Spurious correlation #3,678 · View random
A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is Popularity of the first name Brady and the second variable is Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria's stock price (BBVA). The chart goes from 2002 to 2022, and the two variables track closely in value over that time.

A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is Popularity of the first name Brady and the second variable is Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria's stock price (BBVA). The chart goes from 2002 to 2022, and the two variables track closely in value over that time.

Download png, svg

AI explanation

Parents started naming their kids after successful companies instead, leading to a surge in tiny tots named Banco and Bilbao. This unexpected demographic shift created a new generation of toddler investors, causing a spike in demand for toy stocks and a subsequent shortage of BBVA (Baby Bankers of Vestibule Age) shares. The scarcity of BBVA stocks led to a dramatic drop in their value, all because the name Brady just wasn't as bankable as it used to be.

^{Show image generation prompt} Model: dalle-3
Prompt: Generate an image of a bustling futuristic city park with a group of children wearing Tom Brady jerseys playing football. The children are enthusiastically engaged in the game as proud parents cheer them on. In the background, a large digital screen displays the stock price of BBVA, showing a significant increase, symbolizing the surge in demand for football merchandise financed by the bank. The scene should capture a vibrant and technologically advanced urban setting, with sleek architecture and contemporary design elements. The depiction should include only scenes, people, and objects, it should not include text or speech bubbles.

This image generation prompt was also generated by AI, using the following sequence:

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You select one of a few potential scene descriptors that seems to go along with the variables described. You respond only with the scene descriptions provided and say nothing else.
User prompt: Here are two variables: Popularity of the first name Brady and Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria's stock price (BBVA). Given these, which of the following image style descriptions seems most appropriate? Pick the one that seems to be related to one of the variables at hand. Please respond with only one of the following potential descriptions: Cute 2D animation Futuristic Celtic art Magic realism Oragami
ChatGPT: Futuristic

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You describe simple visual scenes that depict the two variables stated. You combine both variables into one scene.
User prompt: Please describe a visual scene that prominently depicts both Popularity of the first name Brady and Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria's stock price (BBVA), in the following situation: Because as the popularity of the name Brady increased, more parents named their kids after Tom Brady, leading to a surge in Patriots fans. This increased demand for football merchandise, causing a spike in BBVA's stock price due to their financing of sports apparel manufacturers.. Keep the description simple.
ChatGPT: In a bustling city, a group of children wearing Tom Brady jerseys play football in a park, as proud parents cheer them on. Nearby, a large screen displays the stock price of BBVA, showing a significant increase, reflecting the surge in demand for football merchandise financed by the bank.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You write and improve image generation prompts for DALLE-3. You maintain the same subjects, but enhance the visuals.
User prompt: Please respond with an image generation prompt that would be likely to create an interesting visual using DALLE-3, using the following style: [ Futuristic ] and depicting this scene: In a bustling city, a group of children wearing Tom Brady jerseys play football in a park, as proud parents cheer them on. Nearby, a large screen displays the stock price of BBVA, showing a significant increase, reflecting the surge in demand for football merchandise financed by the bank. Keep the visual depiction simple. Do not include any words or speech bubbles.
ChatGPT: Generate an image of a bustling futuristic city park with a group of children wearing Tom Brady jerseys playing football. The children are enthusiastically engaged in the game as proud parents cheer them on. In the background, a large digital screen displays the stock price of BBVA, showing a significant increase, symbolizing the surge in demand for football merchandise financed by the bank. The scene should capture a vibrant and technologically advanced urban setting, with sleek architecture and contemporary design elements.

*Variations in the User Prompts from chart to chart are just the result of random number generation in Python. I wrote a few arrays of various styles and methods to ask questions to change up the results. Every time this site writes an explanation or generates an image, the script picks from each at random.

I sequence the requests into multiple prompts because I find GPT 3.5 to perform much better with short, well-managed contexts. Thus, I track the context directly in Python and only ask ChatGPT targeted questions.
^{Show prompt for explanation} Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106 (fine-tuned)
System prompt: You provide humorous responses in the form of plausible sounding explanations for correlations. You assume the correlation is causative for the purpose of the explanation even if it is ridiculous. You do not chat with the user, you only reply with the causal connection explanation and nothing else.
User prompt: Please make up a funny explanation for how a decrease in Popularity of the first name Brady caused Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria's stock price (BBVA) to decrease.

AI academic paper

(Because p < 0.01)

Brady's Bizarre Boom: Bellying Up Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria's Stock Price

Journal of Financial Follies and Frivolity

Jan 2024

Reminder: This paper is AI-generated. Not real!

^{Show prompt used to generate this paper} Quick note: This sequence is long and repetitive. That's how the prompt engineering works for this one. I manage the output in Python to format it into this PDF.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You draft a literature review section of an academic research paper, that starts out dry for the first few sentences but then becomes hilarious and goofy.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up a literature review section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Popularity of the first name Brady and Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria's stock price (BBVA). You can't resist a good dad joke. Add a relevant dad joke related to the content every couple of sentences.

Speak in the present tense for this section (the authors find...), as is common in academic research paper literature reviews. Name the sources in a format similar to this: In "Book," the authors find lorem and ipsum.

Make up the lorem and ipsum part, but make it sound related to the topic at hand.

Start by naming serious-sounding studies by authors like Smith, Doe, and Jones - but then quickly devolve. Name some real non-fiction books that would be related to the topic. Then name some real fiction books that sound like they could be related. Then you might move on to cartoons and children's shows that you watched for research.

Here is the title and abstract of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
Brady's Bizarre Boom: Bellying Up Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria's Stock Price

[[ABSTRACT]]
This study delves into the surprising link between the popularity of the first name "Brady" in the United States and the stock performance of Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA). Using data spanning the years 2002 to 2022 from the US Social Security Administration and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv), our research team calculated a robust correlation coefficient of 0.9173487 with a statistically significant p-value of less than 0.01. This finding sheds light on the whimsical interplay between seemingly unrelated phenomena, prompting us to ponder: "Is it mere coincidence, or is there some mysterious Brady effect at play?"

Our analysis unveils an astonishing positive correlation between the frequency of the name "Brady" bestowed upon newborns in the US and the fluctuation in BBVA's stock price. Could it be that the power of the name "Brady" is not confined to the football field, but extends its influence into the realm of international finance? This uncanny alignment raises the eyebrow and the question: "Is Brady a name of financial fortuity or futility?"

Preliminary insights suggest that the stock performance of BBVA exhibits an uncanny sensitivity to the meteoric rise and fall of the popularity of the name "Brady," leading us to contemplate: "Is it mere whimsy, or is there a truly Brady bunch effect at play here?" The data point to an unexpected yet robust relationship that leaves us pondering whether there is more to the name "Brady" than meets the eye, prompting the perennial question: "Could it be the 'Brady' bunch bringing about this uncanny correlation?"

In conclusion, this investigation offers a lighthearted yet thought-probing examination of the curious connection between the frequency of the name "Brady" and the ebbs and flows of BBVA's stock price. These findings invite us to humorously ponder if there is indeed a hidden financial force behind the name "Brady," or if it's simply a serendipitous stroke of statistical fate.

-------

And here is the introduction section that led to this literature review:
[[INTRODUCTION]]
The correlation between individual names and financial market performance has long been a subject of fascination and conjecture. It has been a matter of pop culture curiosity whether certain names could hold sway over economic trends and stock prices, prompting the jestful inquiry: "Are stockbrokers secretly name-droppers?"
In this paper, we present an analysis of the unexpected relationship between the popularity of the first name "Brady" in the United States and the stock price of Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA). This study is a lighthearted yet methodical exploration of the whimsical interplay between the naming practices of new parents and the financial performance of a prominent international bank. It raises the quizzical riposte: "Could there be a 'Brady Bunch' effect on the stock market?"
The intrigue surrounding the influence of names on financial markets has often elicited playful quips and jocular speculation. While such musings may seem to drift into the domain of the farcical or facetious, there are indeed notable historical precedents and economic theories that suggest the potential for name-based phenomena to impact market dynamics. It would seem the age-old question of "What's in a name?" may have an unexpected answer: "Possibly a fluctuation in stock prices!"
Do you know why Brady keeps getting invited to speak at financial conferences? Because he always has a "stock" of dad jokes to share!

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]

ChatGPT:
[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]

Several studies have explored the relationship between individual names and various aspects of social and economic life. In "The Name Effect," Smith and Doe find a correlation between the popularity of certain names and career success, while Jones et al. investigate the association between first names and consumer behavior in "First Names and Shopping Habits." However, the connection between the popularity of the first name "Brady" and the stock performance of Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA) remains an uncharted territory in academic research.

Moving on from serious studies, the literature encompasses a wide array of books related to the influence of names in different realms. "Freakonomics," by Steven D. Levitt and Stephen J. Dubner, delves into the peculiar and at times unexpected ways in which economics affects our daily lives, potentially shedding light on the curious correlation we are investigating. In "The Tipping Point" by Malcolm Gladwell, the author presents the concept of how small changes can have a big effect, which is highly relevant to our inquiry into the "Brady effect" on BBVA's stock price.

On a more fictional note, works such as "The Name of the Wind" by Patrick Rothfuss and "The Shadow of the Wind" by Carlos Ruiz Zafón, while not directly related to our research, evoke a sense of intrigue and mystery surrounding names, which mirrors the enigmatic connection we are exploring between the name "Brady" and BBVA's stock performance.

As we venture into the less conventional sources of information, it is important to acknowledge the influence of pop culture and children's media in shaping our understanding of names and their potential impact. From the Brady Bunch, a classic American sitcom, to the adventures of Brady in "The Brady Kids" animated series, these cultural references not only provide entertainment but also give us an amusing lens through which to examine the purported "Brady effect" on stock prices.

One can only wonder if the stock prices rise when a "Brady Bunch" marathon is on TV!

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You draft the discussion section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the discussion section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Popularity of the first name Brady and Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria's stock price (BBVA). You can't resist a good dad joke. Add a relevant dad joke related to the content every couple of sentences. Stay serious and dry most of the time, but then occasionally let your wit shine through.

Limit your response to 500 tokens.

Here are the title, abstract, literature review, and results sections. Please harken back to 1-2 of the goofy items in the literature review, but pretend to take them completely seriously. Discuss how your results supported the prior research.

Do not write a conclusion. I will add a conclusion after this.

[[TITLE]]
Brady's Bizarre Boom: Bellying Up Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria's Stock Price

[[ABSTRACT]]
This study delves into the surprising link between the popularity of the first name "Brady" in the United States and the stock performance of Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA). Using data spanning the years 2002 to 2022 from the US Social Security Administration and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv), our research team calculated a robust correlation coefficient of 0.9173487 with a statistically significant p-value of less than 0.01. This finding sheds light on the whimsical interplay between seemingly unrelated phenomena, prompting us to ponder: "Is it mere coincidence, or is there some mysterious Brady effect at play?"

Our analysis unveils an astonishing positive correlation between the frequency of the name "Brady" bestowed upon newborns in the US and the fluctuation in BBVA's stock price. Could it be that the power of the name "Brady" is not confined to the football field, but extends its influence into the realm of international finance? This uncanny alignment raises the eyebrow and the question: "Is Brady a name of financial fortuity or futility?"

Preliminary insights suggest that the stock performance of BBVA exhibits an uncanny sensitivity to the meteoric rise and fall of the popularity of the name "Brady," leading us to contemplate: "Is it mere whimsy, or is there a truly Brady bunch effect at play here?" The data point to an unexpected yet robust relationship that leaves us pondering whether there is more to the name "Brady" than meets the eye, prompting the perennial question: "Could it be the 'Brady' bunch bringing about this uncanny correlation?"

In conclusion, this investigation offers a lighthearted yet thought-probing examination of the curious connection between the frequency of the name "Brady" and the ebbs and flows of BBVA's stock price. These findings invite us to humorously ponder if there is indeed a hidden financial force behind the name "Brady," or if it's simply a serendipitous stroke of statistical fate.

[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]
Several studies have explored the relationship between individual names and various aspects of social and economic life. In "The Name Effect," Smith and Doe find a correlation between the popularity of certain names and career success, while Jones et al. investigate the association between first names and consumer behavior in "First Names and Shopping Habits." However, the connection between the popularity of the first name "Brady" and the stock performance of Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA) remains an uncharted territory in academic research.
Moving on from serious studies, the literature encompasses a wide array of books related to the influence of names in different realms. "Freakonomics," by Steven D. Levitt and Stephen J. Dubner, delves into the peculiar and at times unexpected ways in which economics affects our daily lives, potentially shedding light on the curious correlation we are investigating. In "The Tipping Point" by Malcolm Gladwell, the author presents the concept of how small changes can have a big effect, which is highly relevant to our inquiry into the "Brady effect" on BBVA's stock price.
On a more fictional note, works such as "The Name of the Wind" by Patrick Rothfuss and "The Shadow of the Wind" by Carlos Ruiz Zafón, while not directly related to our research, evoke a sense of intrigue and mystery surrounding names, which mirrors the enigmatic connection we are exploring between the name "Brady" and BBVA's stock performance.
As we venture into the less conventional sources of information, it is important to acknowledge the influence of pop culture and children's media in shaping our understanding of names and their potential impact. From the Brady Bunch, a classic American sitcom, to the adventures of Brady in "The Brady Kids" animated series, these cultural references not only provide entertainment but also give us an amusing lens through which to examine the purported "Brady effect" on stock prices.
One can only wonder if the stock prices rise when a "Brady Bunch" marathon is on TV!

[[RESULTS]]
The analysis of the relationship between the popularity of the first name "Brady" in the United States and the stock price of Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA) from 2002 to 2022 revealed a remarkably high correlation coefficient of 0.9173487. The strength of this correlation suggests a substantial association between the two seemingly disparate variables. One might quip that the name "Brady" appears to have more than just a passing influence on the stock market.
The r-squared value of 0.8415287 indicates that approximately 84.15% of the variability in BBVA's stock price can be explained by fluctuations in the popularity of the name "Brady." This finding leaves us scratching our heads and pondering whether there is a hidden force at work, or if it is just an amusing statistical quirk.
In addition, the statistical test indicated a p-value of less than 0.01, providing strong evidence to reject the null hypothesis of no relationship between the frequency of the name "Brady" and BBVA's stock price. This result suggests that the observed correlation is unlikely to have occurred by mere chance and piques our curiosity as to the underpinnings of this unexpected connection. One might jest that the name "Brady" is not to be taken lightly in the world of finance.
Figure 1 presents a scatterplot illustrating the robust positive correlation between the popularity of the name "Brady" and BBVA's stock price. The clear trend depicted in the scatterplot further underscores the substantial relationship between these two variables. One could say that the data points seem to be shouting, "Brady's influence on BBVA is no mere fluke!"
Why did the statistician break up with Brady? Because he couldn't handle the way Brady skewed his data!

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[DISCUSSION]]

ChatGPT:

[[DISCUSSION]]

The findings of this study provide compelling evidence in support of the prior research that has explored the peculiar correlation between the prevalence of the first name "Brady" and the performance of Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA) stock. The robust correlation coefficient, accompanied by a statistically significant p-value, lends credence to the notion that there is indeed a meaningful relationship between these seemingly unrelated variables. It seems that the name "Brady" carries more weight in the financial world than one might have initially imagined.

The uncanny alignment between the frequency of the name "Brady" and the fluctuations in BBVA's stock price echoes the insights offered by Smith and Doe's work on "The Name Effect." Similarly, the striking positive correlation identified in our study resonates with the notion presented by Jones et al. in "First Names and Shopping Habits" that individual names can exert influence in unexpected domains. These findings bolster the argument that names hold a quirky yet noteworthy sway over various aspects of social and economic phenomena, reaffirming the relevance of our investigation into the "Brady effect" on BBVA's stock performance.

Furthermore, the substantial r-squared value uncovered in our analysis aligns with the concept expounded in Levitt and Dubner's "Freakonomics" that small, seemingly inconsequential variables can have a pronounced impact on larger outcomes. The resounding effect of the name "Brady" on BBVA's stock price, as exemplified by the sizable r-squared value, suggests that there may indeed be an underlying financial force associated with certain names, a concept that merits further exploration and consideration.

The scatterplot depicting the robust positive correlation between the frequency of the name "Brady" and BBVA's stock price echoes the sentiment elucidated by Gladwell in "The Tipping Point" concerning the potential for small changes to yield substantial effects. This visual representation serves as a whimsical yet telling illustration of the influence wielded by the name "Brady" in the domain of global finance, leaving one to wryly contemplate the possibility of a "Brady bunch effect" driving the stock performance of BBVA.

In conclusion, the findings of this study not only confirm the existence of a significant correlation between the popularity of the first name "Brady" and the stock price of Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA) but also underscore the importance of exploring unconventional and lighthearted avenues in academic research. The "Brady effect" on BBVA's stock performance, though initially cloaked in whimsy, emerges as a substantial and thought-provoking phenomenon, prompting one to wonder if there may be more to a name than meets the eye. One cannot help but humorously reflect on the notion that perhaps there is a "Brady factor" at play in the world of international finance, lending a touch of levity to our understanding of the curious interplay between names and economic outcomes.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You draft the discussion section of goofy academic research papers that sounds like it belongs based on the title and abstract provided.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up a short conclusion of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Popularity of the first name Brady and Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria's stock price (BBVA). You can't resist a good dad joke. Add a relevant dad joke related to the content every couple of sentences. Stay serious and dry most of the time, but then occasionally let your wit shine through.

Limit your response to 300 tokens. At the very end, assert that no more research is needed in this area.

Here are the title, abstract, introduction, and results sections.
[[TITLE]]
Brady's Bizarre Boom: Bellying Up Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria's Stock Price

[[ABSTRACT]]
This study delves into the surprising link between the popularity of the first name "Brady" in the United States and the stock performance of Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA). Using data spanning the years 2002 to 2022 from the US Social Security Administration and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv), our research team calculated a robust correlation coefficient of 0.9173487 with a statistically significant p-value of less than 0.01. This finding sheds light on the whimsical interplay between seemingly unrelated phenomena, prompting us to ponder: "Is it mere coincidence, or is there some mysterious Brady effect at play?"

Our analysis unveils an astonishing positive correlation between the frequency of the name "Brady" bestowed upon newborns in the US and the fluctuation in BBVA's stock price. Could it be that the power of the name "Brady" is not confined to the football field, but extends its influence into the realm of international finance? This uncanny alignment raises the eyebrow and the question: "Is Brady a name of financial fortuity or futility?"

Preliminary insights suggest that the stock performance of BBVA exhibits an uncanny sensitivity to the meteoric rise and fall of the popularity of the name "Brady," leading us to contemplate: "Is it mere whimsy, or is there a truly Brady bunch effect at play here?" The data point to an unexpected yet robust relationship that leaves us pondering whether there is more to the name "Brady" than meets the eye, prompting the perennial question: "Could it be the 'Brady' bunch bringing about this uncanny correlation?"

In conclusion, this investigation offers a lighthearted yet thought-probing examination of the curious connection between the frequency of the name "Brady" and the ebbs and flows of BBVA's stock price. These findings invite us to humorously ponder if there is indeed a hidden financial force behind the name "Brady," or if it's simply a serendipitous stroke of statistical fate.

[[INTRDUCTION]]
The correlation between individual names and financial market performance has long been a subject of fascination and conjecture. It has been a matter of pop culture curiosity whether certain names could hold sway over economic trends and stock prices, prompting the jestful inquiry: "Are stockbrokers secretly name-droppers?"
In this paper, we present an analysis of the unexpected relationship between the popularity of the first name "Brady" in the United States and the stock price of Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA). This study is a lighthearted yet methodical exploration of the whimsical interplay between the naming practices of new parents and the financial performance of a prominent international bank. It raises the quizzical riposte: "Could there be a 'Brady Bunch' effect on the stock market?"
The intrigue surrounding the influence of names on financial markets has often elicited playful quips and jocular speculation. While such musings may seem to drift into the domain of the farcical or facetious, there are indeed notable historical precedents and economic theories that suggest the potential for name-based phenomena to impact market dynamics. It would seem the age-old question of "What's in a name?" may have an unexpected answer: "Possibly a fluctuation in stock prices!"
Do you know why Brady keeps getting invited to speak at financial conferences? Because he always has a "stock" of dad jokes to share!

[[RESULTS]]
The analysis of the relationship between the popularity of the first name "Brady" in the United States and the stock price of Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA) from 2002 to 2022 revealed a remarkably high correlation coefficient of 0.9173487. The strength of this correlation suggests a substantial association between the two seemingly disparate variables. One might quip that the name "Brady" appears to have more than just a passing influence on the stock market.
The r-squared value of 0.8415287 indicates that approximately 84.15% of the variability in BBVA's stock price can be explained by fluctuations in the popularity of the name "Brady." This finding leaves us scratching our heads and pondering whether there is a hidden force at work, or if it is just an amusing statistical quirk.
In addition, the statistical test indicated a p-value of less than 0.01, providing strong evidence to reject the null hypothesis of no relationship between the frequency of the name "Brady" and BBVA's stock price. This result suggests that the observed correlation is unlikely to have occurred by mere chance and piques our curiosity as to the underpinnings of this unexpected connection. One might jest that the name "Brady" is not to be taken lightly in the world of finance.
Figure 1 presents a scatterplot illustrating the robust positive correlation between the popularity of the name "Brady" and BBVA's stock price. The clear trend depicted in the scatterplot further underscores the substantial relationship between these two variables. One could say that the data points seem to be shouting, "Brady's influence on BBVA is no mere fluke!"
Why did the statistician break up with Brady? Because he couldn't handle the way Brady skewed his data!

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[CONCLUSION]]

ChatGPT:

[[CONCLUSION]]

In conclusion, the analysis of the correlation between the popularity of the first name "Brady" in the United States and the stock performance of Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA) has unearthed a remarkably robust relationship. The findings not only underscore the unexpected interconnectedness of seemingly unrelated phenomena but also prompt us to jestfully ponder the possibility of a "Brady Bunch" effect within the financial domain.

The data present a compelling case for a substantial association between the frequency of the name "Brady" and the fluctuations in BBVA's stock price. It appears that the whims of new parents bestowing the name "Brady" may inadvertently be leaving their mark on the ebbs and flows of international finance. One could say that these findings add a new dimension to the concept of "stock" identity.

The strong correlation coefficient and the overwhelmingly significant p-value leave us little room to doubt the existence of a curious link between the popularity of the name "Brady" and BBVA's stock price. It seems that the name "Brady" may have more than just a nominal impact on the financial world, sparking curiosity about the underlying mechanisms at play. Perhaps it's time to consider including "Brady" as a variable in financial forecasting models and theories. One might quip that the whims of the "Brady Bunch" may hold untold economic sway!

This investigation not only adds a touch of whimsy to the world of financial analysis but also prompts us to ponder whether there is a hidden "Brady" effect shaping market dynamics in ways we had never considered. It appears that the name "Brady" may not be merely a moniker, but a subtle yet influential force within the intricate tapestry of international finance. With these findings, it seems we may no longer be able to brush off the impact of names on market performance as mere coincidence.

Therefore, we boldly assert that no further research is needed in this area. The evidence overwhelmingly supports the existence of a notable relationship between the popularity of the name "Brady" and BBVA's stock price. It is with a dash of humor and a sense of wonder that we bid adieu to the whimsical yet thought-provoking world of "Brady's Bizarre Boom" and the enigmatic influence of names on the financial stage. One might say that the time has come to stop "Brady-ing" the issue and accept the substantial impact of this curious correlation!

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide fictional names of academic journals. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide the name of a funny but plausible sounding research, scientific, or academic journal that would publish a paper entited Brady's Bizarre Boom: Bellying Up Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria's Stock Price. Respond only with the name of a fictional academic journal.

ChatGPT:

Journal of Financial Follies and Frivolity

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide fictional names of nonprofit research organizations and associations. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide the name of a funny but plausible sounding nonprofit, academic, or scientific association or organization that would sponsor research that resulted in a paper entited Brady's Bizarre Boom: Bellying Up Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria's Stock Price. Respond only with the name of a fictional organization.

ChatGPT:

Society for Esoteric Economic Enigmas

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide potential search keywords separated by commas. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide potential search keywords for a paper titled Brady's Bizarre Boom: Bellying Up Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria's Stock Price with an abstract of This study delves into the surprising link between the popularity of the first name "Brady" in the United States and the stock performance of Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA). Using data spanning the years 2002 to 2022 from the US Social Security Administration and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv), our research team calculated a robust correlation coefficient of 0.9173487 with a statistically significant p-value of less than 0.01. This finding sheds light on the whimsical interplay between seemingly unrelated phenomena, prompting us to ponder: "Is it mere coincidence, or is there some mysterious Brady effect at play?"
Our analysis unveils an astonishing positive correlation between the frequency of the name "Brady" bestowed upon newborns in the US and the fluctuation in BBVA's stock price. Could it be that the power of the name "Brady" is not confined to the football field, but extends its influence into the realm of international finance? This uncanny alignment raises the eyebrow and the question: "Is Brady a name of financial fortuity or futility?"
Preliminary insights suggest that the stock performance of BBVA exhibits an uncanny sensitivity to the meteoric rise and fall of the popularity of the name "Brady," leading us to contemplate: "Is it mere whimsy, or is there a truly Brady bunch effect at play here?" The data point to an unexpected yet robust relationship that leaves us pondering whether there is more to the name "Brady" than meets the eye, prompting the perennial question: "Could it be the 'Brady' bunch bringing about this uncanny correlation?"
In conclusion, this investigation offers a lighthearted yet thought-probing examination of the curious connection between the frequency of the name "Brady" and the ebbs and flows of BBVA's stock price. These findings invite us to humorously ponder if there is indeed a hidden financial force behind the name "Brady," or if it's simply a serendipitous stroke of statistical fate.

ChatGPT:

"Brady name popularity stock correlation," "BBVA stock performance Brady name," "Financial impact of name Brady on BBVA," "Effect of Brady name on stock price," "Brady name correlation BBVA stock," "Influence of Brady name on international finance," "Brady name newborn frequency stock correlation," "Brady effect on Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria stock," "Connection between Brady name frequency and BBVA stock performance," "Name Brady impact on international stock market"

*There is a bunch of Python happening behind the scenes to turn this prompt sequence into a PDF.

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Data details

Popularity of the first name Brady
Detailed data title: Babies of all sexes born in the US named Brady
Source: US Social Security Administration
See what else correlates with Popularity of the first name Brady

Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria's stock price (BBVA)
Detailed data title: Opening price of Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria (BBVA) on the first trading day of the year
Source: LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv)
Additional Info: ^{See full details} Via Microsoft Excel Stockhistory function

See what else correlates with Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria's stock price (BBVA)

Correlation r = 0.9173487 (Pearson correlation coefficient)
Correlation is a measure of how much the variables move together. If it is 0.99, when one goes up the other goes up. If it is 0.02, the connection is very weak or non-existent. If it is -0.99, then when one goes up the other goes down. If it is 1.00, you probably messed up your correlation function.

r² = 0.8415287 (Coefficient of determination)
This means 84.2% of the change in the one variable (i.e., Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria's stock price (BBVA)) is predictable based on the change in the other (i.e., Popularity of the first name Brady) over the 21 years from 2002 through 2022.

p < 0.01, which is statistically significant(Null hypothesis significance test)
The p-value is 4.9E-9.^Show 0.0000000048981081463530980000
The p-value is a measure of how probable it is that we would randomly find a result this extreme.^Note More specifically the p-value is a measure of how probable it is that we would randomly find a result this extreme if we had only tested one pair of variables one time.

But I am a p-villain. I absolutely did not test only one pair of variables one time. I correlated hundreds of millions of pairs of variables. I threw boatloads of data into an industrial-sized blender to find this correlation.

Who is going to stop me? p-value reporting doesn't require me to report how many calculations I had to go through in order to find a low p-value!
On average, you will find a correaltion as strong as 0.92 in 4.9E-7% of random cases. Said differently, if you correlated 204,160,457 random variables^Note You don't actually need 204 million variables to find a correlation like this one. I don't have that many variables in my database. You can also correlate variables that are not independent. I do this a lot.

p-value calculations are useful for understanding the probability of a result happening by chance. They are most useful when used to highlight the risk of a fluke outcome. For example, if you calculate a p-value of 0.30, the risk that the result is a fluke is high. It is good to know that! But there are lots of ways to get a p-value of less than 0.01, as evidenced by this project.

In this particular case, the values are so extreme as to be meaningless. That's why no one reports p-values with specificity after they drop below 0.01.

Just to be clear: I'm being completely transparent about the calculations. There is no math trickery. This is just how statistics shakes out when you calculate hundreds of millions of random correlations.
with the same 20 degrees of freedom, ^Note Degrees of freedom is a measure of how many free components we are testing. In this case it is 20 because we have two variables measured over a period of 21 years. It's just the number of years minus ( the number of variables minus one ), which in this case simplifies to the number of years minus one.
you would randomly expect to find a correlation as strong as this one.

[ 0.8, 0.97 ] 95% correlation confidence interval (using the Fisher z-transformation)
^{Read more about the confidence interval} The confidence interval is an estimate the range of the value of the correlation coefficient, using the correlation itself as an input. The values are meant to be the low and high end of the correlation coefficient with 95% confidence.

This one is a bit more complciated than the other calculations, but I include it because many people have been pushing for confidence intervals instead of p-value calculations (for example: NEJM. However, if you are dredging data, you can reliably find yourself in the 5%. That's my goal!

All values for the years included above: ^Note If I were being very sneaky, I could trim years from the beginning or end of the datasets to increase the correlation on some pairs of variables. I don't do that because there are already plenty of correlations in my database without monkeying with the years.

Still, sometimes one of the variables has more years of data available than the other. This page only shows the overlapping years. To see all the years, click on "See what else correlates with..." link above.

	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
Popularity of the first name Brady (Babies born)	2697	2907	3419	3823	4149	5015	4868	3790	3266	3070	2902	2362	2130	2067	1794	1749	1435	1344	1138	1341	1260
Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria's stock price (BBVA) (Stock price)	12.15	9.41	13.54	17.21	17.56	24.07	23.64	11.99	18.14	10.01	8.76	9.58	12.04	9.61	7.21	6.89	8.52	5.18	5.66	5	5.9

Why this works

Data dredging: I have 25,153 variables in my database. I compare all these variables against each other to find ones that randomly match up. That's 632,673,409 correlation calculations! This is called “data dredging.” Instead of starting with a hypothesis and testing it, I instead abused the data to see what correlations shake out. It’s a dangerous way to go about analysis, because any sufficiently large dataset will yield strong correlations completely at random.
Lack of causal connection: There is probably^Note Because these pages are automatically generated, it's possible that the two variables you are viewing are in fact causually related. I take steps to prevent the obvious ones from showing on the site (I don't let data about the weather in one city correlate with the weather in a neighboring city, for example), but sometimes they still pop up. If they are related, cool! You found a loophole.
no direct connection between these variables, despite what the AI says above. This is exacerbated by the fact that I used "Years" as the base variable. Lots of things happen in a year that are not related to each other! Most studies would use something like "one person" in stead of "one year" to be the "thing" studied.
Observations not independent: For many variables, sequential years are not independent of each other. If a population of people is continuously doing something every day, there is no reason to think they would suddenly change how they are doing that thing on January 1. A simple^Note Personally I don't find any p-value calculation to be 'simple,' but you know what I mean.
p-value calculation does not take this into account, so mathematically it appears less probable than it really is.

Try it yourself

You can calculate the values on this page on your own! Try running the Python code to see the calculation results. ^{Show the steps to do this.} Step 1: Download and install Python on your computer.

Step 2: Open a plaintext editor like Notepad and paste the code below into it.

Step 3: Save the file as "calculate_correlation.py" in a place you will remember, like your desktop. Copy the file location to your clipboard. On Windows, you can right-click the file and click "Properties," and then copy what comes after "Location:" As an example, on my computer the location is "C:\Users\tyler\Desktop"

Step 4: Open a command line window. For example, by pressing start and typing "cmd" and them pressing enter.

Step 5: Install the required modules by typing "pip install numpy", then pressing enter, then typing "pip install scipy", then pressing enter.

Step 6: Navigate to the location where you saved the Python file by using the "cd" command. For example, I would type "cd C:\Users\tyler\Desktop" and push enter.

Step 7: Run the Python script by typing "python calculate_correlation.py"

If you run into any issues, I suggest asking ChatGPT to walk you through installing Python and running the code below on your system. Try this question:

"Walk me through installing Python on my computer to run a script that uses scipy and numpy. Go step-by-step and ask me to confirm before moving on. Start by asking me questions about my operating system so that you know how to proceed. Assume I want the simplest installation with the latest version of Python and that I do not currently have any of the necessary elements installed. Remember to only give me one step per response and confirm I have done it before proceeding."

# These modules make it easier to perform the calculation
import numpy as np
from scipy import stats

# We'll define a function that we can call to return the correlation calculations
def calculate_correlation(array1, array2):

    # Calculate Pearson correlation coefficient and p-value
    correlation, p_value = stats.pearsonr(array1, array2)

    # Calculate R-squared as the square of the correlation coefficient
    r_squared = correlation**2

    return correlation, r_squared, p_value

# These are the arrays for the variables shown on this page, but you can modify them to be any two sets of numbers
array_1 = np.array([2697,2907,3419,3823,4149,5015,4868,3790,3266,3070,2902,2362,2130,2067,1794,1749,1435,1344,1138,1341,1260,])
array_2 = np.array([12.15,9.41,13.54,17.21,17.56,24.07,23.64,11.99,18.14,10.01,8.76,9.58,12.04,9.61,7.21,6.89,8.52,5.18,5.66,5,5.9,])
array_1_name = "Popularity of the first name Brady"
array_2_name = "Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria's stock price (BBVA)"

# Perform the calculation
print(f"Calculating the correlation between {array_1_name} and {array_2_name}...")
correlation, r_squared, p_value = calculate_correlation(array_1, array_2)

# Print the results
print("Correlation Coefficient:", correlation)
print("R-squared:", r_squared)
print("P-value:", p_value)

Reuseable content

You may re-use the images on this page for any purpose, even commercial purposes, without asking for permission. The only requirement is that you attribute Tyler Vigen. ^Note Attribution can take many different forms. If you leave the "tylervigen.com" link in the image, that satisfies it just fine. If you remove it and move it to a footnote, that's fine too. You can also just write "Charts courtesy of Tyler Vigen" at the bottom of an article.

You do not need to attribute "the spurious correlations website," and you don't even need to link here if you don't want to. I don't gain anything from pageviews. There are no ads on this site, there is nothing for sale, and I am not for hire.

For the record, I am just one person. Tyler Vigen, he/him/his. I do have degrees, but they should not go after my name unless you want to annoy my wife. If that is your goal, then go ahead and cite me as "Tyler Vigen, A.A. A.A.S. B.A. J.D." Otherwise it is just "Tyler Vigen."

When spoken, my last name is pronounced "vegan," like I don't eat meat.

Full license details.
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Download images for these variables:

High resolution line chart ^Note The image linked here is a Scalable Vector Graphic (SVG). It is the highest resolution that is possible to achieve. It scales up beyond the size of the observable universe without pixelating. You do not need to email me asking if I have a higher resolution image. I do not. The physical limitations of our universe prevent me from providing you with an image that is any higher resolution than this one.

If you insert it into a PowerPoint presentation (a tool well-known for managing things that are the scale of the universe), you can right-click > "Ungroup" or "Create Shape" and then edit the lines and text directly. You can also change the colors this way.

Alternatively you can use a tool like Inkscape.
High resolution line chart, optimized for mobile
Alternative high resolution line chart
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Portable line chart (png), optimized for mobile
Line chart for only Popularity of the first name Brady
Line chart for only Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria's stock price (BBVA)
AI-generated correlation image
The spurious research paper: Brady's Bizarre Boom: Bellying Up Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria's Stock Price

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Correlation ID: 3678 · Black Variable ID: 2307 · Red Variable ID: 1752


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