potential psychological and cultural implications of name popularity on consumer behavior and market trends. This reinforces the need for a nuanced and interdisciplinary approach to understanding the multifaceted influences that shape stock market movements, emphasizing the importance of considering unconventional variables in the analysis of financial markets.

The striking visual representation of the strong correlation, as depicted in Figure 1, encapsulates the unexpected nature of this relationship, akin to the delightful surprise of discovering a hidden gem in an unexplored territory. This intricate connection between the first name "Beau" and the stock symbol BF.B serves as a captivating illustration of the often overlooked potential influence of seemingly unrelated factors on financial markets, echoing the unique insights presented in "Freakonomics" and "Blink" regarding the hidden forces that shape economic decision-making.

The whimsy of this unexpected connection between baby names and stock prices adds a lighthearted yet informative dimension to the realm of financial markets, akin to the engaging backdrop provided by popular television shows such as "Mad Money with Jim Cramer" and "The Big Bang Theory." This juxtaposition of the serious and the whimsical serves as a poignant reminder of the intricate and oftentimes surprising forces that underpin market dynamics, offering a refreshing perspective on the enigmatic dance of stock prices.

In summary, the evidence presented in this study aligns with and extends the previous research on the potential influence of the first name "Beau" on the stock performance of Brown-Forman Corporation (BF.B), highlighting the need for further exploration of the subtle yet influential impact of baby names on financial markets. This research underscores the value of embracing unconventional perspectives in the analysis of stock market movements, recognizing that even the most unlikely variables may hold hidden clues to the intricate tapestry of market dynamics.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You draft the discussion section of goofy academic research papers that sounds like it belongs based on the title and abstract provided.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up a short conclusion of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Popularity of the first name Beau and Brown-Forman's stock price (BF.B). Make lots of jokes, goofy observations, and puns. Stay serious and dry most of the time, but then occasionally let your wit shine through.

Limit your response to 300 tokens. At the very end, assert that no more research is needed in this area.

Here are the title, abstract, introduction, and results sections.
[[TITLE]]
Beau the Name, BF.B the Stock: A Beau-tiful Connection?

[[ABSTRACT]]
This paper examines the often neglected relationship between the popularity of the first name "Beau" and the stock price of Brown-Forman Corporation (BF.B). Using data from the US Social Security Administration and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv) from 2002 to 2022, we found a surprisingly high correlation coefficient of 0.9812493 and a p-value less than 0.01, suggesting a strong statistical association. Our findings raise questions about the potential impact of name trends on financial markets and highlight the need for further investigation into the influence of baby names on stock performance. This research juxtaposes the whimsical world of baby names with the serious realm of stock prices, bringing new meaning to the phrase "stock market beau-mance."

[[INTRDUCTION]]
The influence of seemingly unrelated factors on stock prices has long been a topic of interest in financial research. While traditional economic theories focus on market fundamentals, the possibility of non-financial variables affecting stock performance has often been overlooked. One such intriguing factor is the popularity of first names and its potential correlation with stock prices.
In this paper, we delve into the curious relationship between the first name "Beau" and the stock price of Brown-Forman Corporation (BF.B). This unlikely pairing takes us on a journey through the whimsical world of baby names and the serious realm of financial markets, shedding light on a connection that may seem as improbable as a newborn influencing the stock exchange.
The choice of the name "Beau" as the subject of study is not arbitrary; rather, it is a nod to the aesthetic appeal of investigating such an unexpected association. Additionally, the stock symbol "BF.B" humorously echoes the essence of the name "Beau," inviting us to ponder if there is indeed a beau-tiful relationship between the two.
As we embark on this scholarly exploration, we aim to bring a touch of levity to the often-dense landscape of financial research, recognizing the importance of blending seriousness with an occasional splash of whimsy. This investigation, therefore, seeks to marry the playful fascination with baby names with the rigors of stock market analysis, creating a scholarly juxtaposition that is both engaging and informative.

[[RESULTS]]
The data analysis revealed a remarkably high correlation coefficient of 0.9812493 between the popularity of the first name "Beau" and the stock price of Brown-Forman Corporation (BF.B) over the period of 2002 to 2022. The r-squared value of 0.9628502 further supports the strength of this association. Remarkably, the p-value was found to be less than 0.01, indicating a statistically significant relationship that defies conventional expectations.
The scatterplot depicted in Figure 1 visually encapsulates the strong correlation between the two variables, showcasing a striking alignment that is as unexpected as finding a hidden pocket of whiskey in a baby carriage. The linear relationship between the popularity of the name "Beau" and the stock price of BF.B is as clear as a crystal decanter, adding a delightful twist to the conventional wisdom surrounding stock market influencers.
This robust statistical evidence suggests that the popularity of the name "Beau" may indeed have exerted a discernible influence on the stock performance of Brown-Forman Corporation (BF.B). The findings of this investigation call attention to the potential impact of seemingly unrelated factors, such as baby name trends, on the financial markets. While this association may seem as improbable as finding a bourbon barrel in a baby nursery, it invites further inquiry into the intriguing interplay between cultural trends and stock price movements.
The unexpected connection between the first name "Beau" and the stock symbol BF.B serves as a poignant reminder that, in the complex world of finance, even the most unconventional variables may play a role in shaping market dynamics. This research underscores the importance of adopting a nuanced and interdisciplinary approach to understanding stock market movements, recognizing that the whimsical world of baby names may hold hidden clues to the enigmatic dance of stock prices.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[CONCLUSION]]

ChatGPT:

[[CONCLUSION]]

In conclusion, our study has shed light on the unlikely but statistically significant relationship between the popularity of the first name "Beau" and the stock price of Brown-Forman Corporation (BF.B). The remarkably high correlation coefficient and the visually captivating scatterplot have shown a connection that is as surprising as discovering a bottle of fine whiskey in a diaper bag. This unexpected finding challenges traditional notions of stock market influencers and highlights the need to consider unconventional variables in financial research. The implications of this study reach further than a namesake as charming as "Beau" influencing stock prices; they call for a more whimsical and diverse approach to understanding market dynamics.

The romantic "stock market beau-mance" revealed in our analysis invites further exploration into the impact of cultural trends on financial markets. As we push the boundaries of conventional economic analysis, we find ourselves in the "spirit" of uncovering novel relationships that blend the serious with the amusing. The findings of this study compel us to consider the playful contours of the stock market, suggesting that even the most improbable factors, like baby names, may leave an indelible mark on stock performance.

Therefore, we assert that no further research is needed in this area, as we have already proven that the name "Beau" indeed has a "beau-tiful" connection to the stock price of Brown-Forman Corporation. It is now time to raise a glass to this unconventional discovery and acknowledge that, just like a well-aged bourbon, some correlations may be best enjoyed without over-analyzing or diluting their charm. This research adds a touch of whimsy to the world of stock market analysis and underscores the value of embracing the unexpected, even if it comes in the form of a baby name.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide fictional names of academic journals. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide the name of a funny but plausible sounding research, scientific, or academic journal that would publish a paper entited Beau the Name, BF.B the Stock: A Beau-tiful Connection?. Respond only with the name of a fictional academic journal.

ChatGPT:

The Journal of Linguistic Puns

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide fictional names of nonprofit research organizations and associations. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide the name of a funny but plausible sounding nonprofit, academic, or scientific association or organization that would sponsor research that resulted in a paper entited Beau the Name, BF.B the Stock: A Beau-tiful Connection?. Respond only with the name of a fictional organization.

ChatGPT:

The Institute for Surname Studies

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide potential search keywords separated by commas. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide potential search keywords for a paper titled Beau the Name, BF.B the Stock: A Beau-tiful Connection? with an abstract of This paper examines the often neglected relationship between the popularity of the first name "Beau" and the stock price of Brown-Forman Corporation (BF.B). Using data from the US Social Security Administration and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv) from 2002 to 2022, we found a surprisingly high correlation coefficient of 0.9812493 and a p-value less than 0.01, suggesting a strong statistical association. Our findings raise questions about the potential impact of name trends on financial markets and highlight the need for further investigation into the influence of baby names on stock performance. This research juxtaposes the whimsical world of baby names with the serious realm of stock prices, bringing new meaning to the phrase "stock market beau-mance.

ChatGPT:

Beau, BF.B, Brown-Forman Corporation, stock price, name popularity, correlation coefficient, p-value, US Social Security Administration, LSEG Analytics, Refinitiv, baby names, stock performance, influence, financial markets, name trends

*There is a bunch of Python happening behind the scenes to turn this prompt sequence into a PDF.

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Data details

Popularity of the first name Beau
Detailed data title: Babies of all sexes born in the US named Beau
Source: US Social Security Administration
See what else correlates with Popularity of the first name Beau

Brown-Forman's stock price (BF.B)
Detailed data title: Opening price of Brown-Forman (BF.B) on the first trading day of the year
Source: LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv)
Additional Info: ^{See full details} Via Microsoft Excel Stockhistory function

See what else correlates with Brown-Forman's stock price (BF.B)

Correlation r = 0.9812493 (Pearson correlation coefficient)
Correlation is a measure of how much the variables move together. If it is 0.99, when one goes up the other goes up. If it is 0.02, the connection is very weak or non-existent. If it is -0.99, then when one goes up the other goes down. If it is 1.00, you probably messed up your correlation function.

r² = 0.9628502 (Coefficient of determination)
This means 96.3% of the change in the one variable (i.e., Brown-Forman's stock price (BF.B)) is predictable based on the change in the other (i.e., Popularity of the first name Beau) over the 21 years from 2002 through 2022.

p < 0.01, which is statistically significant(Null hypothesis significance test)
The p-value is 4.8E-15.^Show 0.0000000000000047738044133185
The p-value is a measure of how probable it is that we would randomly find a result this extreme.^Note More specifically the p-value is a measure of how probable it is that we would randomly find a result this extreme if we had only tested one pair of variables one time.

But I am a p-villain. I absolutely did not test only one pair of variables one time. I correlated hundreds of millions of pairs of variables. I threw boatloads of data into an industrial-sized blender to find this correlation.

Who is going to stop me? p-value reporting doesn't require me to report how many calculations I had to go through in order to find a low p-value!
On average, you will find a correaltion as strong as 0.98 in 4.8E-13% of random cases. Said differently, if you correlated 209,476,533,477,175 random variables^Note You don't actually need 209 trillion variables to find a correlation like this one. I don't have that many variables in my database. You can also correlate variables that are not independent. I do this a lot.

p-value calculations are useful for understanding the probability of a result happening by chance. They are most useful when used to highlight the risk of a fluke outcome. For example, if you calculate a p-value of 0.30, the risk that the result is a fluke is high. It is good to know that! But there are lots of ways to get a p-value of less than 0.01, as evidenced by this project.

In this particular case, the values are so extreme as to be meaningless. That's why no one reports p-values with specificity after they drop below 0.01.

Just to be clear: I'm being completely transparent about the calculations. There is no math trickery. This is just how statistics shakes out when you calculate hundreds of millions of random correlations.
with the same 20 degrees of freedom, ^Note Degrees of freedom is a measure of how many free components we are testing. In this case it is 20 because we have two variables measured over a period of 21 years. It's just the number of years minus ( the number of variables minus one ), which in this case simplifies to the number of years minus one.
you would randomly expect to find a correlation as strong as this one.

[ 0.95, 0.99 ] 95% correlation confidence interval (using the Fisher z-transformation)
^{Read more about the confidence interval} The confidence interval is an estimate the range of the value of the correlation coefficient, using the correlation itself as an input. The values are meant to be the low and high end of the correlation coefficient with 95% confidence.

This one is a bit more complciated than the other calculations, but I include it because many people have been pushing for confidence intervals instead of p-value calculations (for example: NEJM. However, if you are dredging data, you can reliably find yourself in the 5%. That's my goal!

All values for the years included above: ^Note If I were being very sneaky, I could trim years from the beginning or end of the datasets to increase the correlation on some pairs of variables. I don't do that because there are already plenty of correlations in my database without monkeying with the years.

Still, sometimes one of the variables has more years of data available than the other. This page only shows the overlapping years. To see all the years, click on "See what else correlates with..." link above.

	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
Popularity of the first name Beau (Babies born)	458	629	665	658	644	711	764	764	789	879	1107	1345	1679	2022	2164	2561	2645	2977	3389	3869	3997
Brown-Forman's stock price (BF.B) (Stock price)	6.54	6.86	9.79	10.21	14.11	14.27	15.44	13.64	14.02	18.25	21.09	25.01	29.66	34.53	38.28	35.46	54.15	47.12	67.6	79.82	72.74

Why this works

Data dredging: I have 25,153 variables in my database. I compare all these variables against each other to find ones that randomly match up. That's 632,673,409 correlation calculations! This is called “data dredging.” Instead of starting with a hypothesis and testing it, I instead abused the data to see what correlations shake out. It’s a dangerous way to go about analysis, because any sufficiently large dataset will yield strong correlations completely at random.
Lack of causal connection: There is probably^Note Because these pages are automatically generated, it's possible that the two variables you are viewing are in fact causually related. I take steps to prevent the obvious ones from showing on the site (I don't let data about the weather in one city correlate with the weather in a neighboring city, for example), but sometimes they still pop up. If they are related, cool! You found a loophole.
no direct connection between these variables, despite what the AI says above. This is exacerbated by the fact that I used "Years" as the base variable. Lots of things happen in a year that are not related to each other! Most studies would use something like "one person" in stead of "one year" to be the "thing" studied.
Observations not independent: For many variables, sequential years are not independent of each other. If a population of people is continuously doing something every day, there is no reason to think they would suddenly change how they are doing that thing on January 1. A simple^Note Personally I don't find any p-value calculation to be 'simple,' but you know what I mean.
p-value calculation does not take this into account, so mathematically it appears less probable than it really is.

Try it yourself

You can calculate the values on this page on your own! Try running the Python code to see the calculation results. ^{Show the steps to do this.} Step 1: Download and install Python on your computer.

Step 2: Open a plaintext editor like Notepad and paste the code below into it.

Step 3: Save the file as "calculate_correlation.py" in a place you will remember, like your desktop. Copy the file location to your clipboard. On Windows, you can right-click the file and click "Properties," and then copy what comes after "Location:" As an example, on my computer the location is "C:\Users\tyler\Desktop"

Step 4: Open a command line window. For example, by pressing start and typing "cmd" and them pressing enter.

Step 5: Install the required modules by typing "pip install numpy", then pressing enter, then typing "pip install scipy", then pressing enter.

Step 6: Navigate to the location where you saved the Python file by using the "cd" command. For example, I would type "cd C:\Users\tyler\Desktop" and push enter.

Step 7: Run the Python script by typing "python calculate_correlation.py"

If you run into any issues, I suggest asking ChatGPT to walk you through installing Python and running the code below on your system. Try this question:

"Walk me through installing Python on my computer to run a script that uses scipy and numpy. Go step-by-step and ask me to confirm before moving on. Start by asking me questions about my operating system so that you know how to proceed. Assume I want the simplest installation with the latest version of Python and that I do not currently have any of the necessary elements installed. Remember to only give me one step per response and confirm I have done it before proceeding."

# These modules make it easier to perform the calculation
import numpy as np
from scipy import stats

# We'll define a function that we can call to return the correlation calculations
def calculate_correlation(array1, array2):

    # Calculate Pearson correlation coefficient and p-value
    correlation, p_value = stats.pearsonr(array1, array2)

    # Calculate R-squared as the square of the correlation coefficient
    r_squared = correlation**2

    return correlation, r_squared, p_value

# These are the arrays for the variables shown on this page, but you can modify them to be any two sets of numbers
array_1 = np.array([458,629,665,658,644,711,764,764,789,879,1107,1345,1679,2022,2164,2561,2645,2977,3389,3869,3997,])
array_2 = np.array([6.54,6.86,9.79,10.21,14.11,14.27,15.44,13.64,14.02,18.25,21.09,25.01,29.66,34.53,38.28,35.46,54.15,47.12,67.6,79.82,72.74,])
array_1_name = "Popularity of the first name Beau"
array_2_name = "Brown-Forman's stock price (BF.B)"

# Perform the calculation
print(f"Calculating the correlation between {array_1_name} and {array_2_name}...")
correlation, r_squared, p_value = calculate_correlation(array_1, array_2)

# Print the results
print("Correlation Coefficient:", correlation)
print("R-squared:", r_squared)
print("P-value:", p_value)

Reuseable content

You may re-use the images on this page for any purpose, even commercial purposes, without asking for permission. The only requirement is that you attribute Tyler Vigen. ^Note Attribution can take many different forms. If you leave the "tylervigen.com" link in the image, that satisfies it just fine. If you remove it and move it to a footnote, that's fine too. You can also just write "Charts courtesy of Tyler Vigen" at the bottom of an article.

You do not need to attribute "the spurious correlations website," and you don't even need to link here if you don't want to. I don't gain anything from pageviews. There are no ads on this site, there is nothing for sale, and I am not for hire.

For the record, I am just one person. Tyler Vigen, he/him/his. I do have degrees, but they should not go after my name unless you want to annoy my wife. If that is your goal, then go ahead and cite me as "Tyler Vigen, A.A. A.A.S. B.A. J.D." Otherwise it is just "Tyler Vigen."

When spoken, my last name is pronounced "vegan," like I don't eat meat.

Full license details.
For more on re-use permissions, or to get a signed release form, see tylervigen.com/permission.

Download images for these variables:

High resolution line chart ^Note The image linked here is a Scalable Vector Graphic (SVG). It is the highest resolution that is possible to achieve. It scales up beyond the size of the observable universe without pixelating. You do not need to email me asking if I have a higher resolution image. I do not. The physical limitations of our universe prevent me from providing you with an image that is any higher resolution than this one.

If you insert it into a PowerPoint presentation (a tool well-known for managing things that are the scale of the universe), you can right-click > "Ungroup" or "Create Shape" and then edit the lines and text directly. You can also change the colors this way.

Alternatively you can use a tool like Inkscape.
High resolution line chart, optimized for mobile
Alternative high resolution line chart
Scatterplot
Portable line chart (png)
Portable line chart (png), optimized for mobile
Line chart for only Popularity of the first name Beau
Line chart for only Brown-Forman's stock price (BF.B)
AI-generated correlation image
The spurious research paper: Beau the Name, BF.B the Stock: A Beau-tiful Connection?

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Correlation ID: 4253 · Black Variable ID: 2860 · Red Variable ID: 1834


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