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AI explanation
As Neptune cozied up to the Sun, the god of the sea must have decided to take up a new hobby: firefighting. With his trident in hand, he made sure to extinguish any spark before it could turn into a blaze. After all, you could say he's a real...neptoon when it comes to fire safety.
Model: dalle-3
Prompt: Create a photo-realistic image of Neptune, the icy blue planet, slowly approaching the sun. The icy blue hue of Neptune contrasts with the warm glow of the sun, creating a serene yet powerful visual. As Neptune draws nearer, its ethereal chill extends towards Earth, calming the fiery scenes in Washington. The flames of arson flicker, but gradually diminish as if being gently subdued by the distant yet potent influence of the approaching planet. The depiction should include only scenes, people, and objects, it should not include text or speech bubbles.
This image generation prompt was also generated by AI, using the following sequence:
Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You select one of a few potential scene descriptors that seems to go along with the variables described. You respond only with the scene descriptions provided and say nothing else.
User prompt: Here are two variables: The distance between Neptune and the Sun and Arson in Washington. Given these, which of the following image style descriptions seems most appropriate? Pick the one that seems to be related to one of the variables at hand. Please respond with only one of the following potential descriptions: Brutalism Macabre Cutsy graphics A photo-realistic image 3D Pixar Style
ChatGPT: A photo-realistic image
Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You describe simple visual scenes that depict the two variables stated. You combine both variables into one scene.
User prompt: Please describe a visual scene that prominently depicts both The distance between Neptune and the Sun and Arson in Washington, in the following situation: As Neptune moved closer, its frigid, icy vibe reached Earth, cooling down hot-headed individuals and extinguishing the urge to start fires for a while. The reduced distance must have really dampened the flames of arson in Washington!. Keep the description simple.
ChatGPT: Neptune, the icy blue planet, glided closer to the Sun. Its chill reached Earth, cooling the hot tempers of individuals. In Washington, the flames of arson flickered, but as Neptune neared, they dwindled, as if dampened by the planet's influence.
Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You write and improve image generation prompts for DALLE-3. You maintain the same subjects, but enhance the visuals.
User prompt: Please respond with an image generation prompt that would be likely to create an interesting visual using DALLE-3, using the following style: [ A photo-realistic image ] and depicting this scene: Neptune, the icy blue planet, glided closer to the Sun. Its chill reached Earth, cooling the hot tempers of individuals. In Washington, the flames of arson flickered, but as Neptune neared, they dwindled, as if dampened by the planet's influence. Keep the visual depiction simple. Do not include any words or speech bubbles.
ChatGPT: Create a photo-realistic image of Neptune, the icy blue planet, slowly approaching the sun. The icy blue hue of Neptune contrasts with the warm glow of the sun, creating a serene yet powerful visual. As Neptune draws nearer, its ethereal chill extends towards Earth, calming the fiery scenes in Washington. The flames of arson flicker, but gradually diminish as if being gently subdued by the distant yet potent influence of the approaching planet.
*Variations in the User Prompts from chart to chart are just the result of random number generation in Python. I wrote a few arrays of various styles and methods to ask questions to change up the results. Every time this site writes an explanation or generates an image, the script picks from each at random.
I sequence the requests into multiple prompts because I find GPT 3.5 to perform much better with short, well-managed contexts. Thus, I track the context directly in Python and only ask ChatGPT targeted questions.
System prompt: You provide humorous responses in the form of plausible sounding explanations for correlations. You assume the correlation is causative for the purpose of the explanation even if it is ridiculous. You do not chat with the user, you only reply with the causal connection explanation and nothing else.
User prompt: Please make up a funny explanation for how a decrease in The distance between Neptune and the Sun caused Arson in Washington to decrease.
AI academic paper
 |
Out of This World Connections: Exploring the Solar System's Influence on Arson Rates in Washington State The Interstellar Journal of Criminology Jan 2024 Reminder: This paper is AI-generated. Not real! |
Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a silly researcher writing an academic paper.You write titles and abstracts of goofy academic research papers.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, and add unexpected twists in your writing.
Please draft the title and abstract of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between The distance between Neptune and the Sun and Arson in Washington. Make lots of jokes, goofy observations, and puns.
Make the title punny if you can come up with clever pun. If not, just make it sound clever.
Your research team used data from Caclculated using Astropy and FBI Criminal Justice Information Services to assess this nagging question. You found a correlation coefficient of 0.9329921 and p < 0.01 for 1985 to 2022.
Please respond in this format (replace "Lorem ipsum dolor sit" with your title and abstract)
[[TITLE]]
Lorem ipsum dolor sit
[[ABSTRACT]]
Lorem ipsum dolor sit
ChatGPT:
[[TITLE]]
"Out of This World Connections: Exploring the Solar System's Influence on Arson Rates in Washington State"
[[ABSTRACT]]
The old saying may go "don't play with fire," but our research team decided to play with fire, or rather, with some astronomical data. In this study, we aimed to investigate the potential link between the distance of Neptune from the Sun and the incidence of arson in Washington State. Armed with data from Astropy and the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services, we crunched the numbers and were left astounded by the celestial dance we uncovered. Our findings revealed a correlation coefficient of 0.9329921, with a p-value less than 0.01 from 1985 to 2022. As we dive into the realm of astrological-forensic research, our results suggest that the celestial dance of Neptune and the Sun may have an unexpected influence on the fiery antics in the Evergreen State. Whether it's the gravitational pull or just some cosmic mischief, our study uncovers an astronomical twist to the age-old problem of arson. So next time you see a suspicious fire, remember to look up at the stars, for the truth may just be written in the heavens.
Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a silly researcher writing an academic paper.You draft the introduction section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.
Please make up the introduction section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between The distance between Neptune and the Sun and Arson in Washington. Make lots of jokes, goofy observations, and puns. Stay serious and dry most of the time, but then occasionally let your wit shine through.
Here is the title and abstract of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
"Out of This World Connections: Exploring the Solar System's Influence on Arson Rates in Washington State"
[[ABSTRACT]]
The old saying may go "don't play with fire," but our research team decided to play with fire, or rather, with some astronomical data. In this study, we aimed to investigate the potential link between the distance of Neptune from the Sun and the incidence of arson in Washington State. Armed with data from Astropy and the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services, we crunched the numbers and were left astounded by the celestial dance we uncovered. Our findings revealed a correlation coefficient of 0.9329921, with a p-value less than 0.01 from 1985 to 2022. As we dive into the realm of astrological-forensic research, our results suggest that the celestial dance of Neptune and the Sun may have an unexpected influence on the fiery antics in the Evergreen State. Whether it's the gravitational pull or just some cosmic mischief, our study uncovers an astronomical twist to the age-old problem of arson. So next time you see a suspicious fire, remember to look up at the stars, for the truth may just be written in the heavens.
-------
Your response should start like this:
[[INTRODUCTION]]
ChatGPT:
[[INTRODUCTION]]
As the old adage goes, "The stars are not afraid to appear like fire." Well, in our case, neither are we afraid to delve into the cosmic abyss to explore the enigmatic connection between celestial bodies and the earthly phenomenon of arson. In this era of interdisciplinary research, our team sought to transcend the conventional boundaries of investigation and embark on a celestial journey to unravel the secrets of arson in the Evergreen State.
The inspiration for our study emerged from the peculiar juxtaposition of two seemingly unrelated realms: the distant ice giant Neptune and the fiery transgressions of arson in Washington State. While one might initially dismiss the thought of these two entities sharing any semblance of association, the whimsical nature of our scholarly curiosity led us to uncover bizarre correlations that skeptics might assert were simply the fables of astromancy.
Armed with observational data from Astropy—our modern-day telescope to the stars—our aim was to discern whether the astronomical positioning of Neptune and its distance from the Sun could potentially exert a gravitational or cosmic influence on the prevalence of arson in the state of Washington. After all, who could resist the allure of exploring the celestial dances and their possible role in the earthly dramas of arson?
In this paper, we present the surprising findings from our investigation, which unearth a correlation that is as striking as a meteor shower in a clear night sky. So, fasten your seatbelts and attach your cosmic safety harnesses, as we prepare to navigate through the uncharted territories of astrological-forensic research, where monumental discoveries blend seamlessly with the perplexing cosmic mysteries. Let's embark on this cosmic caper and journey through the cosmic ballet of Neptune and the Sun to unravel the unexpected influence they may wield on the fiery antics in the Evergreen State. After all, it's not every day that one gets to ponder the interplay of celestial mechanics and human misdemeanors. As we delve into the depths of this celestial enigma, let's brace ourselves for a wild ride through the cosmos, where the truth behind arson in Washington State may just lie in the celestial choreography that we dared to explore.
Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a silly researcher writing an academic paper.You draft a literature review section of an academic research paper, that starts out dry for the first few sentences but then becomes hilarious and goofy.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.
Please make up a literature review section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between The distance between Neptune and the Sun and Arson in Washington. Make lots of jokes, goofy observations, and puns.
Speak in the present tense for this section (the authors find...), as is common in academic research paper literature reviews. Name the sources in a format similar to this: In "Book," the authors find lorem and ipsum.
Make up the lorem and ipsum part, but make it sound related to the topic at hand.
Start by naming serious-sounding studies by authors like Smith, Doe, and Jones - but then quickly devolve. Name some real non-fiction books that would be related to the topic. Then name some real fiction books that sound like they could be related. Then cite some social media posts you read that seem to be related.
Here is the title and abstract of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
"Out of This World Connections: Exploring the Solar System's Influence on Arson Rates in Washington State"
[[ABSTRACT]]
The old saying may go "don't play with fire," but our research team decided to play with fire, or rather, with some astronomical data. In this study, we aimed to investigate the potential link between the distance of Neptune from the Sun and the incidence of arson in Washington State. Armed with data from Astropy and the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services, we crunched the numbers and were left astounded by the celestial dance we uncovered. Our findings revealed a correlation coefficient of 0.9329921, with a p-value less than 0.01 from 1985 to 2022. As we dive into the realm of astrological-forensic research, our results suggest that the celestial dance of Neptune and the Sun may have an unexpected influence on the fiery antics in the Evergreen State. Whether it's the gravitational pull or just some cosmic mischief, our study uncovers an astronomical twist to the age-old problem of arson. So next time you see a suspicious fire, remember to look up at the stars, for the truth may just be written in the heavens.
-------
And here is the introduction section that led to this literature review:
[[INTRODUCTION]]
As the old adage goes, "The stars are not afraid to appear like fire." Well, in our case, neither are we afraid to delve into the cosmic abyss to explore the enigmatic connection between celestial bodies and the earthly phenomenon of arson. In this era of interdisciplinary research, our team sought to transcend the conventional boundaries of investigation and embark on a celestial journey to unravel the secrets of arson in the Evergreen State.
The inspiration for our study emerged from the peculiar juxtaposition of two seemingly unrelated realms: the distant ice giant Neptune and the fiery transgressions of arson in Washington State. While one might initially dismiss the thought of these two entities sharing any semblance of association, the whimsical nature of our scholarly curiosity led us to uncover bizarre correlations that skeptics might assert were simply the fables of astromancy.
Armed with observational data from Astropy—our modern-day telescope to the stars—our aim was to discern whether the astronomical positioning of Neptune and its distance from the Sun could potentially exert a gravitational or cosmic influence on the prevalence of arson in the state of Washington. After all, who could resist the allure of exploring the celestial dances and their possible role in the earthly dramas of arson?
In this paper, we present the surprising findings from our investigation, which unearth a correlation that is as striking as a meteor shower in a clear night sky. So, fasten your seatbelts and attach your cosmic safety harnesses, as we prepare to navigate through the uncharted territories of astrological-forensic research, where monumental discoveries blend seamlessly with the perplexing cosmic mysteries. Let's embark on this cosmic caper and journey through the cosmic ballet of Neptune and the Sun to unravel the unexpected influence they may wield on the fiery antics in the Evergreen State. After all, it's not every day that one gets to ponder the interplay of celestial mechanics and human misdemeanors. As we delve into the depths of this celestial enigma, let's brace ourselves for a wild ride through the cosmos, where the truth behind arson in Washington State may just lie in the celestial choreography that we dared to explore.
-------
Your response should start like this:
[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]
ChatGPT:
[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]
Research on the relationship between astronomical phenomena and earthly occurrences has spanned epochs, with scholars delving into the celestial influences on terrestrial events. Early studies by Smith and Doe (1998) and Jones (2005) primarily focused on the impact of lunar phases on human behavior, particularly in relation to criminal activities. While these studies offered insightful perspectives on the potential influence of celestial bodies, the subsequent literature presents a cosmic journey that will make you starry-eyed (pun intended).
Previous work has emphasized the importance of considering the broader cosmic context, where the interactions of planets may yield unforeseen implications for human conduct. In "Astronomy for Dummies," the authors briefly touch upon the speculative realm of astrological-forensic research, hinting at the untapped potential for uncovering astronomical correlates to human misdeeds. The notion of Neptune's ethereal influence on earthly phenomena is explored in "Neptune and the Mysteries of the Universe," where the authors delve into the captivating allure of the distant ice giant and its potential cosmic reverberations. While these sources may initially seem light-hearted, they metaphorically mirror the elusive nature of unraveling celestial influences.
Moving beyond the realm of non-fiction, fictional narratives have also grappled with the interplay of celestial entities and human behavior in ways that prompt a whimsical consideration of possible correlations. Works such as "The Arsonist's Guide to the Galaxy" and "Neptune's Fiery Dance" present cosmic plots that artfully intertwine the mysteries of arson with the cosmic ballet of the solar system. While these titles may seem fanciful, their thematic exploration invites an imaginative contemplation of the cosmic tapestry interwoven with human affairs.
Furthermore, the emergence of social media discussions has added a contemporary dimension to the discourse linking astronomical occurrences and earthly events. Sifting through Twitter threads and Facebook posts, it becomes evident that the popular imagination has also been captivated by the prospect of celestial influences on human conduct. Tweets like "When Neptune is in retrograde, the arson rates in Washington skyrocket! #CosmicConundrums" and Facebook status updates pondering, "Could Neptune's distance from the Sun be stirring up fiery mischief in the Pacific Northwest?" attest to the pervasive intrigue surrounding this unconventional nexus of cosmic and criminal inquiry.
In sum, while the literature initially delves into the serious exploration of astrological-forensic research, it strays into the cosmic comedic, beckoning researchers to embark on a cosmic caper to uncover the enigmatic relationship between the distance of Neptune from the Sun and the fiery antics of arson in Washington State.
Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a silly researcher writing an academic paper.You draft the methodology section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.
Please make up the methodology section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between The distance between Neptune and the Sun and Arson in Washington. Make lots of jokes, goofy observations, and puns. Stay serious and dry most of the time, but then occasionally let your wit shine through.
Your research team collected data from all across the internet, but mostly just used information from Caclculated using Astropy and FBI Criminal Justice Information Services . You used data from 1985 to 2022
Make up the research methods you don't know. Make them a bit goofy and convoluted.
Here is the title, abstract, and introduction of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
"Out of This World Connections: Exploring the Solar System's Influence on Arson Rates in Washington State"
[[ABSTRACT]]
The old saying may go "don't play with fire," but our research team decided to play with fire, or rather, with some astronomical data. In this study, we aimed to investigate the potential link between the distance of Neptune from the Sun and the incidence of arson in Washington State. Armed with data from Astropy and the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services, we crunched the numbers and were left astounded by the celestial dance we uncovered. Our findings revealed a correlation coefficient of 0.9329921, with a p-value less than 0.01 from 1985 to 2022. As we dive into the realm of astrological-forensic research, our results suggest that the celestial dance of Neptune and the Sun may have an unexpected influence on the fiery antics in the Evergreen State. Whether it's the gravitational pull or just some cosmic mischief, our study uncovers an astronomical twist to the age-old problem of arson. So next time you see a suspicious fire, remember to look up at the stars, for the truth may just be written in the heavens.
[[INTRODUCTION]]
As the old adage goes, "The stars are not afraid to appear like fire." Well, in our case, neither are we afraid to delve into the cosmic abyss to explore the enigmatic connection between celestial bodies and the earthly phenomenon of arson. In this era of interdisciplinary research, our team sought to transcend the conventional boundaries of investigation and embark on a celestial journey to unravel the secrets of arson in the Evergreen State.
The inspiration for our study emerged from the peculiar juxtaposition of two seemingly unrelated realms: the distant ice giant Neptune and the fiery transgressions of arson in Washington State. While one might initially dismiss the thought of these two entities sharing any semblance of association, the whimsical nature of our scholarly curiosity led us to uncover bizarre correlations that skeptics might assert were simply the fables of astromancy.
Armed with observational data from Astropy—our modern-day telescope to the stars—our aim was to discern whether the astronomical positioning of Neptune and its distance from the Sun could potentially exert a gravitational or cosmic influence on the prevalence of arson in the state of Washington. After all, who could resist the allure of exploring the celestial dances and their possible role in the earthly dramas of arson?
In this paper, we present the surprising findings from our investigation, which unearth a correlation that is as striking as a meteor shower in a clear night sky. So, fasten your seatbelts and attach your cosmic safety harnesses, as we prepare to navigate through the uncharted territories of astrological-forensic research, where monumental discoveries blend seamlessly with the perplexing cosmic mysteries. Let's embark on this cosmic caper and journey through the cosmic ballet of Neptune and the Sun to unravel the unexpected influence they may wield on the fiery antics in the Evergreen State. After all, it's not every day that one gets to ponder the interplay of celestial mechanics and human misdemeanors. As we delve into the depths of this celestial enigma, let's brace ourselves for a wild ride through the cosmos, where the truth behind arson in Washington State may just lie in the celestial choreography that we dared to explore.
-------
Your response should start like this:
[[METHODOLOGY]]
ChatGPT:
[[METHODOLOGY]]
To investigate the potential correlation between the distance of Neptune from the Sun and arson rates in Washington State, we employed a multidisciplinary approach that involved data collection, statistical analysis, and cosmic contemplation. Our research team scoured the depths of the internet, where we waded through a sea of information like brave sailors braving the cosmic waves. We primarily utilized data from Astropy, a powerful tool that allowed us to calculate the distance between Neptune and the Sun with precision akin to navigating a spaceship through a celestial obstacle course. Additionally, we relied on the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services to obtain meticulously documented records of arson incidents spanning the years 1985 to 2022. Remember, folks, when it comes to gathering data, we like to cast our nets far and wide to ensure we capture every cosmic nuance and earthly spark.
The first step in our methodological odyssey involved combing through the astral scriptures and the earthly annals to diligently gather data on the distance between Neptune and the Sun. Using the celestial arithmetic prowess of Astropy, we meticulously calculated the aforementioned distance down to the last astronomical unit, embracing the calculations with the same fervor shown by a mathematician solving a convoluted equation. Once we had these celestial coordinates in hand, we embarked on the statistical expedition, akin to navigating through the asteroid belts of data points, to analyze the incidence of arson in Washington State.
To scrutinize the potential relationship between Neptune's orbital distance and arson rates, we employed an arsenal of statistical tools such as correlation analysis, regression modeling, and trend extrapolation. Our statistical escapade involved the use of sophisticated software that operated with the precision of a cosmic clock, allowing us to discern patterns and relationships between these seemingly disparate cosmic and criminal phenomena. We carefully examined the data for any celestial signatures that might point to a gravitational pull or cosmic emanations influencing the ignition of fires in the state.
It is important to note that our data analysis approach was twofold: not only did we explore direct correlations between Neptune's distance from the Sun and arson rates in Washington State, but we also factored in potential confounding variables such as human population density, economic trends, and legislative changes affecting arson reporting and classification, as the cosmic tides of data analysis demand a breadth of consideration. In the cosmic symphony of statistical analysis, our goal was to distinguish the harmonic melodies of causation from the chaotic cacophony of chance.
Furthermore, to address the uncertainties and potential limitations of our celestial-criminal inquiry, we conducted sensitivity analyses and robustness checks. These analyses were akin to navigating a spacecraft through a meteor shower, as we maneuvered through various statistical scenarios and assumptions to ensure our findings were anchored in the realm of scientific rigor.
Lastly, in the spirit of scientific transparency, we conducted peer debriefings and discussions with experts from both the fields of astronomy and criminology to ascertain the plausibility and implications of our cosmic conjectures. These discussions not only served as intellectual compasses guiding us through the cosmic nebulae of our findings but also provided crucial insights into the interdisciplinary significance of our study.
In summation, our methodology encapsulates not only the rigorous calculation and analysis of celestial data but also the careful consideration of earthly factors, blending the abstract realm of the cosmos with the concrete realities of human behavior and law enforcement. As we prepare to reveal the cosmic revelations from our study, we extend our gratitude to all the statistical stars and cosmic compatriots who illuminated our path through the celestial darkness and the fiery enigmas of arson in Washington State.
Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a silly researcher writing an academic paper.You draft the results section of an academic research paper. You speak in the past tense (you found...).
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.
Please make up the results section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between The distance between Neptune and the Sun and Arson in Washington. Make lots of jokes, goofy observations, and puns. Stay serious and dry most of the time, but then occasionally let your wit shine through.
Your research team collected data from all across the internet, but mostly just used information from Caclculated using Astropy and FBI Criminal Justice Information Services .
For the time period 1985 to 2022, you found a correlation 0.9329921, r-squared of 0.8704743, and p < 0.01.
One figure will be included. The figure (Fig. 1) is a scatterplot showing the strong correlation between the two variables. You don't need to specify where; I will add the figure.
Here is the title and abstract of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
"Out of This World Connections: Exploring the Solar System's Influence on Arson Rates in Washington State"
[[ABSTRACT]]
The old saying may go "don't play with fire," but our research team decided to play with fire, or rather, with some astronomical data. In this study, we aimed to investigate the potential link between the distance of Neptune from the Sun and the incidence of arson in Washington State. Armed with data from Astropy and the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services, we crunched the numbers and were left astounded by the celestial dance we uncovered. Our findings revealed a correlation coefficient of 0.9329921, with a p-value less than 0.01 from 1985 to 2022. As we dive into the realm of astrological-forensic research, our results suggest that the celestial dance of Neptune and the Sun may have an unexpected influence on the fiery antics in the Evergreen State. Whether it's the gravitational pull or just some cosmic mischief, our study uncovers an astronomical twist to the age-old problem of arson. So next time you see a suspicious fire, remember to look up at the stars, for the truth may just be written in the heavens.
-------
And here is the methodology section that led to this result:
[[METHODOLOGY]]
As the old adage goes, "The stars are not afraid to appear like fire." Well, in our case, neither are we afraid to delve into the cosmic abyss to explore the enigmatic connection between celestial bodies and the earthly phenomenon of arson. In this era of interdisciplinary research, our team sought to transcend the conventional boundaries of investigation and embark on a celestial journey to unravel the secrets of arson in the Evergreen State.
The inspiration for our study emerged from the peculiar juxtaposition of two seemingly unrelated realms: the distant ice giant Neptune and the fiery transgressions of arson in Washington State. While one might initially dismiss the thought of these two entities sharing any semblance of association, the whimsical nature of our scholarly curiosity led us to uncover bizarre correlations that skeptics might assert were simply the fables of astromancy.
Armed with observational data from Astropy—our modern-day telescope to the stars—our aim was to discern whether the astronomical positioning of Neptune and its distance from the Sun could potentially exert a gravitational or cosmic influence on the prevalence of arson in the state of Washington. After all, who could resist the allure of exploring the celestial dances and their possible role in the earthly dramas of arson?
In this paper, we present the surprising findings from our investigation, which unearth a correlation that is as striking as a meteor shower in a clear night sky. So, fasten your seatbelts and attach your cosmic safety harnesses, as we prepare to navigate through the uncharted territories of astrological-forensic research, where monumental discoveries blend seamlessly with the perplexing cosmic mysteries. Let's embark on this cosmic caper and journey through the cosmic ballet of Neptune and the Sun to unravel the unexpected influence they may wield on the fiery antics in the Evergreen State. After all, it's not every day that one gets to ponder the interplay of celestial mechanics and human misdemeanors. As we delve into the depths of this celestial enigma, let's brace ourselves for a wild ride through the cosmos, where the truth behind arson in Washington State may just lie in the celestial choreography that we dared to explore.
-------
Your response should start like this:
[[RESULTS]]
ChatGPT:
[[RESULTS]]
The analysis of the data collected from 1985 to 2022 has revealed an astonishing correlation between the distance of Neptune from the Sun and the incidence of arson in Washington State. The correlation coefficient of 0.9329921 signifies a strong positive relationship between these seemingly disparate variables, indicating that as the distance between Neptune and the Sun changes, so does the incidence of arson in the Evergreen State. This correlation is further supported by the r-squared value of 0.8704743, suggesting that approximately 87% of the variability in arson rates can be explained by the distance between Neptune and the Sun.
The p-value of less than 0.01 indicates that the observed correlation is statistically significant, providing compelling evidence for the connection between these celestial and earthly phenomena. This finding prompts us to consider the cosmic forces at play, potentially influencing the proclivity for incendiary behavior in Washington State.
Furthermore, the scatterplot in Fig. 1 visually illustrates the robustness of this correlation, featuring data points that tightly cluster around a positively sloped trend line. The dots on this plot are as tightly packed as a constellation in the night sky, leaving little doubt about the strength of the relationship between the distance of Neptune from the Sun and arson rates in Washington State.
In light of these results, it becomes evident that there may be more to arson than meets the eye. Perhaps the celestial bodies, in their majestic orbits and cosmic whims, are silently choreographing the curious dance of fire on Earth. Our findings not only have implications for understanding the drivers of arson but also underscore the potential interplay between cosmic phenomena and human behavior. This unexpected connection between the celestial and the criminal invites a new perspective on the enigmatic domain of arson research and may prompt further investigations into the cosmic influences on terrestrial affairs. The stars have spoken, and they seem to have something to say about arson in Washington State—a truth that may be as elusive and enigmatic as the cosmos itself.
Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a silly researcher writing an academic paper.You draft the discussion section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.
Please make up the discussion section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between The distance between Neptune and the Sun and Arson in Washington. Make lots of jokes, goofy observations, and puns. Stay serious and dry most of the time, but then occasionally let your wit shine through.
Limit your response to 500 tokens.
Here are the title, abstract, literature review, and results sections. Please harken back to 1-2 of the goofy items in the literature review, but pretend to take them completely seriously. Discuss how your results supported the prior research.
Do not write a conclusion. I will add a conclusion after this.
[[TITLE]]
"Out of This World Connections: Exploring the Solar System's Influence on Arson Rates in Washington State"
[[ABSTRACT]]
The old saying may go "don't play with fire," but our research team decided to play with fire, or rather, with some astronomical data. In this study, we aimed to investigate the potential link between the distance of Neptune from the Sun and the incidence of arson in Washington State. Armed with data from Astropy and the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services, we crunched the numbers and were left astounded by the celestial dance we uncovered. Our findings revealed a correlation coefficient of 0.9329921, with a p-value less than 0.01 from 1985 to 2022. As we dive into the realm of astrological-forensic research, our results suggest that the celestial dance of Neptune and the Sun may have an unexpected influence on the fiery antics in the Evergreen State. Whether it's the gravitational pull or just some cosmic mischief, our study uncovers an astronomical twist to the age-old problem of arson. So next time you see a suspicious fire, remember to look up at the stars, for the truth may just be written in the heavens.
[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]
Research on the relationship between astronomical phenomena and earthly occurrences has spanned epochs, with scholars delving into the celestial influences on terrestrial events. Early studies by Smith and Doe (1998) and Jones (2005) primarily focused on the impact of lunar phases on human behavior, particularly in relation to criminal activities. While these studies offered insightful perspectives on the potential influence of celestial bodies, the subsequent literature presents a cosmic journey that will make you starry-eyed (pun intended).
Previous work has emphasized the importance of considering the broader cosmic context, where the interactions of planets may yield unforeseen implications for human conduct. In "Astronomy for Dummies," the authors briefly touch upon the speculative realm of astrological-forensic research, hinting at the untapped potential for uncovering astronomical correlates to human misdeeds. The notion of Neptune's ethereal influence on earthly phenomena is explored in "Neptune and the Mysteries of the Universe," where the authors delve into the captivating allure of the distant ice giant and its potential cosmic reverberations. While these sources may initially seem light-hearted, they metaphorically mirror the elusive nature of unraveling celestial influences.
Moving beyond the realm of non-fiction, fictional narratives have also grappled with the interplay of celestial entities and human behavior in ways that prompt a whimsical consideration of possible correlations. Works such as "The Arsonist's Guide to the Galaxy" and "Neptune's Fiery Dance" present cosmic plots that artfully intertwine the mysteries of arson with the cosmic ballet of the solar system. While these titles may seem fanciful, their thematic exploration invites an imaginative contemplation of the cosmic tapestry interwoven with human affairs.
Furthermore, the emergence of social media discussions has added a contemporary dimension to the discourse linking astronomical occurrences and earthly events. Sifting through Twitter threads and Facebook posts, it becomes evident that the popular imagination has also been captivated by the prospect of celestial influences on human conduct. Tweets like "When Neptune is in retrograde, the arson rates in Washington skyrocket! #CosmicConundrums" and Facebook status updates pondering, "Could Neptune's distance from the Sun be stirring up fiery mischief in the Pacific Northwest?" attest to the pervasive intrigue surrounding this unconventional nexus of cosmic and criminal inquiry.
In sum, while the literature initially delves into the serious exploration of astrological-forensic research, it strays into the cosmic comedic, beckoning researchers to embark on a cosmic caper to uncover the enigmatic relationship between the distance of Neptune from the Sun and the fiery antics of arson in Washington State.
[[RESULTS]]
The analysis of the data collected from 1985 to 2022 has revealed an astonishing correlation between the distance of Neptune from the Sun and the incidence of arson in Washington State. The correlation coefficient of 0.9329921 signifies a strong positive relationship between these seemingly disparate variables, indicating that as the distance between Neptune and the Sun changes, so does the incidence of arson in the Evergreen State. This correlation is further supported by the r-squared value of 0.8704743, suggesting that approximately 87% of the variability in arson rates can be explained by the distance between Neptune and the Sun.
The p-value of less than 0.01 indicates that the observed correlation is statistically significant, providing compelling evidence for the connection between these celestial and earthly phenomena. This finding prompts us to consider the cosmic forces at play, potentially influencing the proclivity for incendiary behavior in Washington State.
Furthermore, the scatterplot in Fig. 1 visually illustrates the robustness of this correlation, featuring data points that tightly cluster around a positively sloped trend line. The dots on this plot are as tightly packed as a constellation in the night sky, leaving little doubt about the strength of the relationship between the distance of Neptune from the Sun and arson rates in Washington State.
In light of these results, it becomes evident that there may be more to arson than meets the eye. Perhaps the celestial bodies, in their majestic orbits and cosmic whims, are silently choreographing the curious dance of fire on Earth. Our findings not only have implications for understanding the drivers of arson but also underscore the potential interplay between cosmic phenomena and human behavior. This unexpected connection between the celestial and the criminal invites a new perspective on the enigmatic domain of arson research and may prompt further investigations into the cosmic influences on terrestrial affairs. The stars have spoken, and they seem to have something to say about arson in Washington State—a truth that may be as elusive and enigmatic as the cosmos itself.
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Your response should start like this:
[[DISCUSSION]]
ChatGPT:
[[DISCUSSION]]
In the realm of astrological-forensic research, our findings unearth a celestial twist to the fiery antics of arson in Washington State. The robust correlation we observed between the distance of Neptune from the Sun and arson rates aligns with previous studies that have ventured into the cosmic labyrinths of celestial influences on earthly occurrences (Smith & Doe, 1998; Jones, 2005). While these earlier works focused on lunar phases, our research reveals a new dimension to the influence of celestial bodies on human behavior.
Our results bolster the whimsical notions posited in "Astronomy for Dummies," shedding light on the overlooked potential of uncovering cosmic correlates to human misdeeds. The speculative realm of astrological-forensic research, once viewed with a chuckle, now beckons serious contemplation. With the emergence of a statistically significant correlation and an r-squared value of 0.8704743, it becomes clear that the celestial dance is no mere cosmic comedy but a sobering influence on earthly misdemeanors.
The literature review playfully hinted at the untapped potential for unraveling Neptune's ethereal influence on earthly phenomena, and indeed, our study has made this connection more than just a fiction. "The Arsonist's Guide to the Galaxy" and "Neptune's Fiery Dance," while seemingly fanciful, now serve as cosmic vignettes that parallel our surprising findings.
The visual representation of our results in the tightly packed scatterplot is not only statistically compelling but also metaphorically reminiscent of the intricately woven cosmic tapestry. Just as the stars are woven into constellations, so too is the correlation between the distance of Neptune from the Sun and arson rates tightly interlinked. As we gaze upon the celestial correlations, it becomes increasingly evident that there may be a cosmic dialogue unfolding—a conversation that intricately entwines the cosmos, arson, and human conduct.
In concluding, our study highlights the need to explore the broader cosmic context when investigating earthly phenomena. The unexpected connection between the celestial and the criminal opens a new frontier for understanding and perhaps even predicting human behavior. The stars seem to have written a truth about arson in Washington State—one that, like the mysteries of the universe, invites further contemplation. So, the next time you look up at the night sky, remember that the celestial bodies may be quietly choreographing the curious dance of earthly affairs. After all, there might just be more to arson than meets the eye.
Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a silly researcher writing an academic paper.You draft the discussion section of goofy academic research papers that sounds like it belongs based on the title and abstract provided.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.
Please make up a short conclusion of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between The distance between Neptune and the Sun and Arson in Washington. Make lots of jokes, goofy observations, and puns. Stay serious and dry most of the time, but then occasionally let your wit shine through.
Limit your response to 300 tokens. At the very end, assert that no more research is needed in this area.
Here are the title, abstract, introduction, and results sections.
[[TITLE]]
"Out of This World Connections: Exploring the Solar System's Influence on Arson Rates in Washington State"
[[ABSTRACT]]
The old saying may go "don't play with fire," but our research team decided to play with fire, or rather, with some astronomical data. In this study, we aimed to investigate the potential link between the distance of Neptune from the Sun and the incidence of arson in Washington State. Armed with data from Astropy and the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services, we crunched the numbers and were left astounded by the celestial dance we uncovered. Our findings revealed a correlation coefficient of 0.9329921, with a p-value less than 0.01 from 1985 to 2022. As we dive into the realm of astrological-forensic research, our results suggest that the celestial dance of Neptune and the Sun may have an unexpected influence on the fiery antics in the Evergreen State. Whether it's the gravitational pull or just some cosmic mischief, our study uncovers an astronomical twist to the age-old problem of arson. So next time you see a suspicious fire, remember to look up at the stars, for the truth may just be written in the heavens.
[[INTRDUCTION]]
As the old adage goes, "The stars are not afraid to appear like fire." Well, in our case, neither are we afraid to delve into the cosmic abyss to explore the enigmatic connection between celestial bodies and the earthly phenomenon of arson. In this era of interdisciplinary research, our team sought to transcend the conventional boundaries of investigation and embark on a celestial journey to unravel the secrets of arson in the Evergreen State.
The inspiration for our study emerged from the peculiar juxtaposition of two seemingly unrelated realms: the distant ice giant Neptune and the fiery transgressions of arson in Washington State. While one might initially dismiss the thought of these two entities sharing any semblance of association, the whimsical nature of our scholarly curiosity led us to uncover bizarre correlations that skeptics might assert were simply the fables of astromancy.
Armed with observational data from Astropy—our modern-day telescope to the stars—our aim was to discern whether the astronomical positioning of Neptune and its distance from the Sun could potentially exert a gravitational or cosmic influence on the prevalence of arson in the state of Washington. After all, who could resist the allure of exploring the celestial dances and their possible role in the earthly dramas of arson?
In this paper, we present the surprising findings from our investigation, which unearth a correlation that is as striking as a meteor shower in a clear night sky. So, fasten your seatbelts and attach your cosmic safety harnesses, as we prepare to navigate through the uncharted territories of astrological-forensic research, where monumental discoveries blend seamlessly with the perplexing cosmic mysteries. Let's embark on this cosmic caper and journey through the cosmic ballet of Neptune and the Sun to unravel the unexpected influence they may wield on the fiery antics in the Evergreen State. After all, it's not every day that one gets to ponder the interplay of celestial mechanics and human misdemeanors. As we delve into the depths of this celestial enigma, let's brace ourselves for a wild ride through the cosmos, where the truth behind arson in Washington State may just lie in the celestial choreography that we dared to explore.
[[RESULTS]]
The analysis of the data collected from 1985 to 2022 has revealed an astonishing correlation between the distance of Neptune from the Sun and the incidence of arson in Washington State. The correlation coefficient of 0.9329921 signifies a strong positive relationship between these seemingly disparate variables, indicating that as the distance between Neptune and the Sun changes, so does the incidence of arson in the Evergreen State. This correlation is further supported by the r-squared value of 0.8704743, suggesting that approximately 87% of the variability in arson rates can be explained by the distance between Neptune and the Sun.
The p-value of less than 0.01 indicates that the observed correlation is statistically significant, providing compelling evidence for the connection between these celestial and earthly phenomena. This finding prompts us to consider the cosmic forces at play, potentially influencing the proclivity for incendiary behavior in Washington State.
Furthermore, the scatterplot in Fig. 1 visually illustrates the robustness of this correlation, featuring data points that tightly cluster around a positively sloped trend line. The dots on this plot are as tightly packed as a constellation in the night sky, leaving little doubt about the strength of the relationship between the distance of Neptune from the Sun and arson rates in Washington State.
In light of these results, it becomes evident that there may be more to arson than meets the eye. Perhaps the celestial bodies, in their majestic orbits and cosmic whims, are silently choreographing the curious dance of fire on Earth. Our findings not only have implications for understanding the drivers of arson but also underscore the potential interplay between cosmic phenomena and human behavior. This unexpected connection between the celestial and the criminal invites a new perspective on the enigmatic domain of arson research and may prompt further investigations into the cosmic influences on terrestrial affairs. The stars have spoken, and they seem to have something to say about arson in Washington State—a truth that may be as elusive and enigmatic as the cosmos itself.
-------
Your response should start like this:
[[CONCLUSION]]
ChatGPT:
[[CONCLUSION]]
In conclusion, our research has unearthed a fiery cosmic connection that is as hot as a supernova. The correlation between the distance of Neptune from the Sun and arson rates in Washington State has left us awestruck, much like a shooting star streaking across the night sky. While some may attribute these findings to pure happenstance, it appears that the celestial ballet of Neptune and the Sun may indeed have a hand in orchestrating the fiery capers in the Evergreen State.
As we ponder the implications of our astrological-forensic revelations, it's hard not to marvel at the cosmic mischief at play. Whether it's the gravitational pull of Neptune whispering temptations into the hearts of would-be arsonists or merely a celestial coincidence, the interplay between the distant ice giant and terrestrial flames is a cosmic riddle worthy of further contemplation.
However, much like the elusive comets, our findings should be taken with a grain of stardust. While the correlation between Neptune's distance and arson rates is compelling, we must exercise caution before jumping to intergalactic conclusions. After all, correlation does not necessarily imply causation, and we wouldn't want to launch ourselves into a cosmic conspiracy theory without ample evidence.
In the spirit of scientific inquiry, we must resist the temptation to ascribe every earthly enigma to celestial phenomena. As the saying goes, "Not every flicker in the night sky foretells a meteor shower." Therefore, we assert with interstellar certainty that no further research into the interstellar-terrestrial nexus of arson in Washington State is warranted at this time. Let this paper serve as a quirky footnote in the annals of astrological-forensic literature, a celestial detour into the realm of scientific whimsy.
Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide fictional names of academic journals. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide the name of a funny but plausible sounding research, scientific, or academic journal that would publish a paper entited Out of This World Connections: Exploring the Solar System's Influence on Arson Rates in Washington State. Respond only with the name of a fictional academic journal.
ChatGPT:
The Interstellar Journal of Criminology
Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide fictional names of nonprofit research organizations and associations. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide the name of a funny but plausible sounding nonprofit, academic, or scientific association or organization that would sponsor research that resulted in a paper entited Out of This World Connections: Exploring the Solar System's Influence on Arson Rates in Washington State. Respond only with the name of a fictional organization.
ChatGPT:
Red Planet Research Institute
Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide potential search keywords separated by commas. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide potential search keywords for a paper titled Out of This World Connections: Exploring the Solar System's Influence on Arson Rates in Washington State with an abstract of The old saying may go "don't play with fire," but our research team decided to play with fire, or rather, with some astronomical data. In this study, we aimed to investigate the potential link between the distance of Neptune from the Sun and the incidence of arson in Washington State. Armed with data from Astropy and the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services, we crunched the numbers and were left astounded by the celestial dance we uncovered. Our findings revealed a correlation coefficient of 0.9329921, with a p-value less than 0.01 from 1985 to 2022. As we dive into the realm of astrological-forensic research, our results suggest that the celestial dance of Neptune and the Sun may have an unexpected influence on the fiery antics in the Evergreen State. Whether it's the gravitational pull or just some cosmic mischief, our study uncovers an astronomical twist to the age-old problem of arson. So next time you see a suspicious fire, remember to look up at the stars, for the truth may just be written in the heavens.
ChatGPT:
arson rates, Washington State, solar system influence, Neptune distance, celestial influence, astrological-forensic research, correlation coefficient, FBI Crime Data, Astropy data, arson incidence, celestial dance, astronomical data, gravitational pull
*There is a bunch of Python happening behind the scenes to turn this prompt sequence into a PDF.
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Data details
The distance between Neptune and the SunDetailed data title: The average distance between Neptune and the Sun as measured on the first day of each month
Source: Caclculated using Astropy
Additional Info: I wrote a Python script using Astropy to calculate the distance between the named planets on the first day of each month for every year.
See what else correlates with The distance between Neptune and the Sun
Arson in Washington
Detailed data title: The arson rate per 100,000 residents in Washington
Source: FBI Criminal Justice Information Services
See what else correlates with Arson in Washington
Correlation is a measure of how much the variables move together. If it is 0.99, when one goes up the other goes up. If it is 0.02, the connection is very weak or non-existent. If it is -0.99, then when one goes up the other goes down. If it is 1.00, you probably messed up your correlation function.
r2 = 0.8704743 (Coefficient of determination)
This means 87% of the change in the one variable (i.e., Arson in Washington) is predictable based on the change in the other (i.e., The distance between Neptune and the Sun) over the 38 years from 1985 through 2022.
p < 0.01, which is statistically significant(Null hypothesis significance test)
The p-value is 1.5E-17. 0.0000000000000000148461947532
The p-value is a measure of how probable it is that we would randomly find a result this extreme. More specifically the p-value is a measure of how probable it is that we would randomly find a result this extreme if we had only tested one pair of variables one time.
But I am a p-villain. I absolutely did not test only one pair of variables one time. I correlated hundreds of millions of pairs of variables. I threw boatloads of data into an industrial-sized blender to find this correlation.
Who is going to stop me? p-value reporting doesn't require me to report how many calculations I had to go through in order to find a low p-value!
On average, you will find a correaltion as strong as 0.93 in 1.5E-15% of random cases. Said differently, if you correlated 67,357,327,357,197,472 random variables You don't actually need 67 quadrillion variables to find a correlation like this one. I don't have that many variables in my database. You can also correlate variables that are not independent. I do this a lot.
p-value calculations are useful for understanding the probability of a result happening by chance. They are most useful when used to highlight the risk of a fluke outcome. For example, if you calculate a p-value of 0.30, the risk that the result is a fluke is high. It is good to know that! But there are lots of ways to get a p-value of less than 0.01, as evidenced by this project.
In this particular case, the values are so extreme as to be meaningless. That's why no one reports p-values with specificity after they drop below 0.01.
Just to be clear: I'm being completely transparent about the calculations. There is no math trickery. This is just how statistics shakes out when you calculate hundreds of millions of random correlations.
with the same 37 degrees of freedom, Degrees of freedom is a measure of how many free components we are testing. In this case it is 37 because we have two variables measured over a period of 38 years. It's just the number of years minus ( the number of variables minus one ), which in this case simplifies to the number of years minus one.
you would randomly expect to find a correlation as strong as this one.
[ 0.87, 0.96 ] 95% correlation confidence interval (using the Fisher z-transformation)
The confidence interval is an estimate the range of the value of the correlation coefficient, using the correlation itself as an input. The values are meant to be the low and high end of the correlation coefficient with 95% confidence.
This one is a bit more complciated than the other calculations, but I include it because many people have been pushing for confidence intervals instead of p-value calculations (for example: NEJM. However, if you are dredging data, you can reliably find yourself in the 5%. That's my goal!
All values for the years included above: If I were being very sneaky, I could trim years from the beginning or end of the datasets to increase the correlation on some pairs of variables. I don't do that because there are already plenty of correlations in my database without monkeying with the years.
Still, sometimes one of the variables has more years of data available than the other. This page only shows the overlapping years. To see all the years, click on "See what else correlates with..." link above.
| 1985 | 1986 | 1987 | 1988 | 1989 | 1990 | 1991 | 1992 | 1993 | 1994 | 1995 | 1996 | 1997 | 1998 | 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | |
| The distance between Neptune and the Sun (Planetary distance (AU)) | 30.2535 | 30.2445 | 30.2347 | 30.2248 | 30.2152 | 30.2064 | 30.1985 | 30.1912 | 30.1844 | 30.1774 | 30.1698 | 30.161 | 30.1509 | 30.1396 | 30.1273 | 30.1147 | 30.1024 | 30.0908 | 30.0803 | 30.071 | 30.0627 | 30.055 | 30.0473 | 30.0391 | 30.0301 | 30.02 | 30.0091 | 29.9976 | 29.9861 | 29.9751 | 29.9652 | 29.9565 | 29.9491 | 29.9427 | 29.9369 | 29.931 | 29.9246 | 29.9174 |
| Arson in Washington (Arson rate) | 40.8 | 41.5 | 47.8 | 40.1 | 37.2 | 37 | 40.5 | 46 | 37 | 45.1 | 39.6 | 36 | 35.1 | 38.3 | 34.3 | 36.3 | 34.5 | 34.2 | 34.9 | 34.4 | 32.5 | 33.2 | 29.4 | 24.6 | 23.6 | 20.3 | 19.3 | 18.5 | 16.1 | 16.7 | 17.7 | 15.5 | 15.1 | 14.7 | 12.9 | 17.6 | 20.8 | 19.6 |
Why this works
- Data dredging: I have 25,153 variables in my database. I compare all these variables against each other to find ones that randomly match up. That's 632,673,409 correlation calculations! This is called “data dredging.” Instead of starting with a hypothesis and testing it, I instead abused the data to see what correlations shake out. It’s a dangerous way to go about analysis, because any sufficiently large dataset will yield strong correlations completely at random.
- Lack of causal connection: There is probably
Because these pages are automatically generated, it's possible that the two variables you are viewing are in fact causually related. I take steps to prevent the obvious ones from showing on the site (I don't let data about the weather in one city correlate with the weather in a neighboring city, for example), but sometimes they still pop up. If they are related, cool! You found a loophole.
no direct connection between these variables, despite what the AI says above. This is exacerbated by the fact that I used "Years" as the base variable. Lots of things happen in a year that are not related to each other! Most studies would use something like "one person" in stead of "one year" to be the "thing" studied. - Observations not independent: For many variables, sequential years are not independent of each other. If a population of people is continuously doing something every day, there is no reason to think they would suddenly change how they are doing that thing on January 1. A simple
Personally I don't find any p-value calculation to be 'simple,' but you know what I mean.
p-value calculation does not take this into account, so mathematically it appears less probable than it really is. - Y-axis doesn't start at zero: I truncated the Y-axes of the graph above. I also used a line graph, which makes the visual connection stand out more than it deserves.
Nothing against line graphs. They are great at telling a story when you have linear data! But visually it is deceptive because the only data is at the points on the graph, not the lines on the graph. In between each point, the data could have been doing anything. Like going for a random walk by itself!
Mathematically what I showed is true, but it is intentionally misleading. Below is the same chart but with both Y-axes starting at zero.
Try it yourself
You can calculate the values on this page on your own! Try running the Python code to see the calculation results. Step 1: Download and install Python on your computer.Step 2: Open a plaintext editor like Notepad and paste the code below into it.
Step 3: Save the file as "calculate_correlation.py" in a place you will remember, like your desktop. Copy the file location to your clipboard. On Windows, you can right-click the file and click "Properties," and then copy what comes after "Location:" As an example, on my computer the location is "C:\Users\tyler\Desktop"
Step 4: Open a command line window. For example, by pressing start and typing "cmd" and them pressing enter.
Step 5: Install the required modules by typing "pip install numpy", then pressing enter, then typing "pip install scipy", then pressing enter.
Step 6: Navigate to the location where you saved the Python file by using the "cd" command. For example, I would type "cd C:\Users\tyler\Desktop" and push enter.
Step 7: Run the Python script by typing "python calculate_correlation.py"
If you run into any issues, I suggest asking ChatGPT to walk you through installing Python and running the code below on your system. Try this question:
"Walk me through installing Python on my computer to run a script that uses scipy and numpy. Go step-by-step and ask me to confirm before moving on. Start by asking me questions about my operating system so that you know how to proceed. Assume I want the simplest installation with the latest version of Python and that I do not currently have any of the necessary elements installed. Remember to only give me one step per response and confirm I have done it before proceeding."
# These modules make it easier to perform the calculation
import numpy as np
from scipy import stats
# We'll define a function that we can call to return the correlation calculations
def calculate_correlation(array1, array2):
# Calculate Pearson correlation coefficient and p-value
correlation, p_value = stats.pearsonr(array1, array2)
# Calculate R-squared as the square of the correlation coefficient
r_squared = correlation**2
return correlation, r_squared, p_value
# These are the arrays for the variables shown on this page, but you can modify them to be any two sets of numbers
array_1 = np.array([30.2535,30.2445,30.2347,30.2248,30.2152,30.2064,30.1985,30.1912,30.1844,30.1774,30.1698,30.161,30.1509,30.1396,30.1273,30.1147,30.1024,30.0908,30.0803,30.071,30.0627,30.055,30.0473,30.0391,30.0301,30.02,30.0091,29.9976,29.9861,29.9751,29.9652,29.9565,29.9491,29.9427,29.9369,29.931,29.9246,29.9174,])
array_2 = np.array([40.8,41.5,47.8,40.1,37.2,37,40.5,46,37,45.1,39.6,36,35.1,38.3,34.3,36.3,34.5,34.2,34.9,34.4,32.5,33.2,29.4,24.6,23.6,20.3,19.3,18.5,16.1,16.7,17.7,15.5,15.1,14.7,12.9,17.6,20.8,19.6,])
array_1_name = "The distance between Neptune and the Sun"
array_2_name = "Arson in Washington"
# Perform the calculation
print(f"Calculating the correlation between {array_1_name} and {array_2_name}...")
correlation, r_squared, p_value = calculate_correlation(array_1, array_2)
# Print the results
print("Correlation Coefficient:", correlation)
print("R-squared:", r_squared)
print("P-value:", p_value)Reuseable content
You may re-use the images on this page for any purpose, even commercial purposes, without asking for permission. The only requirement is that you attribute Tyler Vigen. Attribution can take many different forms. If you leave the "tylervigen.com" link in the image, that satisfies it just fine. If you remove it and move it to a footnote, that's fine too. You can also just write "Charts courtesy of Tyler Vigen" at the bottom of an article.You do not need to attribute "the spurious correlations website," and you don't even need to link here if you don't want to. I don't gain anything from pageviews. There are no ads on this site, there is nothing for sale, and I am not for hire.
For the record, I am just one person. Tyler Vigen, he/him/his. I do have degrees, but they should not go after my name unless you want to annoy my wife. If that is your goal, then go ahead and cite me as "Tyler Vigen, A.A. A.A.S. B.A. J.D." Otherwise it is just "Tyler Vigen."
When spoken, my last name is pronounced "vegan," like I don't eat meat.
Full license details.
For more on re-use permissions, or to get a signed release form, see tylervigen.com/permission.
Download images for these variables:
- High resolution line chart
The image linked here is a Scalable Vector Graphic (SVG). It is the highest resolution that is possible to achieve. It scales up beyond the size of the observable universe without pixelating. You do not need to email me asking if I have a higher resolution image. I do not. The physical limitations of our universe prevent me from providing you with an image that is any higher resolution than this one.
If you insert it into a PowerPoint presentation (a tool well-known for managing things that are the scale of the universe), you can right-click > "Ungroup" or "Create Shape" and then edit the lines and text directly. You can also change the colors this way.
Alternatively you can use a tool like Inkscape. - High resolution line chart, optimized for mobile
- Alternative high resolution line chart
- Scatterplot
- Portable line chart (png)
- Portable line chart (png), optimized for mobile
- Line chart for only The distance between Neptune and the Sun
- Line chart for only Arson in Washington
- AI-generated correlation image
- The spurious research paper: Out of This World Connections: Exploring the Solar System's Influence on Arson Rates in Washington State
I'm grateful for your review!
Correlation ID: 2088 · Black Variable ID: 1932 · Red Variable ID: 20074
