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Spurious correlation #2,850 · View random

A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is Air pollution in Anchorage and the second variable is Violent crime rates.  The chart goes from 1985 to 2022, and the two variables track closely in value over that time. Small Image
Download png
, svg

AI explanation

The decrease in air pollution led to everyone being in a better mood, so there was less need to resort to violent behavior. The citizens were no longer feeling choked by both smog and their anger, leading to a much clearer and more peaceful state of mind. It turns out that when you can finally take a deep breath of fresh air, you're just too busy inhaling those good vibes to bother with any criminal activities. Who knew that cleaning up the air could also clear up the streets?

Model: dalle-3
Prompt: Generate an image that depicts the transformation of Anchorage, Alaska, with cleaner air and reduced crime following a decline in air pollution. Show people walking peacefully through the city streets with fresh, clear air, and a sense of calm and safety. Emphasize the contrast between the previous polluted atmosphere and the current serene and safe environment. The image should capture the newfound peace and tranquility that the residents are experiencing in the city. The depiction should include only scenes, people, and objects, it should not include text or speech bubbles.
This image generation prompt was also generated by AI, using the following sequence:

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You select one of a few potential scene descriptors that seems to go along with the variables described. You respond only with the scene descriptions provided and say nothing else.
User prompt: Here are two variables: Air pollution in Anchorage and Violent crime rates. Given these, which of the following image style descriptions seems most appropriate? Pick the one that seems to be related to one of the variables at hand. Please respond with only one of the following potential descriptions: a meme Psychedelic Oragami An image that looks like it is a scene from a Pixar movie Futuristic
ChatGPT: A meme

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You describe simple visual scenes that depict the two variables stated. You combine both variables into one scene.
User prompt: Please describe a visual scene that prominently depicts both Air pollution in Anchorage and Violent crime rates, in the following situation: Well, you see, as the air pollution decreased in Anchorage, so did the criminals' need to "clear the air" with violent behavior. With cleaner lungs, they found more peace and tranquility, leading to a decrease in violent crime rates. It's all just a breath of fresh air!. Keep the description simple.
ChatGPT: In Anchorage, the air is now cleaner, with fewer cars emitting smoke. People are walking around the city's streets and the atmosphere is visibly fresher. At the same time, the streets appear safer as there's a noticeable decrease in violent crime. The lack of air pollution seems to have brought a certain calm over the city, and the residents are enjoying a newfound peace.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You write and improve image generation prompts for DALLE-3. You maintain the same subjects, but enhance the visuals.
User prompt: Please respond with an image generation prompt that would be likely to create an interesting visual using DALLE-3, using the following style: [ A meme ] and depicting this scene: In Anchorage, the air is now cleaner, with fewer cars emitting smoke. People are walking around the city's streets and the atmosphere is visibly fresher. At the same time, the streets appear safer as there's a noticeable decrease in violent crime. The lack of air pollution seems to have brought a certain calm over the city, and the residents are enjoying a newfound peace. Keep the visual depiction simple. Do not include any words or speech bubbles.
ChatGPT: Generate an image that depicts the transformation of Anchorage, Alaska, with cleaner air and reduced crime following a decline in air pollution. Show people walking peacefully through the city streets with fresh, clear air, and a sense of calm and safety. Emphasize the contrast between the previous polluted atmosphere and the current serene and safe environment. The image should capture the newfound peace and tranquility that the residents are experiencing in the city.

*Variations in the User Prompts from chart to chart are just the result of random number generation in Python. I wrote a few arrays of various styles and methods to ask questions to change up the results. Every time this site writes an explanation or generates an image, the script picks from each at random.

I sequence the requests into multiple prompts because I find GPT 3.5 to perform much better with short, well-managed contexts. Thus, I track the context directly in Python and only ask ChatGPT targeted questions.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106 (fine-tuned)
System prompt: You provide humorous responses in the form of plausible sounding explanations for correlations. You assume the correlation is causative for the purpose of the explanation even if it is ridiculous. You do not chat with the user, you only reply with the causal connection explanation and nothing else.
User prompt: Please make up a funny explanation for how a decrease in Air pollution in Anchorage caused Violent crime rates to decrease.

AI academic paper

(Because p < 0.01)
The Perplexing Polution-People Paradox: Exploring the Link Between Air Pollution in Anchorage and Violent Crime Rates

The Journal of Ecological Criminology and Atmospheric Studies

Jan 2024

Reminder: This paper is AI-generated. Not real!
Quick note: This sequence is long and repetitive. That's how the prompt engineering works for this one. I manage the output in Python to format it into this PDF.




Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a researcher writing an academic paper.You write titles and abstracts of goofy academic research papers.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, and add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please draft the title and abstract of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Air pollution in Anchorage and Violent crime rates. Make lots of jokes, goofy observations, and puns.

Make the title an alliteration.

Your research team used data from Environmental Protection Agency and FBI Criminal Justice Information Services to assess this nagging question. You found a correlation coefficient of 0.7081343 and p < 0.01 for 1985 to 2022.

Please respond in this format (replace "Lorem ipsum dolor sit" with your title and abstract)

[[TITLE]]
Lorem ipsum dolor sit

[[ABSTRACT]]
Lorem ipsum dolor sit



ChatGPT:
[[TITLE]]
The Perplexing Polution-People Paradox: Exploring the Link Between Air Pollution in Anchorage and Violent Crime Rates

[[ABSTRACT]]
Amidst the crisp Alaskan air, a cloud of inquiry hangs over the connection between air pollution and violent crime rates in Anchorage. This study dives deep into the data, mining for any signs of a smoggy influence on criminal behavior. Our research team delved into the Environmental Protection Agency's atmospheric archives and sifted through the FBI's Criminal Justice Information Services to corral the necessary data. Unveiling a correlation coefficient of 0.7081343 and a p-value smaller than a snowflake's footprint, our findings point to a robust association between air pollution levels and violent crime rates from 1985 to 2022.

Our findings serve as a breath of fresh, albeit slightly contaminated, air in the ongoing dialogue about the environmental impact on human behavior. Whether it's the toxic fumes fueling foul play or a mere atmospheric coincidence, this study sparks conversation and sets the stage for further scrutiny into the enigmatic intersection of air quality and aggressive antics.


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a researcher writing an academic paper.You draft the introduction section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the introduction section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Air pollution in Anchorage and Violent crime rates. Make lots of jokes, goofy observations, and puns.

Here is the title and abstract of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
The Perplexing Polution-People Paradox: Exploring the Link Between Air Pollution in Anchorage and Violent Crime Rates

[[ABSTRACT]]
Amidst the crisp Alaskan air, a cloud of inquiry hangs over the connection between air pollution and violent crime rates in Anchorage. This study dives deep into the data, mining for any signs of a smoggy influence on criminal behavior. Our research team delved into the Environmental Protection Agency's atmospheric archives and sifted through the FBI's Criminal Justice Information Services to corral the necessary data. Unveiling a correlation coefficient of 0.7081343 and a p-value smaller than a snowflake's footprint, our findings point to a robust association between air pollution levels and violent crime rates from 1985 to 2022.

Our findings serve as a breath of fresh, albeit slightly contaminated, air in the ongoing dialogue about the environmental impact on human behavior. Whether it's the toxic fumes fueling foul play or a mere atmospheric coincidence, this study sparks conversation and sets the stage for further scrutiny into the enigmatic intersection of air quality and aggressive antics.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[INTRODUCTION]]



ChatGPT:
Ah, the idyllic expanse of Anchorage, where the northern lights dance in the celestial sky and the majestic moose roam freely, seemingly untouched by the urban trappings of a bustling city. Yet amidst the rugged beauty of this Alaskan metropolis, a seemingly paradoxical relationship between the quality of the air and the conduct of its inhabitants emerges. The snarling traffic, industrial emissions, and perhaps an occasional belching bear seem to converge in the curious confluence of air pollution and violent crime rates.

As the cityscape evolves, so too does the atmospheric milieu, presenting an opportune moment to investigate the tantalizing question: does the quality of the air we breathe have any influence on the likelihood of less-than-law-abiding behavior? It is this enigmatic intersection that our research team has sought to unravel, armed with statistical analyses sharper than a polar bear's teeth.

In this study, we explore the potential link between air pollution levels and violent crime rates in Anchorage, delving into the depths of data like intrepid explorers traversing the Alaskan wilderness. We scrutinize the murky plumes that cloak the city and the impact they may have on the propensities of its denizens, all with a twinkle in our eyes and a dose of humor that's icier than a glacier.

So buckle up, dear readers, as we embark on a journey through the labyrinth of statistical models, investigative insights, and a dash of whimsy – all in pursuit of unraveling the perplexing "Polution-People Paradox" that leaves us pondering the unseen forces shaping our behavior.


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a researcher writing an academic paper.You draft a literature review section of an academic research paper, that starts out dry for the first few sentences but then becomes hilarious and goofy.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up a literature review section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Air pollution in Anchorage and Violent crime rates. Make lots of jokes, goofy observations, and puns.

Speak in the present tense for this section (the authors find...), as is common in academic research paper literature reviews. Name the sources in a format similar to this: In "Book," the authors find lorem and ipsum.

Make up the lorem and ipsum part, but make it sound related to the topic at hand.

Start by naming serious-sounding studies by authors like Smith, Doe, and Jones - but then quickly devolve. Name some real non-fiction books that would be related to the topic. Then name some real fiction books that sound like they could be related. Then cite some social media posts you read that seem to be related.

Here is the title and abstract of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
The Perplexing Polution-People Paradox: Exploring the Link Between Air Pollution in Anchorage and Violent Crime Rates

[[ABSTRACT]]
Amidst the crisp Alaskan air, a cloud of inquiry hangs over the connection between air pollution and violent crime rates in Anchorage. This study dives deep into the data, mining for any signs of a smoggy influence on criminal behavior. Our research team delved into the Environmental Protection Agency's atmospheric archives and sifted through the FBI's Criminal Justice Information Services to corral the necessary data. Unveiling a correlation coefficient of 0.7081343 and a p-value smaller than a snowflake's footprint, our findings point to a robust association between air pollution levels and violent crime rates from 1985 to 2022.

Our findings serve as a breath of fresh, albeit slightly contaminated, air in the ongoing dialogue about the environmental impact on human behavior. Whether it's the toxic fumes fueling foul play or a mere atmospheric coincidence, this study sparks conversation and sets the stage for further scrutiny into the enigmatic intersection of air quality and aggressive antics.

-------

And here is the introduction section that led to this literature review:
[[INTRODUCTION]]
Ah, the idyllic expanse of Anchorage, where the northern lights dance in the celestial sky and the majestic moose roam freely, seemingly untouched by the urban trappings of a bustling city. Yet amidst the rugged beauty of this Alaskan metropolis, a seemingly paradoxical relationship between the quality of the air and the conduct of its inhabitants emerges. The snarling traffic, industrial emissions, and perhaps an occasional belching bear seem to converge in the curious confluence of air pollution and violent crime rates.
As the cityscape evolves, so too does the atmospheric milieu, presenting an opportune moment to investigate the tantalizing question: does the quality of the air we breathe have any influence on the likelihood of less-than-law-abiding behavior? It is this enigmatic intersection that our research team has sought to unravel, armed with statistical analyses sharper than a polar bear's teeth.
In this study, we explore the potential link between air pollution levels and violent crime rates in Anchorage, delving into the depths of data like intrepid explorers traversing the Alaskan wilderness. We scrutinize the murky plumes that cloak the city and the impact they may have on the propensities of its denizens, all with a twinkle in our eyes and a dose of humor that's icier than a glacier.
So buckle up, dear readers, as we embark on a journey through the labyrinth of statistical models, investigative insights, and a dash of whimsy – all in pursuit of unraveling the perplexing "Polution-People Paradox" that leaves us pondering the unseen forces shaping our behavior.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]



ChatGPT:
[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]

Several studies have sought to uncover the mysterious relationship between air pollution and criminal behavior, shedding light on the hazy clouds that cloak this perplexing paradox. Smith et al. (2015) conducted a comprehensive analysis examining air quality metrics and crime data, unearthing correlations as intriguing as an elusive aurora borealis. Similarly, Doe and Jones (2018) delved into the depths of atmospheric chemistry and crime statistics, unraveling a web of intricacies that rival the convoluted pathways of a glacier.

In "Air Quality and Crime: A Statistical Analysis," the authors find that higher levels of particulate matter are associated with an uptick in aggravated assaults and vandalism, painting a bleak, albeit smudged, picture of the impact of air pollution on criminal conduct. In "Toxic Tendencies: The Surprising Influence of Air Pollutants on Human Aggression," the authors present compelling evidence linking elevated levels of nitrogen dioxide to an increase in petty theft and public disturbances, leaving readers breathless with astonishment – or perhaps due to the airborne toxicity.

Venturing beyond the confines of scholarly articles, the literature surrounding this enigma extends to a myriad of non-fiction works. "Fumes and Felonies: A Compendium of Air Pollution-Related Crime Stories" chronicles bizarre narratives where carbon monoxide and criminal mischief collide in unimaginable ways, each tale as fantastical as a moose riding a unicycle. And let's not forget "The Air Murders: A Detective Novel Set in Polluted Peaks," a gripping crime thriller that weaves a narrative of intrigue, nefarious plots, and toxic gases that infiltrate the very essence of human behavior – a page-turner that's more gripping than a polar bear's handshake.

On the more creative side, the realm of fiction offers a bevy of imaginative musings that dance at the intersection of air pollution and aggression. From "The Smog Strangler: A Suspense Novel of Atmospheric Angst" to "Gases Gone Rogue: A Science-Fiction Odyssey into Polluted Planetary Puzzles," the literature landscape flirts with the surreal and the absurd, tempting readers with narratives as improbable as a caribou ballroom dancing.

And of course, in the age of digital discourse, social media has been abuzz with speculations and anecdotes that seem to hint at a connection between air pollution and criminal behavior. Whether it's a viral tweet attributing a surge in shoplifting to an uptick in ozone levels or a perplexing post on a neighborhood forum alleging that smog triggers impromptu dance battles, the anecdotes are as perplexing as a bear trying to solve a Rubik's cube.

As we navigate through this abstruse amalgamation of research, narratives, and digital whispers, the looming question persists: is there truly a link between air pollution and aggressive antics, or are we merely victim to a cloud of coincidences? The curious anecdotal accounts and whimsical narratives beckon us to explore this hazy conundrum with an open mind and a touch of levity, reminding us that the very air we breathe may hold secrets as enigmatic as the Alaskan wilderness itself.


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a researcher writing an academic paper.You draft the methodology section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the methodology section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Air pollution in Anchorage and Violent crime rates. Make lots of jokes, goofy observations, and puns.

Your research team collected data from all across the internet, but mostly just used information from Environmental Protection Agency and FBI Criminal Justice Information Services . You used data from 1985 to 2022

Make up the research methods you don't know. Make them a bit goofy and convoluted.

Here is the title, abstract, and introduction of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
The Perplexing Polution-People Paradox: Exploring the Link Between Air Pollution in Anchorage and Violent Crime Rates

[[ABSTRACT]]
Amidst the crisp Alaskan air, a cloud of inquiry hangs over the connection between air pollution and violent crime rates in Anchorage. This study dives deep into the data, mining for any signs of a smoggy influence on criminal behavior. Our research team delved into the Environmental Protection Agency's atmospheric archives and sifted through the FBI's Criminal Justice Information Services to corral the necessary data. Unveiling a correlation coefficient of 0.7081343 and a p-value smaller than a snowflake's footprint, our findings point to a robust association between air pollution levels and violent crime rates from 1985 to 2022.

Our findings serve as a breath of fresh, albeit slightly contaminated, air in the ongoing dialogue about the environmental impact on human behavior. Whether it's the toxic fumes fueling foul play or a mere atmospheric coincidence, this study sparks conversation and sets the stage for further scrutiny into the enigmatic intersection of air quality and aggressive antics.

[[INTRODUCTION]]
Ah, the idyllic expanse of Anchorage, where the northern lights dance in the celestial sky and the majestic moose roam freely, seemingly untouched by the urban trappings of a bustling city. Yet amidst the rugged beauty of this Alaskan metropolis, a seemingly paradoxical relationship between the quality of the air and the conduct of its inhabitants emerges. The snarling traffic, industrial emissions, and perhaps an occasional belching bear seem to converge in the curious confluence of air pollution and violent crime rates.
As the cityscape evolves, so too does the atmospheric milieu, presenting an opportune moment to investigate the tantalizing question: does the quality of the air we breathe have any influence on the likelihood of less-than-law-abiding behavior? It is this enigmatic intersection that our research team has sought to unravel, armed with statistical analyses sharper than a polar bear's teeth.
In this study, we explore the potential link between air pollution levels and violent crime rates in Anchorage, delving into the depths of data like intrepid explorers traversing the Alaskan wilderness. We scrutinize the murky plumes that cloak the city and the impact they may have on the propensities of its denizens, all with a twinkle in our eyes and a dose of humor that's icier than a glacier.
So buckle up, dear readers, as we embark on a journey through the labyrinth of statistical models, investigative insights, and a dash of whimsy – all in pursuit of unraveling the perplexing "Polution-People Paradox" that leaves us pondering the unseen forces shaping our behavior.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[METHODOLOGY]]



ChatGPT:

[[METHODOLOGY]]

In this research, we sought to untangle the web of pollutants and peccadillos, navigating the rocky terrain of data collection and analysis with the dexterity of a bear catching salmon. Our approach combined the finesse of a trapeze artist and the dogged determination of an Iditarod sled dog, as we ventured into the digital hinterlands of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the FBI's Criminal Justice Information Services (CJIS) to wrangle the requisite information.

Data Acquisition:
Our intrepid foray commenced with the procurement of air quality data from the EPA's comprehensive repository, where we gathered information about the levels of particulate matter, ozone, nitrogen dioxide, and other atmospheric alchemies that flirt with the boundaries of legality. To complement this aerial escapade, we harnessed the crime data from CJIS, capturing a gambol of felonious activity: from misdemeanors that barely raised an eyebrow to felonies that sent shockwaves through the tundra.

Data Synthesis:
With our treasure trove of data in hand, we concocted a statistical stew with a sprinkle of regression analyses, a dash of time series modeling, and a pinch of spatial econometrics, blending our datasets into a concoction as potent as a shot of aurora borealis. The aim was not just to concoct correlations, but to disentangle causations with a precision honed sharper than a husky's howl.

Temporal Analysis:
Our journey through the temporal tapestry of data unfolded like a firework display, illuminating the trends and patterns that danced across the timeline from 1985 to 2022. As we traversed the corridors of time, we kept our eyes peeled for any synchronicities between the ebb and flow of air pollutants and the undulations of criminal activity, uncovering insights as colorful as the Northern Lights themselves.

Spatial Analysis:
To add a touch of geographic pizzazz to our investigation, we employed spatial analyses akin to mapping the meandering migratory paths of caribou. This spatial perspective allowed us to peek beneath the surface of Anchorage and discern whether certain neighborhoods were beset by a miasma of pollutants and a resurgence of unlawful exploits, like a tryst between fog and felony.

Statistical Validation:
Our statistical odyssey concluded with a rigorous validation process, ensuring that our findings were as steadfast as a moose in the midst of a blizzard. We probed the correlation coefficients and p-values with the tenacity of a grizzly tracking its prey, ensuring that our results weren't mere statistical fluff but robust and resilient in the face of scrutiny.

By threading these disparate methods into a cohesive narrative, we endeavored to shed light on the enigmatic connection between air pollution and violent crime rates in Anchorage, all with a wink and a nod to the capricious nature of empirical inquiry.


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a researcher writing an academic paper.You draft the results section of an academic research paper. You speak in the past tense (you found...).
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the results section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Air pollution in Anchorage and Violent crime rates. Make lots of jokes, goofy observations, and puns.

Your research team collected data from all across the internet, but mostly just used information from Environmental Protection Agency and FBI Criminal Justice Information Services .

For the time period 1985 to 2022, you found a correlation 0.7081343, r-squared of 0.5014542, and p < 0.01.

One figure will be included. The figure (Fig. 1) is a scatterplot showing the strong correlation between the two variables. You don't need to specify where; I will add the figure.

Here is the title and abstract of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
The Perplexing Polution-People Paradox: Exploring the Link Between Air Pollution in Anchorage and Violent Crime Rates

[[ABSTRACT]]
Amidst the crisp Alaskan air, a cloud of inquiry hangs over the connection between air pollution and violent crime rates in Anchorage. This study dives deep into the data, mining for any signs of a smoggy influence on criminal behavior. Our research team delved into the Environmental Protection Agency's atmospheric archives and sifted through the FBI's Criminal Justice Information Services to corral the necessary data. Unveiling a correlation coefficient of 0.7081343 and a p-value smaller than a snowflake's footprint, our findings point to a robust association between air pollution levels and violent crime rates from 1985 to 2022.

Our findings serve as a breath of fresh, albeit slightly contaminated, air in the ongoing dialogue about the environmental impact on human behavior. Whether it's the toxic fumes fueling foul play or a mere atmospheric coincidence, this study sparks conversation and sets the stage for further scrutiny into the enigmatic intersection of air quality and aggressive antics.

-------

And here is the methodology section that led to this result:
[[METHODOLOGY]]
Ah, the idyllic expanse of Anchorage, where the northern lights dance in the celestial sky and the majestic moose roam freely, seemingly untouched by the urban trappings of a bustling city. Yet amidst the rugged beauty of this Alaskan metropolis, a seemingly paradoxical relationship between the quality of the air and the conduct of its inhabitants emerges. The snarling traffic, industrial emissions, and perhaps an occasional belching bear seem to converge in the curious confluence of air pollution and violent crime rates.
As the cityscape evolves, so too does the atmospheric milieu, presenting an opportune moment to investigate the tantalizing question: does the quality of the air we breathe have any influence on the likelihood of less-than-law-abiding behavior? It is this enigmatic intersection that our research team has sought to unravel, armed with statistical analyses sharper than a polar bear's teeth.
In this study, we explore the potential link between air pollution levels and violent crime rates in Anchorage, delving into the depths of data like intrepid explorers traversing the Alaskan wilderness. We scrutinize the murky plumes that cloak the city and the impact they may have on the propensities of its denizens, all with a twinkle in our eyes and a dose of humor that's icier than a glacier.
So buckle up, dear readers, as we embark on a journey through the labyrinth of statistical models, investigative insights, and a dash of whimsy – all in pursuit of unraveling the perplexing "Polution-People Paradox" that leaves us pondering the unseen forces shaping our behavior.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[RESULTS]]



ChatGPT:

[[RESULTS]]

The statistical analyses concocted by our intrepid team have uncovered a correlation coefficient of 0.7081343, an r-squared of 0.5014542, and a p-value smaller than an Arctic hairline crack in the ice. The data we've painstakingly gathered and analyzed from 1985 to 2022 reveal a relationship between air pollution levels and violent crime rates in Anchorage that's as clear as an aurora borealis on a crisp winter night.

In Fig. 1, our scatterplot captures the strong connection between air pollution levels and violent crime rates, illustrating a pattern more distinct than a moose in a downtown alley. This visual representation provides a powerful snapshot of the intertwined dance between polluted air and brusque behavior in the Last Frontier.

The findings of our study serve as a breath of fresh, albeit slightly smog-laden, air in the ongoing discourse about the environmental influences on human conduct. Whether it's the toxic fumes fueling foul play or a mere atmospheric coincidence, our research sparks conversation and sets the stage for further shenanigans – I mean, scrutiny into the enigmatic nexus of air quality and aggressive antics.


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a researcher writing an academic paper.You draft the discussion section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the discussion section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Air pollution in Anchorage and Violent crime rates. Make lots of jokes, goofy observations, and puns.

Limit your response to 500 tokens.

Here are the title, abstract, literature review, and results sections. Please harken back to 1-2 of the goofy items in the literature review, but pretend to take them completely seriously. Discuss how your results supported the prior research.

Do not write a conclusion. I will add a conclusion after this.

[[TITLE]]
The Perplexing Polution-People Paradox: Exploring the Link Between Air Pollution in Anchorage and Violent Crime Rates

[[ABSTRACT]]
Amidst the crisp Alaskan air, a cloud of inquiry hangs over the connection between air pollution and violent crime rates in Anchorage. This study dives deep into the data, mining for any signs of a smoggy influence on criminal behavior. Our research team delved into the Environmental Protection Agency's atmospheric archives and sifted through the FBI's Criminal Justice Information Services to corral the necessary data. Unveiling a correlation coefficient of 0.7081343 and a p-value smaller than a snowflake's footprint, our findings point to a robust association between air pollution levels and violent crime rates from 1985 to 2022.

Our findings serve as a breath of fresh, albeit slightly contaminated, air in the ongoing dialogue about the environmental impact on human behavior. Whether it's the toxic fumes fueling foul play or a mere atmospheric coincidence, this study sparks conversation and sets the stage for further scrutiny into the enigmatic intersection of air quality and aggressive antics.

[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]
Several studies have sought to uncover the mysterious relationship between air pollution and criminal behavior, shedding light on the hazy clouds that cloak this perplexing paradox. Smith et al. (2015) conducted a comprehensive analysis examining air quality metrics and crime data, unearthing correlations as intriguing as an elusive aurora borealis. Similarly, Doe and Jones (2018) delved into the depths of atmospheric chemistry and crime statistics, unraveling a web of intricacies that rival the convoluted pathways of a glacier.
In "Air Quality and Crime: A Statistical Analysis," the authors find that higher levels of particulate matter are associated with an uptick in aggravated assaults and vandalism, painting a bleak, albeit smudged, picture of the impact of air pollution on criminal conduct. In "Toxic Tendencies: The Surprising Influence of Air Pollutants on Human Aggression," the authors present compelling evidence linking elevated levels of nitrogen dioxide to an increase in petty theft and public disturbances, leaving readers breathless with astonishment – or perhaps due to the airborne toxicity.
Venturing beyond the confines of scholarly articles, the literature surrounding this enigma extends to a myriad of non-fiction works. "Fumes and Felonies: A Compendium of Air Pollution-Related Crime Stories" chronicles bizarre narratives where carbon monoxide and criminal mischief collide in unimaginable ways, each tale as fantastical as a moose riding a unicycle. And let's not forget "The Air Murders: A Detective Novel Set in Polluted Peaks," a gripping crime thriller that weaves a narrative of intrigue, nefarious plots, and toxic gases that infiltrate the very essence of human behavior – a page-turner that's more gripping than a polar bear's handshake.
On the more creative side, the realm of fiction offers a bevy of imaginative musings that dance at the intersection of air pollution and aggression. From "The Smog Strangler: A Suspense Novel of Atmospheric Angst" to "Gases Gone Rogue: A Science-Fiction Odyssey into Polluted Planetary Puzzles," the literature landscape flirts with the surreal and the absurd, tempting readers with narratives as improbable as a caribou ballroom dancing.
And of course, in the age of digital discourse, social media has been abuzz with speculations and anecdotes that seem to hint at a connection between air pollution and criminal behavior. Whether it's a viral tweet attributing a surge in shoplifting to an uptick in ozone levels or a perplexing post on a neighborhood forum alleging that smog triggers impromptu dance battles, the anecdotes are as perplexing as a bear trying to solve a Rubik's cube.
As we navigate through this abstruse amalgamation of research, narratives, and digital whispers, the looming question persists: is there truly a link between air pollution and aggressive antics, or are we merely victim to a cloud of coincidences? The curious anecdotal accounts and whimsical narratives beckon us to explore this hazy conundrum with an open mind and a touch of levity, reminding us that the very air we breathe may hold secrets as enigmatic as the Alaskan wilderness itself.

[[RESULTS]]
The statistical analyses concocted by our intrepid team have uncovered a correlation coefficient of 0.7081343, an r-squared of 0.5014542, and a p-value smaller than an Arctic hairline crack in the ice. The data we've painstakingly gathered and analyzed from 1985 to 2022 reveal a relationship between air pollution levels and violent crime rates in Anchorage that's as clear as an aurora borealis on a crisp winter night.
In Fig. 1, our scatterplot captures the strong connection between air pollution levels and violent crime rates, illustrating a pattern more distinct than a moose in a downtown alley. This visual representation provides a powerful snapshot of the intertwined dance between polluted air and brusque behavior in the Last Frontier.
The findings of our study serve as a breath of fresh, albeit slightly smog-laden, air in the ongoing discourse about the environmental influences on human conduct. Whether it's the toxic fumes fueling foul play or a mere atmospheric coincidence, our research sparks conversation and sets the stage for further shenanigans – I mean, scrutiny into the enigmatic nexus of air quality and aggressive antics.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[DISCUSSION]]



ChatGPT:

[[DISCUSSION]]

Our study has waded into the murky depths of Alaskan air and violent crime, unearthing a correlation between air pollution and aggressive antics that's about as subtle as a bear in a berry patch. The statistical results we've mustered up are more than mere statistical jiggery-pokery – they significantly corroborate previous research, adding a dash of credibility to the questionable laundry list of air pollution shenanigans.

Now, let's circle back to some of the goofier items dredged up in our literature review – and yes, we're taking them seriously! Smith et al. (2015) and Doe and Jones (2018) may have sounded like they stumbled into a whimsical wonderland of air pollution and crime, but their findings are as legitimate as the elusive aurora borealis. We're not just dealing with fantastical fiction here – we're delving into the convoluted pathways of real-world statistics and smoggy behaviors.

The visual aid from our study, Fig. 1, isn't just a pretty picture – it's a glimpse into the intertwined dance between polluted air and peevish behavior in the Last Frontier. This snapshot is more telling than a moose navigating a city street at rush hour.

But let's not rest on our laurels; our findings beckon for further exploration and scrutiny, setting the stage for more curious tales of atmospheric influence on human conduct. Are the toxic fumes truly fueling foul play, or is it all just a hazy coincidence? Our research has dramatically elevated the discourse, breathing fresh air – albeit slightly smog-laden – into the dialogue about environmental impacts on human behavior.

As we mull over these findings, let's remember that this study isn't just about statistically significant numbers, but also about how the air we breathe may hold secrets as enigmatic as the Alaskan wilderness itself. It's a strange, smoggy world out there, and our research has only cracked open the window to this befuddling nexus of air quality and aggressive antics.


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a researcher writing an academic paper.You draft the discussion section of goofy academic research papers that sounds like it belongs based on the title and abstract provided.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up a short conclusion of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Air pollution in Anchorage and Violent crime rates. Make lots of jokes, goofy observations, and puns.

Limit your response to 300 tokens. At the very end, assert that no more research is needed in this area.

Here are the title, abstract, introduction, and results sections.
[[TITLE]]
The Perplexing Polution-People Paradox: Exploring the Link Between Air Pollution in Anchorage and Violent Crime Rates

[[ABSTRACT]]
Amidst the crisp Alaskan air, a cloud of inquiry hangs over the connection between air pollution and violent crime rates in Anchorage. This study dives deep into the data, mining for any signs of a smoggy influence on criminal behavior. Our research team delved into the Environmental Protection Agency's atmospheric archives and sifted through the FBI's Criminal Justice Information Services to corral the necessary data. Unveiling a correlation coefficient of 0.7081343 and a p-value smaller than a snowflake's footprint, our findings point to a robust association between air pollution levels and violent crime rates from 1985 to 2022.

Our findings serve as a breath of fresh, albeit slightly contaminated, air in the ongoing dialogue about the environmental impact on human behavior. Whether it's the toxic fumes fueling foul play or a mere atmospheric coincidence, this study sparks conversation and sets the stage for further scrutiny into the enigmatic intersection of air quality and aggressive antics.

[[INTRDUCTION]]
Ah, the idyllic expanse of Anchorage, where the northern lights dance in the celestial sky and the majestic moose roam freely, seemingly untouched by the urban trappings of a bustling city. Yet amidst the rugged beauty of this Alaskan metropolis, a seemingly paradoxical relationship between the quality of the air and the conduct of its inhabitants emerges. The snarling traffic, industrial emissions, and perhaps an occasional belching bear seem to converge in the curious confluence of air pollution and violent crime rates.
As the cityscape evolves, so too does the atmospheric milieu, presenting an opportune moment to investigate the tantalizing question: does the quality of the air we breathe have any influence on the likelihood of less-than-law-abiding behavior? It is this enigmatic intersection that our research team has sought to unravel, armed with statistical analyses sharper than a polar bear's teeth.
In this study, we explore the potential link between air pollution levels and violent crime rates in Anchorage, delving into the depths of data like intrepid explorers traversing the Alaskan wilderness. We scrutinize the murky plumes that cloak the city and the impact they may have on the propensities of its denizens, all with a twinkle in our eyes and a dose of humor that's icier than a glacier.
So buckle up, dear readers, as we embark on a journey through the labyrinth of statistical models, investigative insights, and a dash of whimsy – all in pursuit of unraveling the perplexing "Polution-People Paradox" that leaves us pondering the unseen forces shaping our behavior.

[[RESULTS]]
The statistical analyses concocted by our intrepid team have uncovered a correlation coefficient of 0.7081343, an r-squared of 0.5014542, and a p-value smaller than an Arctic hairline crack in the ice. The data we've painstakingly gathered and analyzed from 1985 to 2022 reveal a relationship between air pollution levels and violent crime rates in Anchorage that's as clear as an aurora borealis on a crisp winter night.
In Fig. 1, our scatterplot captures the strong connection between air pollution levels and violent crime rates, illustrating a pattern more distinct than a moose in a downtown alley. This visual representation provides a powerful snapshot of the intertwined dance between polluted air and brusque behavior in the Last Frontier.
The findings of our study serve as a breath of fresh, albeit slightly smog-laden, air in the ongoing discourse about the environmental influences on human conduct. Whether it's the toxic fumes fueling foul play or a mere atmospheric coincidence, our research sparks conversation and sets the stage for further shenanigans – I mean, scrutiny into the enigmatic nexus of air quality and aggressive antics.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[CONCLUSION]]



ChatGPT:

[[CONCLUSION]]

In conclusion, after wading through the data like a penguin navigating an icy pond, our study sheds light on the intriguing link between air pollution and violent crime rates in Anchorage. It's clear as the snow on Mount McKinley that the quality of the air has a palpable impact on the city's behavioral landscape. This finding is more illuminating than a flashlight in a polar night, and it leaves us pondering the atmospheric alchemy that influences human behavior.

Our research unravels this "Polution-People Paradox," showcasing a correlation coefficient so robust, it can lift a sled of sledding huskies. The statistical significance we've unearthed is stronger than a moose's antlers, firmly establishing the shadow of air pollution looming over the propensity for aggressive antics in Anchorage.

As we wrap up this odyssey through the statistical tundra, we can confidently say that the relationship between air quality and violent behavior is no joke. The evidence is more concrete than an igloo, and the implications are as weighty as a well-fed walrus.

In closing, our findings call for a breath of fresh – and significantly less polluted – air in the ongoing discourse on environmental influences. It's time we clear the air and acknowledge that the smog of crime is more than just a foggy notion. And with that, it's safe to assert that no further research is needed in this area – we've cracked this case wider than a crevasse on a glacier.


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide fictional names of academic journals. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide the name of a funny but plausible sounding research, scientific, or academic journal that would publish a paper entited The Perplexing Polution-People Paradox: Exploring the Link Between Air Pollution in Anchorage and Violent Crime Rates. Respond only with the name of a fictional academic journal.

ChatGPT:

The Journal of Ecological Criminology and Atmospheric Studies


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide fictional names of nonprofit research organizations and associations. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide the name of a funny but plausible sounding nonprofit, academic, or scientific association or organization that would sponsor research that resulted in a paper entited The Perplexing Polution-People Paradox: Exploring the Link Between Air Pollution in Anchorage and Violent Crime Rates. Respond only with the name of a fictional organization.

ChatGPT:

The Institute for Environmental Psychology and Public Safety


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide potential search keywords separated by commas. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide potential search keywords for a paper titled The Perplexing Polution-People Paradox: Exploring the Link Between Air Pollution in Anchorage and Violent Crime Rates with an abstract of Amidst the crisp Alaskan air, a cloud of inquiry hangs over the connection between air pollution and violent crime rates in Anchorage. This study dives deep into the data, mining for any signs of a smoggy influence on criminal behavior. Our research team delved into the Environmental Protection Agency's atmospheric archives and sifted through the FBI's Criminal Justice Information Services to corral the necessary data. Unveiling a correlation coefficient of 0.7081343 and a p-value smaller than a snowflake's footprint, our findings point to a robust association between air pollution levels and violent crime rates from 1985 to 2022.
Our findings serve as a breath of fresh, albeit slightly contaminated, air in the ongoing dialogue about the environmental impact on human behavior. Whether it's the toxic fumes fueling foul play or a mere atmospheric coincidence, this study sparks conversation and sets the stage for further scrutiny into the enigmatic intersection of air quality and aggressive antics.

ChatGPT:

air pollution, violent crime rates, Anchorage, Alaskan air, Environmental Protection Agency, atmospheric archives, FBI Criminal Justice Information Services, correlation coefficient, p-value, environmental impact, human behavior, air quality, aggressive behavior

*There is a bunch of Python happening behind the scenes to turn this prompt sequence into a PDF.



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Data details

Air pollution in Anchorage
Detailed data title: Percentage of days with moderate or worse air quality in Anchorage, AK
Source: Environmental Protection Agency
See what else correlates with Air pollution in Anchorage

Violent crime rates
Detailed data title: The violent crime rate per 100,000 residents in United States
Source: FBI Criminal Justice Information Services
See what else correlates with Violent crime rates

Correlation r = 0.7081343 (Pearson correlation coefficient)
Correlation is a measure of how much the variables move together. If it is 0.99, when one goes up the other goes up. If it is 0.02, the connection is very weak or non-existent. If it is -0.99, then when one goes up the other goes down. If it is 1.00, you probably messed up your correlation function.

r2 = 0.5014542 (Coefficient of determination)
This means 50.1% of the change in the one variable (i.e., Violent crime rates) is predictable based on the change in the other (i.e., Air pollution in Anchorage) over the 38 years from 1985 through 2022.

p < 0.01, which is statistically significant(Null hypothesis significance test)
The p-value is 6.6E-7. 0.0000006585886403811582000000
The p-value is a measure of how probable it is that we would randomly find a result this extreme. More specifically the p-value is a measure of how probable it is that we would randomly find a result this extreme if we had only tested one pair of variables one time.

But I am a p-villain. I absolutely did not test only one pair of variables one time. I correlated hundreds of millions of pairs of variables. I threw boatloads of data into an industrial-sized blender to find this correlation.

Who is going to stop me? p-value reporting doesn't require me to report how many calculations I had to go through in order to find a low p-value!
On average, you will find a correaltion as strong as 0.71 in 6.6E-5% of random cases. Said differently, if you correlated 1,518,398 random variables You don't actually need 1 million variables to find a correlation like this one. I don't have that many variables in my database. You can also correlate variables that are not independent. I do this a lot.

p-value calculations are useful for understanding the probability of a result happening by chance. They are most useful when used to highlight the risk of a fluke outcome. For example, if you calculate a p-value of 0.30, the risk that the result is a fluke is high. It is good to know that! But there are lots of ways to get a p-value of less than 0.01, as evidenced by this project.

In this particular case, the values are so extreme as to be meaningless. That's why no one reports p-values with specificity after they drop below 0.01.

Just to be clear: I'm being completely transparent about the calculations. There is no math trickery. This is just how statistics shakes out when you calculate hundreds of millions of random correlations.
with the same 37 degrees of freedom, Degrees of freedom is a measure of how many free components we are testing. In this case it is 37 because we have two variables measured over a period of 38 years. It's just the number of years minus ( the number of variables minus one ), which in this case simplifies to the number of years minus one.
you would randomly expect to find a correlation as strong as this one.

[ 0.5, 0.84 ] 95% correlation confidence interval (using the Fisher z-transformation)
The confidence interval is an estimate the range of the value of the correlation coefficient, using the correlation itself as an input. The values are meant to be the low and high end of the correlation coefficient with 95% confidence.

This one is a bit more complciated than the other calculations, but I include it because many people have been pushing for confidence intervals instead of p-value calculations (for example: NEJM. However, if you are dredging data, you can reliably find yourself in the 5%. That's my goal!


All values for the years included above: If I were being very sneaky, I could trim years from the beginning or end of the datasets to increase the correlation on some pairs of variables. I don't do that because there are already plenty of correlations in my database without monkeying with the years.

Still, sometimes one of the variables has more years of data available than the other. This page only shows the overlapping years. To see all the years, click on "See what else correlates with..." link above.
19851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022
Air pollution in Anchorage (Bad air quality days)37.534245.479539.655239.452137.543.250741.758251.923140.055236.740332.506935.042726.111127.900623.322715.73772017.763213.87113.029316.831716.233811.290311.538522.86521.369923.287730.327922.191832.602727.671231.420821.643819.72628.219210.92919.72616.7123
Violent crime rates (Violent crime)558.1620.1612.5640.6666.9729.6758.2757.7747.1713.6684.5636.6611567.6523506.5504.5494.4475.8463.2469479.3471.8458.6431.9404.5387.1387.8369.1361.6373.7397.5394.9383.4380.8398.5387380.7




Why this works

  1. Data dredging: I have 25,153 variables in my database. I compare all these variables against each other to find ones that randomly match up. That's 632,673,409 correlation calculations! This is called “data dredging.” Instead of starting with a hypothesis and testing it, I instead abused the data to see what correlations shake out. It’s a dangerous way to go about analysis, because any sufficiently large dataset will yield strong correlations completely at random.
  2. Lack of causal connection: There is probably Because these pages are automatically generated, it's possible that the two variables you are viewing are in fact causually related. I take steps to prevent the obvious ones from showing on the site (I don't let data about the weather in one city correlate with the weather in a neighboring city, for example), but sometimes they still pop up. If they are related, cool! You found a loophole.
    no direct connection between these variables, despite what the AI says above. This is exacerbated by the fact that I used "Years" as the base variable. Lots of things happen in a year that are not related to each other! Most studies would use something like "one person" in stead of "one year" to be the "thing" studied.
  3. Observations not independent: For many variables, sequential years are not independent of each other. If a population of people is continuously doing something every day, there is no reason to think they would suddenly change how they are doing that thing on January 1. A simple Personally I don't find any p-value calculation to be 'simple,' but you know what I mean.
    p-value calculation does not take this into account, so mathematically it appears less probable than it really is.




Try it yourself

You can calculate the values on this page on your own! Try running the Python code to see the calculation results. Step 1: Download and install Python on your computer.

Step 2: Open a plaintext editor like Notepad and paste the code below into it.

Step 3: Save the file as "calculate_correlation.py" in a place you will remember, like your desktop. Copy the file location to your clipboard. On Windows, you can right-click the file and click "Properties," and then copy what comes after "Location:" As an example, on my computer the location is "C:\Users\tyler\Desktop"

Step 4: Open a command line window. For example, by pressing start and typing "cmd" and them pressing enter.

Step 5: Install the required modules by typing "pip install numpy", then pressing enter, then typing "pip install scipy", then pressing enter.

Step 6: Navigate to the location where you saved the Python file by using the "cd" command. For example, I would type "cd C:\Users\tyler\Desktop" and push enter.

Step 7: Run the Python script by typing "python calculate_correlation.py"

If you run into any issues, I suggest asking ChatGPT to walk you through installing Python and running the code below on your system. Try this question:

"Walk me through installing Python on my computer to run a script that uses scipy and numpy. Go step-by-step and ask me to confirm before moving on. Start by asking me questions about my operating system so that you know how to proceed. Assume I want the simplest installation with the latest version of Python and that I do not currently have any of the necessary elements installed. Remember to only give me one step per response and confirm I have done it before proceeding."


# These modules make it easier to perform the calculation
import numpy as np
from scipy import stats

# We'll define a function that we can call to return the correlation calculations
def calculate_correlation(array1, array2):

    # Calculate Pearson correlation coefficient and p-value
    correlation, p_value = stats.pearsonr(array1, array2)

    # Calculate R-squared as the square of the correlation coefficient
    r_squared = correlation**2

    return correlation, r_squared, p_value

# These are the arrays for the variables shown on this page, but you can modify them to be any two sets of numbers
array_1 = np.array([37.5342,45.4795,39.6552,39.4521,37.5,43.2507,41.7582,51.9231,40.0552,36.7403,32.5069,35.0427,26.1111,27.9006,23.3227,15.7377,20,17.7632,13.871,13.0293,16.8317,16.2338,11.2903,11.5385,22.865,21.3699,23.2877,30.3279,22.1918,32.6027,27.6712,31.4208,21.6438,19.726,28.2192,10.929,19.726,16.7123,])
array_2 = np.array([558.1,620.1,612.5,640.6,666.9,729.6,758.2,757.7,747.1,713.6,684.5,636.6,611,567.6,523,506.5,504.5,494.4,475.8,463.2,469,479.3,471.8,458.6,431.9,404.5,387.1,387.8,369.1,361.6,373.7,397.5,394.9,383.4,380.8,398.5,387,380.7,])
array_1_name = "Air pollution in Anchorage"
array_2_name = "Violent crime rates"

# Perform the calculation
print(f"Calculating the correlation between {array_1_name} and {array_2_name}...")
correlation, r_squared, p_value = calculate_correlation(array_1, array_2)

# Print the results
print("Correlation Coefficient:", correlation)
print("R-squared:", r_squared)
print("P-value:", p_value)



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Correlation ID: 2850 · Black Variable ID: 20265 · Red Variable ID: 20220
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