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AI explanation

^{Show image generation prompt} Model: dalle-3
Prompt: [ Photorealism ] An aerial view of a vast expanse of rich, green fields spreading across the landscape, showcasing vibrant genetically modified cotton plants in various stages of growth. The scene captures workers diligently harvesting the bountiful crop, their presence adding a human touch to the natural grandeur. Alongside the fields, imposing oil rigs and a network of natural gas pipelines stand as a testament to the increased demand for resources linked to fabric production. In the background, the image subtly incorporates the stock ticker for Pioneer Natural Resources Company (PXD) in a creative and whimsical manner, skillfully blending it into the landscape to symbolize the interconnectedness between GMO cotton and the stock price. The stock ticker and its rising numbers form a captivating and surreal cosmic quilt pattern that infuses the scene with a touch of enchanting whimsy, presenting an intriguing juxtaposition of nature and commerce. The depiction should include only scenes, people, and objects, it should not include text or speech bubbles.

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This image generation prompt was also generated by AI, using the following sequence:

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You select one of a few potential scene descriptors that seems to go along with the variables described. You respond only with the scene descriptions provided and say nothing else.
User prompt: Here are two variables: GMO use in cotton and Pioneer Natural Resources Company's stock price (PXD). Given these, which of the following image style descriptions seems most appropriate? Pick the one that seems to be related to one of the variables at hand. Please respond with only one of the following potential descriptions: Cute cartoon Photorealism Oragami a meme Cubism
ChatGPT: Photorealism

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You describe simple visual scenes that depict the two variables stated. You combine both variables into one scene.
User prompt: Please describe a visual scene that prominently depicts both GMO use in cotton and Pioneer Natural Resources Company's stock price (PXD), in the following situation: Because the genetically modified cotton caused a surge in fabric production, which led to a higher demand for natural resources like oil and gas used in manufacturing and transportation. It's like the cotton and the stock price are sewn together in a hilarious cosmic quilt!. Keep the description simple.
ChatGPT: In the scene, we see fields of vibrant genetically modified cotton plants stretching out across the landscape, with workers gathering the bountiful crop. Nearby, we see oil rigs and natural gas pipelines, representing the increased demand for these resources due to the surge in fabric production. In the background, the stock ticker for Pioneer Natural Resources Company (PXD) steadily rises, symbolizing the interconnectedness of GMO cotton and the stock price in a whimsical cosmic quilt pattern.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You write and improve image generation prompts for DALLE-3. You maintain the same subjects, but enhance the visuals.
User prompt: Please respond with an image generation prompt that would be likely to create an interesting visual using DALLE-3, using the following style: [ Photorealism ] and depicting this scene: In the scene, we see fields of vibrant genetically modified cotton plants stretching out across the landscape, with workers gathering the bountiful crop. Nearby, we see oil rigs and natural gas pipelines, representing the increased demand for these resources due to the surge in fabric production. In the background, the stock ticker for Pioneer Natural Resources Company (PXD) steadily rises, symbolizing the interconnectedness of GMO cotton and the stock price in a whimsical cosmic quilt pattern. Keep the visual depiction simple. Do not include any words or speech bubbles.
ChatGPT: [ Photorealism ] An aerial view of a vast expanse of rich, green fields spreading across the landscape, showcasing vibrant genetically modified cotton plants in various stages of growth. The scene captures workers diligently harvesting the bountiful crop, their presence adding a human touch to the natural grandeur. Alongside the fields, imposing oil rigs and a network of natural gas pipelines stand as a testament to the increased demand for resources linked to fabric production. In the background, the image subtly incorporates the stock ticker for Pioneer Natural Resources Company (PXD) in a creative and whimsical manner, skillfully blending it into the landscape to symbolize the interconnectedness between GMO cotton and the stock price. The stock ticker and its rising numbers form a captivating and surreal cosmic quilt pattern that infuses the scene with a touch of enchanting whimsy, presenting an intriguing juxtaposition of nature and commerce.

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*Variations in the User Prompts from chart to chart are just the result of random number generation in Python. I wrote a few arrays of various styles and methods to ask questions to change up the results. Every time this site writes an explanation or generates an image, the script picks from each at random.

I sequence the requests into multiple prompts because I find GPT 3.5 to perform much better with short, well-managed contexts. Thus, I track the context directly in Python and only ask ChatGPT targeted questions.

AI academic paper

Genetically Modifying Investment: The Cotton Connection between GMOs and PXD Stock Price The Journal of Agricultural Economics and Financial Genetics Jan 2024 Reminder: This paper is AI-generated. Not real!

Problem variable:	Which variable has a problem? GMO use in cotton Pioneer Natural Resources Company's stock price (PXD) Neither / both
Issue:	What is the issue? The data is incorrect The chart isn't displaying properly There is a typo The source link is incorrect A calculation is wrong Something else
Additional details: Optional
Confirm you are a human:

Data details

Why this works

1. Data dredging: I have 25,153 variables in my database. I compare all these variables against each other to find ones that randomly match up. That's 632,673,409 correlation calculations! This is called “data dredging.” Instead of starting with a hypothesis and testing it, I instead abused the data to see what correlations shake out. It’s a dangerous way to go about analysis, because any sufficiently large dataset will yield strong correlations completely at random.
2. Lack of causal connection: There is probably^Note Because these pages are automatically generated, it's possible that the two variables you are viewing are in fact causually related. I take steps to prevent the obvious ones from showing on the site (I don't let data about the weather in one city correlate with the weather in a neighboring city, for example), but sometimes they still pop up. If they are related, cool! You found a loophole.
   no direct connection between these variables, despite what the AI says above. This is exacerbated by the fact that I used "Years" as the base variable. Lots of things happen in a year that are not related to each other! Most studies would use something like "one person" in stead of "one year" to be the "thing" studied.
3. Observations not independent: For many variables, sequential years are not independent of each other. If a population of people is continuously doing something every day, there is no reason to think they would suddenly change how they are doing that thing on January 1. A simple^Note Personally I don't find any p-value calculation to be 'simple,' but you know what I mean.
   p-value calculation does not take this into account, so mathematically it appears less probable than it really is.

Try it yourself

# These modules make it easier to perform the calculation
import numpy as np
from scipy import stats

# We'll define a function that we can call to return the correlation calculations
def calculate_correlation(array1, array2):

    # Calculate Pearson correlation coefficient and p-value
    correlation, p_value = stats.pearsonr(array1, array2)

    # Calculate R-squared as the square of the correlation coefficient
    r_squared = correlation**2

    return correlation, r_squared, p_value

# These are the arrays for the variables shown on this page, but you can modify them to be any two sets of numbers
array_1 = np.array([22,27,30,34,39,42,45,48,58,58,63,67,79,79,80,80,82,89,83,88,86,])
array_2 = np.array([19.01,25.5,32.03,35,51.6,39.69,48.77,16.37,49.38,87.86,91.84,109.43,182.95,147.54,125.19,182.99,174.3,128.78,152.02,115.02,180.69,])
array_1_name = "GMO use in cotton"
array_2_name = "Pioneer Natural Resources Company's stock price (PXD)"

# Perform the calculation
print(f"Calculating the correlation between {array_1_name} and {array_2_name}...")
correlation, r_squared, p_value = calculate_correlation(array_1, array_2)

# Print the results
print("Correlation Coefficient:", correlation)
print("R-squared:", r_squared)
print("P-value:", p_value)

Reuseable content

• High resolution line chart ^Note The image linked here is a Scalable Vector Graphic (SVG). It is the highest resolution that is possible to achieve. It scales up beyond the size of the observable universe without pixelating. You do not need to email me asking if I have a higher resolution image. I do not. The physical limitations of our universe prevent me from providing you with an image that is any higher resolution than this one.
  
  If you insert it into a PowerPoint presentation (a tool well-known for managing things that are the scale of the universe), you can right-click > "Ungroup" or "Create Shape" and then edit the lines and text directly. You can also change the colors this way.
  
  Alternatively you can use a tool like Inkscape.
  
• High resolution line chart, optimized for mobile
• Alternative high resolution line chart
• Scatterplot
• Portable line chart (png)
• Portable line chart (png), optimized for mobile
• Line chart for only GMO use in cotton
• Line chart for only Pioneer Natural Resources Company's stock price (PXD)
• AI-generated correlation image
• The spurious research paper: Genetically Modifying Investment: The Cotton Connection between GMOs and PXD Stock Price