Spurious correlation #4,455 · View random
A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is Votes for Republican Senators in Idaho and the second variable is The number of marketing managers in Idaho. The chart goes from 2003 to 2020, and the two variables track closely in value over that time.

A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is Votes for Republican Senators in Idaho and the second variable is The number of marketing managers in Idaho. The chart goes from 2003 to 2020, and the two variables track closely in value over that time.

Download png, svg

AI explanation

As Republican votes for Senators in Idaho increase, there is a corresponding increase in the number of marketing managers in Idaho. This is because the captivating political campaigns inspire individuals to pursue careers in influential decision-making. The fervent debates and strategic advertising tactics indirectly motivate people to excel in the field of marketing. Ultimately, the growing support for Republican Senators creates a ripple effect, leading to a higher demand for professionals who can skillfully maneuver and shape public opinion, much like political candidates themselves. Remember, a well-orchestrated campaign doesn't just win votes – it also wins over consumers.

^{Show image generation prompt} Model: dalle-3
Prompt: An image generating prompt for DALL·E-3 could portray a minimalistic scene of a bustling Idaho town. Within the town, voting booths are swarming with activity as citizens energetically cast their ballots for Republican Senators. Adjacent to this, a sleek office building houses a group of dynamic marketing managers who are fervently strategizing and brainstorming. The creative energy is palpable as the scene captures the bustling essence of a vibrant small town. This minimalist depiction can focus on capturing the essence of democracy and dynamic creativity in the form of visual simplicity. The depiction should include only scenes, people, and objects, it should not include text or speech bubbles.

This image generation prompt was also generated by AI, using the following sequence:

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You select one of a few potential scene descriptors that seems to go along with the variables described. You respond only with the scene descriptions provided and say nothing else.
User prompt: Here are two variables: Republican votes for Senators in Idaho and The number of marketing managers in Idaho. Given these, which of the following image style descriptions seems most appropriate? Pick the one that seems to be related to one of the variables at hand. Please respond with only one of the following potential descriptions: Art nouveau Minimalism Glitch art 3D Pixar Style Cute 2D animation
ChatGPT: Minimalism

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You describe simple visual scenes that depict the two variables stated. You combine both variables into one scene.
User prompt: Please describe a visual scene that prominently depicts both Republican votes for Senators in Idaho and The number of marketing managers in Idaho, in the following situation: As Republican votes for Senators in Idaho increase, there is a corresponding increase in the number of marketing managers in Idaho. This is because the captivating political campaigns inspire individuals to pursue careers in influential decision-making. The fervent debates and strategic advertising tactics indirectly motivate people to excel in the field of marketing. Ultimately, the growing support for Republican Senators creates a ripple effect, leading to a higher demand for professionals who can skillfully maneuver and shape public opinion, much like political candidates themselves. Remember, a well-orchestrated campaign doesn't just win votes – it also wins over consumers.. Keep the description simple.
ChatGPT: In a bustling Idaho town, the local voting booths brim with activity as citizens cast their ballots for Republican Senators. Meanwhile, in a nearby office building, a group of marketing managers strategize and brainstorm, their creative energy palpable. As the number of votes for Republican Senators increases, the vibrant marketing team expands, each new member eager to channel the electrifying political campaigns into impactful consumer engagement. A shared sense of determination radiates through the air, as both the political and marketing worlds thrive in harmony, united by the shared goal of winning hearts and minds.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You write and improve image generation prompts for DALLE-3. You maintain the same subjects, but enhance the visuals.
User prompt: Please respond with an image generation prompt that would be likely to create an interesting visual using DALLE-3, using the following style: [ Minimalism ] and depicting this scene: In a bustling Idaho town, the local voting booths brim with activity as citizens cast their ballots for Republican Senators. Meanwhile, in a nearby office building, a group of marketing managers strategize and brainstorm, their creative energy palpable. As the number of votes for Republican Senators increases, the vibrant marketing team expands, each new member eager to channel the electrifying political campaigns into impactful consumer engagement. A shared sense of determination radiates through the air, as both the political and marketing worlds thrive in harmony, united by the shared goal of winning hearts and minds. Keep the visual depiction simple. Do not include any words or speech bubbles.
ChatGPT: An image generating prompt for DALL·E-3 could portray a minimalistic scene of a bustling Idaho town. Within the town, voting booths are swarming with activity as citizens energetically cast their ballots for Republican Senators. Adjacent to this, a sleek office building houses a group of dynamic marketing managers who are fervently strategizing and brainstorming. The creative energy is palpable as the scene captures the bustling essence of a vibrant small town. This minimalist depiction can focus on capturing the essence of democracy and dynamic creativity in the form of visual simplicity.

*Variations in the User Prompts from chart to chart are just the result of random number generation in Python. I wrote a few arrays of various styles and methods to ask questions to change up the results. Every time this site writes an explanation or generates an image, the script picks from each at random.

I sequence the requests into multiple prompts because I find GPT 3.5 to perform much better with short, well-managed contexts. Thus, I track the context directly in Python and only ask ChatGPT targeted questions.
^{Show prompt for explanation} Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106 (fine-tuned)
System prompt: You provide humorous responses in the form of plausible sounding explanations for correlations. You assume the correlation is causative for the purpose of the explanation even if it is ridiculous. You do not chat with the user, you only reply with the causal connection explanation and nothing else.
User prompt: Please make up a funny explanation for how increases in Republican votes for Senators in Idaho positively influenced The number of marketing managers in Idaho.\Make it sound serious until the end.

AI academic paper

(Because p < 0.01)

A Tale of Red States and Marketing Fates: How Republican Votes Relate to the Number of Idaho Marketing Mates

The Journal of Political Psychology and Regional Marketing

Jan 2024

Reminder: This paper is AI-generated. Not real!

^{Show prompt used to generate this paper} Quick note: This sequence is long and repetitive. That's how the prompt engineering works for this one. I manage the output in Python to format it into this PDF.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a goofy academic researcher writing an academic paper. You follow the rules, but you throw out convention regularly to make jokes and funny asides.You draft the discussion section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the discussion section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Republican votes for Senators in Idaho and The number of marketing managers in Idaho. You can't resist a good dad joke. Add a relevant dad joke related to the content every couple of sentences. Stay serious and dry most of the time, but then occasionally let your wit shine through.

Limit your response to 500 tokens.

Here are the title, abstract, literature review, and results sections. Please harken back to 1-2 of the goofy items in the literature review, but pretend to take them completely seriously. Discuss how your results supported the prior research.

Do not write a conclusion. I will add a conclusion after this.

[[TITLE]]
A Tale of Red States and Marketing Fates: How Republican Votes Relate to the Number of Idaho Marketing Mates

[[ABSTRACT]]
In this study, we sought to uncover the mysterious dance between the number of Republican votes for Senators in Idaho and the population of marketing managers in the Gem State. As our research took flight, we delved into the world of data from MIT Election Data and Science Lab, Harvard Dataverse, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics to assess this nagging question. Our findings revealed a correlation coefficient of 0.9703836 and p < 0.01 for the period spanning 2003 to 2020. This robust statistical relationship illuminated the influence of political inclination on the nature of marketing roles in Idaho, shedding light on the perplexing interplay of politics and professional pursuits.

Our analysis unveiled that, much like a well-crafted dad joke, the Republican votes for Senators in Idaho and the number of marketing managers are tightly woven together. It appears that as the political pendulum swings, so too does the fateful hand of marketing destiny in the potato-rich expanses of Idaho. We hope our findings will provide both scholars and casual observers with an amusing yet thought-provoking insight into the intricate connections that shape our professional landscapes.

[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]
The literature on the nexus between political affiliations and labor market dynamics paints a vivid picture of the tangled web that binds these seemingly disparate realms. In "Smith et al.," the authors find that political preferences can exert a significant influence on local labor markets, shaping the occupational structure and employment patterns with the finesse of a potato farmer tending to their crops. This insight sets the stage for our exploration of the relationship between Republican votes for Senators in Idaho and the number of marketing managers in the state.
Ah, Idaho, where the potatoes are plentiful and the political leanings skew quite red, much like the sun-kissed skin of an Idaho potato ready for harvest. As our investigation ensues, we encounter the work of "Doe and Jones," who illuminate the far-reaching impacts of political inclinations on professional pursuits, urging us to consider the potato salad of factors that shape the labor market landscape.
Now, let's delve into some related non-fiction works that dig into the heart of the matter. "The Marketing Plan Handbook" by Alexander Chernev and "Data-Driven Marketing" by Mark Jeffery offer a serious examination of the strategic ways in which marketing practices intersect with economic landscapes. But fear not, dear reader, we promise to add a dash of whimsy to this academic feast.
On the fictional front, we can draw inspiration from books such as "The Republican Brain" by Chris Mooney and "The Art of Political War and Other Radical Pursuits" by David Horowitz. Though purely fictional in nature, the narratives they weave serve as a metaphorical potato masher in blending the realms of politics and professional endeavors.
And how could we overlook the animated escapades of "The Powerpuff Girls" and "Ben 10," where resilience and strategic thinking drive the protagonists to overcome challenges with superheroic flair? These classic cartoons serve as a reminder that even in the midst of political turmoil, marketing managers can harness their inner superheroes to navigate the ever-changing tides of professional landscapes.
We mustn't forget the formative impact of childhood shows such as "SpongeBob SquarePants" and "Phineas and Ferb" where creative problem-solving and out-of-the-box thinking reign supreme. These playful yet insightful animations highlight the importance of adaptability and innovation, qualities that are equally valuable in the world of marketing and political maneuvering.
So, dear reader, as we embark on this academic journey through the potato fields of politics and the marketing marshes, may we find delight in the unexpected connections that emerge, much like unearthing a hidden potato gem in the rich soil of Idaho.

[[RESULTS]]
The results of our analysis revealed a striking correlation between the number of Republican votes for Senators in Idaho and the population of marketing managers in the state during the period from 2003 to 2020. The correlation coefficient of 0.9703836 indicated a highly positive linear relationship between these two variables. This means that as the number of Republican votes for Senators increased, so did the number of marketing managers in Idaho. It's almost as if one can't talk about Idaho's political landscape without mentioning its marketing fate.
In the immortal words of a true dad, "Why don't skeletons fight each other? They don't have the guts." Just as skeletons may lack the necessary fortitude for fisticuffs, it seems that the number of marketing managers in Idaho lacks the gusto to resist the gravitational pull of Republican votes for Senators.
The r-squared value of 0.9416443 further confirmed the strength of this relationship, indicating that approximately 94.16% of the variation in the number of marketing managers can be explained by the variation in Republican votes for Senators in Idaho. It's a bit like a perfectly executed marketing campaign – almost everything falls into place, and there's very little left to mere chance.
Additionally, the p-value of less than 0.01 provided strong evidence against the null hypothesis of no relationship between these variables. In other words, the probability of observing such a strong correlation by mere chance is less than 1%, which is about as rare as finding a unicorn at a potato farm.
Figure 1 presents a scatterplot illustrating the robust connection between the number of Republican votes for Senators and the population of marketing managers in Idaho. The data points form a near-perfect linear pattern, reminiscent of a perfectly aligned row of potato crops in an Idaho field, yielding a bountiful harvest of statistical significance.
Our findings raise intriguing questions about the interplay of political dynamics and professional pursuits, provoking contemplation as profound as a potato trying to understand the concept of French fries. As we delve deeper into the web of correlations, let us not forget the remarkable impact of political factors on the composition of the labor market, reminding us that even the most unexpected relationships can be uncovered with the right blend of data and analysis.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[DISCUSSION]]

ChatGPT:

[[DISCUSSION]]

Our study has ferreted out a compelling association between Republican votes for Senators in Idaho and the population of marketing managers in the state. As we contemplated the ramifications of our findings, it was as if a light bulb – or should we say, a potato bulb – illuminated the profundity of this connection. Our results align harmoniously with previous research, reaffirming the influence of political predilections on the professional landscape much like how a well-timed dad joke can liven up a conversation.

Returning to the works of "Smith et al." and "Doe and Jones," the threads of their scholarly tapestries now appear in sharper relief. Our research corroborates their assertions, demonstrating that political inclinations can indeed mold the occupational composition of a region. It seems that in the grand theater of labor dynamics, political preferences don't just play a supporting role; they take center stage with the spotlight firmly fixed on their impact.

The robust correlation coefficient of 0.9703836 in our study supports the notion espoused by these preceding researchers, further solidifying the idea that the ebb and flow of political tides can sway the fortunes of professional pursuits. The statistical relationship we've uncovered stands as solid as a potato freshly plucked from the earth, and just as likely to garner an appreciative chuckle from the audience.

Our own study, much like the humble potato, has shed its starchy exterior to reveal the nourishing substance beneath – a nearly perfect linear relationship between Republican votes for Senators and the number of marketing managers in Idaho. It's as if this correlation has been simmering in the stew of Idaho's political and professional spheres, ready to serve up a hearty helping of data-driven insight.

In this vein, our findings serve as a veritable feast for thought, triggering contemplation as vigorous as a potato farmer tilling the fertile soil. By unearthing this strong correlation, we offer a fresh perspective on the intricate dance between political climate and professional roles, presenting a tableau as rich and diverse as Idaho's own agricultural landscape.

Before we peel away from this discussion, let us pause to appreciate the curious interplay of variables, much like the artful interweaving of flavors in a delectable potato salad. Our results beckon us to consider the interconnectedness of seemingly unrelated dimensions of our societal tapestry, reminding us that even the most seemingly disparate elements can harmonize in a symphony of significance.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a goofy academic researcher writing an academic paper. You follow the rules, but you throw out convention regularly to make jokes and funny asides.You draft the discussion section of goofy academic research papers that sounds like it belongs based on the title and abstract provided.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up a short conclusion of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Republican votes for Senators in Idaho and The number of marketing managers in Idaho. You can't resist a good dad joke. Add a relevant dad joke related to the content every couple of sentences. Stay serious and dry most of the time, but then occasionally let your wit shine through.

Limit your response to 300 tokens. At the very end, assert that no more research is needed in this area.

Here are the title, abstract, introduction, and results sections.
[[TITLE]]
A Tale of Red States and Marketing Fates: How Republican Votes Relate to the Number of Idaho Marketing Mates

[[ABSTRACT]]
In this study, we sought to uncover the mysterious dance between the number of Republican votes for Senators in Idaho and the population of marketing managers in the Gem State. As our research took flight, we delved into the world of data from MIT Election Data and Science Lab, Harvard Dataverse, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics to assess this nagging question. Our findings revealed a correlation coefficient of 0.9703836 and p < 0.01 for the period spanning 2003 to 2020. This robust statistical relationship illuminated the influence of political inclination on the nature of marketing roles in Idaho, shedding light on the perplexing interplay of politics and professional pursuits.

Our analysis unveiled that, much like a well-crafted dad joke, the Republican votes for Senators in Idaho and the number of marketing managers are tightly woven together. It appears that as the political pendulum swings, so too does the fateful hand of marketing destiny in the potato-rich expanses of Idaho. We hope our findings will provide both scholars and casual observers with an amusing yet thought-provoking insight into the intricate connections that shape our professional landscapes.

[[INTRDUCTION]]
As the old adage goes, "What do you call a potato that has turned to the dark side? Darth Tater."
In the realm of political science and economics, understanding the connection between political dynamics and labor market outcomes is crucial for discerning the intricate mechanisms at play in shaping regional professional landscapes. In this endeavor, our study delves into the curious relationship between the number of Republican votes for Senators in Idaho and the population of marketing managers in the Gem State.
Here we are, delving into the wonderful world of political inclinations and professional pursuits, much like a curious child on a treasure hunt, only our treasure happens to be data points and correlation coefficients. The whims of political elections may seem distant from the daily hustle of the labor market, but as we shall uncover, they are more entwined than a pair of synchronized swimmers.
Idaho, known for its stunning landscapes and delightful potatoes, presents an intriguing backdrop for our analysis. The state's political landscape, characterized by a strong Republican presence, sets the stage for examining how these political proclivities might influence the composition of its workforce, much like how a gust of wind can sway the branches of a potato-laden tree in a charming Idaho farm.

[[RESULTS]]
The results of our analysis revealed a striking correlation between the number of Republican votes for Senators in Idaho and the population of marketing managers in the state during the period from 2003 to 2020. The correlation coefficient of 0.9703836 indicated a highly positive linear relationship between these two variables. This means that as the number of Republican votes for Senators increased, so did the number of marketing managers in Idaho. It's almost as if one can't talk about Idaho's political landscape without mentioning its marketing fate.
In the immortal words of a true dad, "Why don't skeletons fight each other? They don't have the guts." Just as skeletons may lack the necessary fortitude for fisticuffs, it seems that the number of marketing managers in Idaho lacks the gusto to resist the gravitational pull of Republican votes for Senators.
The r-squared value of 0.9416443 further confirmed the strength of this relationship, indicating that approximately 94.16% of the variation in the number of marketing managers can be explained by the variation in Republican votes for Senators in Idaho. It's a bit like a perfectly executed marketing campaign – almost everything falls into place, and there's very little left to mere chance.
Additionally, the p-value of less than 0.01 provided strong evidence against the null hypothesis of no relationship between these variables. In other words, the probability of observing such a strong correlation by mere chance is less than 1%, which is about as rare as finding a unicorn at a potato farm.
Figure 1 presents a scatterplot illustrating the robust connection between the number of Republican votes for Senators and the population of marketing managers in Idaho. The data points form a near-perfect linear pattern, reminiscent of a perfectly aligned row of potato crops in an Idaho field, yielding a bountiful harvest of statistical significance.
Our findings raise intriguing questions about the interplay of political dynamics and professional pursuits, provoking contemplation as profound as a potato trying to understand the concept of French fries. As we delve deeper into the web of correlations, let us not forget the remarkable impact of political factors on the composition of the labor market, reminding us that even the most unexpected relationships can be uncovered with the right blend of data and analysis.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[CONCLUSION]]

ChatGPT:

[[CONCLUSION]]

In conclusion, our study has elucidated the compelling correlation between Republican votes for Senators in Idaho and the number of marketing managers in the state. It seems that the professional fate of marketing managers in Idaho is intricately intertwined with the political pulse of the state. Just like an Idaho potato, the career trajectory of marketing managers appears to be significantly impacted by the prevailing political climate – a marriage of politics and professional paths as harmonious as a symphony of potato peelers.

Our findings suggest that the number of marketing managers in Idaho mirrors the ebb and flow of Republican support, almost as predictably as a potato rolling down a hill. The robust statistical relationship we uncovered showcases the influential sway of political currents on the composition of the labor market, leaving little doubt that the dynamics of political inclinations can shape the professional landscape in ways as profound as a potato's unyielding determination to become a delicious french fry.

As we wrap up this study, it becomes evident that further research in this area would be as redundant as trying to teach a potato to juggle – unnecessary, and perhaps a little silly. For now, let us marvel at the curious intersection of political choices and professional pursuits in Idaho, like a bemused observer watching a potato try its hand at stand-up comedy. It's a peculiar dance, but one that undoubtedly shapes the very fabric of the Gem State's professional landscape.

In light of our findings, it is safe to say that the curious correlation between Republican votes for Senators in Idaho and the number of marketing managers is indeed a topic as rich and amusing as the soil of an Idaho potato farm, offering both scholars and casual observers a delightful blend of insight and entertainment. May we bid adieu to this study, confident in the knowledge that the connection between political inclinations and professional roles in Idaho has been thoroughly unearthed and thoroughly spud-tacular.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide fictional names of academic journals. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide the name of a funny but plausible sounding research, scientific, or academic journal that would publish a paper entited A Tale of Red States and Marketing Fates: How Republican Votes Relate to the Number of Idaho Marketing Mates. Respond only with the name of a fictional academic journal.

ChatGPT:

The Journal of Political Psychology and Regional Marketing

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide fictional names of nonprofit research organizations and associations. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide the name of a funny but plausible sounding nonprofit, academic, or scientific association or organization that would sponsor research that resulted in a paper entited A Tale of Red States and Marketing Fates: How Republican Votes Relate to the Number of Idaho Marketing Mates. Respond only with the name of a fictional organization.

ChatGPT:

The Consortium for Political and Demographic Analysis

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide potential search keywords separated by commas. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide potential search keywords for a paper titled A Tale of Red States and Marketing Fates: How Republican Votes Relate to the Number of Idaho Marketing Mates with an abstract of In this study, we sought to uncover the mysterious dance between the number of Republican votes for Senators in Idaho and the population of marketing managers in the Gem State. As our research took flight, we delved into the world of data from MIT Election Data and Science Lab, Harvard Dataverse, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics to assess this nagging question. Our findings revealed a correlation coefficient of 0.9703836 and p < 0.01 for the period spanning 2003 to 2020. This robust statistical relationship illuminated the influence of political inclination on the nature of marketing roles in Idaho, shedding light on the perplexing interplay of politics and professional pursuits.
Our analysis unveiled that, much like a well-crafted dad joke, the Republican votes for Senators in Idaho and the number of marketing managers are tightly woven together. It appears that as the political pendulum swings, so too does the fateful hand of marketing destiny in the potato-rich expanses of Idaho. We hope our findings will provide both scholars and casual observers with an amusing yet thought-provoking insight into the intricate connections that shape our professional landscapes.

ChatGPT:

Republican votes, Idaho, marketing managers, correlation, political influence, professional pursuits, politics and marketing, correlation coefficient, Idaho Senator election data, Bureau of Labor Statistics, political pendulum, marketing profession, professional landscapes

*There is a bunch of Python happening behind the scenes to turn this prompt sequence into a PDF.

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Data details

Votes for Republican Senators in Idaho
Detailed data title: Total number of votes cast for Federal Republican Senate candidates in Idaho
Source: MIT Election Data and Science Lab, Harvard Dataverse
See what else correlates with Votes for Republican Senators in Idaho

The number of marketing managers in Idaho
Detailed data title: BLS estimate of marketing managers in Idaho
Source: Bureau of Larbor Statistics
See what else correlates with The number of marketing managers in Idaho

Correlation r = 0.9703836 (Pearson correlation coefficient)
Correlation is a measure of how much the variables move together. If it is 0.99, when one goes up the other goes up. If it is 0.02, the connection is very weak or non-existent. If it is -0.99, then when one goes up the other goes down. If it is 1.00, you probably messed up your correlation function.

r² = 0.9416443 (Coefficient of determination)
This means 94.2% of the change in the one variable (i.e., The number of marketing managers in Idaho) is predictable based on the change in the other (i.e., Votes for Republican Senators in Idaho) over the 6 years from 2003 through 2020.

p < 0.01, which is statistically significant(Null hypothesis significance test)
The p-value is 0.0013.^Show 0.0013027104498363892000000000
The p-value is a measure of how probable it is that we would randomly find a result this extreme.^Note More specifically the p-value is a measure of how probable it is that we would randomly find a result this extreme if we had only tested one pair of variables one time.

But I am a p-villain. I absolutely did not test only one pair of variables one time. I correlated hundreds of millions of pairs of variables. I threw boatloads of data into an industrial-sized blender to find this correlation.

Who is going to stop me? p-value reporting doesn't require me to report how many calculations I had to go through in order to find a low p-value!
On average, you will find a correaltion as strong as 0.97 in 0.13% of random cases. Said differently, if you correlated 768 random variables^Note Which I absolutely did.
with the same 5 degrees of freedom, ^Note Degrees of freedom is a measure of how many free components we are testing. In this case it is 5 because we have two variables measured over a period of 6 years. It's just the number of years minus ( the number of variables minus one ), which in this case simplifies to the number of years minus one.
you would randomly expect to find a correlation as strong as this one.

[ 0.75, 1 ] 95% correlation confidence interval (using the Fisher z-transformation)
^{Read more about the confidence interval} The confidence interval is an estimate the range of the value of the correlation coefficient, using the correlation itself as an input. The values are meant to be the low and high end of the correlation coefficient with 95% confidence.

This one is a bit more complciated than the other calculations, but I include it because many people have been pushing for confidence intervals instead of p-value calculations (for example: NEJM. However, if you are dredging data, you can reliably find yourself in the 5%. That's my goal!

All values for the years included above: ^Note If I were being very sneaky, I could trim years from the beginning or end of the datasets to increase the correlation on some pairs of variables. I don't do that because there are already plenty of correlations in my database without monkeying with the years.

Still, sometimes one of the variables has more years of data available than the other. This page only shows the overlapping years. To see all the years, click on "See what else correlates with..." link above.

	2004	2008	2010	2014	2016	2020
Votes for Republican Senators in Idaho (Total votes)	499796	371744	319953	285596	449017	538446
The number of marketing managers in Idaho (Marketing Managers)	960	720	710	690	860	1050

Why this works

Data dredging: I have 25,153 variables in my database. I compare all these variables against each other to find ones that randomly match up. That's 632,673,409 correlation calculations! This is called “data dredging.” Instead of starting with a hypothesis and testing it, I instead abused the data to see what correlations shake out. It’s a dangerous way to go about analysis, because any sufficiently large dataset will yield strong correlations completely at random.
Lack of causal connection: There is probably^Note Because these pages are automatically generated, it's possible that the two variables you are viewing are in fact causually related. I take steps to prevent the obvious ones from showing on the site (I don't let data about the weather in one city correlate with the weather in a neighboring city, for example), but sometimes they still pop up. If they are related, cool! You found a loophole.
no direct connection between these variables, despite what the AI says above. This is exacerbated by the fact that I used "Years" as the base variable. Lots of things happen in a year that are not related to each other! Most studies would use something like "one person" in stead of "one year" to be the "thing" studied.
Observations not independent: For many variables, sequential years are not independent of each other. If a population of people is continuously doing something every day, there is no reason to think they would suddenly change how they are doing that thing on January 1. A simple^Note Personally I don't find any p-value calculation to be 'simple,' but you know what I mean.
p-value calculation does not take this into account, so mathematically it appears less probable than it really is.
Very low n: There are not many data points included in this analysis. Even if the p-value is high, we should be suspicious of using so few datapoints in a correlation.

Try it yourself

You can calculate the values on this page on your own! Try running the Python code to see the calculation results. ^{Show the steps to do this.} Step 1: Download and install Python on your computer.

Step 2: Open a plaintext editor like Notepad and paste the code below into it.

Step 3: Save the file as "calculate_correlation.py" in a place you will remember, like your desktop. Copy the file location to your clipboard. On Windows, you can right-click the file and click "Properties," and then copy what comes after "Location:" As an example, on my computer the location is "C:\Users\tyler\Desktop"

Step 4: Open a command line window. For example, by pressing start and typing "cmd" and them pressing enter.

Step 5: Install the required modules by typing "pip install numpy", then pressing enter, then typing "pip install scipy", then pressing enter.

Step 6: Navigate to the location where you saved the Python file by using the "cd" command. For example, I would type "cd C:\Users\tyler\Desktop" and push enter.

Step 7: Run the Python script by typing "python calculate_correlation.py"

If you run into any issues, I suggest asking ChatGPT to walk you through installing Python and running the code below on your system. Try this question:

"Walk me through installing Python on my computer to run a script that uses scipy and numpy. Go step-by-step and ask me to confirm before moving on. Start by asking me questions about my operating system so that you know how to proceed. Assume I want the simplest installation with the latest version of Python and that I do not currently have any of the necessary elements installed. Remember to only give me one step per response and confirm I have done it before proceeding."

# These modules make it easier to perform the calculation
import numpy as np
from scipy import stats

# We'll define a function that we can call to return the correlation calculations
def calculate_correlation(array1, array2):

    # Calculate Pearson correlation coefficient and p-value
    correlation, p_value = stats.pearsonr(array1, array2)

    # Calculate R-squared as the square of the correlation coefficient
    r_squared = correlation**2

    return correlation, r_squared, p_value

# These are the arrays for the variables shown on this page, but you can modify them to be any two sets of numbers
array_1 = np.array([499796,371744,319953,285596,449017,538446,])
array_2 = np.array([960,720,710,690,860,1050,])
array_1_name = "Votes for Republican Senators in Idaho"
array_2_name = "The number of marketing managers in Idaho"

# Perform the calculation
print(f"Calculating the correlation between {array_1_name} and {array_2_name}...")
correlation, r_squared, p_value = calculate_correlation(array_1, array_2)

# Print the results
print("Correlation Coefficient:", correlation)
print("R-squared:", r_squared)
print("P-value:", p_value)

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High resolution line chart ^Note The image linked here is a Scalable Vector Graphic (SVG). It is the highest resolution that is possible to achieve. It scales up beyond the size of the observable universe without pixelating. You do not need to email me asking if I have a higher resolution image. I do not. The physical limitations of our universe prevent me from providing you with an image that is any higher resolution than this one.

If you insert it into a PowerPoint presentation (a tool well-known for managing things that are the scale of the universe), you can right-click > "Ungroup" or "Create Shape" and then edit the lines and text directly. You can also change the colors this way.

Alternatively you can use a tool like Inkscape.
High resolution line chart, optimized for mobile
Alternative high resolution line chart
Scatterplot
Portable line chart (png)
Portable line chart (png), optimized for mobile
Line chart for only Votes for Republican Senators in Idaho
Line chart for only The number of marketing managers in Idaho
AI-generated correlation image
The spurious research paper: A Tale of Red States and Marketing Fates: How Republican Votes Relate to the Number of Idaho Marketing Mates

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Correlation ID: 4455 · Black Variable ID: 26230 · Red Variable ID: 7118


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