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Spurious correlation #3,608 · View random

A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is Annual US household spending on utilities and the second variable is Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT's stock price (Persero).  The chart goes from 2002 to 2022, and the two variables track closely in value over that time. Small Image
Download png
, svg

AI explanation

As US household spending on utilities increased, more energy was being used, leading to a higher demand for telecommunications services in Indonesia. This put a spark in Telkom Indonesia's stock price as investors saw the potential for shocking profits. It's electrifying how these seemingly unrelated events are all connected in the high-voltage world of finance!

Model: dalle-3
Prompt: Generate an image of a high-tech living room in the United States, where a family is gathered. One side of the room showcases the household's electricity meter spinning rapidly, indicating high annual spending on utilities. On the other side, a group of smiling investors, all wearing sweatbands, are celebrating as they watch Telkom Indonesia's stock price rise on a big screen, reflecting their increased demand for the company's shares due to the surge in sweatband sales. The depiction should include only scenes, people, and objects, it should not include text or speech bubbles.
This image generation prompt was also generated by AI, using the following sequence:

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You select one of a few potential scene descriptors that seems to go along with the variables described. You respond only with the scene descriptions provided and say nothing else.
User prompt: Here are two variables: Annual US household spending on utilities and Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT's stock price (Persero). Given these, which of the following image style descriptions seems most appropriate? Pick the one that seems to be related to one of the variables at hand. Please respond with only one of the following potential descriptions: Whimsical illustration Concept art a meme An image that looks like it is a scene from A Disney Movie High-tech
ChatGPT: High-tech

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You describe simple visual scenes that depict the two variables stated. You combine both variables into one scene.
User prompt: Please describe a visual scene that prominently depicts both Annual US household spending on utilities and Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT's stock price (Persero), in the following situation: Because when US households spend more on utilities, it increases demand for sweatbands, causing a surge in Telkom Indonesia's stock as the leading supplier for sweaty investors.. Keep the description simple.
ChatGPT: In a cozy living room in the United States, a family is gathered together. On one side, the household's electricity meter spins rapidly, showing high annual spending on utilities. On the other side of the room, a group of smiling investors, all wearing sweatbands, are celebrating as they watch Telkom Indonesia's stock price rise on a big screen, reflecting their increased demand for the company's shares due to the surge in sweatband sales.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You write and improve image generation prompts for DALLE-3. You maintain the same subjects, but enhance the visuals.
User prompt: Please respond with an image generation prompt that would be likely to create an interesting visual using DALLE-3, using the following style: [ High-tech ] and depicting this scene: In a cozy living room in the United States, a family is gathered together. On one side, the household's electricity meter spins rapidly, showing high annual spending on utilities. On the other side of the room, a group of smiling investors, all wearing sweatbands, are celebrating as they watch Telkom Indonesia's stock price rise on a big screen, reflecting their increased demand for the company's shares due to the surge in sweatband sales. Keep the visual depiction simple. Do not include any words or speech bubbles.
ChatGPT: Generate an image of a high-tech living room in the United States, where a family is gathered. One side of the room showcases the household's electricity meter spinning rapidly, indicating high annual spending on utilities. On the other side, a group of smiling investors, all wearing sweatbands, are celebrating as they watch Telkom Indonesia's stock price rise on a big screen, reflecting their increased demand for the company's shares due to the surge in sweatband sales.

*Variations in the User Prompts from chart to chart are just the result of random number generation in Python. I wrote a few arrays of various styles and methods to ask questions to change up the results. Every time this site writes an explanation or generates an image, the script picks from each at random.

I sequence the requests into multiple prompts because I find GPT 3.5 to perform much better with short, well-managed contexts. Thus, I track the context directly in Python and only ask ChatGPT targeted questions.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106 (fine-tuned)
System prompt: You provide humorous responses in the form of plausible sounding explanations for correlations. You assume the correlation is causative for the purpose of the explanation even if it is ridiculous. You do not chat with the user, you only reply with the causal connection explanation and nothing else.
User prompt: Please make up a funny explanation for how an increase in Annual US household spending on utilities caused Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT's stock price (Persero) to increase.

AI academic paper

(Because p < 0.01)
Electricity Bills and Stock Thrills: The Shocking Relationship Between Household Utilities Spending and Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT Stock Price

Journal of Econo-Stock Dynamics

Jan 2024

Reminder: This paper is AI-generated. Not real!
Quick note: This sequence is long and repetitive. That's how the prompt engineering works for this one. I manage the output in Python to format it into this PDF.




Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You write titles and abstracts of goofy academic research papers.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, and add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please draft the title and abstract of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Annual US household spending on utilities and Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT's stock price (Persero). You can't resist a good dad joke. Add a relevant dad joke related to the content every couple of sentences.

Make the title punny if you can come up with clever pun. If not, just make it sound clever.

Your research team used data from Bureau of Labor Statistics and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv) to assess this nagging question. You found a correlation coefficient of 0.8868116 and p < 0.01 for 2002 to 2022.

Please respond in this format (replace "Lorem ipsum dolor sit" with your title and abstract)

[[TITLE]]
Lorem ipsum dolor sit

[[ABSTRACT]]
Lorem ipsum dolor sit



ChatGPT:
[[TITLE]]
"Electricity Bills and Stock Thrills: The Shocking Relationship Between Household Utilities Spending and Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT Stock Price"

[[ABSTRACT]]
This paper examines the electrifying connection between annual US household spending on utilities and the stock price of Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT. Using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv), we explored the sparks that fly between these seemingly unrelated variables. Our analysis revealed a high correlation coefficient of 0.8868116 and statistical significance at p < 0.01 for the period from 2002 to 2022.

In shedding light on this novel relationship, we've discovered that when households spend more on utilities, the stock price of Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT experiences a surge. This finding suggests that there may be an undisclosed current of influence running between these seemingly unconnected economic metrics. It's a watt-ful new insight that illuminates the ineffable interplay between consumer behavior and stock market performance.

Now, don't be shocked, but it seems that fluctuations in household electricity bills may be sparking a current of market influence that extends all the way to Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT. These findings provide a powerful jolt to existing economic theories, challenging us to wire our understanding of market dynamics more holistically.


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You draft the introduction section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the introduction section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Annual US household spending on utilities and Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT's stock price (Persero). You can't resist a good dad joke. Add a relevant dad joke related to the content every couple of sentences. Stay serious and dry most of the time, but then occasionally let your wit shine through.

Here is the title and abstract of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
"Electricity Bills and Stock Thrills: The Shocking Relationship Between Household Utilities Spending and Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT Stock Price"

[[ABSTRACT]]
This paper examines the electrifying connection between annual US household spending on utilities and the stock price of Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT. Using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv), we explored the sparks that fly between these seemingly unrelated variables. Our analysis revealed a high correlation coefficient of 0.8868116 and statistical significance at p < 0.01 for the period from 2002 to 2022.

In shedding light on this novel relationship, we've discovered that when households spend more on utilities, the stock price of Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT experiences a surge. This finding suggests that there may be an undisclosed current of influence running between these seemingly unconnected economic metrics. It's a watt-ful new insight that illuminates the ineffable interplay between consumer behavior and stock market performance.

Now, don't be shocked, but it seems that fluctuations in household electricity bills may be sparking a current of market influence that extends all the way to Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT. These findings provide a powerful jolt to existing economic theories, challenging us to wire our understanding of market dynamics more holistically.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[INTRODUCTION]]



ChatGPT:
[[INTRODUCTION]]

The relationship between consumer spending habits and stock market performance has long been of interest to economists and investors alike. Particularly, the impact of household spending on utilities on the stock price of Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT presents an intriguing puzzle. Could there be a hidden connection between the seemingly mundane act of paying electricity bills and the thrilling rollercoaster ride of stock price movements? This study aims to shed light on this electrifying relationship and illuminate the pathways through which such a connection might manifest.

One might be tempted to dimiss the significance of household utility spending on a corporation's stock performance. After all, what does the price of electricity have to do with the price of Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT's stock? But, as we like to say in academe, "There's always a current of influence if you know where to look."

The topic at hand is certainly charged with potential for surprise, but it is well worth examining, considering that the stock market is often perceived as a realm dictated solely by intricate financial models and geopolitical events. Yet, it is often the more seemingly mundane and overlooked factors that could be conducting the symphony of stock price dynamics. This study contributes to the broader understanding of the multifaceted web of influences on stock market behavior and the delicate dance between consumer actions and corporate performance.

As we unravel the enigmatic connection between household utility spending and stock price movements, it's important to maintain a grounded perspective. We must be ever vigilant for potential shocks to our understanding of economic relationships, and be prepared for any unexpected power surges — in our data and in our electrical sockets.


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You draft a literature review section of an academic research paper, that starts out dry for the first few sentences but then becomes hilarious and goofy.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up a literature review section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Annual US household spending on utilities and Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT's stock price (Persero). You can't resist a good dad joke. Add a relevant dad joke related to the content every couple of sentences.

Speak in the present tense for this section (the authors find...), as is common in academic research paper literature reviews. Name the sources in a format similar to this: In "Book," the authors find lorem and ipsum.

Make up the lorem and ipsum part, but make it sound related to the topic at hand.

Start by naming serious-sounding studies by authors like Smith, Doe, and Jones - but then quickly devolve. Name some real non-fiction books that would be related to the topic. Then name some real fiction books that sound like they could be related. Then name some cartoons and childrens' shows that you watched that are related to the topic.

Here is the title and abstract of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
"Electricity Bills and Stock Thrills: The Shocking Relationship Between Household Utilities Spending and Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT Stock Price"

[[ABSTRACT]]
This paper examines the electrifying connection between annual US household spending on utilities and the stock price of Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT. Using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv), we explored the sparks that fly between these seemingly unrelated variables. Our analysis revealed a high correlation coefficient of 0.8868116 and statistical significance at p < 0.01 for the period from 2002 to 2022.

In shedding light on this novel relationship, we've discovered that when households spend more on utilities, the stock price of Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT experiences a surge. This finding suggests that there may be an undisclosed current of influence running between these seemingly unconnected economic metrics. It's a watt-ful new insight that illuminates the ineffable interplay between consumer behavior and stock market performance.

Now, don't be shocked, but it seems that fluctuations in household electricity bills may be sparking a current of market influence that extends all the way to Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT. These findings provide a powerful jolt to existing economic theories, challenging us to wire our understanding of market dynamics more holistically.

-------

And here is the introduction section that led to this literature review:
[[INTRODUCTION]]
The relationship between consumer spending habits and stock market performance has long been of interest to economists and investors alike. Particularly, the impact of household spending on utilities on the stock price of Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT presents an intriguing puzzle. Could there be a hidden connection between the seemingly mundane act of paying electricity bills and the thrilling rollercoaster ride of stock price movements? This study aims to shed light on this electrifying relationship and illuminate the pathways through which such a connection might manifest.
One might be tempted to dimiss the significance of household utility spending on a corporation's stock performance. After all, what does the price of electricity have to do with the price of Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT's stock? But, as we like to say in academe, "There's always a current of influence if you know where to look."
The topic at hand is certainly charged with potential for surprise, but it is well worth examining, considering that the stock market is often perceived as a realm dictated solely by intricate financial models and geopolitical events. Yet, it is often the more seemingly mundane and overlooked factors that could be conducting the symphony of stock price dynamics. This study contributes to the broader understanding of the multifaceted web of influences on stock market behavior and the delicate dance between consumer actions and corporate performance.
As we unravel the enigmatic connection between household utility spending and stock price movements, it's important to maintain a grounded perspective. We must be ever vigilant for potential shocks to our understanding of economic relationships, and be prepared for any unexpected power surges — in our data and in our electrical sockets.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]



ChatGPT:
[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]

Recent studies by Smith et al. (2021) and Doe et al. (2020) have delved into the complex interplay between household spending patterns and stock market dynamics, shedding light on the interconnectedness of seemingly disparate economic variables. These studies have provided valuable insights into the ripple effects of consumer behavior on market performance. However, the specific relationship between annual US household spending on utilities and the stock price of Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT has remained largely unexplored.

In "The Economics of Electricity Markets," the authors find enlightening correlations between residential electricity consumption and economic indicators, offering a glimpse into the potential impact of household energy usage on broader economic activities. Similarly, "The Stock Market for Dummies" highlights the myriad factors that can influence stock prices, emphasizing the need to consider both macroeconomic trends and seemingly minor consumer behaviors.

Turning to the fictional realm, "The Shock Doctrine" by Naomi Klein presents a narrative that, while not directly related to household utility spending, emphasizes the surprising ways in which economic forces can shape society. On a more lighthearted note, "The Electric Kool-Aid Acid Test" by Tom Wolfe may not provide direct insights into our research topic, but its electrifying title certainly sparks a sense of intrigue.

In the realm of children's entertainment, cartoons such as "The Powerpuff Girls" and "Captain Planet" may seem unrelated to our study at first glance. However, these shows present themes of energy consumption, environmental impact, and societal interconnectedness, which can provide a whimsical perspective on the intricate relationships between consumer behavior and broader economic phenomena.

Furthermore, these seemingly unconnected sources serve as a reminder that even the most unexpected connections can hold profound significance – much like the surprising link between annual US household spending on utilities and the stock price of Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT. Just as a lightbulb moment can illuminate a room, our study aims to shine a spotlight on the electrifying relationship between these variables, offering a fresh perspective on the intricacies of market dynamics.


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You draft the methodology section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the methodology section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Annual US household spending on utilities and Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT's stock price (Persero). You can't resist a good dad joke. Add a relevant dad joke related to the content every couple of sentences. Stay serious and dry most of the time, but then occasionally let your wit shine through.

Your research team collected data from all across the internet, but mostly just used information from Bureau of Labor Statistics and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv) . You used data from 2002 to 2022

Make up the research methods you don't know. Make them a bit goofy and convoluted.

Here is the title, abstract, and introduction of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
"Electricity Bills and Stock Thrills: The Shocking Relationship Between Household Utilities Spending and Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT Stock Price"

[[ABSTRACT]]
This paper examines the electrifying connection between annual US household spending on utilities and the stock price of Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT. Using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv), we explored the sparks that fly between these seemingly unrelated variables. Our analysis revealed a high correlation coefficient of 0.8868116 and statistical significance at p < 0.01 for the period from 2002 to 2022.

In shedding light on this novel relationship, we've discovered that when households spend more on utilities, the stock price of Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT experiences a surge. This finding suggests that there may be an undisclosed current of influence running between these seemingly unconnected economic metrics. It's a watt-ful new insight that illuminates the ineffable interplay between consumer behavior and stock market performance.

Now, don't be shocked, but it seems that fluctuations in household electricity bills may be sparking a current of market influence that extends all the way to Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT. These findings provide a powerful jolt to existing economic theories, challenging us to wire our understanding of market dynamics more holistically.

[[INTRODUCTION]]
The relationship between consumer spending habits and stock market performance has long been of interest to economists and investors alike. Particularly, the impact of household spending on utilities on the stock price of Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT presents an intriguing puzzle. Could there be a hidden connection between the seemingly mundane act of paying electricity bills and the thrilling rollercoaster ride of stock price movements? This study aims to shed light on this electrifying relationship and illuminate the pathways through which such a connection might manifest.
One might be tempted to dimiss the significance of household utility spending on a corporation's stock performance. After all, what does the price of electricity have to do with the price of Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT's stock? But, as we like to say in academe, "There's always a current of influence if you know where to look."
The topic at hand is certainly charged with potential for surprise, but it is well worth examining, considering that the stock market is often perceived as a realm dictated solely by intricate financial models and geopolitical events. Yet, it is often the more seemingly mundane and overlooked factors that could be conducting the symphony of stock price dynamics. This study contributes to the broader understanding of the multifaceted web of influences on stock market behavior and the delicate dance between consumer actions and corporate performance.
As we unravel the enigmatic connection between household utility spending and stock price movements, it's important to maintain a grounded perspective. We must be ever vigilant for potential shocks to our understanding of economic relationships, and be prepared for any unexpected power surges — in our data and in our electrical sockets.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[METHODOLOGY]]



ChatGPT:

[[METHODOLOGY]]

To investigate the link between annual US household spending on utilities and the stock price of Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT, a rigorous and circuitous methodology was employed. The research team extracted data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv) covering the period from 2002 to 2022. The household spending on utilities data was obtained from the Consumer Expenditure Survey, while the stock price data for Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT was sourced from the LSEG Analytics.

To ensure robustness and prevent any potential short-circuits in our analysis, various statistical techniques were applied. A hierarchical regression analysis was performed to untangle the complex web of relationships between household utilities spending and stock price movements. This allowed us to control for potential confounding variables and isolate the current of influence running from one variable to the other. As we all know, a good regression analysis is all about making those variables feel like they're in control, even if they're just along for the ride.

Furthermore, a Granger causality test was conducted to assess the direction of causality between household utilities spending and stock price movements. This test helps to determine whether changes in one variable precede changes in the other, or vice versa. As the great economist once said, "Granger causality is like the chicken and egg problem - determining which came first is quite the hair-raising challenge."

In order to gauge the robustness of our findings, a sensitivity analysis was performed. Different time periods and variations in data sources were considered to evaluate the stability of the observed relationship. This was akin to conducting multiple trials to ensure that the experiment yielded consistent results—because in the world of research, we're always wired for error-checking.

Lastly, to handle the potential presence of outliers and maintain data integrity, a data cleansing process was undertaken. Any abnormalities and inconsistencies were meticulously identified and rectified, ensuring a smooth and uninterrupted flow of data for analysis. After all, just as no one wants a sudden power outage, no one wants their data to go dark.

In conclusion, the methodology adopted in this study was designed to be as rigorous as an electrical circuit diagram, ensuring a shockingly thorough examination of the relationship between annual US household spending on utilities and the stock price of Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT.

The methodology left no stone unturned, just like how a puzzled electrician leaves no wire untwisted. With this approach, the research team aimed to illuminate the underlying currents that connect seemingly disparate economic variables and spark new insights that may shed light on the intricate dance between consumer behavior and stock market performance.


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You draft the results section of an academic research paper. You speak in the past tense (you found...).
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the results section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Annual US household spending on utilities and Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT's stock price (Persero). You can't resist a good dad joke. Add a relevant dad joke related to the content every couple of sentences. Stay serious and dry most of the time, but then occasionally let your wit shine through.

Your research team collected data from all across the internet, but mostly just used information from Bureau of Labor Statistics and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv) .

For the time period 2002 to 2022, you found a correlation 0.8868116, r-squared of 0.7864348, and p < 0.01.

One figure will be included. The figure (Fig. 1) is a scatterplot showing the strong correlation between the two variables. You don't need to specify where; I will add the figure.

Here is the title and abstract of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
"Electricity Bills and Stock Thrills: The Shocking Relationship Between Household Utilities Spending and Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT Stock Price"

[[ABSTRACT]]
This paper examines the electrifying connection between annual US household spending on utilities and the stock price of Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT. Using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv), we explored the sparks that fly between these seemingly unrelated variables. Our analysis revealed a high correlation coefficient of 0.8868116 and statistical significance at p < 0.01 for the period from 2002 to 2022.

In shedding light on this novel relationship, we've discovered that when households spend more on utilities, the stock price of Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT experiences a surge. This finding suggests that there may be an undisclosed current of influence running between these seemingly unconnected economic metrics. It's a watt-ful new insight that illuminates the ineffable interplay between consumer behavior and stock market performance.

Now, don't be shocked, but it seems that fluctuations in household electricity bills may be sparking a current of market influence that extends all the way to Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT. These findings provide a powerful jolt to existing economic theories, challenging us to wire our understanding of market dynamics more holistically.

-------

And here is the methodology section that led to this result:
[[METHODOLOGY]]
The relationship between consumer spending habits and stock market performance has long been of interest to economists and investors alike. Particularly, the impact of household spending on utilities on the stock price of Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT presents an intriguing puzzle. Could there be a hidden connection between the seemingly mundane act of paying electricity bills and the thrilling rollercoaster ride of stock price movements? This study aims to shed light on this electrifying relationship and illuminate the pathways through which such a connection might manifest.
One might be tempted to dimiss the significance of household utility spending on a corporation's stock performance. After all, what does the price of electricity have to do with the price of Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT's stock? But, as we like to say in academe, "There's always a current of influence if you know where to look."
The topic at hand is certainly charged with potential for surprise, but it is well worth examining, considering that the stock market is often perceived as a realm dictated solely by intricate financial models and geopolitical events. Yet, it is often the more seemingly mundane and overlooked factors that could be conducting the symphony of stock price dynamics. This study contributes to the broader understanding of the multifaceted web of influences on stock market behavior and the delicate dance between consumer actions and corporate performance.
As we unravel the enigmatic connection between household utility spending and stock price movements, it's important to maintain a grounded perspective. We must be ever vigilant for potential shocks to our understanding of economic relationships, and be prepared for any unexpected power surges — in our data and in our electrical sockets.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[RESULTS]]



ChatGPT:

[[RESULTS]]

The analysis of the data revealed a strikingly high correlation coefficient of 0.8868116 between annual US household spending on utilities and Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT's stock price for the period from 2002 to 2022. This correlation indicates a strong positive relationship between these two variables, suggesting that fluctuations in household spending on utilities may be associated with movements in Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT's stock price. One might say the connection between these seemingly distant variables is positively electrifying.

The coefficient of determination (R-squared) of 0.7864348 indicates that approximately 78.64% of the variability in Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT's stock price can be explained by changes in annual US household spending on utilities. In other words, the data points seem to be closely clustered around the regression line, reinforcing the strength of the relationship between household utilities spending and Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT's stock price. It's as if the stock market and household electricity bills are conducting a harmonious duet.

The statistical analysis also confirmed that the relationship between annual US household spending on utilities and Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT's stock price was statistically significant at p < 0.01. This means that the likelihood of observing such a strong relationship by random chance is less than 1%, providing robust evidence of a meaningful connection between these variables. These results give new meaning to the phrase "shocking developments in the stock market."

The scatterplot (Fig. 1) visually illustrates the strong positive correlation between annual US household spending on utilities and Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT's stock price. The clustered data points align closely with the upward-sloping trend line, depicting the compelling relationship uncovered in this study. It's like witnessing the sparks fly between household spending on utilities and stock price movements.

In conclusion, the results of this analysis unveil a powerful and previously unexplored link between annual US household spending on utilities and the stock price of Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT. These findings may spark further research into the intricate interplay between consumer behavior and stock market dynamics, offering a bright new perspective on the electricity of market influence.


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You draft the discussion section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the discussion section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Annual US household spending on utilities and Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT's stock price (Persero). You can't resist a good dad joke. Add a relevant dad joke related to the content every couple of sentences. Stay serious and dry most of the time, but then occasionally let your wit shine through.

Limit your response to 500 tokens.

Here are the title, abstract, literature review, and results sections. Please harken back to 1-2 of the goofy items in the literature review, but pretend to take them completely seriously. Discuss how your results supported the prior research.

Do not write a conclusion. I will add a conclusion after this.

[[TITLE]]
"Electricity Bills and Stock Thrills: The Shocking Relationship Between Household Utilities Spending and Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT Stock Price"

[[ABSTRACT]]
This paper examines the electrifying connection between annual US household spending on utilities and the stock price of Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT. Using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv), we explored the sparks that fly between these seemingly unrelated variables. Our analysis revealed a high correlation coefficient of 0.8868116 and statistical significance at p < 0.01 for the period from 2002 to 2022.

In shedding light on this novel relationship, we've discovered that when households spend more on utilities, the stock price of Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT experiences a surge. This finding suggests that there may be an undisclosed current of influence running between these seemingly unconnected economic metrics. It's a watt-ful new insight that illuminates the ineffable interplay between consumer behavior and stock market performance.

Now, don't be shocked, but it seems that fluctuations in household electricity bills may be sparking a current of market influence that extends all the way to Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT. These findings provide a powerful jolt to existing economic theories, challenging us to wire our understanding of market dynamics more holistically.

[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]
Recent studies by Smith et al. (2021) and Doe et al. (2020) have delved into the complex interplay between household spending patterns and stock market dynamics, shedding light on the interconnectedness of seemingly disparate economic variables. These studies have provided valuable insights into the ripple effects of consumer behavior on market performance. However, the specific relationship between annual US household spending on utilities and the stock price of Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT has remained largely unexplored.
In "The Economics of Electricity Markets," the authors find enlightening correlations between residential electricity consumption and economic indicators, offering a glimpse into the potential impact of household energy usage on broader economic activities. Similarly, "The Stock Market for Dummies" highlights the myriad factors that can influence stock prices, emphasizing the need to consider both macroeconomic trends and seemingly minor consumer behaviors.
Turning to the fictional realm, "The Shock Doctrine" by Naomi Klein presents a narrative that, while not directly related to household utility spending, emphasizes the surprising ways in which economic forces can shape society. On a more lighthearted note, "The Electric Kool-Aid Acid Test" by Tom Wolfe may not provide direct insights into our research topic, but its electrifying title certainly sparks a sense of intrigue.
In the realm of children's entertainment, cartoons such as "The Powerpuff Girls" and "Captain Planet" may seem unrelated to our study at first glance. However, these shows present themes of energy consumption, environmental impact, and societal interconnectedness, which can provide a whimsical perspective on the intricate relationships between consumer behavior and broader economic phenomena.
Furthermore, these seemingly unconnected sources serve as a reminder that even the most unexpected connections can hold profound significance – much like the surprising link between annual US household spending on utilities and the stock price of Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT. Just as a lightbulb moment can illuminate a room, our study aims to shine a spotlight on the electrifying relationship between these variables, offering a fresh perspective on the intricacies of market dynamics.

[[RESULTS]]
The analysis of the data revealed a strikingly high correlation coefficient of 0.8868116 between annual US household spending on utilities and Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT's stock price for the period from 2002 to 2022. This correlation indicates a strong positive relationship between these two variables, suggesting that fluctuations in household spending on utilities may be associated with movements in Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT's stock price. One might say the connection between these seemingly distant variables is positively electrifying.
The coefficient of determination (R-squared) of 0.7864348 indicates that approximately 78.64% of the variability in Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT's stock price can be explained by changes in annual US household spending on utilities. In other words, the data points seem to be closely clustered around the regression line, reinforcing the strength of the relationship between household utilities spending and Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT's stock price. It's as if the stock market and household electricity bills are conducting a harmonious duet.
The statistical analysis also confirmed that the relationship between annual US household spending on utilities and Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT's stock price was statistically significant at p < 0.01. This means that the likelihood of observing such a strong relationship by random chance is less than 1%, providing robust evidence of a meaningful connection between these variables. These results give new meaning to the phrase "shocking developments in the stock market."
The scatterplot (Fig. 1) visually illustrates the strong positive correlation between annual US household spending on utilities and Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT's stock price. The clustered data points align closely with the upward-sloping trend line, depicting the compelling relationship uncovered in this study. It's like witnessing the sparks fly between household spending on utilities and stock price movements.
In conclusion, the results of this analysis unveil a powerful and previously unexplored link between annual US household spending on utilities and the stock price of Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT. These findings may spark further research into the intricate interplay between consumer behavior and stock market dynamics, offering a bright new perspective on the electricity of market influence.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[DISCUSSION]]



ChatGPT:

[[DISCUSSION]]

The results of this study provide compelling evidence of a noteworthy association between annual US household spending on utilities and the stock price of Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT. It appears that as US households amp up their spending on utilities, the stock price of Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT experiences a harmonic surge. These findings align with prior research by Smith et al. (2021) and Doe et al. (2020), reinforcing the notion that seemingly incongruous economic variables may indeed be entwined in a current of influence. It seems that when it comes to utility spending and stock prices, the power of correlation is truly electric.

The substantial correlation coefficient and high degree of statistical significance observed in this study offer a jolting confirmation of the interconnectedness between household spending on utilities and stock price movements. These results not only shed light on an unexplored relationship, but also illuminate the electrifying impact of consumer behavior on market dynamics. One could say that the findings provide a shocking revelation - much like discovering that a coil of wires and a magnet can produce electricity.

The value of the coefficient of determination (R-squared) in this analysis indicates that a considerable proportion of the variability in Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT's stock price can be attributed to changes in annual US household spending on utilities, underscoring the robustness of the observed association. It's as if the movements of stock prices and the whims of household energy consumption are engaged in a highly charged pas de deux that merits further exploration. If correlation were a currency, this relationship would certainly spark considerable interest.

The visual representation of the relationship through the scatterplot vividly captures the aligned dance of household spending on utilities and Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT's stock price. The clustered data points huddle closely around the ascending trend line, illustrating the intimate connection between these variables. One could almost visualize the utility bills and stock prices engaging in a lively tango, each influencing the other's steps with a synchronized rhythm. It seems that in the realm of economic interactions, the sparks of correlation can fly unexpectedly between even the most distant of domains.

In a market landscape that often operates under the guise of inscrutability, these findings offer a ray of clarity, illuminating the profound and previously overlooked ties between consumer behavior and stock market performance. Moving forward, researchers and market analysts may find value in considering the interplay between household utilities spending and stock prices as a potential indicator of market movements. This study underscores the need to integrate seemingly unrelated economic variables into a more cohesive understanding of market dynamics - after all, one cannot overlook the power of the spark in shaping economic relationships.

The discovery of this remarkable link between annual US household spending on utilities and Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT's stock price provides an electrifying glimpse into the intricate interdependencies that underpin economic systems. These results invite future explorations into the nuanced interplay between consumer behavior and market movements, offering a stimulating avenue for further research. As the saying goes, when it comes to market influences, the shockingly unexpected often holds the keys to understanding the currents that drive economic phenomena.


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You draft the discussion section of goofy academic research papers that sounds like it belongs based on the title and abstract provided.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up a short conclusion of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Annual US household spending on utilities and Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT's stock price (Persero). You can't resist a good dad joke. Add a relevant dad joke related to the content every couple of sentences. Stay serious and dry most of the time, but then occasionally let your wit shine through.

Limit your response to 300 tokens. At the very end, assert that no more research is needed in this area.

Here are the title, abstract, introduction, and results sections.
[[TITLE]]
"Electricity Bills and Stock Thrills: The Shocking Relationship Between Household Utilities Spending and Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT Stock Price"

[[ABSTRACT]]
This paper examines the electrifying connection between annual US household spending on utilities and the stock price of Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT. Using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv), we explored the sparks that fly between these seemingly unrelated variables. Our analysis revealed a high correlation coefficient of 0.8868116 and statistical significance at p < 0.01 for the period from 2002 to 2022.

In shedding light on this novel relationship, we've discovered that when households spend more on utilities, the stock price of Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT experiences a surge. This finding suggests that there may be an undisclosed current of influence running between these seemingly unconnected economic metrics. It's a watt-ful new insight that illuminates the ineffable interplay between consumer behavior and stock market performance.

Now, don't be shocked, but it seems that fluctuations in household electricity bills may be sparking a current of market influence that extends all the way to Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT. These findings provide a powerful jolt to existing economic theories, challenging us to wire our understanding of market dynamics more holistically.

[[INTRDUCTION]]
The relationship between consumer spending habits and stock market performance has long been of interest to economists and investors alike. Particularly, the impact of household spending on utilities on the stock price of Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT presents an intriguing puzzle. Could there be a hidden connection between the seemingly mundane act of paying electricity bills and the thrilling rollercoaster ride of stock price movements? This study aims to shed light on this electrifying relationship and illuminate the pathways through which such a connection might manifest.
One might be tempted to dimiss the significance of household utility spending on a corporation's stock performance. After all, what does the price of electricity have to do with the price of Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT's stock? But, as we like to say in academe, "There's always a current of influence if you know where to look."
The topic at hand is certainly charged with potential for surprise, but it is well worth examining, considering that the stock market is often perceived as a realm dictated solely by intricate financial models and geopolitical events. Yet, it is often the more seemingly mundane and overlooked factors that could be conducting the symphony of stock price dynamics. This study contributes to the broader understanding of the multifaceted web of influences on stock market behavior and the delicate dance between consumer actions and corporate performance.
As we unravel the enigmatic connection between household utility spending and stock price movements, it's important to maintain a grounded perspective. We must be ever vigilant for potential shocks to our understanding of economic relationships, and be prepared for any unexpected power surges — in our data and in our electrical sockets.

[[RESULTS]]
The analysis of the data revealed a strikingly high correlation coefficient of 0.8868116 between annual US household spending on utilities and Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT's stock price for the period from 2002 to 2022. This correlation indicates a strong positive relationship between these two variables, suggesting that fluctuations in household spending on utilities may be associated with movements in Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT's stock price. One might say the connection between these seemingly distant variables is positively electrifying.
The coefficient of determination (R-squared) of 0.7864348 indicates that approximately 78.64% of the variability in Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT's stock price can be explained by changes in annual US household spending on utilities. In other words, the data points seem to be closely clustered around the regression line, reinforcing the strength of the relationship between household utilities spending and Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT's stock price. It's as if the stock market and household electricity bills are conducting a harmonious duet.
The statistical analysis also confirmed that the relationship between annual US household spending on utilities and Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT's stock price was statistically significant at p < 0.01. This means that the likelihood of observing such a strong relationship by random chance is less than 1%, providing robust evidence of a meaningful connection between these variables. These results give new meaning to the phrase "shocking developments in the stock market."
The scatterplot (Fig. 1) visually illustrates the strong positive correlation between annual US household spending on utilities and Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT's stock price. The clustered data points align closely with the upward-sloping trend line, depicting the compelling relationship uncovered in this study. It's like witnessing the sparks fly between household spending on utilities and stock price movements.
In conclusion, the results of this analysis unveil a powerful and previously unexplored link between annual US household spending on utilities and the stock price of Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT. These findings may spark further research into the intricate interplay between consumer behavior and stock market dynamics, offering a bright new perspective on the electricity of market influence.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[CONCLUSION]]



ChatGPT:

[[CONCLUSION]]

In conclusion, the findings of this study illuminate a strikingly strong positive relationship between annual US household spending on utilities and Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT's stock price. This research has sparked a new perspective on the interplay between seemingly unconnected economic variables, offering valuable insights into the electrifying currents running through consumer behavior and stock market dynamics. It seems the market truly does have a shocking sense of humor.

These findings challenge conventional economic models, reminding us to always be open to unexpected links and currents. We must be mindful of potential power surges, whether in our data or in our electrical sockets, as they could shed light on previously unseen market influences. One might say this study has truly turned the lights on in an otherwise dark and perplexing corner of economic inquiry.

It is clear that further research in this area is not needed; we have already shed a bright light on the previously overlooked relationship between household utilities spending and stock market behavior. There's no need to keep digging for more sparks; the fuse of this inquiry has been well and truly lit.


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide fictional names of academic journals. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide the name of a funny but plausible sounding research, scientific, or academic journal that would publish a paper entited Electricity Bills and Stock Thrills: The Shocking Relationship Between Household Utilities Spending and Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT Stock Price. Respond only with the name of a fictional academic journal.

ChatGPT:

Journal of Econo-Stock Dynamics


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide fictional names of nonprofit research organizations and associations. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide the name of a funny but plausible sounding nonprofit, academic, or scientific association or organization that would sponsor research that resulted in a paper entited Electricity Bills and Stock Thrills: The Shocking Relationship Between Household Utilities Spending and Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT Stock Price. Respond only with the name of a fictional organization.

ChatGPT:

Society for Eclectic Economic Analysis and Insights


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide potential search keywords separated by commas. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide potential search keywords for a paper titled Electricity Bills and Stock Thrills: The Shocking Relationship Between Household Utilities Spending and Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT Stock Price with an abstract of This paper examines the electrifying connection between annual US household spending on utilities and the stock price of Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT. Using data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv), we explored the sparks that fly between these seemingly unrelated variables. Our analysis revealed a high correlation coefficient of 0.8868116 and statistical significance at p < 0.01 for the period from 2002 to 2022.
In shedding light on this novel relationship, we've discovered that when households spend more on utilities, the stock price of Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT experiences a surge. This finding suggests that there may be an undisclosed current of influence running between these seemingly unconnected economic metrics. It's a watt-ful new insight that illuminates the ineffable interplay between consumer behavior and stock market performance.
Now, don't be shocked, but it seems that fluctuations in household electricity bills may be sparking a current of market influence that extends all the way to Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT. These findings provide a powerful jolt to existing economic theories, challenging us to wire our understanding of market dynamics more holistically.

ChatGPT:

"electricity bills, household utilities spending, stock price, Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT, correlation, consumer behavior, market performance, Bureau of Labor Statistics, LSEG Analytics, Refinitiv, market dynamics, economic influence, stock market, household spending"

*There is a bunch of Python happening behind the scenes to turn this prompt sequence into a PDF.



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Data details

Annual US household spending on utilities
Detailed data title: Average annual household spend on utilities
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
See what else correlates with Annual US household spending on utilities

Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT's stock price (Persero)
Detailed data title: Opening price of Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT (TLK) on the first trading day of the year
Source: LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv)
Additional Info: Via Microsoft Excel Stockhistory function

See what else correlates with Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT's stock price (Persero)

Correlation r = 0.8868116 (Pearson correlation coefficient)
Correlation is a measure of how much the variables move together. If it is 0.99, when one goes up the other goes up. If it is 0.02, the connection is very weak or non-existent. If it is -0.99, then when one goes up the other goes down. If it is 1.00, you probably messed up your correlation function.

r2 = 0.7864348 (Coefficient of determination)
This means 78.6% of the change in the one variable (i.e., Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT's stock price (Persero)) is predictable based on the change in the other (i.e., Annual US household spending on utilities) over the 21 years from 2002 through 2022.

p < 0.01, which is statistically significant(Null hypothesis significance test)
The p-value is 8.6E-8. 0.0000000859207304846101000000
The p-value is a measure of how probable it is that we would randomly find a result this extreme. More specifically the p-value is a measure of how probable it is that we would randomly find a result this extreme if we had only tested one pair of variables one time.

But I am a p-villain. I absolutely did not test only one pair of variables one time. I correlated hundreds of millions of pairs of variables. I threw boatloads of data into an industrial-sized blender to find this correlation.

Who is going to stop me? p-value reporting doesn't require me to report how many calculations I had to go through in order to find a low p-value!
On average, you will find a correaltion as strong as 0.89 in 8.6E-6% of random cases. Said differently, if you correlated 11,638,635 random variables You don't actually need 11 million variables to find a correlation like this one. I don't have that many variables in my database. You can also correlate variables that are not independent. I do this a lot.

p-value calculations are useful for understanding the probability of a result happening by chance. They are most useful when used to highlight the risk of a fluke outcome. For example, if you calculate a p-value of 0.30, the risk that the result is a fluke is high. It is good to know that! But there are lots of ways to get a p-value of less than 0.01, as evidenced by this project.

In this particular case, the values are so extreme as to be meaningless. That's why no one reports p-values with specificity after they drop below 0.01.

Just to be clear: I'm being completely transparent about the calculations. There is no math trickery. This is just how statistics shakes out when you calculate hundreds of millions of random correlations.
with the same 20 degrees of freedom, Degrees of freedom is a measure of how many free components we are testing. In this case it is 20 because we have two variables measured over a period of 21 years. It's just the number of years minus ( the number of variables minus one ), which in this case simplifies to the number of years minus one.
you would randomly expect to find a correlation as strong as this one.

[ 0.74, 0.95 ] 95% correlation confidence interval (using the Fisher z-transformation)
The confidence interval is an estimate the range of the value of the correlation coefficient, using the correlation itself as an input. The values are meant to be the low and high end of the correlation coefficient with 95% confidence.

This one is a bit more complciated than the other calculations, but I include it because many people have been pushing for confidence intervals instead of p-value calculations (for example: NEJM. However, if you are dredging data, you can reliably find yourself in the 5%. That's my goal!


All values for the years included above: If I were being very sneaky, I could trim years from the beginning or end of the datasets to increase the correlation on some pairs of variables. I don't do that because there are already plenty of correlations in my database without monkeying with the years.

Still, sometimes one of the variables has more years of data available than the other. This page only shows the overlapping years. To see all the years, click on "See what else correlates with..." link above.
200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022
Annual US household spending on utilities (Household spend)268428112927318333973477364936453660372736483737392138853884383640494055415842234549
Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT's stock price (Persero) (Stock price)2.784.138.210.2712.1122.8320.3111.7419.7117.515.0118.0717.4322.3622.2729.1132.326.0128.3924.6629.25




Why this works

  1. Data dredging: I have 25,153 variables in my database. I compare all these variables against each other to find ones that randomly match up. That's 632,673,409 correlation calculations! This is called “data dredging.” Instead of starting with a hypothesis and testing it, I instead abused the data to see what correlations shake out. It’s a dangerous way to go about analysis, because any sufficiently large dataset will yield strong correlations completely at random.
  2. Lack of causal connection: There is probably Because these pages are automatically generated, it's possible that the two variables you are viewing are in fact causually related. I take steps to prevent the obvious ones from showing on the site (I don't let data about the weather in one city correlate with the weather in a neighboring city, for example), but sometimes they still pop up. If they are related, cool! You found a loophole.
    no direct connection between these variables, despite what the AI says above. This is exacerbated by the fact that I used "Years" as the base variable. Lots of things happen in a year that are not related to each other! Most studies would use something like "one person" in stead of "one year" to be the "thing" studied.
  3. Observations not independent: For many variables, sequential years are not independent of each other. If a population of people is continuously doing something every day, there is no reason to think they would suddenly change how they are doing that thing on January 1. A simple Personally I don't find any p-value calculation to be 'simple,' but you know what I mean.
    p-value calculation does not take this into account, so mathematically it appears less probable than it really is.
  4. Y-axis doesn't start at zero: I truncated the Y-axes of the graph above. I also used a line graph, which makes the visual connection stand out more than it deserves. Nothing against line graphs. They are great at telling a story when you have linear data! But visually it is deceptive because the only data is at the points on the graph, not the lines on the graph. In between each point, the data could have been doing anything. Like going for a random walk by itself!
    Mathematically what I showed is true, but it is intentionally misleading. Below is the same chart but with both Y-axes starting at zero.




Try it yourself

You can calculate the values on this page on your own! Try running the Python code to see the calculation results. Step 1: Download and install Python on your computer.

Step 2: Open a plaintext editor like Notepad and paste the code below into it.

Step 3: Save the file as "calculate_correlation.py" in a place you will remember, like your desktop. Copy the file location to your clipboard. On Windows, you can right-click the file and click "Properties," and then copy what comes after "Location:" As an example, on my computer the location is "C:\Users\tyler\Desktop"

Step 4: Open a command line window. For example, by pressing start and typing "cmd" and them pressing enter.

Step 5: Install the required modules by typing "pip install numpy", then pressing enter, then typing "pip install scipy", then pressing enter.

Step 6: Navigate to the location where you saved the Python file by using the "cd" command. For example, I would type "cd C:\Users\tyler\Desktop" and push enter.

Step 7: Run the Python script by typing "python calculate_correlation.py"

If you run into any issues, I suggest asking ChatGPT to walk you through installing Python and running the code below on your system. Try this question:

"Walk me through installing Python on my computer to run a script that uses scipy and numpy. Go step-by-step and ask me to confirm before moving on. Start by asking me questions about my operating system so that you know how to proceed. Assume I want the simplest installation with the latest version of Python and that I do not currently have any of the necessary elements installed. Remember to only give me one step per response and confirm I have done it before proceeding."


# These modules make it easier to perform the calculation
import numpy as np
from scipy import stats

# We'll define a function that we can call to return the correlation calculations
def calculate_correlation(array1, array2):

    # Calculate Pearson correlation coefficient and p-value
    correlation, p_value = stats.pearsonr(array1, array2)

    # Calculate R-squared as the square of the correlation coefficient
    r_squared = correlation**2

    return correlation, r_squared, p_value

# These are the arrays for the variables shown on this page, but you can modify them to be any two sets of numbers
array_1 = np.array([2684,2811,2927,3183,3397,3477,3649,3645,3660,3727,3648,3737,3921,3885,3884,3836,4049,4055,4158,4223,4549,])
array_2 = np.array([2.78,4.13,8.2,10.27,12.11,22.83,20.31,11.74,19.71,17.5,15.01,18.07,17.43,22.36,22.27,29.11,32.3,26.01,28.39,24.66,29.25,])
array_1_name = "Annual US household spending on utilities"
array_2_name = "Telkom Indonesia (Persero) Tbk PT's stock price (Persero)"

# Perform the calculation
print(f"Calculating the correlation between {array_1_name} and {array_2_name}...")
correlation, r_squared, p_value = calculate_correlation(array_1, array_2)

# Print the results
print("Correlation Coefficient:", correlation)
print("R-squared:", r_squared)
print("P-value:", p_value)



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Correlation ID: 3608 · Black Variable ID: 19908 · Red Variable ID: 1882
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