Spurious correlation #4,159 · View random
A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is Popularity of the first name Johnathon and the second variable is Arson in Wyoming. The chart goes from 1985 to 2022, and the two variables track closely in value over that time.

A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is Popularity of the first name Johnathon and the second variable is Arson in Wyoming. The chart goes from 1985 to 2022, and the two variables track closely in value over that time.

Download png, svg

AI explanation

Fewer individuals named Johnathon meant a decrease in the odds of someone mistakenly yelling "Fire, Johnathon, fire!" which had been a surprisingly common trigger for amateur pyromaniacs in Wyoming. With this name waning in popularity, the unintentional incitement to arson also decreased, leading to a noticeable drop in fire-related mischief across the state.

^{Show image generation prompt} Model: dalle-3
Prompt: [ A photo-realistic image ] of a charming town square in small-town Wyoming. The setting is serene and peaceful, with old-fashioned lampposts lining the cobblestone paths. In the center, there is a small group of people gathered, enjoying a community event. The townsfolk are engaged in casual conversations, children playing, and vendors selling their goods. One can notice a decrease in the number of individuals named "Johnathon" in the crowd, creating a noticeable absence of the name. Despite the absence, the overall atmosphere exudes tranquility, with no accidental shouts of "Fire, Johnathon, fire!" causing any mischief. The scene depicts a harmonious and undisturbed town square, free from any fire-related commotion. The depiction should include only scenes, people, and objects, it should not include text or speech bubbles.

This image generation prompt was also generated by AI, using the following sequence:

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You select one of a few potential scene descriptors that seems to go along with the variables described. You respond only with the scene descriptions provided and say nothing else.
User prompt: Here are two variables: Popularity of the first name Johnathon and Arson in Wyoming. Given these, which of the following image style descriptions seems most appropriate? Pick the one that seems to be related to one of the variables at hand. Please respond with only one of the following potential descriptions: Cutsy art illustration A photo-realistic image Macabre An image that looks like it is a scene from A Disney Movie Oragami
ChatGPT: A photo-realistic image

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You describe simple visual scenes that depict the two variables stated. You combine both variables into one scene.
User prompt: Please describe a visual scene that prominently depicts both Popularity of the first name Johnathon and Arson in Wyoming, in the following situation: Fewer individuals named Johnathon meant a decrease in the odds of someone mistakenly yelling "Fire, Johnathon, fire!" which had been a surprisingly common trigger for amateur pyromaniacs in Wyoming. With this name waning in popularity, the unintentional incitement to arson also decreased, leading to a noticeable drop in fire-related mischief across the state.. Keep the description simple.
ChatGPT: In a small Wyoming town, a local gathering at the town square showed a noticeable decrease in the number of people named Johnathon. As a result, there was a reduced likelihood of someone accidentally shouting "Fire, Johnathon, fire!" in the midst of the crowd. This decline in the name's popularity resulted in a decrease of unintentional incitements to arson, leading to a peaceful and undisturbed atmosphere without any fire-related mischief.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You write and improve image generation prompts for DALLE-3. You maintain the same subjects, but enhance the visuals.
User prompt: Please respond with an image generation prompt that would be likely to create an interesting visual using DALLE-3, using the following style: [ A photo-realistic image ] and depicting this scene: In a small Wyoming town, a local gathering at the town square showed a noticeable decrease in the number of people named Johnathon. As a result, there was a reduced likelihood of someone accidentally shouting "Fire, Johnathon, fire!" in the midst of the crowd. This decline in the name's popularity resulted in a decrease of unintentional incitements to arson, leading to a peaceful and undisturbed atmosphere without any fire-related mischief. Keep the visual depiction simple. Do not include any words or speech bubbles.
ChatGPT: [ A photo-realistic image ] of a charming town square in small-town Wyoming. The setting is serene and peaceful, with old-fashioned lampposts lining the cobblestone paths. In the center, there is a small group of people gathered, enjoying a community event. The townsfolk are engaged in casual conversations, children playing, and vendors selling their goods. One can notice a decrease in the number of individuals named "Johnathon" in the crowd, creating a noticeable absence of the name. Despite the absence, the overall atmosphere exudes tranquility, with no accidental shouts of "Fire, Johnathon, fire!" causing any mischief. The scene depicts a harmonious and undisturbed town square, free from any fire-related commotion.

*Variations in the User Prompts from chart to chart are just the result of random number generation in Python. I wrote a few arrays of various styles and methods to ask questions to change up the results. Every time this site writes an explanation or generates an image, the script picks from each at random.

I sequence the requests into multiple prompts because I find GPT 3.5 to perform much better with short, well-managed contexts. Thus, I track the context directly in Python and only ask ChatGPT targeted questions.
^{Show prompt for explanation} Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106 (fine-tuned)
System prompt: You provide humorous responses in the form of plausible sounding explanations for correlations. You assume the correlation is causative for the purpose of the explanation even if it is ridiculous. You do not chat with the user, you only reply with the causal connection explanation and nothing else.
User prompt: Please make up a funny explanation for how a decrease in Popularity of the first name Johnathon caused Arson in Wyoming to decrease.

AI academic paper

(Because p < 0.01)

The Name Game: Exploring the Incendiary Link Between Johnathon's Popularity and Arson in Wyoming

The Journal of Eccentric Societal Phenomena

Jan 2024

Reminder: This paper is AI-generated. Not real!

^{Show prompt used to generate this paper} Quick note: This sequence is long and repetitive. That's how the prompt engineering works for this one. I manage the output in Python to format it into this PDF.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a goofy academic researcher writing an academic paper. You follow the rules, but you throw out convention regularly to make jokes and funny asides.You draft a literature review section of an academic research paper, that starts out dry for the first few sentences but then becomes hilarious and goofy.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up a literature review section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Popularity of the first name Johnathon and Arson in Wyoming. Make lots of jokes, goofy observations, and puns.

Speak in the present tense for this section (the authors find...), as is common in academic research paper literature reviews. Name the sources in a format similar to this: In "Book," the authors find lorem and ipsum.

Make up the lorem and ipsum part, but make it sound related to the topic at hand.

Start by naming serious-sounding studies by authors like Smith, Doe, and Jones - but then quickly devolve. Name some real non-fiction books that would be related to the topic. Then name some real fiction books that sound like they could be related. Then devolve ever further, and mention something completely ridiculous, like you conducted literature review by reading the backs of shampoo bottles.

Here is the title and abstract of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
The Name Game: Exploring the Incendiary Link Between Johnathon's Popularity and Arson in Wyoming

[[ABSTRACT]]
In this study, we set out to tackle the burning question of whether there is any connection between the popularity of the first name Johnathon and incidents of arson in the great state of Wyoming. Using a comprehensive dataset from the US Social Security Administration and FBI Criminal Justice Information Services spanning the years 1985 to 2022, we applied rigorous statistical analyses to shed light on this fiery relationship. Our findings reveal a striking correlation coefficient of 0.9511808 and a p-value < 0.01, suggesting a robust association between the two variables. Our results will not only ignite discussions in the academic community but also spark curiosity among the general public about the curious influence of names on crime.

-------

And here is the introduction section that led to this literature review:
[[INTRODUCTION]]
In the illustrious realm of academia, where researchers often delve into weighty matters and solemn topics, there occasionally emerges a study that ignites the imagination and sets the academic world ablaze. Our research aims to kindle such curiosity by exploring an unexpected and captivating correlation - the relationship between the popularity of the first name Johnathon and incidents of arson in the vast expanse of Wyoming.
Indeed, as we embark on this journey, one might be inclined to think, "What's in a name?" Well, according to our preliminary findings, quite a lot, it seems.
As we all know, the state of Wyoming is referred to as the "Equality State." However, our research seeks to examine whether there is indeed an "equal-fire" state, where the frequency of arsons aligns with the prevalence of a particular moniker. The burning question of whether the popularity of the name Johnathon could stoke the flames of arson in this picturesque state cannot be casually dismissed.
This study was ignited by a spark of curiosity that couldn't be extinguished. As we pored over the vast expanse of data from the US Social Security Administration and FBI Criminal Justice Information Services, we found ourselves in the midst of an inferno of statistical analyses, seeking to uncover any sparks of correlation between these seemingly unrelated variables.
Now, one may understandably raise an eyebrow at the seemingly outrageous connection we are proposing. After all, what could a harmless name, often associated with boyish charm and a penchant for friendly competition on the schoolyard, possibly have to do with the illicit act of arson? Our suspicions were piqued, and we were determined to extinguish any doubts by putting the hypothesis to the test.
So, dear reader, join us as we illuminate this scorching correlation, heating up the debate in both academic circles and casual conversations. This study seeks not only to shed light on this strange connection but also to fan the flames of curiosity about the surprising influence of names on criminal behavior. After all, academic research does not have to be a bland and soulless pursuit – it's perfectly acceptable to bring a bit of heat and humor into the mix. Let's set the stage for this fiery exploration and see if, in the end, the name Johnathon truly does "arson" in Wyoming.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]

ChatGPT:
[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]

The connection between first names and their potential influence on criminal tendencies has long been a subject of both intrigue and skepticism in the field of social sciences. Smith et al. (2010) conducted a comprehensive analysis of the impact of first names on criminal behavior, finding that individuals with certain names were more likely to engage in illicit activities. Meanwhile, Doe and Jones (2015) explored the societal perceptions and stereotypes associated with specific first names, highlighting the potential implications for criminal profiling and behavior.

However, as we delve into the specific link between the popularity of the first name Johnathon and arson in the state of Wyoming, the literature becomes as sparse as a wildfire in a snowstorm. Our exploration ventured into uncharted territory, where the scholarly terrain was as barren as a desert devoid of tumbleweeds.

Turning our attention to non-fiction literature that may offer some insights into the question at hand, books such as "The Influence of Names on Destiny" by Lorem Ipsum (2008) and "Name Power: The Definitive Guide to Naming Your Child" by Ipsum Lorem (2014) provided intriguing perspectives on the potential impact of names on various aspects of life. However, the connection to criminal behavior in the context of Johnathon and arson remained elusive in these sources.

On the other hand, works of fiction have explored the enigmatic power of names in captivating ways. Take, for instance, "The Shadow of Arson" by Mystery Author (2017) and "The Blazing Alias" by Thriller Writer (2019), both of which delved into the mysterious allure of names and their potential to ignite unforeseen consequences.

Feeling determined to leave no stone unturned in our quest for understanding, we even delved into unconventional sources for potential insights. As unusual as it may sound, our literature review extended beyond traditional academic texts to include the backs of shampoo bottles, hoping to uncover any hidden clues in the most unexpected of places. However, while we did encounter some surprisingly elaborate descriptions of herbal essences and promises of luscious locks, the connection to Johnathon and arson remained disappointingly absent in this peculiar pursuit.

As we wrap up this literature review, we find ourselves in a position reminiscent of a lone campfire in the midst of a vast, dark forest - we've searched high and low, but the sparks of insight into the relationship between Johnathon's popularity and arson in Wyoming remain elusive. It seems that the flames of this correlation will only be fully kindled through the rigorous analyses and findings of our own research.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a goofy academic researcher writing an academic paper. You follow the rules, but you throw out convention regularly to make jokes and funny asides.You draft the methodology section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the methodology section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Popularity of the first name Johnathon and Arson in Wyoming. Make lots of jokes, goofy observations, and puns.

Your research team collected data from all across the internet, but mostly just used information from US Social Security Administration and FBI Criminal Justice Information Services . You used data from 1985 to 2022

Make up the research methods you don't know. Make them a bit goofy and convoluted.

Here is the title, abstract, and introduction of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
The Name Game: Exploring the Incendiary Link Between Johnathon's Popularity and Arson in Wyoming

[[ABSTRACT]]
In this study, we set out to tackle the burning question of whether there is any connection between the popularity of the first name Johnathon and incidents of arson in the great state of Wyoming. Using a comprehensive dataset from the US Social Security Administration and FBI Criminal Justice Information Services spanning the years 1985 to 2022, we applied rigorous statistical analyses to shed light on this fiery relationship. Our findings reveal a striking correlation coefficient of 0.9511808 and a p-value < 0.01, suggesting a robust association between the two variables. Our results will not only ignite discussions in the academic community but also spark curiosity among the general public about the curious influence of names on crime.

[[INTRODUCTION]]
In the illustrious realm of academia, where researchers often delve into weighty matters and solemn topics, there occasionally emerges a study that ignites the imagination and sets the academic world ablaze. Our research aims to kindle such curiosity by exploring an unexpected and captivating correlation - the relationship between the popularity of the first name Johnathon and incidents of arson in the vast expanse of Wyoming.
Indeed, as we embark on this journey, one might be inclined to think, "What's in a name?" Well, according to our preliminary findings, quite a lot, it seems.
As we all know, the state of Wyoming is referred to as the "Equality State." However, our research seeks to examine whether there is indeed an "equal-fire" state, where the frequency of arsons aligns with the prevalence of a particular moniker. The burning question of whether the popularity of the name Johnathon could stoke the flames of arson in this picturesque state cannot be casually dismissed.
This study was ignited by a spark of curiosity that couldn't be extinguished. As we pored over the vast expanse of data from the US Social Security Administration and FBI Criminal Justice Information Services, we found ourselves in the midst of an inferno of statistical analyses, seeking to uncover any sparks of correlation between these seemingly unrelated variables.
Now, one may understandably raise an eyebrow at the seemingly outrageous connection we are proposing. After all, what could a harmless name, often associated with boyish charm and a penchant for friendly competition on the schoolyard, possibly have to do with the illicit act of arson? Our suspicions were piqued, and we were determined to extinguish any doubts by putting the hypothesis to the test.
So, dear reader, join us as we illuminate this scorching correlation, heating up the debate in both academic circles and casual conversations. This study seeks not only to shed light on this strange connection but also to fan the flames of curiosity about the surprising influence of names on criminal behavior. After all, academic research does not have to be a bland and soulless pursuit – it's perfectly acceptable to bring a bit of heat and humor into the mix. Let's set the stage for this fiery exploration and see if, in the end, the name Johnathon truly does "arson" in Wyoming.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[METHODOLOGY]]

ChatGPT:

[[METHODOLOGY]]

To unravel the enigmatic connection between the popularity of the first name Johnathon and instances of arson in the untamed wilds of Wyoming, our research team embarked on a quest that would make even the most intrepid explorer think twice. Armed with data from the US Social Security Administration and the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services spanning nearly four decades, we set out to navigate the treacherous landscape of statistical analyses and chart a course through the uncharted territory of name-related arson.

Data Collection:
Our journey began with the retrieval of first name frequency data from the US Social Security Administration, which provided us with a trove of information on the prevalence of the name Johnathon across different years. We then harnessed the power of the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services to procure detailed records of arson incidents in the state of Wyoming from 1985 to 2022. It was as if we were mining for hidden treasures in the vast expanse of cyberspace, carefully selecting the finest nuggets of data to weave into the fabric of our analysis.

Name Popularity Index:
With the data in hand, we constructed a comprehensive Name Popularity Index (NPI), which served as a barometer of the ebb and flow of Johnathon's dominance in the landscape of given names. This index, akin to a compass guiding us through the turbulent seas of nomenclature, allowed us to gauge the relative "heat" of Johnathon's popularity over time. We employed sophisticated algorithms and mathematical incantations to breathe life into this index, ensuring that it captured the essence of Johnathon's ascent and descent in the hierarchy of names.

Arson Incidence Metrics:
Simultaneously, we delved into the depths of arson incident metrics, carefully cataloging the frequency and distribution of these fiery transgressions across the plains of Wyoming. Each incident was scrutinized with the precision of a forensic investigator, as we sought to uncover patterns and trends in the seemingly chaotic dance of flames.

Statistical Alchemy:
Our next feat was to channel the mystical powers of statistical alchemy to conjure correlations and causations from the primordial soup of data. We invoked the spirits of Pearson, Spearman, and Kendall, ancient guardians of statistical wisdom, to guide us through the labyrinthine paths of correlation analyses. Our ritualistic dances with p-values and confidence intervals were nothing short of a spectacle, as we navigated the tumultuous waters of statistical significance with the finesse of seasoned seafarers.

Regression Wizardry:
But our quest did not end there. No, we ventured further into the esoteric realm of regression analyses, where we wielded the formidable tools of linear, logistic, and even polynomial regression to tease out potential relationships between name popularity and arson incidents. It was a veritable cauldron of mathematical sorcery, as we stirred the bubbling brew of variables and coefficients, hoping to distill meaningful insights from the brew.

Robustness Checks:
To ensure that our findings stood the test of fiery scrutiny, we subjected our analyses to a barrage of robustness checks, akin to fortifying our scholarly fortress against the siege of skepticism. Sensitivity analyses, bootstrapping techniques, and Monte Carlo simulations were our armaments, shielding our results from the arrows of doubt.

Qualitative Enrichment:
Finally, to add a touch of warmth and humanity to our quantitative endeavors, we delved into qualitative interviews and anecdotes, speaking with inhabitants of Wyoming to garner their perspectives on the intersection of names and arson. Their stories and musings were like kindling to our understanding, imbuing our research with the colorful hues of human experience.

In sum, our methodology was a tapestry of data excavation, statistical wizardry, and qualitative immersion, woven together with the threads of rigor and curiosity. As we present our findings, we invite the scholarly community to join us in this fiery odyssey, where the name Johnathon and the flames of arson converge in a dance of unexpected correlation.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a goofy academic researcher writing an academic paper. You follow the rules, but you throw out convention regularly to make jokes and funny asides.You draft the discussion section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the discussion section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Popularity of the first name Johnathon and Arson in Wyoming. Make lots of jokes, goofy observations, and puns.

Limit your response to 500 tokens.

Here are the title, abstract, literature review, and results sections. Please harken back to 1-2 of the goofy items in the literature review, but pretend to take them completely seriously. Discuss how your results supported the prior research.

Do not write a conclusion. I will add a conclusion after this.

[[TITLE]]
The Name Game: Exploring the Incendiary Link Between Johnathon's Popularity and Arson in Wyoming

[[ABSTRACT]]
In this study, we set out to tackle the burning question of whether there is any connection between the popularity of the first name Johnathon and incidents of arson in the great state of Wyoming. Using a comprehensive dataset from the US Social Security Administration and FBI Criminal Justice Information Services spanning the years 1985 to 2022, we applied rigorous statistical analyses to shed light on this fiery relationship. Our findings reveal a striking correlation coefficient of 0.9511808 and a p-value < 0.01, suggesting a robust association between the two variables. Our results will not only ignite discussions in the academic community but also spark curiosity among the general public about the curious influence of names on crime.

[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]
The connection between first names and their potential influence on criminal tendencies has long been a subject of both intrigue and skepticism in the field of social sciences. Smith et al. (2010) conducted a comprehensive analysis of the impact of first names on criminal behavior, finding that individuals with certain names were more likely to engage in illicit activities. Meanwhile, Doe and Jones (2015) explored the societal perceptions and stereotypes associated with specific first names, highlighting the potential implications for criminal profiling and behavior.
However, as we delve into the specific link between the popularity of the first name Johnathon and arson in the state of Wyoming, the literature becomes as sparse as a wildfire in a snowstorm. Our exploration ventured into uncharted territory, where the scholarly terrain was as barren as a desert devoid of tumbleweeds.
Turning our attention to non-fiction literature that may offer some insights into the question at hand, books such as "The Influence of Names on Destiny" by Lorem Ipsum (2008) and "Name Power: The Definitive Guide to Naming Your Child" by Ipsum Lorem (2014) provided intriguing perspectives on the potential impact of names on various aspects of life. However, the connection to criminal behavior in the context of Johnathon and arson remained elusive in these sources.
On the other hand, works of fiction have explored the enigmatic power of names in captivating ways. Take, for instance, "The Shadow of Arson" by Mystery Author (2017) and "The Blazing Alias" by Thriller Writer (2019), both of which delved into the mysterious allure of names and their potential to ignite unforeseen consequences.
Feeling determined to leave no stone unturned in our quest for understanding, we even delved into unconventional sources for potential insights. As unusual as it may sound, our literature review extended beyond traditional academic texts to include the backs of shampoo bottles, hoping to uncover any hidden clues in the most unexpected of places. However, while we did encounter some surprisingly elaborate descriptions of herbal essences and promises of luscious locks, the connection to Johnathon and arson remained disappointingly absent in this peculiar pursuit.
As we wrap up this literature review, we find ourselves in a position reminiscent of a lone campfire in the midst of a vast, dark forest - we've searched high and low, but the sparks of insight into the relationship between Johnathon's popularity and arson in Wyoming remain elusive. It seems that the flames of this correlation will only be fully kindled through the rigorous analyses and findings of our own research.

[[RESULTS]]
The scorching heat of our statistical analyses has revealed an astonishing correlation coefficient of 0.9511808 between the popularity of the first name Johnathon and incidents of arson in the state of Wyoming. This coefficient, with an r-squared of 0.9047448 and a p-value < 0.01, provides compelling evidence of a robust association between these seemingly unrelated variables. It seems that the name Johnathon is not just fueling friendly banter on the playground but may also be igniting a fiery streak of criminal behavior in the Equality State.
Upon examining Fig. 1, our scatterplot illustrates this sizzling relationship with striking clarity. It's a visual representation that is bound to set the academic world ablaze with curiosity and spark lively debates among researchers and casual observers alike. The graph unmistakably showcases the strong positive correlation between the frequency of the name Johnathon and reported incidents of arson in Wyoming over the past few decades. It turns out that the name Johnathon is not just kindling conversations; it may be setting the stage for pyrotechnic displays of criminal activity in the state.
The implications of these findings are incendiary, to say the least. Indeed, our results not only add fuel to the age-old debate about nature versus nurture but also raise the temperature on discussions about the unexpected influence of names on criminal behavior. The scorching correlation we've uncovered suggests that there may be more to a name than meets the eye – it could very well serve as a spark that lights the fuse for criminal acts.
These results not only illuminate the sizzling connection between the popularity of the name Johnathon and arson in Wyoming but also stoke the flames of curiosity in the academic community and beyond. It appears that the old adage, "Where there's smoke, there's fire," may hold true in more ways than one. The name Johnathon, it seems, may just be setting Wyoming ablaze in more ways than we had ever imagined.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[DISCUSSION]]

ChatGPT:

[[DISCUSSION]]

Our study has certainly sparked considerable excitement and raised some burning questions about the potential influence of names on criminal behavior. The scorching correlation we unveiled between the popularity of the first name Johnathon and incidents of arson in Wyoming not only adds fuel to the age-old debate about the nature versus nurture of criminal tendencies but also sets the stage for a sizzling conversation about the unexpected impact of nomenclature on unlawful activities.

Our findings echo the earlier work of Smith et al. (2010), who postulated that certain names may indeed be linked to a higher propensity for engaging in illicit behavior. It seems that Johnathons might be more inclined to ignite mischief than their counterparts with different monikers. Additionally, our results align with the societal perceptions and stereotypes associated with specific names, as highlighted by Doe and Jones (2015). It appears that the name Johnathon isn't just a popular choice for parents; it may also be a popular choice for individuals with a penchant for playing with fire.

Drawing from our literature review's brief interlude into the realm of fiction, it's fascinating to note the parallels between our research and the enigmatic power of names depicted in "The Shadow of Arson" and "The Blazing Alias." The connection between the popularity of a name and its potential to spark unforeseen consequences seems to be more than just the stuff of page-turning thrillers - it's a real-world phenomenon that our study has brought to light.

Now, some might question the practical applications of these findings. They might ask, "What's in a name?" Well, according to our results, quite a lot! The implications of our study extend beyond mere curiosity, as they shed light on the unforeseen facets of human behavior and the influence of seemingly innocuous factors, such as names, on criminal tendencies. It's a reminder that when it comes to understanding human behavior, we must be open to exploring unorthodox avenues, even if it means venturing into the unconventional territory of shampoo bottle insights.

In conclusion, our findings suggest that the name Johnathon may not only be popular among parents but also among individuals who are not averse to lighting a metaphorical or literal fire or two. It seems that this seemingly innocuous name could very well serve as a catalyst for igniting criminal acts in the Equality State. Our study paves the way for further examination of the intricate connections between names, societal perceptions, and criminal behavior, leaving us with the flaming question, "Is there a firestarter in a name?"

And with that, let's keep the flames of curiosity burning as we continue delving into the fiery underworld of unusual correlations.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a goofy academic researcher writing an academic paper. You follow the rules, but you throw out convention regularly to make jokes and funny asides.You draft the discussion section of goofy academic research papers that sounds like it belongs based on the title and abstract provided.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up a short conclusion of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Popularity of the first name Johnathon and Arson in Wyoming. Make lots of jokes, goofy observations, and puns.

Limit your response to 300 tokens. At the very end, assert that no more research is needed in this area.

Here are the title, abstract, introduction, and results sections.
[[TITLE]]
The Name Game: Exploring the Incendiary Link Between Johnathon's Popularity and Arson in Wyoming

[[ABSTRACT]]
In this study, we set out to tackle the burning question of whether there is any connection between the popularity of the first name Johnathon and incidents of arson in the great state of Wyoming. Using a comprehensive dataset from the US Social Security Administration and FBI Criminal Justice Information Services spanning the years 1985 to 2022, we applied rigorous statistical analyses to shed light on this fiery relationship. Our findings reveal a striking correlation coefficient of 0.9511808 and a p-value < 0.01, suggesting a robust association between the two variables. Our results will not only ignite discussions in the academic community but also spark curiosity among the general public about the curious influence of names on crime.

[[INTRDUCTION]]
In the illustrious realm of academia, where researchers often delve into weighty matters and solemn topics, there occasionally emerges a study that ignites the imagination and sets the academic world ablaze. Our research aims to kindle such curiosity by exploring an unexpected and captivating correlation - the relationship between the popularity of the first name Johnathon and incidents of arson in the vast expanse of Wyoming.
Indeed, as we embark on this journey, one might be inclined to think, "What's in a name?" Well, according to our preliminary findings, quite a lot, it seems.
As we all know, the state of Wyoming is referred to as the "Equality State." However, our research seeks to examine whether there is indeed an "equal-fire" state, where the frequency of arsons aligns with the prevalence of a particular moniker. The burning question of whether the popularity of the name Johnathon could stoke the flames of arson in this picturesque state cannot be casually dismissed.
This study was ignited by a spark of curiosity that couldn't be extinguished. As we pored over the vast expanse of data from the US Social Security Administration and FBI Criminal Justice Information Services, we found ourselves in the midst of an inferno of statistical analyses, seeking to uncover any sparks of correlation between these seemingly unrelated variables.
Now, one may understandably raise an eyebrow at the seemingly outrageous connection we are proposing. After all, what could a harmless name, often associated with boyish charm and a penchant for friendly competition on the schoolyard, possibly have to do with the illicit act of arson? Our suspicions were piqued, and we were determined to extinguish any doubts by putting the hypothesis to the test.
So, dear reader, join us as we illuminate this scorching correlation, heating up the debate in both academic circles and casual conversations. This study seeks not only to shed light on this strange connection but also to fan the flames of curiosity about the surprising influence of names on criminal behavior. After all, academic research does not have to be a bland and soulless pursuit – it's perfectly acceptable to bring a bit of heat and humor into the mix. Let's set the stage for this fiery exploration and see if, in the end, the name Johnathon truly does "arson" in Wyoming.

[[RESULTS]]
The scorching heat of our statistical analyses has revealed an astonishing correlation coefficient of 0.9511808 between the popularity of the first name Johnathon and incidents of arson in the state of Wyoming. This coefficient, with an r-squared of 0.9047448 and a p-value < 0.01, provides compelling evidence of a robust association between these seemingly unrelated variables. It seems that the name Johnathon is not just fueling friendly banter on the playground but may also be igniting a fiery streak of criminal behavior in the Equality State.
Upon examining Fig. 1, our scatterplot illustrates this sizzling relationship with striking clarity. It's a visual representation that is bound to set the academic world ablaze with curiosity and spark lively debates among researchers and casual observers alike. The graph unmistakably showcases the strong positive correlation between the frequency of the name Johnathon and reported incidents of arson in Wyoming over the past few decades. It turns out that the name Johnathon is not just kindling conversations; it may be setting the stage for pyrotechnic displays of criminal activity in the state.
The implications of these findings are incendiary, to say the least. Indeed, our results not only add fuel to the age-old debate about nature versus nurture but also raise the temperature on discussions about the unexpected influence of names on criminal behavior. The scorching correlation we've uncovered suggests that there may be more to a name than meets the eye – it could very well serve as a spark that lights the fuse for criminal acts.
These results not only illuminate the sizzling connection between the popularity of the name Johnathon and arson in Wyoming but also stoke the flames of curiosity in the academic community and beyond. It appears that the old adage, "Where there's smoke, there's fire," may hold true in more ways than one. The name Johnathon, it seems, may just be setting Wyoming ablaze in more ways than we had ever imagined.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[CONCLUSION]]

ChatGPT:

[[CONCLUSION]]

As we extinguish the flames of this scintillating study, it becomes clear that there is indeed a fiery association between the prevalence of the name Johnathon and incidents of arson in the scenic expanse of Wyoming. Our findings illuminate the unexpected pyrotechnic proclivity associated with this seemingly innocuous moniker, fueling discussions that are as hot as the burning buildings in our dataset.

One might wonder if parents should think twice before christening their newborns Johnathon, fearing they may inadvertently be cradling a tiny fire-starter. But fear not, dear reader, for correlation does not imply causation, and not all Johnathons are destined for a fiery fate. However, it might not hurt to keep a close eye on the little mischief-makers, just in case.

Our research also raises the question: What's in a name? It turns out, quite a bit - including the potential to spark criminal inclinations in the Equality State. After all, who knew that a simple name could hold such incendiary power?

In conclusion, our findings not only singe the eyebrows of traditional beliefs but also kindle a fervent interest in the curious influence of names on criminal behavior. It's clear that this blazing correlation has set the stage for a scorching debate, proving that where there's Johnathon, there may just be arson.

So, as we douse the flames of curiosity and wrap up this fiery exploration, it's safe to say that no more research is needed in this area. We've already burnt the midnight oil on this topic, and it's time to let this incendiary discovery simmer down. With that, we can confidently declare that the name Johnathon and arson in Wyoming have been thoroughly heated – I mean, researched.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide fictional names of academic journals. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide the name of a funny but plausible sounding research, scientific, or academic journal that would publish a paper entited The Name Game: Exploring the Incendiary Link Between Johnathon's Popularity and Arson in Wyoming. Respond only with the name of a fictional academic journal.

ChatGPT:

The Journal of Eccentric Societal Phenomena

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide fictional names of nonprofit research organizations and associations. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide the name of a funny but plausible sounding nonprofit, academic, or scientific association or organization that would sponsor research that resulted in a paper entited The Name Game: Exploring the Incendiary Link Between Johnathon's Popularity and Arson in Wyoming. Respond only with the name of a fictional organization.

ChatGPT:

The Society for the Ethical Advancement of Zany Research

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide potential search keywords separated by commas. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide potential search keywords for a paper titled The Name Game: Exploring the Incendiary Link Between Johnathon's Popularity and Arson in Wyoming with an abstract of In this study, we set out to tackle the burning question of whether there is any connection between the popularity of the first name Johnathon and incidents of arson in the great state of Wyoming. Using a comprehensive dataset from the US Social Security Administration and FBI Criminal Justice Information Services spanning the years 1985 to 2022, we applied rigorous statistical analyses to shed light on this fiery relationship. Our findings reveal a striking correlation coefficient of 0.9511808 and a p-value < 0.01, suggesting a robust association between the two variables. Our results will not only ignite discussions in the academic community but also spark curiosity among the general public about the curious influence of names on crime.

ChatGPT:

Johnathon, popularity, arson, Wyoming, correlation, statistical analysis, Social Security Administration, FBI, crime rates, names, influence, correlation coefficient, p-value, dataset, United States, criminal justice, academic discussions

*There is a bunch of Python happening behind the scenes to turn this prompt sequence into a PDF.

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Data details

Popularity of the first name Johnathon
Detailed data title: Babies of all sexes born in the US named Johnathon
Source: US Social Security Administration
See what else correlates with Popularity of the first name Johnathon

Arson in Wyoming
Detailed data title: The arson rate per 100,000 residents in Wyoming
Source: FBI Criminal Justice Information Services
See what else correlates with Arson in Wyoming

Correlation r = 0.9511808 (Pearson correlation coefficient)
Correlation is a measure of how much the variables move together. If it is 0.99, when one goes up the other goes up. If it is 0.02, the connection is very weak or non-existent. If it is -0.99, then when one goes up the other goes down. If it is 1.00, you probably messed up your correlation function.

r² = 0.9047448 (Coefficient of determination)
This means 90.5% of the change in the one variable (i.e., Arson in Wyoming) is predictable based on the change in the other (i.e., Popularity of the first name Johnathon) over the 38 years from 1985 through 2022.

p < 0.01, which is statistically significant(Null hypothesis significance test)
The p-value is 5.8E-20.^Show 0.0000000000000000000577176124
The p-value is a measure of how probable it is that we would randomly find a result this extreme.^Note More specifically the p-value is a measure of how probable it is that we would randomly find a result this extreme if we had only tested one pair of variables one time.

But I am a p-villain. I absolutely did not test only one pair of variables one time. I correlated hundreds of millions of pairs of variables. I threw boatloads of data into an industrial-sized blender to find this correlation.

Who is going to stop me? p-value reporting doesn't require me to report how many calculations I had to go through in order to find a low p-value!
On average, you will find a correaltion as strong as 0.95 in 5.8E-18% of random cases. Said differently, if you correlated 17,325,734,007,666,610,176 random variables^Note You don't actually need 17 quintillion variables to find a correlation like this one. I don't have that many variables in my database. You can also correlate variables that are not independent. I do this a lot.

p-value calculations are useful for understanding the probability of a result happening by chance. They are most useful when used to highlight the risk of a fluke outcome. For example, if you calculate a p-value of 0.30, the risk that the result is a fluke is high. It is good to know that! But there are lots of ways to get a p-value of less than 0.01, as evidenced by this project.

In this particular case, the values are so extreme as to be meaningless. That's why no one reports p-values with specificity after they drop below 0.01.

Just to be clear: I'm being completely transparent about the calculations. There is no math trickery. This is just how statistics shakes out when you calculate hundreds of millions of random correlations.
with the same 37 degrees of freedom, ^Note Degrees of freedom is a measure of how many free components we are testing. In this case it is 37 because we have two variables measured over a period of 38 years. It's just the number of years minus ( the number of variables minus one ), which in this case simplifies to the number of years minus one.
you would randomly expect to find a correlation as strong as this one.

[ 0.91, 0.97 ] 95% correlation confidence interval (using the Fisher z-transformation)
^{Read more about the confidence interval} The confidence interval is an estimate the range of the value of the correlation coefficient, using the correlation itself as an input. The values are meant to be the low and high end of the correlation coefficient with 95% confidence.

This one is a bit more complciated than the other calculations, but I include it because many people have been pushing for confidence intervals instead of p-value calculations (for example: NEJM. However, if you are dredging data, you can reliably find yourself in the 5%. That's my goal!

All values for the years included above: ^Note If I were being very sneaky, I could trim years from the beginning or end of the datasets to increase the correlation on some pairs of variables. I don't do that because there are already plenty of correlations in my database without monkeying with the years.

Still, sometimes one of the variables has more years of data available than the other. This page only shows the overlapping years. To see all the years, click on "See what else correlates with..." link above.

	1985	1986	1987	1988	1989	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
Popularity of the first name Johnathon (Babies born)	762	733	793	891	990	1090	1068	1023	967	948	859	871	741	783	729	696	616	609	533	486	457	467	425	371	395	282	265	265	249	234	171	143	131	143	122	126	92	90
Arson in Wyoming (Arson rate)	24.8	19.7	23.3	28.2	32.8	33.3	32.2	32.2	28.5	35.7	25.4	27.2	23.5	23.3	20.9	24.1	23.5	14.2	15.5	20	13	17.3	14	20.7	11.8	12.6	10.2	17.2	7.7	6.7	8.7	7.4	8.3	6.4	7.9	9.1	9.1	6.2

Why this works

Data dredging: I have 25,153 variables in my database. I compare all these variables against each other to find ones that randomly match up. That's 632,673,409 correlation calculations! This is called “data dredging.” Instead of starting with a hypothesis and testing it, I instead abused the data to see what correlations shake out. It’s a dangerous way to go about analysis, because any sufficiently large dataset will yield strong correlations completely at random.
Lack of causal connection: There is probably^Note Because these pages are automatically generated, it's possible that the two variables you are viewing are in fact causually related. I take steps to prevent the obvious ones from showing on the site (I don't let data about the weather in one city correlate with the weather in a neighboring city, for example), but sometimes they still pop up. If they are related, cool! You found a loophole.
no direct connection between these variables, despite what the AI says above. This is exacerbated by the fact that I used "Years" as the base variable. Lots of things happen in a year that are not related to each other! Most studies would use something like "one person" in stead of "one year" to be the "thing" studied.
Observations not independent: For many variables, sequential years are not independent of each other. If a population of people is continuously doing something every day, there is no reason to think they would suddenly change how they are doing that thing on January 1. A simple^Note Personally I don't find any p-value calculation to be 'simple,' but you know what I mean.
p-value calculation does not take this into account, so mathematically it appears less probable than it really is.

Try it yourself

You can calculate the values on this page on your own! Try running the Python code to see the calculation results. ^{Show the steps to do this.} Step 1: Download and install Python on your computer.

Step 2: Open a plaintext editor like Notepad and paste the code below into it.

Step 3: Save the file as "calculate_correlation.py" in a place you will remember, like your desktop. Copy the file location to your clipboard. On Windows, you can right-click the file and click "Properties," and then copy what comes after "Location:" As an example, on my computer the location is "C:\Users\tyler\Desktop"

Step 4: Open a command line window. For example, by pressing start and typing "cmd" and them pressing enter.

Step 5: Install the required modules by typing "pip install numpy", then pressing enter, then typing "pip install scipy", then pressing enter.

Step 6: Navigate to the location where you saved the Python file by using the "cd" command. For example, I would type "cd C:\Users\tyler\Desktop" and push enter.

Step 7: Run the Python script by typing "python calculate_correlation.py"

If you run into any issues, I suggest asking ChatGPT to walk you through installing Python and running the code below on your system. Try this question:

"Walk me through installing Python on my computer to run a script that uses scipy and numpy. Go step-by-step and ask me to confirm before moving on. Start by asking me questions about my operating system so that you know how to proceed. Assume I want the simplest installation with the latest version of Python and that I do not currently have any of the necessary elements installed. Remember to only give me one step per response and confirm I have done it before proceeding."

# These modules make it easier to perform the calculation
import numpy as np
from scipy import stats

# We'll define a function that we can call to return the correlation calculations
def calculate_correlation(array1, array2):

    # Calculate Pearson correlation coefficient and p-value
    correlation, p_value = stats.pearsonr(array1, array2)

    # Calculate R-squared as the square of the correlation coefficient
    r_squared = correlation**2

    return correlation, r_squared, p_value

# These are the arrays for the variables shown on this page, but you can modify them to be any two sets of numbers
array_1 = np.array([762,733,793,891,990,1090,1068,1023,967,948,859,871,741,783,729,696,616,609,533,486,457,467,425,371,395,282,265,265,249,234,171,143,131,143,122,126,92,90,])
array_2 = np.array([24.8,19.7,23.3,28.2,32.8,33.3,32.2,32.2,28.5,35.7,25.4,27.2,23.5,23.3,20.9,24.1,23.5,14.2,15.5,20,13,17.3,14,20.7,11.8,12.6,10.2,17.2,7.7,6.7,8.7,7.4,8.3,6.4,7.9,9.1,9.1,6.2,])
array_1_name = "Popularity of the first name Johnathon"
array_2_name = "Arson in Wyoming"

# Perform the calculation
print(f"Calculating the correlation between {array_1_name} and {array_2_name}...")
correlation, r_squared, p_value = calculate_correlation(array_1, array_2)

# Print the results
print("Correlation Coefficient:", correlation)
print("R-squared:", r_squared)
print("P-value:", p_value)

Reuseable content

You may re-use the images on this page for any purpose, even commercial purposes, without asking for permission. The only requirement is that you attribute Tyler Vigen. ^Note Attribution can take many different forms. If you leave the "tylervigen.com" link in the image, that satisfies it just fine. If you remove it and move it to a footnote, that's fine too. You can also just write "Charts courtesy of Tyler Vigen" at the bottom of an article.

You do not need to attribute "the spurious correlations website," and you don't even need to link here if you don't want to. I don't gain anything from pageviews. There are no ads on this site, there is nothing for sale, and I am not for hire.

For the record, I am just one person. Tyler Vigen, he/him/his. I do have degrees, but they should not go after my name unless you want to annoy my wife. If that is your goal, then go ahead and cite me as "Tyler Vigen, A.A. A.A.S. B.A. J.D." Otherwise it is just "Tyler Vigen."

When spoken, my last name is pronounced "vegan," like I don't eat meat.

Full license details.
For more on re-use permissions, or to get a signed release form, see tylervigen.com/permission.

Download images for these variables:

High resolution line chart ^Note The image linked here is a Scalable Vector Graphic (SVG). It is the highest resolution that is possible to achieve. It scales up beyond the size of the observable universe without pixelating. You do not need to email me asking if I have a higher resolution image. I do not. The physical limitations of our universe prevent me from providing you with an image that is any higher resolution than this one.

If you insert it into a PowerPoint presentation (a tool well-known for managing things that are the scale of the universe), you can right-click > "Ungroup" or "Create Shape" and then edit the lines and text directly. You can also change the colors this way.

Alternatively you can use a tool like Inkscape.
High resolution line chart, optimized for mobile
Alternative high resolution line chart
Scatterplot
Portable line chart (png)
Portable line chart (png), optimized for mobile
Line chart for only Popularity of the first name Johnathon
Line chart for only Arson in Wyoming
AI-generated correlation image
The spurious research paper: The Name Game: Exploring the Incendiary Link Between Johnathon's Popularity and Arson in Wyoming

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Correlation ID: 4159 · Black Variable ID: 2601 · Red Variable ID: 20076


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