Spurious correlation #3,636 · View random
A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is Air pollution in Syracuse, New York and the second variable is Arson in United States. The chart goes from 1985 to 2022, and the two variables track closely in value over that time.

A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is Air pollution in Syracuse, New York and the second variable is Arson in United States. The chart goes from 1985 to 2022, and the two variables track closely in value over that time.

Download png, svg

AI explanation

As the smog lifted in Syracuse, so did the urge to commit arson. It turns out, cleaner air led to cleaner consciences, and people were no longer fired up to commit such hot crimes. With less pollution clouding their judgment, the spark of arson activity across the nation just couldn't find the right kindling to ignite. It's a breath of fresh air for law enforcement, who can now say they've truly extinguished the problem at its source.

^{Show image generation prompt} Model: dalle-3
Prompt: Generating prompt... Title: "Clear Sky in Syracuse" Description: An overhead view of the city of Syracuse, New York, with a focus on the skyline and streets. The buildings are depicted using bold, sweeping strokes of charcoal, capturing the grandeur of the cityscape. Clear, clean lines distinguish the buildings against the backdrop of a now pristine sky. The streets below show people walking, enjoying the fresh air and engaging in various activities, illustrating the newfound freedom from pollution. A sense of tranquility and relief permeates the scene, accentuated by the gentle movement of the breeze symbolized by dynamic, flowing lines. In the distance, a faint silhouette of a firefighter or firefighting equipment adds a subtle nod to the reduction in arson incidents, without directly portraying any fiery imagery. The depiction should include only scenes, people, and objects, it should not include text or speech bubbles.

This image generation prompt was also generated by AI, using the following sequence:

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You select one of a few potential scene descriptors that seems to go along with the variables described. You respond only with the scene descriptions provided and say nothing else.
User prompt: Here are two variables: Air pollution in Syracuse, New York and Arson in United States. Given these, which of the following image style descriptions seems most appropriate? Pick the one that seems to be related to one of the variables at hand. Please respond with only one of the following potential descriptions: High-tech a Polaroid photo Cutsy graphics Charcoal Woodblock painting
ChatGPT: Charcoal

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You describe simple visual scenes that depict the two variables stated. You combine both variables into one scene.
User prompt: Please describe a visual scene that prominently depicts both Air pollution in Syracuse, New York and Arson in United States, in the following situation: Because as air pollution in Syracuse decreased, the arsonists found it harder to "fire up" their criminal activities. With cleaner air, the arsonists couldn't "ignite" their passion for setting things ablaze, leading to a decrease in fire-related crime nationwide. It seems that when the air is clearer, the fire is much harder to find for those with a "burning" desire to commit arson!. Keep the description simple.
ChatGPT: In Syracuse, New York, the once hazy skyline is now clear, with a fresh breeze blowing through the city. On the streets, people are enjoying the clean air, taking deep breaths without any hint of pollution. Meanwhile, across the United States, firefighters are noticing a significant drop in the number of arson-related incidents. The lack of smog and pollutants in the air seems to have dampened the motivation of arsonists, as their fiery desires are finding it difficult to ignite without the cover of polluted air.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You write and improve image generation prompts for DALLE-3. You maintain the same subjects, but enhance the visuals.
User prompt: Please respond with an image generation prompt that would be likely to create an interesting visual using DALLE-3, using the following style: [ Charcoal ] and depicting this scene: In Syracuse, New York, the once hazy skyline is now clear, with a fresh breeze blowing through the city. On the streets, people are enjoying the clean air, taking deep breaths without any hint of pollution. Meanwhile, across the United States, firefighters are noticing a significant drop in the number of arson-related incidents. The lack of smog and pollutants in the air seems to have dampened the motivation of arsonists, as their fiery desires are finding it difficult to ignite without the cover of polluted air. Keep the visual depiction simple. Do not include any words or speech bubbles.
ChatGPT: Generating prompt... Title: "Clear Sky in Syracuse" Description: An overhead view of the city of Syracuse, New York, with a focus on the skyline and streets. The buildings are depicted using bold, sweeping strokes of charcoal, capturing the grandeur of the cityscape. Clear, clean lines distinguish the buildings against the backdrop of a now pristine sky. The streets below show people walking, enjoying the fresh air and engaging in various activities, illustrating the newfound freedom from pollution. A sense of tranquility and relief permeates the scene, accentuated by the gentle movement of the breeze symbolized by dynamic, flowing lines. In the distance, a faint silhouette of a firefighter or firefighting equipment adds a subtle nod to the reduction in arson incidents, without directly portraying any fiery imagery.

*Variations in the User Prompts from chart to chart are just the result of random number generation in Python. I wrote a few arrays of various styles and methods to ask questions to change up the results. Every time this site writes an explanation or generates an image, the script picks from each at random.

I sequence the requests into multiple prompts because I find GPT 3.5 to perform much better with short, well-managed contexts. Thus, I track the context directly in Python and only ask ChatGPT targeted questions.
^{Show prompt for explanation} Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106 (fine-tuned)
System prompt: You provide humorous responses in the form of plausible sounding explanations for correlations. You assume the correlation is causative for the purpose of the explanation even if it is ridiculous. You do not chat with the user, you only reply with the causal connection explanation and nothing else.
User prompt: Please make up a funny explanation for how a decrease in Air pollution in Syracuse, New York caused Arson in United States to decrease. Include one good pun.

AI academic paper

(Because p < 0.01)

Aerosol Arson: Analyzing the Alleged Association between Air Pollution in Auburn and Arson in America

The Journal of Environmental Criminology and Atmospheric Chemistry

Jan 2024

Reminder: This paper is AI-generated. Not real!

^{Show prompt used to generate this paper} Quick note: This sequence is long and repetitive. That's how the prompt engineering works for this one. I manage the output in Python to format it into this PDF.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You draft a literature review section of an academic research paper, that starts out dry for the first few sentences but then becomes hilarious and goofy.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up a literature review section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Air pollution in Syracuse, New York and Arson in United States. Make lots of jokes, goofy observations, and puns.

Speak in the present tense for this section (the authors find...), as is common in academic research paper literature reviews. Name the sources in a format similar to this: In "Book," the authors find lorem and ipsum.

Make up the lorem and ipsum part, but make it sound related to the topic at hand.

Start by naming serious-sounding studies by authors like Smith, Doe, and Jones - but then quickly devolve. Name some real non-fiction books that would be related to the topic. Then name some real fiction books that sound like they could be related. Perhaps you also got inspiration from some board games that are vaugely related.

Here is the title and abstract of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
Aerosol Arson: Analyzing the Alleged Association between Air Pollution in Auburn and Arson in America

[[ABSTRACT]]
This paper investigates the purported link between air pollution levels in Auburn, New York, and the incidence of arson throughout the United States. Utilizing data from the Environmental Protection Agency and the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services spanning the years 1985 to 2022, our research indicates a surprisingly substantial correlation coefficient of 0.8283318 and a statistically significant p-value of less than 0.01. While the connection may seem far-fetched, our findings suggest that there may be more to the cliché of "hot air" than meets the eye, shedding light on the potential unintended consequences of environmental degradation. Further research is warranted to explore the underlying mechanisms of this surprising association, but for now, it seems that when it comes to arson, the relationship with air pollution is more than just smoke and mirrors!

-------

And here is the introduction section that led to this literature review:
[[INTRODUCTION]]
Arson, the deliberate setting of fires, is a serious crime that can result in extensive property damage, loss of life, and a sharp increase in insurance premiums for everyone involved. At the same time, air pollution, which includes a delightful smorgasbord of particulate matter, volatile organic compounds, and other charming atmospheric constituents, has been a subject of growing concern due to its adverse effects on human health and the environment. While these two phenomena may seem about as related as a fish and a bicycle, recent research has suggested a potential connection between the air quality in Auburn, New York, and the nationwide incidence of arson. This seemingly incongruous pairing piqued our interest, prompting us to embark on an investigation worthy of Sherlock Holmes himself (minus the deerstalker cap and pipe, of course).
We aim to explore whether there is a true statistical relationship between air pollution in Auburn, New York, and the occurrence of arson across the United States. If such a link does exist, it may have implications not only for the prevention of arson but also for environmental policy and public health strategies. Despite the initial implausibility of this association, the analysis of extensive data sets from the Environmental Protection Agency and the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services has revealed a surprisingly robust correlation between these seemingly disparate variables. However, it's essential to approach these findings with caution, as correlation does not necessarily imply causation, as any good researcher knows.
Our groundbreaking results may prompt one to reconsider the old adage "where there's smoke, there's fire," quite literally in this case. The influence of air pollution on human behavior and the potential interactions with sociodemographic factors remain underexplored territory, ripe for investigation. Although we have established a striking statistical relationship, the underlying mechanisms and potential mediating variables remain as mysterious as a magician's disappearing act. Hence, further research is warranted to illuminate the reasons behind this unexpected interplay between atmospheric pollutants and incendiary behavior. Despite the wildfire of excitement that our findings may ignite, let us tread cautiously and not jump to conclusions like an overeager kangaroo. This paper delves into the tantalizing conundrum of how a seemingly ethereal form of pollution may be fueling a very tangible and dangerous crime.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]

ChatGPT:
[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]

The purported association between air pollution in Auburn, New York, and the incidence of arson across the United States has been the subject of both serious inquiry and, shall we say, more whimsical musings. Smith, Doe, and Jones (2009) conduct a thorough analysis of air quality indices and arson statistics, revealing a statistically significant correlation between the two variables. Their findings throw a figurative gauntlet at the feet of skeptics, challenging them to reconcile the seemingly incongruous pairing of atmospheric pollutants and incendiary behavior. However, the audacity of this connection cannot be fully appreciated without acknowledging the broader context of environmental influences on human behavior.

In "The Poisoned City: Flint's Water and the American Urban Tragedy," Anna Clark explores the insidious effects of environmental degradation on community dynamics, demonstrating the potential for seemingly innocuous pollutants to sow seeds of discontent and, in the case of arson, quite literal flames (Clark, 2018). From a different angle, "The Air He Breathes" by Brittainy C. Cherry provides a fictional yet oddly resonant narrative of personal redemption amid the backdrop of industrial pollution, suggesting a more intimate link between environmental degradation and individual psychological responses (Cherry, 2015). The notion of toxic air as a catalyst for deviant behavior finds an unexpected echo in the classic board game "Scrabble," where players may find themselves inciting verbal pyrotechnics as they compete to form words from a limited pool of letters, much like the limited pool of clean air in highly polluted areas.

On a more serious note, "Air Quality, Health, and the Urban Environment" by Robert V. Hersh (2017) offers a comprehensive review of the detrimental health effects of air pollution, which, while not directly related to arson, underscores the pervasive impact of polluted air on human well-being. However, the correspondence between environmental degradation and criminal behavior may be more than just an academic exercise, as "Firefighting Strategies and Tactics" by James S. Angle (2019) provides valuable insight into the challenges faced by fire professionals in combating arson incidents, shedding valuable light on the real-world implications of our seemingly esoteric inquiry.

While our initial foray into this subject may seem akin to embarking on a treasure hunt armed with nothing but a butter knife and a map of Narnia, the growing body of literature addressing the multifaceted implications of air pollution on human behavior offers both sobering and unexpectedly whimsical insights into our understanding of the subtle yet powerful influences at play. It is with no small measure of anticipation that we turn to the subsequent sections of this paper to delve further into the enigmatic relationship between air pollution in Auburn, New York, and the fiery phenomenon of arson throughout the United States.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You draft the methodology section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the methodology section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Air pollution in Syracuse, New York and Arson in United States. Make lots of jokes, goofy observations, and puns. Stay serious and dry most of the time, but then occasionally let your wit shine through.

Your research team collected data from all across the internet, but mostly just used information from Environmental Protection Agency and FBI Criminal Justice Information Services . You used data from 1985 to 2022

Make up the research methods you don't know. Make them a bit goofy and convoluted.

Here is the title, abstract, and introduction of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
Aerosol Arson: Analyzing the Alleged Association between Air Pollution in Auburn and Arson in America

[[ABSTRACT]]
This paper investigates the purported link between air pollution levels in Auburn, New York, and the incidence of arson throughout the United States. Utilizing data from the Environmental Protection Agency and the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services spanning the years 1985 to 2022, our research indicates a surprisingly substantial correlation coefficient of 0.8283318 and a statistically significant p-value of less than 0.01. While the connection may seem far-fetched, our findings suggest that there may be more to the cliché of "hot air" than meets the eye, shedding light on the potential unintended consequences of environmental degradation. Further research is warranted to explore the underlying mechanisms of this surprising association, but for now, it seems that when it comes to arson, the relationship with air pollution is more than just smoke and mirrors!

[[INTRODUCTION]]
Arson, the deliberate setting of fires, is a serious crime that can result in extensive property damage, loss of life, and a sharp increase in insurance premiums for everyone involved. At the same time, air pollution, which includes a delightful smorgasbord of particulate matter, volatile organic compounds, and other charming atmospheric constituents, has been a subject of growing concern due to its adverse effects on human health and the environment. While these two phenomena may seem about as related as a fish and a bicycle, recent research has suggested a potential connection between the air quality in Auburn, New York, and the nationwide incidence of arson. This seemingly incongruous pairing piqued our interest, prompting us to embark on an investigation worthy of Sherlock Holmes himself (minus the deerstalker cap and pipe, of course).
We aim to explore whether there is a true statistical relationship between air pollution in Auburn, New York, and the occurrence of arson across the United States. If such a link does exist, it may have implications not only for the prevention of arson but also for environmental policy and public health strategies. Despite the initial implausibility of this association, the analysis of extensive data sets from the Environmental Protection Agency and the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services has revealed a surprisingly robust correlation between these seemingly disparate variables. However, it's essential to approach these findings with caution, as correlation does not necessarily imply causation, as any good researcher knows.
Our groundbreaking results may prompt one to reconsider the old adage "where there's smoke, there's fire," quite literally in this case. The influence of air pollution on human behavior and the potential interactions with sociodemographic factors remain underexplored territory, ripe for investigation. Although we have established a striking statistical relationship, the underlying mechanisms and potential mediating variables remain as mysterious as a magician's disappearing act. Hence, further research is warranted to illuminate the reasons behind this unexpected interplay between atmospheric pollutants and incendiary behavior. Despite the wildfire of excitement that our findings may ignite, let us tread cautiously and not jump to conclusions like an overeager kangaroo. This paper delves into the tantalizing conundrum of how a seemingly ethereal form of pollution may be fueling a very tangible and dangerous crime.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[METHODOLOGY]]

ChatGPT:

[[METHODOLOGY]]

To investigate the alleged association between air pollution in Auburn, New York, and arson in the United States, an assortment of data-gathering methods reminiscent of a culinary mishmash was employed. The primary ingredient in our research recipe was the collection of air pollution data from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). This data, encompassing various atmospheric contaminants such as particulate matter, sulfur oxides, nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, and volatile organic compounds, was compiled from air quality monitoring stations in and around the Auburn area. Meanwhile, information on arson incidents across the United States was extracted from the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services, providing a comprehensive dish of arson statistics from 1985 to 2022.

The EPA's Air Quality System (AQS) database served as our treasure trove of atmospheric composition, akin to an intergalactic library of airborne particles and chemical compounds. This data was then converted into a delectable array of air pollution metrics, including but not limited to daily average concentrations of various air pollutants and the Air Quality Index (AQI), which quantifies overall air quality on a scale from "Good" to "Hazardous." These metrics were further spiced up with spatial and temporal dimensions, allowing us to establish the spatiotemporal dynamics of air pollution in Auburn over the years. As for arson data, the FBI's Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program provided the necessary raw material for assessing the incidence and characteristics of intentionally set fires, adding a flavorful touch of criminal statistics to our analytical mix.

Having secured these datasets resembling a fusion dish of environmental and criminological information, a systematic analytical process was initiated. The first step resembled a delicate ballet of data cleansing and validation, ensuring that our ingredients were free from the contamination of outliers, inconsistencies, and missing values. Once cleansed, the data underwent a culinary transformation through statistical manipulations and modeling techniques. Correlation analyses, multivariate regressions, and time series modeling were employed to stir the pot and uncover any discernible patterns or relationships between air pollution levels in Auburn and the occurrence of arson incidents across the United States.

To spice things up further, supplementary analyses were conducted to explore potential mediating factors and confounding variables that could influence the purported association between air pollution and arson. Demographic and socioeconomic indicators at both the local and national levels were sprinkled into the mix, allowing for a robust examination of how these factors might interact with the flavors of environmental degradation and incendiary behavior. Meanwhile, sophisticated spatial analyses akin to a geographic spice bazaar unveiled the spatial distribution of arson incidents relative to air pollution hotspots, elucidating the geographical nuances of our research ingredients.

Lastly, a dash of sensitivity analysis was applied to test the robustness of our findings and ensure that the observed relationship between air pollution in Auburn and arson in the United States did not wilt under the scrutiny of alternative statistical methodologies or alternative specifications of the analytical recipe.

In this manner, our culinary approach to data collection, measurement, and analysis allowed for a comprehensive exploration of the alleged connection between air pollution in Auburn and the incidence of arson across the United States. While the process may have been unconventional, our results offer a tantalizing glimpse into the potential entanglement of environmental air quality and criminal fire-setting behavior. Further investigations are warranted to peel back the layers of this intriguing association and satisfy our insatiable appetite for knowledge.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You draft the results section of an academic research paper. You speak in the past tense (you found...).
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the results section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Air pollution in Syracuse, New York and Arson in United States. Make lots of jokes, goofy observations, and puns. Stay serious and dry most of the time, but then occasionally let your wit shine through.

Your research team collected data from all across the internet, but mostly just used information from Environmental Protection Agency and FBI Criminal Justice Information Services .

For the time period 1985 to 2022, you found a correlation 0.8283318, r-squared of 0.6861336, and p < 0.01.

One figure will be included. The figure (Fig. 1) is a scatterplot showing the strong correlation between the two variables. You don't need to specify where; I will add the figure.

Here is the title and abstract of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
Aerosol Arson: Analyzing the Alleged Association between Air Pollution in Auburn and Arson in America

[[ABSTRACT]]
This paper investigates the purported link between air pollution levels in Auburn, New York, and the incidence of arson throughout the United States. Utilizing data from the Environmental Protection Agency and the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services spanning the years 1985 to 2022, our research indicates a surprisingly substantial correlation coefficient of 0.8283318 and a statistically significant p-value of less than 0.01. While the connection may seem far-fetched, our findings suggest that there may be more to the cliché of "hot air" than meets the eye, shedding light on the potential unintended consequences of environmental degradation. Further research is warranted to explore the underlying mechanisms of this surprising association, but for now, it seems that when it comes to arson, the relationship with air pollution is more than just smoke and mirrors!

-------

And here is the methodology section that led to this result:
[[METHODOLOGY]]
Arson, the deliberate setting of fires, is a serious crime that can result in extensive property damage, loss of life, and a sharp increase in insurance premiums for everyone involved. At the same time, air pollution, which includes a delightful smorgasbord of particulate matter, volatile organic compounds, and other charming atmospheric constituents, has been a subject of growing concern due to its adverse effects on human health and the environment. While these two phenomena may seem about as related as a fish and a bicycle, recent research has suggested a potential connection between the air quality in Auburn, New York, and the nationwide incidence of arson. This seemingly incongruous pairing piqued our interest, prompting us to embark on an investigation worthy of Sherlock Holmes himself (minus the deerstalker cap and pipe, of course).
We aim to explore whether there is a true statistical relationship between air pollution in Auburn, New York, and the occurrence of arson across the United States. If such a link does exist, it may have implications not only for the prevention of arson but also for environmental policy and public health strategies. Despite the initial implausibility of this association, the analysis of extensive data sets from the Environmental Protection Agency and the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services has revealed a surprisingly robust correlation between these seemingly disparate variables. However, it's essential to approach these findings with caution, as correlation does not necessarily imply causation, as any good researcher knows.
Our groundbreaking results may prompt one to reconsider the old adage "where there's smoke, there's fire," quite literally in this case. The influence of air pollution on human behavior and the potential interactions with sociodemographic factors remain underexplored territory, ripe for investigation. Although we have established a striking statistical relationship, the underlying mechanisms and potential mediating variables remain as mysterious as a magician's disappearing act. Hence, further research is warranted to illuminate the reasons behind this unexpected interplay between atmospheric pollutants and incendiary behavior. Despite the wildfire of excitement that our findings may ignite, let us tread cautiously and not jump to conclusions like an overeager kangaroo. This paper delves into the tantalizing conundrum of how a seemingly ethereal form of pollution may be fueling a very tangible and dangerous crime.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[RESULTS]]

ChatGPT:

[[RESULTS]]

The analysis of the data collected from the Environmental Protection Agency and the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services for the years 1985 to 2022 yielded intriguing results. Our investigation into the purported relationship between air pollution levels in Auburn, New York, and the incidence of arson throughout the United States has unearthed a remarkable correlation coefficient of 0.8283318. This correlation is supported by an r-squared value of 0.6861336 and a p-value of less than 0.01, indicating a statistically significant association between these seemingly unrelated variables.

The findings are encapsulated in the visually striking scatterplot (Fig. 1), which depicts the strong positive correlation between air pollution in Auburn and the occurrence of arson nationwide. As the saying goes, a picture is worth a thousand words, or in this case, a thousand data points. The scatterplot serves as a compelling visual representation of the substantial correlation uncovered in our analysis.

While the link between air pollution and arson may seem as unlikely as finding a needle in a haystack – or in this case, finding a motive in a haze of smog – our results challenge conventional wisdom. It appears that the relationship between these two variables is not up in smoke, but rather burns brightly with statistical significance.

The implications of these findings extend far beyond the realm of statistical analysis. They suggest that the impact of air pollution may reach much farther than previously thought, potentially influencing human behavior in unexpected ways. Although we must exercise caution in inferring causation from correlation, as any discerning researcher knows, the results of this study point to a hitherto unexplored avenue of inquiry. Our findings hint at the curious possibility that environmental factors, specifically air pollution, may be more influential in shaping human actions than previously assumed.

In conclusion, the association between air pollution in Auburn, New York, and the incidence of arson across the United States, while initially surprising, merits further investigation. Our results challenge traditional assumptions and open the door to a new frontier of research, where the atmosphere's subtle hand in human activity is not to be underestimated. This unexpected connection ultimately reminds us that in the world of scientific inquiry, there's always more than meets the eye – just like the elusive connection between air pollution and arson.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You draft the discussion section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the discussion section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Air pollution in Syracuse, New York and Arson in United States. Make lots of jokes, goofy observations, and puns. Stay serious and dry most of the time, but then occasionally let your wit shine through.

Limit your response to 500 tokens.

Here are the title, abstract, literature review, and results sections. Please harken back to 1-2 of the goofy items in the literature review, but pretend to take them completely seriously. Discuss how your results supported the prior research.

Do not write a conclusion. I will add a conclusion after this.

[[TITLE]]
Aerosol Arson: Analyzing the Alleged Association between Air Pollution in Auburn and Arson in America

[[ABSTRACT]]
This paper investigates the purported link between air pollution levels in Auburn, New York, and the incidence of arson throughout the United States. Utilizing data from the Environmental Protection Agency and the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services spanning the years 1985 to 2022, our research indicates a surprisingly substantial correlation coefficient of 0.8283318 and a statistically significant p-value of less than 0.01. While the connection may seem far-fetched, our findings suggest that there may be more to the cliché of "hot air" than meets the eye, shedding light on the potential unintended consequences of environmental degradation. Further research is warranted to explore the underlying mechanisms of this surprising association, but for now, it seems that when it comes to arson, the relationship with air pollution is more than just smoke and mirrors!

[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]
The purported association between air pollution in Auburn, New York, and the incidence of arson across the United States has been the subject of both serious inquiry and, shall we say, more whimsical musings. Smith, Doe, and Jones (2009) conduct a thorough analysis of air quality indices and arson statistics, revealing a statistically significant correlation between the two variables. Their findings throw a figurative gauntlet at the feet of skeptics, challenging them to reconcile the seemingly incongruous pairing of atmospheric pollutants and incendiary behavior. However, the audacity of this connection cannot be fully appreciated without acknowledging the broader context of environmental influences on human behavior.
In "The Poisoned City: Flint's Water and the American Urban Tragedy," Anna Clark explores the insidious effects of environmental degradation on community dynamics, demonstrating the potential for seemingly innocuous pollutants to sow seeds of discontent and, in the case of arson, quite literal flames (Clark, 2018). From a different angle, "The Air He Breathes" by Brittainy C. Cherry provides a fictional yet oddly resonant narrative of personal redemption amid the backdrop of industrial pollution, suggesting a more intimate link between environmental degradation and individual psychological responses (Cherry, 2015). The notion of toxic air as a catalyst for deviant behavior finds an unexpected echo in the classic board game "Scrabble," where players may find themselves inciting verbal pyrotechnics as they compete to form words from a limited pool of letters, much like the limited pool of clean air in highly polluted areas.
On a more serious note, "Air Quality, Health, and the Urban Environment" by Robert V. Hersh (2017) offers a comprehensive review of the detrimental health effects of air pollution, which, while not directly related to arson, underscores the pervasive impact of polluted air on human well-being. However, the correspondence between environmental degradation and criminal behavior may be more than just an academic exercise, as "Firefighting Strategies and Tactics" by James S. Angle (2019) provides valuable insight into the challenges faced by fire professionals in combating arson incidents, shedding valuable light on the real-world implications of our seemingly esoteric inquiry.
While our initial foray into this subject may seem akin to embarking on a treasure hunt armed with nothing but a butter knife and a map of Narnia, the growing body of literature addressing the multifaceted implications of air pollution on human behavior offers both sobering and unexpectedly whimsical insights into our understanding of the subtle yet powerful influences at play. It is with no small measure of anticipation that we turn to the subsequent sections of this paper to delve further into the enigmatic relationship between air pollution in Auburn, New York, and the fiery phenomenon of arson throughout the United States.

[[RESULTS]]
The analysis of the data collected from the Environmental Protection Agency and the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services for the years 1985 to 2022 yielded intriguing results. Our investigation into the purported relationship between air pollution levels in Auburn, New York, and the incidence of arson throughout the United States has unearthed a remarkable correlation coefficient of 0.8283318. This correlation is supported by an r-squared value of 0.6861336 and a p-value of less than 0.01, indicating a statistically significant association between these seemingly unrelated variables.
The findings are encapsulated in the visually striking scatterplot (Fig. 1), which depicts the strong positive correlation between air pollution in Auburn and the occurrence of arson nationwide. As the saying goes, a picture is worth a thousand words, or in this case, a thousand data points. The scatterplot serves as a compelling visual representation of the substantial correlation uncovered in our analysis.
While the link between air pollution and arson may seem as unlikely as finding a needle in a haystack – or in this case, finding a motive in a haze of smog – our results challenge conventional wisdom. It appears that the relationship between these two variables is not up in smoke, but rather burns brightly with statistical significance.
The implications of these findings extend far beyond the realm of statistical analysis. They suggest that the impact of air pollution may reach much farther than previously thought, potentially influencing human behavior in unexpected ways. Although we must exercise caution in inferring causation from correlation, as any discerning researcher knows, the results of this study point to a hitherto unexplored avenue of inquiry. Our findings hint at the curious possibility that environmental factors, specifically air pollution, may be more influential in shaping human actions than previously assumed.
In conclusion, the association between air pollution in Auburn, New York, and the incidence of arson across the United States, while initially surprising, merits further investigation. Our results challenge traditional assumptions and open the door to a new frontier of research, where the atmosphere's subtle hand in human activity is not to be underestimated. This unexpected connection ultimately reminds us that in the world of scientific inquiry, there's always more than meets the eye – just like the elusive connection between air pollution and arson.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[DISCUSSION]]

ChatGPT:

[[DISCUSSION]]

The unexpectedly robust correlation between air pollution in Auburn, New York, and the incidence of arson across the United States elucidates a remarkable interplay between environmental factors and human behavior. While these findings may seem as unlikely as winning the lottery while being struck by lightning, they echo the earlier studies conducted by Smith, Doe, and Jones (2009), who similarly uncovered a statistically significant correlation between air quality indices and arson statistics. This alignment with prior research reinforces the salience of our current findings and underscores the need for further exploration of the intricate relationship between atmospheric pollutants and incendiary behavior.

As highlighted in the literature review, the broader context of environmental influences on human behavior cannot be overlooked. Clark's (2018) exploration of the insidious effects of environmental degradation on community dynamics suggests that seemingly innocuous pollutants may indeed sow seeds of discontent and literal flames. This context substantiates the notion that air pollution may exert a more pronounced influence on human behavior than conventionally assumed. Similarly, the unexpected link between air pollution and individual psychological responses, as hinted at in Cherry's (2015) evocative narrative, lends credence to the notion that environmental degradation may extend its effects into realms beyond mere physical health.

It is worth noting that the unexpected associations uncovered in this study remind us that the line between causation and correlation is often as thin as a wisp of smoke. Therefore, the observed correlation between air pollution and arson does not inherently imply a causal relationship. However, the findings do prompt us to ponder the multifaceted implications of air pollution and its potential to influence human actions in intricate and unexpected ways.

The statistical significance of the correlation coefficient, coupled with the visually compelling scatterplot, challenges the conventional boundaries of environmental impact on human behavior. The associations uncovered in this study, while initially as incongruous as a fish riding a bicycle, bear implications that reach far beyond the confines of statistical analysis. When considering the real-world implications of our seemingly esoteric inquiry, the unexpected connection between air pollution and arson unveils the subtle but powerful influences at play, highlighting the need for future exploration.

In conclusion, our research lends statistical weight to the purported association between air pollution in Auburn, New York, and the incidence of arson throughout the United States. These unexpected findings expand the frontiers of environmental research and serve as a poignant reminder that, in the enigmatic realm of scientific inquiry, there is always more than meets the eye – much like the elusive connection between air pollution and arson.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You draft the discussion section of goofy academic research papers that sounds like it belongs based on the title and abstract provided.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up a short conclusion of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Air pollution in Syracuse, New York and Arson in United States. Make lots of jokes, goofy observations, and puns. Stay serious and dry most of the time, but then occasionally let your wit shine through.

Limit your response to 300 tokens. At the very end, assert that no more research is needed in this area.

Here are the title, abstract, introduction, and results sections.
[[TITLE]]
Aerosol Arson: Analyzing the Alleged Association between Air Pollution in Auburn and Arson in America

[[ABSTRACT]]
This paper investigates the purported link between air pollution levels in Auburn, New York, and the incidence of arson throughout the United States. Utilizing data from the Environmental Protection Agency and the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services spanning the years 1985 to 2022, our research indicates a surprisingly substantial correlation coefficient of 0.8283318 and a statistically significant p-value of less than 0.01. While the connection may seem far-fetched, our findings suggest that there may be more to the cliché of "hot air" than meets the eye, shedding light on the potential unintended consequences of environmental degradation. Further research is warranted to explore the underlying mechanisms of this surprising association, but for now, it seems that when it comes to arson, the relationship with air pollution is more than just smoke and mirrors!

[[INTRDUCTION]]
Arson, the deliberate setting of fires, is a serious crime that can result in extensive property damage, loss of life, and a sharp increase in insurance premiums for everyone involved. At the same time, air pollution, which includes a delightful smorgasbord of particulate matter, volatile organic compounds, and other charming atmospheric constituents, has been a subject of growing concern due to its adverse effects on human health and the environment. While these two phenomena may seem about as related as a fish and a bicycle, recent research has suggested a potential connection between the air quality in Auburn, New York, and the nationwide incidence of arson. This seemingly incongruous pairing piqued our interest, prompting us to embark on an investigation worthy of Sherlock Holmes himself (minus the deerstalker cap and pipe, of course).
We aim to explore whether there is a true statistical relationship between air pollution in Auburn, New York, and the occurrence of arson across the United States. If such a link does exist, it may have implications not only for the prevention of arson but also for environmental policy and public health strategies. Despite the initial implausibility of this association, the analysis of extensive data sets from the Environmental Protection Agency and the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services has revealed a surprisingly robust correlation between these seemingly disparate variables. However, it's essential to approach these findings with caution, as correlation does not necessarily imply causation, as any good researcher knows.
Our groundbreaking results may prompt one to reconsider the old adage "where there's smoke, there's fire," quite literally in this case. The influence of air pollution on human behavior and the potential interactions with sociodemographic factors remain underexplored territory, ripe for investigation. Although we have established a striking statistical relationship, the underlying mechanisms and potential mediating variables remain as mysterious as a magician's disappearing act. Hence, further research is warranted to illuminate the reasons behind this unexpected interplay between atmospheric pollutants and incendiary behavior. Despite the wildfire of excitement that our findings may ignite, let us tread cautiously and not jump to conclusions like an overeager kangaroo. This paper delves into the tantalizing conundrum of how a seemingly ethereal form of pollution may be fueling a very tangible and dangerous crime.

[[RESULTS]]
The analysis of the data collected from the Environmental Protection Agency and the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services for the years 1985 to 2022 yielded intriguing results. Our investigation into the purported relationship between air pollution levels in Auburn, New York, and the incidence of arson throughout the United States has unearthed a remarkable correlation coefficient of 0.8283318. This correlation is supported by an r-squared value of 0.6861336 and a p-value of less than 0.01, indicating a statistically significant association between these seemingly unrelated variables.
The findings are encapsulated in the visually striking scatterplot (Fig. 1), which depicts the strong positive correlation between air pollution in Auburn and the occurrence of arson nationwide. As the saying goes, a picture is worth a thousand words, or in this case, a thousand data points. The scatterplot serves as a compelling visual representation of the substantial correlation uncovered in our analysis.
While the link between air pollution and arson may seem as unlikely as finding a needle in a haystack – or in this case, finding a motive in a haze of smog – our results challenge conventional wisdom. It appears that the relationship between these two variables is not up in smoke, but rather burns brightly with statistical significance.
The implications of these findings extend far beyond the realm of statistical analysis. They suggest that the impact of air pollution may reach much farther than previously thought, potentially influencing human behavior in unexpected ways. Although we must exercise caution in inferring causation from correlation, as any discerning researcher knows, the results of this study point to a hitherto unexplored avenue of inquiry. Our findings hint at the curious possibility that environmental factors, specifically air pollution, may be more influential in shaping human actions than previously assumed.
In conclusion, the association between air pollution in Auburn, New York, and the incidence of arson across the United States, while initially surprising, merits further investigation. Our results challenge traditional assumptions and open the door to a new frontier of research, where the atmosphere's subtle hand in human activity is not to be underestimated. This unexpected connection ultimately reminds us that in the world of scientific inquiry, there's always more than meets the eye – just like the elusive connection between air pollution and arson.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[CONCLUSION]]

ChatGPT:

[[CONCLUSION]]

In conclusion, our research has illuminated a striking statistical relationship between air pollution levels in Auburn, New York, and the incidence of arson throughout the United States. The pervasive correlation coefficient of 0.8283318 hints at a connection as clear as a smoke signal on a still day. Our findings have stirred up quite a whirlwind of excitement, challenging preconceived notions and prompting a reevaluation of the complacency regarding atmospheric influences on human behavior.

The implications of our study extend beyond the confines of data analysis, raising questions about the potential role of air pollution in shaping human actions. If air pollution can fan the flames of arson, what other surprises might it have in store for us? Perhaps it's time for environmental policy to start playing with fire in considering the unintended consequences of pollution.

But let's not jump the gun – or in this case, the firetruck. While our study brings this unlikely association to light, it is imperative to tread with caution before stoking the flames of causation. Further research is warranted to untangle the knotty complexities of this relationship and to ensure that we don't get burned by drawing premature conclusions. Nevertheless, it seems that in the realm of environmental influences, the saying "where there's smog, there's fire" may not be as far-fetched as it sounds.

Pardon the pun, but it seems that the question of whether air pollution is truly a "hot" topic in arson research has been unequivocally answered. To put it bluntly, it's time to extinguish any doubts about the relevance of environmental factors in understanding human behavior. In the grand theater of scientific inquiry, our findings remind us that even the most unlikely partners can step into the spotlight and take a bow, leaving us to ponder the unexpected synergies that drive this world.

In this case, it seems that the connection between air pollution in Auburn, New York, and arson across the United States is as clear as smoke billowing from a freshly lit match. With our study lighting the way, it's safe to say that there's no need for further research in this area. After all, in the words of Sherlock Holmes himself, "The game is afoot!"

In this spirit, we conclude that this conundrum has been thoroughly explored, and it's time to turn down the heat on this particular avenue of inquiry.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide fictional names of academic journals. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide the name of a funny but plausible sounding research, scientific, or academic journal that would publish a paper entited Aerosol Arson: Analyzing the Alleged Association between Air Pollution in Auburn and Arson in America. Respond only with the name of a fictional academic journal.

ChatGPT:

The Journal of Environmental Criminology and Atmospheric Chemistry

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide fictional names of nonprofit research organizations and associations. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide the name of a funny but plausible sounding nonprofit, academic, or scientific association or organization that would sponsor research that resulted in a paper entited Aerosol Arson: Analyzing the Alleged Association between Air Pollution in Auburn and Arson in America. Respond only with the name of a fictional organization.

ChatGPT:

The Society for Atmospheric Arson Studies

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide potential search keywords separated by commas. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide potential search keywords for a paper titled Aerosol Arson: Analyzing the Alleged Association between Air Pollution in Auburn and Arson in America with an abstract of This paper investigates the purported link between air pollution levels in Auburn, New York, and the incidence of arson throughout the United States. Utilizing data from the Environmental Protection Agency and the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services spanning the years 1985 to 2022, our research indicates a surprisingly substantial correlation coefficient of 0.8283318 and a statistically significant p-value of less than 0.01. While the connection may seem far-fetched, our findings suggest that there may be more to the cliché of "hot air" than meets the eye, shedding light on the potential unintended consequences of environmental degradation. Further research is warranted to explore the underlying mechanisms of this surprising association, but for now, it seems that when it comes to arson, the relationship with air pollution is more than just smoke and mirrors!

ChatGPT:

Auburn air pollution, arson correlation, Environmental Protection Agency data, FBI Criminal Justice Information Services, air pollution and arson, environmental degradation consequences, air pollution and crime, association between air pollution and arson

*There is a bunch of Python happening behind the scenes to turn this prompt sequence into a PDF.

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Data details

Air pollution in Syracuse, New York
Detailed data title: Percentage of days with moderate or worse air quality in Syracuse, NY
Source: Environmental Protection Agency
See what else correlates with Air pollution in Syracuse, New York

Arson in United States
Detailed data title: The arson rate per 100,000 residents in United States
Source: FBI Criminal Justice Information Services
See what else correlates with Arson in United States

Correlation r = 0.8283318 (Pearson correlation coefficient)
Correlation is a measure of how much the variables move together. If it is 0.99, when one goes up the other goes up. If it is 0.02, the connection is very weak or non-existent. If it is -0.99, then when one goes up the other goes down. If it is 1.00, you probably messed up your correlation function.

r² = 0.6861336 (Coefficient of determination)
This means 68.6% of the change in the one variable (i.e., Arson in United States) is predictable based on the change in the other (i.e., Air pollution in Syracuse, New York) over the 38 years from 1985 through 2022.

p < 0.01, which is statistically significant(Null hypothesis significance test)
The p-value is 1.4E-10.^Show 0.0000000001376852299208901400
The p-value is a measure of how probable it is that we would randomly find a result this extreme.^Note More specifically the p-value is a measure of how probable it is that we would randomly find a result this extreme if we had only tested one pair of variables one time.

But I am a p-villain. I absolutely did not test only one pair of variables one time. I correlated hundreds of millions of pairs of variables. I threw boatloads of data into an industrial-sized blender to find this correlation.

Who is going to stop me? p-value reporting doesn't require me to report how many calculations I had to go through in order to find a low p-value!
On average, you will find a correaltion as strong as 0.83 in 1.4E-8% of random cases. Said differently, if you correlated 7,262,943,168 random variables^Note You don't actually need 7 billion variables to find a correlation like this one. I don't have that many variables in my database. You can also correlate variables that are not independent. I do this a lot.

p-value calculations are useful for understanding the probability of a result happening by chance. They are most useful when used to highlight the risk of a fluke outcome. For example, if you calculate a p-value of 0.30, the risk that the result is a fluke is high. It is good to know that! But there are lots of ways to get a p-value of less than 0.01, as evidenced by this project.

In this particular case, the values are so extreme as to be meaningless. That's why no one reports p-values with specificity after they drop below 0.01.

Just to be clear: I'm being completely transparent about the calculations. There is no math trickery. This is just how statistics shakes out when you calculate hundreds of millions of random correlations.
with the same 37 degrees of freedom, ^Note Degrees of freedom is a measure of how many free components we are testing. In this case it is 37 because we have two variables measured over a period of 38 years. It's just the number of years minus ( the number of variables minus one ), which in this case simplifies to the number of years minus one.
you would randomly expect to find a correlation as strong as this one.

[ 0.69, 0.91 ] 95% correlation confidence interval (using the Fisher z-transformation)
^{Read more about the confidence interval} The confidence interval is an estimate the range of the value of the correlation coefficient, using the correlation itself as an input. The values are meant to be the low and high end of the correlation coefficient with 95% confidence.

This one is a bit more complciated than the other calculations, but I include it because many people have been pushing for confidence intervals instead of p-value calculations (for example: NEJM. However, if you are dredging data, you can reliably find yourself in the 5%. That's my goal!

All values for the years included above: ^Note If I were being very sneaky, I could trim years from the beginning or end of the datasets to increase the correlation on some pairs of variables. I don't do that because there are already plenty of correlations in my database without monkeying with the years.

Still, sometimes one of the variables has more years of data available than the other. This page only shows the overlapping years. To see all the years, click on "See what else correlates with..." link above.

	1985	1986	1987	1988	1989	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
Air pollution in Syracuse, New York (Bad air quality days)	30.5785	38.0822	39.4521	32.6027	27.3973	23.0137	30.411	22.4044	23.2877	21.6438	17.5342	16.6667	15.0685	21.9178	24.3836	22.6776	27.3973	27.6712	23.2877	14.4809	23.8356	15.8904	19.1781	16.9399	10.6849	16.9863	9.58904	13.1148	7.39726	8.76712	15.3425	8.74317	7.39726	12.8767	7.67123	8.74317	13.4247	3.83562
Arson in United States (Arson rate)	43.6	46.3	42.5	41	41.4	41.7	41	40.8	37.3	39.6	36.7	34.6	32.6	29.7	28.8	24.7	27.7	26.8	25	23.6	23.1	24.4	22.6	21.6	19.5	18.1	17.5	17.6	14.9	14.5	13.7	14.1	13.2	12	11	13.9	8.9	11.6

Why this works

Data dredging: I have 25,153 variables in my database. I compare all these variables against each other to find ones that randomly match up. That's 632,673,409 correlation calculations! This is called “data dredging.” Instead of starting with a hypothesis and testing it, I instead abused the data to see what correlations shake out. It’s a dangerous way to go about analysis, because any sufficiently large dataset will yield strong correlations completely at random.
Lack of causal connection: There is probably^Note Because these pages are automatically generated, it's possible that the two variables you are viewing are in fact causually related. I take steps to prevent the obvious ones from showing on the site (I don't let data about the weather in one city correlate with the weather in a neighboring city, for example), but sometimes they still pop up. If they are related, cool! You found a loophole.
no direct connection between these variables, despite what the AI says above. This is exacerbated by the fact that I used "Years" as the base variable. Lots of things happen in a year that are not related to each other! Most studies would use something like "one person" in stead of "one year" to be the "thing" studied.
Observations not independent: For many variables, sequential years are not independent of each other. If a population of people is continuously doing something every day, there is no reason to think they would suddenly change how they are doing that thing on January 1. A simple^Note Personally I don't find any p-value calculation to be 'simple,' but you know what I mean.
p-value calculation does not take this into account, so mathematically it appears less probable than it really is.

Try it yourself

You can calculate the values on this page on your own! Try running the Python code to see the calculation results. ^{Show the steps to do this.} Step 1: Download and install Python on your computer.

Step 2: Open a plaintext editor like Notepad and paste the code below into it.

Step 3: Save the file as "calculate_correlation.py" in a place you will remember, like your desktop. Copy the file location to your clipboard. On Windows, you can right-click the file and click "Properties," and then copy what comes after "Location:" As an example, on my computer the location is "C:\Users\tyler\Desktop"

Step 4: Open a command line window. For example, by pressing start and typing "cmd" and them pressing enter.

Step 5: Install the required modules by typing "pip install numpy", then pressing enter, then typing "pip install scipy", then pressing enter.

Step 6: Navigate to the location where you saved the Python file by using the "cd" command. For example, I would type "cd C:\Users\tyler\Desktop" and push enter.

Step 7: Run the Python script by typing "python calculate_correlation.py"

If you run into any issues, I suggest asking ChatGPT to walk you through installing Python and running the code below on your system. Try this question:

"Walk me through installing Python on my computer to run a script that uses scipy and numpy. Go step-by-step and ask me to confirm before moving on. Start by asking me questions about my operating system so that you know how to proceed. Assume I want the simplest installation with the latest version of Python and that I do not currently have any of the necessary elements installed. Remember to only give me one step per response and confirm I have done it before proceeding."

# These modules make it easier to perform the calculation
import numpy as np
from scipy import stats

# We'll define a function that we can call to return the correlation calculations
def calculate_correlation(array1, array2):

    # Calculate Pearson correlation coefficient and p-value
    correlation, p_value = stats.pearsonr(array1, array2)

    # Calculate R-squared as the square of the correlation coefficient
    r_squared = correlation**2

    return correlation, r_squared, p_value

# These are the arrays for the variables shown on this page, but you can modify them to be any two sets of numbers
array_1 = np.array([30.5785,38.0822,39.4521,32.6027,27.3973,23.0137,30.411,22.4044,23.2877,21.6438,17.5342,16.6667,15.0685,21.9178,24.3836,22.6776,27.3973,27.6712,23.2877,14.4809,23.8356,15.8904,19.1781,16.9399,10.6849,16.9863,9.58904,13.1148,7.39726,8.76712,15.3425,8.74317,7.39726,12.8767,7.67123,8.74317,13.4247,3.83562,])
array_2 = np.array([43.6,46.3,42.5,41,41.4,41.7,41,40.8,37.3,39.6,36.7,34.6,32.6,29.7,28.8,24.7,27.7,26.8,25,23.6,23.1,24.4,22.6,21.6,19.5,18.1,17.5,17.6,14.9,14.5,13.7,14.1,13.2,12,11,13.9,8.9,11.6,])
array_1_name = "Air pollution in Syracuse, New York"
array_2_name = "Arson in United States"

# Perform the calculation
print(f"Calculating the correlation between {array_1_name} and {array_2_name}...")
correlation, r_squared, p_value = calculate_correlation(array_1, array_2)

# Print the results
print("Correlation Coefficient:", correlation)
print("R-squared:", r_squared)
print("P-value:", p_value)

Reuseable content

You may re-use the images on this page for any purpose, even commercial purposes, without asking for permission. The only requirement is that you attribute Tyler Vigen. ^Note Attribution can take many different forms. If you leave the "tylervigen.com" link in the image, that satisfies it just fine. If you remove it and move it to a footnote, that's fine too. You can also just write "Charts courtesy of Tyler Vigen" at the bottom of an article.

You do not need to attribute "the spurious correlations website," and you don't even need to link here if you don't want to. I don't gain anything from pageviews. There are no ads on this site, there is nothing for sale, and I am not for hire.

For the record, I am just one person. Tyler Vigen, he/him/his. I do have degrees, but they should not go after my name unless you want to annoy my wife. If that is your goal, then go ahead and cite me as "Tyler Vigen, A.A. A.A.S. B.A. J.D." Otherwise it is just "Tyler Vigen."

When spoken, my last name is pronounced "vegan," like I don't eat meat.

Full license details.
For more on re-use permissions, or to get a signed release form, see tylervigen.com/permission.

Download images for these variables:

High resolution line chart ^Note The image linked here is a Scalable Vector Graphic (SVG). It is the highest resolution that is possible to achieve. It scales up beyond the size of the observable universe without pixelating. You do not need to email me asking if I have a higher resolution image. I do not. The physical limitations of our universe prevent me from providing you with an image that is any higher resolution than this one.

If you insert it into a PowerPoint presentation (a tool well-known for managing things that are the scale of the universe), you can right-click > "Ungroup" or "Create Shape" and then edit the lines and text directly. You can also change the colors this way.

Alternatively you can use a tool like Inkscape.
High resolution line chart, optimized for mobile
Alternative high resolution line chart
Scatterplot
Portable line chart (png)
Portable line chart (png), optimized for mobile
Line chart for only Air pollution in Syracuse, New York
Line chart for only Arson in United States
AI-generated correlation image
The spurious research paper: Aerosol Arson: Analyzing the Alleged Association between Air Pollution in Auburn and Arson in America

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Correlation ID: 3636 · Black Variable ID: 21320 · Red Variable ID: 20038


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