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Spurious correlation #4,347 · View random

A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is Votes for the Libertarian Presidential candidate in Alaska and the second variable is Kerosene used in Canada.  The chart goes from 1980 to 2020, and the two variables track closely in value over that time. Small Image
Download png
, svg

AI explanation

As the passion for libertarianism waned in the land of the midnight sun, so too did the fervor for fiery kerosene lamps in the great white north. It seems the connection between individual freedom and illuminating fuel was not as lit as previously thought!

Model: dalle-3
Prompt: Visual prompt: In a serene Alaskan setting, a cluster of paper ballots for the Libertarian Presidential candidate is strewn across the snow-covered ground. Nearby, a warm glow emits from a fading kerosene lamp inside a cozy Canadian cabin. The dwindling flame reflects the declining fervor for libertarianism and traditional lighting methods in the tranquil, snowy wilderness. The depiction should include only scenes, people, and objects, it should not include text or speech bubbles.
This image generation prompt was also generated by AI, using the following sequence:

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You select one of a few potential scene descriptors that seems to go along with the variables described. You respond only with the scene descriptions provided and say nothing else.
User prompt: Here are two variables: Votes for the Libertarian Presidential candidate in Alaska and Kerosene used in Canada. Given these, which of the following image style descriptions seems most appropriate? Pick the one that seems to be related to one of the variables at hand. Please respond with only one of the following potential descriptions: High-tech A TIME magazine cover image Parallax art Cubism Sci-fi fantacy
ChatGPT: A TIME magazine cover image

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You describe simple visual scenes that depict the two variables stated. You combine both variables into one scene.
User prompt: Please describe a visual scene that prominently depicts both Votes for the Libertarian Presidential candidate in Alaska and Kerosene used in Canada, in the following situation: As the passion for libertarianism waned in the land of the midnight sun, so too did the fervor for fiery kerosene lamps in the great white north. It seems the connection between individual freedom and illuminating fuel was not as lit as previously thought!. Keep the description simple.
ChatGPT: In a quiet Alaskan town, a few scattered paper ballots for the Libertarian Presidential candidate lay deserted on the snowy ground. Nearby, a pale glow emanates from a dwindling kerosene lamp in a cozy Canadian cabin, its light flickering in the quiet wilderness. The fading flames reflect the waning fervor for both libertarianism and the use of kerosene for illumination in the vast snowy landscape.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You write and improve image generation prompts for DALLE-3. You maintain the same subjects, but enhance the visuals.
User prompt: Please respond with an image generation prompt that would be likely to create an interesting visual using DALLE-3, using the following style: [ A TIME magazine cover image ] and depicting this scene: In a quiet Alaskan town, a few scattered paper ballots for the Libertarian Presidential candidate lay deserted on the snowy ground. Nearby, a pale glow emanates from a dwindling kerosene lamp in a cozy Canadian cabin, its light flickering in the quiet wilderness. The fading flames reflect the waning fervor for both libertarianism and the use of kerosene for illumination in the vast snowy landscape. Keep the visual depiction simple. Do not include any words or speech bubbles.
ChatGPT: Visual prompt: In a serene Alaskan setting, a cluster of paper ballots for the Libertarian Presidential candidate is strewn across the snow-covered ground. Nearby, a warm glow emits from a fading kerosene lamp inside a cozy Canadian cabin. The dwindling flame reflects the declining fervor for libertarianism and traditional lighting methods in the tranquil, snowy wilderness.

*Variations in the User Prompts from chart to chart are just the result of random number generation in Python. I wrote a few arrays of various styles and methods to ask questions to change up the results. Every time this site writes an explanation or generates an image, the script picks from each at random.

I sequence the requests into multiple prompts because I find GPT 3.5 to perform much better with short, well-managed contexts. Thus, I track the context directly in Python and only ask ChatGPT targeted questions.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106 (fine-tuned)
System prompt: You provide humorous responses in the form of plausible sounding explanations for correlations. You assume the correlation is causative for the purpose of the explanation even if it is ridiculous. You do not chat with the user, you only reply with the causal connection explanation and nothing else.
User prompt: Please make up a funny explanation for how a decrease in Votes for the Libertarian Presidential candidate in Alaska caused Kerosene used in Canada to decrease. Make it feel plausible.

AI academic paper

(Because p < 0.01)
Kerosene Consumption in Canada and Libertarian Votes in Alaska: A Correlative Conundrum

The Journal of Quirky Quantitative Analysis

Jan 2024

Reminder: This paper is AI-generated. Not real!
Quick note: This sequence is long and repetitive. That's how the prompt engineering works for this one. I manage the output in Python to format it into this PDF.




Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a researcher writing an academic paper.You write titles and abstracts of goofy academic research papers.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, and add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please draft the title and abstract of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Votes for the Libertarian Presidential candidate in Alaska and Kerosene used in Canada. Make lots of jokes, goofy observations, and puns.

Make the title an alliteration.

Your research team used data from MIT Election Data and Science Lab, Harvard Dataverse and Energy Information Administration to assess this nagging question. You found a correlation coefficient of 0.8868006 and p < 0.01 for 1980 to 2020.

Please respond in this format (replace "Lorem ipsum dolor sit" with your title and abstract)

[[TITLE]]
Lorem ipsum dolor sit

[[ABSTRACT]]
Lorem ipsum dolor sit



ChatGPT:
[[TITLE]]
Kerosene Consumption in Canada and Libertarian Votes in Alaska: A Correlative Conundrum

[[ABSTRACT]]
This paper investigates the peculiar and previously unexplored relationship between kerosene consumption in Canada and votes for the Libertarian presidential candidate in Alaska. Tackling two seemingly unrelated topics, we delved into the intersecting realms of energy economics and political preferences with a touch of quirky curiosity. Leveraging data from the MIT Election Data and Science Lab, Harvard Dataverse, and the Energy Information Administration, our research unearthed a surprisingly robust correlation coefficient of 0.8868006 and a p-value of less than 0.01 for the years spanning from 1980 to 2020. As we navigate through the numerical labyrinth, we hope to shed light on this bizarre juxtaposition and perhaps even ignite a few sparks of humor among our esteemed colleagues. So grab your kerosene lamps and laissez-faire attitudes as we embark on this whimsical journey of statistical discovery!


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a researcher writing an academic paper.You draft the introduction section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the introduction section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Votes for the Libertarian Presidential candidate in Alaska and Kerosene used in Canada. Make lots of jokes, goofy observations, and puns.

Here is the title and abstract of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
Kerosene Consumption in Canada and Libertarian Votes in Alaska: A Correlative Conundrum

[[ABSTRACT]]
This paper investigates the peculiar and previously unexplored relationship between kerosene consumption in Canada and votes for the Libertarian presidential candidate in Alaska. Tackling two seemingly unrelated topics, we delved into the intersecting realms of energy economics and political preferences with a touch of quirky curiosity. Leveraging data from the MIT Election Data and Science Lab, Harvard Dataverse, and the Energy Information Administration, our research unearthed a surprisingly robust correlation coefficient of 0.8868006 and a p-value of less than 0.01 for the years spanning from 1980 to 2020. As we navigate through the numerical labyrinth, we hope to shed light on this bizarre juxtaposition and perhaps even ignite a few sparks of humor among our esteemed colleagues. So grab your kerosene lamps and laissez-faire attitudes as we embark on this whimsical journey of statistical discovery!

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[INTRODUCTION]]



ChatGPT:
[[INTRODUCTION]]

Picture this: a cozy cabin in the wilds of Alaska, adorned with kerosene lamps flickering amidst the wilderness, and a lone resident passionately casting a vote for the libertarian candidate in the presidential election. Meanwhile, over the border in Canada, countless gallons of kerosene are being consumed for various purposes, from lighting and heating to fueling the imagination of quirky researchers.

In this illuminating study, we embark on a quest to unravel the enigmatic connection between the consumption of kerosene in the Great White North and the political preferences of our libertarian-leaning neighbors to the north. At first glance, one might think these two subjects have as much in common as a moose and a maple leaf, but fear not, for we are here to shed light on these curiously correlated facets of North American life.

As we delve into the statistical labyrinth, we hope to bring a sense of levity to what may seem like an odd pairing. After all, who wouldn't want to uncover the illuminating mystery of kerosene usage and libertarian voting patterns, all while fueling our paper with puns as bright as the fire in an Alaskan log cabin?

So, grab your favorite ballot and a jug of kerosene, or perhaps just a sense of humor, as we embark on this quirky academic odyssey of statistical analysis and witticisms!


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a researcher writing an academic paper.You draft a literature review section of an academic research paper, that starts out dry for the first few sentences but then becomes hilarious and goofy.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up a literature review section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Votes for the Libertarian Presidential candidate in Alaska and Kerosene used in Canada. Make lots of jokes, goofy observations, and puns.

Speak in the present tense for this section (the authors find...), as is common in academic research paper literature reviews. Name the sources in a format similar to this: In "Book," the authors find lorem and ipsum.

Make up the lorem and ipsum part, but make it sound related to the topic at hand.

Start by naming serious-sounding studies by authors like Smith, Doe, and Jones - but then quickly devolve. Name some real non-fiction books that would be related to the topic. Then name some real fiction books that sound like they could be related. Then name a couple popular internet memes that are related to one of the topics.

Here is the title and abstract of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
Kerosene Consumption in Canada and Libertarian Votes in Alaska: A Correlative Conundrum

[[ABSTRACT]]
This paper investigates the peculiar and previously unexplored relationship between kerosene consumption in Canada and votes for the Libertarian presidential candidate in Alaska. Tackling two seemingly unrelated topics, we delved into the intersecting realms of energy economics and political preferences with a touch of quirky curiosity. Leveraging data from the MIT Election Data and Science Lab, Harvard Dataverse, and the Energy Information Administration, our research unearthed a surprisingly robust correlation coefficient of 0.8868006 and a p-value of less than 0.01 for the years spanning from 1980 to 2020. As we navigate through the numerical labyrinth, we hope to shed light on this bizarre juxtaposition and perhaps even ignite a few sparks of humor among our esteemed colleagues. So grab your kerosene lamps and laissez-faire attitudes as we embark on this whimsical journey of statistical discovery!

-------

And here is the introduction section that led to this literature review:
[[INTRODUCTION]]
Picture this: a cozy cabin in the wilds of Alaska, adorned with kerosene lamps flickering amidst the wilderness, and a lone resident passionately casting a vote for the libertarian candidate in the presidential election. Meanwhile, over the border in Canada, countless gallons of kerosene are being consumed for various purposes, from lighting and heating to fueling the imagination of quirky researchers.
In this illuminating study, we embark on a quest to unravel the enigmatic connection between the consumption of kerosene in the Great White North and the political preferences of our libertarian-leaning neighbors to the north. At first glance, one might think these two subjects have as much in common as a moose and a maple leaf, but fear not, for we are here to shed light on these curiously correlated facets of North American life.
As we delve into the statistical labyrinth, we hope to bring a sense of levity to what may seem like an odd pairing. After all, who wouldn't want to uncover the illuminating mystery of kerosene usage and libertarian voting patterns, all while fueling our paper with puns as bright as the fire in an Alaskan log cabin?
So, grab your favorite ballot and a jug of kerosene, or perhaps just a sense of humor, as we embark on this quirky academic odyssey of statistical analysis and witticisms!

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]



ChatGPT:
[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]

In "Kerosene Consumption Patterns in Northern Hemispheric Territories," Smith et al. present a comprehensive analysis of the various factors contributing to kerosene usage in Canada. The authors find that while traditional uses such as lighting and heating account for a significant portion of kerosene consumption, there is a curious uptick in kerosene sales during winter months, coinciding with increased indoor activities and, presumably, higher consumption of poutine. However, what truly ignites the reader's interest is the unexpected correlation the authors stumble upon between kerosene usage and the likelihood of purchasing plaid shirts—the true hallmark of a Canadian identity.

Doe and Jones, in their seminal work "The Political Landscape of the Last Frontier," navigate the intricate terrain of voting patterns in Alaska. Their study delves into the historical, socioeconomic, and cultural influences on political preferences, culminating in a riveting exploration of the ideologies that sway Alaskan voters. Amidst the serious analysis, the authors uncover an intriguing trend—individuals with a penchant for sled dog racing show a heightened affinity for libertarianism. This discovery shines a quirky spotlight on the unique demographics that shape the Alaskan political landscape.

Turning the page to more unconventional sources, "Kerosene and Libertarians: A Love Story" by A. M. Reader provides a fictional yet oddly captivating account of a libertarian leader's quest to promote kerosene as the quintessential fuel of individual freedom. Told against the backdrop of a dystopian future where government regulations on combustible materials have run rampant, this novel offers a satirical take on the libertarian subculture's affinity for rugged self-reliance and, apparently, kerosene-fueled adventures.

Adding to the eclectic mix, "A Tale of Two Kerosenes" by Charles Dumas presents a whimsical narrative of two star-crossed kerosene enthusiasts whose love transcends geopolitical boundaries. Against all odds, their affectionate journey unfolds against a backdrop of statistical anomalies and trivia concerning obscure presidential election statistics, making for a delightfully peculiar read.

And who could forget the online phenomenon that is the "Kerosene Cat" meme? This internet gem humorously captures the perplexing expression of a feline encountering a particularly enigmatic kerosene lamp. While the meme's relevance to our research may be dubious at best, we cannot discount the potential psychological impact of kerosene on our furry companions, or indeed, the influence of political ideologies on the feline psyche.

As we embark on this scholarly voyage, we invite our esteemed colleagues to join us in unraveling this quirky tapestry of kerosene consumption and libertarian voting predilections. With a dash of humor and a sprinkling of oddities, we seek to shed light on this unlikely correlation and perhaps even ignite a few sparks of mirth along the way. As the saying goes, from the glow of a kerosene lamp to the glow of an election booth, it takes all kinds to illuminate the world.

So, dear readers, buckle up for a light-hearted expedition through the statistical maze and prepare to be delighted, bemused, and possibly even enlightened by the whimsical dance of kerosene and libertarian inclinations.



Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a researcher writing an academic paper.You draft the methodology section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the methodology section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Votes for the Libertarian Presidential candidate in Alaska and Kerosene used in Canada. Make lots of jokes, goofy observations, and puns.

Your research team collected data from all across the internet, but mostly just used information from MIT Election Data and Science Lab, Harvard Dataverse and Energy Information Administration . You used data from 1980 to 2020

Make up the research methods you don't know. Make them a bit goofy and convoluted.

Here is the title, abstract, and introduction of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
Kerosene Consumption in Canada and Libertarian Votes in Alaska: A Correlative Conundrum

[[ABSTRACT]]
This paper investigates the peculiar and previously unexplored relationship between kerosene consumption in Canada and votes for the Libertarian presidential candidate in Alaska. Tackling two seemingly unrelated topics, we delved into the intersecting realms of energy economics and political preferences with a touch of quirky curiosity. Leveraging data from the MIT Election Data and Science Lab, Harvard Dataverse, and the Energy Information Administration, our research unearthed a surprisingly robust correlation coefficient of 0.8868006 and a p-value of less than 0.01 for the years spanning from 1980 to 2020. As we navigate through the numerical labyrinth, we hope to shed light on this bizarre juxtaposition and perhaps even ignite a few sparks of humor among our esteemed colleagues. So grab your kerosene lamps and laissez-faire attitudes as we embark on this whimsical journey of statistical discovery!

[[INTRODUCTION]]
Picture this: a cozy cabin in the wilds of Alaska, adorned with kerosene lamps flickering amidst the wilderness, and a lone resident passionately casting a vote for the libertarian candidate in the presidential election. Meanwhile, over the border in Canada, countless gallons of kerosene are being consumed for various purposes, from lighting and heating to fueling the imagination of quirky researchers.
In this illuminating study, we embark on a quest to unravel the enigmatic connection between the consumption of kerosene in the Great White North and the political preferences of our libertarian-leaning neighbors to the north. At first glance, one might think these two subjects have as much in common as a moose and a maple leaf, but fear not, for we are here to shed light on these curiously correlated facets of North American life.
As we delve into the statistical labyrinth, we hope to bring a sense of levity to what may seem like an odd pairing. After all, who wouldn't want to uncover the illuminating mystery of kerosene usage and libertarian voting patterns, all while fueling our paper with puns as bright as the fire in an Alaskan log cabin?
So, grab your favorite ballot and a jug of kerosene, or perhaps just a sense of humor, as we embark on this quirky academic odyssey of statistical analysis and witticisms!

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[METHODOLOGY]]



ChatGPT:

[[METHODOLOGY]]

To untangle the web of correlation between kerosene consumption in Canada and votes for the Libertarian presidential candidate in Alaska, our research team devised a methodology that was as eccentric as the relationship itself. We approached the data with a sense of wonder, a dash of humor, and a heaping helping of statistical rigor.

First and foremost, we scoured the depths of the internet like intrepid explorers on a quest for hidden treasure. Armed with coffee (and perhaps a few groan-inducing puns), we delved into the MIT Election Data and Science Lab, swam through the Harvard Dataverse, and traversed the digital wilderness of the Energy Information Administration. Our data collection process was as adventurous as scaling the Alaskan peaks or canoeing through the Canadian lakes.

With data in hand, we donned our metaphorical lab coats and embarked on the analytical phase of our research. To establish the relationship between kerosene consumption in Canada and Libertarian votes in Alaska, we employed a series of statistical analyses that would challenge even the most seasoned data wranglers.

Using a combination of regression models, time series analyses, and a touch of magic (wink, wink), we aimed to uncover any underlying patterns or peculiarities in the data. Our goal was not only to calculate correlation coefficients and p-values but also to ignite the imagination and spark laughter in even the most stoic of academics.

Despite the whimsical nature of our research, we held ourselves to the highest standards of scientific inquiry. Our methodology was as robust as a bear in the Canadian wilderness, as precise as an Alaskan musher navigating a sled dog team, and as thorough as... well, a group of overly-caffeinated researchers on a mission to unravel a statistical conundrum.

In the end, our journey through the methodology was an odyssey of data, humor, and unexpected discoveries—an adventure that we hope will leave our fellow researchers both enlightened and entertained. And perhaps, just perhaps, it will kindle a newfound affection for correlations as quirky as a moose wearing a top hat.


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a researcher writing an academic paper.You draft the results section of an academic research paper. You speak in the past tense (you found...).
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the results section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Votes for the Libertarian Presidential candidate in Alaska and Kerosene used in Canada. Make lots of jokes, goofy observations, and puns.

Your research team collected data from all across the internet, but mostly just used information from MIT Election Data and Science Lab, Harvard Dataverse and Energy Information Administration .

For the time period 1980 to 2020, you found a correlation 0.8868006, r-squared of 0.7864153, and p < 0.01.

One figure will be included. The figure (Fig. 1) is a scatterplot showing the strong correlation between the two variables. You don't need to specify where; I will add the figure.

Here is the title and abstract of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
Kerosene Consumption in Canada and Libertarian Votes in Alaska: A Correlative Conundrum

[[ABSTRACT]]
This paper investigates the peculiar and previously unexplored relationship between kerosene consumption in Canada and votes for the Libertarian presidential candidate in Alaska. Tackling two seemingly unrelated topics, we delved into the intersecting realms of energy economics and political preferences with a touch of quirky curiosity. Leveraging data from the MIT Election Data and Science Lab, Harvard Dataverse, and the Energy Information Administration, our research unearthed a surprisingly robust correlation coefficient of 0.8868006 and a p-value of less than 0.01 for the years spanning from 1980 to 2020. As we navigate through the numerical labyrinth, we hope to shed light on this bizarre juxtaposition and perhaps even ignite a few sparks of humor among our esteemed colleagues. So grab your kerosene lamps and laissez-faire attitudes as we embark on this whimsical journey of statistical discovery!

-------

And here is the methodology section that led to this result:
[[METHODOLOGY]]
Picture this: a cozy cabin in the wilds of Alaska, adorned with kerosene lamps flickering amidst the wilderness, and a lone resident passionately casting a vote for the libertarian candidate in the presidential election. Meanwhile, over the border in Canada, countless gallons of kerosene are being consumed for various purposes, from lighting and heating to fueling the imagination of quirky researchers.
In this illuminating study, we embark on a quest to unravel the enigmatic connection between the consumption of kerosene in the Great White North and the political preferences of our libertarian-leaning neighbors to the north. At first glance, one might think these two subjects have as much in common as a moose and a maple leaf, but fear not, for we are here to shed light on these curiously correlated facets of North American life.
As we delve into the statistical labyrinth, we hope to bring a sense of levity to what may seem like an odd pairing. After all, who wouldn't want to uncover the illuminating mystery of kerosene usage and libertarian voting patterns, all while fueling our paper with puns as bright as the fire in an Alaskan log cabin?
So, grab your favorite ballot and a jug of kerosene, or perhaps just a sense of humor, as we embark on this quirky academic odyssey of statistical analysis and witticisms!

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[RESULTS]]



ChatGPT:

[[RESULTS]]

The findings of our statistical analysis revealed a remarkably strong correlation (r = 0.8868006) between kerosene consumption in Canada and votes for the Libertarian presidential candidate in Alaska from 1980 to 2020. This eyebrow-raising correlation surpassed our initial expectations and left us scratching our heads in bewildered amusement. The r-squared value of 0.7864153 further corroborated the robustness of this unexpected relationship, confirming that this isn't just a mere fluke in the data but a bonafide head-scratcher.

In Fig. 1, our scatterplot graphically encapsulates this tangled web of statistical intrigue, showcasing the unmistakable pattern of kerosene consumption and Libertarian votes dancing in peculiar unison. As the data points form a compelling line of best fit, one can't help but imagine a chorus of kerosene lamps flickering in rhythmic harmony with ballots being cast in the Last Frontier. It's almost as if the northern lights of Alaska themselves have taken a liking to the libertarian spirit and decided to mirror their fervor in the consumption of kerosene up north.

With a p-value of less than 0.01, there's an incredibly strong indication that this correlation isn't purely coincidental. You might say it's as significant as finding a polar bear wearing a "Vote Libertarian" sash while roasting marshmallows over a kerosene-fueled bonfire in the Yukon.

The remarkable strength of this correlation beckons us to ponder the deeper meaning behind the kerosene libertarian connection. Perhaps the gentle glow of kerosene lamps has a hypnotic influence on the political inclinations of our northern neighbors, or maybe it's the scent of libertarian ideals in the Alaskan air that kindles a greater thirst for kerosene in the Great White North. In any case, this correlation isn't just statistically significant; it's wildly entertaining and leaves us yearning for more quirky conundrums to untangle.


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a researcher writing an academic paper.You draft the discussion section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the discussion section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Votes for the Libertarian Presidential candidate in Alaska and Kerosene used in Canada. Make lots of jokes, goofy observations, and puns.

Limit your response to 500 tokens.

Here are the title, abstract, literature review, and results sections. Please harken back to 1-2 of the goofy items in the literature review, but pretend to take them completely seriously. Discuss how your results supported the prior research.

Do not write a conclusion. I will add a conclusion after this.

[[TITLE]]
Kerosene Consumption in Canada and Libertarian Votes in Alaska: A Correlative Conundrum

[[ABSTRACT]]
This paper investigates the peculiar and previously unexplored relationship between kerosene consumption in Canada and votes for the Libertarian presidential candidate in Alaska. Tackling two seemingly unrelated topics, we delved into the intersecting realms of energy economics and political preferences with a touch of quirky curiosity. Leveraging data from the MIT Election Data and Science Lab, Harvard Dataverse, and the Energy Information Administration, our research unearthed a surprisingly robust correlation coefficient of 0.8868006 and a p-value of less than 0.01 for the years spanning from 1980 to 2020. As we navigate through the numerical labyrinth, we hope to shed light on this bizarre juxtaposition and perhaps even ignite a few sparks of humor among our esteemed colleagues. So grab your kerosene lamps and laissez-faire attitudes as we embark on this whimsical journey of statistical discovery!

[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]
In "Kerosene Consumption Patterns in Northern Hemispheric Territories," Smith et al. present a comprehensive analysis of the various factors contributing to kerosene usage in Canada. The authors find that while traditional uses such as lighting and heating account for a significant portion of kerosene consumption, there is a curious uptick in kerosene sales during winter months, coinciding with increased indoor activities and, presumably, higher consumption of poutine. However, what truly ignites the reader's interest is the unexpected correlation the authors stumble upon between kerosene usage and the likelihood of purchasing plaid shirts—the true hallmark of a Canadian identity.
Doe and Jones, in their seminal work "The Political Landscape of the Last Frontier," navigate the intricate terrain of voting patterns in Alaska. Their study delves into the historical, socioeconomic, and cultural influences on political preferences, culminating in a riveting exploration of the ideologies that sway Alaskan voters. Amidst the serious analysis, the authors uncover an intriguing trend—individuals with a penchant for sled dog racing show a heightened affinity for libertarianism. This discovery shines a quirky spotlight on the unique demographics that shape the Alaskan political landscape.
Turning the page to more unconventional sources, "Kerosene and Libertarians: A Love Story" by A. M. Reader provides a fictional yet oddly captivating account of a libertarian leader's quest to promote kerosene as the quintessential fuel of individual freedom. Told against the backdrop of a dystopian future where government regulations on combustible materials have run rampant, this novel offers a satirical take on the libertarian subculture's affinity for rugged self-reliance and, apparently, kerosene-fueled adventures.
Adding to the eclectic mix, "A Tale of Two Kerosenes" by Charles Dumas presents a whimsical narrative of two star-crossed kerosene enthusiasts whose love transcends geopolitical boundaries. Against all odds, their affectionate journey unfolds against a backdrop of statistical anomalies and trivia concerning obscure presidential election statistics, making for a delightfully peculiar read.
And who could forget the online phenomenon that is the "Kerosene Cat" meme? This internet gem humorously captures the perplexing expression of a feline encountering a particularly enigmatic kerosene lamp. While the meme's relevance to our research may be dubious at best, we cannot discount the potential psychological impact of kerosene on our furry companions, or indeed, the influence of political ideologies on the feline psyche.
As we embark on this scholarly voyage, we invite our esteemed colleagues to join us in unraveling this quirky tapestry of kerosene consumption and libertarian voting predilections. With a dash of humor and a sprinkling of oddities, we seek to shed light on this unlikely correlation and perhaps even ignite a few sparks of mirth along the way. As the saying goes, from the glow of a kerosene lamp to the glow of an election booth, it takes all kinds to illuminate the world.
So, dear readers, buckle up for a light-hearted expedition through the statistical maze and prepare to be delighted, bemused, and possibly even enlightened by the whimsical dance of kerosene and libertarian inclinations.


[[RESULTS]]
The findings of our statistical analysis revealed a remarkably strong correlation (r = 0.8868006) between kerosene consumption in Canada and votes for the Libertarian presidential candidate in Alaska from 1980 to 2020. This eyebrow-raising correlation surpassed our initial expectations and left us scratching our heads in bewildered amusement. The r-squared value of 0.7864153 further corroborated the robustness of this unexpected relationship, confirming that this isn't just a mere fluke in the data but a bonafide head-scratcher.
In Fig. 1, our scatterplot graphically encapsulates this tangled web of statistical intrigue, showcasing the unmistakable pattern of kerosene consumption and Libertarian votes dancing in peculiar unison. As the data points form a compelling line of best fit, one can't help but imagine a chorus of kerosene lamps flickering in rhythmic harmony with ballots being cast in the Last Frontier. It's almost as if the northern lights of Alaska themselves have taken a liking to the libertarian spirit and decided to mirror their fervor in the consumption of kerosene up north.
With a p-value of less than 0.01, there's an incredibly strong indication that this correlation isn't purely coincidental. You might say it's as significant as finding a polar bear wearing a "Vote Libertarian" sash while roasting marshmallows over a kerosene-fueled bonfire in the Yukon.
The remarkable strength of this correlation beckons us to ponder the deeper meaning behind the kerosene libertarian connection. Perhaps the gentle glow of kerosene lamps has a hypnotic influence on the political inclinations of our northern neighbors, or maybe it's the scent of libertarian ideals in the Alaskan air that kindles a greater thirst for kerosene in the Great White North. In any case, this correlation isn't just statistically significant; it's wildly entertaining and leaves us yearning for more quirky conundrums to untangle.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[DISCUSSION]]



ChatGPT:

[[DISCUSSION]]

As we dust off our baffled expressions and attempt to wrap our heads around the confounding correlation we've unearthed, it's clear that our findings align with the quirks and oddities we stumbled upon in our lighthearted literature review. The unexpected linkage between kerosene consumption in Canada and libertarian votes in Alaska sends our imaginations soaring to zany heights.

From the peculiar uptick in kerosene sales during Canadian winter months, possibly fueled by a surge in poutine consumption and plaid shirt purchases as demonstrated by Smith et al., to the wacky trend of Alaskan sled dog racing enthusiasts' affinity for libertarianism identified by Doe and Jones, our results seem to amplify the whimsy and enigmatic conundrums we encountered in the literature. The captivating tales of kerosene enthusiasts from Charles Dumas and the satirical musings of A. M. Reader on libertarian adventures with kerosene now seem like prophets of our statistically robust findings.

It's as if the statistical stars have aligned to produce a correlation so surreal and unexpected that it feels like stumbling upon a polar bear donning political regalia while indulging in kerosene-fueled shenanigans in the frigid expanse of the Yukon. But as we shake our heads in disbelief, we also can't help but revel in the delightfully perplexing nature of this correlation.

While our study is not without its humorous overtones, the robustness of the statistical relationship cannot be ignored. The strong correlation coefficient and p-value under 0.01 act as a firm, albeit bewildering, testament to the intriguing dance of kerosene consumption and libertarian voting patterns. Yet, amidst the statistical marvel, we are left with more questions than answers. Does the gentle glow of kerosene lamps hold a subliminal sway over political choices? Or is there an ethereal connection between libertarian ideals and the scent of kerosene in the Alaskan air?

Whatever the explanation, our endeavor into this charmingly perplexing arena has surely left us with a yearning for more enigmatic correlations and whimsical mysteries to untangle. And as we bid adieu to this discussion, we can't help but smile at the thought of an Alaskan moose casting an enlightened vote while basking in the warm glow of a kerosene fire. After all, the statistics may bewilder us, but the humor of it all brightens our scholarly journey.


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a researcher writing an academic paper.You draft the discussion section of goofy academic research papers that sounds like it belongs based on the title and abstract provided.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up a short conclusion of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Votes for the Libertarian Presidential candidate in Alaska and Kerosene used in Canada. Make lots of jokes, goofy observations, and puns.

Limit your response to 300 tokens. At the very end, assert that no more research is needed in this area.

Here are the title, abstract, introduction, and results sections.
[[TITLE]]
Kerosene Consumption in Canada and Libertarian Votes in Alaska: A Correlative Conundrum

[[ABSTRACT]]
This paper investigates the peculiar and previously unexplored relationship between kerosene consumption in Canada and votes for the Libertarian presidential candidate in Alaska. Tackling two seemingly unrelated topics, we delved into the intersecting realms of energy economics and political preferences with a touch of quirky curiosity. Leveraging data from the MIT Election Data and Science Lab, Harvard Dataverse, and the Energy Information Administration, our research unearthed a surprisingly robust correlation coefficient of 0.8868006 and a p-value of less than 0.01 for the years spanning from 1980 to 2020. As we navigate through the numerical labyrinth, we hope to shed light on this bizarre juxtaposition and perhaps even ignite a few sparks of humor among our esteemed colleagues. So grab your kerosene lamps and laissez-faire attitudes as we embark on this whimsical journey of statistical discovery!

[[INTRDUCTION]]
Picture this: a cozy cabin in the wilds of Alaska, adorned with kerosene lamps flickering amidst the wilderness, and a lone resident passionately casting a vote for the libertarian candidate in the presidential election. Meanwhile, over the border in Canada, countless gallons of kerosene are being consumed for various purposes, from lighting and heating to fueling the imagination of quirky researchers.
In this illuminating study, we embark on a quest to unravel the enigmatic connection between the consumption of kerosene in the Great White North and the political preferences of our libertarian-leaning neighbors to the north. At first glance, one might think these two subjects have as much in common as a moose and a maple leaf, but fear not, for we are here to shed light on these curiously correlated facets of North American life.
As we delve into the statistical labyrinth, we hope to bring a sense of levity to what may seem like an odd pairing. After all, who wouldn't want to uncover the illuminating mystery of kerosene usage and libertarian voting patterns, all while fueling our paper with puns as bright as the fire in an Alaskan log cabin?
So, grab your favorite ballot and a jug of kerosene, or perhaps just a sense of humor, as we embark on this quirky academic odyssey of statistical analysis and witticisms!

[[RESULTS]]
The findings of our statistical analysis revealed a remarkably strong correlation (r = 0.8868006) between kerosene consumption in Canada and votes for the Libertarian presidential candidate in Alaska from 1980 to 2020. This eyebrow-raising correlation surpassed our initial expectations and left us scratching our heads in bewildered amusement. The r-squared value of 0.7864153 further corroborated the robustness of this unexpected relationship, confirming that this isn't just a mere fluke in the data but a bonafide head-scratcher.
In Fig. 1, our scatterplot graphically encapsulates this tangled web of statistical intrigue, showcasing the unmistakable pattern of kerosene consumption and Libertarian votes dancing in peculiar unison. As the data points form a compelling line of best fit, one can't help but imagine a chorus of kerosene lamps flickering in rhythmic harmony with ballots being cast in the Last Frontier. It's almost as if the northern lights of Alaska themselves have taken a liking to the libertarian spirit and decided to mirror their fervor in the consumption of kerosene up north.
With a p-value of less than 0.01, there's an incredibly strong indication that this correlation isn't purely coincidental. You might say it's as significant as finding a polar bear wearing a "Vote Libertarian" sash while roasting marshmallows over a kerosene-fueled bonfire in the Yukon.
The remarkable strength of this correlation beckons us to ponder the deeper meaning behind the kerosene libertarian connection. Perhaps the gentle glow of kerosene lamps has a hypnotic influence on the political inclinations of our northern neighbors, or maybe it's the scent of libertarian ideals in the Alaskan air that kindles a greater thirst for kerosene in the Great White North. In any case, this correlation isn't just statistically significant; it's wildly entertaining and leaves us yearning for more quirky conundrums to untangle.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[CONCLUSION]]



ChatGPT:

[[CONCLUSİON]]

In conclusion, our findings have shed an illuminating light on the curiously correlated worlds of kerosene consumption in Canada and votes for the Libertarian presidential candidate in Alaska. It's as if the statistical stars aligned to unveil this whimsical tango of kerosene and libertarianism, leaving us marveling at the perplexing dance of data points.

As we wrap up this peculiar journey, we can't help but imagine the kerosene fumes and libertarian fervor intertwining in a waltz of statistical absurdity. It’s almost like the data itself is whispering, "Vote Libertarian, ignite the kerosene, and let the correlation shine bright like the northern lights."

However, despite the hilarity and marvel of this discovery, it seems we've reached the end of the road for this particular avenue of research. There's no need to set fire to more kerosene or cast more libertarian votes in pursuit of this correlation - the peculiar puzzle has been unraveled, and it's time to extinguish the flames of further investigation in this particular realm of statistical whimsy.


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide fictional names of academic journals. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide the name of a funny but plausible sounding research, scientific, or academic journal that would publish a paper entited Kerosene Consumption in Canada and Libertarian Votes in Alaska: A Correlative Conundrum. Respond only with the name of a fictional academic journal.

ChatGPT:

The Journal of Quirky Quantitative Analysis


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide fictional names of nonprofit research organizations and associations. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide the name of a funny but plausible sounding nonprofit, academic, or scientific association or organization that would sponsor research that resulted in a paper entited Kerosene Consumption in Canada and Libertarian Votes in Alaska: A Correlative Conundrum. Respond only with the name of a fictional organization.

ChatGPT:

The Society for Ethereal Energy Research and Analysis


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide potential search keywords separated by commas. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide potential search keywords for a paper titled Kerosene Consumption in Canada and Libertarian Votes in Alaska: A Correlative Conundrum with an abstract of This paper investigates the peculiar and previously unexplored relationship between kerosene consumption in Canada and votes for the Libertarian presidential candidate in Alaska. Tackling two seemingly unrelated topics, we delved into the intersecting realms of energy economics and political preferences with a touch of quirky curiosity. Leveraging data from the MIT Election Data and Science Lab, Harvard Dataverse, and the Energy Information Administration, our research unearthed a surprisingly robust correlation coefficient of 0.8868006 and a p-value of less than 0.01 for the years spanning from 1980 to 2020. As we navigate through the numerical labyrinth, we hope to shed light on this bizarre juxtaposition and perhaps even ignite a few sparks of humor among our esteemed colleagues. So grab your kerosene lamps and laissez-faire attitudes as we embark on this whimsical journey of statistical discovery!

ChatGPT:

kerosene consumption, Canada, Libertarian votes, Alaska, correlation, energy economics, political preferences, MIT Election Data and Science Lab, Harvard Dataverse, Energy Information Administration, correlation coefficient, p-value, statistical analysis, whimsical journey

*There is a bunch of Python happening behind the scenes to turn this prompt sequence into a PDF.



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Data details

Votes for the Libertarian Presidential candidate in Alaska
Detailed data title: Percentage of all votes cast for the Libertarian Presidential candidate in Alaska
Source: MIT Election Data and Science Lab, Harvard Dataverse
See what else correlates with Votes for the Libertarian Presidential candidate in Alaska

Kerosene used in Canada
Detailed data title: Volume of kerosene used consumed in Canada in millions of barrels per day
Source: Energy Information Administration
See what else correlates with Kerosene used in Canada

Correlation r = 0.8868006 (Pearson correlation coefficient)
Correlation is a measure of how much the variables move together. If it is 0.99, when one goes up the other goes up. If it is 0.02, the connection is very weak or non-existent. If it is -0.99, then when one goes up the other goes down. If it is 1.00, you probably messed up your correlation function.

r2 = 0.7864153 (Coefficient of determination)
This means 78.6% of the change in the one variable (i.e., Kerosene used in Canada) is predictable based on the change in the other (i.e., Votes for the Libertarian Presidential candidate in Alaska) over the 11 years from 1980 through 2020.

p < 0.01, which is statistically significant(Null hypothesis significance test)
The p-value is 0.00027. 0.0002740277424296115300000000
The p-value is a measure of how probable it is that we would randomly find a result this extreme. More specifically the p-value is a measure of how probable it is that we would randomly find a result this extreme if we had only tested one pair of variables one time.

But I am a p-villain. I absolutely did not test only one pair of variables one time. I correlated hundreds of millions of pairs of variables. I threw boatloads of data into an industrial-sized blender to find this correlation.

Who is going to stop me? p-value reporting doesn't require me to report how many calculations I had to go through in order to find a low p-value!
On average, you will find a correaltion as strong as 0.89 in 0.027% of random cases. Said differently, if you correlated 3,649 random variables Which I absolutely did.
with the same 10 degrees of freedom, Degrees of freedom is a measure of how many free components we are testing. In this case it is 10 because we have two variables measured over a period of 11 years. It's just the number of years minus ( the number of variables minus one ), which in this case simplifies to the number of years minus one.
you would randomly expect to find a correlation as strong as this one.

[ 0.61, 0.97 ] 95% correlation confidence interval (using the Fisher z-transformation)
The confidence interval is an estimate the range of the value of the correlation coefficient, using the correlation itself as an input. The values are meant to be the low and high end of the correlation coefficient with 95% confidence.

This one is a bit more complciated than the other calculations, but I include it because many people have been pushing for confidence intervals instead of p-value calculations (for example: NEJM. However, if you are dredging data, you can reliably find yourself in the 5%. That's my goal!


All values for the years included above: If I were being very sneaky, I could trim years from the beginning or end of the datasets to increase the correlation on some pairs of variables. I don't do that because there are already plenty of correlations in my database without monkeying with the years.

Still, sometimes one of the variables has more years of data available than the other. This page only shows the overlapping years. To see all the years, click on "See what else correlates with..." link above.
19801984198819921996200020042008201220162020
Votes for the Libertarian Presidential candidate in Alaska (Percentage of votes)11.66273.072182.740410.5330630.9419750.9230980.5358320.4871292.459945.877132.47462
Kerosene used in Canada (Million Barrels/Day)6615.032812.84711.21319.013668.002737.852465.262295.827879.368858.06011




Why this works

  1. Data dredging: I have 25,153 variables in my database. I compare all these variables against each other to find ones that randomly match up. That's 632,673,409 correlation calculations! This is called “data dredging.” Instead of starting with a hypothesis and testing it, I instead abused the data to see what correlations shake out. It’s a dangerous way to go about analysis, because any sufficiently large dataset will yield strong correlations completely at random.
  2. Lack of causal connection: There is probably Because these pages are automatically generated, it's possible that the two variables you are viewing are in fact causually related. I take steps to prevent the obvious ones from showing on the site (I don't let data about the weather in one city correlate with the weather in a neighboring city, for example), but sometimes they still pop up. If they are related, cool! You found a loophole.
    no direct connection between these variables, despite what the AI says above. This is exacerbated by the fact that I used "Years" as the base variable. Lots of things happen in a year that are not related to each other! Most studies would use something like "one person" in stead of "one year" to be the "thing" studied.
  3. Observations not independent: For many variables, sequential years are not independent of each other. If a population of people is continuously doing something every day, there is no reason to think they would suddenly change how they are doing that thing on January 1. A simple Personally I don't find any p-value calculation to be 'simple,' but you know what I mean.
    p-value calculation does not take this into account, so mathematically it appears less probable than it really is.




Try it yourself

You can calculate the values on this page on your own! Try running the Python code to see the calculation results. Step 1: Download and install Python on your computer.

Step 2: Open a plaintext editor like Notepad and paste the code below into it.

Step 3: Save the file as "calculate_correlation.py" in a place you will remember, like your desktop. Copy the file location to your clipboard. On Windows, you can right-click the file and click "Properties," and then copy what comes after "Location:" As an example, on my computer the location is "C:\Users\tyler\Desktop"

Step 4: Open a command line window. For example, by pressing start and typing "cmd" and them pressing enter.

Step 5: Install the required modules by typing "pip install numpy", then pressing enter, then typing "pip install scipy", then pressing enter.

Step 6: Navigate to the location where you saved the Python file by using the "cd" command. For example, I would type "cd C:\Users\tyler\Desktop" and push enter.

Step 7: Run the Python script by typing "python calculate_correlation.py"

If you run into any issues, I suggest asking ChatGPT to walk you through installing Python and running the code below on your system. Try this question:

"Walk me through installing Python on my computer to run a script that uses scipy and numpy. Go step-by-step and ask me to confirm before moving on. Start by asking me questions about my operating system so that you know how to proceed. Assume I want the simplest installation with the latest version of Python and that I do not currently have any of the necessary elements installed. Remember to only give me one step per response and confirm I have done it before proceeding."


# These modules make it easier to perform the calculation
import numpy as np
from scipy import stats

# We'll define a function that we can call to return the correlation calculations
def calculate_correlation(array1, array2):

    # Calculate Pearson correlation coefficient and p-value
    correlation, p_value = stats.pearsonr(array1, array2)

    # Calculate R-squared as the square of the correlation coefficient
    r_squared = correlation**2

    return correlation, r_squared, p_value

# These are the arrays for the variables shown on this page, but you can modify them to be any two sets of numbers
array_1 = np.array([11.6627,3.07218,2.74041,0.533063,0.941975,0.923098,0.535832,0.487129,2.45994,5.87713,2.47462,])
array_2 = np.array([66,15.0328,12.847,11.2131,9.01366,8.00273,7.85246,5.26229,5.82787,9.36885,8.06011,])
array_1_name = "Votes for the Libertarian Presidential candidate in Alaska"
array_2_name = "Kerosene used in Canada"

# Perform the calculation
print(f"Calculating the correlation between {array_1_name} and {array_2_name}...")
correlation, r_squared, p_value = calculate_correlation(array_1, array_2)

# Print the results
print("Correlation Coefficient:", correlation)
print("R-squared:", r_squared)
print("P-value:", p_value)



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Correlation ID: 4347 · Black Variable ID: 26053 · Red Variable ID: 24275
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