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AI explanation

^{Show image generation prompt} Model: dalle-3
Prompt: [Whimsical illustration] In a bustling Wisconsin town, a line of voters streams into a charming polling station adorned with patriotic bunting and American flags. The town square bustles with an array of quirky characters, from prominent local figures to quirky animals. Nearby, a towering American flag waves majestically in the wind, framing the entrance to a whimsical firearms manufacturing plant that seems straight out of a storybook. Inside, whimsical workers diligently assemble rifles and handguns in a fantastical factory that hums with increased productivity, mirroring the growth and vibrancy seen in the Senate. The economic boom has sparked a surge in demand for whimsically crafted American-made firearms, with crates of them stacked high and ready for distribution. The scene captures the intersection of Libertarian votes for Senators in Wisconsin and the number of whimsical firearms being manufactured in the US, embodying the spirit of freedom and economic fantasy. The depiction should include only scenes, people, and objects, it should not include text or speech bubbles.

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This image generation prompt was also generated by AI, using the following sequence:

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You select one of a few potential scene descriptors that seems to go along with the variables described. You respond only with the scene descriptions provided and say nothing else.
User prompt: Here are two variables: Libertarian votes for Senators in Wisconsin and Number of firearms manufactured in the US. Given these, which of the following image style descriptions seems most appropriate? Pick the one that seems to be related to one of the variables at hand. Please respond with only one of the following potential descriptions: Whimsical illustration Brutalism Hyper-realistic a funny image you would see on reddit Whimsical illustration
ChatGPT: Whimsical illustration

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You describe simple visual scenes that depict the two variables stated. You combine both variables into one scene.
User prompt: Please describe a visual scene that prominently depicts both Libertarian votes for Senators in Wisconsin and Number of firearms manufactured in the US, in the following situation: The filibuster reform allows for greater productivity in Senate, leading to a boost in the economy. This economic growth incentivizes more people to invest in firearms, driving up the demand for manufactured firearms. After all, nothing says freedom like owning a piece of American-made firepower!. Keep the description simple.
ChatGPT: In a bustling Wisconsin town, a line of voters streams into a polling station to cast their ballots for a Libertarian candidate for Senate. Nearby, a large American flag waves in the wind, framing the entrance to a firearms manufacturing plant. Inside, workers diligently assemble rifles and handguns as the factory hums with increased productivity, mirroring the growth and productivity seen in the Senate. The economic boom has sparked a surge in demand for American-made firearms, with crates of them stacked high and ready for distribution. The scene captures the intersection of Libertarian votes for Senators in Wisconsin and the number of firearms being manufactured in the US, embodying the spirit of freedom and economic prosperity.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You write and improve image generation prompts for DALLE-3. You maintain the same subjects, but enhance the visuals.
User prompt: Please respond with an image generation prompt that would be likely to create an interesting visual using DALLE-3, using the following style: [ Whimsical illustration ] and depicting this scene: In a bustling Wisconsin town, a line of voters streams into a polling station to cast their ballots for a Libertarian candidate for Senate. Nearby, a large American flag waves in the wind, framing the entrance to a firearms manufacturing plant. Inside, workers diligently assemble rifles and handguns as the factory hums with increased productivity, mirroring the growth and productivity seen in the Senate. The economic boom has sparked a surge in demand for American-made firearms, with crates of them stacked high and ready for distribution. The scene captures the intersection of Libertarian votes for Senators in Wisconsin and the number of firearms being manufactured in the US, embodying the spirit of freedom and economic prosperity. Keep the visual depiction simple. Do not include any words or speech bubbles.
ChatGPT: [Whimsical illustration] In a bustling Wisconsin town, a line of voters streams into a charming polling station adorned with patriotic bunting and American flags. The town square bustles with an array of quirky characters, from prominent local figures to quirky animals. Nearby, a towering American flag waves majestically in the wind, framing the entrance to a whimsical firearms manufacturing plant that seems straight out of a storybook. Inside, whimsical workers diligently assemble rifles and handguns in a fantastical factory that hums with increased productivity, mirroring the growth and vibrancy seen in the Senate. The economic boom has sparked a surge in demand for whimsically crafted American-made firearms, with crates of them stacked high and ready for distribution. The scene captures the intersection of Libertarian votes for Senators in Wisconsin and the number of whimsical firearms being manufactured in the US, embodying the spirit of freedom and economic fantasy.

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*Variations in the User Prompts from chart to chart are just the result of random number generation in Python. I wrote a few arrays of various styles and methods to ask questions to change up the results. Every time this site writes an explanation or generates an image, the script picks from each at random.

I sequence the requests into multiple prompts because I find GPT 3.5 to perform much better with short, well-managed contexts. Thus, I track the context directly in Python and only ask ChatGPT targeted questions.

AI academic paper

Lock, Stock, and Ballot: A Rhyming Connection Between Libertarian Votes and Firearms Manufacture in the Badger State The Journal of Political Puns and Policy Parodies Jan 2024 Reminder: This paper is AI-generated. Not real!

Problem variable:	Which variable has a problem? Votes for Libertarian Senators in Wisconsin Number of firearms manufactured in the US Neither / both
Issue:	What is the issue? The data is incorrect The chart isn't displaying properly There is a typo The source link is incorrect A calculation is wrong Something else
Additional details: Optional
Confirm you are a human:

Data details

Why this works

1. Data dredging: I have 25,153 variables in my database. I compare all these variables against each other to find ones that randomly match up. That's 632,673,409 correlation calculations! This is called “data dredging.” Instead of starting with a hypothesis and testing it, I instead abused the data to see what correlations shake out. It’s a dangerous way to go about analysis, because any sufficiently large dataset will yield strong correlations completely at random.
2. Lack of causal connection: There is probably^Note Because these pages are automatically generated, it's possible that the two variables you are viewing are in fact causually related. I take steps to prevent the obvious ones from showing on the site (I don't let data about the weather in one city correlate with the weather in a neighboring city, for example), but sometimes they still pop up. If they are related, cool! You found a loophole.
   no direct connection between these variables, despite what the AI says above. This is exacerbated by the fact that I used "Years" as the base variable. Lots of things happen in a year that are not related to each other! Most studies would use something like "one person" in stead of "one year" to be the "thing" studied.
3. Observations not independent: For many variables, sequential years are not independent of each other. If a population of people is continuously doing something every day, there is no reason to think they would suddenly change how they are doing that thing on January 1. A simple^Note Personally I don't find any p-value calculation to be 'simple,' but you know what I mean.
   p-value calculation does not take this into account, so mathematically it appears less probable than it really is.
4. Very low n: There are not many data points included in this analysis. Even if the p-value is high, we should be suspicious of using so few datapoints in a correlation.

Try it yourself

# These modules make it easier to perform the calculation
import numpy as np
from scipy import stats

# We'll define a function that we can call to return the correlation calculations
def calculate_correlation(array1, array2):

    # Calculate Pearson correlation coefficient and p-value
    correlation, p_value = stats.pearsonr(array1, array2)

    # Calculate R-squared as the square of the correlation coefficient
    r_squared = correlation**2

    return correlation, r_squared, p_value

# These are the arrays for the variables shown on this page, but you can modify them to be any two sets of numbers
array_1 = np.array([0.372568,0.986122,0.31752,0.840445,0.283652,2.06818,2.96842,])
array_2 = np.array([4175840,5173220,3713590,3793540,3099020,8578610,11497400,])
array_1_name = "Votes for Libertarian Senators in Wisconsin"
array_2_name = "Number of firearms manufactured in the US"

# Perform the calculation
print(f"Calculating the correlation between {array_1_name} and {array_2_name}...")
correlation, r_squared, p_value = calculate_correlation(array_1, array_2)

# Print the results
print("Correlation Coefficient:", correlation)
print("R-squared:", r_squared)
print("P-value:", p_value)

Reuseable content

• High resolution line chart ^Note The image linked here is a Scalable Vector Graphic (SVG). It is the highest resolution that is possible to achieve. It scales up beyond the size of the observable universe without pixelating. You do not need to email me asking if I have a higher resolution image. I do not. The physical limitations of our universe prevent me from providing you with an image that is any higher resolution than this one.
  
  If you insert it into a PowerPoint presentation (a tool well-known for managing things that are the scale of the universe), you can right-click > "Ungroup" or "Create Shape" and then edit the lines and text directly. You can also change the colors this way.
  
  Alternatively you can use a tool like Inkscape.
  
• High resolution line chart, optimized for mobile
• Alternative high resolution line chart
• Scatterplot
• Portable line chart (png)
• Portable line chart (png), optimized for mobile
• Line chart for only Votes for Libertarian Senators in Wisconsin
• Line chart for only Number of firearms manufactured in the US
• AI-generated correlation image
• The spurious research paper: Lock, Stock, and Ballot: A Rhyming Connection Between Libertarian Votes and Firearms Manufacture in the Badger State