Spurious correlation #3,376 · View random
A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is The number of musicians in Nebraska and the second variable is Mizuho Financial Group's stock price (MFG). The chart goes from 2007 to 2022, and the two variables track closely in value over that time.

A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is The number of musicians in Nebraska and the second variable is Mizuho Financial Group's stock price (MFG). The chart goes from 2007 to 2022, and the two variables track closely in value over that time.

Download png, svg

AI explanation

As the number of musicians in Nebraska grows, so does the need for financial support in the music industry. MFG stock is striking a chord with investors as they harmonize the perfect balance of financial services. It's a true case of investment symphony, where MFG is the conductor of success in an ever-growing economic orchestra. With MFG, it's all about maximizing your financial performance and hitting the high notes of prosperity. As Nebraska's musical talent flourishes, so does MFG's stock price, creating a lucrative duet of financial growth. It's a sound investment that's not to be Nebraska-n with! Remember, when it comes to MFG, the investment potential is music to your ears! So, let the music play on and watch MFG's stock price climb to the top of the charts!

^{Show image generation prompt} Model: dalle-3
Prompt: Prompt: Generate a cute art illustration of a small town scene in Nebraska. The focal point should be a group of musicians playing their instruments in a local park, with a particular focus on the tuba players. The musicians are surrounded by a bright sun and cheerful atmosphere. In the background, include a building representing the Mizuho Financial Group office, and depict stock traders cheering inside. Show the surge in metal commodities' price, symbolizing by an upward stock graph of Mizuho Financial Group (MFG). Additionally, highlight a shortage of brass polish with a small detail, like a store with a "Sold Out" sign. The depiction should include only scenes, people, and objects, it should not include text or speech bubbles.

This image generation prompt was also generated by AI, using the following sequence:

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You select one of a few potential scene descriptors that seems to go along with the variables described. You respond only with the scene descriptions provided and say nothing else.
User prompt: Here are two variables: The number of musicians in Nebraska and Mizuho Financial Group's stock price (MFG). Given these, which of the following image style descriptions seems most appropriate? Pick the one that seems to be related to one of the variables at hand. Please respond with only one of the following potential descriptions: Oragami Cutsy art illustration Surrealism Cyberpunk Cutsy art illustration
ChatGPT: Cutsy art illustration

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You describe simple visual scenes that depict the two variables stated. You combine both variables into one scene.
User prompt: Please describe a visual scene that prominently depicts both The number of musicians in Nebraska and Mizuho Financial Group's stock price (MFG), in the following situation: Because the influx of musicians in Nebraska led to a surge in demand for tuba repair services, causing a shortage of brass polish, which forced Mizuho Financial Group to invest in metal commodities and consequently boosted MFG stock price.. Keep the description simple.
ChatGPT: In a small town in Nebraska, a group of musicians gathered at the local park, playing their instruments under the bright sun. Among them, tuba players could be seen practicing in harmony. Meanwhile, at the nearby Mizuho Financial Group office, stock traders cheered as they saw the price of metal commodities surge, leading to a sharp increase in Mizuho Financial Group's stock price (MFG). The demand for tuba repair services had caused a shortage of brass polish, prompting the investment in metal commodities and bringing a smile to the traders' faces.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You write and improve image generation prompts for DALLE-3. You maintain the same subjects, but enhance the visuals.
User prompt: Please respond with an image generation prompt that would be likely to create an interesting visual using DALLE-3, using the following style: [ Cutsy art illustration ] and depicting this scene: In a small town in Nebraska, a group of musicians gathered at the local park, playing their instruments under the bright sun. Among them, tuba players could be seen practicing in harmony. Meanwhile, at the nearby Mizuho Financial Group office, stock traders cheered as they saw the price of metal commodities surge, leading to a sharp increase in Mizuho Financial Group's stock price (MFG). The demand for tuba repair services had caused a shortage of brass polish, prompting the investment in metal commodities and bringing a smile to the traders' faces. Keep the visual depiction simple. Do not include any words or speech bubbles.
ChatGPT: Prompt: Generate a cute art illustration of a small town scene in Nebraska. The focal point should be a group of musicians playing their instruments in a local park, with a particular focus on the tuba players. The musicians are surrounded by a bright sun and cheerful atmosphere. In the background, include a building representing the Mizuho Financial Group office, and depict stock traders cheering inside. Show the surge in metal commodities' price, symbolizing by an upward stock graph of Mizuho Financial Group (MFG). Additionally, highlight a shortage of brass polish with a small detail, like a store with a "Sold Out" sign.

*Variations in the User Prompts from chart to chart are just the result of random number generation in Python. I wrote a few arrays of various styles and methods to ask questions to change up the results. Every time this site writes an explanation or generates an image, the script picks from each at random.

I sequence the requests into multiple prompts because I find GPT 3.5 to perform much better with short, well-managed contexts. Thus, I track the context directly in Python and only ask ChatGPT targeted questions.
^{Show prompt for explanation} Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106 (fine-tuned)
System prompt: You provide humorous responses in the form of plausible sounding explanations for correlations. You assume the correlation is causative for the purpose of the explanation even if it is ridiculous. You do not chat with the user, you only reply with the causal connection explanation and nothing else.
User prompt: Please make up a funny explanation for how increases in The number of musicians in Nebraska positively influenced Mizuho Financial Group's stock price (MFG). Include one good pun.

AI academic paper

(Because p < 0.01)

Strummin' and Succeedin': The Link Between Nebraska Musicians and Mizuho's Moolah

Journal of Melodic Finance

Jan 2024

Reminder: This paper is AI-generated. Not real!

^{Show prompt used to generate this paper} Quick note: This sequence is long and repetitive. That's how the prompt engineering works for this one. I manage the output in Python to format it into this PDF.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a goofy academic researcher writing an academic paper. You follow the rules, but you throw out convention regularly to make jokes and funny asides.You draft a literature review section of an academic research paper, that starts out dry for the first few sentences but then becomes hilarious and goofy.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up a literature review section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between The number of musicians in Nebraska and Mizuho Financial Group's stock price (MFG). Make lots of jokes, goofy observations, and puns.

Speak in the present tense for this section (the authors find...), as is common in academic research paper literature reviews. Name the sources in a format similar to this: In "Book," the authors find lorem and ipsum.

Make up the lorem and ipsum part, but make it sound related to the topic at hand.

Start by naming serious-sounding studies by authors like Smith, Doe, and Jones - but then quickly devolve. Name some real non-fiction books that would be related to the topic. Then name some real fiction books that sound like they could be related. Perhaps you also got inspiration from some board games that are vaugely related.

Here is the title and abstract of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
Strummin' and Succeedin': The Link Between Nebraska Musicians and Mizuho's Moolah

[[ABSTRACT]]
This study delves into an unconventional connection between the number of musicians in Nebraska and the stock price of Mizuho Financial Group (MFG). Despite being as unexpected as finding a kazoo in a symphony orchestra, our research uncovered a surprising correlation. Utilizing data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv), our findings revealed a correlation coefficient of 0.6553510 and p < 0.01 for the period spanning from 2007 to 2022. This discovery may seem more peculiar than a saxophone playing in a string quartet, but it emphasizes the potential impact of seemingly unrelated factors on financial markets. So, next time you're analyzing stock trends, don't forget to check the number of guitarists in Omaha!

-------

And here is the introduction section that led to this literature review:
[[INTRODUCTION]]
In the ever-evolving world of finance, researchers and analysts constantly seek out new and innovative indicators to gauge the movements of stock prices. From the classic methods of fundamental and technical analysis to the more esoteric realms of sentiment analysis and macroeconomic trends, the quest for market insights knows no bounds. One might say it's a bit like trying to find the perfect pitch in a cacophony of financial data.
Amidst this grand symphony of economic metrics, our study takes a unique turn by exploring a connection that may appear as harmonious as a collision between a tuba and a piccolo: the correlation between the number of musicians in Nebraska and the stock price of Mizuho Financial Group (MFG). Now, before you start thinking we've stumbled into a financial satire, bear with us – the findings are certainly worth a jazz hand or two.
While this unlikely correlation may prompt more eyebrow raises than a bassoon solo at a heavy metal concert, our research, like a diligent musical conductor, orchestrates insights from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv) to unveil a relationship deserving of further investigation. Like a musician picking up a new instrument to expand their repertoire, we've ventured into uncharted territory to uncover potential correlations that may strike a chord in the corridors of finance.
So, without further ado, let's tune our instruments and embark on this melodic journey of uncovering the unexpected interplay between Nebraska's melodies and Mizuho's moolah. Sit back, relax, and prepare for a symphony of statistical analysis that might just leave you tapping your feet – or at the very least, nodding your head in bemused curiosity.
With that said, let's dive into the methodology behind this puzzling yet captivating financial serenade. But don't worry – we promise to keep the saxophone solos to a minimum.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]

ChatGPT:
[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]

At the intersection of music and finance, our study waltzes into uncharted territory, much like a trombone player at a ballet recital. While the connection between the number of musicians in Nebraska and Mizuho Financial Group's (MFG) stock price may seem as unlikely as a ukulele in a heavy metal band, our findings unveil a correlation worth more than a few high notes.

In "The Symphony of Stock Prices" by Smith et al., the authors explore the impact of unusual indicators on financial markets, including the potential influence of cultural and artistic factors. While they may not have specifically mentioned the harmonious tunes of Nebraska's musicians, the underlying theme of unexpected correlations resonates with our own findings.

Doe's study, "Melodies and the Market: Uncovering Unconventional Correlations," takes a deep dive into the world of non-traditional indicators for stock price movements. While Doe's work focuses more on the likes of coffee consumption and shoe sales, the underlying principle of seeking out unconventional connections is akin to our pursuit of melodies from the Midwest impacting Mizuho's moolah.

As we traverse the realms of both real and fictional literature, "The Wealthy Musician's Guide to Stock Trading" by John Jones provides an unlikely yet strangely relevant perspective on our research topic. While the book may offer more advice on diversifying portfolios through investments in music royalties, the overarching theme of intertwining music and money adds a whimsical layer to our exploration.

Turning to fictional works, "The Stock Market Symphony" by A. H. Investor and "Songs of Stocks and Bonds" by P. Financialnovel both offer fictitious tales of financial intrigue interwoven with musical motifs. Although these novels may not hold direct relevance to our empirical findings, their existence in the literary world serves as a testament to the enduring fascination with harmonizing finance and music.

In the realm of board games, the classic "Monopoly" inadvertently teaches players about the intricacies of property investment and financial competition – albeit with a distinct lack of musical accompaniment. Imagine a version of "Monotony" where players trade saxophones and violins instead of properties; now there's a game that could strike a chord with our research theme.

As we meander through this symphony of literary references, it becomes evident that the fusion of music and finance is not merely a one-note concept, but a rich tapestry of interdisciplinary potential. So, grab your batons and tuning forks, we're about to embark on an academic encore that promises more twists and turns than a saxophone solo at a square dance.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a goofy academic researcher writing an academic paper. You follow the rules, but you throw out convention regularly to make jokes and funny asides.You draft the discussion section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the discussion section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between The number of musicians in Nebraska and Mizuho Financial Group's stock price (MFG). Make lots of jokes, goofy observations, and puns. Stay serious and dry most of the time, but then occasionally let your wit shine through.

Limit your response to 500 tokens.

Here are the title, abstract, literature review, and results sections. Please harken back to 1-2 of the goofy items in the literature review, but pretend to take them completely seriously. Discuss how your results supported the prior research.

Do not write a conclusion. I will add a conclusion after this.

[[TITLE]]
Strummin' and Succeedin': The Link Between Nebraska Musicians and Mizuho's Moolah

[[ABSTRACT]]
This study delves into an unconventional connection between the number of musicians in Nebraska and the stock price of Mizuho Financial Group (MFG). Despite being as unexpected as finding a kazoo in a symphony orchestra, our research uncovered a surprising correlation. Utilizing data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv), our findings revealed a correlation coefficient of 0.6553510 and p < 0.01 for the period spanning from 2007 to 2022. This discovery may seem more peculiar than a saxophone playing in a string quartet, but it emphasizes the potential impact of seemingly unrelated factors on financial markets. So, next time you're analyzing stock trends, don't forget to check the number of guitarists in Omaha!

[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]
At the intersection of music and finance, our study waltzes into uncharted territory, much like a trombone player at a ballet recital. While the connection between the number of musicians in Nebraska and Mizuho Financial Group's (MFG) stock price may seem as unlikely as a ukulele in a heavy metal band, our findings unveil a correlation worth more than a few high notes.
In "The Symphony of Stock Prices" by Smith et al., the authors explore the impact of unusual indicators on financial markets, including the potential influence of cultural and artistic factors. While they may not have specifically mentioned the harmonious tunes of Nebraska's musicians, the underlying theme of unexpected correlations resonates with our own findings.
Doe's study, "Melodies and the Market: Uncovering Unconventional Correlations," takes a deep dive into the world of non-traditional indicators for stock price movements. While Doe's work focuses more on the likes of coffee consumption and shoe sales, the underlying principle of seeking out unconventional connections is akin to our pursuit of melodies from the Midwest impacting Mizuho's moolah.
As we traverse the realms of both real and fictional literature, "The Wealthy Musician's Guide to Stock Trading" by John Jones provides an unlikely yet strangely relevant perspective on our research topic. While the book may offer more advice on diversifying portfolios through investments in music royalties, the overarching theme of intertwining music and money adds a whimsical layer to our exploration.
Turning to fictional works, "The Stock Market Symphony" by A. H. Investor and "Songs of Stocks and Bonds" by P. Financialnovel both offer fictitious tales of financial intrigue interwoven with musical motifs. Although these novels may not hold direct relevance to our empirical findings, their existence in the literary world serves as a testament to the enduring fascination with harmonizing finance and music.
In the realm of board games, the classic "Monopoly" inadvertently teaches players about the intricacies of property investment and financial competition – albeit with a distinct lack of musical accompaniment. Imagine a version of "Monotony" where players trade saxophones and violins instead of properties; now there's a game that could strike a chord with our research theme.
As we meander through this symphony of literary references, it becomes evident that the fusion of music and finance is not merely a one-note concept, but a rich tapestry of interdisciplinary potential. So, grab your batons and tuning forks, we're about to embark on an academic encore that promises more twists and turns than a saxophone solo at a square dance.

[[RESULTS]]
Our analysis of the correlation between the number of musicians in Nebraska and the stock price of Mizuho Financial Group (MFG) produced some intriguing results. From 2007 to 2022, we observed a correlation coefficient of 0.6553510, indicating a moderately strong positive relationship between these seemingly disparate variables. This connection was further supported by an r-squared value of 0.4294850, suggesting that approximately 43% of the variance in MFG stock price can be explained by the number of musicians in Nebraska.
To put it in musical terms, the correlation between these two factors was not just a one-note wonder; it displayed a substantial degree of association, much like a well-coordinated symphony orchestra.
The significance level of our findings was also notable, as denoted by a p-value of less than 0.01. This indicates that the likelihood of observing such a strong relationship between these variables by chance alone is quite slim, akin to stumbling upon a professional yodeler in downtown Tokyo – highly improbable, to say the least.
To visually capture the essence of this striking correlation, we present Fig. 1, a scatterplot that showcases the considerable alignment between the number of musicians in Nebraska and the stock price of Mizuho Financial Group. It's almost as visually harmonious as a group of musicians playing the same melody in perfect unison – a rare and delightful sight indeed.
These results underscore the potential influence of non-traditional indicators on financial markets, challenging conventional wisdom and providing a fresh perspective on the interplay between music and money. While this correlation may seem as unexpected as a cow playing the cowbell in a jazz band, it encourages us to consider the broader spectrum of influences shaping stock prices.
In conclusion, our findings not only hit all the right notes but also compose a compelling argument for further exploration into the peculiar fusion of Nebraska's musical scene and Mizuho's financial performance. It's a discovery that resonates louder than a drumroll in a quiet library, leaving us eager to unravel more melodious mysteries in the realm of finance.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[DISCUSSION]]

ChatGPT:

[[DISCUSSION]]

Our study strummed into uncharted financial territories, uncovering a surprising link between the number of musicians in Nebraska and Mizuho Financial Group's (MFG) stock price. It may sound as peculiar as a banjo at a techno rave, but our findings align with previous research that has delved into the influence of unconventional indicators on stock prices.

The insights from Smith et al.'s "The Symphony of Stock Prices" harmonize with our own discoveries, emphasizing the potential impact of cultural and artistic factors on financial markets. While they may not have specifically mentioned the harmonious tunes of Nebraska's musicians, the underlying theme of unexpected correlations resonated with our own findings, much like a perfect cadence in music.

Similarly, Doe's exploration of non-traditional indicators for stock price movements offers a relevant perspective. Although Doe's work focuses more on the likes of coffee consumption and shoe sales, the overarching principle of seeking out unconventional connections resonates with our pursuit of uncovering melodies from the Midwest affecting Mizuho's moolah. It's like finding the right key in a musical composition – a perfect fit that you never knew you needed.

Our statistical analysis further solidifies this correlation, revealing a moderate positive relationship between the number of musicians in Nebraska and MFG stock price. This connection was not just a one-note wonder; it was a well-coordinated symphony orchestra, showcasing a substantial degree of association between these seemingly disparate variables. It's as if the financial markets were conducting a secret jam session with Nebraska's music scene.

The significance level of our findings, indicated by a p-value of less than 0.01, speaks volumes about the improbability of observing such a strong relationship by chance alone. It's like stumbling upon a harmonica player in a heavy metal band – a rare and unexpected occurrence that defies conventional expectations.

Overall, our results provide compelling evidence for the potential influence of non-traditional indicators on financial markets. It's a discovery that strikes a chord louder than a bassoon in a rock concert, encouraging further exploration into the enigmatic fusion of Nebraska's musical landscape and Mizuho's financial performance. As we continue our symphonic journey through the world of finance, it's clear that there's more to this melody than meets the eye – or the ear.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a goofy academic researcher writing an academic paper. You follow the rules, but you throw out convention regularly to make jokes and funny asides.You draft the discussion section of goofy academic research papers that sounds like it belongs based on the title and abstract provided.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up a short conclusion of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between The number of musicians in Nebraska and Mizuho Financial Group's stock price (MFG). Make lots of jokes, goofy observations, and puns. Stay serious and dry most of the time, but then occasionally let your wit shine through.

Limit your response to 300 tokens. At the very end, assert that no more research is needed in this area.

Here are the title, abstract, introduction, and results sections.
[[TITLE]]
Strummin' and Succeedin': The Link Between Nebraska Musicians and Mizuho's Moolah

[[ABSTRACT]]
This study delves into an unconventional connection between the number of musicians in Nebraska and the stock price of Mizuho Financial Group (MFG). Despite being as unexpected as finding a kazoo in a symphony orchestra, our research uncovered a surprising correlation. Utilizing data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv), our findings revealed a correlation coefficient of 0.6553510 and p < 0.01 for the period spanning from 2007 to 2022. This discovery may seem more peculiar than a saxophone playing in a string quartet, but it emphasizes the potential impact of seemingly unrelated factors on financial markets. So, next time you're analyzing stock trends, don't forget to check the number of guitarists in Omaha!

[[INTRDUCTION]]
In the ever-evolving world of finance, researchers and analysts constantly seek out new and innovative indicators to gauge the movements of stock prices. From the classic methods of fundamental and technical analysis to the more esoteric realms of sentiment analysis and macroeconomic trends, the quest for market insights knows no bounds. One might say it's a bit like trying to find the perfect pitch in a cacophony of financial data.
Amidst this grand symphony of economic metrics, our study takes a unique turn by exploring a connection that may appear as harmonious as a collision between a tuba and a piccolo: the correlation between the number of musicians in Nebraska and the stock price of Mizuho Financial Group (MFG). Now, before you start thinking we've stumbled into a financial satire, bear with us – the findings are certainly worth a jazz hand or two.
While this unlikely correlation may prompt more eyebrow raises than a bassoon solo at a heavy metal concert, our research, like a diligent musical conductor, orchestrates insights from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv) to unveil a relationship deserving of further investigation. Like a musician picking up a new instrument to expand their repertoire, we've ventured into uncharted territory to uncover potential correlations that may strike a chord in the corridors of finance.
So, without further ado, let's tune our instruments and embark on this melodic journey of uncovering the unexpected interplay between Nebraska's melodies and Mizuho's moolah. Sit back, relax, and prepare for a symphony of statistical analysis that might just leave you tapping your feet – or at the very least, nodding your head in bemused curiosity.
With that said, let's dive into the methodology behind this puzzling yet captivating financial serenade. But don't worry – we promise to keep the saxophone solos to a minimum.

[[RESULTS]]
Our analysis of the correlation between the number of musicians in Nebraska and the stock price of Mizuho Financial Group (MFG) produced some intriguing results. From 2007 to 2022, we observed a correlation coefficient of 0.6553510, indicating a moderately strong positive relationship between these seemingly disparate variables. This connection was further supported by an r-squared value of 0.4294850, suggesting that approximately 43% of the variance in MFG stock price can be explained by the number of musicians in Nebraska.
To put it in musical terms, the correlation between these two factors was not just a one-note wonder; it displayed a substantial degree of association, much like a well-coordinated symphony orchestra.
The significance level of our findings was also notable, as denoted by a p-value of less than 0.01. This indicates that the likelihood of observing such a strong relationship between these variables by chance alone is quite slim, akin to stumbling upon a professional yodeler in downtown Tokyo – highly improbable, to say the least.
To visually capture the essence of this striking correlation, we present Fig. 1, a scatterplot that showcases the considerable alignment between the number of musicians in Nebraska and the stock price of Mizuho Financial Group. It's almost as visually harmonious as a group of musicians playing the same melody in perfect unison – a rare and delightful sight indeed.
These results underscore the potential influence of non-traditional indicators on financial markets, challenging conventional wisdom and providing a fresh perspective on the interplay between music and money. While this correlation may seem as unexpected as a cow playing the cowbell in a jazz band, it encourages us to consider the broader spectrum of influences shaping stock prices.
In conclusion, our findings not only hit all the right notes but also compose a compelling argument for further exploration into the peculiar fusion of Nebraska's musical scene and Mizuho's financial performance. It's a discovery that resonates louder than a drumroll in a quiet library, leaving us eager to unravel more melodious mysteries in the realm of finance.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[CONCLUSION]]

ChatGPT:

[[CONCLUSION]]

In the crescendo of our research, we've harmonized the seemingly discordant realms of Nebraska's musical heartbeat and Mizuho Financial Group's stock price, revealing a correlation that's as surprising as finding a kazoo in a symphony orchestra. This correlation may initially appear more out of place than a banjo at a techno rave, but our findings speak volumes. The moderately strong positive relationship we discovered, akin to a well-orchestrated symphony, challenges conventional financial analyses and underscores the potential impact of unconventional factors on market dynamics. With a correlation coefficient of 0.6553510 and an r-squared value of 0.4294850, it's clear that this unique interplay between music and moolah is no one-hit wonder.

The significance of our results, coupled with a p-value of less than 0.01, highlights the unlikelihood of stumbling upon such a correlation by chance alone – a revelation as improbable as witnessing a professional yodeler in downtown Tokyo. Our scatterplot visually captures this unlikely harmony, serving as a rhythmic reminder that in the melodic medley of financial indicators, Nebraska's musicians play a surprising solo.

From a practical standpoint, these findings nudge us to expand our analytic repertoire, urging financial aficionados to consider the broader symphony of influences shaping stock prices. Our research, like a curious bassoon solo at a heavy metal concert, encourages further exploration into the uncharted territory of non-traditional indicators, reminding us that the world of finance is a veritable smorgasbord of unexpected correlations and melodies.

In conclusion, our study sings a compelling tune: the connection between Nebraska's musical cadence and Mizuho's financial performance is a captivating serenade that warrants further investigation. However, much like a perfectly timed drum fill, we assert that no more research is needed in this area.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide fictional names of academic journals. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide the name of a funny but plausible sounding research, scientific, or academic journal that would publish a paper entited Strummin' and Succeedin': The Link Between Nebraska Musicians and Mizuho's Moolah. Respond only with the name of a fictional academic journal.

ChatGPT:

Journal of Melodic Finance

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide fictional names of nonprofit research organizations and associations. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide the name of a funny but plausible sounding nonprofit, academic, or scientific association or organization that would sponsor research that resulted in a paper entited Strummin' and Succeedin': The Link Between Nebraska Musicians and Mizuho's Moolah. Respond only with the name of a fictional organization.

ChatGPT:

The Center for Sonic Eclecticism

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide potential search keywords separated by commas. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide potential search keywords for a paper titled Strummin' and Succeedin': The Link Between Nebraska Musicians and Mizuho's Moolah with an abstract of This study delves into an unconventional connection between the number of musicians in Nebraska and the stock price of Mizuho Financial Group (MFG). Despite being as unexpected as finding a kazoo in a symphony orchestra, our research uncovered a surprising correlation. Utilizing data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv), our findings revealed a correlation coefficient of 0.6553510 and p < 0.01 for the period spanning from 2007 to 2022. This discovery may seem more peculiar than a saxophone playing in a string quartet, but it emphasizes the potential impact of seemingly unrelated factors on financial markets. So, next time you're analyzing stock trends, don't forget to check the number of guitarists in Omaha!

ChatGPT:

Nebraska musicians, Mizuho Financial Group, MFG stock price, correlation, unconventional connections, Bureau of Labor Statistics, LSEG Analytics, Refinitiv, financial markets, stock trends

*There is a bunch of Python happening behind the scenes to turn this prompt sequence into a PDF.

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Data details

The number of musicians in Nebraska
Detailed data title: BLS estimate of musicians and singers in Nebraska
Source: Bureau of Larbor Statistics
See what else correlates with The number of musicians in Nebraska

Mizuho Financial Group's stock price (MFG)
Detailed data title: Opening price of Mizuho Financial Group (MFG) on the first trading day of the year
Source: LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv)
Additional Info: ^{See full details} Via Microsoft Excel Stockhistory function

See what else correlates with Mizuho Financial Group's stock price (MFG)

Correlation r = 0.6553510 (Pearson correlation coefficient)
Correlation is a measure of how much the variables move together. If it is 0.99, when one goes up the other goes up. If it is 0.02, the connection is very weak or non-existent. If it is -0.99, then when one goes up the other goes down. If it is 1.00, you probably messed up your correlation function.

r² = 0.4294850 (Coefficient of determination)
This means 42.9% of the change in the one variable (i.e., Mizuho Financial Group's stock price (MFG)) is predictable based on the change in the other (i.e., The number of musicians in Nebraska) over the 16 years from 2007 through 2022.

p < 0.01, which is statistically significant(Null hypothesis significance test)
The p-value is 0.0059.^Show 0.0058542705928861650000000000
The p-value is a measure of how probable it is that we would randomly find a result this extreme.^Note More specifically the p-value is a measure of how probable it is that we would randomly find a result this extreme if we had only tested one pair of variables one time.

But I am a p-villain. I absolutely did not test only one pair of variables one time. I correlated hundreds of millions of pairs of variables. I threw boatloads of data into an industrial-sized blender to find this correlation.

Who is going to stop me? p-value reporting doesn't require me to report how many calculations I had to go through in order to find a low p-value!
On average, you will find a correaltion as strong as 0.66 in 0.59% of random cases. Said differently, if you correlated 171 random variables^Note Which I absolutely did.
with the same 15 degrees of freedom, ^Note Degrees of freedom is a measure of how many free components we are testing. In this case it is 15 because we have two variables measured over a period of 16 years. It's just the number of years minus ( the number of variables minus one ), which in this case simplifies to the number of years minus one.
you would randomly expect to find a correlation as strong as this one.

[ 0.24, 0.87 ] 95% correlation confidence interval (using the Fisher z-transformation)
^{Read more about the confidence interval} The confidence interval is an estimate the range of the value of the correlation coefficient, using the correlation itself as an input. The values are meant to be the low and high end of the correlation coefficient with 95% confidence.

This one is a bit more complciated than the other calculations, but I include it because many people have been pushing for confidence intervals instead of p-value calculations (for example: NEJM. However, if you are dredging data, you can reliably find yourself in the 5%. That's my goal!

All values for the years included above: ^Note If I were being very sneaky, I could trim years from the beginning or end of the datasets to increase the correlation on some pairs of variables. I don't do that because there are already plenty of correlations in my database without monkeying with the years.

Still, sometimes one of the variables has more years of data available than the other. This page only shows the overlapping years. To see all the years, click on "See what else correlates with..." link above.

	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
The number of musicians in Nebraska (Musicians And Singers)	260	260	220	290	210	220	130	210	180	220	150	150	330	280	210	250
Mizuho Financial Group's stock price (MFG) (Stock price)	14.55	9.54	6.67	3.56	3.79	2.72	3.75	4.35	3.39	3.97	3.57	3.66	29.8	30.8	2.56	2.56

Why this works

Data dredging: I have 25,153 variables in my database. I compare all these variables against each other to find ones that randomly match up. That's 632,673,409 correlation calculations! This is called “data dredging.” Instead of starting with a hypothesis and testing it, I instead abused the data to see what correlations shake out. It’s a dangerous way to go about analysis, because any sufficiently large dataset will yield strong correlations completely at random.
Lack of causal connection: There is probably^Note Because these pages are automatically generated, it's possible that the two variables you are viewing are in fact causually related. I take steps to prevent the obvious ones from showing on the site (I don't let data about the weather in one city correlate with the weather in a neighboring city, for example), but sometimes they still pop up. If they are related, cool! You found a loophole.
no direct connection between these variables, despite what the AI says above. This is exacerbated by the fact that I used "Years" as the base variable. Lots of things happen in a year that are not related to each other! Most studies would use something like "one person" in stead of "one year" to be the "thing" studied.
Observations not independent: For many variables, sequential years are not independent of each other. If a population of people is continuously doing something every day, there is no reason to think they would suddenly change how they are doing that thing on January 1. A simple^Note Personally I don't find any p-value calculation to be 'simple,' but you know what I mean.
p-value calculation does not take this into account, so mathematically it appears less probable than it really is.
Y-axis doesn't start at zero: I truncated the Y-axes of the graph above. I also used a line graph, which makes the visual connection stand out more than it deserves. ^Note Nothing against line graphs. They are great at telling a story when you have linear data! But visually it is deceptive because the only data is at the points on the graph, not the lines on the graph. In between each point, the data could have been doing anything. Like going for a random walk by itself!
Mathematically what I showed is true, but it is intentionally misleading. Below is the same chart but with both Y-axes starting at zero.

Try it yourself

You can calculate the values on this page on your own! Try running the Python code to see the calculation results. ^{Show the steps to do this.} Step 1: Download and install Python on your computer.

Step 2: Open a plaintext editor like Notepad and paste the code below into it.

Step 3: Save the file as "calculate_correlation.py" in a place you will remember, like your desktop. Copy the file location to your clipboard. On Windows, you can right-click the file and click "Properties," and then copy what comes after "Location:" As an example, on my computer the location is "C:\Users\tyler\Desktop"

Step 4: Open a command line window. For example, by pressing start and typing "cmd" and them pressing enter.

Step 5: Install the required modules by typing "pip install numpy", then pressing enter, then typing "pip install scipy", then pressing enter.

Step 6: Navigate to the location where you saved the Python file by using the "cd" command. For example, I would type "cd C:\Users\tyler\Desktop" and push enter.

Step 7: Run the Python script by typing "python calculate_correlation.py"

If you run into any issues, I suggest asking ChatGPT to walk you through installing Python and running the code below on your system. Try this question:

"Walk me through installing Python on my computer to run a script that uses scipy and numpy. Go step-by-step and ask me to confirm before moving on. Start by asking me questions about my operating system so that you know how to proceed. Assume I want the simplest installation with the latest version of Python and that I do not currently have any of the necessary elements installed. Remember to only give me one step per response and confirm I have done it before proceeding."

# These modules make it easier to perform the calculation
import numpy as np
from scipy import stats

# We'll define a function that we can call to return the correlation calculations
def calculate_correlation(array1, array2):

    # Calculate Pearson correlation coefficient and p-value
    correlation, p_value = stats.pearsonr(array1, array2)

    # Calculate R-squared as the square of the correlation coefficient
    r_squared = correlation**2

    return correlation, r_squared, p_value

# These are the arrays for the variables shown on this page, but you can modify them to be any two sets of numbers
array_1 = np.array([260,260,220,290,210,220,130,210,180,220,150,150,330,280,210,250,])
array_2 = np.array([14.55,9.54,6.67,3.56,3.79,2.72,3.75,4.35,3.39,3.97,3.57,3.66,29.8,30.8,2.56,2.56,])
array_1_name = "The number of musicians in Nebraska"
array_2_name = "Mizuho Financial Group's stock price (MFG)"

# Perform the calculation
print(f"Calculating the correlation between {array_1_name} and {array_2_name}...")
correlation, r_squared, p_value = calculate_correlation(array_1, array_2)

# Print the results
print("Correlation Coefficient:", correlation)
print("R-squared:", r_squared)
print("P-value:", p_value)

Reuseable content

You may re-use the images on this page for any purpose, even commercial purposes, without asking for permission. The only requirement is that you attribute Tyler Vigen. ^Note Attribution can take many different forms. If you leave the "tylervigen.com" link in the image, that satisfies it just fine. If you remove it and move it to a footnote, that's fine too. You can also just write "Charts courtesy of Tyler Vigen" at the bottom of an article.

You do not need to attribute "the spurious correlations website," and you don't even need to link here if you don't want to. I don't gain anything from pageviews. There are no ads on this site, there is nothing for sale, and I am not for hire.

For the record, I am just one person. Tyler Vigen, he/him/his. I do have degrees, but they should not go after my name unless you want to annoy my wife. If that is your goal, then go ahead and cite me as "Tyler Vigen, A.A. A.A.S. B.A. J.D." Otherwise it is just "Tyler Vigen."

When spoken, my last name is pronounced "vegan," like I don't eat meat.

Full license details.
For more on re-use permissions, or to get a signed release form, see tylervigen.com/permission.

Download images for these variables:

High resolution line chart ^Note The image linked here is a Scalable Vector Graphic (SVG). It is the highest resolution that is possible to achieve. It scales up beyond the size of the observable universe without pixelating. You do not need to email me asking if I have a higher resolution image. I do not. The physical limitations of our universe prevent me from providing you with an image that is any higher resolution than this one.

If you insert it into a PowerPoint presentation (a tool well-known for managing things that are the scale of the universe), you can right-click > "Ungroup" or "Create Shape" and then edit the lines and text directly. You can also change the colors this way.

Alternatively you can use a tool like Inkscape.
High resolution line chart, optimized for mobile
Alternative high resolution line chart
Scatterplot
Portable line chart (png)
Portable line chart (png), optimized for mobile
Line chart for only The number of musicians in Nebraska
Line chart for only Mizuho Financial Group's stock price (MFG)
AI-generated correlation image
The spurious research paper: Strummin' and Succeedin': The Link Between Nebraska Musicians and Mizuho's Moolah

View another random correlation

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Correlation ID: 3376 · Black Variable ID: 10922 · Red Variable ID: 1751


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