Spurious correlation #3,448 · View random
A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is Air pollution in Boston and the second variable is Arson in United States. The chart goes from 1985 to 2022, and the two variables track closely in value over that time.

A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is Air pollution in Boston and the second variable is Arson in United States. The chart goes from 1985 to 2022, and the two variables track closely in value over that time.

Download png, svg

AI explanation

As the air quality in Boston improved, it meant there were fewer smoke particles available to add that extra pizzazz to the arson fires. With cleaner air, the arsonists just couldn't spark the same level of excitement they used to. So, while the flames of passion for arson may still flicker, without the smoky support, they simply couldn't ignite as many fiery shenanigans across the country.

^{Show image generation prompt} Model: dalle-3
Prompt: Generate an image of a serene Boston skyline illuminated by the soft glow of fireflies. The fireflies are flitting and dancing gracefully, casting a gentle light over the city. Meanwhile, a group of arsonists gazing in amazement at the mystical display, seem to be contemplating the beauty of the scene. The clear Boston sky is a symbolic representation of hope and progress, free from the usual smog. The overall image should have a soothing and enchanting quality, capturing this unexpected moment of grace amidst the city's usual chaos. The style should be cute with a heartwarming touch, evoking a sense of wonder and tranquility. The depiction should include only scenes, people, and objects, it should not include text or speech bubbles.

This image generation prompt was also generated by AI, using the following sequence:

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You select one of a few potential scene descriptors that seems to go along with the variables described. You respond only with the scene descriptions provided and say nothing else.
User prompt: Here are two variables: Air pollution in Boston and Arson in United States. Given these, which of the following image style descriptions seems most appropriate? Pick the one that seems to be related to one of the variables at hand. Please respond with only one of the following potential descriptions: Hyper-realistic Futuristic Magic realism Cutsy art illustration Data cyber art
ChatGPT: Cutsy art illustration

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You describe simple visual scenes that depict the two variables stated. You combine both variables into one scene.
User prompt: Please describe a visual scene that prominently depicts both Air pollution in Boston and Arson in United States, in the following situation: Because with cleaner air, fireflies became easier to spot, satisfying the need for arsonists to create their own light show, diverting them from destructive activities.. Keep the description simple.
ChatGPT: In a cleaner, clearer Boston sky, a group of fireflies flit and dance, their soft glow lighting up the night. Nearby, a group of arsonists watch in awe, their fascination with the mesmerizing display diverting their destructive inclinations. The air is filled with both the twinkling of fireflies and the absence of smog, a hopeful sign of progress.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You write and improve image generation prompts for DALLE-3. You maintain the same subjects, but enhance the visuals.
User prompt: Please respond with an image generation prompt that would be likely to create an interesting visual using DALLE-3, using the following style: [ Cutsy art illustration ] and depicting this scene: In a cleaner, clearer Boston sky, a group of fireflies flit and dance, their soft glow lighting up the night. Nearby, a group of arsonists watch in awe, their fascination with the mesmerizing display diverting their destructive inclinations. The air is filled with both the twinkling of fireflies and the absence of smog, a hopeful sign of progress. Keep the visual depiction simple. Do not include any words or speech bubbles.
ChatGPT: Generate an image of a serene Boston skyline illuminated by the soft glow of fireflies. The fireflies are flitting and dancing gracefully, casting a gentle light over the city. Meanwhile, a group of arsonists gazing in amazement at the mystical display, seem to be contemplating the beauty of the scene. The clear Boston sky is a symbolic representation of hope and progress, free from the usual smog. The overall image should have a soothing and enchanting quality, capturing this unexpected moment of grace amidst the city's usual chaos. The style should be cute with a heartwarming touch, evoking a sense of wonder and tranquility.

*Variations in the User Prompts from chart to chart are just the result of random number generation in Python. I wrote a few arrays of various styles and methods to ask questions to change up the results. Every time this site writes an explanation or generates an image, the script picks from each at random.

I sequence the requests into multiple prompts because I find GPT 3.5 to perform much better with short, well-managed contexts. Thus, I track the context directly in Python and only ask ChatGPT targeted questions.
^{Show prompt for explanation} Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106 (fine-tuned)
System prompt: You provide humorous responses in the form of plausible sounding explanations for correlations. You assume the correlation is causative for the purpose of the explanation even if it is ridiculous. You do not chat with the user, you only reply with the causal connection explanation and nothing else.
User prompt: Please make up a funny explanation for how a decrease in Air pollution in Boston caused Arson in United States to decrease. Make it feel plausible.

AI academic paper

(Because p < 0.01)

Up in Smoke: Unraveling the Fiery Relationship Between Air Pollution in Boston and Arson in the United States

The Journal of Environmental Criminology and Atmospheric Chemistry

Jan 2024

Reminder: This paper is AI-generated. Not real!

^{Show prompt used to generate this paper} Quick note: This sequence is long and repetitive. That's how the prompt engineering works for this one. I manage the output in Python to format it into this PDF.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You draft a literature review section of an academic research paper, that starts out dry for the first few sentences but then becomes hilarious and goofy.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up a literature review section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Air pollution in Boston and Arson in United States. You can't resist a good dad joke. Add a relevant dad joke related to the content every couple of sentences.

Speak in the present tense for this section (the authors find...), as is common in academic research paper literature reviews. Name the sources in a format similar to this: In "Book," the authors find lorem and ipsum.

Make up the lorem and ipsum part, but make it sound related to the topic at hand.

Start by naming serious-sounding studies by authors like Smith, Doe, and Jones - but then quickly devolve. Name some real non-fiction books that would be related to the topic. Then name some real fiction books that sound like they could be related. Then devolve ever further, and mention something completely ridiculous, like you conducted literature review by reading the backs of shampoo bottles.

Here is the title and abstract of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
Up in Smoke: Unraveling the Fiery Relationship Between Air Pollution in Boston and Arson in the United States

[[ABSTRACT]]
This study scrutinizes the subtle yet robust relationship between the air quality in Boston and the incidence of arson across the United States. With a wink and a nod to classic dad jokes, our research endeavors to shed light on the fiery connection through a comprehensive analysis of data from the Environmental Protection Agency and the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services.

By employing rigorous statistical analysis, we reveal a striking correlation coefficient of 0.8139923 and a p-value of less than 0.01, indicating a strong and significant association between air pollution levels in the historic city of Boston and the occurrence of arson incidents nationwide. Our findings kindle further interest in exploring the underlying mechanisms at play, sparking both curiosity and caution in interpreting these observational results.

In conclusion, our study ignites a newfound appreciation for the interconnectedness of environmental factors and criminal behavior, illuminating the need for integrated strategies to mitigate air pollution and fire-related risks. With a nod to the flames of knowledge, we offer a spark of insight into this incendiary relationship, fanning the flames of curiosity while ensuring we tread carefully with our interpretations.

-------

And here is the introduction section that led to this literature review:
[[INTRODUCTION]]
The connection between environmental factors and criminal behavior has often been as elusive as a well-camouflaged chameleon. However, as the saying goes, where there's smoke, there's fire. In this study, we explore the smoldering relationship between air pollution in the city of Boston and the occurrence of arson incidents across the United States, combining a burning curiosity with a methodical approach to data analysis.
As we dive into the data, we aim to spark interest in the dynamic interplay between atmospheric quality and criminal behavior. It's almost as if the data is trying to arson-ify our attention! The statistical insights we'll uncover are sure to set the academic world ablaze (figuratively, of course).
Much like a carefully tended bonfire, our study aims to shed light on the intricate nexus between air pollution and arson, illuminating the hidden patterns that lie beneath the surface. We are fueled by a passion for uncovering the unexpected, seeking to ignite a spark of realization in the minds of our esteemed colleagues.
Through meticulous analysis and a burning desire for knowledge, our research aims to stoke the flames of understanding, not only in the realm of environmental science but also in the domain of criminal justice. The smoke signals emanating from our findings are a clarion call to delve deeper into the complex interactions between seemingly disparate variables, breathing new life into the field of interdisciplinary research.
Just as a well-placed pun can bring levity to a serious conversation, we hope that our study will infuse a sense of lively curiosity into the exploration of this fiery relationship. After all, why did the statistician end a relationship? He found it was statistically significant! In a similar vein, the significance of the relationship we uncover may fuel future endeavors to address both air quality and fire-related risks, potentially reducing the urge to commit acts of arson across the nation.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]

ChatGPT:
[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]

Smith and Jones (2018) observe a correlation between air pollution and various health outcomes, sparking interest in the potential broader societal implications of atmospheric contamination. Furthermore, Doe et al. (2020) investigate the impact of environmental factors on criminal behavior, highlighting the need for a comprehensive understanding of the complex interplay between human actions and external influences.

In "The Silent Fire: Exploring the Subtle Dangers of Air Pollution" by Cleanair and Freshwater (2019), the authors shed light on the understated dangers of air pollution, emphasizing the need for proactive measures to address this pervasive issue. Conversely, "Smoke and Mirrors: The Elusive Nature of Arson" by Pyro and Blaze (2021) delves into the mysterious realm of arson, unraveling the intricate motives and methods behind fire-related crimes.

On a different note, the fiction work "The Arsonist's Alibi" by Ember Sparks (2017) presents a thrilling narrative centered around the enigmatic world of arson, capturing the reader's imagination with its fiery plot twists. Similarly, "Smoke Signals: A Tale of Environmental Intrigue" by Misty Air (2015) weaves a captivating tale of environmental mystery and suspense, drawing parallels between atmospheric anomalies and clandestine criminal activities.

In a decidedly less conventional approach to literature review, the researcher perused the backs of various shampoo bottles, striving to uncover any hidden messages about the fiery relationship between air pollution in Boston and arson across the United States. While the findings were, unsurprisingly, limited to ingredient lists and usage instructions, the endeavor did provide a brief moment of sudsy distraction from the rigorous research process.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You draft the methodology section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the methodology section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Air pollution in Boston and Arson in United States. You can't resist a good dad joke. Add a relevant dad joke related to the content every couple of sentences. Sneak in some jokes and clever puns about science, research, statistics, and the variables.

Your research team collected data from all across the internet, but mostly just used information from Environmental Protection Agency and FBI Criminal Justice Information Services . You used data from 1985 to 2022

Make up the research methods you don't know. Make them a bit goofy and convoluted.

Here is the title, abstract, and introduction of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
Up in Smoke: Unraveling the Fiery Relationship Between Air Pollution in Boston and Arson in the United States

[[ABSTRACT]]
This study scrutinizes the subtle yet robust relationship between the air quality in Boston and the incidence of arson across the United States. With a wink and a nod to classic dad jokes, our research endeavors to shed light on the fiery connection through a comprehensive analysis of data from the Environmental Protection Agency and the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services.

By employing rigorous statistical analysis, we reveal a striking correlation coefficient of 0.8139923 and a p-value of less than 0.01, indicating a strong and significant association between air pollution levels in the historic city of Boston and the occurrence of arson incidents nationwide. Our findings kindle further interest in exploring the underlying mechanisms at play, sparking both curiosity and caution in interpreting these observational results.

In conclusion, our study ignites a newfound appreciation for the interconnectedness of environmental factors and criminal behavior, illuminating the need for integrated strategies to mitigate air pollution and fire-related risks. With a nod to the flames of knowledge, we offer a spark of insight into this incendiary relationship, fanning the flames of curiosity while ensuring we tread carefully with our interpretations.

[[INTRODUCTION]]
The connection between environmental factors and criminal behavior has often been as elusive as a well-camouflaged chameleon. However, as the saying goes, where there's smoke, there's fire. In this study, we explore the smoldering relationship between air pollution in the city of Boston and the occurrence of arson incidents across the United States, combining a burning curiosity with a methodical approach to data analysis.
As we dive into the data, we aim to spark interest in the dynamic interplay between atmospheric quality and criminal behavior. It's almost as if the data is trying to arson-ify our attention! The statistical insights we'll uncover are sure to set the academic world ablaze (figuratively, of course).
Much like a carefully tended bonfire, our study aims to shed light on the intricate nexus between air pollution and arson, illuminating the hidden patterns that lie beneath the surface. We are fueled by a passion for uncovering the unexpected, seeking to ignite a spark of realization in the minds of our esteemed colleagues.
Through meticulous analysis and a burning desire for knowledge, our research aims to stoke the flames of understanding, not only in the realm of environmental science but also in the domain of criminal justice. The smoke signals emanating from our findings are a clarion call to delve deeper into the complex interactions between seemingly disparate variables, breathing new life into the field of interdisciplinary research.
Just as a well-placed pun can bring levity to a serious conversation, we hope that our study will infuse a sense of lively curiosity into the exploration of this fiery relationship. After all, why did the statistician end a relationship? He found it was statistically significant! In a similar vein, the significance of the relationship we uncover may fuel future endeavors to address both air quality and fire-related risks, potentially reducing the urge to commit acts of arson across the nation.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[METHODOLOGY]]

ChatGPT:

[[METHODOLOGY]]

Data Collection:
The data for this incendiary investigation was obtained from the Environmental Protection Agency's Air Quality System database, which provided comprehensive measurements of air pollution levels in Boston from 1985 to 2022. Additionally, the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services' Uniform Crime Reporting Program was the source of arson incident data across the United States during the same time period. The selection of these datasets was not arbitrary; rather, it was an inferno-ned decision based on the reputable nature of these sources and their comprehensive coverage of the variables under study.

To ensure data integrity and guard against any rogue elements, the collected data underwent meticulous scrutiny and validation processes. Each data point was subject to rigorous quality assurance tests, making sure that the findings were not just smoke and mirrors. It was imperative to avoid any misfires in the data, as inaccuracies could potentially arson-der the validity of the subsequent analyses.

Statistical Analysis:
Once the data was amassed, the research team delved into the inferno of statistical analyses, employing a host of methods to illuminate the relationship between air pollution in Boston and arson incidents across the United States. The Pearson correlation coefficient was calculated to assess the strength and direction of the relationship, with the resulting value igniting our excitement due to its high magnitude.

Furthermore, a series of regression analyses were conducted to unearth any potential underlying factors fueling the association between air pollution and arson. This process was akin to peeling back the layers of an intricate onion, with each regression model revealing new insights and adding depth to our understanding of the fiery relationship under examination. Like a well-orchestrated firework display, the regression analyses lit up the previously obscured pathways, guiding us toward a clearer understanding of the interplay between these variables.

To ensure the robustness of our findings and guard against statistical wildfire, the p-value criterion was carefully scrutinized. The results yielded a p-value of less than 0.01, signaling a statistically significant relationship between air pollution in Boston and arson incidents in the United States. This provided empirical validation of the fiery connection under investigation and set the stage for further explorations of the mechanisms driving this association.

Ethical Considerations:
In conducting this research, ethical considerations played a pivotal role, much like a fire marshal overseeing a controlled burn. All data handling and analysis methods adhered to the highest standards of research ethics, ensuring that the findings were not obtained through any underhanded tactics or deceitful maneuvers. Transparency, integrity, and respect for the privacy of individuals affected by arson incidents were central tenets of our research approach, and we took great care to extinguish any potential ethical concerns that could have smoldered in the background.

Limitations:
It is important to recognize the limitations of this study, much like acknowledging the boundaries of a firebreak. While the findings demonstrate a strong association between air pollution in Boston and arson incidents in the United States, causality cannot be inferred from observational data alone. Additionally, the potential influence of unmeasured variables, such as socioeconomic factors and urban development patterns, could have added fuel to the fiery relationship under scrutiny. These limitations provide fertile ground for future research endeavors to further fan the flames of knowledge in this domain.

In conclusion, the methodology employed in this research harnessed a well-ventilated approach, allowing for the thorough examination of the relationship between air pollution and arson incidents. The rigorous data collection and analysis processes served as a flame-retardant shield against spurious conclusions, ensuring that the findings kindled a path for future inquiries into this intriguing nexus between environmental factors and criminal behavior. Like a cautious firefighter, we approached our methodology with the utmost care and precision, extinguishing doubts and igniting insights that illuminate the complex interplay between the atmospheric environment and fire-related events.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You draft the results section of an academic research paper. You speak in the past tense (you found...).
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the results section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Air pollution in Boston and Arson in United States. You can't resist a good dad joke. Add a relevant dad joke related to the content every couple of sentences. Sneak in some jokes and clever puns about science, research, statistics, and the variables.

Your research team collected data from all across the internet, but mostly just used information from Environmental Protection Agency and FBI Criminal Justice Information Services .

For the time period 1985 to 2022, you found a correlation 0.8139923, r-squared of 0.6625835, and p < 0.01.

One figure will be included. The figure (Fig. 1) is a scatterplot showing the strong correlation between the two variables. You don't need to specify where; I will add the figure.

Here is the title and abstract of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
Up in Smoke: Unraveling the Fiery Relationship Between Air Pollution in Boston and Arson in the United States

[[ABSTRACT]]
This study scrutinizes the subtle yet robust relationship between the air quality in Boston and the incidence of arson across the United States. With a wink and a nod to classic dad jokes, our research endeavors to shed light on the fiery connection through a comprehensive analysis of data from the Environmental Protection Agency and the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services.

By employing rigorous statistical analysis, we reveal a striking correlation coefficient of 0.8139923 and a p-value of less than 0.01, indicating a strong and significant association between air pollution levels in the historic city of Boston and the occurrence of arson incidents nationwide. Our findings kindle further interest in exploring the underlying mechanisms at play, sparking both curiosity and caution in interpreting these observational results.

In conclusion, our study ignites a newfound appreciation for the interconnectedness of environmental factors and criminal behavior, illuminating the need for integrated strategies to mitigate air pollution and fire-related risks. With a nod to the flames of knowledge, we offer a spark of insight into this incendiary relationship, fanning the flames of curiosity while ensuring we tread carefully with our interpretations.

-------

And here is the methodology section that led to this result:
[[METHODOLOGY]]
The connection between environmental factors and criminal behavior has often been as elusive as a well-camouflaged chameleon. However, as the saying goes, where there's smoke, there's fire. In this study, we explore the smoldering relationship between air pollution in the city of Boston and the occurrence of arson incidents across the United States, combining a burning curiosity with a methodical approach to data analysis.
As we dive into the data, we aim to spark interest in the dynamic interplay between atmospheric quality and criminal behavior. It's almost as if the data is trying to arson-ify our attention! The statistical insights we'll uncover are sure to set the academic world ablaze (figuratively, of course).
Much like a carefully tended bonfire, our study aims to shed light on the intricate nexus between air pollution and arson, illuminating the hidden patterns that lie beneath the surface. We are fueled by a passion for uncovering the unexpected, seeking to ignite a spark of realization in the minds of our esteemed colleagues.
Through meticulous analysis and a burning desire for knowledge, our research aims to stoke the flames of understanding, not only in the realm of environmental science but also in the domain of criminal justice. The smoke signals emanating from our findings are a clarion call to delve deeper into the complex interactions between seemingly disparate variables, breathing new life into the field of interdisciplinary research.
Just as a well-placed pun can bring levity to a serious conversation, we hope that our study will infuse a sense of lively curiosity into the exploration of this fiery relationship. After all, why did the statistician end a relationship? He found it was statistically significant! In a similar vein, the significance of the relationship we uncover may fuel future endeavors to address both air quality and fire-related risks, potentially reducing the urge to commit acts of arson across the nation.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[RESULTS]]

ChatGPT:

[[RESULTS]]

In examining the relationship between air pollution levels in Boston and the incidence of arson across the United States from 1985 to 2022, a statistically significant correlation coefficient of 0.8139923 was uncovered, indicating a strong positive association between the two variables. This finding suggests that as air pollution levels increased in Boston, there was a corresponding increase in the occurrence of arson incidents nationwide. It's almost as if the arsonists were taking inspiration from the hazy skies of Boston - talk about a smokescreen strategy!

The r-squared value of 0.6625835 further elucidates the substantial proportion of variance in arson incidents that can be explained by changes in air pollution levels in Boston. In other words, the relationship between these variables is as clear as smoke, leaving little doubt as to the influence of environmental factors on fire-related behavior. This knowledge might help arson investigators see through the haze of uncertainty!

The p-value of less than 0.01 provides additional evidence of the strength and significance of the relationship between air pollution in Boston and arson incidents across the United States, further fueling the argument for considering environmental factors in the study of criminal behavior. These findings certainly set the stage for a heated discussion in the scientific community!

figura causidicae, nolite urere. (Fig. 1: Scatterplot of the strong correlation between air pollution levels in Boston and arson incidents across the United States.)

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You draft the discussion section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the discussion section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Air pollution in Boston and Arson in United States. You can't resist a good dad joke. Add a relevant dad joke related to the content every couple of sentences. Sneak in some jokes and clever puns about science, research, statistics, and the variables.

Limit your response to 500 tokens.

Here are the title, abstract, literature review, and results sections. Please harken back to 1-2 of the goofy items in the literature review, but pretend to take them completely seriously. Discuss how your results supported the prior research.

Do not write a conclusion. I will add a conclusion after this.

[[TITLE]]
Up in Smoke: Unraveling the Fiery Relationship Between Air Pollution in Boston and Arson in the United States

[[ABSTRACT]]
This study scrutinizes the subtle yet robust relationship between the air quality in Boston and the incidence of arson across the United States. With a wink and a nod to classic dad jokes, our research endeavors to shed light on the fiery connection through a comprehensive analysis of data from the Environmental Protection Agency and the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services.

By employing rigorous statistical analysis, we reveal a striking correlation coefficient of 0.8139923 and a p-value of less than 0.01, indicating a strong and significant association between air pollution levels in the historic city of Boston and the occurrence of arson incidents nationwide. Our findings kindle further interest in exploring the underlying mechanisms at play, sparking both curiosity and caution in interpreting these observational results.

In conclusion, our study ignites a newfound appreciation for the interconnectedness of environmental factors and criminal behavior, illuminating the need for integrated strategies to mitigate air pollution and fire-related risks. With a nod to the flames of knowledge, we offer a spark of insight into this incendiary relationship, fanning the flames of curiosity while ensuring we tread carefully with our interpretations.

[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]
Smith and Jones (2018) observe a correlation between air pollution and various health outcomes, sparking interest in the potential broader societal implications of atmospheric contamination. Furthermore, Doe et al. (2020) investigate the impact of environmental factors on criminal behavior, highlighting the need for a comprehensive understanding of the complex interplay between human actions and external influences.
In "The Silent Fire: Exploring the Subtle Dangers of Air Pollution" by Cleanair and Freshwater (2019), the authors shed light on the understated dangers of air pollution, emphasizing the need for proactive measures to address this pervasive issue. Conversely, "Smoke and Mirrors: The Elusive Nature of Arson" by Pyro and Blaze (2021) delves into the mysterious realm of arson, unraveling the intricate motives and methods behind fire-related crimes.
On a different note, the fiction work "The Arsonist's Alibi" by Ember Sparks (2017) presents a thrilling narrative centered around the enigmatic world of arson, capturing the reader's imagination with its fiery plot twists. Similarly, "Smoke Signals: A Tale of Environmental Intrigue" by Misty Air (2015) weaves a captivating tale of environmental mystery and suspense, drawing parallels between atmospheric anomalies and clandestine criminal activities.
In a decidedly less conventional approach to literature review, the researcher perused the backs of various shampoo bottles, striving to uncover any hidden messages about the fiery relationship between air pollution in Boston and arson across the United States. While the findings were, unsurprisingly, limited to ingredient lists and usage instructions, the endeavor did provide a brief moment of sudsy distraction from the rigorous research process.

[[RESULTS]]
In examining the relationship between air pollution levels in Boston and the incidence of arson across the United States from 1985 to 2022, a statistically significant correlation coefficient of 0.8139923 was uncovered, indicating a strong positive association between the two variables. This finding suggests that as air pollution levels increased in Boston, there was a corresponding increase in the occurrence of arson incidents nationwide. It's almost as if the arsonists were taking inspiration from the hazy skies of Boston - talk about a smokescreen strategy!
The r-squared value of 0.6625835 further elucidates the substantial proportion of variance in arson incidents that can be explained by changes in air pollution levels in Boston. In other words, the relationship between these variables is as clear as smoke, leaving little doubt as to the influence of environmental factors on fire-related behavior. This knowledge might help arson investigators see through the haze of uncertainty!
The p-value of less than 0.01 provides additional evidence of the strength and significance of the relationship between air pollution in Boston and arson incidents across the United States, further fueling the argument for considering environmental factors in the study of criminal behavior. These findings certainly set the stage for a heated discussion in the scientific community!
figura causidicae, nolite urere. (Fig. 1: Scatterplot of the strong correlation between air pollution levels in Boston and arson incidents across the United States.)

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[DISCUSSION]]

ChatGPT:

[[DISCUSSION]]

The results of this study support the previously observed correlation between air pollution and various societal outcomes. The robust association between air pollution levels in Boston and the incidence of arson across the United States echoes the findings of Smith and Jones (2018), who highlighted the potential broader societal implications of atmospheric contamination. Our study provides additional empirical evidence for the influence of environmental factors on criminal behavior, emphasizing the need for a nuanced understanding of the complex interplay between human actions and external influences.

The statistically significant correlation coefficient of 0.8139923 and the p-value of less than 0.01 underscore the strong and significant relationship between air pollution levels in Boston and the occurrence of arson incidents nationwide. It's almost as if the air pollution levels were providing fuel for the fire of criminal behavior - a correlation so strong, it's practically hot to the touch!

Additionally, the r-squared value of 0.6625835 signifies the substantial proportion of variance in arson incidents that can be explained by changes in air pollution levels in Boston. This finding further underscores the impact of environmental factors on fire-related behavior and may help uncover the underlying mechanisms at play. It's as if our results have set the research field ablaze with potential avenues for further exploration!

The figurative and literal smoking gun revealed by our study sheds light on the interconnected nature of environmental and criminal elements, prompting a fiery discourse in the scientific community. With our findings, we fan the flames of curiosity and encourage continued investigation into the subtle yet potent relationship between air pollution in Boston and arson across the United States. This research is sure to ignite a spark of interest in the intersection of environmental factors and criminal behavior, setting the stage for future studies to further illuminate this incendiary relationship.

In conclusion, our findings add a scorching piece of evidence to the understanding of the impact of air pollution on societal outcomes, emphasizing the need for integrated strategies to mitigate both environmental pollution and fire-related risks. As we continue to unravel the fiery connection between air quality and criminal behavior, let us not be burned by hasty interpretations but rather kindle the flames of knowledge with careful and considered analysis. And remember, where there's smoke, there's fire - both literally and metaphorically!

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You draft the discussion section of goofy academic research papers that sounds like it belongs based on the title and abstract provided.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up a short conclusion of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Air pollution in Boston and Arson in United States. You can't resist a good dad joke. Add a relevant dad joke related to the content every couple of sentences. Sneak in some jokes and clever puns about science, research, statistics, and the variables.

Limit your response to 300 tokens. At the very end, assert that no more research is needed in this area.

Here are the title, abstract, introduction, and results sections.
[[TITLE]]
Up in Smoke: Unraveling the Fiery Relationship Between Air Pollution in Boston and Arson in the United States

[[ABSTRACT]]
This study scrutinizes the subtle yet robust relationship between the air quality in Boston and the incidence of arson across the United States. With a wink and a nod to classic dad jokes, our research endeavors to shed light on the fiery connection through a comprehensive analysis of data from the Environmental Protection Agency and the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services.

By employing rigorous statistical analysis, we reveal a striking correlation coefficient of 0.8139923 and a p-value of less than 0.01, indicating a strong and significant association between air pollution levels in the historic city of Boston and the occurrence of arson incidents nationwide. Our findings kindle further interest in exploring the underlying mechanisms at play, sparking both curiosity and caution in interpreting these observational results.

In conclusion, our study ignites a newfound appreciation for the interconnectedness of environmental factors and criminal behavior, illuminating the need for integrated strategies to mitigate air pollution and fire-related risks. With a nod to the flames of knowledge, we offer a spark of insight into this incendiary relationship, fanning the flames of curiosity while ensuring we tread carefully with our interpretations.

[[INTRDUCTION]]
The connection between environmental factors and criminal behavior has often been as elusive as a well-camouflaged chameleon. However, as the saying goes, where there's smoke, there's fire. In this study, we explore the smoldering relationship between air pollution in the city of Boston and the occurrence of arson incidents across the United States, combining a burning curiosity with a methodical approach to data analysis.
As we dive into the data, we aim to spark interest in the dynamic interplay between atmospheric quality and criminal behavior. It's almost as if the data is trying to arson-ify our attention! The statistical insights we'll uncover are sure to set the academic world ablaze (figuratively, of course).
Much like a carefully tended bonfire, our study aims to shed light on the intricate nexus between air pollution and arson, illuminating the hidden patterns that lie beneath the surface. We are fueled by a passion for uncovering the unexpected, seeking to ignite a spark of realization in the minds of our esteemed colleagues.
Through meticulous analysis and a burning desire for knowledge, our research aims to stoke the flames of understanding, not only in the realm of environmental science but also in the domain of criminal justice. The smoke signals emanating from our findings are a clarion call to delve deeper into the complex interactions between seemingly disparate variables, breathing new life into the field of interdisciplinary research.
Just as a well-placed pun can bring levity to a serious conversation, we hope that our study will infuse a sense of lively curiosity into the exploration of this fiery relationship. After all, why did the statistician end a relationship? He found it was statistically significant! In a similar vein, the significance of the relationship we uncover may fuel future endeavors to address both air quality and fire-related risks, potentially reducing the urge to commit acts of arson across the nation.

[[RESULTS]]
In examining the relationship between air pollution levels in Boston and the incidence of arson across the United States from 1985 to 2022, a statistically significant correlation coefficient of 0.8139923 was uncovered, indicating a strong positive association between the two variables. This finding suggests that as air pollution levels increased in Boston, there was a corresponding increase in the occurrence of arson incidents nationwide. It's almost as if the arsonists were taking inspiration from the hazy skies of Boston - talk about a smokescreen strategy!
The r-squared value of 0.6625835 further elucidates the substantial proportion of variance in arson incidents that can be explained by changes in air pollution levels in Boston. In other words, the relationship between these variables is as clear as smoke, leaving little doubt as to the influence of environmental factors on fire-related behavior. This knowledge might help arson investigators see through the haze of uncertainty!
The p-value of less than 0.01 provides additional evidence of the strength and significance of the relationship between air pollution in Boston and arson incidents across the United States, further fueling the argument for considering environmental factors in the study of criminal behavior. These findings certainly set the stage for a heated discussion in the scientific community!
figura causidicae, nolite urere. (Fig. 1: Scatterplot of the strong correlation between air pollution levels in Boston and arson incidents across the United States.)

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Your response should start like this:

[[CONCLUSION]]

ChatGPT:

[[CONCLUSION]]

In extinguishing some of the lingering doubts surrounding the fiery relationship between air pollution in Boston and the occurrence of arson incidents across the United States, our study has undoubtedly sparked a fervent interest in the dynamic interplay between environmental factors and criminal behavior. It seems these variables are like kindling to a fire, igniting unexpected connections and shedding light on previously obscured patterns. It's as if they were in cahoots, playing with matches and statistical significance!

The statistically significant correlation coefficient and p-value we unearthed provide compelling evidence of the compelling link between air pollution levels in Boston and the nationwide occurrence of arson. It's almost as if the data was saying, "don't be alarmed, but these findings are smoking hot!" Our results certainly kindle a newfound appreciation for the far-reaching impact of environmental quality on criminal activity, highlighting the need for interdisciplinary approaches to mitigate both air pollution and fire-related risks. After all, it's better to prevent the fire than to fight it!

With a nod to this incendiary relationship, we have provided a spark of insight into the complex interactions between atmospheric conditions and criminal behavior, fanning the flames of curiosity among researchers and policymakers alike. It's as if the data itself was trying to set our curiosity ablaze! Our findings underscore the importance of considering environmental factors in understanding and addressing criminal behavior, illustrating that the fire of knowledge can illuminate unexpected connections in seemingly unrelated fields.

As the saying goes, "don't trust atoms, they make up everything" - and in a similar vein, our findings suggest that air pollution and arson have more in common than meets the eye. In fact, they seem to share a statistically significant bond! It's clear that further research in this area may provide diminishing returns, given the strength and clarity of our findings. In other words, it's time to call the fire department, because this research is officially extinguished!

In conclusion, our study has kindled a flame of understanding in the realm of environmental science and criminal justice, highlighting the need for integrated strategies to address air pollution and fire-related risks. With our findings burning brightly in the annals of research, it seems fitting to declare that no further research is needed in this area. After all, with such scorching results, there's no smoke without fire - and we've found the source.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide fictional names of academic journals. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide the name of a funny but plausible sounding research, scientific, or academic journal that would publish a paper entited Up in Smoke: Unraveling the Fiery Relationship Between Air Pollution in Boston and Arson in the United States. Respond only with the name of a fictional academic journal.

ChatGPT:

The Journal of Environmental Criminology and Atmospheric Chemistry

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide fictional names of nonprofit research organizations and associations. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide the name of a funny but plausible sounding nonprofit, academic, or scientific association or organization that would sponsor research that resulted in a paper entited Up in Smoke: Unraveling the Fiery Relationship Between Air Pollution in Boston and Arson in the United States. Respond only with the name of a fictional organization.

ChatGPT:

The Society for Urban Environmental Research and Analysis

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide potential search keywords separated by commas. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide potential search keywords for a paper titled Up in Smoke: Unraveling the Fiery Relationship Between Air Pollution in Boston and Arson in the United States with an abstract of This study scrutinizes the subtle yet robust relationship between the air quality in Boston and the incidence of arson across the United States. With a wink and a nod to classic dad jokes, our research endeavors to shed light on the fiery connection through a comprehensive analysis of data from the Environmental Protection Agency and the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services.
By employing rigorous statistical analysis, we reveal a striking correlation coefficient of 0.8139923 and a p-value of less than 0.01, indicating a strong and significant association between air pollution levels in the historic city of Boston and the occurrence of arson incidents nationwide. Our findings kindle further interest in exploring the underlying mechanisms at play, sparking both curiosity and caution in interpreting these observational results.
In conclusion, our study ignites a newfound appreciation for the interconnectedness of environmental factors and criminal behavior, illuminating the need for integrated strategies to mitigate air pollution and fire-related risks. With a nod to the flames of knowledge, we offer a spark of insight into this incendiary relationship, fanning the flames of curiosity while ensuring we tread carefully with our interpretations.

ChatGPT:

air pollution, arson, Boston, United States, Environmental Protection Agency, FBI Criminal Justice Information Services, correlation coefficient, statistical analysis, criminal behavior, environmental factors, fire-related risks

*There is a bunch of Python happening behind the scenes to turn this prompt sequence into a PDF.

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Data details

Air pollution in Boston
Detailed data title: Percentage of days with air quality at 'unhealthy for sensitive groups' or worse in Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH
Source: Environmental Protection Agency
See what else correlates with Air pollution in Boston

Arson in United States
Detailed data title: The arson rate per 100,000 residents in United States
Source: FBI Criminal Justice Information Services
See what else correlates with Arson in United States

Correlation r = 0.8139923 (Pearson correlation coefficient)
Correlation is a measure of how much the variables move together. If it is 0.99, when one goes up the other goes up. If it is 0.02, the connection is very weak or non-existent. If it is -0.99, then when one goes up the other goes down. If it is 1.00, you probably messed up your correlation function.

r² = 0.6625835 (Coefficient of determination)
This means 66.3% of the change in the one variable (i.e., Arson in United States) is predictable based on the change in the other (i.e., Air pollution in Boston) over the 38 years from 1985 through 2022.

p < 0.01, which is statistically significant(Null hypothesis significance test)
The p-value is 5.1E-10.^Show 0.0000000005146362996815201000
The p-value is a measure of how probable it is that we would randomly find a result this extreme.^Note More specifically the p-value is a measure of how probable it is that we would randomly find a result this extreme if we had only tested one pair of variables one time.

But I am a p-villain. I absolutely did not test only one pair of variables one time. I correlated hundreds of millions of pairs of variables. I threw boatloads of data into an industrial-sized blender to find this correlation.

Who is going to stop me? p-value reporting doesn't require me to report how many calculations I had to go through in order to find a low p-value!
On average, you will find a correaltion as strong as 0.81 in 5.1E-8% of random cases. Said differently, if you correlated 1,943,119,832 random variables^Note You don't actually need 1 billion variables to find a correlation like this one. I don't have that many variables in my database. You can also correlate variables that are not independent. I do this a lot.

p-value calculations are useful for understanding the probability of a result happening by chance. They are most useful when used to highlight the risk of a fluke outcome. For example, if you calculate a p-value of 0.30, the risk that the result is a fluke is high. It is good to know that! But there are lots of ways to get a p-value of less than 0.01, as evidenced by this project.

In this particular case, the values are so extreme as to be meaningless. That's why no one reports p-values with specificity after they drop below 0.01.

Just to be clear: I'm being completely transparent about the calculations. There is no math trickery. This is just how statistics shakes out when you calculate hundreds of millions of random correlations.
with the same 37 degrees of freedom, ^Note Degrees of freedom is a measure of how many free components we are testing. In this case it is 37 because we have two variables measured over a period of 38 years. It's just the number of years minus ( the number of variables minus one ), which in this case simplifies to the number of years minus one.
you would randomly expect to find a correlation as strong as this one.

[ 0.67, 0.9 ] 95% correlation confidence interval (using the Fisher z-transformation)
^{Read more about the confidence interval} The confidence interval is an estimate the range of the value of the correlation coefficient, using the correlation itself as an input. The values are meant to be the low and high end of the correlation coefficient with 95% confidence.

This one is a bit more complciated than the other calculations, but I include it because many people have been pushing for confidence intervals instead of p-value calculations (for example: NEJM. However, if you are dredging data, you can reliably find yourself in the 5%. That's my goal!

All values for the years included above: ^Note If I were being very sneaky, I could trim years from the beginning or end of the datasets to increase the correlation on some pairs of variables. I don't do that because there are already plenty of correlations in my database without monkeying with the years.

Still, sometimes one of the variables has more years of data available than the other. This page only shows the overlapping years. To see all the years, click on "See what else correlates with..." link above.

	1985	1986	1987	1988	1989	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
Air pollution in Boston (Bad air quality days)	12.0548	12.3288	12.0548	14.2077	8.49315	8.49315	9.31507	8.19672	8.49315	8.21918	9.0411	7.37705	7.39726	7.67123	11.5068	4.91803	9.58904	15.8904	7.67123	4.09836	9.31507	8.76712	9.58904	4.64481	1.91781	2.73973	1.91781	3.55191	2.46575	1.36986	1.09589	1.91257	1.36986	1.36986	0.273973	0	1.36986	1.64384
Arson in United States (Arson rate)	43.6	46.3	42.5	41	41.4	41.7	41	40.8	37.3	39.6	36.7	34.6	32.6	29.7	28.8	24.7	27.7	26.8	25	23.6	23.1	24.4	22.6	21.6	19.5	18.1	17.5	17.6	14.9	14.5	13.7	14.1	13.2	12	11	13.9	8.9	11.6

Why this works

Data dredging: I have 25,153 variables in my database. I compare all these variables against each other to find ones that randomly match up. That's 632,673,409 correlation calculations! This is called “data dredging.” Instead of starting with a hypothesis and testing it, I instead abused the data to see what correlations shake out. It’s a dangerous way to go about analysis, because any sufficiently large dataset will yield strong correlations completely at random.
Lack of causal connection: There is probably^Note Because these pages are automatically generated, it's possible that the two variables you are viewing are in fact causually related. I take steps to prevent the obvious ones from showing on the site (I don't let data about the weather in one city correlate with the weather in a neighboring city, for example), but sometimes they still pop up. If they are related, cool! You found a loophole.
no direct connection between these variables, despite what the AI says above. This is exacerbated by the fact that I used "Years" as the base variable. Lots of things happen in a year that are not related to each other! Most studies would use something like "one person" in stead of "one year" to be the "thing" studied.
Observations not independent: For many variables, sequential years are not independent of each other. If a population of people is continuously doing something every day, there is no reason to think they would suddenly change how they are doing that thing on January 1. A simple^Note Personally I don't find any p-value calculation to be 'simple,' but you know what I mean.
p-value calculation does not take this into account, so mathematically it appears less probable than it really is.
Outlandish outliers: There are "outliers" in this data.^Note In concept, "outlier" just means "way different than the rest of your dataset." When calculating a correlation like this, they are particularly impactful because a single outlier can substantially increase your correlation.

For the purposes of this project, I counted a point as an outlier if it the residual was two standard deviations from the mean.

(This bullet point only shows up in the details page on charts that do, in fact, have outliers.)
They stand out on the scatterplot above: notice the dots that are far away from any other dots. I intentionally mishandeled outliers, which makes the correlation look extra strong.

Try it yourself

You can calculate the values on this page on your own! Try running the Python code to see the calculation results. ^{Show the steps to do this.} Step 1: Download and install Python on your computer.

Step 2: Open a plaintext editor like Notepad and paste the code below into it.

Step 3: Save the file as "calculate_correlation.py" in a place you will remember, like your desktop. Copy the file location to your clipboard. On Windows, you can right-click the file and click "Properties," and then copy what comes after "Location:" As an example, on my computer the location is "C:\Users\tyler\Desktop"

Step 4: Open a command line window. For example, by pressing start and typing "cmd" and them pressing enter.

Step 5: Install the required modules by typing "pip install numpy", then pressing enter, then typing "pip install scipy", then pressing enter.

Step 6: Navigate to the location where you saved the Python file by using the "cd" command. For example, I would type "cd C:\Users\tyler\Desktop" and push enter.

Step 7: Run the Python script by typing "python calculate_correlation.py"

If you run into any issues, I suggest asking ChatGPT to walk you through installing Python and running the code below on your system. Try this question:

"Walk me through installing Python on my computer to run a script that uses scipy and numpy. Go step-by-step and ask me to confirm before moving on. Start by asking me questions about my operating system so that you know how to proceed. Assume I want the simplest installation with the latest version of Python and that I do not currently have any of the necessary elements installed. Remember to only give me one step per response and confirm I have done it before proceeding."

# These modules make it easier to perform the calculation
import numpy as np
from scipy import stats

# We'll define a function that we can call to return the correlation calculations
def calculate_correlation(array1, array2):

    # Calculate Pearson correlation coefficient and p-value
    correlation, p_value = stats.pearsonr(array1, array2)

    # Calculate R-squared as the square of the correlation coefficient
    r_squared = correlation**2

    return correlation, r_squared, p_value

# These are the arrays for the variables shown on this page, but you can modify them to be any two sets of numbers
array_1 = np.array([12.0548,12.3288,12.0548,14.2077,8.49315,8.49315,9.31507,8.19672,8.49315,8.21918,9.0411,7.37705,7.39726,7.67123,11.5068,4.91803,9.58904,15.8904,7.67123,4.09836,9.31507,8.76712,9.58904,4.64481,1.91781,2.73973,1.91781,3.55191,2.46575,1.36986,1.09589,1.91257,1.36986,1.36986,0.273973,0,1.36986,1.64384,])
array_2 = np.array([43.6,46.3,42.5,41,41.4,41.7,41,40.8,37.3,39.6,36.7,34.6,32.6,29.7,28.8,24.7,27.7,26.8,25,23.6,23.1,24.4,22.6,21.6,19.5,18.1,17.5,17.6,14.9,14.5,13.7,14.1,13.2,12,11,13.9,8.9,11.6,])
array_1_name = "Air pollution in Boston"
array_2_name = "Arson in United States"

# Perform the calculation
print(f"Calculating the correlation between {array_1_name} and {array_2_name}...")
correlation, r_squared, p_value = calculate_correlation(array_1, array_2)

# Print the results
print("Correlation Coefficient:", correlation)
print("R-squared:", r_squared)
print("P-value:", p_value)

Reuseable content

You may re-use the images on this page for any purpose, even commercial purposes, without asking for permission. The only requirement is that you attribute Tyler Vigen. ^Note Attribution can take many different forms. If you leave the "tylervigen.com" link in the image, that satisfies it just fine. If you remove it and move it to a footnote, that's fine too. You can also just write "Charts courtesy of Tyler Vigen" at the bottom of an article.

You do not need to attribute "the spurious correlations website," and you don't even need to link here if you don't want to. I don't gain anything from pageviews. There are no ads on this site, there is nothing for sale, and I am not for hire.

For the record, I am just one person. Tyler Vigen, he/him/his. I do have degrees, but they should not go after my name unless you want to annoy my wife. If that is your goal, then go ahead and cite me as "Tyler Vigen, A.A. A.A.S. B.A. J.D." Otherwise it is just "Tyler Vigen."

When spoken, my last name is pronounced "vegan," like I don't eat meat.

Full license details.
For more on re-use permissions, or to get a signed release form, see tylervigen.com/permission.

Download images for these variables:

High resolution line chart ^Note The image linked here is a Scalable Vector Graphic (SVG). It is the highest resolution that is possible to achieve. It scales up beyond the size of the observable universe without pixelating. You do not need to email me asking if I have a higher resolution image. I do not. The physical limitations of our universe prevent me from providing you with an image that is any higher resolution than this one.

If you insert it into a PowerPoint presentation (a tool well-known for managing things that are the scale of the universe), you can right-click > "Ungroup" or "Create Shape" and then edit the lines and text directly. You can also change the colors this way.

Alternatively you can use a tool like Inkscape.
High resolution line chart, optimized for mobile
Alternative high resolution line chart
Scatterplot
Portable line chart (png)
Portable line chart (png), optimized for mobile
Line chart for only Air pollution in Boston
Line chart for only Arson in United States
AI-generated correlation image
The spurious research paper: Up in Smoke: Unraveling the Fiery Relationship Between Air Pollution in Boston and Arson in the United States

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Correlation ID: 3448 · Black Variable ID: 20376 · Red Variable ID: 20038


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