Spurious correlation #5,156 · View random
A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is Popularity of the first name Elisa and the second variable is Votes for Libertarian Senators in Montana. The chart goes from 1982 to 2018, and the two variables track closely in value over that time.

A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is Popularity of the first name Elisa and the second variable is Votes for Libertarian Senators in Montana. The chart goes from 1982 to 2018, and the two variables track closely in value over that time.

Download png, svg

AI explanation

It's simple, really. As the popularity of the name Elisa rose, more and more people couldn't help but li-berate their minds from traditional political views. It was like a wave of Elisa-teric thinking sweeping through the state, leading to a surge in support for Libertarian candidates. Who knew a name could elicit such a political response?

^{Show image generation prompt} Model: dalle-3
Prompt: Generate an image of a high-tech playground in a quaint Montana town, bustling with children at play. In the center, a little girl named Elisa skips joyfully through the grass, with parents and friends speaking fondly of her. Close to the playground, a line of voters eagerly waits to cast their ballots, proudly expressing their support for Libertarian candidates. Capture the sense of independence and free thinking in the air, mirroring the rise of the name Elisa's popularity. The image should reflect a blending of the high-tech setting with the peaceful, picturesque scene of a small Montana town. The depiction should include only scenes, people, and objects, it should not include text or speech bubbles.

This image generation prompt was also generated by AI, using the following sequence:

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You select one of a few potential scene descriptors that seems to go along with the variables described. You respond only with the scene descriptions provided and say nothing else.
User prompt: Here are two variables: Popularity of the first name Elisa and Libertarian votes for Senators in Montana. Given these, which of the following image style descriptions seems most appropriate? Pick the one that seems to be related to one of the variables at hand. Please respond with only one of the following potential descriptions: Photorealism Psychedelic Brutalism High-tech Cybernetic art
ChatGPT: High-tech

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You describe simple visual scenes that depict the two variables stated. You combine both variables into one scene.
User prompt: Please describe a visual scene that prominently depicts both Popularity of the first name Elisa and Libertarian votes for Senators in Montana, in the following situation: It's simple, really. As the popularity of the name Elisa rose, more and more people couldn't help but li-berate their minds from traditional political views. It was like a wave of Elisa-teric thinking sweeping through the state, leading to a surge in support for Libertarian candidates. Who knew a name could elicit such a political response?. Keep the description simple.
ChatGPT: In a quaint town in Montana, a vibrant playground bustles with children at play. A little girl named Elisa skips joyfully through the grass, her name spoken fondly by parents and friends alike. Meanwhile, nearby, a line of voters eagerly wait to cast their ballots, proudly expressing their support for Libertarian candidates. With each vote, a sense of independence and free thinking permeates the air, mirroring the rise of the name Elisa's popularity.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You write and improve image generation prompts for DALLE-3. You maintain the same subjects, but enhance the visuals.
User prompt: Please respond with an image generation prompt that would be likely to create an interesting visual using DALLE-3, using the following style: [ High-tech ] and depicting this scene: In a quaint town in Montana, a vibrant playground bustles with children at play. A little girl named Elisa skips joyfully through the grass, her name spoken fondly by parents and friends alike. Meanwhile, nearby, a line of voters eagerly wait to cast their ballots, proudly expressing their support for Libertarian candidates. With each vote, a sense of independence and free thinking permeates the air, mirroring the rise of the name Elisa's popularity. Keep the visual depiction simple. Do not include any words or speech bubbles.
ChatGPT: Generate an image of a high-tech playground in a quaint Montana town, bustling with children at play. In the center, a little girl named Elisa skips joyfully through the grass, with parents and friends speaking fondly of her. Close to the playground, a line of voters eagerly waits to cast their ballots, proudly expressing their support for Libertarian candidates. Capture the sense of independence and free thinking in the air, mirroring the rise of the name Elisa's popularity. The image should reflect a blending of the high-tech setting with the peaceful, picturesque scene of a small Montana town.

*Variations in the User Prompts from chart to chart are just the result of random number generation in Python. I wrote a few arrays of various styles and methods to ask questions to change up the results. Every time this site writes an explanation or generates an image, the script picks from each at random.

I sequence the requests into multiple prompts because I find GPT 3.5 to perform much better with short, well-managed contexts. Thus, I track the context directly in Python and only ask ChatGPT targeted questions.
^{Show prompt for explanation} Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106 (fine-tuned)
System prompt: You provide humorous responses in the form of plausible sounding explanations for correlations. You assume the correlation is causative for the purpose of the explanation even if it is ridiculous. You do not chat with the user, you only reply with the causal connection explanation and nothing else.
User prompt: Please make up a funny explanation for how increases in Popularity of the first name Elisa positively influenced Libertarian votes for Senators in Montana. Include one good pun.

AI academic paper

(Because p < 0.01)

Elisa's Elective Effect: A Liberty in Montana

The Journal of Eclectic Electrophysiology

Jan 2024

Reminder: This paper is AI-generated. Not real!

^{Show prompt used to generate this paper} Quick note: This sequence is long and repetitive. That's how the prompt engineering works for this one. I manage the output in Python to format it into this PDF.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You draft a literature review section of an academic research paper, that starts out dry for the first few sentences but then becomes hilarious and goofy.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up a literature review section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Popularity of the first name Elisa and Libertarian votes for Senators in Montana. Make it seem dry like academic research paper, but with lots of subtle hidden offhand remarks, jokes, goofy observations, and puns.

Speak in the present tense for this section (the authors find...), as is common in academic research paper literature reviews. Name the sources in a format similar to this: In "Book," the authors find lorem and ipsum.

Make up the lorem and ipsum part, but make it sound related to the topic at hand.

Start by naming serious-sounding studies by authors like Smith, Doe, and Jones - but then quickly devolve. Name some real non-fiction books that would be related to the topic. Then name some real fiction books that sound like they could be related. Then name a couple popular internet memes that are related to one of the topics.

Here is the title and abstract of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
"Elisa's Elective Effect: A Liberty in Montana"

[[ABSTRACT]]
The conventional wisdom in social sciences posits that personal first names have little bearing on political inclinations. However, our research delves into the seemingly frivolous realm of first name popularity and its curious relationship with political votes. Using data from the US Social Security Administration and MIT Election Data and Science Lab, Harvard Dataverse, we embarked on a thorough examination of the association between the popularity of the first name Elisa and libertarian votes for senators in the state of Montana. Our analysis reveals a remarkably strong correlation coefficient of 0.8557235, with statistical significance at p < 0.01, covering the period from 1982 to 2018. The implications of this unexpected connection between nomenclature and political leanings raise intriguing questions about the influence of seemingly trivial factors on electoral outcomes. Our findings prompt further investigation into the intricate interplay between personal names and voting behavior, adding a whimsical twist to the otherwise austere domain of political analysis.

-------

And here is the introduction section that led to this literature review:
[[INTRODUCTION]]
The influence of personal characteristics on political behavior has been a topic of interest and scrutiny in the field of social sciences. While traditional factors such as socioeconomic status, education, and party affiliation have been the focal point of numerous studies, the potential impact of seemingly inconsequential attributes, such as first names, has largely been overlooked. However, recent research has started to shed light on the unforeseen ways in which these seemingly trivial factors may intersect with political preferences.
The purpose of this study is to investigate the unexpected relationship between the popularity of the first name Elisa and libertarian votes for senators in the state of Montana. The choice of the name Elisa for this analysis was both arbitrary and deliberate, as it enabled a relatively unique and distinct population for investigation. By utilizing data from the US Social Security Administration and the MIT Election Data and Science Lab, Harvard Dataverse, we conducted a thorough exploration of the potential association between the frequency of the first name Elisa and libertarian votes in Montana from 1982 to 2018. The study encompasses a timeframe characterized by significant shifts in political landscapes and sociocultural dynamics, which further enriches the depth of our analysis.
The selection of Montana as the geographic focus of this study is not only geographically convenient but also presents a compelling demographic and political backdrop. The state has a history of embracing individual freedoms and limited governmental intervention, which aligns with the principles espoused by libertarian ideologies. Montana's distinct voting patterns, coupled with the unique naming trends of the population, render it an intriguing setting for our investigation.
Despite the seemingly tangential nature of our inquiry, the potential ramifications of uncovering a robust correlation between a specific first name's popularity and political voting behaviors could reverberate in the broader discourse of electoral analysis and sociopolitical dynamics. This unexpected association challenges existing perceptions of the drivers of political affiliation and adds a touch of whimsy to the otherwise conventional realm of political analysis. Thus, our study not only contributes to an evolving understanding of individual-level determinants of political behavior but also injects a sense of levity into the scholarly examination of electoral preferences.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]

ChatGPT:
[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]

The influence of first names on political inclinations has received little attention in mainstream political research. Nevertheless, recent efforts to explore this uncharted territory have yielded intriguing insights. Smith et al. (2016) conducted a preliminary investigation into the relationship between first names and voting behavior, laying the groundwork for our present inquiry. Doe (2018) further expanded on this premise by examining the potential association between first name popularity and electoral outcomes. Building upon this foundation, Jones (2020) undertook a comprehensive study delving into the nuanced connections between personal nomenclature and political preferences.

In "Naming and Voting: An Analysis of First Names and Electoral Outcomes," Smith et al. (2016) examined the statistical relationships between common first names and voting behaviors. The authors find a modest but consistent pattern of association, warranting further exploration into the potential impact of first names on electoral choices. Similarly, Doe (2018) investigated the potential influence of first name popularity on political leanings in "The Role of First Names in Political Identities." The study reveals hints of an unexpected linkage, prompting the need for more extensive scrutiny. Lastly, Jones (2020) contributed significantly to this nascent field with "The Naming Nexus: Exploring the Interplay of Personal Names and Political Affiliations." Jones' work captured the multifaceted nature of this relationship, setting the stage for our current investigation into the peculiar correlation between the first name Elisa and libertarian votes in Montana.

Expanding beyond the conventional scholarly literature, our analysis also draws insights from non-fiction works that offer a different perspective on the nexus between individual names and political choices. "Freakonomics: A Rogue Economist Explores the Hidden Side of Everything" by Levitt and Dubner (2005) and "Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking" by Gladwell (2005) shed light on the unexpected connections and biases that affect decision-making, offering a tangential but insightful context for our exploration.

Transitioning to a more whimsical dimension, the literary realm contributes its own intriguing disquisitions on nomenclature and societal dynamics. In Margaret Atwood's "The Handmaid's Tale" (1985) and George Orwell's "1984" (1949), the control and manipulation of names reflect broader themes of power and conformity, providing an abstract but fascinating parallel to our investigation into the potential impact of the name Elisa on political affiliations.

Moreover, contemporary cultural phenomena can offer curious insights into the influence of seemingly mundane factors on human behavior. The ubiquitous "This is Fine" meme humorously illustrates the phenomenon of complacency and normalization in the face of adverse circumstances, tangentially echoing our exploration of unexpected associations in the domain of political analysis.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You draft the methodology section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the methodology section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Popularity of the first name Elisa and Libertarian votes for Senators in Montana. Make it seem dry like academic research paper, but with lots of subtle hidden offhand remarks, jokes, goofy observations, and puns. Stay serious and dry most of the time, but then occasionally let your wit shine through.

Your research team collected data from all across the internet, but mostly just used information from US Social Security Administration and MIT Election Data and Science Lab, Harvard Dataverse . You used data from 1982 to 2018

Make up the research methods you don't know. Make them a bit goofy and convoluted.

Here is the title, abstract, and introduction of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
"Elisa's Elective Effect: A Liberty in Montana"

[[ABSTRACT]]
The conventional wisdom in social sciences posits that personal first names have little bearing on political inclinations. However, our research delves into the seemingly frivolous realm of first name popularity and its curious relationship with political votes. Using data from the US Social Security Administration and MIT Election Data and Science Lab, Harvard Dataverse, we embarked on a thorough examination of the association between the popularity of the first name Elisa and libertarian votes for senators in the state of Montana. Our analysis reveals a remarkably strong correlation coefficient of 0.8557235, with statistical significance at p < 0.01, covering the period from 1982 to 2018. The implications of this unexpected connection between nomenclature and political leanings raise intriguing questions about the influence of seemingly trivial factors on electoral outcomes. Our findings prompt further investigation into the intricate interplay between personal names and voting behavior, adding a whimsical twist to the otherwise austere domain of political analysis.

[[INTRODUCTION]]
The influence of personal characteristics on political behavior has been a topic of interest and scrutiny in the field of social sciences. While traditional factors such as socioeconomic status, education, and party affiliation have been the focal point of numerous studies, the potential impact of seemingly inconsequential attributes, such as first names, has largely been overlooked. However, recent research has started to shed light on the unforeseen ways in which these seemingly trivial factors may intersect with political preferences.
The purpose of this study is to investigate the unexpected relationship between the popularity of the first name Elisa and libertarian votes for senators in the state of Montana. The choice of the name Elisa for this analysis was both arbitrary and deliberate, as it enabled a relatively unique and distinct population for investigation. By utilizing data from the US Social Security Administration and the MIT Election Data and Science Lab, Harvard Dataverse, we conducted a thorough exploration of the potential association between the frequency of the first name Elisa and libertarian votes in Montana from 1982 to 2018. The study encompasses a timeframe characterized by significant shifts in political landscapes and sociocultural dynamics, which further enriches the depth of our analysis.
The selection of Montana as the geographic focus of this study is not only geographically convenient but also presents a compelling demographic and political backdrop. The state has a history of embracing individual freedoms and limited governmental intervention, which aligns with the principles espoused by libertarian ideologies. Montana's distinct voting patterns, coupled with the unique naming trends of the population, render it an intriguing setting for our investigation.
Despite the seemingly tangential nature of our inquiry, the potential ramifications of uncovering a robust correlation between a specific first name's popularity and political voting behaviors could reverberate in the broader discourse of electoral analysis and sociopolitical dynamics. This unexpected association challenges existing perceptions of the drivers of political affiliation and adds a touch of whimsy to the otherwise conventional realm of political analysis. Thus, our study not only contributes to an evolving understanding of individual-level determinants of political behavior but also injects a sense of levity into the scholarly examination of electoral preferences.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[METHODOLOGY]]

ChatGPT:

[[METHODOLOGY]]

To commence our inquiry into the confluence of nomenclature and political proclivities, a multifaceted approach was employed to gather and scrutinize the relevant data. The primary source of information regarding the prevalence of the first name Elisa was extracted from the comprehensive records maintained by the US Social Security Administration. The moniker "Elisa" was chosen for its distinctive yet sufficiently prevalent presence within the geographic bounds of the United States, providing an ample cohort for analysis. The nomenclatural data spanned the years 1982 to 2018, thus encapsulating a substantial temporal breadth conducive to capturing nuanced trends in name popularity.

In parallel, data pertaining to the libertarian votes for senators in Montana during the same time frame was meticulously procured from the MIT Election Data and Science Lab, Harvard Dataverse, facilitating a meticulous alignment of the voting patterns with the temporal dynamics of the name "Elisa". This confluence of data sources furnished a robust foundation for investigating the purported link between the popularity of the appellation "Elisa" and the electoral choices of the populace in the context of Montana's senatorial races.

The utilization of these disparate yet complementary datasets empowered our research to conduct a comprehensive quantitative analysis, leveraging statistical techniques to discern patterns and correlations delineating the connection between the frequency of the name "Elisa" and the endorsement of libertarian candidates. A nuanced exploration into the evolution of these variables over the selected period facilitated the identification of potential underlying causative factors, despite the ostensibly peculiar nature of the inquiry.

It is worth noting, however, that the causal mechanism underpinning the observed association between the proliferation of the name "Elisa" and proclivities toward libertarian votes remains a subject warranting further elucidation. Nevertheless, the fortuitous amalgamation of distinct datasets and the application of rigorous statistical methodologies have enabled the exposition of an unexpected and compelling entwinement of seemingly unrelated phenomena. Additionally, the deliberate selection of Montana as the focal region for this investigation imbued the study with a contextual richness emblematic of the interdisciplinary continuum and coalescence of seemingly disparate fields of inquiry.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You draft the discussion section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the discussion section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Popularity of the first name Elisa and Libertarian votes for Senators in Montana. Make it seem dry like academic research paper, but with lots of subtle hidden offhand remarks, jokes, goofy observations, and puns. Stay serious and dry most of the time, but then occasionally let your wit shine through.

Limit your response to 500 tokens.

Here are the title, abstract, literature review, and results sections. Please harken back to 1-2 of the goofy items in the literature review, but pretend to take them completely seriously. Discuss how your results supported the prior research.

Do not write a conclusion. I will add a conclusion after this.

[[TITLE]]
"Elisa's Elective Effect: A Liberty in Montana"

[[ABSTRACT]]
The conventional wisdom in social sciences posits that personal first names have little bearing on political inclinations. However, our research delves into the seemingly frivolous realm of first name popularity and its curious relationship with political votes. Using data from the US Social Security Administration and MIT Election Data and Science Lab, Harvard Dataverse, we embarked on a thorough examination of the association between the popularity of the first name Elisa and libertarian votes for senators in the state of Montana. Our analysis reveals a remarkably strong correlation coefficient of 0.8557235, with statistical significance at p < 0.01, covering the period from 1982 to 2018. The implications of this unexpected connection between nomenclature and political leanings raise intriguing questions about the influence of seemingly trivial factors on electoral outcomes. Our findings prompt further investigation into the intricate interplay between personal names and voting behavior, adding a whimsical twist to the otherwise austere domain of political analysis.

[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]
The influence of first names on political inclinations has received little attention in mainstream political research. Nevertheless, recent efforts to explore this uncharted territory have yielded intriguing insights. Smith et al. (2016) conducted a preliminary investigation into the relationship between first names and voting behavior, laying the groundwork for our present inquiry. Doe (2018) further expanded on this premise by examining the potential association between first name popularity and electoral outcomes. Building upon this foundation, Jones (2020) undertook a comprehensive study delving into the nuanced connections between personal nomenclature and political preferences.
In "Naming and Voting: An Analysis of First Names and Electoral Outcomes," Smith et al. (2016) examined the statistical relationships between common first names and voting behaviors. The authors find a modest but consistent pattern of association, warranting further exploration into the potential impact of first names on electoral choices. Similarly, Doe (2018) investigated the potential influence of first name popularity on political leanings in "The Role of First Names in Political Identities." The study reveals hints of an unexpected linkage, prompting the need for more extensive scrutiny. Lastly, Jones (2020) contributed significantly to this nascent field with "The Naming Nexus: Exploring the Interplay of Personal Names and Political Affiliations." Jones' work captured the multifaceted nature of this relationship, setting the stage for our current investigation into the peculiar correlation between the first name Elisa and libertarian votes in Montana.
Expanding beyond the conventional scholarly literature, our analysis also draws insights from non-fiction works that offer a different perspective on the nexus between individual names and political choices. "Freakonomics: A Rogue Economist Explores the Hidden Side of Everything" by Levitt and Dubner (2005) and "Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking" by Gladwell (2005) shed light on the unexpected connections and biases that affect decision-making, offering a tangential but insightful context for our exploration.
Transitioning to a more whimsical dimension, the literary realm contributes its own intriguing disquisitions on nomenclature and societal dynamics. In Margaret Atwood's "The Handmaid's Tale" (1985) and George Orwell's "1984" (1949), the control and manipulation of names reflect broader themes of power and conformity, providing an abstract but fascinating parallel to our investigation into the potential impact of the name Elisa on political affiliations.
Moreover, contemporary cultural phenomena can offer curious insights into the influence of seemingly mundane factors on human behavior. The ubiquitous "This is Fine" meme humorously illustrates the phenomenon of complacency and normalization in the face of adverse circumstances, tangentially echoing our exploration of unexpected associations in the domain of political analysis.

[[RESULTS]]
The analysis yielded a strong correlation coefficient of 0.8557235, indicating a robust positive relationship between the prevalence of the first name Elisa and libertarian votes for senators in Montana over the period from 1982 to 2018. This finding was further substantiated by an r-squared value of 0.7322627, underscoring the substantial proportion of variation in libertarian votes that can be explained by the popularity of the name Elisa. The statistical significance of the correlation at p < 0.01 firmly establishes the reliability of this relationship.
The figure (Fig. 1) portrays a compelling visual representation of the association between the frequency of the first name Elisa and libertarian votes for senators in Montana, serving as a poignant reminder that unexpected connections can emerge from the most unassuming sources.
The implications of these results are both thought-provoking and, dare I say, titillating. The revelation of a substantial correlation between a seemingly trivial factor such as a first name and political voting behavior challenges conventional notions of the determinants of electoral preferences, infusing a delightful sense of unpredictability into the staid realm of political analysis. These findings call for further investigations into the underlying mechanisms driving this unexpected relationship, potentially unravelling an intriguing subplot in the complex narrative of electoral dynamics.
In conclusion, our study unearths a remarkably strong connection between the popularity of the first name Elisa and libertarian votes for senators in Montana, encapsulating the delightful unpredictability of electoral behavior and injecting a touch of whimsy into the otherwise sober exploration of political inclinations.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[DISCUSSION]]

ChatGPT:

[[DISCUSSION]]

The investigation into the correlation between the prevalence of the first name Elisa and libertarian votes for senators in Montana has yielded captivating findings that not only challenge conventional paradigms but also hint at the intriguing influence of seemingly trivial factors on political domains. The results of this study substantiate and extend the existing literature, providing robust evidence for the unanticipated connection between nomenclature and political leanings.

The substantial correlation coefficient of 0.8557235 discovered in this analysis aligns with previous research by Smith et al. (2016), Doe (2018), and Jones (2020), which hinted at the potential impact of first names on electoral outcomes. The pronounced strength of the association between the popularity of the first name Elisa and libertarian votes for senators in Montana reaffirms the relevance of nomenclature as a subtle yet influential determinant of political preferences. This, in turn, amplifies the significance of unconventional factors in shaping electoral behavior, serving as a testament to the enigmatic intricacies of human decision-making processes.

Echoing the subtle wit embedded in Levitt and Dubner's "Freakonomics: A Rogue Economist Explores the Hidden Side of Everything" (2005) and Gladwell's "Blink: The Power of Thinking Without Thinking" (2005), our research uncovers the unexpected and, I daresay, whimsical relationship between the name Elisa and libertarian votes. This unexpected link stands as a testament to the whims of fate and the clandestine influences that underpin electoral dynamics, adding a sprinkling of mirth to the otherwise solemn landscape of political analysis.

Moreover, the literary parallels drawn from Margaret Atwood's "The Handmaid's Tale" (1985) and George Orwell's "1984" (1949) are unexpectedly applicable, with the control and manipulation of names reflecting broader themes of power and conformity. Hence, our findings lend a subtle but intriguing weight to the potential ramifications of seemingly innocuous factors on societal dynamics, amplifying the significance of our peculiar observation.

The robust statistical significance at p < 0.01 further consolidates the credibility and reliability of the observed relationship, corroborating the unexpectedly crucial role of the first name Elisa in shaping political affinities. This unexpected revelation injects a delightful sense of whimsy into the typically austere landscape of political science research, encouraging further exploration into the intricate interplay between trivial factors and electoral outcomes.

In summary, the strong correlation between the prevalence of the first name Elisa and libertarian votes in Montana underscores the whimsical unpredictability of electoral dynamics, inviting an exhilarating excursion into the hitherto unexplored intersections of personal nomenclature and political proclivities. This, in turn, unveils the captivating potential for the fusion of wit and rigor in scholarly inquiry, marking a lighthearted yet resolute step towards unraveling the mysterious nexus of nomenclature and voting behavior.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You draft the discussion section of goofy academic research papers that sounds like it belongs based on the title and abstract provided.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up a short conclusion of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Popularity of the first name Elisa and Libertarian votes for Senators in Montana. Make it seem dry like academic research paper, but with lots of subtle hidden offhand remarks, jokes, goofy observations, and puns. Stay serious and dry most of the time, but then occasionally let your wit shine through.

Limit your response to 300 tokens. At the very end, assert that no more research is needed in this area.

Here are the title, abstract, introduction, and results sections.
[[TITLE]]
"Elisa's Elective Effect: A Liberty in Montana"

[[ABSTRACT]]
The conventional wisdom in social sciences posits that personal first names have little bearing on political inclinations. However, our research delves into the seemingly frivolous realm of first name popularity and its curious relationship with political votes. Using data from the US Social Security Administration and MIT Election Data and Science Lab, Harvard Dataverse, we embarked on a thorough examination of the association between the popularity of the first name Elisa and libertarian votes for senators in the state of Montana. Our analysis reveals a remarkably strong correlation coefficient of 0.8557235, with statistical significance at p < 0.01, covering the period from 1982 to 2018. The implications of this unexpected connection between nomenclature and political leanings raise intriguing questions about the influence of seemingly trivial factors on electoral outcomes. Our findings prompt further investigation into the intricate interplay between personal names and voting behavior, adding a whimsical twist to the otherwise austere domain of political analysis.

[[INTRDUCTION]]
The influence of personal characteristics on political behavior has been a topic of interest and scrutiny in the field of social sciences. While traditional factors such as socioeconomic status, education, and party affiliation have been the focal point of numerous studies, the potential impact of seemingly inconsequential attributes, such as first names, has largely been overlooked. However, recent research has started to shed light on the unforeseen ways in which these seemingly trivial factors may intersect with political preferences.
The purpose of this study is to investigate the unexpected relationship between the popularity of the first name Elisa and libertarian votes for senators in the state of Montana. The choice of the name Elisa for this analysis was both arbitrary and deliberate, as it enabled a relatively unique and distinct population for investigation. By utilizing data from the US Social Security Administration and the MIT Election Data and Science Lab, Harvard Dataverse, we conducted a thorough exploration of the potential association between the frequency of the first name Elisa and libertarian votes in Montana from 1982 to 2018. The study encompasses a timeframe characterized by significant shifts in political landscapes and sociocultural dynamics, which further enriches the depth of our analysis.
The selection of Montana as the geographic focus of this study is not only geographically convenient but also presents a compelling demographic and political backdrop. The state has a history of embracing individual freedoms and limited governmental intervention, which aligns with the principles espoused by libertarian ideologies. Montana's distinct voting patterns, coupled with the unique naming trends of the population, render it an intriguing setting for our investigation.
Despite the seemingly tangential nature of our inquiry, the potential ramifications of uncovering a robust correlation between a specific first name's popularity and political voting behaviors could reverberate in the broader discourse of electoral analysis and sociopolitical dynamics. This unexpected association challenges existing perceptions of the drivers of political affiliation and adds a touch of whimsy to the otherwise conventional realm of political analysis. Thus, our study not only contributes to an evolving understanding of individual-level determinants of political behavior but also injects a sense of levity into the scholarly examination of electoral preferences.

[[RESULTS]]
The analysis yielded a strong correlation coefficient of 0.8557235, indicating a robust positive relationship between the prevalence of the first name Elisa and libertarian votes for senators in Montana over the period from 1982 to 2018. This finding was further substantiated by an r-squared value of 0.7322627, underscoring the substantial proportion of variation in libertarian votes that can be explained by the popularity of the name Elisa. The statistical significance of the correlation at p < 0.01 firmly establishes the reliability of this relationship.
The figure (Fig. 1) portrays a compelling visual representation of the association between the frequency of the first name Elisa and libertarian votes for senators in Montana, serving as a poignant reminder that unexpected connections can emerge from the most unassuming sources.
The implications of these results are both thought-provoking and, dare I say, titillating. The revelation of a substantial correlation between a seemingly trivial factor such as a first name and political voting behavior challenges conventional notions of the determinants of electoral preferences, infusing a delightful sense of unpredictability into the staid realm of political analysis. These findings call for further investigations into the underlying mechanisms driving this unexpected relationship, potentially unravelling an intriguing subplot in the complex narrative of electoral dynamics.
In conclusion, our study unearths a remarkably strong connection between the popularity of the first name Elisa and libertarian votes for senators in Montana, encapsulating the delightful unpredictability of electoral behavior and injecting a touch of whimsy into the otherwise sober exploration of political inclinations.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[CONCLUSION]]

ChatGPT:

[[CONCLUSION]]

In conclusion, the findings of this study illuminate a surprisingly robust association between the popularity of the first name Elisa and libertarian votes for senators in Montana. The substantial correlation coefficient of 0.8557235, coupled with the remarkable r-squared value of 0.7322627, not only underscores the strength of this relationship but also adds a whimsical twist to the otherwise austere domain of political analysis. These results challenge conventional assumptions and introduce a charming unpredictability into the scholarly examination of electoral preferences.

The compelling visual representation in Figure 1 serves as a playful reminder that the most unassuming sources can harbor unexpected connections, akin to finding a hidden treasure in a mundane setting. This study sheds light on the potential influence of seemingly trivial factors on electoral behavior, injecting a delightful sense of levity into the scholarly discourse.

The broader implications of this unanticipated correlation prompt further exploration into the underlying mechanisms driving this eccentric relationship. While our findings prompt a wry smile and a raised eyebrow, they also compel future researchers to uncover the underlying reasons behind this quirky connection, akin to solving a delightful mystery in the realm of political analysis.

In light of the delightful unpredictability uncovered by this study, one might be tempted to dismiss our findings as a mere whimsical anomaly. Nevertheless, the robustness of the correlation and its statistical significance at p < 0.01 demand that this connection be taken seriously, albeit with a touch of playful curiosity.

In closing, the unexpected connection between the first name Elisa and libertarian votes in Montana adds a charming subplot to the complex narrative of electoral dynamics. This study urges future researchers to explore and embrace the whimsical and unexpected twists that can enliven the otherwise serious pursuit of political understanding.

It is with a sardonic chuckle and a twinkle in our eyes that we assert: no further research in this area is needed.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide fictional names of academic journals. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide the name of a funny but plausible sounding research, scientific, or academic journal that would publish a paper entited Elisa's Elective Effect: A Liberty in Montana. Respond only with the name of a fictional academic journal.

ChatGPT:

The Journal of Eclectic Electrophysiology

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide fictional names of nonprofit research organizations and associations. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide the name of a funny but plausible sounding nonprofit, academic, or scientific association or organization that would sponsor research that resulted in a paper entited Elisa's Elective Effect: A Liberty in Montana. Respond only with the name of a fictional organization.

ChatGPT:

Society for the Advancement of Quirky Research Endeavors (SAQRE)

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide potential search keywords separated by commas. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide potential search keywords for a paper titled Elisa's Elective Effect: A Liberty in Montana with an abstract of The conventional wisdom in social sciences posits that personal first names have little bearing on political inclinations. However, our research delves into the seemingly frivolous realm of first name popularity and its curious relationship with political votes. Using data from the US Social Security Administration and MIT Election Data and Science Lab, Harvard Dataverse, we embarked on a thorough examination of the association between the popularity of the first name Elisa and libertarian votes for senators in the state of Montana. Our analysis reveals a remarkably strong correlation coefficient of 0.8557235, with statistical significance at p < 0.01, covering the period from 1982 to 2018. The implications of this unexpected connection between nomenclature and political leanings raise intriguing questions about the influence of seemingly trivial factors on electoral outcomes. Our findings prompt further investigation into the intricate interplay between personal names and voting behavior, adding a whimsical twist to the otherwise austere domain of political analysis.

ChatGPT:

Elisa, first name popularity, political inclinations, social sciences, US Social Security Administration, MIT Election Data and Science Lab, Harvard Dataverse, Montana, libertarian votes, correlation coefficient, electoral outcomes, voting behavior

*There is a bunch of Python happening behind the scenes to turn this prompt sequence into a PDF.

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Data details

Popularity of the first name Elisa
Detailed data title: Babies of all sexes born in the US named Elisa
Source: US Social Security Administration
See what else correlates with Popularity of the first name Elisa

Votes for Libertarian Senators in Montana
Detailed data title: Total number of votes cast for Federal Libertarian Senate candidates in Montana
Source: MIT Election Data and Science Lab, Harvard Dataverse
See what else correlates with Votes for Libertarian Senators in Montana

Correlation r = 0.8557235 (Pearson correlation coefficient)
Correlation is a measure of how much the variables move together. If it is 0.99, when one goes up the other goes up. If it is 0.02, the connection is very weak or non-existent. If it is -0.99, then when one goes up the other goes down. If it is 1.00, you probably messed up your correlation function.

r² = 0.7322627 (Coefficient of determination)
This means 73.2% of the change in the one variable (i.e., Votes for Libertarian Senators in Montana) is predictable based on the change in the other (i.e., Popularity of the first name Elisa) over the 8 years from 1982 through 2018.

p < 0.01, which is statistically significant(Null hypothesis significance test)
The p-value is 0.0067.^Show 0.0067190647283581630000000000
The p-value is a measure of how probable it is that we would randomly find a result this extreme.^Note More specifically the p-value is a measure of how probable it is that we would randomly find a result this extreme if we had only tested one pair of variables one time.

But I am a p-villain. I absolutely did not test only one pair of variables one time. I correlated hundreds of millions of pairs of variables. I threw boatloads of data into an industrial-sized blender to find this correlation.

Who is going to stop me? p-value reporting doesn't require me to report how many calculations I had to go through in order to find a low p-value!
On average, you will find a correaltion as strong as 0.86 in 0.67% of random cases. Said differently, if you correlated 149 random variables^Note Which I absolutely did.
with the same 7 degrees of freedom, ^Note Degrees of freedom is a measure of how many free components we are testing. In this case it is 7 because we have two variables measured over a period of 8 years. It's just the number of years minus ( the number of variables minus one ), which in this case simplifies to the number of years minus one.
you would randomly expect to find a correlation as strong as this one.

[ 0.38, 0.97 ] 95% correlation confidence interval (using the Fisher z-transformation)
^{Read more about the confidence interval} The confidence interval is an estimate the range of the value of the correlation coefficient, using the correlation itself as an input. The values are meant to be the low and high end of the correlation coefficient with 95% confidence.

This one is a bit more complciated than the other calculations, but I include it because many people have been pushing for confidence intervals instead of p-value calculations (for example: NEJM. However, if you are dredging data, you can reliably find yourself in the 5%. That's my goal!

All values for the years included above: ^Note If I were being very sneaky, I could trim years from the beginning or end of the datasets to increase the correlation on some pairs of variables. I don't do that because there are already plenty of correlations in my database without monkeying with the years.

Still, sometimes one of the variables has more years of data available than the other. This page only shows the overlapping years. To see all the years, click on "See what else correlates with..." link above.

	1982	1984	1990	2002	2006	2012	2014	2018
Popularity of the first name Elisa (Babies born)	724	646	601	559	542	854	619	690
Votes for Libertarian Senators in Montana (Total votes)	12412	9143	7937	10420	10377	31892	7933	14545

Why this works

Data dredging: I have 25,153 variables in my database. I compare all these variables against each other to find ones that randomly match up. That's 632,673,409 correlation calculations! This is called “data dredging.” Instead of starting with a hypothesis and testing it, I instead abused the data to see what correlations shake out. It’s a dangerous way to go about analysis, because any sufficiently large dataset will yield strong correlations completely at random.
Lack of causal connection: There is probably^Note Because these pages are automatically generated, it's possible that the two variables you are viewing are in fact causually related. I take steps to prevent the obvious ones from showing on the site (I don't let data about the weather in one city correlate with the weather in a neighboring city, for example), but sometimes they still pop up. If they are related, cool! You found a loophole.
no direct connection between these variables, despite what the AI says above. This is exacerbated by the fact that I used "Years" as the base variable. Lots of things happen in a year that are not related to each other! Most studies would use something like "one person" in stead of "one year" to be the "thing" studied.
Observations not independent: For many variables, sequential years are not independent of each other. If a population of people is continuously doing something every day, there is no reason to think they would suddenly change how they are doing that thing on January 1. A simple^Note Personally I don't find any p-value calculation to be 'simple,' but you know what I mean.
p-value calculation does not take this into account, so mathematically it appears less probable than it really is.
Very low n: There are not many data points included in this analysis. Even if the p-value is high, we should be suspicious of using so few datapoints in a correlation.
Y-axis doesn't start at zero: I truncated the Y-axes of the graph above. I also used a line graph, which makes the visual connection stand out more than it deserves. ^Note Nothing against line graphs. They are great at telling a story when you have linear data! But visually it is deceptive because the only data is at the points on the graph, not the lines on the graph. In between each point, the data could have been doing anything. Like going for a random walk by itself!
Mathematically what I showed is true, but it is intentionally misleading. Below is the same chart but with both Y-axes starting at zero.

Try it yourself

You can calculate the values on this page on your own! Try running the Python code to see the calculation results. ^{Show the steps to do this.} Step 1: Download and install Python on your computer.

Step 2: Open a plaintext editor like Notepad and paste the code below into it.

Step 3: Save the file as "calculate_correlation.py" in a place you will remember, like your desktop. Copy the file location to your clipboard. On Windows, you can right-click the file and click "Properties," and then copy what comes after "Location:" As an example, on my computer the location is "C:\Users\tyler\Desktop"

Step 4: Open a command line window. For example, by pressing start and typing "cmd" and them pressing enter.

Step 5: Install the required modules by typing "pip install numpy", then pressing enter, then typing "pip install scipy", then pressing enter.

Step 6: Navigate to the location where you saved the Python file by using the "cd" command. For example, I would type "cd C:\Users\tyler\Desktop" and push enter.

Step 7: Run the Python script by typing "python calculate_correlation.py"

If you run into any issues, I suggest asking ChatGPT to walk you through installing Python and running the code below on your system. Try this question:

"Walk me through installing Python on my computer to run a script that uses scipy and numpy. Go step-by-step and ask me to confirm before moving on. Start by asking me questions about my operating system so that you know how to proceed. Assume I want the simplest installation with the latest version of Python and that I do not currently have any of the necessary elements installed. Remember to only give me one step per response and confirm I have done it before proceeding."

# These modules make it easier to perform the calculation
import numpy as np
from scipy import stats

# We'll define a function that we can call to return the correlation calculations
def calculate_correlation(array1, array2):

    # Calculate Pearson correlation coefficient and p-value
    correlation, p_value = stats.pearsonr(array1, array2)

    # Calculate R-squared as the square of the correlation coefficient
    r_squared = correlation**2

    return correlation, r_squared, p_value

# These are the arrays for the variables shown on this page, but you can modify them to be any two sets of numbers
array_1 = np.array([724,646,601,559,542,854,619,690,])
array_2 = np.array([12412,9143,7937,10420,10377,31892,7933,14545,])
array_1_name = "Popularity of the first name Elisa"
array_2_name = "Votes for Libertarian Senators in Montana"

# Perform the calculation
print(f"Calculating the correlation between {array_1_name} and {array_2_name}...")
correlation, r_squared, p_value = calculate_correlation(array_1, array_2)

# Print the results
print("Correlation Coefficient:", correlation)
print("R-squared:", r_squared)
print("P-value:", p_value)

Reuseable content

You may re-use the images on this page for any purpose, even commercial purposes, without asking for permission. The only requirement is that you attribute Tyler Vigen. ^Note Attribution can take many different forms. If you leave the "tylervigen.com" link in the image, that satisfies it just fine. If you remove it and move it to a footnote, that's fine too. You can also just write "Charts courtesy of Tyler Vigen" at the bottom of an article.

You do not need to attribute "the spurious correlations website," and you don't even need to link here if you don't want to. I don't gain anything from pageviews. There are no ads on this site, there is nothing for sale, and I am not for hire.

For the record, I am just one person. Tyler Vigen, he/him/his. I do have degrees, but they should not go after my name unless you want to annoy my wife. If that is your goal, then go ahead and cite me as "Tyler Vigen, A.A. A.A.S. B.A. J.D." Otherwise it is just "Tyler Vigen."

When spoken, my last name is pronounced "vegan," like I don't eat meat.

Full license details.
For more on re-use permissions, or to get a signed release form, see tylervigen.com/permission.

Download images for these variables:

High resolution line chart ^Note The image linked here is a Scalable Vector Graphic (SVG). It is the highest resolution that is possible to achieve. It scales up beyond the size of the observable universe without pixelating. You do not need to email me asking if I have a higher resolution image. I do not. The physical limitations of our universe prevent me from providing you with an image that is any higher resolution than this one.

If you insert it into a PowerPoint presentation (a tool well-known for managing things that are the scale of the universe), you can right-click > "Ungroup" or "Create Shape" and then edit the lines and text directly. You can also change the colors this way.

Alternatively you can use a tool like Inkscape.
High resolution line chart, optimized for mobile
Alternative high resolution line chart
Scatterplot
Portable line chart (png)
Portable line chart (png), optimized for mobile
Line chart for only Popularity of the first name Elisa
Line chart for only Votes for Libertarian Senators in Montana
AI-generated correlation image
The spurious research paper: Elisa's Elective Effect: A Liberty in Montana

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Correlation ID: 5156 · Black Variable ID: 2815 · Red Variable ID: 26270


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