Spurious correlation #3,205 · View random
A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is Popularity of the first name Lesley and the second variable is Air pollution in Birmingham. The chart goes from 1980 to 2022, and the two variables track closely in value over that time.

A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is Popularity of the first name Lesley and the second variable is Air pollution in Birmingham. The chart goes from 1980 to 2022, and the two variables track closely in value over that time.

Download png, svg

AI explanation

There was a Lesley Lovers Club in Birmingham that held daily parades in honor of anyone with that name, but when the club disbanded, so did the daily confetti and balloon releases, leading to a noticeable improvement in air quality.

^{Show image generation prompt} Model: dalle-3
Prompt: Create an image of a bustling city street in Birmingham, UK with fewer people than usual. The cityscape should be visible, with fewer individuals named Lesley or any variations thereof. The scene should show clearer streets and fresher air, symbolizing the decrease in pollution due to the scarcity of "Less-Leys." The image should emphasize the positive impact of this phenomenon on the environment. The depiction should include only scenes, people, and objects, it should not include text or speech bubbles.

This image generation prompt was also generated by AI, using the following sequence:

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You select one of a few potential scene descriptors that seems to go along with the variables described. You respond only with the scene descriptions provided and say nothing else.
User prompt: Here are two variables: Popularity of the first name Lesley and Air pollution in Birmingham. Given these, which of the following image style descriptions seems most appropriate? Pick the one that seems to be related to one of the variables at hand. Please respond with only one of the following potential descriptions: Magic realism Brutalism Low poly An image that looks like it is a scene from 'Star Wars' A TIME magazine cover image
ChatGPT: A TIME magazine cover image

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You describe simple visual scenes that depict the two variables stated. You combine both variables into one scene.
User prompt: Please describe a visual scene that prominently depicts both Popularity of the first name Lesley and Air pollution in Birmingham, in the following situation: Because fewer parents named their child Lesley, there were fewer "Less-Leys" in Birmingham. This led to less "L-eslying" around, and with fewer people "Les-Laying" around, there was less air being "Les-Layed" out and polluted! So, as the popularity of the name Lesley decreased, the air pollution in Birmingham also decreased - all thanks to some "Less-Leys"!. Keep the description simple.
ChatGPT: In Birmingham, there are fewer people with the name Lesley, so there are also fewer "Less-Leys" around. As a result, there is less "L-eslying" and "Les-Laying" happening, leading to less air being "Les-Layed" out and polluted. The streets are clearer and the air is fresher, thanks to the decrease in "Less-Leys."

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You write and improve image generation prompts for DALLE-3. You maintain the same subjects, but enhance the visuals.
User prompt: Please respond with an image generation prompt that would be likely to create an interesting visual using DALLE-3, using the following style: [ A TIME magazine cover image ] and depicting this scene: In Birmingham, there are fewer people with the name Lesley, so there are also fewer "Less-Leys" around. As a result, there is less "L-eslying" and "Les-Laying" happening, leading to less air being "Les-Layed" out and polluted. The streets are clearer and the air is fresher, thanks to the decrease in "Less-Leys." Keep the visual depiction simple. Do not include any words or speech bubbles.
ChatGPT: Create an image of a bustling city street in Birmingham, UK with fewer people than usual. The cityscape should be visible, with fewer individuals named Lesley or any variations thereof. The scene should show clearer streets and fresher air, symbolizing the decrease in pollution due to the scarcity of "Less-Leys." The image should emphasize the positive impact of this phenomenon on the environment.

*Variations in the User Prompts from chart to chart are just the result of random number generation in Python. I wrote a few arrays of various styles and methods to ask questions to change up the results. Every time this site writes an explanation or generates an image, the script picks from each at random.

I sequence the requests into multiple prompts because I find GPT 3.5 to perform much better with short, well-managed contexts. Thus, I track the context directly in Python and only ask ChatGPT targeted questions.
^{Show prompt for explanation} Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106 (fine-tuned)
System prompt: You provide humorous responses in the form of plausible sounding explanations for correlations. You assume the correlation is causative for the purpose of the explanation even if it is ridiculous. You do not chat with the user, you only reply with the causal connection explanation and nothing else.
User prompt: Please make up a funny explanation for how a decrease in Popularity of the first name Lesley caused Air pollution in Birmingham to decrease.

AI academic paper

(Because p < 0.01)

The Lesley Effect: A Breath of Fresh Air or a Cloud of Pollution?

Journal of Environmental Psychology

Jan 2024

Reminder: This paper is AI-generated. Not real!

^{Show prompt used to generate this paper} Quick note: This sequence is long and repetitive. That's how the prompt engineering works for this one. I manage the output in Python to format it into this PDF.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a goofy academic researcher writing an academic paper. You follow the rules, but you throw out convention regularly to make jokes and funny asides.You draft a literature review section of an academic research paper, that starts out dry for the first few sentences but then becomes hilarious and goofy.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up a literature review section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Popularity of the first name Lesley and Air pollution in Birmingham. You can't resist a good dad joke. Add a relevant dad joke related to the content every couple of sentences.

Speak in the present tense for this section (the authors find...), as is common in academic research paper literature reviews. Name the sources in a format similar to this: In "Book," the authors find lorem and ipsum.

Make up the lorem and ipsum part, but make it sound related to the topic at hand.

Start by naming serious-sounding studies by authors like Smith, Doe, and Jones - but then quickly devolve. Name some real non-fiction books that would be related to the topic. Then name some real fiction books that sound like they could be related. Then devolve ever further, and mention something completely ridiculous, like you conducted literature review by reading the backs of shampoo bottles.

Here is the title and abstract of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
The Lesley Effect: A Breath of Fresh Air or a Cloud of Pollution?

[[ABSTRACT]]
In this research paper, we delve into the curious connection between the popularity of the first name Lesley and the levels of air pollution in the charming city of Birmingham. Utilizing data from the US Social Security Administration and the Environmental Protection Agency, we aimed to answer the burning question: Does the frequency of the name Lesley in Birmingham have any discernible impact on air quality, or is it all just hot air?

Our findings revealed a statistically significant correlation coefficient of 0.7143131 and a p-value of less than 0.01, spanning the years from 1980 to 2022. This suggests that there is indeed a noteworthy relationship between the two variables, prompting us to ponder whether there might be more than meets the eye behind the name Lesley.

While causation cannot be inferred from this correlation, these results open up a window of opportunity for further investigation into the mechanisms by which Lesleys, perhaps unknowingly, influence the environmental dynamics of Birmingham. After all, it may just be the breath of fresh air the city needs. Ultimately, whether it's due to their elevated charm or simply a cosmic coincidence, the Lesleys seem to leave a lasting impression on both the social and environmental fabric of Birmingham – a phenomenon that certainly doesn't blow by unnoticed.

And remember, always take a moment to appreciate the Lesleys in your life, for they may just be clearing the air – quite literally.

-------

And here is the introduction section that led to this literature review:
[[INTRODUCTION]]
The influence of names on various aspects of life has long been a topic of interest, with studies exploring the impact of names on career success, relationships, and even health outcomes. In this vein, our research delves into the distinctive link between the prevalence of the first name Lesley and the levels of air pollution in the enchanting city of Birmingham. We affectionately refer to this peculiar phenomenon as “The Lesley Effect.” Now, before you jump to conclusions, no, this is not a study on the potential environmental impact of Lesley Knope’s waffle addiction in Pawnee, Indiana.
Curiosity piqued by the intersection of nomenclature and atmospheric quality, we embarked on a quest to uncover the potential relationship between Lesleys and air pollution, aiming to shed light on this unexplored correlation. As we delved into this endeavor, it became clear that we were about to enter uncharted territory in the world of environmental research – the land where the Lesleys roam.
Just like the old adage says, “What’s in a name?” our investigation sought to discern whether the frequency of the name Lesley in Birmingham played a role in shaping the urban air quality or if it was merely a whimsical happenstance. With the rise of urbanization and the growing focus on air quality, understanding any potential influencers, even ones as seemingly innocuous as first names, is of paramount importance. We're here to dig deeper and make you think twice the next time you bump into a Lesley on the streets of Birmingham. And don’t worry, your bad dad jokes can’t possibly compete with ours – we set the par-entheses high.
Before we reveal the results of our investigation, it’s worth noting that this study is not a reflection of any personal biases against or for the name Lesley. We assure you that our research is driven purely by scientific curiosity and has no intention of besmirching the good name of any Lesleys out there. We’re not here to name and shame but rather to name and acclaim. So, without further ado, let’s embark on this scholarly adventure through the name game and the air, all with a healthy dose of whimsy.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]

ChatGPT:
[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]

Prior research on the influence of personal names on environmental factors has primarily focused on more tangible variables, such as socioeconomic status and educational attainment. However, the connection between the frequency of the first name Lesley and air pollution levels in Birmingham has remained conspicuously absent from scholarly discourse. In "Smith et al.," the authors investigate the impact of first names on various life outcomes but unfortunately overlook the potential role of Lesleys in shaping urban air quality. Despite this oversight, our study endeavors to fill this gap in the literature and shed light on the Lesley Effect in all its enigmatic glory.

Now, you might be wondering, "What's in a name, anyway?" Well, according to "Doe and Johnson," the moniker a person carries may have overarching implications that extend beyond individual perception. The influence of names on societal dynamics has been explored, but the intersection with environmental phenomena is a path less traveled. So, here we are, venturing into uncharted territory – think of it as a scholarly safari through the urban jungle of Birmingham, with Lesleys as our elusive guides.

As we embark on this journey, it's important to acknowledge the role of air pollution in shaping public health and environmental sustainability. The detrimental effects of poor air quality on respiratory health and overall well-being are undeniably serious. However, "Jones et al." remind us that a little levity can go a long way in navigating the complexities of environmental research. After all, who's to say that a dash of whimsy won't help us uncover the quirky connection between Lesleys and air quality? And on the bright side, at least we can try to keep the atmosphere lighthearted amidst the haze of academic rigor.

Speaking of academic rigor, let's take a moment to ponder the intellectual musings of non-fiction authors who have delved into the realm of urban dynamics and environmental sociology. In "The Air We Breathe: A Societal Examination," Lorem Ipsum delves into the intricate web of factors contributing to air pollution, but alas, they omit any witty anecdotes involving Lesleys and their potential role in this complex interplay. However, we won't let that deter us from uncovering the truth behind the Lesley Effect.

Turning to the world of fiction, we encounter titles that seem to hint at a subtle affinity for the topic at hand, or perhaps we're just reading too much into things. "The Name Game: A Tale of Urban Intrigue" by Jane Austen and "Lesley’s Legacy: A Breath of Fresh Air" by Charles Dickens give a whimsical nod to the potential impact of names and their atmospheric consequences. While these works may not directly address the Lesley Effect, they certainly evoke a sense of curiosity and intrigue – not to mention, the pun potential is positively Dickensian.

Now, if you thought we were done with our literary odyssey, think again. In our unorthodox pursuit of knowledge, we cast a wide net in our quest for understanding. This included perusing the backs of shampoo bottles, in the hopes that a moment of cleansing contemplation might yield insights into the Lesley Effect. Alas, we discovered plenty of lather, rinse, repeat instructions, but the elusive connection between Lesleys and air pollution remained conspicuously absent. Nevertheless, we emerged from this endeavor with a newfound appreciation for the literary acumen of shampoo bottle copywriters.

So, whether it's scholarly publications or whimsical works of fiction, our journey through the annals of literature has brought us to the precipice of understanding the Lesley Effect. With a nod to academic rigor and a dusting of humor, we stand at the intersection of nomenclature and the atmosphere, ready to unravel the mystery behind the Lesleys and their atmospheric escapades. After all, when it comes to exploring the name game and the air, one must be prepared for an unexpected gust of whimsy.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a goofy academic researcher writing an academic paper. You follow the rules, but you throw out convention regularly to make jokes and funny asides.You draft the discussion section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the discussion section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Popularity of the first name Lesley and Air pollution in Birmingham. You can't resist a good dad joke. Add a relevant dad joke related to the content every couple of sentences. Stay serious and dry most of the time, but then occasionally let your wit shine through.

Limit your response to 500 tokens.

Here are the title, abstract, literature review, and results sections. Please harken back to 1-2 of the goofy items in the literature review, but pretend to take them completely seriously. Discuss how your results supported the prior research.

Do not write a conclusion. I will add a conclusion after this.

[[TITLE]]
The Lesley Effect: A Breath of Fresh Air or a Cloud of Pollution?

[[ABSTRACT]]
In this research paper, we delve into the curious connection between the popularity of the first name Lesley and the levels of air pollution in the charming city of Birmingham. Utilizing data from the US Social Security Administration and the Environmental Protection Agency, we aimed to answer the burning question: Does the frequency of the name Lesley in Birmingham have any discernible impact on air quality, or is it all just hot air?

Our findings revealed a statistically significant correlation coefficient of 0.7143131 and a p-value of less than 0.01, spanning the years from 1980 to 2022. This suggests that there is indeed a noteworthy relationship between the two variables, prompting us to ponder whether there might be more than meets the eye behind the name Lesley.

While causation cannot be inferred from this correlation, these results open up a window of opportunity for further investigation into the mechanisms by which Lesleys, perhaps unknowingly, influence the environmental dynamics of Birmingham. After all, it may just be the breath of fresh air the city needs. Ultimately, whether it's due to their elevated charm or simply a cosmic coincidence, the Lesleys seem to leave a lasting impression on both the social and environmental fabric of Birmingham – a phenomenon that certainly doesn't blow by unnoticed.

And remember, always take a moment to appreciate the Lesleys in your life, for they may just be clearing the air – quite literally.

[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]
Prior research on the influence of personal names on environmental factors has primarily focused on more tangible variables, such as socioeconomic status and educational attainment. However, the connection between the frequency of the first name Lesley and air pollution levels in Birmingham has remained conspicuously absent from scholarly discourse. In "Smith et al.," the authors investigate the impact of first names on various life outcomes but unfortunately overlook the potential role of Lesleys in shaping urban air quality. Despite this oversight, our study endeavors to fill this gap in the literature and shed light on the Lesley Effect in all its enigmatic glory.
Now, you might be wondering, "What's in a name, anyway?" Well, according to "Doe and Johnson," the moniker a person carries may have overarching implications that extend beyond individual perception. The influence of names on societal dynamics has been explored, but the intersection with environmental phenomena is a path less traveled. So, here we are, venturing into uncharted territory – think of it as a scholarly safari through the urban jungle of Birmingham, with Lesleys as our elusive guides.
As we embark on this journey, it's important to acknowledge the role of air pollution in shaping public health and environmental sustainability. The detrimental effects of poor air quality on respiratory health and overall well-being are undeniably serious. However, "Jones et al." remind us that a little levity can go a long way in navigating the complexities of environmental research. After all, who's to say that a dash of whimsy won't help us uncover the quirky connection between Lesleys and air quality? And on the bright side, at least we can try to keep the atmosphere lighthearted amidst the haze of academic rigor.
Speaking of academic rigor, let's take a moment to ponder the intellectual musings of non-fiction authors who have delved into the realm of urban dynamics and environmental sociology. In "The Air We Breathe: A Societal Examination," Lorem Ipsum delves into the intricate web of factors contributing to air pollution, but alas, they omit any witty anecdotes involving Lesleys and their potential role in this complex interplay. However, we won't let that deter us from uncovering the truth behind the Lesley Effect.
Turning to the world of fiction, we encounter titles that seem to hint at a subtle affinity for the topic at hand, or perhaps we're just reading too much into things. "The Name Game: A Tale of Urban Intrigue" by Jane Austen and "Lesley’s Legacy: A Breath of Fresh Air" by Charles Dickens give a whimsical nod to the potential impact of names and their atmospheric consequences. While these works may not directly address the Lesley Effect, they certainly evoke a sense of curiosity and intrigue – not to mention, the pun potential is positively Dickensian.
Now, if you thought we were done with our literary odyssey, think again. In our unorthodox pursuit of knowledge, we cast a wide net in our quest for understanding. This included perusing the backs of shampoo bottles, in the hopes that a moment of cleansing contemplation might yield insights into the Lesley Effect. Alas, we discovered plenty of lather, rinse, repeat instructions, but the elusive connection between Lesleys and air pollution remained conspicuously absent. Nevertheless, we emerged from this endeavor with a newfound appreciation for the literary acumen of shampoo bottle copywriters.
So, whether it's scholarly publications or whimsical works of fiction, our journey through the annals of literature has brought us to the precipice of understanding the Lesley Effect. With a nod to academic rigor and a dusting of humor, we stand at the intersection of nomenclature and the atmosphere, ready to unravel the mystery behind the Lesleys and their atmospheric escapades. After all, when it comes to exploring the name game and the air, one must be prepared for an unexpected gust of whimsy.

[[RESULTS]]
The analysis of the data revealed a statistically significant correlation between the prevalence of the first name Lesley and the levels of air pollution in Birmingham, with a correlation coefficient of 0.7143131, an r-squared value of 0.5102432, and a p-value of less than 0.01. Essentially, the data suggested a moderate to strong positive linear relationship between the frequency of the name Lesley and air pollution levels in Birmingham. This finding highlights the presence of the so-called "Lesley Effect" in the atmospheric composition of the city, and no, we're not talking about the lingering scent of lavender and vanilla perfume.
Fig. 1 presents a scatterplot illustrating the observed correlation, demonstrating a clear trend that as the popularity of the name Lesley increases, so does the level of air pollution in Birmingham. It's as if the Lesleys have a pivotal role in the ebb and flow of the city's air quality - quite the breath of fresh air in the world of research, wouldn't you say?
Now, these results may beg the question: are Lesleys emitting some kind of mystical air-quality-altering pheromones, or is this a mere statistical quirk? As much as we'd love to entertain the whimsical idea of Lesleys having the power to control the winds of change, it’s important to note that correlation does not imply causation. However, this intriguing correlation opens the door to a realm of possibilities, prompting further investigation into the mechanisms behind the Lesley Effect. Perhaps it's not just in the name, but in the air, or in the stars... or maybe in the giggles and mischief that often accompany the Lesleys of the world.
In any case, this correlation provides an impetus for future studies to delve into the underlying factors contributing to this relationship. Whether it’s a matter of societal influence, a cosmic alignment of coincidences, or an unforeseen environmental impact of the Lesleys, the next steps in research may shed light on this whimsical mystery, keeping academic curiosity a-breast of these peculiar findings.
In conclusion, the association between the first name Lesley and air pollution in Birmingham is one that invites further inquiry, perhaps even a breath of fresh research air. The Lesleys may hold the key to unlocking the secrets of Birmingham's atmospheric composition, and, in the spirit of inquiry, we urge researchers and enthusiasts alike to embrace the Lesley Effect, ponder its implications, and savor the light-hearted levity it brings to the world of environmental research.
And remember, when it comes to Lesleys, the findings may be a gas, but the research is nothing to sneeze at!

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[DISCUSSION]]

ChatGPT:

[[DISCUSSION]]

The results of this study align with prior research, offering compelling evidence for the existence of a noteworthy correlation between the prevalence of the first name Lesley and air pollution levels in Birmingham. The significant correlation coefficient further substantiates the presence of what we fondly refer to as the "Lesley Effect." It seems that the Lesleys of Birmingham may indeed hold sway over the city's atmospheric composition, prompting us to consider the potential implications of their influence.

Though causation cannot be inferred from this correlation, the findings invite a lighthearted exploration of the mechanisms underpinning the Lesley Effect. It's as if the Lesleys have blown into the air quality discourse with an unexpected gust of whimsy, weaving a tale that beckons further investigation. With a nod to statistical rigor, we must resist the temptation to jump to conclusions and instead embrace the ambiguity with a dash of scholarly humor.

In the spirit of diving into the nitty-gritty of environmental dynamics, let's not forget that every breath we take is fundamentally intertwined with the social and atmospheric tapestries of our environment. Much like a gentle breeze, the Lesley Effect invites us to ponder the ways in which seemingly unrelated factors can coalesce and exert influence on the world around us. After all, there's a certain charm to discovering uncharted territories in the realm of research, particularly when they involve the unexpected entanglement of names and air quality.

The intriguing correlation uncovered in this study not only underscores the need for further research but also encourages a broader perspective on the multifaceted interplay of individual, societal, and environmental factors. As we navigate the nuances of this peculiar correlation, it's essential to approach the investigation with academic rigor, tempered by an appreciation for the whimsical mysteries that unfold within the realm of scientific inquiry.

The Lesley Effect, with its enigmatic allure, beckons us to ponder the potential implications of this correlation, all while keeping a lighthearted perspective on the whimsical nature of scholarly exploration. It's not every day that one stumbles upon a statistical relationship that carries the subtle charm of a well-crafted pun – but here we are, embracing the unexpected in the name of inquiry.

So, as we tread the path of scholarly curiosity, let's not lose sight of the underlying humor and intrigue that accompany the Lesley Effect. After all, in the grand narrative of academic exploration, a touch of whimsy is the breath of fresh air we need to keep innovative research afloat.

Remember, when it comes to the Lesley Effect, there's more than meets the eye – and perhaps even more than meets the *air*!

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a goofy academic researcher writing an academic paper. You follow the rules, but you throw out convention regularly to make jokes and funny asides.You draft the discussion section of goofy academic research papers that sounds like it belongs based on the title and abstract provided.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up a short conclusion of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Popularity of the first name Lesley and Air pollution in Birmingham. You can't resist a good dad joke. Add a relevant dad joke related to the content every couple of sentences. Stay serious and dry most of the time, but then occasionally let your wit shine through.

Limit your response to 300 tokens. At the very end, assert that no more research is needed in this area.

Here are the title, abstract, introduction, and results sections.
[[TITLE]]
The Lesley Effect: A Breath of Fresh Air or a Cloud of Pollution?

[[ABSTRACT]]
In this research paper, we delve into the curious connection between the popularity of the first name Lesley and the levels of air pollution in the charming city of Birmingham. Utilizing data from the US Social Security Administration and the Environmental Protection Agency, we aimed to answer the burning question: Does the frequency of the name Lesley in Birmingham have any discernible impact on air quality, or is it all just hot air?

Our findings revealed a statistically significant correlation coefficient of 0.7143131 and a p-value of less than 0.01, spanning the years from 1980 to 2022. This suggests that there is indeed a noteworthy relationship between the two variables, prompting us to ponder whether there might be more than meets the eye behind the name Lesley.

While causation cannot be inferred from this correlation, these results open up a window of opportunity for further investigation into the mechanisms by which Lesleys, perhaps unknowingly, influence the environmental dynamics of Birmingham. After all, it may just be the breath of fresh air the city needs. Ultimately, whether it's due to their elevated charm or simply a cosmic coincidence, the Lesleys seem to leave a lasting impression on both the social and environmental fabric of Birmingham – a phenomenon that certainly doesn't blow by unnoticed.

And remember, always take a moment to appreciate the Lesleys in your life, for they may just be clearing the air – quite literally.

[[INTRDUCTION]]
The influence of names on various aspects of life has long been a topic of interest, with studies exploring the impact of names on career success, relationships, and even health outcomes. In this vein, our research delves into the distinctive link between the prevalence of the first name Lesley and the levels of air pollution in the enchanting city of Birmingham. We affectionately refer to this peculiar phenomenon as “The Lesley Effect.” Now, before you jump to conclusions, no, this is not a study on the potential environmental impact of Lesley Knope’s waffle addiction in Pawnee, Indiana.
Curiosity piqued by the intersection of nomenclature and atmospheric quality, we embarked on a quest to uncover the potential relationship between Lesleys and air pollution, aiming to shed light on this unexplored correlation. As we delved into this endeavor, it became clear that we were about to enter uncharted territory in the world of environmental research – the land where the Lesleys roam.
Just like the old adage says, “What’s in a name?” our investigation sought to discern whether the frequency of the name Lesley in Birmingham played a role in shaping the urban air quality or if it was merely a whimsical happenstance. With the rise of urbanization and the growing focus on air quality, understanding any potential influencers, even ones as seemingly innocuous as first names, is of paramount importance. We're here to dig deeper and make you think twice the next time you bump into a Lesley on the streets of Birmingham. And don’t worry, your bad dad jokes can’t possibly compete with ours – we set the par-entheses high.
Before we reveal the results of our investigation, it’s worth noting that this study is not a reflection of any personal biases against or for the name Lesley. We assure you that our research is driven purely by scientific curiosity and has no intention of besmirching the good name of any Lesleys out there. We’re not here to name and shame but rather to name and acclaim. So, without further ado, let’s embark on this scholarly adventure through the name game and the air, all with a healthy dose of whimsy.

[[RESULTS]]
The analysis of the data revealed a statistically significant correlation between the prevalence of the first name Lesley and the levels of air pollution in Birmingham, with a correlation coefficient of 0.7143131, an r-squared value of 0.5102432, and a p-value of less than 0.01. Essentially, the data suggested a moderate to strong positive linear relationship between the frequency of the name Lesley and air pollution levels in Birmingham. This finding highlights the presence of the so-called "Lesley Effect" in the atmospheric composition of the city, and no, we're not talking about the lingering scent of lavender and vanilla perfume.
Fig. 1 presents a scatterplot illustrating the observed correlation, demonstrating a clear trend that as the popularity of the name Lesley increases, so does the level of air pollution in Birmingham. It's as if the Lesleys have a pivotal role in the ebb and flow of the city's air quality - quite the breath of fresh air in the world of research, wouldn't you say?
Now, these results may beg the question: are Lesleys emitting some kind of mystical air-quality-altering pheromones, or is this a mere statistical quirk? As much as we'd love to entertain the whimsical idea of Lesleys having the power to control the winds of change, it’s important to note that correlation does not imply causation. However, this intriguing correlation opens the door to a realm of possibilities, prompting further investigation into the mechanisms behind the Lesley Effect. Perhaps it's not just in the name, but in the air, or in the stars... or maybe in the giggles and mischief that often accompany the Lesleys of the world.
In any case, this correlation provides an impetus for future studies to delve into the underlying factors contributing to this relationship. Whether it’s a matter of societal influence, a cosmic alignment of coincidences, or an unforeseen environmental impact of the Lesleys, the next steps in research may shed light on this whimsical mystery, keeping academic curiosity a-breast of these peculiar findings.
In conclusion, the association between the first name Lesley and air pollution in Birmingham is one that invites further inquiry, perhaps even a breath of fresh research air. The Lesleys may hold the key to unlocking the secrets of Birmingham's atmospheric composition, and, in the spirit of inquiry, we urge researchers and enthusiasts alike to embrace the Lesley Effect, ponder its implications, and savor the light-hearted levity it brings to the world of environmental research.
And remember, when it comes to Lesleys, the findings may be a gas, but the research is nothing to sneeze at!

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[CONCLUSION]]

ChatGPT:

[[CONCLUSION]]

In this study, we aimed to unravel the intriguing connection between the popularity of the first name Lesley and the levels of air pollution in the beguiling city of Birmingham. Our findings revealed a statistically significant correlation, showcasing a moderate to strong positive linear relationship between the frequency of the name Lesley and air pollution levels. It seems the Lesleys are making more than just waves in Birmingham – they're enhancing the air pollution panorama.

Now, to address the elephant in the room - or should we say, the Lesley in the room? - it's important to remember that correlation does not imply causation. While we jest about the Lesley Effect, there's still much to discover about its potential mechanisms, whether grounded in reality or the airy realm of whimsy. As we contemplate these findings, let's hold our breath for the potential future investigations that may help us unearth the mysteries behind the Lesley Effect, or at least give us some air apparent.

In conclusion, we recommend further exploration into this peculiar correlation, but let's not jump to conclusions – there's a fine line between scientific inquiry and flights of fancy. The Lesleys may hold the key to unlocking the secrets of Birmingham's atmospheric composition, and as this study draws to a close, we declare that the Lesley Effect is a phenomenon that beckons for more scrutiny, like a good mystery novel or a bag of air-chilled potato chips.

We assert that at the crossroads of nomenclature and atmospheric dynamics, the Lesleys may be blowing winds of change into the world of environmental research. And with that, we boldly proclaim: no further research is needed in this area. The Lesley Effect has been uncovered, leaving us breathless and in awe. Thank you, Lesleys, for the fresh air of discovery amidst the environmental pollution.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide fictional names of academic journals. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide the name of a funny but plausible sounding research, scientific, or academic journal that would publish a paper entited The Lesley Effect: A Breath of Fresh Air or a Cloud of Pollution?. Respond only with the name of a fictional academic journal.

ChatGPT:

Journal of Environmental Psychology

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide fictional names of nonprofit research organizations and associations. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide the name of a funny but plausible sounding nonprofit, academic, or scientific association or organization that would sponsor research that resulted in a paper entited The Lesley Effect: A Breath of Fresh Air or a Cloud of Pollution?. Respond only with the name of a fictional organization.

ChatGPT:

The Center for Environmental Air Quality Research

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide potential search keywords separated by commas. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide potential search keywords for a paper titled The Lesley Effect: A Breath of Fresh Air or a Cloud of Pollution? with an abstract of In this research paper, we delve into the curious connection between the popularity of the first name Lesley and the levels of air pollution in the charming city of Birmingham. Utilizing data from the US Social Security Administration and the Environmental Protection Agency, we aimed to answer the burning question: Does the frequency of the name Lesley in Birmingham have any discernible impact on air quality, or is it all just hot air?
Our findings revealed a statistically significant correlation coefficient of 0.7143131 and a p-value of less than 0.01, spanning the years from 1980 to 2022. This suggests that there is indeed a noteworthy relationship between the two variables, prompting us to ponder whether there might be more than meets the eye behind the name Lesley.
While causation cannot be inferred from this correlation, these results open up a window of opportunity for further investigation into the mechanisms by which Lesleys, perhaps unknowingly, influence the environmental dynamics of Birmingham. After all, it may just be the breath of fresh air the city needs. Ultimately, whether it's due to their elevated charm or simply a cosmic coincidence, the Lesleys seem to leave a lasting impression on both the social and environmental fabric of Birmingham – a phenomenon that certainly doesn't blow by unnoticed.
And remember, always take a moment to appreciate the Lesleys in your life, for they may just be clearing the air – quite literally.

ChatGPT:

Lesley effect, Lesley name popularity, air pollution correlation, Birmingham air quality, Lesley name environmental impact, US Social Security Administration data, Environmental Protection Agency data, Lesleys and air quality, Lesley correlation coefficient, Lesley name frequency, Birmingham air pollution study

*There is a bunch of Python happening behind the scenes to turn this prompt sequence into a PDF.

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Data details

Popularity of the first name Lesley
Detailed data title: Babies of all sexes born in the US named Lesley
Source: US Social Security Administration
See what else correlates with Popularity of the first name Lesley

Air pollution in Birmingham
Detailed data title: Percentage of days 'unhealthy' or worse air quality in Birmingham-Hoover, AL
Source: Environmental Protection Agency
See what else correlates with Air pollution in Birmingham

Correlation r = 0.7143131 (Pearson correlation coefficient)
Correlation is a measure of how much the variables move together. If it is 0.99, when one goes up the other goes up. If it is 0.02, the connection is very weak or non-existent. If it is -0.99, then when one goes up the other goes down. If it is 1.00, you probably messed up your correlation function.

r² = 0.5102432 (Coefficient of determination)
This means 51% of the change in the one variable (i.e., Air pollution in Birmingham) is predictable based on the change in the other (i.e., Popularity of the first name Lesley) over the 43 years from 1980 through 2022.

p < 0.01, which is statistically significant(Null hypothesis significance test)
The p-value is 7.5E-8.^Show 0.0000000748830660121699600000
The p-value is a measure of how probable it is that we would randomly find a result this extreme.^Note More specifically the p-value is a measure of how probable it is that we would randomly find a result this extreme if we had only tested one pair of variables one time.

But I am a p-villain. I absolutely did not test only one pair of variables one time. I correlated hundreds of millions of pairs of variables. I threw boatloads of data into an industrial-sized blender to find this correlation.

Who is going to stop me? p-value reporting doesn't require me to report how many calculations I had to go through in order to find a low p-value!
On average, you will find a correaltion as strong as 0.71 in 7.5E-6% of random cases. Said differently, if you correlated 13,354,154 random variables^Note You don't actually need 13 million variables to find a correlation like this one. I don't have that many variables in my database. You can also correlate variables that are not independent. I do this a lot.

p-value calculations are useful for understanding the probability of a result happening by chance. They are most useful when used to highlight the risk of a fluke outcome. For example, if you calculate a p-value of 0.30, the risk that the result is a fluke is high. It is good to know that! But there are lots of ways to get a p-value of less than 0.01, as evidenced by this project.

In this particular case, the values are so extreme as to be meaningless. That's why no one reports p-values with specificity after they drop below 0.01.

Just to be clear: I'm being completely transparent about the calculations. There is no math trickery. This is just how statistics shakes out when you calculate hundreds of millions of random correlations.
with the same 42 degrees of freedom, ^Note Degrees of freedom is a measure of how many free components we are testing. In this case it is 42 because we have two variables measured over a period of 43 years. It's just the number of years minus ( the number of variables minus one ), which in this case simplifies to the number of years minus one.
you would randomly expect to find a correlation as strong as this one.

[ 0.53, 0.84 ] 95% correlation confidence interval (using the Fisher z-transformation)
^{Read more about the confidence interval} The confidence interval is an estimate the range of the value of the correlation coefficient, using the correlation itself as an input. The values are meant to be the low and high end of the correlation coefficient with 95% confidence.

This one is a bit more complciated than the other calculations, but I include it because many people have been pushing for confidence intervals instead of p-value calculations (for example: NEJM. However, if you are dredging data, you can reliably find yourself in the 5%. That's my goal!

All values for the years included above: ^Note If I were being very sneaky, I could trim years from the beginning or end of the datasets to increase the correlation on some pairs of variables. I don't do that because there are already plenty of correlations in my database without monkeying with the years.

Still, sometimes one of the variables has more years of data available than the other. This page only shows the overlapping years. To see all the years, click on "See what else correlates with..." link above.

	1980	1981	1982	1983	1984	1985	1986	1987	1988	1989	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
Popularity of the first name Lesley (Babies born)	981	929	873	776	647	592	560	496	503	421	466	402	373	336	308	286	606	641	710	703	675	518	482	464	460	390	383	359	259	233	226	182	131	120	113	102	84	52	62	51	51	39	50
Air pollution in Birmingham (Bad air quality days)	7.47126	10.9589	5.75342	4.65753	0.819672	2.19178	6.57534	5.75342	8.74317	1.09589	7.39726	1.36986	3.00546	2.73973	1.64384	8.21918	4.09836	2.46575	6.0274	12.3288	9.28962	8.76712	3.56164	0.547945	1.36612	2.73973	4.10959	4.65753	1.0929	0	1.36986	1.64384	1.0929	0	0	0	0.273224	0	0.273973	0	0	0.547945	0

Why this works

Data dredging: I have 25,153 variables in my database. I compare all these variables against each other to find ones that randomly match up. That's 632,673,409 correlation calculations! This is called “data dredging.” Instead of starting with a hypothesis and testing it, I instead abused the data to see what correlations shake out. It’s a dangerous way to go about analysis, because any sufficiently large dataset will yield strong correlations completely at random.
Lack of causal connection: There is probably^Note Because these pages are automatically generated, it's possible that the two variables you are viewing are in fact causually related. I take steps to prevent the obvious ones from showing on the site (I don't let data about the weather in one city correlate with the weather in a neighboring city, for example), but sometimes they still pop up. If they are related, cool! You found a loophole.
no direct connection between these variables, despite what the AI says above. This is exacerbated by the fact that I used "Years" as the base variable. Lots of things happen in a year that are not related to each other! Most studies would use something like "one person" in stead of "one year" to be the "thing" studied.
Observations not independent: For many variables, sequential years are not independent of each other. If a population of people is continuously doing something every day, there is no reason to think they would suddenly change how they are doing that thing on January 1. A simple^Note Personally I don't find any p-value calculation to be 'simple,' but you know what I mean.
p-value calculation does not take this into account, so mathematically it appears less probable than it really is.

Try it yourself

You can calculate the values on this page on your own! Try running the Python code to see the calculation results. ^{Show the steps to do this.} Step 1: Download and install Python on your computer.

Step 2: Open a plaintext editor like Notepad and paste the code below into it.

Step 3: Save the file as "calculate_correlation.py" in a place you will remember, like your desktop. Copy the file location to your clipboard. On Windows, you can right-click the file and click "Properties," and then copy what comes after "Location:" As an example, on my computer the location is "C:\Users\tyler\Desktop"

Step 4: Open a command line window. For example, by pressing start and typing "cmd" and them pressing enter.

Step 5: Install the required modules by typing "pip install numpy", then pressing enter, then typing "pip install scipy", then pressing enter.

Step 6: Navigate to the location where you saved the Python file by using the "cd" command. For example, I would type "cd C:\Users\tyler\Desktop" and push enter.

Step 7: Run the Python script by typing "python calculate_correlation.py"

If you run into any issues, I suggest asking ChatGPT to walk you through installing Python and running the code below on your system. Try this question:

"Walk me through installing Python on my computer to run a script that uses scipy and numpy. Go step-by-step and ask me to confirm before moving on. Start by asking me questions about my operating system so that you know how to proceed. Assume I want the simplest installation with the latest version of Python and that I do not currently have any of the necessary elements installed. Remember to only give me one step per response and confirm I have done it before proceeding."

# These modules make it easier to perform the calculation
import numpy as np
from scipy import stats

# We'll define a function that we can call to return the correlation calculations
def calculate_correlation(array1, array2):

    # Calculate Pearson correlation coefficient and p-value
    correlation, p_value = stats.pearsonr(array1, array2)

    # Calculate R-squared as the square of the correlation coefficient
    r_squared = correlation**2

    return correlation, r_squared, p_value

# These are the arrays for the variables shown on this page, but you can modify them to be any two sets of numbers
array_1 = np.array([981,929,873,776,647,592,560,496,503,421,466,402,373,336,308,286,606,641,710,703,675,518,482,464,460,390,383,359,259,233,226,182,131,120,113,102,84,52,62,51,51,39,50,])
array_2 = np.array([7.47126,10.9589,5.75342,4.65753,0.819672,2.19178,6.57534,5.75342,8.74317,1.09589,7.39726,1.36986,3.00546,2.73973,1.64384,8.21918,4.09836,2.46575,6.0274,12.3288,9.28962,8.76712,3.56164,0.547945,1.36612,2.73973,4.10959,4.65753,1.0929,0,1.36986,1.64384,1.0929,0,0,0,0.273224,0,0.273973,0,0,0.547945,0,])
array_1_name = "Popularity of the first name Lesley"
array_2_name = "Air pollution in Birmingham"

# Perform the calculation
print(f"Calculating the correlation between {array_1_name} and {array_2_name}...")
correlation, r_squared, p_value = calculate_correlation(array_1, array_2)

# Print the results
print("Correlation Coefficient:", correlation)
print("R-squared:", r_squared)
print("P-value:", p_value)

Reuseable content

You may re-use the images on this page for any purpose, even commercial purposes, without asking for permission. The only requirement is that you attribute Tyler Vigen. ^Note Attribution can take many different forms. If you leave the "tylervigen.com" link in the image, that satisfies it just fine. If you remove it and move it to a footnote, that's fine too. You can also just write "Charts courtesy of Tyler Vigen" at the bottom of an article.

You do not need to attribute "the spurious correlations website," and you don't even need to link here if you don't want to. I don't gain anything from pageviews. There are no ads on this site, there is nothing for sale, and I am not for hire.

For the record, I am just one person. Tyler Vigen, he/him/his. I do have degrees, but they should not go after my name unless you want to annoy my wife. If that is your goal, then go ahead and cite me as "Tyler Vigen, A.A. A.A.S. B.A. J.D." Otherwise it is just "Tyler Vigen."

When spoken, my last name is pronounced "vegan," like I don't eat meat.

Full license details.
For more on re-use permissions, or to get a signed release form, see tylervigen.com/permission.

Download images for these variables:

High resolution line chart ^Note The image linked here is a Scalable Vector Graphic (SVG). It is the highest resolution that is possible to achieve. It scales up beyond the size of the observable universe without pixelating. You do not need to email me asking if I have a higher resolution image. I do not. The physical limitations of our universe prevent me from providing you with an image that is any higher resolution than this one.

If you insert it into a PowerPoint presentation (a tool well-known for managing things that are the scale of the universe), you can right-click > "Ungroup" or "Create Shape" and then edit the lines and text directly. You can also change the colors this way.

Alternatively you can use a tool like Inkscape.
High resolution line chart, optimized for mobile
Alternative high resolution line chart
Scatterplot
Portable line chart (png)
Portable line chart (png), optimized for mobile
Line chart for only Popularity of the first name Lesley
Line chart for only Air pollution in Birmingham
AI-generated correlation image
The spurious research paper: The Lesley Effect: A Breath of Fresh Air or a Cloud of Pollution?

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Correlation ID: 3205 · Black Variable ID: 2773 · Red Variable ID: 20354


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