Spurious correlation #5,078 · View random
A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is Afghanistan's Estimated Opium Production and the second variable is Votes for the Democratic Presidential candidate in New Mexico. The chart goes from 1990 to 2020, and the two variables track closely in value over that time.

A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is Afghanistan's Estimated Opium Production and the second variable is Votes for the Democratic Presidential candidate in New Mexico. The chart goes from 1990 to 2020, and the two variables track closely in value over that time.

Download png, svg

AI explanation

The opium production created a higher demand for poppy-seed bagels, leading to a surge in New Mexico's voter turnout, especially among those who wanted a president with a "flavorful" platform.

^{Show image generation prompt} Model: dalle-3
Prompt: [ Concept art ] An image of a bustling New Mexico bakery, with customers eagerly lined up, reaching out for freshly-baked poppy-seed bagels. The warm, inviting interior features a display of the mouth-watering treats and a sign that reads "Fresh Poppy-Seed Bagels Daily." Through the bakery's window, a line of enthusiastic voters can be seen, casting their ballot. In the background, the vast Afghan landscape is depicted, with fields of vibrant poppy plants swaying in the wind, illustrating the country's high opium production. The depiction should include only scenes, people, and objects, it should not include text or speech bubbles.

This image generation prompt was also generated by AI, using the following sequence:

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You select one of a few potential scene descriptors that seems to go along with the variables described. You respond only with the scene descriptions provided and say nothing else.
User prompt: Here are two variables: Afghanistan's Estimated Opium Production and Votes for the Democrat Presidential candidate in New Mexico. Given these, which of the following image style descriptions seems most appropriate? Pick the one that seems to be related to one of the variables at hand. Please respond with only one of the following potential descriptions: Woodblock painting Oragami Hyper-realistic Cute 2D animation Concept art
ChatGPT: Concept art

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You describe simple visual scenes that depict the two variables stated. You combine both variables into one scene.
User prompt: Please describe a visual scene that prominently depicts both Afghanistan's Estimated Opium Production and Votes for the Democrat Presidential candidate in New Mexico, in the following situation: The opium production created a higher demand for poppy-seed bagels, leading to a surge in New Mexico's voter turnout, especially among those who wanted a president with a "flavorful" platform.. Keep the description simple.
ChatGPT: In a New Mexico bakery, customers line up to buy poppy-seed bagels, their mouths watering at the sight of the freshly-baked treats. As they walk out with bags in hand, they join the long queue of people waiting to vote, eager to support the Democrat presidential candidate who offers a "flavorful" platform. Meanwhile, in Afghanistan, fields of vibrant poppy plants sway in the wind, symbolizing the country's high opium production.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You write and improve image generation prompts for DALLE-3. You maintain the same subjects, but enhance the visuals.
User prompt: Please respond with an image generation prompt that would be likely to create an interesting visual using DALLE-3, using the following style: [ Concept art ] and depicting this scene: In a New Mexico bakery, customers line up to buy poppy-seed bagels, their mouths watering at the sight of the freshly-baked treats. As they walk out with bags in hand, they join the long queue of people waiting to vote, eager to support the Democrat presidential candidate who offers a "flavorful" platform. Meanwhile, in Afghanistan, fields of vibrant poppy plants sway in the wind, symbolizing the country's high opium production. Keep the visual depiction simple. Do not include any words or speech bubbles.
ChatGPT: [ Concept art ] An image of a bustling New Mexico bakery, with customers eagerly lined up, reaching out for freshly-baked poppy-seed bagels. The warm, inviting interior features a display of the mouth-watering treats and a sign that reads "Fresh Poppy-Seed Bagels Daily." Through the bakery's window, a line of enthusiastic voters can be seen, casting their ballot. In the background, the vast Afghan landscape is depicted, with fields of vibrant poppy plants swaying in the wind, illustrating the country's high opium production.

*Variations in the User Prompts from chart to chart are just the result of random number generation in Python. I wrote a few arrays of various styles and methods to ask questions to change up the results. Every time this site writes an explanation or generates an image, the script picks from each at random.

I sequence the requests into multiple prompts because I find GPT 3.5 to perform much better with short, well-managed contexts. Thus, I track the context directly in Python and only ask ChatGPT targeted questions.
^{Show prompt for explanation} Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106 (fine-tuned)
System prompt: You provide humorous responses in the form of plausible sounding explanations for correlations. You assume the correlation is causative for the purpose of the explanation even if it is ridiculous. You do not chat with the user, you only reply with the causal connection explanation and nothing else.
User prompt: Please make up a funny explanation for how an increase in Afghanistan's Estimated Opium Production caused Votes for the Democrat Presidential candidate in New Mexico to increase. Include one good pun.

AI academic paper

(Because p < 0.01)

Poppy Polls: The Correlation Between Afghanistan's Opium Production and Votes for the Democrat Presidential Candidate in New Mexico

Journal of Political Chemometrics

Jan 2024

Reminder: This paper is AI-generated. Not real!

^{Show prompt used to generate this paper} Quick note: This sequence is long and repetitive. That's how the prompt engineering works for this one. I manage the output in Python to format it into this PDF.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a goofy academic researcher writing an academic paper. You follow the rules, but you throw out convention regularly to make jokes and funny asides.You draft a literature review section of an academic research paper, that starts out dry for the first few sentences but then becomes hilarious and goofy.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up a literature review section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Afghanistan's Estimated Opium Production and Votes for the Democrat Presidential candidate in New Mexico. You can't resist a good dad joke. Add a relevant dad joke related to the content every couple of sentences.

Speak in the present tense for this section (the authors find...), as is common in academic research paper literature reviews. Name the sources in a format similar to this: In "Book," the authors find lorem and ipsum.

Make up the lorem and ipsum part, but make it sound related to the topic at hand.

Start by naming serious-sounding studies by authors like Smith, Doe, and Jones - but then quickly devolve. Name some real non-fiction books that would be related to the topic. Then name some real fiction books that sound like they could be related. Then name some movies that you watched that are tangentially related to the topic.

Here is the title and abstract of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
Poppy Polls: The Correlation Between Afghanistan's Opium Production and Votes for the Democrat Presidential Candidate in New Mexico

[[ABSTRACT]]
The relationship between Afghanistan's estimated opium production and voting patterns for the Democrat presidential candidate in New Mexico has long been a perplexing enigma in the field of political science and economics. In this study, we delved into the intriguing connection between these seemingly disparate variables, aiming to uncover any underlying linkages and perhaps even a few poppy surprises along the way.

Utilizing data sourced from the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) alongside the MIT Election Data and Science Lab, Harvard Dataverse, our research team set out to analyze the intricate dance between opium production in Afghanistan and the political preferences of New Mexico voters. With a correlation coefficient of 0.8361115 and a p-value of less than 0.01 for the time span from 1990 to 2020, we were poised to shed light on this unexpected alliance.

Much to our surprise, the data revealed a compelling positive correlation between Afghanistan's opium production levels and the proportion of votes in New Mexico favoring the Democrat presidential candidate. It was a revelation that certainly left us feeling poppy-eyed and pondering the peculiar interconnectedness of global narcotics and regional politics.

In conclusion, our findings unveiled a curious association between poppies and politics, demonstrating that while "opium may be poppy-ular in Afghanistan, it seems to have a political pull in New Mexico!" This study not only underscores the need for further exploration of these unanticipated relationships but also offers a lighthearted reminder that even in scholarly pursuits, a good dad joke can be the poppy-icing on the cake of knowledge.

-------

And here is the introduction section that led to this literature review:
[[INTRODUCTION]]
In the realm of political and economic analysis, there are certain correlations that seem more improbable than finding a four-leaf clover in a field of poppies. One such enigmatic connection that has puzzled scholars and statisticians alike is the bond between Afghanistan's estimated opium production and the voting patterns for the Democrat presidential candidate in New Mexico. It’s a conundrum that makes you wonder, "What do you call a political candidate who's also a botanist? A democrop!"
As we delve into the intricate tapestry of this unexpected relationship, it is essential to recognize the gravity of our endeavor. We tread through fields of data with caution and curiosity, akin to a deer exploring an opium poppy meadow – cautiously intrigued yet acutely aware of the potential hazards. But fear not, for just as a poppyseed bagel brings relish to a breakfast table, our research aims to bring a dash of clarity and perhaps even a sprinkle of humor to this puzzling correlation.
The seemingly distant domains of international narcotics and regional political preferences collide in this study, offering us a chance to unravel what can only be described as a "politically poppy predicament." It's a bit like finding a rare species of flower growing in the midst of a bustling election campaign – unexpected, intriguing, and just a tad bit surreal.
Our pursuit of understanding this link is akin to traversing a botanical maze, where every twist and turn reveals a new facet of the opium-politics association. It's like exploring a field of poppies – at every corner, there's a surprise waiting, much like the unexpected connection between opium production and a specific political denominator. Just as Sherlock Holmes would relish a good mystery, so too do we relish the puzzle of poppies and politicians.
But fear not, dear reader, for although we navigate through the thorny terrain of statistics and political analysis, we are not without a sense of levity. In the words of the great philosopher Plato, “He was a wise man who invented beer,” and we, in a similar vein, strive to infuse our scholarly pursuit with a touch of mirth. So, join us as we embark on this journey, where, much like a field of poppies in full bloom, statistical insights and dad jokes intertwine to shed light on this intriguing correlation between opium production in Afghanistan and the political preferences of New Mexico voters.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]

ChatGPT:
[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]

In "Smith et al.," the authors find a positive correlation between Afghanistan's estimated opium production and the voting patterns for the Democrat presidential candidate in New Mexico. This unexpected relationship prompts further investigation, akin to unearthing a pun in the midst of a serious discussion. Speaking of which, did you hear about the botanist who was also a politician? He was a real democrop – always branching out into new territories.

As we dive deeper into this intriguing connection, it becomes evident that the opium-politics correlation is a bit like finding a hidden treasure in a poppy field – surprising, mysterious, and likely to make you exclaim, "Well, poppy me!"

In a study by "Doe and Jones," statistical analyses reveal a strong association between Afghanistan's opium production levels and the inclination of New Mexico voters towards the Democrat presidential candidate. It's the kind of revelation that leaves you pondering the complexity of human behavior and the whimsical ways in which our votes may be swayed by factors beyond our immediate comprehension. It's like a political game of "opium-opoly" – you roll the dice, and the poppy seeds of fate guide your choice.

Transitioning from serious studies to a more literary exploration, the works of non-fiction authors such as "Nancy Reagan" and "The Opium Wars" shed light on the historical and geopolitical contexts surrounding opium production and its far-reaching implications. These texts provide a sobering backdrop to our lighthearted investigation, much like a poppyseed bagel next to a cup of strong coffee – a serious companion to our whimsical pursuits.

Turning to fictional literature, the plotlines of "The Poppy War" and "The Opium Eater" appear to wander into the realm of opium-related narratives, offering a dramatic and fictionalized take on the subject matter at hand. It's as if the opium fields are blooming with stories, each one more captivating and improbable than the last.

In the realm of cinema, movies such as "American Gangster" and "Traffic" delve into the intricate webs of narcotics and politics, offering a cinematic lens through which to ponder the interplay of opium and power. It's like watching a poppy seed sprout into a full-fledged storyline, with unexpected twists and turns that rival the complexities of our research subject.

And speaking of twists and turns, did you hear about the poppy that got promoted? It was on a "poppy-seed" career trajectory!

Significantly, as we consider the interconnectedness of opium production in Afghanistan and the political preferences of New Mexico voters, it becomes apparent that "opium may be poppy-ular in Afghanistan, but it seems to have a political pull in New Mexico!" This revelation not only underscores the need for further scholarly inquiry but also highlights the delightful interplay between serious academic pursuits and the occasional dad joke. After all, even in scholarly endeavors, a touch of humor can be the poppy-icing on the cake of knowledge.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a goofy academic researcher writing an academic paper. You follow the rules, but you throw out convention regularly to make jokes and funny asides.You draft the methodology section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the methodology section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Afghanistan's Estimated Opium Production and Votes for the Democrat Presidential candidate in New Mexico. You can't resist a good dad joke. Add a relevant dad joke related to the content every couple of sentences.

Your research team collected data from all across the internet, but mostly just used information from UNODC and MIT Election Data and Science Lab, Harvard Dataverse . You used data from 1990 to 2020

Make up the research methods you don't know. Make them a bit goofy and convoluted.

Here is the title, abstract, and introduction of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
Poppy Polls: The Correlation Between Afghanistan's Opium Production and Votes for the Democrat Presidential Candidate in New Mexico

[[ABSTRACT]]
The relationship between Afghanistan's estimated opium production and voting patterns for the Democrat presidential candidate in New Mexico has long been a perplexing enigma in the field of political science and economics. In this study, we delved into the intriguing connection between these seemingly disparate variables, aiming to uncover any underlying linkages and perhaps even a few poppy surprises along the way.

Utilizing data sourced from the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) alongside the MIT Election Data and Science Lab, Harvard Dataverse, our research team set out to analyze the intricate dance between opium production in Afghanistan and the political preferences of New Mexico voters. With a correlation coefficient of 0.8361115 and a p-value of less than 0.01 for the time span from 1990 to 2020, we were poised to shed light on this unexpected alliance.

Much to our surprise, the data revealed a compelling positive correlation between Afghanistan's opium production levels and the proportion of votes in New Mexico favoring the Democrat presidential candidate. It was a revelation that certainly left us feeling poppy-eyed and pondering the peculiar interconnectedness of global narcotics and regional politics.

In conclusion, our findings unveiled a curious association between poppies and politics, demonstrating that while "opium may be poppy-ular in Afghanistan, it seems to have a political pull in New Mexico!" This study not only underscores the need for further exploration of these unanticipated relationships but also offers a lighthearted reminder that even in scholarly pursuits, a good dad joke can be the poppy-icing on the cake of knowledge.

[[INTRODUCTION]]
In the realm of political and economic analysis, there are certain correlations that seem more improbable than finding a four-leaf clover in a field of poppies. One such enigmatic connection that has puzzled scholars and statisticians alike is the bond between Afghanistan's estimated opium production and the voting patterns for the Democrat presidential candidate in New Mexico. It’s a conundrum that makes you wonder, "What do you call a political candidate who's also a botanist? A democrop!"
As we delve into the intricate tapestry of this unexpected relationship, it is essential to recognize the gravity of our endeavor. We tread through fields of data with caution and curiosity, akin to a deer exploring an opium poppy meadow – cautiously intrigued yet acutely aware of the potential hazards. But fear not, for just as a poppyseed bagel brings relish to a breakfast table, our research aims to bring a dash of clarity and perhaps even a sprinkle of humor to this puzzling correlation.
The seemingly distant domains of international narcotics and regional political preferences collide in this study, offering us a chance to unravel what can only be described as a "politically poppy predicament." It's a bit like finding a rare species of flower growing in the midst of a bustling election campaign – unexpected, intriguing, and just a tad bit surreal.
Our pursuit of understanding this link is akin to traversing a botanical maze, where every twist and turn reveals a new facet of the opium-politics association. It's like exploring a field of poppies – at every corner, there's a surprise waiting, much like the unexpected connection between opium production and a specific political denominator. Just as Sherlock Holmes would relish a good mystery, so too do we relish the puzzle of poppies and politicians.
But fear not, dear reader, for although we navigate through the thorny terrain of statistics and political analysis, we are not without a sense of levity. In the words of the great philosopher Plato, “He was a wise man who invented beer,” and we, in a similar vein, strive to infuse our scholarly pursuit with a touch of mirth. So, join us as we embark on this journey, where, much like a field of poppies in full bloom, statistical insights and dad jokes intertwine to shed light on this intriguing correlation between opium production in Afghanistan and the political preferences of New Mexico voters.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[METHODOLOGY]]

ChatGPT:

[[METHODOLOGY]]

To unravel the tangled roots of this opium-politics correlation, our research team employed a methodological approach as colorful and varied as a bouquet of flowers, or a political rally in a poppy field, if you will. We collected a bountiful harvest of data from the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), the MIT Election Data and Science Lab, and the Harvard Dataverse, resembling a team of digital gardeners pruning away at the overgrown vines of information and statistics like a diligent horticulturist tending to a field of poppies.

Our first task was to harvest historical data on estimated opium production in Afghanistan from 1990 to 2020, akin to tracing the growth patterns of a field of poppies over three decades – a task that required meticulous attention to detail and an eye for spotting outliers, much like finding a rare petunia in a sea of marigolds. We juxtaposed this data with voting patterns for the Democrat presidential candidate in New Mexico over the same time frame, as if weaving together strands of political fabric to form a unique tapestry that hints at the intertwining influence of opium and politics.

To ensure the robustness of our analysis, we opted for a quantitative approach, employing statistical methods resembling a gardener using the right combination of tools to tend to a varied and vibrant garden. The data underwent scrutiny through correlation analysis, regression models, and time series analysis. We sought to uncover any underlying patterns and associations between Afghanistan’s opium production and votes for the Democrat presidential candidate in New Mexico that might have been hiding amidst the statistical undergrowth, not unlike stumbling upon a daisy in a dense thicket of data.

Once the statistical underbrush had been navigated, we then employed sophisticated software, much like a high-tech pair of pruning shears, to perform our econometric modeling for a more nuanced examination of the relationship. We incorporated control variables such as socio-economic factors, political dynamics, and regional influences, akin to considering the environmental conditions and climate impacts on a field of poppies, to ensure that our findings were not merely the result of coincidental correlations as rare as finding a blue rose in a garden of red ones.

Furthermore, we scrutinized the data for potential outliers and anomalies, much like a botanist inspecting a garden for genetically modified flowers. The goal was to prune away any data points that might have bloomed anomalously, distorting the true picture of the opium-politics dance. Finally, we subjected our findings to rigorous sensitivity analyses to assess the robustness of our results, much like conducting stress tests on a delicate flower to determine its resilience in adverse conditions.

In the end, our methodology tread a path as winding and intriguing as a labyrinthine garden, where each twist and turn led to a new revelation, much like the unfolding of petals in a blooming poppy, or the unexpected discovery of a politician with a green thumb.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a goofy academic researcher writing an academic paper. You follow the rules, but you throw out convention regularly to make jokes and funny asides.You draft the results section of an academic research paper. You speak in the past tense (you found...).
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the results section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Afghanistan's Estimated Opium Production and Votes for the Democrat Presidential candidate in New Mexico. You can't resist a good dad joke. Add a relevant dad joke related to the content every couple of sentences.

Your research team collected data from all across the internet, but mostly just used information from UNODC and MIT Election Data and Science Lab, Harvard Dataverse .

For the time period 1990 to 2020, you found a correlation 0.8361115, r-squared of 0.6990824, and p < 0.01.

One figure will be included. The figure (Fig. 1) is a scatterplot showing the strong correlation between the two variables. You don't need to specify where; I will add the figure.

Here is the title and abstract of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
Poppy Polls: The Correlation Between Afghanistan's Opium Production and Votes for the Democrat Presidential Candidate in New Mexico

[[ABSTRACT]]
The relationship between Afghanistan's estimated opium production and voting patterns for the Democrat presidential candidate in New Mexico has long been a perplexing enigma in the field of political science and economics. In this study, we delved into the intriguing connection between these seemingly disparate variables, aiming to uncover any underlying linkages and perhaps even a few poppy surprises along the way.

Utilizing data sourced from the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) alongside the MIT Election Data and Science Lab, Harvard Dataverse, our research team set out to analyze the intricate dance between opium production in Afghanistan and the political preferences of New Mexico voters. With a correlation coefficient of 0.8361115 and a p-value of less than 0.01 for the time span from 1990 to 2020, we were poised to shed light on this unexpected alliance.

Much to our surprise, the data revealed a compelling positive correlation between Afghanistan's opium production levels and the proportion of votes in New Mexico favoring the Democrat presidential candidate. It was a revelation that certainly left us feeling poppy-eyed and pondering the peculiar interconnectedness of global narcotics and regional politics.

In conclusion, our findings unveiled a curious association between poppies and politics, demonstrating that while "opium may be poppy-ular in Afghanistan, it seems to have a political pull in New Mexico!" This study not only underscores the need for further exploration of these unanticipated relationships but also offers a lighthearted reminder that even in scholarly pursuits, a good dad joke can be the poppy-icing on the cake of knowledge.

-------

And here is the methodology section that led to this result:
[[METHODOLOGY]]
In the realm of political and economic analysis, there are certain correlations that seem more improbable than finding a four-leaf clover in a field of poppies. One such enigmatic connection that has puzzled scholars and statisticians alike is the bond between Afghanistan's estimated opium production and the voting patterns for the Democrat presidential candidate in New Mexico. It’s a conundrum that makes you wonder, "What do you call a political candidate who's also a botanist? A democrop!"
As we delve into the intricate tapestry of this unexpected relationship, it is essential to recognize the gravity of our endeavor. We tread through fields of data with caution and curiosity, akin to a deer exploring an opium poppy meadow – cautiously intrigued yet acutely aware of the potential hazards. But fear not, for just as a poppyseed bagel brings relish to a breakfast table, our research aims to bring a dash of clarity and perhaps even a sprinkle of humor to this puzzling correlation.
The seemingly distant domains of international narcotics and regional political preferences collide in this study, offering us a chance to unravel what can only be described as a "politically poppy predicament." It's a bit like finding a rare species of flower growing in the midst of a bustling election campaign – unexpected, intriguing, and just a tad bit surreal.
Our pursuit of understanding this link is akin to traversing a botanical maze, where every twist and turn reveals a new facet of the opium-politics association. It's like exploring a field of poppies – at every corner, there's a surprise waiting, much like the unexpected connection between opium production and a specific political denominator. Just as Sherlock Holmes would relish a good mystery, so too do we relish the puzzle of poppies and politicians.
But fear not, dear reader, for although we navigate through the thorny terrain of statistics and political analysis, we are not without a sense of levity. In the words of the great philosopher Plato, “He was a wise man who invented beer,” and we, in a similar vein, strive to infuse our scholarly pursuit with a touch of mirth. So, join us as we embark on this journey, where, much like a field of poppies in full bloom, statistical insights and dad jokes intertwine to shed light on this intriguing correlation between opium production in Afghanistan and the political preferences of New Mexico voters.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[RESULTS]]

ChatGPT:

[[RESULTS]]

Our analysis of the relationship between Afghanistan's estimated opium production and votes for the Democrat presidential candidate in New Mexico yielded some intriguing findings. The correlation coefficient between these two variables stood at a notable 0.8361115, suggesting a strong positive relationship. It's safe to say that statistically speaking, these two variables were quite the "poppin' pair"!

The calculated r-squared value of 0.6990824 indicated that approximately 70% of the variation in votes for the Democrat presidential candidate in New Mexico could be explained by changes in Afghanistan's estimated opium production. In other words, there seemed to be a substantial degree of "opiumfluence" on the voting behavior in New Mexico.

Furthermore, the p-value of less than 0.01 provided robust evidence against the null hypothesis, indicating that the observed correlation was unlikely to have occurred by mere chance. In the realm of statistical significance, this finding was as solid as a poppy stem – no flimsy correlations here!

Upon plotting the data points on a scatterplot (see Fig. 1), the strong positive correlation between Afghanistan's estimated opium production and votes for the Democrat presidential candidate in New Mexico became visually apparent. It was a sight to behold, much like stumbling upon a field of unexpectedly vibrant poppies in the midst of political analysis – a stark reminder that even in serious research, a little whimsy can go a long way.

In summary, our investigation into this puzzling correlation uncovered a surprising and robust association. The evidence pointed to a compelling alignment between Afghanistan's opium production and the inclination of New Mexico voters to support the Democrat presidential candidate. As we sifted through the data, it became clear that while Afghan poppies may have a distinct allure, they also seemed to wield a certain political sway in the Land of Enchantment.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a goofy academic researcher writing an academic paper. You follow the rules, but you throw out convention regularly to make jokes and funny asides.You draft the discussion section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the discussion section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Afghanistan's Estimated Opium Production and Votes for the Democrat Presidential candidate in New Mexico. You can't resist a good dad joke. Add a relevant dad joke related to the content every couple of sentences.

Limit your response to 500 tokens.

Here are the title, abstract, literature review, and results sections. Please harken back to 1-2 of the goofy items in the literature review, but pretend to take them completely seriously. Discuss how your results supported the prior research.

Do not write a conclusion. I will add a conclusion after this.

[[TITLE]]
Poppy Polls: The Correlation Between Afghanistan's Opium Production and Votes for the Democrat Presidential Candidate in New Mexico

[[ABSTRACT]]
The relationship between Afghanistan's estimated opium production and voting patterns for the Democrat presidential candidate in New Mexico has long been a perplexing enigma in the field of political science and economics. In this study, we delved into the intriguing connection between these seemingly disparate variables, aiming to uncover any underlying linkages and perhaps even a few poppy surprises along the way.

Utilizing data sourced from the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) alongside the MIT Election Data and Science Lab, Harvard Dataverse, our research team set out to analyze the intricate dance between opium production in Afghanistan and the political preferences of New Mexico voters. With a correlation coefficient of 0.8361115 and a p-value of less than 0.01 for the time span from 1990 to 2020, we were poised to shed light on this unexpected alliance.

Much to our surprise, the data revealed a compelling positive correlation between Afghanistan's opium production levels and the proportion of votes in New Mexico favoring the Democrat presidential candidate. It was a revelation that certainly left us feeling poppy-eyed and pondering the peculiar interconnectedness of global narcotics and regional politics.

In conclusion, our findings unveiled a curious association between poppies and politics, demonstrating that while "opium may be poppy-ular in Afghanistan, it seems to have a political pull in New Mexico!" This study not only underscores the need for further exploration of these unanticipated relationships but also offers a lighthearted reminder that even in scholarly pursuits, a good dad joke can be the poppy-icing on the cake of knowledge.

[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]
In "Smith et al.," the authors find a positive correlation between Afghanistan's estimated opium production and the voting patterns for the Democrat presidential candidate in New Mexico. This unexpected relationship prompts further investigation, akin to unearthing a pun in the midst of a serious discussion. Speaking of which, did you hear about the botanist who was also a politician? He was a real democrop – always branching out into new territories.
As we dive deeper into this intriguing connection, it becomes evident that the opium-politics correlation is a bit like finding a hidden treasure in a poppy field – surprising, mysterious, and likely to make you exclaim, "Well, poppy me!"
In a study by "Doe and Jones," statistical analyses reveal a strong association between Afghanistan's opium production levels and the inclination of New Mexico voters towards the Democrat presidential candidate. It's the kind of revelation that leaves you pondering the complexity of human behavior and the whimsical ways in which our votes may be swayed by factors beyond our immediate comprehension. It's like a political game of "opium-opoly" – you roll the dice, and the poppy seeds of fate guide your choice.
Transitioning from serious studies to a more literary exploration, the works of non-fiction authors such as "Nancy Reagan" and "The Opium Wars" shed light on the historical and geopolitical contexts surrounding opium production and its far-reaching implications. These texts provide a sobering backdrop to our lighthearted investigation, much like a poppyseed bagel next to a cup of strong coffee – a serious companion to our whimsical pursuits.
Turning to fictional literature, the plotlines of "The Poppy War" and "The Opium Eater" appear to wander into the realm of opium-related narratives, offering a dramatic and fictionalized take on the subject matter at hand. It's as if the opium fields are blooming with stories, each one more captivating and improbable than the last.
In the realm of cinema, movies such as "American Gangster" and "Traffic" delve into the intricate webs of narcotics and politics, offering a cinematic lens through which to ponder the interplay of opium and power. It's like watching a poppy seed sprout into a full-fledged storyline, with unexpected twists and turns that rival the complexities of our research subject.
And speaking of twists and turns, did you hear about the poppy that got promoted? It was on a "poppy-seed" career trajectory!
Significantly, as we consider the interconnectedness of opium production in Afghanistan and the political preferences of New Mexico voters, it becomes apparent that "opium may be poppy-ular in Afghanistan, but it seems to have a political pull in New Mexico!" This revelation not only underscores the need for further scholarly inquiry but also highlights the delightful interplay between serious academic pursuits and the occasional dad joke. After all, even in scholarly endeavors, a touch of humor can be the poppy-icing on the cake of knowledge.

[[RESULTS]]
Our analysis of the relationship between Afghanistan's estimated opium production and votes for the Democrat presidential candidate in New Mexico yielded some intriguing findings. The correlation coefficient between these two variables stood at a notable 0.8361115, suggesting a strong positive relationship. It's safe to say that statistically speaking, these two variables were quite the "poppin' pair"!
The calculated r-squared value of 0.6990824 indicated that approximately 70% of the variation in votes for the Democrat presidential candidate in New Mexico could be explained by changes in Afghanistan's estimated opium production. In other words, there seemed to be a substantial degree of "opiumfluence" on the voting behavior in New Mexico.
Furthermore, the p-value of less than 0.01 provided robust evidence against the null hypothesis, indicating that the observed correlation was unlikely to have occurred by mere chance. In the realm of statistical significance, this finding was as solid as a poppy stem – no flimsy correlations here!
Upon plotting the data points on a scatterplot (see Fig. 1), the strong positive correlation between Afghanistan's estimated opium production and votes for the Democrat presidential candidate in New Mexico became visually apparent. It was a sight to behold, much like stumbling upon a field of unexpectedly vibrant poppies in the midst of political analysis – a stark reminder that even in serious research, a little whimsy can go a long way.
In summary, our investigation into this puzzling correlation uncovered a surprising and robust association. The evidence pointed to a compelling alignment between Afghanistan's opium production and the inclination of New Mexico voters to support the Democrat presidential candidate. As we sifted through the data, it became clear that while Afghan poppies may have a distinct allure, they also seemed to wield a certain political sway in the Land of Enchantment.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[DISCUSSION]]

ChatGPT:

[[DISCUSSION]]

The findings of our study unveiled a significant and positive correlation between Afghanistan's estimated opium production and votes for the Democrat presidential candidate in New Mexico. It appears that the influence of Afghan poppies extends far beyond their traditional domains, venturing into the political landscapes of the Land of Enchantment. The result was certainly an eye-opiener, akin to stumbling upon a poppy field just when you thought you were lost in the political wilderness.

Our results align with previous research by Smith et al., which also found a positive correlation between opium production in Afghanistan and support for the Democrat presidential candidate in New Mexico. This unexpected link, much like a dad joke at a scholarly conference, continues to baffle and amuse in equal measure. It seems that when it comes to political preferences, opium may have a persistent and far-reaching pull, much like an exceedingly punderful pun.

The robust statistical evidence supporting this correlation echoes the surprise and delight of finding a well-crafted dad joke in the midst of serious academic discourse. With a correlation coefficient of 0.8361115 and a p-value of less than 0.01, our results stand as a testament to the strong and consistent relationship between opium production in Afghanistan and voting behavior in New Mexico. This is no flimsy correlation; it's as sturdy as a well-rooted poppy plant in full bloom.

It's worth noting that while our findings may seem amusing in their unexpected juxtaposition of narcotics and politics, they offer a lighthearted reminder of the whimsical interconnectedness of global phenomena. Just as a good dad joke can bring levity to a serious conversation, our study highlights the need for interdisciplinary exploration and a willingness to uncover unconventional connections in the world of research. After all, sometimes the most unlikely pairings yield the most fascinating insights.

In closing, our research not only provides a poppy-ful contribution to the understanding of this unique correlation but also serves as a reminder that amidst the rigors of scholarly pursuit, a well-placed pun or dad joke can offer a moment of unexpected delight. And in the spirit of blending academic rigor with lighthearted humor, we invite further exploration into the curious alliance between Afghan poppies and New Mexico's political preferences, for as we've discovered, sometimes the most unexpected connections lead to the most captivating revelations.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a goofy academic researcher writing an academic paper. You follow the rules, but you throw out convention regularly to make jokes and funny asides.You draft the discussion section of goofy academic research papers that sounds like it belongs based on the title and abstract provided.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up a short conclusion of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Afghanistan's Estimated Opium Production and Votes for the Democrat Presidential candidate in New Mexico. You can't resist a good dad joke. Add a relevant dad joke related to the content every couple of sentences.

Limit your response to 300 tokens. At the very end, assert that no more research is needed in this area.

Here are the title, abstract, introduction, and results sections.
[[TITLE]]
Poppy Polls: The Correlation Between Afghanistan's Opium Production and Votes for the Democrat Presidential Candidate in New Mexico

[[ABSTRACT]]
The relationship between Afghanistan's estimated opium production and voting patterns for the Democrat presidential candidate in New Mexico has long been a perplexing enigma in the field of political science and economics. In this study, we delved into the intriguing connection between these seemingly disparate variables, aiming to uncover any underlying linkages and perhaps even a few poppy surprises along the way.

Utilizing data sourced from the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) alongside the MIT Election Data and Science Lab, Harvard Dataverse, our research team set out to analyze the intricate dance between opium production in Afghanistan and the political preferences of New Mexico voters. With a correlation coefficient of 0.8361115 and a p-value of less than 0.01 for the time span from 1990 to 2020, we were poised to shed light on this unexpected alliance.

Much to our surprise, the data revealed a compelling positive correlation between Afghanistan's opium production levels and the proportion of votes in New Mexico favoring the Democrat presidential candidate. It was a revelation that certainly left us feeling poppy-eyed and pondering the peculiar interconnectedness of global narcotics and regional politics.

In conclusion, our findings unveiled a curious association between poppies and politics, demonstrating that while "opium may be poppy-ular in Afghanistan, it seems to have a political pull in New Mexico!" This study not only underscores the need for further exploration of these unanticipated relationships but also offers a lighthearted reminder that even in scholarly pursuits, a good dad joke can be the poppy-icing on the cake of knowledge.

[[INTRDUCTION]]
In the realm of political and economic analysis, there are certain correlations that seem more improbable than finding a four-leaf clover in a field of poppies. One such enigmatic connection that has puzzled scholars and statisticians alike is the bond between Afghanistan's estimated opium production and the voting patterns for the Democrat presidential candidate in New Mexico. It’s a conundrum that makes you wonder, "What do you call a political candidate who's also a botanist? A democrop!"
As we delve into the intricate tapestry of this unexpected relationship, it is essential to recognize the gravity of our endeavor. We tread through fields of data with caution and curiosity, akin to a deer exploring an opium poppy meadow – cautiously intrigued yet acutely aware of the potential hazards. But fear not, for just as a poppyseed bagel brings relish to a breakfast table, our research aims to bring a dash of clarity and perhaps even a sprinkle of humor to this puzzling correlation.
The seemingly distant domains of international narcotics and regional political preferences collide in this study, offering us a chance to unravel what can only be described as a "politically poppy predicament." It's a bit like finding a rare species of flower growing in the midst of a bustling election campaign – unexpected, intriguing, and just a tad bit surreal.
Our pursuit of understanding this link is akin to traversing a botanical maze, where every twist and turn reveals a new facet of the opium-politics association. It's like exploring a field of poppies – at every corner, there's a surprise waiting, much like the unexpected connection between opium production and a specific political denominator. Just as Sherlock Holmes would relish a good mystery, so too do we relish the puzzle of poppies and politicians.
But fear not, dear reader, for although we navigate through the thorny terrain of statistics and political analysis, we are not without a sense of levity. In the words of the great philosopher Plato, “He was a wise man who invented beer,” and we, in a similar vein, strive to infuse our scholarly pursuit with a touch of mirth. So, join us as we embark on this journey, where, much like a field of poppies in full bloom, statistical insights and dad jokes intertwine to shed light on this intriguing correlation between opium production in Afghanistan and the political preferences of New Mexico voters.

[[RESULTS]]
Our analysis of the relationship between Afghanistan's estimated opium production and votes for the Democrat presidential candidate in New Mexico yielded some intriguing findings. The correlation coefficient between these two variables stood at a notable 0.8361115, suggesting a strong positive relationship. It's safe to say that statistically speaking, these two variables were quite the "poppin' pair"!
The calculated r-squared value of 0.6990824 indicated that approximately 70% of the variation in votes for the Democrat presidential candidate in New Mexico could be explained by changes in Afghanistan's estimated opium production. In other words, there seemed to be a substantial degree of "opiumfluence" on the voting behavior in New Mexico.
Furthermore, the p-value of less than 0.01 provided robust evidence against the null hypothesis, indicating that the observed correlation was unlikely to have occurred by mere chance. In the realm of statistical significance, this finding was as solid as a poppy stem – no flimsy correlations here!
Upon plotting the data points on a scatterplot (see Fig. 1), the strong positive correlation between Afghanistan's estimated opium production and votes for the Democrat presidential candidate in New Mexico became visually apparent. It was a sight to behold, much like stumbling upon a field of unexpectedly vibrant poppies in the midst of political analysis – a stark reminder that even in serious research, a little whimsy can go a long way.
In summary, our investigation into this puzzling correlation uncovered a surprising and robust association. The evidence pointed to a compelling alignment between Afghanistan's opium production and the inclination of New Mexico voters to support the Democrat presidential candidate. As we sifted through the data, it became clear that while Afghan poppies may have a distinct allure, they also seemed to wield a certain political sway in the Land of Enchantment.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[CONCLUSION]]

ChatGPT:

[[CONCLUSION]]

In conclusion, our examination of the perplexing correlation between Afghanistan's estimated opium production and votes for the Democrat presidential candidate in New Mexico has not only shed light on this unexpected alliance but also left us with a bounty of poppy-themed puns. It appears that when it comes to statistical relationships, opium and politics indeed make for a "poppin' pair!"

The positive correlation coefficient of 0.8361115 reinforces the notion that there's a strong connection between these variables, making it clear that in the world of statistical analysis, these two factors are as inseparable as seeds on a poppy bagel. It's like a statistical love story – poppies meet politics, and sparks fly!

With an r-squared value of 0.6990824 and a p-value of less than 0.01, we can confidently say that the association observed is as sturdy as a poppy stem and as significant as a blooming flower in a field of data points. It seems that in the intricate dance of politics and poppies, the steps are not only noticeable but also quite catchy.

So, as we bid adieu to our research, we leave you with a parting dad joke: "What did the poppy say to the politician? You’ve got my vote, you’re bloomin' marvelous!"

In the grand scheme of scholarly pursuits, our study not only calls for further investigation into these unexpected relationships but also highlights the importance of adding a touch of humor to the often serious discourse of academic research. As we navigate through the field of statistics and political analysis, we do so with a sense of light-heartedness, recognizing that even in the pursuit of knowledge, a good dad joke can be the sweet nectar amidst a field of poppies.

With all factors considered, it's safe to say that no more research is needed in this area. We've unearthed a correlation that is as robust as it is unexpected, and we can rest assured that in the world of political and economic analysis, the opium-politics alliance in New Mexico is indeed a field worth exploring. And with that, we sign off, confident in the knowledge that in the realm of scholarly pursuits, a little humor can be the unexpected cherry on top of a complex statistical sundae.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide fictional names of academic journals. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide the name of a funny but plausible sounding research, scientific, or academic journal that would publish a paper entited Poppy Polls: The Correlation Between Afghanistan's Opium Production and Votes for the Democrat Presidential Candidate in New Mexico. Respond only with the name of a fictional academic journal.

ChatGPT:

Journal of Political Chemometrics

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide fictional names of nonprofit research organizations and associations. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide the name of a funny but plausible sounding nonprofit, academic, or scientific association or organization that would sponsor research that resulted in a paper entited Poppy Polls: The Correlation Between Afghanistan's Opium Production and Votes for the Democrat Presidential Candidate in New Mexico. Respond only with the name of a fictional organization.

ChatGPT:

The Institute for Global Agricultural Research and Socio-Political Integration

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide potential search keywords separated by commas. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide potential search keywords for a paper titled Poppy Polls: The Correlation Between Afghanistan's Opium Production and Votes for the Democrat Presidential Candidate in New Mexico with an abstract of The relationship between Afghanistan's estimated opium production and voting patterns for the Democrat presidential candidate in New Mexico has long been a perplexing enigma in the field of political science and economics. In this study, we delved into the intriguing connection between these seemingly disparate variables, aiming to uncover any underlying linkages and perhaps even a few poppy surprises along the way.
Utilizing data sourced from the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) alongside the MIT Election Data and Science Lab, Harvard Dataverse, our research team set out to analyze the intricate dance between opium production in Afghanistan and the political preferences of New Mexico voters. With a correlation coefficient of 0.8361115 and a p-value of less than 0.01 for the time span from 1990 to 2020, we were poised to shed light on this unexpected alliance.
Much to our surprise, the data revealed a compelling positive correlation between Afghanistan's opium production levels and the proportion of votes in New Mexico favoring the Democrat presidential candidate. It was a revelation that certainly left us feeling poppy-eyed and pondering the peculiar interconnectedness of global narcotics and regional politics.
In conclusion, our findings unveiled a curious association between poppies and politics, demonstrating that while "opium may be poppy-ular in Afghanistan, it seems to have a political pull in New Mexico!" This study not only underscores the need for further exploration of these unanticipated relationships but also offers a lighthearted reminder that even in scholarly pursuits, a good dad joke can be the poppy-icing on the cake of knowledge.

ChatGPT:

opium production, New Mexico voting patterns, Democrat presidential candidate, correlation analysis, Afghanistan, political preferences, United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, MIT Election Data and Science Lab, Harvard Dataverse, narcotics and politics, opium production levels, global narcotics, regional politics, poppy-ular, political influence, scholarly research, dad jokes

*There is a bunch of Python happening behind the scenes to turn this prompt sequence into a PDF.

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Data details

Afghanistan's Estimated Opium Production
Source: UNODC
See what else correlates with Afghanistan's Estimated Opium Production

Votes for the Democratic Presidential candidate in New Mexico
Detailed data title: Percentage of all votes cast for the Democrat Presidential candidate in New Mexico
Source: MIT Election Data and Science Lab, Harvard Dataverse
See what else correlates with Votes for the Democratic Presidential candidate in New Mexico

Correlation r = 0.8361115 (Pearson correlation coefficient)
Correlation is a measure of how much the variables move together. If it is 0.99, when one goes up the other goes up. If it is 0.02, the connection is very weak or non-existent. If it is -0.99, then when one goes up the other goes down. If it is 1.00, you probably messed up your correlation function.

r² = 0.6990824 (Coefficient of determination)
This means 69.9% of the change in the one variable (i.e., Votes for the Democratic Presidential candidate in New Mexico) is predictable based on the change in the other (i.e., Afghanistan's Estimated Opium Production) over the 8 years from 1990 through 2020.

p < 0.01, which is statistically significant(Null hypothesis significance test)
The p-value is 0.0097.^Show 0.0096965421926192160000000000
The p-value is a measure of how probable it is that we would randomly find a result this extreme.^Note More specifically the p-value is a measure of how probable it is that we would randomly find a result this extreme if we had only tested one pair of variables one time.

But I am a p-villain. I absolutely did not test only one pair of variables one time. I correlated hundreds of millions of pairs of variables. I threw boatloads of data into an industrial-sized blender to find this correlation.

Who is going to stop me? p-value reporting doesn't require me to report how many calculations I had to go through in order to find a low p-value!
On average, you will find a correaltion as strong as 0.84 in 0.97% of random cases. Said differently, if you correlated 103 random variables^Note Which I absolutely did.
with the same 7 degrees of freedom, ^Note Degrees of freedom is a measure of how many free components we are testing. In this case it is 7 because we have two variables measured over a period of 8 years. It's just the number of years minus ( the number of variables minus one ), which in this case simplifies to the number of years minus one.
you would randomly expect to find a correlation as strong as this one.

[ 0.32, 0.97 ] 95% correlation confidence interval (using the Fisher z-transformation)
^{Read more about the confidence interval} The confidence interval is an estimate the range of the value of the correlation coefficient, using the correlation itself as an input. The values are meant to be the low and high end of the correlation coefficient with 95% confidence.

This one is a bit more complciated than the other calculations, but I include it because many people have been pushing for confidence intervals instead of p-value calculations (for example: NEJM. However, if you are dredging data, you can reliably find yourself in the 5%. That's my goal!

All values for the years included above: ^Note If I were being very sneaky, I could trim years from the beginning or end of the datasets to increase the correlation on some pairs of variables. I don't do that because there are already plenty of correlations in my database without monkeying with the years.

Still, sometimes one of the variables has more years of data available than the other. This page only shows the overlapping years. To see all the years, click on "See what else correlates with..." link above.

	1992	1996	2000	2004	2008	2012	2016	2020
Afghanistan's Estimated Opium Production (Metric tons)	1970	2248	3276	4200	7700	3700	4800	6300
Votes for the Democratic Presidential candidate in New Mexico (Percentage of votes)	45.8988	49.1832	47.9086	49.0467	56.9075	52.9928	48.2556	54.2893

Why this works

Data dredging: I have 25,153 variables in my database. I compare all these variables against each other to find ones that randomly match up. That's 632,673,409 correlation calculations! This is called “data dredging.” Instead of starting with a hypothesis and testing it, I instead abused the data to see what correlations shake out. It’s a dangerous way to go about analysis, because any sufficiently large dataset will yield strong correlations completely at random.
Lack of causal connection: There is probably^Note Because these pages are automatically generated, it's possible that the two variables you are viewing are in fact causually related. I take steps to prevent the obvious ones from showing on the site (I don't let data about the weather in one city correlate with the weather in a neighboring city, for example), but sometimes they still pop up. If they are related, cool! You found a loophole.
no direct connection between these variables, despite what the AI says above. This is exacerbated by the fact that I used "Years" as the base variable. Lots of things happen in a year that are not related to each other! Most studies would use something like "one person" in stead of "one year" to be the "thing" studied.
Observations not independent: For many variables, sequential years are not independent of each other. If a population of people is continuously doing something every day, there is no reason to think they would suddenly change how they are doing that thing on January 1. A simple^Note Personally I don't find any p-value calculation to be 'simple,' but you know what I mean.
p-value calculation does not take this into account, so mathematically it appears less probable than it really is.
Very low n: There are not many data points included in this analysis. Even if the p-value is high, we should be suspicious of using so few datapoints in a correlation.
Y-axis doesn't start at zero: I truncated the Y-axes of the graph above. I also used a line graph, which makes the visual connection stand out more than it deserves. ^Note Nothing against line graphs. They are great at telling a story when you have linear data! But visually it is deceptive because the only data is at the points on the graph, not the lines on the graph. In between each point, the data could have been doing anything. Like going for a random walk by itself!
Mathematically what I showed is true, but it is intentionally misleading. Below is the same chart but with both Y-axes starting at zero.

Try it yourself

You can calculate the values on this page on your own! Try running the Python code to see the calculation results. ^{Show the steps to do this.} Step 1: Download and install Python on your computer.

Step 2: Open a plaintext editor like Notepad and paste the code below into it.

Step 3: Save the file as "calculate_correlation.py" in a place you will remember, like your desktop. Copy the file location to your clipboard. On Windows, you can right-click the file and click "Properties," and then copy what comes after "Location:" As an example, on my computer the location is "C:\Users\tyler\Desktop"

Step 4: Open a command line window. For example, by pressing start and typing "cmd" and them pressing enter.

Step 5: Install the required modules by typing "pip install numpy", then pressing enter, then typing "pip install scipy", then pressing enter.

Step 6: Navigate to the location where you saved the Python file by using the "cd" command. For example, I would type "cd C:\Users\tyler\Desktop" and push enter.

Step 7: Run the Python script by typing "python calculate_correlation.py"

If you run into any issues, I suggest asking ChatGPT to walk you through installing Python and running the code below on your system. Try this question:

"Walk me through installing Python on my computer to run a script that uses scipy and numpy. Go step-by-step and ask me to confirm before moving on. Start by asking me questions about my operating system so that you know how to proceed. Assume I want the simplest installation with the latest version of Python and that I do not currently have any of the necessary elements installed. Remember to only give me one step per response and confirm I have done it before proceeding."

# These modules make it easier to perform the calculation
import numpy as np
from scipy import stats

# We'll define a function that we can call to return the correlation calculations
def calculate_correlation(array1, array2):

    # Calculate Pearson correlation coefficient and p-value
    correlation, p_value = stats.pearsonr(array1, array2)

    # Calculate R-squared as the square of the correlation coefficient
    r_squared = correlation**2

    return correlation, r_squared, p_value

# These are the arrays for the variables shown on this page, but you can modify them to be any two sets of numbers
array_1 = np.array([1970,2248,3276,4200,7700,3700,4800,6300,])
array_2 = np.array([45.8988,49.1832,47.9086,49.0467,56.9075,52.9928,48.2556,54.2893,])
array_1_name = "Afghanistan's Estimated Opium Production"
array_2_name = "Votes for the Democratic Presidential candidate in New Mexico"

# Perform the calculation
print(f"Calculating the correlation between {array_1_name} and {array_2_name}...")
correlation, r_squared, p_value = calculate_correlation(array_1, array_2)

# Print the results
print("Correlation Coefficient:", correlation)
print("R-squared:", r_squared)
print("P-value:", p_value)

Reuseable content

You may re-use the images on this page for any purpose, even commercial purposes, without asking for permission. The only requirement is that you attribute Tyler Vigen. ^Note Attribution can take many different forms. If you leave the "tylervigen.com" link in the image, that satisfies it just fine. If you remove it and move it to a footnote, that's fine too. You can also just write "Charts courtesy of Tyler Vigen" at the bottom of an article.

You do not need to attribute "the spurious correlations website," and you don't even need to link here if you don't want to. I don't gain anything from pageviews. There are no ads on this site, there is nothing for sale, and I am not for hire.

For the record, I am just one person. Tyler Vigen, he/him/his. I do have degrees, but they should not go after my name unless you want to annoy my wife. If that is your goal, then go ahead and cite me as "Tyler Vigen, A.A. A.A.S. B.A. J.D." Otherwise it is just "Tyler Vigen."

When spoken, my last name is pronounced "vegan," like I don't eat meat.

Full license details.
For more on re-use permissions, or to get a signed release form, see tylervigen.com/permission.

Download images for these variables:

High resolution line chart ^Note The image linked here is a Scalable Vector Graphic (SVG). It is the highest resolution that is possible to achieve. It scales up beyond the size of the observable universe without pixelating. You do not need to email me asking if I have a higher resolution image. I do not. The physical limitations of our universe prevent me from providing you with an image that is any higher resolution than this one.

If you insert it into a PowerPoint presentation (a tool well-known for managing things that are the scale of the universe), you can right-click > "Ungroup" or "Create Shape" and then edit the lines and text directly. You can also change the colors this way.

Alternatively you can use a tool like Inkscape.
High resolution line chart, optimized for mobile
Alternative high resolution line chart
Scatterplot
Portable line chart (png)
Portable line chart (png), optimized for mobile
Line chart for only Afghanistan's Estimated Opium Production
Line chart for only Votes for the Democratic Presidential candidate in New Mexico
AI-generated correlation image
The spurious research paper: Poppy Polls: The Correlation Between Afghanistan's Opium Production and Votes for the Democrat Presidential Candidate in New Mexico

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Correlation ID: 5078 · Black Variable ID: 36 · Red Variable ID: 26139


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