Spurious correlation #5,341 · View random
A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is Annual US household spending on fresh milk and cream and the second variable is Votes for the Democratic Presidential candidate in Idaho. The chart goes from 2000 to 2020, and the two variables track closely in value over that time.

A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is Annual US household spending on fresh milk and cream and the second variable is Votes for the Democratic Presidential candidate in Idaho. The chart goes from 2000 to 2020, and the two variables track closely in value over that time.

Download png, svg

AI explanation

The additional consumption of calcium from the fresh milk and cream led to the development of stronger bones. This inadvertently made the residents more inclined to step out and participate in community events, including voting. After all, you need sturdy bones to stand in those long voting lines! Remember, strong calcium, strong voter turnout!

^{Show image generation prompt} Model: dalle-3
Prompt: Sure, here's an image generation prompt for DALLE-3 that aligns with your request: "Generate an image that resembles a scene from a Pixar movie. Depict a group of people with vibrant, healthy bones marching confidently in unison towards a voting booth. Each person holds a bottle of fresh milk and cream, symbolizing their household expenditure on dairy products. Their determined stride reflects the strong voter turnout for the Democratic Presidential candidate in Idaho. The overall scene should exude resilience, unity, and a sense of purpose." This prompt aims to evoke a visually compelling and heartwarming image that captures the essence of the described scene. The depiction should include only scenes, people, and objects, it should not include text or speech bubbles.

This image generation prompt was also generated by AI, using the following sequence:

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You select one of a few potential scene descriptors that seems to go along with the variables described. You respond only with the scene descriptions provided and say nothing else.
User prompt: Here are two variables: Annual US household spending on fresh milk and cream and Votes for the Democratic Presidential candidate in Idaho. Given these, which of the following image style descriptions seems most appropriate? Pick the one that seems to be related to one of the variables at hand. Please respond with only one of the following potential descriptions: An image that looks like it is a scene from a Pixar movie a Polaroid photo Cyber folk Surrealism Glitch art
ChatGPT: An image that looks like it is a scene from a Pixar movie

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You describe simple visual scenes that depict the two variables stated. You combine both variables into one scene.
User prompt: Please describe a visual scene that prominently depicts both Annual US household spending on fresh milk and cream and Votes for the Democratic Presidential candidate in Idaho, in the following situation: The additional consumption of calcium from the fresh milk and cream led to the development of stronger bones. This inadvertently made the residents more inclined to step out and participate in community events, including voting. After all, you need sturdy bones to stand in those long voting lines! Remember, strong calcium, strong voter turnout!. Keep the description simple.
ChatGPT: A group of people with strong, healthy bones, proudly walking together toward a voting booth. In their hands, they hold bottles of fresh milk and cream, representing their annual household spending on dairy products. Their determined stride reflects the high voter turnout for the Democratic Presidential candidate in Idaho.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You write and improve image generation prompts for DALLE-3. You maintain the same subjects, but enhance the visuals.
User prompt: Please respond with an image generation prompt that would be likely to create an interesting visual using DALLE-3, using the following style: [ An image that looks like it is a scene from a Pixar movie ] and depicting this scene: A group of people with strong, healthy bones, proudly walking together toward a voting booth. In their hands, they hold bottles of fresh milk and cream, representing their annual household spending on dairy products. Their determined stride reflects the high voter turnout for the Democratic Presidential candidate in Idaho. Keep the visual depiction simple. Do not include any words or speech bubbles.
ChatGPT: Sure, here's an image generation prompt for DALLE-3 that aligns with your request: "Generate an image that resembles a scene from a Pixar movie. Depict a group of people with vibrant, healthy bones marching confidently in unison towards a voting booth. Each person holds a bottle of fresh milk and cream, symbolizing their household expenditure on dairy products. Their determined stride reflects the strong voter turnout for the Democratic Presidential candidate in Idaho. The overall scene should exude resilience, unity, and a sense of purpose." This prompt aims to evoke a visually compelling and heartwarming image that captures the essence of the described scene.

*Variations in the User Prompts from chart to chart are just the result of random number generation in Python. I wrote a few arrays of various styles and methods to ask questions to change up the results. Every time this site writes an explanation or generates an image, the script picks from each at random.

I sequence the requests into multiple prompts because I find GPT 3.5 to perform much better with short, well-managed contexts. Thus, I track the context directly in Python and only ask ChatGPT targeted questions.
^{Show prompt for explanation} Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106 (fine-tuned)
System prompt: You provide humorous responses in the form of plausible sounding explanations for correlations. You assume the correlation is causative for the purpose of the explanation even if it is ridiculous. You do not chat with the user, you only reply with the causal connection explanation and nothing else.
User prompt: Please make up a funny explanation for how an increase in Annual US household spending on fresh milk and cream caused Votes for the Democrat Presidential candidate in Idaho to increase. Make it feel plausible.

AI academic paper

(Because p < 0.01)

Got Milk Votes? The Udderly Surprising Correlation Between Annual US Household Spending on Fresh Milk and Cream and Votes for the Democrat Presidential Candidate in Idaho

The Journal of Bovine Behavior and Political Analysis

Jan 2024

Reminder: This paper is AI-generated. Not real!

^{Show prompt used to generate this paper} Quick note: This sequence is long and repetitive. That's how the prompt engineering works for this one. I manage the output in Python to format it into this PDF.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You draft a literature review section of an academic research paper, that starts out dry for the first few sentences but then becomes hilarious and goofy.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up a literature review section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Annual US household spending on fresh milk and cream and Votes for the Democrat Presidential candidate in Idaho. You can't resist a good dad joke. Add a relevant dad joke related to the content every couple of sentences.

Speak in the present tense for this section (the authors find...), as is common in academic research paper literature reviews. Name the sources in a format similar to this: In "Book," the authors find lorem and ipsum.

Make up the lorem and ipsum part, but make it sound related to the topic at hand.

Start by naming serious-sounding studies by authors like Smith, Doe, and Jones - but then quickly devolve. Name some real non-fiction books that would be related to the topic. Then name some real fiction books that sound like they could be related. Then name a couple popular internet memes that are related to one of the topics.

Here is the title and abstract of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
"Got Milk Votes? The Udderly Surprising Correlation Between Annual US Household Spending on Fresh Milk and Cream and Votes for the Democrat Presidential Candidate in Idaho"

[[ABSTRACT]]
The present study sought to whimsically explore the potential link between annual US household spending on fresh milk and cream and votes for the Democrat presidential candidate in the state of Idaho. Leveraging data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the MIT Election Data and Science Lab at the Harvard Dataverse, a surprising correlation coefficient of 0.9383839 and p < 0.01 was found for the years 2000 to 2020. This udderly unexpected finding suggests that there may indeed be a playful connection between dairy consumption and political preferences in the Gem State.

With an abundance of cow pastures and the vast swathes of open land, it seems Idahoans may be moo-ving toward a certain type of candidate based on their dairy purchase habits. While we can't claim that "Milkshakes bring all the Dems to the yard," there is certainly reason to raise an eyebrow at the apparent correlation. Furthermore, this analysis adds a creamy layer of insight to the complex tapestry of American political behavior, proving once and for all that in the realm of voting, as in many things, milk does a body good – politically speaking, that is.

-------

And here is the introduction section that led to this literature review:
[[INTRODUCTION]]
The correlation between consumer behavior and political affiliations has long been a subject of interest within the fields of social science and economics. While much attention has been given to factors such as income, education, and demographics, the influence of dairy consumption on voting patterns has remained relatively unexplored. This study seeks to fill that knowledge gap by examining the surprising correlation between annual US household spending on fresh milk and cream and votes for the Democrat presidential candidate in the state of Idaho.
It is utterly remarkable how a seemingly unrelated variable such as dairy consumption could be connected to political preferences in a specific geographic area. This unexpected correlation raises the question: do Idahoans subconsciously let their milk preferences influence their choice of political representation? We aim to address this question and provide a more nuanced understanding of the factors shaping voting behavior in the Gem State.
The dairy industry and politics have often been associated with grassroots movements, but the literal connection between milk consumption and voter behavior is a novelty that even the most seasoned analysts would find hard to swallow. Yet, as with all scholarly inquiries, we must approach this correlation with a healthy dose of skepticism and a willingness to explore unexpected avenues of inquiry – much like choosing between 1% and 2% milk at the grocery store.
The findings of this study have the potential to churn the conventional wisdom surrounding voter behavior, bringing a fresh perspective to the field of political science. As we delve into the statistical significance of the correlation between milk consumption and political preferences, it will become clear that in the world of political analysis, sometimes the most unexpected variables can hold the creamiest insights.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]

ChatGPT:
[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]

Several serious studies have been conducted to explore the correlation between consumer behavior and political affiliations. Smith et al. (2010) investigated the relationship between grocery spending and voting patterns, while Doe and Jones (2015) examined the influence of dietary preferences on political party support. However, none of these studies specifically delved into the potential link between annual US household spending on fresh milk and cream and votes for the Democrat presidential candidate in the state of Idaho.

In "Milk and Politics: A Holistic Perspective," the authors find a surprising positive association between higher milk consumption and leaning toward left-wing political ideologies, which suggests a potential tie between dairy intake and support for Democrat candidates.

Additionally, "Got Milk Votes?" by Johnson and Smith (2018) sheds light on the possible effects of milk advertising on political attitudes, revealing a curious tendency for increased dairy consumption to be associated with a higher likelihood of voting for the Democrat party.

Turning to non-fiction works, "The Omnivore's Dilemma" by Michael Pollan explores the complexities of American food culture, including the role of dairy products in everyday life. Similarly, "Milk! A 10,000-Year Food Fracas" by Mark Kurlansky provides historical insights into the cultural and political significance of milk consumption.

On the other hand, fiction novels such as "The Milkman" by Anna Burns and "The Cows" by Dawn O'Porter offer imaginative narratives that indirectly touch on themes of societal norms and individual choices, which could be tangentially related to the influence of dairy consumption on political preferences.

And now, a relevant dad joke: What do you call a cow who has just given birth? Decalfinated!

In the realm of internet memes, the "I can has cheezburger?" cat meme and the "Butter cow" state fair tradition both playfully hint at the cultural significance of dairy products, albeit in a lighthearted and humorous manner. These elements add a touch of levity to the otherwise serious discourse surrounding the potential connection between milk consumption and voting behavior in Idaho.

Now, back to the research at hand. It seems that Idaho voters may be demonstrating a penchant for political preferences that align with their dairy purchase habits. While this correlation may appear utterly "moo-ving," it remains important to approach these findings with a critical eye. Whether dairy consumption truly influences political choices or if this is merely a humorous coincidence remains to be seen.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You draft the methodology section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the methodology section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Annual US household spending on fresh milk and cream and Votes for the Democrat Presidential candidate in Idaho. You can't resist a good dad joke. Add a relevant dad joke related to the content every couple of sentences. Stay serious and dry most of the time, but then occasionally let your wit shine through.

Your research team collected data from all across the internet, but mostly just used information from Bureau of Labor Statistics and MIT Election Data and Science Lab, Harvard Dataverse . You used data from 2000 to 2020

Make up the research methods you don't know. Make them a bit goofy and convoluted.

Here is the title, abstract, and introduction of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
"Got Milk Votes? The Udderly Surprising Correlation Between Annual US Household Spending on Fresh Milk and Cream and Votes for the Democrat Presidential Candidate in Idaho"

[[ABSTRACT]]
The present study sought to whimsically explore the potential link between annual US household spending on fresh milk and cream and votes for the Democrat presidential candidate in the state of Idaho. Leveraging data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the MIT Election Data and Science Lab at the Harvard Dataverse, a surprising correlation coefficient of 0.9383839 and p < 0.01 was found for the years 2000 to 2020. This udderly unexpected finding suggests that there may indeed be a playful connection between dairy consumption and political preferences in the Gem State.

With an abundance of cow pastures and the vast swathes of open land, it seems Idahoans may be moo-ving toward a certain type of candidate based on their dairy purchase habits. While we can't claim that "Milkshakes bring all the Dems to the yard," there is certainly reason to raise an eyebrow at the apparent correlation. Furthermore, this analysis adds a creamy layer of insight to the complex tapestry of American political behavior, proving once and for all that in the realm of voting, as in many things, milk does a body good – politically speaking, that is.

[[INTRODUCTION]]
The correlation between consumer behavior and political affiliations has long been a subject of interest within the fields of social science and economics. While much attention has been given to factors such as income, education, and demographics, the influence of dairy consumption on voting patterns has remained relatively unexplored. This study seeks to fill that knowledge gap by examining the surprising correlation between annual US household spending on fresh milk and cream and votes for the Democrat presidential candidate in the state of Idaho.
It is utterly remarkable how a seemingly unrelated variable such as dairy consumption could be connected to political preferences in a specific geographic area. This unexpected correlation raises the question: do Idahoans subconsciously let their milk preferences influence their choice of political representation? We aim to address this question and provide a more nuanced understanding of the factors shaping voting behavior in the Gem State.
The dairy industry and politics have often been associated with grassroots movements, but the literal connection between milk consumption and voter behavior is a novelty that even the most seasoned analysts would find hard to swallow. Yet, as with all scholarly inquiries, we must approach this correlation with a healthy dose of skepticism and a willingness to explore unexpected avenues of inquiry – much like choosing between 1% and 2% milk at the grocery store.
The findings of this study have the potential to churn the conventional wisdom surrounding voter behavior, bringing a fresh perspective to the field of political science. As we delve into the statistical significance of the correlation between milk consumption and political preferences, it will become clear that in the world of political analysis, sometimes the most unexpected variables can hold the creamiest insights.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[METHODOLOGY]]

ChatGPT:

[[METHODOLOGY]]

The data utilized in this research was obtained from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the MIT Election Data and Science Lab at the Harvard Dataverse, covering the period from 2000 to 2020. Annual US household spending on fresh milk and cream was collected from the Consumer Expenditure Surveys conducted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, while the votes for the Democrat presidential candidate in Idaho were sourced from the MIT Election Data and Science Lab. The data were then processed and analyzed to investigate the potential relationship between these variables.

To address potential confounding variables such as regional and socio-economic differences that could influence both milk purchasing habits and political preferences, a multivariate regression analysis was conducted. This analysis aimed to statistically control for these factors and isolate the unique association between annual household spending on fresh milk and cream and the votes for the Democrat presidential candidate in Idaho. This method allowed for a more nuanced understanding of the relationship, akin to separating the cream from the milk.

Furthermore, to ensure the robustness of the findings, sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the stability of the correlation across different sub-periods within the 2000-2020 timeframe. This approach provided insights into the consistency of the relationship over time, similar to conducting taste tests across various expiration dates of milk cartons.

In addition, to account for potential outliers or extreme observations that could unduly influence the results, robustness checks were performed using alternative statistical techniques such as quantile regression and weighted least squares regression. This methodological approach enhances the reliability of the results and prevents the findings from curdling due to anomalous data points.

Moreover, to explore the potential mechanisms underlying the observed correlation between milk consumption and political preferences, mediation analyses were conducted. These analyses aimed to examine whether factors such as calcium intake or lactose tolerance could explain the link between annual household spending on fresh milk and cream and votes for the Democrat presidential candidate in Idaho. This exploration shed light on the potential pathways through which dairy consumption may influence voting behavior, resembling an investigation into the ingredients that make up a political milkshake.

Finally, to address any potential endogeneity concerns stemming from unobserved variables that may jointly influence both milk spending and political preferences, instrumental variable regressions were employed. This method allowed for the identification of instruments that are plausibly exogenous to the voting decision in Idaho and could be used to establish the causal effect of annual US household spending on fresh milk and cream on votes for the Democrat presidential candidate. This rigorous approach ensures that the reported association between milk consumption and political votes is not just a result of a spurious relationship, unlike the unexpected discovery of expired milk at the back of the refrigerator.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You draft the discussion section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the discussion section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Annual US household spending on fresh milk and cream and Votes for the Democrat Presidential candidate in Idaho. You can't resist a good dad joke. Add a relevant dad joke related to the content every couple of sentences. Stay serious and dry most of the time, but then occasionally let your wit shine through.

Limit your response to 500 tokens.

Here are the title, abstract, literature review, and results sections. Please harken back to 1-2 of the goofy items in the literature review, but pretend to take them completely seriously. Discuss how your results supported the prior research.

Do not write a conclusion. I will add a conclusion after this.

[[TITLE]]
"Got Milk Votes? The Udderly Surprising Correlation Between Annual US Household Spending on Fresh Milk and Cream and Votes for the Democrat Presidential Candidate in Idaho"

[[ABSTRACT]]
The present study sought to whimsically explore the potential link between annual US household spending on fresh milk and cream and votes for the Democrat presidential candidate in the state of Idaho. Leveraging data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the MIT Election Data and Science Lab at the Harvard Dataverse, a surprising correlation coefficient of 0.9383839 and p < 0.01 was found for the years 2000 to 2020. This udderly unexpected finding suggests that there may indeed be a playful connection between dairy consumption and political preferences in the Gem State.

With an abundance of cow pastures and the vast swathes of open land, it seems Idahoans may be moo-ving toward a certain type of candidate based on their dairy purchase habits. While we can't claim that "Milkshakes bring all the Dems to the yard," there is certainly reason to raise an eyebrow at the apparent correlation. Furthermore, this analysis adds a creamy layer of insight to the complex tapestry of American political behavior, proving once and for all that in the realm of voting, as in many things, milk does a body good – politically speaking, that is.

[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]
Several serious studies have been conducted to explore the correlation between consumer behavior and political affiliations. Smith et al. (2010) investigated the relationship between grocery spending and voting patterns, while Doe and Jones (2015) examined the influence of dietary preferences on political party support. However, none of these studies specifically delved into the potential link between annual US household spending on fresh milk and cream and votes for the Democrat presidential candidate in the state of Idaho.
In "Milk and Politics: A Holistic Perspective," the authors find a surprising positive association between higher milk consumption and leaning toward left-wing political ideologies, which suggests a potential tie between dairy intake and support for Democrat candidates.
Additionally, "Got Milk Votes?" by Johnson and Smith (2018) sheds light on the possible effects of milk advertising on political attitudes, revealing a curious tendency for increased dairy consumption to be associated with a higher likelihood of voting for the Democrat party.
Turning to non-fiction works, "The Omnivore's Dilemma" by Michael Pollan explores the complexities of American food culture, including the role of dairy products in everyday life. Similarly, "Milk! A 10,000-Year Food Fracas" by Mark Kurlansky provides historical insights into the cultural and political significance of milk consumption.
On the other hand, fiction novels such as "The Milkman" by Anna Burns and "The Cows" by Dawn O'Porter offer imaginative narratives that indirectly touch on themes of societal norms and individual choices, which could be tangentially related to the influence of dairy consumption on political preferences.
And now, a relevant dad joke: What do you call a cow who has just given birth? Decalfinated!
In the realm of internet memes, the "I can has cheezburger?" cat meme and the "Butter cow" state fair tradition both playfully hint at the cultural significance of dairy products, albeit in a lighthearted and humorous manner. These elements add a touch of levity to the otherwise serious discourse surrounding the potential connection between milk consumption and voting behavior in Idaho.
Now, back to the research at hand. It seems that Idaho voters may be demonstrating a penchant for political preferences that align with their dairy purchase habits. While this correlation may appear utterly "moo-ving," it remains important to approach these findings with a critical eye. Whether dairy consumption truly influences political choices or if this is merely a humorous coincidence remains to be seen.

[[RESULTS]]
The correlation analysis revealed a striking relationship between annual US household spending on fresh milk and cream and votes for the Democrat presidential candidate in Idaho for the time period 2000 to 2020. The correlation coefficient of 0.9383839 suggests a remarkably strong positive association between these two variables. To put it in layman's terms, it's as if voters were saying, "I'm udderly amazed by this connection!"
The coefficient of determination (r-squared) of 0.8805644 indicates that approximately 88.06% of the variation in Democrat presidential votes in Idaho can be explained by the variation in annual household expenditure on fresh milk and cream. It's almost as if the milk and cream spending had a direct say in the voting decisions – perhaps a milk manifesto of sorts.
The p-value of < 0.01 indicates that the observed correlation is statistically significant, implying that it is highly unlikely to have occurred by chance. One might even say this level of significance is "utterly" impressive.
Notably, the scatterplot (Fig. 1) visually illustrates the strong positive linear relationship between annual US household spending on fresh milk and cream and votes for the Democrat presidential candidate in Idaho. It's as clear as black and white – or should we say, black and white like a Holstein cow!
This high correlation suggests that Idahoan voters are not just making dairy choices in the supermarket – they may also be "moo-ving" in a certain political direction based on their milk and cream preferences. It appears that in Idaho, milk and cream consumption has gone beyond being just a dietary choice, and has found its way into the political arena. Maybe next time, candidates will be asked not only about their policies, but also their milk preferences. And who knows, maybe "political milkshakes" will become a thing!

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[DISCUSSION]]

ChatGPT:

[[DISCUSSION]]

The findings of this study provide compelling evidence of a robust positive correlation between annual US household spending on fresh milk and cream and votes for the Democrat presidential candidate in Idaho. The results not only confirm but also significantly expand upon prior research suggesting a link between dietary habits and political inclinations. The observed correlation coefficient of 0.9383839 aligns with the findings of "Milk and Politics: A Holistic Perspective" and "Got Milk Votes?", demonstrating a consistent pattern of association between dairy consumption and Democrat candidate support. This result underscores the importance of further exploring the potential impact of dairy products on political behavior, as these patterns "moo-ve" our understanding of the complex interplay between individuals' dietary choices and their voting decisions.

The high coefficient of determination (r-squared) of 0.8805644 indicates that a substantial portion of the variation in Democrat presidential votes in Idaho can be effectively explained by the variation in annual household expenditure on fresh milk and cream. This finding echoes the notion put forth in "Milk Advertising on Political Attitudes," suggesting that milk consumption may exert a considerable influence on political preferences. The present study adds depth to this concept by revealing the degree to which dairy spending contributes to predicting Democrat votes in Idaho, positioning dairy products as more than a mere commodity – but also as indicators of potential political leanings. This begs the question, are voters truly casting "dairy ballots"?

The statistically significant p-value of < 0.01 further corroborates the robustness of the observed correlation, dismissing any notion of this relationship occurring by mere chance. This level of statistical significance reinforces the need to take seriously the potential implications of the association between dairy consumption and political choices. The significance of this finding is "utterly" striking, emphasizing the compelling nature of the connection between milk and cream spending and voting behavior. It could be said that the findings of this study have, in a sense, "milked" the truth from the data.

While the delightfully surprising nature of this correlation may initially raise eyebrows, the consistency of the evidence, coupled with the statistical strength of the relationship, demands thorough consideration. Consequently, these findings warrant further investigation into the mechanisms underlying the influence of dairy consumption on political preferences. Perhaps future research will uncover the existence of unacknowledged "dairy voting blocs," shedding light on previously unforeseen facets of political behavior. This study has revealed that there may be more to the old adage "no whey, no say" than meets the eye – or should we say, palate.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You draft the discussion section of goofy academic research papers that sounds like it belongs based on the title and abstract provided.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up a short conclusion of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Annual US household spending on fresh milk and cream and Votes for the Democrat Presidential candidate in Idaho. You can't resist a good dad joke. Add a relevant dad joke related to the content every couple of sentences. Stay serious and dry most of the time, but then occasionally let your wit shine through.

Limit your response to 300 tokens. At the very end, assert that no more research is needed in this area.

Here are the title, abstract, introduction, and results sections.
[[TITLE]]
"Got Milk Votes? The Udderly Surprising Correlation Between Annual US Household Spending on Fresh Milk and Cream and Votes for the Democrat Presidential Candidate in Idaho"

[[ABSTRACT]]
The present study sought to whimsically explore the potential link between annual US household spending on fresh milk and cream and votes for the Democrat presidential candidate in the state of Idaho. Leveraging data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the MIT Election Data and Science Lab at the Harvard Dataverse, a surprising correlation coefficient of 0.9383839 and p < 0.01 was found for the years 2000 to 2020. This udderly unexpected finding suggests that there may indeed be a playful connection between dairy consumption and political preferences in the Gem State.

With an abundance of cow pastures and the vast swathes of open land, it seems Idahoans may be moo-ving toward a certain type of candidate based on their dairy purchase habits. While we can't claim that "Milkshakes bring all the Dems to the yard," there is certainly reason to raise an eyebrow at the apparent correlation. Furthermore, this analysis adds a creamy layer of insight to the complex tapestry of American political behavior, proving once and for all that in the realm of voting, as in many things, milk does a body good – politically speaking, that is.

[[INTRDUCTION]]
The correlation between consumer behavior and political affiliations has long been a subject of interest within the fields of social science and economics. While much attention has been given to factors such as income, education, and demographics, the influence of dairy consumption on voting patterns has remained relatively unexplored. This study seeks to fill that knowledge gap by examining the surprising correlation between annual US household spending on fresh milk and cream and votes for the Democrat presidential candidate in the state of Idaho.
It is utterly remarkable how a seemingly unrelated variable such as dairy consumption could be connected to political preferences in a specific geographic area. This unexpected correlation raises the question: do Idahoans subconsciously let their milk preferences influence their choice of political representation? We aim to address this question and provide a more nuanced understanding of the factors shaping voting behavior in the Gem State.
The dairy industry and politics have often been associated with grassroots movements, but the literal connection between milk consumption and voter behavior is a novelty that even the most seasoned analysts would find hard to swallow. Yet, as with all scholarly inquiries, we must approach this correlation with a healthy dose of skepticism and a willingness to explore unexpected avenues of inquiry – much like choosing between 1% and 2% milk at the grocery store.
The findings of this study have the potential to churn the conventional wisdom surrounding voter behavior, bringing a fresh perspective to the field of political science. As we delve into the statistical significance of the correlation between milk consumption and political preferences, it will become clear that in the world of political analysis, sometimes the most unexpected variables can hold the creamiest insights.

[[RESULTS]]
The correlation analysis revealed a striking relationship between annual US household spending on fresh milk and cream and votes for the Democrat presidential candidate in Idaho for the time period 2000 to 2020. The correlation coefficient of 0.9383839 suggests a remarkably strong positive association between these two variables. To put it in layman's terms, it's as if voters were saying, "I'm udderly amazed by this connection!"
The coefficient of determination (r-squared) of 0.8805644 indicates that approximately 88.06% of the variation in Democrat presidential votes in Idaho can be explained by the variation in annual household expenditure on fresh milk and cream. It's almost as if the milk and cream spending had a direct say in the voting decisions – perhaps a milk manifesto of sorts.
The p-value of < 0.01 indicates that the observed correlation is statistically significant, implying that it is highly unlikely to have occurred by chance. One might even say this level of significance is "utterly" impressive.
Notably, the scatterplot (Fig. 1) visually illustrates the strong positive linear relationship between annual US household spending on fresh milk and cream and votes for the Democrat presidential candidate in Idaho. It's as clear as black and white – or should we say, black and white like a Holstein cow!
This high correlation suggests that Idahoan voters are not just making dairy choices in the supermarket – they may also be "moo-ving" in a certain political direction based on their milk and cream preferences. It appears that in Idaho, milk and cream consumption has gone beyond being just a dietary choice, and has found its way into the political arena. Maybe next time, candidates will be asked not only about their policies, but also their milk preferences. And who knows, maybe "political milkshakes" will become a thing!

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[CONCLUSION]]

ChatGPT:

[[CONCLUSION]]

In conclusion, the present study has revealed an unexpected and statistically significant correlation between annual US household spending on fresh milk and cream and votes for the Democrat presidential candidate in Idaho. The results point to an udderly striking relationship, with a correlation coefficient of 0.9383839 and a coefficient of determination of 0.8805644. It seems that in Idaho, the dairy aisle could be a predictor of political leanings – talk about having a "moo-ving" experience at the polling station!

The findings of this study add a creamy layer of insight to the understanding of voter behavior, demonstrating that factors beyond traditional demographics and socioeconomic indicators may play a role in shaping political preferences. As the saying goes, "don't cry over spilled milk, but do pay attention to how it might influence your voting decisions." Who knew that in the dairy state of Idaho, voting behavior could be correlated with dairy consumption? It seems that in the Gem State, milk and cream are not just for cereal and coffee – they might also be flavoring political opinions.

Given the statistically significant correlation uncovered in this study, it may be tempting to speculate about causal mechanisms and potential interventions involving milk marketing strategies for political candidates. However, it is important to approach these findings with caution and a healthy dose of skepticism, much like choosing between 1% and 2% milk at the grocery store – after all, correlation does not necessarily imply causation.

Given the unexpectedly strong correlation observed in this study, it seems that the relationship between annual US household spending on fresh milk and cream and votes for the Democrat presidential candidate in Idaho has been udderly exposed. It's as if Idahoans have been voting with their milk mustaches on! Therefore, based on the overwhelming evidence presented, it seems that no further research is needed in this area – the udderly amusing connection between dairy consumption and political preferences in Idaho has been mooved from hypothesis to reality.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide fictional names of academic journals. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide the name of a funny but plausible sounding research, scientific, or academic journal that would publish a paper entited Got Milk Votes? The Udderly Surprising Correlation Between Annual US Household Spending on Fresh Milk and Cream and Votes for the Democrat Presidential Candidate in Idaho. Respond only with the name of a fictional academic journal.

ChatGPT:

The Journal of Bovine Behavior and Political Analysis

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide fictional names of nonprofit research organizations and associations. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide the name of a funny but plausible sounding nonprofit, academic, or scientific association or organization that would sponsor research that resulted in a paper entited Got Milk Votes? The Udderly Surprising Correlation Between Annual US Household Spending on Fresh Milk and Cream and Votes for the Democrat Presidential Candidate in Idaho. Respond only with the name of a fictional organization.

ChatGPT:

The Institute for Dairy Politics and Household Economics

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide potential search keywords separated by commas. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide potential search keywords for a paper titled Got Milk Votes? The Udderly Surprising Correlation Between Annual US Household Spending on Fresh Milk and Cream and Votes for the Democrat Presidential Candidate in Idaho with an abstract of The present study sought to whimsically explore the potential link between annual US household spending on fresh milk and cream and votes for the Democrat presidential candidate in the state of Idaho. Leveraging data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the MIT Election Data and Science Lab at the Harvard Dataverse, a surprising correlation coefficient of 0.9383839 and p < 0.01 was found for the years 2000 to 2020. This udderly unexpected finding suggests that there may indeed be a playful connection between dairy consumption and political preferences in the Gem State.
With an abundance of cow pastures and the vast swathes of open land, it seems Idahoans may be moo-ving toward a certain type of candidate based on their dairy purchase habits. While we can't claim that "Milkshakes bring all the Dems to the yard," there is certainly reason to raise an eyebrow at the apparent correlation. Furthermore, this analysis adds a creamy layer of insight to the complex tapestry of American political behavior, proving once and for all that in the realm of voting, as in many things, milk does a body good – politically speaking, that is.

ChatGPT:

US household spending on fresh milk and cream, Democrat presidential candidate votes, Idaho, correlation study, Bureau of Labor Statistics, MIT Election Data and Science Lab, Harvard Dataverse, dairy consumption, political preferences, Gem State, Idaho voters, dairy purchase habits, political behavior, American politics, milk consumption, voting patterns

*There is a bunch of Python happening behind the scenes to turn this prompt sequence into a PDF.

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Data details

Annual US household spending on fresh milk and cream
Detailed data title: Average annual household spend on fresh milk and cream
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
See what else correlates with Annual US household spending on fresh milk and cream

Votes for the Democratic Presidential candidate in Idaho
Detailed data title: Percentage of all votes cast for the Democrat Presidential candidate in Idaho
Source: MIT Election Data and Science Lab, Harvard Dataverse
See what else correlates with Votes for the Democratic Presidential candidate in Idaho

Correlation r = 0.9383839 (Pearson correlation coefficient)
Correlation is a measure of how much the variables move together. If it is 0.99, when one goes up the other goes up. If it is 0.02, the connection is very weak or non-existent. If it is -0.99, then when one goes up the other goes down. If it is 1.00, you probably messed up your correlation function.

r² = 0.8805644 (Coefficient of determination)
This means 88.1% of the change in the one variable (i.e., Votes for the Democratic Presidential candidate in Idaho) is predictable based on the change in the other (i.e., Annual US household spending on fresh milk and cream) over the 6 years from 2000 through 2020.

p < 0.01, which is statistically significant(Null hypothesis significance test)
The p-value is 0.0056.^Show 0.0055778443121329390000000000
The p-value is a measure of how probable it is that we would randomly find a result this extreme.^Note More specifically the p-value is a measure of how probable it is that we would randomly find a result this extreme if we had only tested one pair of variables one time.

But I am a p-villain. I absolutely did not test only one pair of variables one time. I correlated hundreds of millions of pairs of variables. I threw boatloads of data into an industrial-sized blender to find this correlation.

Who is going to stop me? p-value reporting doesn't require me to report how many calculations I had to go through in order to find a low p-value!
On average, you will find a correaltion as strong as 0.94 in 0.56% of random cases. Said differently, if you correlated 179 random variables^Note Which I absolutely did.
with the same 5 degrees of freedom, ^Note Degrees of freedom is a measure of how many free components we are testing. In this case it is 5 because we have two variables measured over a period of 6 years. It's just the number of years minus ( the number of variables minus one ), which in this case simplifies to the number of years minus one.
you would randomly expect to find a correlation as strong as this one.

[ 0.53, 0.99 ] 95% correlation confidence interval (using the Fisher z-transformation)
^{Read more about the confidence interval} The confidence interval is an estimate the range of the value of the correlation coefficient, using the correlation itself as an input. The values are meant to be the low and high end of the correlation coefficient with 95% confidence.

This one is a bit more complciated than the other calculations, but I include it because many people have been pushing for confidence intervals instead of p-value calculations (for example: NEJM. However, if you are dredging data, you can reliably find yourself in the 5%. That's my goal!

All values for the years included above: ^Note If I were being very sneaky, I could trim years from the beginning or end of the datasets to increase the correlation on some pairs of variables. I don't do that because there are already plenty of correlations in my database without monkeying with the years.

Still, sometimes one of the variables has more years of data available than the other. This page only shows the overlapping years. To see all the years, click on "See what else correlates with..." link above.

	2000	2004	2008	2012	2016	2020
Annual US household spending on fresh milk and cream (Household spend)	131	144	168	152	139	147
Votes for the Democratic Presidential candidate in Idaho (Percentage of votes)	27.6381	30.2649	36.091	32.6223	27.492	33.0664

Why this works

Data dredging: I have 25,237 variables in my database. I compare all these variables against each other to find ones that randomly match up. That's 636,906,169 correlation calculations! This is called “data dredging.” Instead of starting with a hypothesis and testing it, I instead abused the data to see what correlations shake out. It’s a dangerous way to go about analysis, because any sufficiently large dataset will yield strong correlations completely at random.
Lack of causal connection: There is probably^Note Because these pages are automatically generated, it's possible that the two variables you are viewing are in fact causually related. I take steps to prevent the obvious ones from showing on the site (I don't let data about the weather in one city correlate with the weather in a neighboring city, for example), but sometimes they still pop up. If they are related, cool! You found a loophole.
no direct connection between these variables, despite what the AI says above. This is exacerbated by the fact that I used "Years" as the base variable. Lots of things happen in a year that are not related to each other! Most studies would use something like "one person" in stead of "one year" to be the "thing" studied.
Observations not independent: For many variables, sequential years are not independent of each other. If a population of people is continuously doing something every day, there is no reason to think they would suddenly change how they are doing that thing on January 1. A simple^Note Personally I don't find any p-value calculation to be 'simple,' but you know what I mean.
p-value calculation does not take this into account, so mathematically it appears less probable than it really is.
Very low n: There are not many data points included in this analysis. Even if the p-value is high, we should be suspicious of using so few datapoints in a correlation.

Try it yourself

You can calculate the values on this page on your own! Try running the Python code to see the calculation results. ^{Show the steps to do this.} Step 1: Download and install Python on your computer.

Step 2: Open a plaintext editor like Notepad and paste the code below into it.

Step 3: Save the file as "calculate_correlation.py" in a place you will remember, like your desktop. Copy the file location to your clipboard. On Windows, you can right-click the file and click "Properties," and then copy what comes after "Location:" As an example, on my computer the location is "C:\Users\tyler\Desktop"

Step 4: Open a command line window. For example, by pressing start and typing "cmd" and them pressing enter.

Step 5: Install the required modules by typing "pip install numpy", then pressing enter, then typing "pip install scipy", then pressing enter.

Step 6: Navigate to the location where you saved the Python file by using the "cd" command. For example, I would type "cd C:\Users\tyler\Desktop" and push enter.

Step 7: Run the Python script by typing "python calculate_correlation.py"

If you run into any issues, I suggest asking ChatGPT to walk you through installing Python and running the code below on your system. Try this question:

"Walk me through installing Python on my computer to run a script that uses scipy and numpy. Go step-by-step and ask me to confirm before moving on. Start by asking me questions about my operating system so that you know how to proceed. Assume I want the simplest installation with the latest version of Python and that I do not currently have any of the necessary elements installed. Remember to only give me one step per response and confirm I have done it before proceeding."

# These modules make it easier to perform the calculation
import numpy as np
from scipy import stats

# We'll define a function that we can call to return the correlation calculations
def calculate_correlation(array1, array2):

    # Calculate Pearson correlation coefficient and p-value
    correlation, p_value = stats.pearsonr(array1, array2)

    # Calculate R-squared as the square of the correlation coefficient
    r_squared = correlation**2

    return correlation, r_squared, p_value

# These are the arrays for the variables shown on this page, but you can modify them to be any two sets of numbers
array_1 = np.array([131,144,168,152,139,147,])
array_2 = np.array([27.6381,30.2649,36.091,32.6223,27.492,33.0664,])
array_1_name = "Annual US household spending on fresh milk and cream"
array_2_name = "Votes for the Democratic Presidential candidate in Idaho"

# Perform the calculation
print(f"Calculating the correlation between {array_1_name} and {array_2_name}...")
correlation, r_squared, p_value = calculate_correlation(array_1, array_2)

# Print the results
print("Correlation Coefficient:", correlation)
print("R-squared:", r_squared)
print("P-value:", p_value)

Reuseable content

You may re-use the images on this page for any purpose, even commercial purposes, without asking for permission. The only requirement is that you attribute Tyler Vigen. ^Note Attribution can take many different forms. If you leave the "tylervigen.com" link in the image, that satisfies it just fine. If you remove it and move it to a footnote, that's fine too. You can also just write "Charts courtesy of Tyler Vigen" at the bottom of an article.

You do not need to attribute "the spurious correlations website," and you don't even need to link here if you don't want to. I don't gain anything from pageviews. There are no ads on this site, there is nothing for sale, and I am not for hire.

For the record, I am just one person. Tyler Vigen, he/him/his. I do have degrees, but they should not go after my name unless you want to annoy my wife. If that is your goal, then go ahead and cite me as "Tyler Vigen, A.A. A.A.S. B.A. J.D." Otherwise it is just "Tyler Vigen."

When spoken, my last name is pronounced "vegan," like I don't eat meat.

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For more on re-use permissions, or to get a signed release form, see tylervigen.com/permission.

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High resolution line chart ^Note The image linked here is a Scalable Vector Graphic (SVG). It is the highest resolution that is possible to achieve. It scales up beyond the size of the observable universe without pixelating. You do not need to email me asking if I have a higher resolution image. I do not. The physical limitations of our universe prevent me from providing you with an image that is any higher resolution than this one.

If you insert it into a PowerPoint presentation (a tool well-known for managing things that are the scale of the universe), you can right-click > "Ungroup" or "Create Shape" and then edit the lines and text directly. You can also change the colors this way.

Alternatively you can use a tool like Inkscape.
High resolution line chart, optimized for mobile
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Line chart for only Annual US household spending on fresh milk and cream
Line chart for only Votes for the Democratic Presidential candidate in Idaho
AI-generated correlation image
The spurious research paper: Got Milk Votes? The Udderly Surprising Correlation Between Annual US Household Spending on Fresh Milk and Cream and Votes for the Democrat Presidential Candidate in Idaho

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Correlation ID: 5341 · Black Variable ID: 19895 · Red Variable ID: 26085


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