Download png, svg
AI explanation
As air quality improved, it turns out that there was less need for people to "burn" with anger, leading to a reduction in fiery crimes. This unexpected correlation has sparked a new approach to fire prevention - just clear the air and let the flames of arson fizzle out!
Model: dalle-3
Prompt: Prompt: [ Symbolism ] Generate an image of a city skyline in Dallas blanketed by a thick, hazy layer of poor air quality. In the forefront, depict firefighters battling the aftermath of an arson attack on a building, with smoke billowing into the polluted air. The image should convey a sense of struggle, resilience, and the impact of environmental pollution. The depiction should include only scenes, people, and objects, it should not include text or speech bubbles.
This image generation prompt was also generated by AI, using the following sequence:
Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You select one of a few potential scene descriptors that seems to go along with the variables described. You respond only with the scene descriptions provided and say nothing else.
User prompt: Here are two variables: Poor air quality in Dallas and Arson in United States. Given these, which of the following image style descriptions seems most appropriate? Pick the one that seems to be related to one of the variables at hand. Please respond with only one of the following potential descriptions: Symbolism Woodblock painting Scalar art Futuristic Cyberpunk
ChatGPT: Symbolism
Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You describe simple visual scenes that depict the two variables stated. You combine both variables into one scene.
User prompt: Please describe a visual scene that prominently depicts both Poor air quality in Dallas and Arson in United States together. Keep the description simple.
ChatGPT: In Dallas, the thick haze of poor air quality hangs over the skyline as firefighters combat the aftermath of an arson attack on a nearby building, the smoke mingling with the already polluted air.
Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You write and improve image generation prompts for DALLE-3. You maintain the same subjects, but enhance the visuals.
User prompt: Please respond with an image generation prompt that would be likely to create an interesting visual using DALLE-3, using the following style: [ Symbolism ] and depicting this scene: In Dallas, the thick haze of poor air quality hangs over the skyline as firefighters combat the aftermath of an arson attack on a nearby building, the smoke mingling with the already polluted air. Keep the visual depiction simple. Do not include any words or speech bubbles.
ChatGPT: Prompt: [ Symbolism ] Generate an image of a city skyline in Dallas blanketed by a thick, hazy layer of poor air quality. In the forefront, depict firefighters battling the aftermath of an arson attack on a building, with smoke billowing into the polluted air. The image should convey a sense of struggle, resilience, and the impact of environmental pollution.
*Variations in the User Prompts from chart to chart are just the result of random number generation in Python. I wrote a few arrays of various styles and methods to ask questions to change up the results. Every time this site writes an explanation or generates an image, the script picks from each at random.
I sequence the requests into multiple prompts because I find GPT 3.5 to perform much better with short, well-managed contexts. Thus, I track the context directly in Python and only ask ChatGPT targeted questions.
System prompt: You provide humorous responses in the form of plausible sounding explanations for correlations. You assume the correlation is causative for the purpose of the explanation even if it is ridiculous. You do not chat with the user, you only reply with the causal connection explanation and nothing else.
User prompt: Please make up a funny explanation for how a decrease in Air pollution in Dallas caused Arson in United States to decrease.
AI academic paper
 |
Up in Smoke: Investigating the Link Between Air Pollution in Dallas and Arson in the United States The Journal of Environmental Criminology and Atmospheric Chemistry Jan 2024 Reminder: This paper is AI-generated. Not real! |
Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You write titles and abstracts of goofy academic research papers.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, and add unexpected twists in your writing.
Please draft the title and abstract of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Air pollution in Dallas and Arson in United States. Make it seem dry like academic research paper, but with lots of subtle hidden offhand remarks, jokes, goofy observations, and puns.
Make the title punny if you can come up with clever pun. If not, just make it sound clever.
Your research team used data from Environmental Protection Agency and FBI Criminal Justice Information Services to assess this nagging question. You found a correlation coefficient of 0.7797117 and p < 0.01 for 1985 to 2022.
Please respond in this format (replace "Lorem ipsum dolor sit" with your title and abstract)
[[TITLE]]
Lorem ipsum dolor sit
[[ABSTRACT]]
Lorem ipsum dolor sit
ChatGPT:
[[TITLE]]
Up in Smoke: Investigating the Link Between Air Pollution in Dallas and Arson in the United States
[[ABSTRACT]]
The aim of this study was to elucidate the potential relationship between air pollution levels in Dallas and incidences of arson across the United States. Leveraging data from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services, our research team conducted an extensive analysis spanning from 1985 to 2022. Employing rigorous statistical methods, a striking correlation coefficient of 0.7797117 and a p-value less than 0.01 were observed, hinting at an unexpected connection between these seemingly disparate phenomena. Our findings showcase the need for further investigation into the potential influences of environmental factors on criminal behavior, igniting new avenues of research in the field. While the specific mechanisms underlying this association remain enshrouded in smoke, our study marks a significant step toward understanding the combustible interplay between air quality and arson.
Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You draft the introduction section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.
Please make up the introduction section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Air pollution in Dallas and Arson in United States. Make it seem dry like academic research paper, but with lots of subtle hidden offhand remarks, jokes, goofy observations, and puns. Stay serious and dry most of the time, but then occasionally let your wit shine through.
Here is the title and abstract of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
Up in Smoke: Investigating the Link Between Air Pollution in Dallas and Arson in the United States
[[ABSTRACT]]
The aim of this study was to elucidate the potential relationship between air pollution levels in Dallas and incidences of arson across the United States. Leveraging data from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services, our research team conducted an extensive analysis spanning from 1985 to 2022. Employing rigorous statistical methods, a striking correlation coefficient of 0.7797117 and a p-value less than 0.01 were observed, hinting at an unexpected connection between these seemingly disparate phenomena. Our findings showcase the need for further investigation into the potential influences of environmental factors on criminal behavior, igniting new avenues of research in the field. While the specific mechanisms underlying this association remain enshrouded in smoke, our study marks a significant step toward understanding the combustible interplay between air quality and arson.
-------
Your response should start like this:
[[INTRODUCTION]]
ChatGPT:
[[INTRODUCTION]]
Arson, the deliberate act of setting fire to property or vegetation, has long been a concern for law enforcement and fire prevention agencies. The economic and human costs associated with arson incidents are significant, not to mention the environmental impact of releasing harmful chemicals and greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. Meanwhile, air pollution in urban areas like Dallas continues to be a pressing public health issue, with implications for respiratory health and overall well-being. While these two issues may appear unrelated at first glance, the possibility of a connection between them has sparked scholarly interest and speculation.
The combustion of materials during arson incidents releases a range of pollutants into the air, including carbon monoxide, particulate matter, and volatile organic compounds. These emissions contribute to the overall burden of air pollution, which can have far-reaching effects on public health and the environment. The link between air pollution and various health outcomes has been extensively documented, but the potential intersection with criminal behavior has received less attention until now.
Our study seeks to shed light on the relationship between air pollution in Dallas and incidences of arson across the United States. By examining data from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services, we aim to uncover any patterns or associations that may exist between these seemingly distinct phenomena. While the idea of a connection between air quality and arson may seem far-fetched, our preliminary analysis has unearthed some provocative findings that warrant further investigation.
This paper presents the results of our comprehensive analysis, revealing a surprising correlation between air pollution levels in Dallas and the incidence of arson nationwide. The implications of this unexpected relationship extend beyond the scope of traditional criminology and environmental science, marking a potential convergence of disciplines that may inspire a new wave of interdisciplinary inquiry.
Despite the provocative nature of our findings, it is important to approach this topic with cautious skepticism and a critical eye. Correlation does not imply causation, and there may be confounding variables that have yet to be fully accounted for in our analysis. Nonetheless, the tantalizing prospect of a connection between air pollution and arson beckons further exploration, igniting a fire of curiosity within the research community.
Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You draft a literature review section of an academic research paper, that starts out dry for the first few sentences but then becomes hilarious and goofy.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.
Please make up a literature review section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Air pollution in Dallas and Arson in United States. Make it seem dry like academic research paper, but with lots of subtle hidden offhand remarks, jokes, goofy observations, and puns.
Speak in the present tense for this section (the authors find...), as is common in academic research paper literature reviews. Name the sources in a format similar to this: In "Book," the authors find lorem and ipsum.
Make up the lorem and ipsum part, but make it sound related to the topic at hand.
Start by naming serious-sounding studies by authors like Smith, Doe, and Jones - but then quickly devolve. Name some real non-fiction books that would be related to the topic. Then name some real fiction books that sound like they could be related. Then cite some social media posts you read that seem to be related.
Here is the title and abstract of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
Up in Smoke: Investigating the Link Between Air Pollution in Dallas and Arson in the United States
[[ABSTRACT]]
The aim of this study was to elucidate the potential relationship between air pollution levels in Dallas and incidences of arson across the United States. Leveraging data from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services, our research team conducted an extensive analysis spanning from 1985 to 2022. Employing rigorous statistical methods, a striking correlation coefficient of 0.7797117 and a p-value less than 0.01 were observed, hinting at an unexpected connection between these seemingly disparate phenomena. Our findings showcase the need for further investigation into the potential influences of environmental factors on criminal behavior, igniting new avenues of research in the field. While the specific mechanisms underlying this association remain enshrouded in smoke, our study marks a significant step toward understanding the combustible interplay between air quality and arson.
-------
And here is the introduction section that led to this literature review:
[[INTRODUCTION]]
Arson, the deliberate act of setting fire to property or vegetation, has long been a concern for law enforcement and fire prevention agencies. The economic and human costs associated with arson incidents are significant, not to mention the environmental impact of releasing harmful chemicals and greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. Meanwhile, air pollution in urban areas like Dallas continues to be a pressing public health issue, with implications for respiratory health and overall well-being. While these two issues may appear unrelated at first glance, the possibility of a connection between them has sparked scholarly interest and speculation.
The combustion of materials during arson incidents releases a range of pollutants into the air, including carbon monoxide, particulate matter, and volatile organic compounds. These emissions contribute to the overall burden of air pollution, which can have far-reaching effects on public health and the environment. The link between air pollution and various health outcomes has been extensively documented, but the potential intersection with criminal behavior has received less attention until now.
Our study seeks to shed light on the relationship between air pollution in Dallas and incidences of arson across the United States. By examining data from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services, we aim to uncover any patterns or associations that may exist between these seemingly distinct phenomena. While the idea of a connection between air quality and arson may seem far-fetched, our preliminary analysis has unearthed some provocative findings that warrant further investigation.
This paper presents the results of our comprehensive analysis, revealing a surprising correlation between air pollution levels in Dallas and the incidence of arson nationwide. The implications of this unexpected relationship extend beyond the scope of traditional criminology and environmental science, marking a potential convergence of disciplines that may inspire a new wave of interdisciplinary inquiry.
Despite the provocative nature of our findings, it is important to approach this topic with cautious skepticism and a critical eye. Correlation does not imply causation, and there may be confounding variables that have yet to be fully accounted for in our analysis. Nonetheless, the tantalizing prospect of a connection between air pollution and arson beckons further exploration, igniting a fire of curiosity within the research community.
-------
Your response should start like this:
[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]
ChatGPT:
[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]
In "The Impact of Air Pollution on Criminal Behavior," Smith and Doe (2015) present a comprehensive analysis of the potential relationship between air pollution levels and criminal activities. The authors find a statistically significant association between exposure to air pollution and certain types of criminal behavior, shedding light on the potential influence of environmental factors on deviant conduct. Similarly, Jones et al. (2017) discuss the implications of air pollution on public health and well-being, emphasizing the need for further research into the broader societal impacts of poor air quality.
Moving on to more niche literature, "Arson: Understanding Motivations and Techniques" by Fire Investigator (2010) offers a detailed exploration of the psychology and methodology behind arson incidents. The book provides insights into the motivations driving individuals to commit arson, as well as the environmental repercussions of deliberate fire-setting. Meanwhile, "Smoke Signals: The Cultural History of Fire" by Flames and Embers (2013) delves into the symbolic and cultural significance of fire throughout human history, offering a broader context in which to understand the relationship between fire-related activities and environmental influences.
In the realm of speculative fiction, "Burning Desire: A Thrilling Arson Mystery" by Blaze Turner (2018) weaves a tale of intrigue and suspicion in a small town plagued by a series of mysterious fires. While the narrative may be fictional, the themes explored within the novel prompt contemplation of the potential interplay between environmental factors and criminal behavior. Similarly, "Smoke and Mirrors: A Psychological Thriller" by Spark Johnson (2016) delves into the complexities of human behavior and the ways in which external stimuli can shape individuals' actions, albeit in a fictional context.
On a more contemporary note, recent social media posts have captured public attention with discussions about the potential link between air pollution and criminal acts. A tweet from @CleanAirAdvocate speculated on the possibility of air pollution exacerbating feelings of frustration and hostility, leading to an increase in arson incidents. While anecdotal in nature, such observations reflect a growing awareness of the potential interconnections between environmental quality and criminal behavior, igniting conversations that transcend traditional disciplinary boundaries.
In summary, a diverse array of literature and discourse touch upon the intersection of air pollution and arson, offering a multifaceted perspective on the potential relationships between environmental factors and criminal activities. While some sources provide empirical evidence and scholarly analysis, others approach the topic with a more creative and speculative lens, underscoring the breadth of interest in this intriguing confluence. The following section will expound upon the implications of these findings and pave the way for our own empirical investigation into the link between air pollution in Dallas and incidences of arson across the United States.
Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You draft the methodology section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.
Please make up the methodology section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Air pollution in Dallas and Arson in United States. Make it seem dry like academic research paper, but with lots of subtle hidden offhand remarks, jokes, goofy observations, and puns. Stay serious and dry most of the time, but then occasionally let your wit shine through.
Your research team collected data from all across the internet, but mostly just used information from Environmental Protection Agency and FBI Criminal Justice Information Services . You used data from 1985 to 2022
Make up the research methods you don't know. Make them a bit goofy and convoluted.
Here is the title, abstract, and introduction of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
Up in Smoke: Investigating the Link Between Air Pollution in Dallas and Arson in the United States
[[ABSTRACT]]
The aim of this study was to elucidate the potential relationship between air pollution levels in Dallas and incidences of arson across the United States. Leveraging data from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services, our research team conducted an extensive analysis spanning from 1985 to 2022. Employing rigorous statistical methods, a striking correlation coefficient of 0.7797117 and a p-value less than 0.01 were observed, hinting at an unexpected connection between these seemingly disparate phenomena. Our findings showcase the need for further investigation into the potential influences of environmental factors on criminal behavior, igniting new avenues of research in the field. While the specific mechanisms underlying this association remain enshrouded in smoke, our study marks a significant step toward understanding the combustible interplay between air quality and arson.
[[INTRODUCTION]]
Arson, the deliberate act of setting fire to property or vegetation, has long been a concern for law enforcement and fire prevention agencies. The economic and human costs associated with arson incidents are significant, not to mention the environmental impact of releasing harmful chemicals and greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. Meanwhile, air pollution in urban areas like Dallas continues to be a pressing public health issue, with implications for respiratory health and overall well-being. While these two issues may appear unrelated at first glance, the possibility of a connection between them has sparked scholarly interest and speculation.
The combustion of materials during arson incidents releases a range of pollutants into the air, including carbon monoxide, particulate matter, and volatile organic compounds. These emissions contribute to the overall burden of air pollution, which can have far-reaching effects on public health and the environment. The link between air pollution and various health outcomes has been extensively documented, but the potential intersection with criminal behavior has received less attention until now.
Our study seeks to shed light on the relationship between air pollution in Dallas and incidences of arson across the United States. By examining data from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services, we aim to uncover any patterns or associations that may exist between these seemingly distinct phenomena. While the idea of a connection between air quality and arson may seem far-fetched, our preliminary analysis has unearthed some provocative findings that warrant further investigation.
This paper presents the results of our comprehensive analysis, revealing a surprising correlation between air pollution levels in Dallas and the incidence of arson nationwide. The implications of this unexpected relationship extend beyond the scope of traditional criminology and environmental science, marking a potential convergence of disciplines that may inspire a new wave of interdisciplinary inquiry.
Despite the provocative nature of our findings, it is important to approach this topic with cautious skepticism and a critical eye. Correlation does not imply causation, and there may be confounding variables that have yet to be fully accounted for in our analysis. Nonetheless, the tantalizing prospect of a connection between air pollution and arson beckons further exploration, igniting a fire of curiosity within the research community.
-------
Your response should start like this:
[[METHODOLOGY]]
ChatGPT:
[[METHODOLOGY]]
To investigate the potential association between air pollution in Dallas and incidents of arson in the United States, our research team employed a multi-faceted methodological approach. The primary data sources for this study were the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services, which provided comprehensive data on air quality and arson incidents from 1985 to 2022. The use of these extensive datasets allowed for a thorough examination of the temporal and geographical trends in air pollution and arson, facilitating the identification of potential patterns and correlations.
The first step in our analysis involved the compilation and cleaning of the raw data. Given the diverse nature of the information collected from multiple sources, meticulous attention was directed toward standardizing the variables and ensuring the accuracy and completeness of the dataset. This process, akin to sifting through the ashes for valuable clues, enabled the creation of a unified dataset that served as the foundation for subsequent analyses.
Next, to measure air pollution levels, we utilized air quality indices and pollutant concentration data obtained from the EPA. These indices, encompassing pollutants such as carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, particulate matter, and sulfur dioxide, provided a comprehensive overview of air quality in the Dallas area over the study period. The use of these indices allowed for a nuanced examination of the fluctuations in air pollution levels, providing insight into the potential impact on arson incidents.
Concurrently, information on arson incidents across the United States was derived from the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services. The data encompassed reported cases of intentional fire-setting, encompassing various property types and geographic locations. This comprehensive dataset, characterized by the fervor of investigative efforts, enabled the identification of trends and patterns in arson occurrences, facilitating comparisons with air pollution levels in Dallas.
Statistical analyses were then conducted to elucidate potential associations between air pollution in Dallas and the incidence of arson nationwide. A series of regression models, resembling the meticulous assembly of puzzle pieces, were employed to examine the relationship between air pollution levels and arson incidents, while controlling for relevant confounding variables. The investigation of temporal trends and spatial patterns, akin to navigating through a dense fog, allowed for the identification of potential correlations and their robustness across different time periods and geographical regions.
Furthermore, supplementary analyses were undertaken to explore potential mediating and moderating factors that may influence the observed relationship. These analyses, akin to unraveling interconnected webs of causality, sought to untangle the complex interplay between environmental, socio-economic, and demographic factors in shaping the relationship between air pollution and arson.
The research team also conducted sensitivity analyses to evaluate the robustness of the findings and to assess the potential impact of outliers or data anomalies. These analyses, complementing the meticulous examination of a crime scene, provided a comprehensive assessment of the stability of the observed associations and their susceptibility to variations in the dataset.
Additionally, spatial analyses were conducted to investigate potential localized effects of air pollution on arson incidents, accounting for the geographic distribution of both environmental and socio-economic factors. This spatial examination, akin to navigating through a labyrinth of potential influences, offered insights into the potential regional variations in the relationship between air pollution and arson, thus capturing the heterogeneous nature of this association across different locales.
Lastly, the findings were subjected to rigorous peer review and validation, resembling the scrutiny of evidence in a courtroom, to ensure the robustness and integrity of the results. The utilization of external expertise and critical feedback further strengthened the validity and reliability of the observed associations, while fostering scholarly discourse and collaboration in the pursuit of knowledge.
In summary, the methodology employed in this study encompassed a comprehensive and meticulous approach to examining the potential association between air pollution in Dallas and incidents of arson across the United States. The integration of various analytical techniques, akin to the convergence of investigative methods in solving a complex case, allowed for a nuanced exploration of this enigmatic relationship, shaping new vistas of inquiry in the domains of criminology and environmental science.
Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You draft the results section of an academic research paper. You speak in the past tense (you found...).
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.
Please make up the results section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Air pollution in Dallas and Arson in United States. Make it seem dry like academic research paper, but with lots of subtle hidden offhand remarks, jokes, goofy observations, and puns. Stay serious and dry most of the time, but then occasionally let your wit shine through.
Your research team collected data from all across the internet, but mostly just used information from Environmental Protection Agency and FBI Criminal Justice Information Services .
For the time period 1985 to 2022, you found a correlation 0.7797117, r-squared of 0.6079503, and p < 0.01.
One figure will be included. The figure (Fig. 1) is a scatterplot showing the strong correlation between the two variables. You don't need to specify where; I will add the figure.
Here is the title and abstract of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
Up in Smoke: Investigating the Link Between Air Pollution in Dallas and Arson in the United States
[[ABSTRACT]]
The aim of this study was to elucidate the potential relationship between air pollution levels in Dallas and incidences of arson across the United States. Leveraging data from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services, our research team conducted an extensive analysis spanning from 1985 to 2022. Employing rigorous statistical methods, a striking correlation coefficient of 0.7797117 and a p-value less than 0.01 were observed, hinting at an unexpected connection between these seemingly disparate phenomena. Our findings showcase the need for further investigation into the potential influences of environmental factors on criminal behavior, igniting new avenues of research in the field. While the specific mechanisms underlying this association remain enshrouded in smoke, our study marks a significant step toward understanding the combustible interplay between air quality and arson.
-------
And here is the methodology section that led to this result:
[[METHODOLOGY]]
Arson, the deliberate act of setting fire to property or vegetation, has long been a concern for law enforcement and fire prevention agencies. The economic and human costs associated with arson incidents are significant, not to mention the environmental impact of releasing harmful chemicals and greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. Meanwhile, air pollution in urban areas like Dallas continues to be a pressing public health issue, with implications for respiratory health and overall well-being. While these two issues may appear unrelated at first glance, the possibility of a connection between them has sparked scholarly interest and speculation.
The combustion of materials during arson incidents releases a range of pollutants into the air, including carbon monoxide, particulate matter, and volatile organic compounds. These emissions contribute to the overall burden of air pollution, which can have far-reaching effects on public health and the environment. The link between air pollution and various health outcomes has been extensively documented, but the potential intersection with criminal behavior has received less attention until now.
Our study seeks to shed light on the relationship between air pollution in Dallas and incidences of arson across the United States. By examining data from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services, we aim to uncover any patterns or associations that may exist between these seemingly distinct phenomena. While the idea of a connection between air quality and arson may seem far-fetched, our preliminary analysis has unearthed some provocative findings that warrant further investigation.
This paper presents the results of our comprehensive analysis, revealing a surprising correlation between air pollution levels in Dallas and the incidence of arson nationwide. The implications of this unexpected relationship extend beyond the scope of traditional criminology and environmental science, marking a potential convergence of disciplines that may inspire a new wave of interdisciplinary inquiry.
Despite the provocative nature of our findings, it is important to approach this topic with cautious skepticism and a critical eye. Correlation does not imply causation, and there may be confounding variables that have yet to be fully accounted for in our analysis. Nonetheless, the tantalizing prospect of a connection between air pollution and arson beckons further exploration, igniting a fire of curiosity within the research community.
-------
Your response should start like this:
[[RESULTS]]
ChatGPT:
[[RESULTS]]
The examination of the relationship between air pollution in Dallas and incidences of arson across the United States produced some intriguing results. Our analysis revealed a substantial correlation coefficient of 0.7797117, suggesting a moderately strong association between these variables. Furthermore, the r-squared value of 0.6079503 indicated that approximately 60.8% of the variability in arson incidences could be explained by fluctuations in air pollution levels. The p-value of less than 0.01 provided compelling evidence against the null hypothesis, affirming the statistical significance of the observed correlation.
Figure 1 illustrates the scatterplot depicting the robust correlation between air pollution levels in Dallas and the frequency of arson incidents nationwide. The data points form a distinct pattern, resembling a trail of breadcrumbs leading to a smoky conclusion. This visual representation solidifies the remarkable connection uncovered by our analysis, leaving little room for doubt regarding the unexpected relationship between these seemingly incongruous phenomena.
It is worth noting that while our findings provide compelling evidence of a link between air pollution and arson, they do not elucidate the specific mechanisms driving this connection. The intricate interplay of environmental factors, social dynamics, and individual motivations remains cloaked in ambiguity, much like a hazy plume of smoke drifting through the air. Further research is warranted to unravel the complexities of this association and discern the underlying causal pathways, as our study merely scratches the surface of this enigmatic phenomenon.
These results offer a tantalizing glimpse into the combustible interplay between air quality and arson, igniting a spark of curiosity within the research community and fueling the need for continued investigation. The implications of this unexpected relationship extend far beyond the confines of traditional disciplinary boundaries, prompting a confluence of criminological and environmental inquiries. While the specific mechanisms underlying this association remain veiled in smoke, our study represents a significant stride toward comprehending the entwined influences of air pollution and arson, sparking new avenues of interdisciplinary research in the process.
Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You draft the discussion section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.
Please make up the discussion section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Air pollution in Dallas and Arson in United States. Make it seem dry like academic research paper, but with lots of subtle hidden offhand remarks, jokes, goofy observations, and puns. Stay serious and dry most of the time, but then occasionally let your wit shine through.
Limit your response to 500 tokens.
Here are the title, abstract, literature review, and results sections. Please harken back to 1-2 of the goofy items in the literature review, but pretend to take them completely seriously. Discuss how your results supported the prior research.
Do not write a conclusion. I will add a conclusion after this.
[[TITLE]]
Up in Smoke: Investigating the Link Between Air Pollution in Dallas and Arson in the United States
[[ABSTRACT]]
The aim of this study was to elucidate the potential relationship between air pollution levels in Dallas and incidences of arson across the United States. Leveraging data from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services, our research team conducted an extensive analysis spanning from 1985 to 2022. Employing rigorous statistical methods, a striking correlation coefficient of 0.7797117 and a p-value less than 0.01 were observed, hinting at an unexpected connection between these seemingly disparate phenomena. Our findings showcase the need for further investigation into the potential influences of environmental factors on criminal behavior, igniting new avenues of research in the field. While the specific mechanisms underlying this association remain enshrouded in smoke, our study marks a significant step toward understanding the combustible interplay between air quality and arson.
[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]
In "The Impact of Air Pollution on Criminal Behavior," Smith and Doe (2015) present a comprehensive analysis of the potential relationship between air pollution levels and criminal activities. The authors find a statistically significant association between exposure to air pollution and certain types of criminal behavior, shedding light on the potential influence of environmental factors on deviant conduct. Similarly, Jones et al. (2017) discuss the implications of air pollution on public health and well-being, emphasizing the need for further research into the broader societal impacts of poor air quality.
Moving on to more niche literature, "Arson: Understanding Motivations and Techniques" by Fire Investigator (2010) offers a detailed exploration of the psychology and methodology behind arson incidents. The book provides insights into the motivations driving individuals to commit arson, as well as the environmental repercussions of deliberate fire-setting. Meanwhile, "Smoke Signals: The Cultural History of Fire" by Flames and Embers (2013) delves into the symbolic and cultural significance of fire throughout human history, offering a broader context in which to understand the relationship between fire-related activities and environmental influences.
In the realm of speculative fiction, "Burning Desire: A Thrilling Arson Mystery" by Blaze Turner (2018) weaves a tale of intrigue and suspicion in a small town plagued by a series of mysterious fires. While the narrative may be fictional, the themes explored within the novel prompt contemplation of the potential interplay between environmental factors and criminal behavior. Similarly, "Smoke and Mirrors: A Psychological Thriller" by Spark Johnson (2016) delves into the complexities of human behavior and the ways in which external stimuli can shape individuals' actions, albeit in a fictional context.
On a more contemporary note, recent social media posts have captured public attention with discussions about the potential link between air pollution and criminal acts. A tweet from @CleanAirAdvocate speculated on the possibility of air pollution exacerbating feelings of frustration and hostility, leading to an increase in arson incidents. While anecdotal in nature, such observations reflect a growing awareness of the potential interconnections between environmental quality and criminal behavior, igniting conversations that transcend traditional disciplinary boundaries.
In summary, a diverse array of literature and discourse touch upon the intersection of air pollution and arson, offering a multifaceted perspective on the potential relationships between environmental factors and criminal activities. While some sources provide empirical evidence and scholarly analysis, others approach the topic with a more creative and speculative lens, underscoring the breadth of interest in this intriguing confluence. The following section will expound upon the implications of these findings and pave the way for our own empirical investigation into the link between air pollution in Dallas and incidences of arson across the United States.
[[RESULTS]]
The examination of the relationship between air pollution in Dallas and incidences of arson across the United States produced some intriguing results. Our analysis revealed a substantial correlation coefficient of 0.7797117, suggesting a moderately strong association between these variables. Furthermore, the r-squared value of 0.6079503 indicated that approximately 60.8% of the variability in arson incidences could be explained by fluctuations in air pollution levels. The p-value of less than 0.01 provided compelling evidence against the null hypothesis, affirming the statistical significance of the observed correlation.
Figure 1 illustrates the scatterplot depicting the robust correlation between air pollution levels in Dallas and the frequency of arson incidents nationwide. The data points form a distinct pattern, resembling a trail of breadcrumbs leading to a smoky conclusion. This visual representation solidifies the remarkable connection uncovered by our analysis, leaving little room for doubt regarding the unexpected relationship between these seemingly incongruous phenomena.
It is worth noting that while our findings provide compelling evidence of a link between air pollution and arson, they do not elucidate the specific mechanisms driving this connection. The intricate interplay of environmental factors, social dynamics, and individual motivations remains cloaked in ambiguity, much like a hazy plume of smoke drifting through the air. Further research is warranted to unravel the complexities of this association and discern the underlying causal pathways, as our study merely scratches the surface of this enigmatic phenomenon.
These results offer a tantalizing glimpse into the combustible interplay between air quality and arson, igniting a spark of curiosity within the research community and fueling the need for continued investigation. The implications of this unexpected relationship extend far beyond the confines of traditional disciplinary boundaries, prompting a confluence of criminological and environmental inquiries. While the specific mechanisms underlying this association remain veiled in smoke, our study represents a significant stride toward comprehending the entwined influences of air pollution and arson, sparking new avenues of interdisciplinary research in the process.
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Your response should start like this:
[[DISCUSSION]]
ChatGPT:
[[DISCUSSION]]
The results of our study offer compelling support for the potential relationship between air pollution in Dallas and incidences of arson across the United States, aligning with prior research that hinted at the influence of environmental factors on criminal behavior. The striking correlation coefficient and statistical significance of our findings underscore the need to delve deeper into the complex interplay between air quality and arson. While our investigation has merely scratched the surface of this enigmatic phenomenon, the observations presented in this study revive the age-old adage that "where there's smoke, there's fire."
Harking back to the intriguing literature review, the work of Smith and Doe (2015) and Jones et al. (2017) provided a solid backdrop for our findings. Their empirical analyses and emphasis on the influence of environmental factors on deviant conduct laid the groundwork for our own exploration, echoing the sentiment that the air we breathe may indeed kindle more than respiratory complications. Furthermore, the niche literature delving into the motivations and cultural significance of fire offered thought-provoking perspectives that, while initially shrouded in the smoke of academic irrelevance, proved to be unexpectedly pertinent to our investigation.
The robust correlation coefficient and r-squared value obtained in our analysis echo through the hallowed halls of empirical evidence, dispelling doubts and fanning the flames of curiosity within the research community. The visual representation of our findings, akin to a trail of breadcrumbs leading to a smoky conclusion, offers a compelling glimpse into the combustible interplay between air quality and arson. While we acknowledge the limitations of our study in elucidating the specific mechanisms driving this connection, the statistical significance of our findings cannot be extinguished.
In conclusion, our study rekindles the importance of investigating the unexpected relationships that transcend conventional disciplinary boundaries. The distinctive connection uncovered by our analysis serves as a beacon of intrigue, igniting conversations and fueling the need for continued investigation. As we look forward to peeling back the layers of this enigmatic phenomenon, it becomes evident that the influence of air pollution on criminal behavior is more than just a puff of hot air, but a topic worthy of continued exploration.
Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You draft the discussion section of goofy academic research papers that sounds like it belongs based on the title and abstract provided.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.
Please make up a short conclusion of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Air pollution in Dallas and Arson in United States. Make it seem dry like academic research paper, but with lots of subtle hidden offhand remarks, jokes, goofy observations, and puns. Stay serious and dry most of the time, but then occasionally let your wit shine through.
Limit your response to 300 tokens. At the very end, assert that no more research is needed in this area.
Here are the title, abstract, introduction, and results sections.
[[TITLE]]
Up in Smoke: Investigating the Link Between Air Pollution in Dallas and Arson in the United States
[[ABSTRACT]]
The aim of this study was to elucidate the potential relationship between air pollution levels in Dallas and incidences of arson across the United States. Leveraging data from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services, our research team conducted an extensive analysis spanning from 1985 to 2022. Employing rigorous statistical methods, a striking correlation coefficient of 0.7797117 and a p-value less than 0.01 were observed, hinting at an unexpected connection between these seemingly disparate phenomena. Our findings showcase the need for further investigation into the potential influences of environmental factors on criminal behavior, igniting new avenues of research in the field. While the specific mechanisms underlying this association remain enshrouded in smoke, our study marks a significant step toward understanding the combustible interplay between air quality and arson.
[[INTRDUCTION]]
Arson, the deliberate act of setting fire to property or vegetation, has long been a concern for law enforcement and fire prevention agencies. The economic and human costs associated with arson incidents are significant, not to mention the environmental impact of releasing harmful chemicals and greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. Meanwhile, air pollution in urban areas like Dallas continues to be a pressing public health issue, with implications for respiratory health and overall well-being. While these two issues may appear unrelated at first glance, the possibility of a connection between them has sparked scholarly interest and speculation.
The combustion of materials during arson incidents releases a range of pollutants into the air, including carbon monoxide, particulate matter, and volatile organic compounds. These emissions contribute to the overall burden of air pollution, which can have far-reaching effects on public health and the environment. The link between air pollution and various health outcomes has been extensively documented, but the potential intersection with criminal behavior has received less attention until now.
Our study seeks to shed light on the relationship between air pollution in Dallas and incidences of arson across the United States. By examining data from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services, we aim to uncover any patterns or associations that may exist between these seemingly distinct phenomena. While the idea of a connection between air quality and arson may seem far-fetched, our preliminary analysis has unearthed some provocative findings that warrant further investigation.
This paper presents the results of our comprehensive analysis, revealing a surprising correlation between air pollution levels in Dallas and the incidence of arson nationwide. The implications of this unexpected relationship extend beyond the scope of traditional criminology and environmental science, marking a potential convergence of disciplines that may inspire a new wave of interdisciplinary inquiry.
Despite the provocative nature of our findings, it is important to approach this topic with cautious skepticism and a critical eye. Correlation does not imply causation, and there may be confounding variables that have yet to be fully accounted for in our analysis. Nonetheless, the tantalizing prospect of a connection between air pollution and arson beckons further exploration, igniting a fire of curiosity within the research community.
[[RESULTS]]
The examination of the relationship between air pollution in Dallas and incidences of arson across the United States produced some intriguing results. Our analysis revealed a substantial correlation coefficient of 0.7797117, suggesting a moderately strong association between these variables. Furthermore, the r-squared value of 0.6079503 indicated that approximately 60.8% of the variability in arson incidences could be explained by fluctuations in air pollution levels. The p-value of less than 0.01 provided compelling evidence against the null hypothesis, affirming the statistical significance of the observed correlation.
Figure 1 illustrates the scatterplot depicting the robust correlation between air pollution levels in Dallas and the frequency of arson incidents nationwide. The data points form a distinct pattern, resembling a trail of breadcrumbs leading to a smoky conclusion. This visual representation solidifies the remarkable connection uncovered by our analysis, leaving little room for doubt regarding the unexpected relationship between these seemingly incongruous phenomena.
It is worth noting that while our findings provide compelling evidence of a link between air pollution and arson, they do not elucidate the specific mechanisms driving this connection. The intricate interplay of environmental factors, social dynamics, and individual motivations remains cloaked in ambiguity, much like a hazy plume of smoke drifting through the air. Further research is warranted to unravel the complexities of this association and discern the underlying causal pathways, as our study merely scratches the surface of this enigmatic phenomenon.
These results offer a tantalizing glimpse into the combustible interplay between air quality and arson, igniting a spark of curiosity within the research community and fueling the need for continued investigation. The implications of this unexpected relationship extend far beyond the confines of traditional disciplinary boundaries, prompting a confluence of criminological and environmental inquiries. While the specific mechanisms underlying this association remain veiled in smoke, our study represents a significant stride toward comprehending the entwined influences of air pollution and arson, sparking new avenues of interdisciplinary research in the process.
-------
Your response should start like this:
[[CONCLUSION]]
ChatGPT:
[[CONCLUSION]]
In conclusion, our study has uncovered a remarkably strong correlation between air pollution levels in Dallas and the incidence of arson across the United States. This surprising finding has ignited a fervor of curiosity within the research community, much like the initial spark that sets ablaze a fire. The statistical evidence, represented by a correlation coefficient of 0.7797117 and a p-value less than 0.01, leaves little room for doubt regarding the unexpected connection between these seemingly disparate phenomena.
The robust correlation, resembling a trail of breadcrumbs, hints at a potential smoke-and-mirrors game between environmental factors and criminal behavior. While our findings do not fully illuminate the specific mechanisms driving this association, they certainly fan the flames of inquiry, metaphorically speaking. Our study serves as a reminder that the interplay between air quality and arson is a complex tapestry, woven with threads of environmental impact, societal factors, and individual motivations.
As the smoke clears around this esoteric relationship, it is evident that further research is warranted to unveil the intricate web of influences at play. However, one might argue that delving deeper into this subject could be akin to chasing wildfire - captivating but ultimately fruitless. Therefore, we assert that no more research is needed in this area.
Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide fictional names of academic journals. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide the name of a funny but plausible sounding research, scientific, or academic journal that would publish a paper entited Up in Smoke: Investigating the Link Between Air Pollution in Dallas and Arson in the United States. Respond only with the name of a fictional academic journal.
ChatGPT:
The Journal of Environmental Criminology and Atmospheric Chemistry
Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide fictional names of nonprofit research organizations and associations. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide the name of a funny but plausible sounding nonprofit, academic, or scientific association or organization that would sponsor research that resulted in a paper entited Up in Smoke: Investigating the Link Between Air Pollution in Dallas and Arson in the United States. Respond only with the name of a fictional organization.
ChatGPT:
The Society for Environmental Forensics and Crime Analysis
Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide potential search keywords separated by commas. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide potential search keywords for a paper titled Up in Smoke: Investigating the Link Between Air Pollution in Dallas and Arson in the United States with an abstract of The aim of this study was to elucidate the potential relationship between air pollution levels in Dallas and incidences of arson across the United States. Leveraging data from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services, our research team conducted an extensive analysis spanning from 1985 to 2022. Employing rigorous statistical methods, a striking correlation coefficient of 0.7797117 and a p-value less than 0.01 were observed, hinting at an unexpected connection between these seemingly disparate phenomena. Our findings showcase the need for further investigation into the potential influences of environmental factors on criminal behavior, igniting new avenues of research in the field. While the specific mechanisms underlying this association remain enshrouded in smoke, our study marks a significant step toward understanding the combustible interplay between air quality and arson.
ChatGPT:
air pollution, arson, Dallas, United States, Environmental Protection Agency, EPA data, FBI Criminal Justice Information Services, statistical analysis, correlation coefficient, criminal behavior, environmental factors
*There is a bunch of Python happening behind the scenes to turn this prompt sequence into a PDF.
Discover a new correlation
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Data details
Air pollution in DallasDetailed data title: Percentage of days 'unhealthy' or worse air quality in Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
Source: Environmental Protection Agency
See what else correlates with Air pollution in Dallas
Arson in United States
Detailed data title: The arson rate per 100,000 residents in United States
Source: FBI Criminal Justice Information Services
See what else correlates with Arson in United States
Correlation is a measure of how much the variables move together. If it is 0.99, when one goes up the other goes up. If it is 0.02, the connection is very weak or non-existent. If it is -0.99, then when one goes up the other goes down. If it is 1.00, you probably messed up your correlation function.
r2 = 0.6079503 (Coefficient of determination)
This means 60.8% of the change in the one variable (i.e., Arson in United States) is predictable based on the change in the other (i.e., Air pollution in Dallas) over the 38 years from 1985 through 2022.
p < 0.01, which is statistically significant(Null hypothesis significance test)
The p-value is 8.0E-9. 0.0000000079778164180618200000
The p-value is a measure of how probable it is that we would randomly find a result this extreme. More specifically the p-value is a measure of how probable it is that we would randomly find a result this extreme if we had only tested one pair of variables one time.
But I am a p-villain. I absolutely did not test only one pair of variables one time. I correlated hundreds of millions of pairs of variables. I threw boatloads of data into an industrial-sized blender to find this correlation.
Who is going to stop me? p-value reporting doesn't require me to report how many calculations I had to go through in order to find a low p-value!
On average, you will find a correaltion as strong as 0.78 in 8.0E-7% of random cases. Said differently, if you correlated 125,347,582 random variables You don't actually need 125 million variables to find a correlation like this one. I don't have that many variables in my database. You can also correlate variables that are not independent. I do this a lot.
p-value calculations are useful for understanding the probability of a result happening by chance. They are most useful when used to highlight the risk of a fluke outcome. For example, if you calculate a p-value of 0.30, the risk that the result is a fluke is high. It is good to know that! But there are lots of ways to get a p-value of less than 0.01, as evidenced by this project.
In this particular case, the values are so extreme as to be meaningless. That's why no one reports p-values with specificity after they drop below 0.01.
Just to be clear: I'm being completely transparent about the calculations. There is no math trickery. This is just how statistics shakes out when you calculate hundreds of millions of random correlations.
with the same 37 degrees of freedom, Degrees of freedom is a measure of how many free components we are testing. In this case it is 37 because we have two variables measured over a period of 38 years. It's just the number of years minus ( the number of variables minus one ), which in this case simplifies to the number of years minus one.
you would randomly expect to find a correlation as strong as this one.
[ 0.61, 0.88 ] 95% correlation confidence interval (using the Fisher z-transformation)
The confidence interval is an estimate the range of the value of the correlation coefficient, using the correlation itself as an input. The values are meant to be the low and high end of the correlation coefficient with 95% confidence.
This one is a bit more complciated than the other calculations, but I include it because many people have been pushing for confidence intervals instead of p-value calculations (for example: NEJM. However, if you are dredging data, you can reliably find yourself in the 5%. That's my goal!
All values for the years included above: If I were being very sneaky, I could trim years from the beginning or end of the datasets to increase the correlation on some pairs of variables. I don't do that because there are already plenty of correlations in my database without monkeying with the years.
Still, sometimes one of the variables has more years of data available than the other. This page only shows the overlapping years. To see all the years, click on "See what else correlates with..." link above.
| 1985 | 1986 | 1987 | 1988 | 1989 | 1990 | 1991 | 1992 | 1993 | 1994 | 1995 | 1996 | 1997 | 1998 | 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | |
| Air pollution in Dallas (Bad air quality days) | 15.8904 | 11.5068 | 10.411 | 13.6612 | 7.12329 | 7.12329 | 6.30137 | 4.91803 | 4.93151 | 12.0548 | 13.1507 | 7.10383 | 9.0411 | 10.9589 | 10.137 | 9.56284 | 6.57534 | 9.58904 | 8.21918 | 6.28415 | 10.9589 | 7.67123 | 3.0137 | 2.18579 | 3.0137 | 1.36986 | 5.47945 | 3.55191 | 1.36986 | 0.821918 | 1.36986 | 0.273224 | 0 | 2.46575 | 0.273973 | 0.819672 | 1.09589 | 0.821918 |
| Arson in United States (Arson rate) | 43.6 | 46.3 | 42.5 | 41 | 41.4 | 41.7 | 41 | 40.8 | 37.3 | 39.6 | 36.7 | 34.6 | 32.6 | 29.7 | 28.8 | 24.7 | 27.7 | 26.8 | 25 | 23.6 | 23.1 | 24.4 | 22.6 | 21.6 | 19.5 | 18.1 | 17.5 | 17.6 | 14.9 | 14.5 | 13.7 | 14.1 | 13.2 | 12 | 11 | 13.9 | 8.9 | 11.6 |
Why this works
- Data dredging: I have 25,153 variables in my database. I compare all these variables against each other to find ones that randomly match up. That's 632,673,409 correlation calculations! This is called “data dredging.” Instead of starting with a hypothesis and testing it, I instead abused the data to see what correlations shake out. It’s a dangerous way to go about analysis, because any sufficiently large dataset will yield strong correlations completely at random.
- Lack of causal connection: There is probably
Because these pages are automatically generated, it's possible that the two variables you are viewing are in fact causually related. I take steps to prevent the obvious ones from showing on the site (I don't let data about the weather in one city correlate with the weather in a neighboring city, for example), but sometimes they still pop up. If they are related, cool! You found a loophole.
no direct connection between these variables, despite what the AI says above. This is exacerbated by the fact that I used "Years" as the base variable. Lots of things happen in a year that are not related to each other! Most studies would use something like "one person" in stead of "one year" to be the "thing" studied. - Observations not independent: For many variables, sequential years are not independent of each other. If a population of people is continuously doing something every day, there is no reason to think they would suddenly change how they are doing that thing on January 1. A simple
Personally I don't find any p-value calculation to be 'simple,' but you know what I mean.
p-value calculation does not take this into account, so mathematically it appears less probable than it really is.
Try it yourself
You can calculate the values on this page on your own! Try running the Python code to see the calculation results. Step 1: Download and install Python on your computer.Step 2: Open a plaintext editor like Notepad and paste the code below into it.
Step 3: Save the file as "calculate_correlation.py" in a place you will remember, like your desktop. Copy the file location to your clipboard. On Windows, you can right-click the file and click "Properties," and then copy what comes after "Location:" As an example, on my computer the location is "C:\Users\tyler\Desktop"
Step 4: Open a command line window. For example, by pressing start and typing "cmd" and them pressing enter.
Step 5: Install the required modules by typing "pip install numpy", then pressing enter, then typing "pip install scipy", then pressing enter.
Step 6: Navigate to the location where you saved the Python file by using the "cd" command. For example, I would type "cd C:\Users\tyler\Desktop" and push enter.
Step 7: Run the Python script by typing "python calculate_correlation.py"
If you run into any issues, I suggest asking ChatGPT to walk you through installing Python and running the code below on your system. Try this question:
"Walk me through installing Python on my computer to run a script that uses scipy and numpy. Go step-by-step and ask me to confirm before moving on. Start by asking me questions about my operating system so that you know how to proceed. Assume I want the simplest installation with the latest version of Python and that I do not currently have any of the necessary elements installed. Remember to only give me one step per response and confirm I have done it before proceeding."
# These modules make it easier to perform the calculation
import numpy as np
from scipy import stats
# We'll define a function that we can call to return the correlation calculations
def calculate_correlation(array1, array2):
# Calculate Pearson correlation coefficient and p-value
correlation, p_value = stats.pearsonr(array1, array2)
# Calculate R-squared as the square of the correlation coefficient
r_squared = correlation**2
return correlation, r_squared, p_value
# These are the arrays for the variables shown on this page, but you can modify them to be any two sets of numbers
array_1 = np.array([15.8904,11.5068,10.411,13.6612,7.12329,7.12329,6.30137,4.91803,4.93151,12.0548,13.1507,7.10383,9.0411,10.9589,10.137,9.56284,6.57534,9.58904,8.21918,6.28415,10.9589,7.67123,3.0137,2.18579,3.0137,1.36986,5.47945,3.55191,1.36986,0.821918,1.36986,0.273224,0,2.46575,0.273973,0.819672,1.09589,0.821918,])
array_2 = np.array([43.6,46.3,42.5,41,41.4,41.7,41,40.8,37.3,39.6,36.7,34.6,32.6,29.7,28.8,24.7,27.7,26.8,25,23.6,23.1,24.4,22.6,21.6,19.5,18.1,17.5,17.6,14.9,14.5,13.7,14.1,13.2,12,11,13.9,8.9,11.6,])
array_1_name = "Air pollution in Dallas"
array_2_name = "Arson in United States"
# Perform the calculation
print(f"Calculating the correlation between {array_1_name} and {array_2_name}...")
correlation, r_squared, p_value = calculate_correlation(array_1, array_2)
# Print the results
print("Correlation Coefficient:", correlation)
print("R-squared:", r_squared)
print("P-value:", p_value)Reuseable content
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For the record, I am just one person. Tyler Vigen, he/him/his. I do have degrees, but they should not go after my name unless you want to annoy my wife. If that is your goal, then go ahead and cite me as "Tyler Vigen, A.A. A.A.S. B.A. J.D." Otherwise it is just "Tyler Vigen."
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Download images for these variables:
- High resolution line chart
The image linked here is a Scalable Vector Graphic (SVG). It is the highest resolution that is possible to achieve. It scales up beyond the size of the observable universe without pixelating. You do not need to email me asking if I have a higher resolution image. I do not. The physical limitations of our universe prevent me from providing you with an image that is any higher resolution than this one.
If you insert it into a PowerPoint presentation (a tool well-known for managing things that are the scale of the universe), you can right-click > "Ungroup" or "Create Shape" and then edit the lines and text directly. You can also change the colors this way.
Alternatively you can use a tool like Inkscape. - High resolution line chart, optimized for mobile
- Alternative high resolution line chart
- Scatterplot
- Portable line chart (png)
- Portable line chart (png), optimized for mobile
- Line chart for only Air pollution in Dallas
- Line chart for only Arson in United States
- AI-generated correlation image
- The spurious research paper: Up in Smoke: Investigating the Link Between Air Pollution in Dallas and Arson in the United States
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Correlation ID: 2054 · Black Variable ID: 20509 · Red Variable ID: 20038
