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AI explanation

^{Show image generation prompt} Model: dalle-3
Prompt: [An image that looks like it is a scene from a Pixar movie] A colorful, sun-dappled view of a West Virginia backyard. A picnic table is the centerpiece, with a group of anthropomorphic animals gathered around it. Squirrels, raccoons, and chipmunks sit together, sharing a bowl of mixed tree nuts – almonds, cashews, and walnuts. As they munch on the nuts, their eyes light up with joy and laughter, and the atmosphere is filled with a sense of conviviality. In the background, a large red banner with the Republican party symbol flutters in the breeze. A charismatic red squirrel, representing the Republican presidential candidate, stands atop a small platform, making a passionate speech about a "butter" future, accompanied by resolute gestures and nods. The audience of animals cheers and nods in agreement, their faces reflecting the sense of unity and hope fostered by the gathering. The scene is infused with warm, golden light and a sense of nostalgia, reminiscent of a heartfelt Pixar movie. The depiction should include only scenes, people, and objects, it should not include text or speech bubbles.

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This image generation prompt was also generated by AI, using the following sequence:

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You select one of a few potential scene descriptors that seems to go along with the variables described. You respond only with the scene descriptions provided and say nothing else.
User prompt: Here are two variables: US Tree Nut Consumption per Person and Votes for the Republican Presidential candidate in West Virginia. Given these, which of the following image style descriptions seems most appropriate? Pick the one that seems to be related to one of the variables at hand. Please respond with only one of the following potential descriptions: An image that looks like it is a scene from a Pixar movie Pop art Surrealism Photorealism Sci-fi fantacy
ChatGPT: An image that looks like it is a scene from a Pixar movie

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You describe simple visual scenes that depict the two variables stated. You combine both variables into one scene.
User prompt: Please describe a visual scene that prominently depicts both US Tree Nut Consumption per Person and Votes for the Republican Presidential candidate in West Virginia, in the following situation: As tree nut consumption rose, more people started cracking up at political jokes, inadvertently swaying their support towards the Republican candidate who promised a “butter" future. “When it comes to politics, it’s all about finding the ‘republican’ right mix of almonds and cashews to win over the voters!”. Keep the description simple.
ChatGPT: Picture a barbeque in West Virginia where people are gathered around a picnic table. On one side, there is a bowl of mixed tree nuts – almonds, cashews, and walnuts. As the tree nut consumption per person increases, more and more people are laughing and chuckling at political jokes. Meanwhile, in the background, a large red banner with the Republican party symbol is visible. The Republican presidential candidate is making a speech, promising a "butter" future, and people are cheering and nodding in agreement, swayed by the laughter and camaraderie fostered by the tree nuts.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You write and improve image generation prompts for DALLE-3. You maintain the same subjects, but enhance the visuals.
User prompt: Please respond with an image generation prompt that would be likely to create an interesting visual using DALLE-3, using the following style: [ An image that looks like it is a scene from a Pixar movie ] and depicting this scene: Picture a barbeque in West Virginia where people are gathered around a picnic table. On one side, there is a bowl of mixed tree nuts – almonds, cashews, and walnuts. As the tree nut consumption per person increases, more and more people are laughing and chuckling at political jokes. Meanwhile, in the background, a large red banner with the Republican party symbol is visible. The Republican presidential candidate is making a speech, promising a "butter" future, and people are cheering and nodding in agreement, swayed by the laughter and camaraderie fostered by the tree nuts. Keep the visual depiction simple. Do not include any words or speech bubbles.
ChatGPT: [An image that looks like it is a scene from a Pixar movie] A colorful, sun-dappled view of a West Virginia backyard. A picnic table is the centerpiece, with a group of anthropomorphic animals gathered around it. Squirrels, raccoons, and chipmunks sit together, sharing a bowl of mixed tree nuts – almonds, cashews, and walnuts. As they munch on the nuts, their eyes light up with joy and laughter, and the atmosphere is filled with a sense of conviviality. In the background, a large red banner with the Republican party symbol flutters in the breeze. A charismatic red squirrel, representing the Republican presidential candidate, stands atop a small platform, making a passionate speech about a "butter" future, accompanied by resolute gestures and nods. The audience of animals cheers and nods in agreement, their faces reflecting the sense of unity and hope fostered by the gathering. The scene is infused with warm, golden light and a sense of nostalgia, reminiscent of a heartfelt Pixar movie.

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*Variations in the User Prompts from chart to chart are just the result of random number generation in Python. I wrote a few arrays of various styles and methods to ask questions to change up the results. Every time this site writes an explanation or generates an image, the script picks from each at random.

I sequence the requests into multiple prompts because I find GPT 3.5 to perform much better with short, well-managed contexts. Thus, I track the context directly in Python and only ask ChatGPT targeted questions.

AI academic paper

Nut Consumption and Republican Presidential Vote: The West Virginia Connection The Journal of Nutty Political Science Jan 2024 Reminder: This paper is AI-generated. Not real!

Problem variable:	Which variable has a problem? US Tree Nut Consumption per Person Votes for the Republican Presidential candidate in West Virginia Neither / both
Issue:	What is the issue? The data is incorrect The chart isn't displaying properly There is a typo The source link is incorrect A calculation is wrong Something else
Additional details: Optional
Confirm you are a human:

Data details

Why this works

1. Data dredging: I have 25,153 variables in my database. I compare all these variables against each other to find ones that randomly match up. That's 632,673,409 correlation calculations! This is called “data dredging.” Instead of starting with a hypothesis and testing it, I instead abused the data to see what correlations shake out. It’s a dangerous way to go about analysis, because any sufficiently large dataset will yield strong correlations completely at random.
2. Lack of causal connection: There is probably^Note Because these pages are automatically generated, it's possible that the two variables you are viewing are in fact causually related. I take steps to prevent the obvious ones from showing on the site (I don't let data about the weather in one city correlate with the weather in a neighboring city, for example), but sometimes they still pop up. If they are related, cool! You found a loophole.
   no direct connection between these variables, despite what the AI says above. This is exacerbated by the fact that I used "Years" as the base variable. Lots of things happen in a year that are not related to each other! Most studies would use something like "one person" in stead of "one year" to be the "thing" studied.
3. Observations not independent: For many variables, sequential years are not independent of each other. If a population of people is continuously doing something every day, there is no reason to think they would suddenly change how they are doing that thing on January 1. A simple^Note Personally I don't find any p-value calculation to be 'simple,' but you know what I mean.
   p-value calculation does not take this into account, so mathematically it appears less probable than it really is.
4. Confounding variable: 2020 is particularly different from the other years on this graph. Confounding variables (like global pandemics) will cause two variables to look connected when in fact a "sneaky third" variable is influencing both of them behind the scenes.
5. Very low n: There are not many data points included in this analysis. Even if the p-value is high, we should be suspicious of using so few datapoints in a correlation.

Try it yourself

# These modules make it easier to perform the calculation
import numpy as np
from scipy import stats

# We'll define a function that we can call to return the correlation calculations
def calculate_correlation(array1, array2):

    # Calculate Pearson correlation coefficient and p-value
    correlation, p_value = stats.pearsonr(array1, array2)

    # Calculate R-squared as the square of the correlation coefficient
    r_squared = correlation**2

    return correlation, r_squared, p_value

# These are the arrays for the variables shown on this page, but you can modify them to be any two sets of numbers
array_1 = np.array([2.61,3.53,3.58,4.18,4.85,5.73,])
array_2 = np.array([336475,423778,397466,417655,489371,545382,])
array_1_name = "US Tree Nut Consumption per Person"
array_2_name = "Votes for the Republican Presidential candidate in West Virginia"

# Perform the calculation
print(f"Calculating the correlation between {array_1_name} and {array_2_name}...")
correlation, r_squared, p_value = calculate_correlation(array_1, array_2)

# Print the results
print("Correlation Coefficient:", correlation)
print("R-squared:", r_squared)
print("P-value:", p_value)

Reuseable content

• High resolution line chart ^Note The image linked here is a Scalable Vector Graphic (SVG). It is the highest resolution that is possible to achieve. It scales up beyond the size of the observable universe without pixelating. You do not need to email me asking if I have a higher resolution image. I do not. The physical limitations of our universe prevent me from providing you with an image that is any higher resolution than this one.
  
  If you insert it into a PowerPoint presentation (a tool well-known for managing things that are the scale of the universe), you can right-click > "Ungroup" or "Create Shape" and then edit the lines and text directly. You can also change the colors this way.
  
  Alternatively you can use a tool like Inkscape.
  
• High resolution line chart, optimized for mobile
• Alternative high resolution line chart
• Scatterplot
• Portable line chart (png)
• Portable line chart (png), optimized for mobile
• Line chart for only US Tree Nut Consumption per Person
• Line chart for only Votes for the Republican Presidential candidate in West Virginia
• AI-generated correlation image
• The spurious research paper: Nut Consumption and Republican Presidential Vote: The West Virginia Connection