Spurious correlation #4,094 · View random
A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is Air pollution in El Centro, California and the second variable is Carjackings in the US. The chart goes from 1995 to 2021, and the two variables track closely in value over that time.

A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is Air pollution in El Centro, California and the second variable is Carjackings in the US. The chart goes from 1995 to 2021, and the two variables track closely in value over that time.

Download png, svg

AI explanation

Lack of smog meant car thieves couldn't make a clean getaway.

^{Show image generation prompt} Model: dalle-3
Prompt: Create an image of a stark, imposing cityscape dominated by brutalist architecture. The clear blue sky above El Centro, California, provides a sharp contrast to the brutalist buildings. In the foreground, a car thief appears frustrated as they struggle to start a stolen vehicle, their unsuccessful getaway hindered by the unexpected lack of smog. The tension of the moment is highlighted by the harsh, angular lines of the buildings and the open, unobstructed sky. The depiction should include only scenes, people, and objects, it should not include text or speech bubbles.

This image generation prompt was also generated by AI, using the following sequence:

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You select one of a few potential scene descriptors that seems to go along with the variables described. You respond only with the scene descriptions provided and say nothing else.
User prompt: Here are two variables: Air pollution in El Centro, California and Carjackings in the US. Given these, which of the following image style descriptions seems most appropriate? Pick the one that seems to be related to one of the variables at hand. Please respond with only one of the following potential descriptions: Concept art a funny image macro Surrealism Brutalism inspired by bauhaus
ChatGPT: Brutalism

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You describe simple visual scenes that depict the two variables stated. You combine both variables into one scene.
User prompt: Please describe a visual scene that prominently depicts both Air pollution in El Centro, California and Carjackings in the US, in the following situation: Lack of smog meant car thieves couldn't make a clean getaway.. Keep the description simple.
ChatGPT: In El Centro, California, a clear blue sky stretches above the city, free of the usual smog. On the streets, a car thief looks frustrated as they attempt to start a stolen vehicle, unable to make a clean getaway due to the lack of smog obstructing the pursuit.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You write and improve image generation prompts for DALLE-3. You maintain the same subjects, but enhance the visuals.
User prompt: Please respond with an image generation prompt that would be likely to create an interesting visual using DALLE-3, using the following style: [ Brutalism ] and depicting this scene: In El Centro, California, a clear blue sky stretches above the city, free of the usual smog. On the streets, a car thief looks frustrated as they attempt to start a stolen vehicle, unable to make a clean getaway due to the lack of smog obstructing the pursuit. Keep the visual depiction simple. Do not include any words or speech bubbles.
ChatGPT: Create an image of a stark, imposing cityscape dominated by brutalist architecture. The clear blue sky above El Centro, California, provides a sharp contrast to the brutalist buildings. In the foreground, a car thief appears frustrated as they struggle to start a stolen vehicle, their unsuccessful getaway hindered by the unexpected lack of smog. The tension of the moment is highlighted by the harsh, angular lines of the buildings and the open, unobstructed sky.

*Variations in the User Prompts from chart to chart are just the result of random number generation in Python. I wrote a few arrays of various styles and methods to ask questions to change up the results. Every time this site writes an explanation or generates an image, the script picks from each at random.

I sequence the requests into multiple prompts because I find GPT 3.5 to perform much better with short, well-managed contexts. Thus, I track the context directly in Python and only ask ChatGPT targeted questions.
^{Show prompt for explanation} Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106 (fine-tuned)
System prompt: You provide humorous responses in the form of plausible sounding explanations for correlations. You assume the correlation is causative for the purpose of the explanation even if it is ridiculous. You do not chat with the user, you only reply with the causal connection explanation and nothing else.
User prompt: Please make up a funny explanation for how a decrease in Air pollution in El Centro, California caused Carjackings in the US to decrease. Include one good pun.

AI academic paper

(Because p < 0.01)

Clearing the Air: Uncovering the Smoggy Link Between Air Pollution in El Centro, California, and Carjackings in the US

The Journal of Environmental Criminology and Atmospheric Science

Jan 2024

Reminder: This paper is AI-generated. Not real!

^{Show prompt used to generate this paper} Quick note: This sequence is long and repetitive. That's how the prompt engineering works for this one. I manage the output in Python to format it into this PDF.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a goofy academic researcher writing an academic paper. You follow the rules, but you throw out convention regularly to make jokes and funny asides.You draft a literature review section of an academic research paper, that starts out dry for the first few sentences but then becomes hilarious and goofy.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up a literature review section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Air pollution in El Centro, California and Carjackings in the US. You can't resist a good dad joke. Add a relevant dad joke related to the content every couple of sentences.

Speak in the present tense for this section (the authors find...), as is common in academic research paper literature reviews. Name the sources in a format similar to this: In "Book," the authors find lorem and ipsum.

Make up the lorem and ipsum part, but make it sound related to the topic at hand.

Start by naming serious-sounding studies by authors like Smith, Doe, and Jones - but then quickly devolve. Name some real non-fiction books that would be related to the topic. Then name some real fiction books that sound like they could be related. Then name a couple popular internet memes that are related to one of the topics.

Here is the title and abstract of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
"Clearing the Air: Uncovering the Smoggy Link Between Air Pollution in El Centro, California, and Carjackings in the US"

[[ABSTRACT]]
In this study, we set out to investigate the potential correlation between air pollution levels in El Centro, California, and the incidence of carjackings across the United States. Armed with data from the Environmental Protection Agency and the Bureau of Justice Statistics, we aimed to shine a spotlight on this intriguing relationship and bring it to the forefront, much like a beam of sunlight cutting through the smog.

Our findings revealed a correlation coefficient of 0.8707250 and a p-value of less than 0.01 for the years 1995 to 2021, indicating a strong statistical association between air pollution in El Centro and the occurrence of carjackings. It seems that where there's smog, there's a greater likelihood of someone driving off with someone else's car – or in other words, a "carjacking and releasing of car emissions" phenomenon.

Through our analysis, we unraveled an unexpected connection, leaving us to ponder the question: are car thieves simply trying to make a clean getaway from the polluted air in El Centro? It's a conundrum that certainly won't be brushed aside, much like a thick layer of particulate matter settling on a car windshield. This research not only sheds light on a previously overlooked link but also reminds us of the importance of addressing air quality concerns for the sake of both public health and crime prevention. After all, it's always better to clear the air – both literally and figuratively.

-------

And here is the introduction section that led to this literature review:
[[INTRODUCTION]]
Air pollution is a pervasive environmental issue with far-reaching implications for public health and the economy. As the byproduct of industrial activities, vehicle emissions, and other sources, air pollution poses significant risks to respiratory health and contributes to a host of adverse environmental effects. The very air we breathe might seem innocuous, but its impact can be far-reaching – not unlike a dad joke that takes a moment to really sink in.
El Centro, a city in the Imperial Valley of California, has grappled with its fair share of air quality challenges, with high levels of particulate matter and ozone posing risks to its residents. California, in general, has been the butt of many air pollution-related puns, given its notoriety for smoggy skies and traffic-choked highways. It's almost as if the state itself is in a perpetual "state of smog" – a term that's ripe for a dad joke or two.
One consequence of this air pollution has been the potential impact on crime, specifically the occurrence of carjackings across the United States. The theft of motor vehicles, especially by force, presents serious safety concerns and economic burdens. The idea that car theft could be linked to smog might initially seem like a stretch – but as we delved into the data, it became clear that we were onto something significant, much like a detective discovering a smudged fingerprint on a getaway car.
Our investigation into this curious intersection between air pollution and carjackings aimed to shed light on a potential correlation that had been overlooked in previous research. We sought to unravel the mystery and reveal whether there was indeed a tangible connection, or if we were simply caught in a thematic fog of our own making – a fog that could use a good dad joke to clear things up.
In this paper, we present our findings on the intriguing correlation between air pollution in El Centro, California, and the incidence of carjackings across the United States. We believe that our research not only has the potential to uncover this smoggy link but also to highlight the importance of addressing air quality concerns for the benefit of public health and crime prevention. After all, it's not just about clearing the air – it's about airing out the potential connections that might be hiding in plain sight.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]

ChatGPT:
[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]

To examine the relationship between air pollution in El Centro, California, and carjackings in the United States, we delved into a plethora of scholarly works and relevant literature. Smith and Doe (2015) discuss the impact of air pollution on public health, while Jones (2018) provides an in-depth analysis of crime patterns and trends. These foundational studies paved the way for our investigation into this unexpected correlation, leading us down a path less traveled – much like a thief looking for an unattended car in a crowded parking lot.

In "The Air We Breathe: Understanding Air Pollution and Its Effects," the authors delve into the numerous consequences of air pollution, from respiratory ailments to environmental degradation. Similarly, "Carjackings: A Comprehensive Analysis" by Johnson and Brown offers a comprehensive overview of car theft incidents and their implications. These works form the bedrock of our exploration, setting the stage for a revelation that's as captivating as a car chase scene in a blockbuster movie.

Venturing beyond the realm of strictly academic literature, we turned to non-fiction books addressing environmental and crime-related issues. "Choked: Life and Breath in the Age of Air Pollution" by Beth Gardiner provides a compelling narrative on the global scourge of air pollution, shedding light on its impact on communities far and wide. On the crime front, "Stolen: The True Story of a Heist Gone Wrong" by Abigail Jones presents a gripping account of real-life thefts, offering insights that parallel our own investigative journey.

As the plot thickens, we encounter fiction works that, while not directly related to our research, add a dash of intrigue and humor to the narrative. "The Smog of Suspicion" by Arthur Conan Doyle presents a fog-laden mystery that might inspire a moment of levity as we grapple with our own investigative puzzle. Moreover, "Gone in 60 Seconds" by H.B. Halicki conjures images of fast-paced car pursuits, reminding us that sometimes, the most unexpected connections can emerge from the most unlikely sources.

In a nod to the digital age, we mustn't overlook the memes that have permeated popular culture. The "Hide the Pain Harold" meme, with its wry smile and subtle air of resignation, captures the essence of our initial disbelief at the potential link between smog and carjackings. Moreover, the "Distracted Boyfriend" meme encapsulates the sense of surprise and betrayal akin to uncovering an unexpected correlation – a feeling not unlike stumbling upon a punchline in the midst of a serious conversation.

As we immerse ourselves in a sea of research and cultural references, we remain vigilant in our pursuit of understanding the nuanced relationship between air pollution in El Centro and the occurrence of carjackings. In the next section, we present our own findings – a revelation that's as unexpected as a pun about stolen cars, but one that opens new avenues for addressing both environmental and criminological concerns.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a goofy academic researcher writing an academic paper. You follow the rules, but you throw out convention regularly to make jokes and funny asides.You draft the methodology section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the methodology section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Air pollution in El Centro, California and Carjackings in the US. You can't resist a good dad joke. Add a relevant dad joke related to the content every couple of sentences. Stay serious and dry most of the time, but then occasionally let your wit shine through.

Your research team collected data from all across the internet, but mostly just used information from Environmental Protection Agency and Bureau of Justice Statistics . You used data from 1995 to 2021

Make up the research methods you don't know. Make them a bit goofy and convoluted.

Here is the title, abstract, and introduction of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
"Clearing the Air: Uncovering the Smoggy Link Between Air Pollution in El Centro, California, and Carjackings in the US"

[[ABSTRACT]]
In this study, we set out to investigate the potential correlation between air pollution levels in El Centro, California, and the incidence of carjackings across the United States. Armed with data from the Environmental Protection Agency and the Bureau of Justice Statistics, we aimed to shine a spotlight on this intriguing relationship and bring it to the forefront, much like a beam of sunlight cutting through the smog.

Our findings revealed a correlation coefficient of 0.8707250 and a p-value of less than 0.01 for the years 1995 to 2021, indicating a strong statistical association between air pollution in El Centro and the occurrence of carjackings. It seems that where there's smog, there's a greater likelihood of someone driving off with someone else's car – or in other words, a "carjacking and releasing of car emissions" phenomenon.

Through our analysis, we unraveled an unexpected connection, leaving us to ponder the question: are car thieves simply trying to make a clean getaway from the polluted air in El Centro? It's a conundrum that certainly won't be brushed aside, much like a thick layer of particulate matter settling on a car windshield. This research not only sheds light on a previously overlooked link but also reminds us of the importance of addressing air quality concerns for the sake of both public health and crime prevention. After all, it's always better to clear the air – both literally and figuratively.

[[INTRODUCTION]]
Air pollution is a pervasive environmental issue with far-reaching implications for public health and the economy. As the byproduct of industrial activities, vehicle emissions, and other sources, air pollution poses significant risks to respiratory health and contributes to a host of adverse environmental effects. The very air we breathe might seem innocuous, but its impact can be far-reaching – not unlike a dad joke that takes a moment to really sink in.
El Centro, a city in the Imperial Valley of California, has grappled with its fair share of air quality challenges, with high levels of particulate matter and ozone posing risks to its residents. California, in general, has been the butt of many air pollution-related puns, given its notoriety for smoggy skies and traffic-choked highways. It's almost as if the state itself is in a perpetual "state of smog" – a term that's ripe for a dad joke or two.
One consequence of this air pollution has been the potential impact on crime, specifically the occurrence of carjackings across the United States. The theft of motor vehicles, especially by force, presents serious safety concerns and economic burdens. The idea that car theft could be linked to smog might initially seem like a stretch – but as we delved into the data, it became clear that we were onto something significant, much like a detective discovering a smudged fingerprint on a getaway car.
Our investigation into this curious intersection between air pollution and carjackings aimed to shed light on a potential correlation that had been overlooked in previous research. We sought to unravel the mystery and reveal whether there was indeed a tangible connection, or if we were simply caught in a thematic fog of our own making – a fog that could use a good dad joke to clear things up.
In this paper, we present our findings on the intriguing correlation between air pollution in El Centro, California, and the incidence of carjackings across the United States. We believe that our research not only has the potential to uncover this smoggy link but also to highlight the importance of addressing air quality concerns for the benefit of public health and crime prevention. After all, it's not just about clearing the air – it's about airing out the potential connections that might be hiding in plain sight.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[METHODOLOGY]]

ChatGPT:

[[METHODOLOGY]]

To investigate the potential correlation between air pollution levels in El Centro, California, and the incidence of carjackings across the United States, we embarked on a research journey that involved both meticulous data gathering and rigorous statistical analysis. Our methodology can be likened to a finely tuned engine – it required precision, careful calibration, and the occasional oil change.

Data Collection:
We gathered air pollution measurements from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), drawing on information related to ambient air quality, including levels of particulate matter (PM10 and PM2.5) and ground-level ozone. This data collection process involved sifting through myriad reports and datasets, not unlike a scavenger hunt for environmental indicators – though with less running and more spreadsheet organization.

As for the incidence of carjackings, we turned to the Bureau of Justice Statistics for comprehensive national data. This involved scrutinizing crime reports, victimization surveys, and law enforcement records to identify instances of car theft involving the use of force or threat of force. It was akin to sleuthing through a digital jungle of crime data, with the occasional "eureka moment" akin to solving a dad joke riddle – unexpected and gratifying.

Cross-Referencing and Analysis:
With data in hand, we conducted a series of cross-referencing exercises, comparing air pollution levels in El Centro, California, with carjacking incidents reported across different regions of the United States. This process required a keen eye for detail and an analytical mindset, much like a detective piecing together clues at a crime scene – except in this case, the evidence was buried in rows and columns of numerical values.

Statistical Analysis:
To measure the strength of the relationship between air pollution in El Centro and the occurrence of carjackings, we employed correlation analysis and regression modeling. This allowed us to quantify the degree of association between environmental factors and crime patterns while controlling for potential confounding variables. It was a bit like trying to determine if the proverbial chicken or the egg came first – only with statistical formulas, not poultry.

Our statistical methods culminated in the calculation of a correlation coefficient and its associated p-value, enabling us to assess the significance of the relationship between air pollution and carjackings. These calculations unraveled patterns and trends that might have otherwise remained hidden, not unlike pulling a clever prank that has everyone laughing once the punchline is revealed.

Accounting for Temporal Dynamics:
Given the longitudinal nature of our analysis, we accounted for temporal dynamics by examining air pollution and carjacking data spanning from 1995 to 2021. This allowed us to capture potential shifts in the association over time and assess the robustness of the observed correlation. It was like watching a long-running sitcom and tracking the recurring themes – except instead of sitcom episodes, we had years of empirical data to analyze.

Ethical Considerations:
Throughout our research, we upheld strict ethical standards, ensuring the confidentiality and proper usage of the data obtained from reputable sources. Our commitment to ethical conduct was unwavering, much like a dad's dedication to delivering a well-timed, cringe-worthy pun – it might make you groan, but it's all in good humor.

Overall, our methodology entailed a blend of analytical rigor, data navigation, and occasional levity in the form of a well-placed dad joke. The pursuit of uncovering this smoggy link demanded both scholarly approach and a touch of whimsy – a combination that we believe has enriched the research process and, dare we say, kept it as fresh as a breeze on a hazy day.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a goofy academic researcher writing an academic paper. You follow the rules, but you throw out convention regularly to make jokes and funny asides.You draft the discussion section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the discussion section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Air pollution in El Centro, California and Carjackings in the US. You can't resist a good dad joke. Add a relevant dad joke related to the content every couple of sentences. Stay serious and dry most of the time, but then occasionally let your wit shine through.

Limit your response to 500 tokens.

Here are the title, abstract, literature review, and results sections. Please harken back to 1-2 of the goofy items in the literature review, but pretend to take them completely seriously. Discuss how your results supported the prior research.

Do not write a conclusion. I will add a conclusion after this.

[[TITLE]]
"Clearing the Air: Uncovering the Smoggy Link Between Air Pollution in El Centro, California, and Carjackings in the US"

[[ABSTRACT]]
In this study, we set out to investigate the potential correlation between air pollution levels in El Centro, California, and the incidence of carjackings across the United States. Armed with data from the Environmental Protection Agency and the Bureau of Justice Statistics, we aimed to shine a spotlight on this intriguing relationship and bring it to the forefront, much like a beam of sunlight cutting through the smog.

Our findings revealed a correlation coefficient of 0.8707250 and a p-value of less than 0.01 for the years 1995 to 2021, indicating a strong statistical association between air pollution in El Centro and the occurrence of carjackings. It seems that where there's smog, there's a greater likelihood of someone driving off with someone else's car – or in other words, a "carjacking and releasing of car emissions" phenomenon.

Through our analysis, we unraveled an unexpected connection, leaving us to ponder the question: are car thieves simply trying to make a clean getaway from the polluted air in El Centro? It's a conundrum that certainly won't be brushed aside, much like a thick layer of particulate matter settling on a car windshield. This research not only sheds light on a previously overlooked link but also reminds us of the importance of addressing air quality concerns for the sake of both public health and crime prevention. After all, it's always better to clear the air – both literally and figuratively.

[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]
To examine the relationship between air pollution in El Centro, California, and carjackings in the United States, we delved into a plethora of scholarly works and relevant literature. Smith and Doe (2015) discuss the impact of air pollution on public health, while Jones (2018) provides an in-depth analysis of crime patterns and trends. These foundational studies paved the way for our investigation into this unexpected correlation, leading us down a path less traveled – much like a thief looking for an unattended car in a crowded parking lot.
In "The Air We Breathe: Understanding Air Pollution and Its Effects," the authors delve into the numerous consequences of air pollution, from respiratory ailments to environmental degradation. Similarly, "Carjackings: A Comprehensive Analysis" by Johnson and Brown offers a comprehensive overview of car theft incidents and their implications. These works form the bedrock of our exploration, setting the stage for a revelation that's as captivating as a car chase scene in a blockbuster movie.
Venturing beyond the realm of strictly academic literature, we turned to non-fiction books addressing environmental and crime-related issues. "Choked: Life and Breath in the Age of Air Pollution" by Beth Gardiner provides a compelling narrative on the global scourge of air pollution, shedding light on its impact on communities far and wide. On the crime front, "Stolen: The True Story of a Heist Gone Wrong" by Abigail Jones presents a gripping account of real-life thefts, offering insights that parallel our own investigative journey.
As the plot thickens, we encounter fiction works that, while not directly related to our research, add a dash of intrigue and humor to the narrative. "The Smog of Suspicion" by Arthur Conan Doyle presents a fog-laden mystery that might inspire a moment of levity as we grapple with our own investigative puzzle. Moreover, "Gone in 60 Seconds" by H.B. Halicki conjures images of fast-paced car pursuits, reminding us that sometimes, the most unexpected connections can emerge from the most unlikely sources.
In a nod to the digital age, we mustn't overlook the memes that have permeated popular culture. The "Hide the Pain Harold" meme, with its wry smile and subtle air of resignation, captures the essence of our initial disbelief at the potential link between smog and carjackings. Moreover, the "Distracted Boyfriend" meme encapsulates the sense of surprise and betrayal akin to uncovering an unexpected correlation – a feeling not unlike stumbling upon a punchline in the midst of a serious conversation.
As we immerse ourselves in a sea of research and cultural references, we remain vigilant in our pursuit of understanding the nuanced relationship between air pollution in El Centro and the occurrence of carjackings. In the next section, we present our own findings – a revelation that's as unexpected as a pun about stolen cars, but one that opens new avenues for addressing both environmental and criminological concerns.

[[RESULTS]]
The statistical analysis of the relationship between air pollution levels in El Centro, California, and the incidence of carjackings across the United States from 1995 to 2021 revealed a robust correlation coefficient of 0.8707250. This correlation coefficient suggests a strong positive association between the two variables. It’s almost like the air pollution and carjackings are holding hands, skipping merrily down the statistical pathway. Speaking of merriment, why don't air molecules like parties? Because they take things too literally and never take a moment to unwind and socialize!
Furthermore, the calculated r-squared value of 0.7581620 indicated that approximately 75.82% of the variability in carjackings can be explained by the variability in air pollution levels in El Centro, California. The remaining 24.18% of variability might just be the unpredictability of human behavior – after all, we can't blame everything on the smog. But it's clear that much of the variability can indeed be attributed to air pollution levels. It's like trying to find your car keys in a room filled with smoke – most of the time, the keys are right there, but sometimes they're hiding in the cushion of the couch. Oh, the irony!
The p-value of less than 0.01 indicates a high level of statistical significance, suggesting that the observed association between air pollution in El Centro and carjackings in the US is unlikely to be due to random chance. It's as unlikely as finding a parking spot right in front of your destination in a congested city – statistically significant events in both cases!
In Figure 1, the scatterplot visually illustrates the strong, positive correlation between air pollution levels in El Centro, California, and carjackings across the United States. The data points are as tightly clustered as a group of commuters stuck in rush hour traffic. It seems that where there's more pollution, there's also more of a "drive" to commit car theft. This connection is clearer than the air on a smog-free day!
Our findings not only illuminate the statistical relationship between air pollution in El Centro and carjackings but also raise intriguing questions about the potential mechanisms underlying this association. It's almost like a mystery novel – every page turn uncovers another clue, leading us ever closer to solving the puzzle. And speaking of puzzles, how do you know when a joke is a dad joke? When it becomes apparent.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[DISCUSSION]]

ChatGPT:

[[DISCUSSION]]

Our study sought to unravel the enigmatic relationship between air pollution in El Centro, California, and the incidence of carjackings across the United States. The striking correlation coefficient of 0.8707250 and the p-value of less than 0.01 underscore the substantial statistical association between these seemingly disparate phenomena. It's almost as if the polluted air is fueling both environmental concerns and illicit activities, creating a conundrum that's as perplexing as trying to locate a hybrid car in a fog bank.

Our findings align with prior research that has emphasized the pervasive impact of air pollution on public health and environmental well-being. In particular, Smith and Doe's (2015) examination of air pollution's far-reaching consequences appears to have laid the groundwork for our investigation, much like a sturdy foundation supports a towering structure. Similarly, the comprehensive analysis of car theft incidents by Johnson and Brown (2018) provided a crucial backdrop for our exploration, akin to the backdrop of a bustling city street where carjackings might occur. The unexpected correlation we uncovered echoes the surprising twists in "The Smog of Suspicion" by Arthur Conan Doyle, proving that sometimes, reality can be as intriguing as fiction.

The robust r-squared value of 0.7581620 indicates that a considerable portion of the variability in carjackings can be attributed to the variability in air pollution levels in El Centro. This statistical relationship is as clear as the need for windshield wipers during a smoggy day – you just can't ignore it. Moreover, the p-value's confirmation of the observed association's statistical significance reaffirms that this link is as tangible as the emissions emanating from a congested freeway. It's undeniable: the evidence supports a connection as solid as a well-locked car door – or at least we thought it was until now.

This unexpected correlation prompts us to contemplate the potential mechanisms through which air pollution in El Centro may influence the occurrence of carjackings across the US. Could it be that the hazy conditions in El Centro create an atmosphere conducive to criminal activities, much like a stealthy thief taking advantage of reduced visibility? It's a thought-provoking puzzle that's as perplexing as trying to unlock a car door without the keys, even though they're right in your pocket. Our study offers a tantalizing glimpse into an intricate web of factors that may be linking these disparate elements.

In conclusion, the confluence of air pollution in El Centro, California, and the incidence of carjackings across the United States is a compelling area for further investigation. Beyond the statistical findings, this unexpected correlation serves as a poignant reminder of the intricate interplay between environmental and criminological phenomena. The implications of our study extend far and wide, provoking questions that are as profound as they are unexpected. After all, who would have thought that a breath of fresh air could be so closely associated with grand theft auto? It's a mystery that's as surprising as discovering that your stolen car has been replaced… with a cardboard replica!

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a goofy academic researcher writing an academic paper. You follow the rules, but you throw out convention regularly to make jokes and funny asides.You draft the discussion section of goofy academic research papers that sounds like it belongs based on the title and abstract provided.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up a short conclusion of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Air pollution in El Centro, California and Carjackings in the US. You can't resist a good dad joke. Add a relevant dad joke related to the content every couple of sentences. Stay serious and dry most of the time, but then occasionally let your wit shine through.

Limit your response to 300 tokens. At the very end, assert that no more research is needed in this area.

Here are the title, abstract, introduction, and results sections.
[[TITLE]]
"Clearing the Air: Uncovering the Smoggy Link Between Air Pollution in El Centro, California, and Carjackings in the US"

[[ABSTRACT]]
In this study, we set out to investigate the potential correlation between air pollution levels in El Centro, California, and the incidence of carjackings across the United States. Armed with data from the Environmental Protection Agency and the Bureau of Justice Statistics, we aimed to shine a spotlight on this intriguing relationship and bring it to the forefront, much like a beam of sunlight cutting through the smog.

Our findings revealed a correlation coefficient of 0.8707250 and a p-value of less than 0.01 for the years 1995 to 2021, indicating a strong statistical association between air pollution in El Centro and the occurrence of carjackings. It seems that where there's smog, there's a greater likelihood of someone driving off with someone else's car – or in other words, a "carjacking and releasing of car emissions" phenomenon.

Through our analysis, we unraveled an unexpected connection, leaving us to ponder the question: are car thieves simply trying to make a clean getaway from the polluted air in El Centro? It's a conundrum that certainly won't be brushed aside, much like a thick layer of particulate matter settling on a car windshield. This research not only sheds light on a previously overlooked link but also reminds us of the importance of addressing air quality concerns for the sake of both public health and crime prevention. After all, it's always better to clear the air – both literally and figuratively.

[[INTRDUCTION]]
Air pollution is a pervasive environmental issue with far-reaching implications for public health and the economy. As the byproduct of industrial activities, vehicle emissions, and other sources, air pollution poses significant risks to respiratory health and contributes to a host of adverse environmental effects. The very air we breathe might seem innocuous, but its impact can be far-reaching – not unlike a dad joke that takes a moment to really sink in.
El Centro, a city in the Imperial Valley of California, has grappled with its fair share of air quality challenges, with high levels of particulate matter and ozone posing risks to its residents. California, in general, has been the butt of many air pollution-related puns, given its notoriety for smoggy skies and traffic-choked highways. It's almost as if the state itself is in a perpetual "state of smog" – a term that's ripe for a dad joke or two.
One consequence of this air pollution has been the potential impact on crime, specifically the occurrence of carjackings across the United States. The theft of motor vehicles, especially by force, presents serious safety concerns and economic burdens. The idea that car theft could be linked to smog might initially seem like a stretch – but as we delved into the data, it became clear that we were onto something significant, much like a detective discovering a smudged fingerprint on a getaway car.
Our investigation into this curious intersection between air pollution and carjackings aimed to shed light on a potential correlation that had been overlooked in previous research. We sought to unravel the mystery and reveal whether there was indeed a tangible connection, or if we were simply caught in a thematic fog of our own making – a fog that could use a good dad joke to clear things up.
In this paper, we present our findings on the intriguing correlation between air pollution in El Centro, California, and the incidence of carjackings across the United States. We believe that our research not only has the potential to uncover this smoggy link but also to highlight the importance of addressing air quality concerns for the benefit of public health and crime prevention. After all, it's not just about clearing the air – it's about airing out the potential connections that might be hiding in plain sight.

[[RESULTS]]
The statistical analysis of the relationship between air pollution levels in El Centro, California, and the incidence of carjackings across the United States from 1995 to 2021 revealed a robust correlation coefficient of 0.8707250. This correlation coefficient suggests a strong positive association between the two variables. It’s almost like the air pollution and carjackings are holding hands, skipping merrily down the statistical pathway. Speaking of merriment, why don't air molecules like parties? Because they take things too literally and never take a moment to unwind and socialize!
Furthermore, the calculated r-squared value of 0.7581620 indicated that approximately 75.82% of the variability in carjackings can be explained by the variability in air pollution levels in El Centro, California. The remaining 24.18% of variability might just be the unpredictability of human behavior – after all, we can't blame everything on the smog. But it's clear that much of the variability can indeed be attributed to air pollution levels. It's like trying to find your car keys in a room filled with smoke – most of the time, the keys are right there, but sometimes they're hiding in the cushion of the couch. Oh, the irony!
The p-value of less than 0.01 indicates a high level of statistical significance, suggesting that the observed association between air pollution in El Centro and carjackings in the US is unlikely to be due to random chance. It's as unlikely as finding a parking spot right in front of your destination in a congested city – statistically significant events in both cases!
In Figure 1, the scatterplot visually illustrates the strong, positive correlation between air pollution levels in El Centro, California, and carjackings across the United States. The data points are as tightly clustered as a group of commuters stuck in rush hour traffic. It seems that where there's more pollution, there's also more of a "drive" to commit car theft. This connection is clearer than the air on a smog-free day!
Our findings not only illuminate the statistical relationship between air pollution in El Centro and carjackings but also raise intriguing questions about the potential mechanisms underlying this association. It's almost like a mystery novel – every page turn uncovers another clue, leading us ever closer to solving the puzzle. And speaking of puzzles, how do you know when a joke is a dad joke? When it becomes apparent.

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Your response should start like this:

[[CONCLUSION]]

ChatGPT:

[[CONCLUSION]]

In conclusion, our study has unraveled a compelling correlation between air pollution levels in El Centro, California, and the incidence of carjackings across the United States. The robust correlation coefficient and statistically significant p-value underscore the strength of this association, leaving us to muse on the potential driving forces behind this unexpected link. This connection between air pollution and car theft is as striking as a bolt of lightning on a stormy day – it's an electrifying find that certainly won't be left idling.

Our findings suggest that addressing air quality concerns in locales such as El Centro may not only have far-reaching implications for public health but also potential crime prevention benefits. It's a reminder that cleaning up the air might also help in cleaning up crime – a dual impact that's nothing to sneeze at. After all, a good joke and a breath of fresh air can both leave you feeling invigorated!

At the same time, we recognize that correlation does not imply causation. While our results point to a strong statistical association, further research is needed to elucidate the underlying mechanisms linking air pollution and carjackings. It's like trying to find your way through the smog without a clear set of directions – there are still some twists and turns to navigate. But at least we've made some significant headway in understanding this hazy relationship.

Therefore, in the spirit of academic inquiry and a good chuckle, we assert that no more research is needed in this area. Just kidding – there's always more to explore, but for now, let's revel in the enlightening (and at times, amusing) revelations our study has brought to light. It's not every day that we get to witness the intersection of environment and crime in such a compelling manner. And in the end, isn't that what makes research worthwhile – uncovering unexpected connections and having a little fun along the way?

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide fictional names of academic journals. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide the name of a funny but plausible sounding research, scientific, or academic journal that would publish a paper entited Clearing the Air: Uncovering the Smoggy Link Between Air Pollution in El Centro, California, and Carjackings in the US. Respond only with the name of a fictional academic journal.

ChatGPT:

The Journal of Environmental Criminology and Atmospheric Science

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide fictional names of nonprofit research organizations and associations. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide the name of a funny but plausible sounding nonprofit, academic, or scientific association or organization that would sponsor research that resulted in a paper entited Clearing the Air: Uncovering the Smoggy Link Between Air Pollution in El Centro, California, and Carjackings in the US. Respond only with the name of a fictional organization.

ChatGPT:

The Center for Environmental Health and Social Criminology

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide potential search keywords separated by commas. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide potential search keywords for a paper titled Clearing the Air: Uncovering the Smoggy Link Between Air Pollution in El Centro, California, and Carjackings in the US with an abstract of In this study, we set out to investigate the potential correlation between air pollution levels in El Centro, California, and the incidence of carjackings across the United States. Armed with data from the Environmental Protection Agency and the Bureau of Justice Statistics, we aimed to shine a spotlight on this intriguing relationship and bring it to the forefront, much like a beam of sunlight cutting through the smog.
Our findings revealed a correlation coefficient of 0.8707250 and a p-value of less than 0.01 for the years 1995 to 2021, indicating a strong statistical association between air pollution in El Centro and the occurrence of carjackings. It seems that where there's smog, there's a greater likelihood of someone driving off with someone else's car – or in other words, a "carjacking and releasing of car emissions" phenomenon.
Through our analysis, we unraveled an unexpected connection, leaving us to ponder the question: are car thieves simply trying to make a clean getaway from the polluted air in El Centro? It's a conundrum that certainly won't be brushed aside, much like a thick layer of particulate matter settling on a car windshield. This research not only sheds light on a previously overlooked link but also reminds us of the importance of addressing air quality concerns for the sake of both public health and crime prevention. After all, it's always better to clear the air – both literally and figuratively.

ChatGPT:

El Centro California, air pollution, carjacking, correlation, environmental protection agency, bureau of justice statistics, statistical association, correlation coefficient, p-value, crime prevention, public health, pollution and crime, clean getaway, particulate matter, addressing air quality concerns

*There is a bunch of Python happening behind the scenes to turn this prompt sequence into a PDF.

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Data details

Air pollution in El Centro, California
Detailed data title: Percentage of days with air quality at 'unhealthy for sensitive groups' or worse in El Centro, CA
Source: Environmental Protection Agency
See what else correlates with Air pollution in El Centro, California

Carjackings in the US
Detailed data title: Rate of nonfatal carjacking victimization per 1,000 persons age 16 or older (3-year moving averages)
Source: Bureau of Justice Statistics
See what else correlates with Carjackings in the US

Correlation r = 0.8707250 (Pearson correlation coefficient)
Correlation is a measure of how much the variables move together. If it is 0.99, when one goes up the other goes up. If it is 0.02, the connection is very weak or non-existent. If it is -0.99, then when one goes up the other goes down. If it is 1.00, you probably messed up your correlation function.

r² = 0.7581620 (Coefficient of determination)
This means 75.8% of the change in the one variable (i.e., Carjackings in the US) is predictable based on the change in the other (i.e., Air pollution in El Centro, California) over the 27 years from 1995 through 2021.

p < 0.01, which is statistically significant(Null hypothesis significance test)
The p-value is 3.5E-9.^Show 0.0000000035302583406257206000
The p-value is a measure of how probable it is that we would randomly find a result this extreme.^Note More specifically the p-value is a measure of how probable it is that we would randomly find a result this extreme if we had only tested one pair of variables one time.

But I am a p-villain. I absolutely did not test only one pair of variables one time. I correlated hundreds of millions of pairs of variables. I threw boatloads of data into an industrial-sized blender to find this correlation.

Who is going to stop me? p-value reporting doesn't require me to report how many calculations I had to go through in order to find a low p-value!
On average, you will find a correaltion as strong as 0.87 in 3.5E-7% of random cases. Said differently, if you correlated 283,265,388 random variables^Note You don't actually need 283 million variables to find a correlation like this one. I don't have that many variables in my database. You can also correlate variables that are not independent. I do this a lot.

p-value calculations are useful for understanding the probability of a result happening by chance. They are most useful when used to highlight the risk of a fluke outcome. For example, if you calculate a p-value of 0.30, the risk that the result is a fluke is high. It is good to know that! But there are lots of ways to get a p-value of less than 0.01, as evidenced by this project.

In this particular case, the values are so extreme as to be meaningless. That's why no one reports p-values with specificity after they drop below 0.01.

Just to be clear: I'm being completely transparent about the calculations. There is no math trickery. This is just how statistics shakes out when you calculate hundreds of millions of random correlations.
with the same 26 degrees of freedom, ^Note Degrees of freedom is a measure of how many free components we are testing. In this case it is 26 because we have two variables measured over a period of 27 years. It's just the number of years minus ( the number of variables minus one ), which in this case simplifies to the number of years minus one.
you would randomly expect to find a correlation as strong as this one.

[ 0.73, 0.94 ] 95% correlation confidence interval (using the Fisher z-transformation)
^{Read more about the confidence interval} The confidence interval is an estimate the range of the value of the correlation coefficient, using the correlation itself as an input. The values are meant to be the low and high end of the correlation coefficient with 95% confidence.

This one is a bit more complciated than the other calculations, but I include it because many people have been pushing for confidence intervals instead of p-value calculations (for example: NEJM. However, if you are dredging data, you can reliably find yourself in the 5%. That's my goal!

All values for the years included above: ^Note If I were being very sneaky, I could trim years from the beginning or end of the datasets to increase the correlation on some pairs of variables. I don't do that because there are already plenty of correlations in my database without monkeying with the years.

Still, sometimes one of the variables has more years of data available than the other. This page only shows the overlapping years. To see all the years, click on "See what else correlates with..." link above.

	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
Air pollution in El Centro, California (Bad air quality days)	32.6027	28.9617	41.6438	27.1233	29.589	14.4809	19.4521	18.3562	17.5342	12.5683	18.9041	17.2603	15.0685	9.01639	14.2466	13.9726	9.0411	10.6557	10.6849	14.7945	11.5068	12.2951	11.5068	13.6986	5.75342	7.65027	7.94521
Carjackings in the US (Carjackings)	0.53	0.48	0.4	0.3	0.35	0.31	0.31	0.19	0.23	0.19	0.22	0.185	0.185	0.185	0.15	0.13	0.09	0.09	0.12	0.15	0.14	0.11	0.09	0.1	0.1	0.1	0.12

Why this works

Data dredging: I have 25,153 variables in my database. I compare all these variables against each other to find ones that randomly match up. That's 632,673,409 correlation calculations! This is called “data dredging.” Instead of starting with a hypothesis and testing it, I instead abused the data to see what correlations shake out. It’s a dangerous way to go about analysis, because any sufficiently large dataset will yield strong correlations completely at random.
Lack of causal connection: There is probably^Note Because these pages are automatically generated, it's possible that the two variables you are viewing are in fact causually related. I take steps to prevent the obvious ones from showing on the site (I don't let data about the weather in one city correlate with the weather in a neighboring city, for example), but sometimes they still pop up. If they are related, cool! You found a loophole.
no direct connection between these variables, despite what the AI says above. This is exacerbated by the fact that I used "Years" as the base variable. Lots of things happen in a year that are not related to each other! Most studies would use something like "one person" in stead of "one year" to be the "thing" studied.
Observations not independent: For many variables, sequential years are not independent of each other. If a population of people is continuously doing something every day, there is no reason to think they would suddenly change how they are doing that thing on January 1. A simple^Note Personally I don't find any p-value calculation to be 'simple,' but you know what I mean.
p-value calculation does not take this into account, so mathematically it appears less probable than it really is.

Try it yourself

You can calculate the values on this page on your own! Try running the Python code to see the calculation results. ^{Show the steps to do this.} Step 1: Download and install Python on your computer.

Step 2: Open a plaintext editor like Notepad and paste the code below into it.

Step 3: Save the file as "calculate_correlation.py" in a place you will remember, like your desktop. Copy the file location to your clipboard. On Windows, you can right-click the file and click "Properties," and then copy what comes after "Location:" As an example, on my computer the location is "C:\Users\tyler\Desktop"

Step 4: Open a command line window. For example, by pressing start and typing "cmd" and them pressing enter.

Step 5: Install the required modules by typing "pip install numpy", then pressing enter, then typing "pip install scipy", then pressing enter.

Step 6: Navigate to the location where you saved the Python file by using the "cd" command. For example, I would type "cd C:\Users\tyler\Desktop" and push enter.

Step 7: Run the Python script by typing "python calculate_correlation.py"

If you run into any issues, I suggest asking ChatGPT to walk you through installing Python and running the code below on your system. Try this question:

"Walk me through installing Python on my computer to run a script that uses scipy and numpy. Go step-by-step and ask me to confirm before moving on. Start by asking me questions about my operating system so that you know how to proceed. Assume I want the simplest installation with the latest version of Python and that I do not currently have any of the necessary elements installed. Remember to only give me one step per response and confirm I have done it before proceeding."

# These modules make it easier to perform the calculation
import numpy as np
from scipy import stats

# We'll define a function that we can call to return the correlation calculations
def calculate_correlation(array1, array2):

    # Calculate Pearson correlation coefficient and p-value
    correlation, p_value = stats.pearsonr(array1, array2)

    # Calculate R-squared as the square of the correlation coefficient
    r_squared = correlation**2

    return correlation, r_squared, p_value

# These are the arrays for the variables shown on this page, but you can modify them to be any two sets of numbers
array_1 = np.array([32.6027,28.9617,41.6438,27.1233,29.589,14.4809,19.4521,18.3562,17.5342,12.5683,18.9041,17.2603,15.0685,9.01639,14.2466,13.9726,9.0411,10.6557,10.6849,14.7945,11.5068,12.2951,11.5068,13.6986,5.75342,7.65027,7.94521,])
array_2 = np.array([0.53,0.48,0.4,0.3,0.35,0.31,0.31,0.19,0.23,0.19,0.22,0.185,0.185,0.185,0.15,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.15,0.14,0.11,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,])
array_1_name = "Air pollution in El Centro, California"
array_2_name = "Carjackings in the US"

# Perform the calculation
print(f"Calculating the correlation between {array_1_name} and {array_2_name}...")
correlation, r_squared, p_value = calculate_correlation(array_1, array_2)

# Print the results
print("Correlation Coefficient:", correlation)
print("R-squared:", r_squared)
print("P-value:", p_value)

Reuseable content

You may re-use the images on this page for any purpose, even commercial purposes, without asking for permission. The only requirement is that you attribute Tyler Vigen. ^Note Attribution can take many different forms. If you leave the "tylervigen.com" link in the image, that satisfies it just fine. If you remove it and move it to a footnote, that's fine too. You can also just write "Charts courtesy of Tyler Vigen" at the bottom of an article.

You do not need to attribute "the spurious correlations website," and you don't even need to link here if you don't want to. I don't gain anything from pageviews. There are no ads on this site, there is nothing for sale, and I am not for hire.

For the record, I am just one person. Tyler Vigen, he/him/his. I do have degrees, but they should not go after my name unless you want to annoy my wife. If that is your goal, then go ahead and cite me as "Tyler Vigen, A.A. A.A.S. B.A. J.D." Otherwise it is just "Tyler Vigen."

When spoken, my last name is pronounced "vegan," like I don't eat meat.

Full license details.
For more on re-use permissions, or to get a signed release form, see tylervigen.com/permission.

Download images for these variables:

High resolution line chart ^Note The image linked here is a Scalable Vector Graphic (SVG). It is the highest resolution that is possible to achieve. It scales up beyond the size of the observable universe without pixelating. You do not need to email me asking if I have a higher resolution image. I do not. The physical limitations of our universe prevent me from providing you with an image that is any higher resolution than this one.

If you insert it into a PowerPoint presentation (a tool well-known for managing things that are the scale of the universe), you can right-click > "Ungroup" or "Create Shape" and then edit the lines and text directly. You can also change the colors this way.

Alternatively you can use a tool like Inkscape.
High resolution line chart, optimized for mobile
Alternative high resolution line chart
Scatterplot
Portable line chart (png)
Portable line chart (png), optimized for mobile
Line chart for only Air pollution in El Centro, California
Line chart for only Carjackings in the US
AI-generated correlation image
The spurious research paper: Clearing the Air: Uncovering the Smoggy Link Between Air Pollution in El Centro, California, and Carjackings in the US

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Correlation ID: 4094 · Black Variable ID: 20581 · Red Variable ID: 1200


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