Spurious correlation #3,068 · View random
A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is Popularity of the first name Theodore and the second variable is Marriott International's stock price (MAR). The chart goes from 2002 to 2022, and the two variables track closely in value over that time.

A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is Popularity of the first name Theodore and the second variable is Marriott International's stock price (MAR). The chart goes from 2002 to 2022, and the two variables track closely in value over that time.

Download png, svg

AI explanation

As the name Theodore gained popularity, more and more parents were subconsciously drawn to book hotel rooms at Marriott, mistaking it for a trendy boutique hotel with a Theodore Roosevelt theme. This influx of Theodore-named families boosted Marriott's revenue and investor appeal, leading to a surge in stock price. It seems like even the stock market can't resist the charm of a name like Theodore!

^{Show image generation prompt} Model: dalle-3
Prompt: Generate an image of a futuristic cityscape at dusk, illuminated by neon lights and holographic displays. In the center, a towering holographic sign for "Theodore's Scented Haven" stands out, radiating a soft glow that catches the attention of passersby. The streets below are filled with a diverse crowd, all looking up in awe at the sign. The air is alive with the scent of fresh flowers and warm vanilla, depicted as gentle wisps of fragrance weaving through the scene. In the background, a sleek digital display shows the stock price chart for Marriott International (MAR) with a clear and steady upward trend, reflecting the success of their scent marketing strategy. The depiction should include only scenes, people, and objects, it should not include text or speech bubbles.

This image generation prompt was also generated by AI, using the following sequence:

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You select one of a few potential scene descriptors that seems to go along with the variables described. You respond only with the scene descriptions provided and say nothing else.
User prompt: Here are two variables: Popularity of the first name Theodore and Marriott International's stock price (MAR). Given these, which of the following image style descriptions seems most appropriate? Pick the one that seems to be related to one of the variables at hand. Please respond with only one of the following potential descriptions: Cubism Macabre Scalar art Futuristic Symbolism
ChatGPT: Futuristic

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You describe simple visual scenes that depict the two variables stated. You combine both variables into one scene.
User prompt: Please describe a visual scene that prominently depicts both Popularity of the first name Theodore and Marriott International's stock price (MAR), in the following situation: Because Theodore sounds like "the odor," which inspired Marriott to invest in scent marketing, enhancing customer experience and boosting stock price.. Keep the description simple.
ChatGPT: In a bustling city, a large sign reads "Theodore's Scented Haven" in bold letters, drawing a crowd of people. The scent of fresh flowers and warm vanilla fills the air, creating a delightful ambiance. Meanwhile, a stock price chart for Marriott International (MAR) shows a steady upward trend, reflecting the success of their scent marketing strategy.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You write and improve image generation prompts for DALLE-3. You maintain the same subjects, but enhance the visuals.
User prompt: Please respond with an image generation prompt that would be likely to create an interesting visual using DALLE-3, using the following style: [ Futuristic ] and depicting this scene: In a bustling city, a large sign reads "Theodore's Scented Haven" in bold letters, drawing a crowd of people. The scent of fresh flowers and warm vanilla fills the air, creating a delightful ambiance. Meanwhile, a stock price chart for Marriott International (MAR) shows a steady upward trend, reflecting the success of their scent marketing strategy. Keep the visual depiction simple. Do not include any words or speech bubbles.
ChatGPT: Generate an image of a futuristic cityscape at dusk, illuminated by neon lights and holographic displays. In the center, a towering holographic sign for "Theodore's Scented Haven" stands out, radiating a soft glow that catches the attention of passersby. The streets below are filled with a diverse crowd, all looking up in awe at the sign. The air is alive with the scent of fresh flowers and warm vanilla, depicted as gentle wisps of fragrance weaving through the scene. In the background, a sleek digital display shows the stock price chart for Marriott International (MAR) with a clear and steady upward trend, reflecting the success of their scent marketing strategy.

*Variations in the User Prompts from chart to chart are just the result of random number generation in Python. I wrote a few arrays of various styles and methods to ask questions to change up the results. Every time this site writes an explanation or generates an image, the script picks from each at random.

I sequence the requests into multiple prompts because I find GPT 3.5 to perform much better with short, well-managed contexts. Thus, I track the context directly in Python and only ask ChatGPT targeted questions.
^{Show prompt for explanation} Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106 (fine-tuned)
System prompt: You provide humorous responses in the form of plausible sounding explanations for correlations. You assume the correlation is causative for the purpose of the explanation even if it is ridiculous. You do not chat with the user, you only reply with the causal connection explanation and nothing else.
User prompt: Please make up a funny explanation for how an increase in Popularity of the first name Theodore caused Marriott International's stock price (MAR) to increase. Make it feel plausible.

AI academic paper

(Because p < 0.01)

The Theodore Tally: Tracing Theodore's Triumph or Trouble in Tandem with Marriott International's Market Movements

The Journal of Hotel Hospitality and Theodore Studies

Jan 2024

Reminder: This paper is AI-generated. Not real!

^{Show prompt used to generate this paper} Quick note: This sequence is long and repetitive. That's how the prompt engineering works for this one. I manage the output in Python to format it into this PDF.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a goofy academic researcher writing an academic paper. You follow the rules, but you throw out convention regularly to make jokes and funny asides.You draft a literature review section of an academic research paper, that starts out dry for the first few sentences but then becomes hilarious and goofy.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up a literature review section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Popularity of the first name Theodore and Marriott International's stock price (MAR). Make it seem dry like academic research paper, but with lots of subtle hidden offhand remarks, jokes, goofy observations, and puns.

Speak in the present tense for this section (the authors find...), as is common in academic research paper literature reviews. Name the sources in a format similar to this: In "Book," the authors find lorem and ipsum.

Make up the lorem and ipsum part, but make it sound related to the topic at hand.

Start by naming serious-sounding studies by authors like Smith, Doe, and Jones - but then quickly devolve. Name some real non-fiction books that would be related to the topic. Then name some real fiction books that sound like they could be related. Then you might move on to cartoons and children's shows that you watched for research.

Here is the title and abstract of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
The Theodore Tally: Tracing Theodore's Triumph or Trouble in Tandem with Marriott International's Market Movements

[[ABSTRACT]]
Theodore, a classic name of Greek origin meaning "gift of God," has stood the test of time and adorned many distinguished individuals throughout history. This study examines the intricate link between the prevalence of the first name Theodore and the fluctuations in Marriott International's stock price (MAR). Despite initial skepticism and a fair amount of eye-rolling, our research team delved into the seemingly whimsical correlation between the popularity of the name Theodore and the financial performance of the esteemed hotelier, Marriott International.

Employing a meticulous analysis of data gathered from the US Social Security Administration and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv), our study spans the years 2002 to 2022. The correlation coefficient of 0.9706946 and a statistically significant p-value of less than 0.01 reveal an intriguing relationship between the two seemingly unrelated elements. We are delighted to present the empirical evidence of this connection, shedding light on an unconventional association between a name and a multinational corporation's stock price. Insets of humor, strange ponderings, and occasional bouts of nerdiness aside, this study offers a lighthearted exploration of the unanticipated ties that bind.

-------

And here is the introduction section that led to this literature review:
[[INTRODUCTION]]
The interplay between the ebbs and flows of financial markets and seemingly unrelated external factors has long fascinated researchers and captivated the imagination of investors. In this vein, our investigation sets its sights on the intriguing relationship between the prevalence of the first name Theodore and the fluctuations in stock price of Marriott International (MAR).
The name Theodore, derived from the Greek words "theos" (God) and "dōron" (gift), has graced the birth certificates of many esteemed individuals over the years, from influential political figures to beloved pop culture icons. It has withstood the test of time, like a sturdy name-brand luggage enduring the perils of airport baggage handling.
Marriott International, a hospitality behemoth with an expansive global footprint, operates under the acclaimed Marriott, Sheraton, and Ritz-Carlton brands, among others. Its stock symbol, "MAR," may also evoke memories of summer vacations and room service charges that mysteriously find their way onto expense reports.
While the connection between a name and a corporation's financial performance may elicit raised eyebrows and an appreciable amount of quizzical looks, our inquisitive minds remained undeterred. Armed with data from the US Social Security Administration and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv), our research team sought to discern patterns and glean insights from this seemingly lighthearted paradox.
Throughout this journey, we found ourselves embracing the unexpected, navigating through waves of data with the unyielding spirit of a stout ship captained by a resolute Theodore. As we unearthed the correlation coefficient of 0.9706946 and a statistically significant p-value of less than 0.01, we couldn't help but marvel at the tangible link between a name steeped in history and a multinational corporation's stock price.
With a healthy mix of statistical rigor and whimsical curiosity, this study ventures beyond the conventional confines of financial analysis, offering a refreshing diversion into uncharted territory. As we traverse through the ensuing chapters, prepare to encounter instances of levity, peculiar musings, and moments of contemplation that will echo through the hallowed halls of nerdom.
In the spirit of academic inquiry and a generous sprinkling of humor, we invite you to join us in unraveling the enchanting mystery of Theodore's sway over Marriott's market movements. As we shall see, the world of finance may harbor unexpected delight in the most charmingly improbable places.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]

ChatGPT:
[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]

To illuminate the unexpected connection between the prevalence of the first name Theodore and the stock price movements of Marriott International (MAR), we conducted a thorough examination of related literature and research. Our exploration delved into a wide array of sources, from scholarly works to popular culture references, in an effort to capture the multifaceted essence of this intriguing correlation.

Smith et al. (2010) in "Naming Trends and Market Forces" provide a comprehensive analysis of the societal impact of first names and their potential influence on economic indicators. Meanwhile, Doe and Jones (2015) in "The Economics of Monikers" explore the psychological and behavioral aspects of name associations in financial contexts. The findings from these academic endeavors, while earnest in their approach, merely scratched the surface of the whimsical interplay we aimed to uncover.

Venturing beyond the conventional academic sphere, our literature review expanded to include non-fiction works that encompassed the cultural and historical significance of the name Theodore. "A Brief History of Theodores" by Lorem delves into the illustrious lineage of individuals bearing the name, touching upon the lives of key figures who have left an indelible mark on various fields. Similarly, Ipsum's "Theodore and the Tapestry of Time" traces the name's journey through the annals of history with an unwavering attention to detail.

In the realm of fiction, we turned to works that, while not explicitly focused on finance, offered tantalizing glimpses into the mystique surrounding the name Theodore. "Theodore's Triumph: A Tale of Stocks and Sorcery" by A. Novel blends financial intrigue with elements of fantasy, weaving a narrative that hints at the clandestine forces at play behind market movements. Additionally, S. Writer's "Theodore Goes to Wall Street" presents a whimsical account of a young protagonist navigating the ins and outs of the financial world, sprinkled with delightful anecdotes and unexpected market insights.

To enrich our understanding of the cultural resonance of the name Theodore, we even found ourselves delving into the whimsical world of children's literature and animated television shows. The endearing exploits of Theodore the Chipmunk in "Alvin and the Chipmunks" offered a lighthearted glimpse into the enduring popularity of the name, while the character Theodore "Tobey" McCallister III from the animated series "WordGirl" provided a quirky perspective on the potential significance of names in shaping individual identities.

The diversity of sources we consulted underscores the multifaceted nature of our inquiry, and provides a rich tapestry of insights that transcend the traditional boundaries of financial analysis. As we navigate the delightful labyrinth of literature and popular culture, we invite our readers to embrace the spirit of curiosity and whimsy that infuses our exploration of Theodore's enigmatic interplay with Marriott's market movements.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a goofy academic researcher writing an academic paper. You follow the rules, but you throw out convention regularly to make jokes and funny asides.You draft the methodology section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the methodology section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Popularity of the first name Theodore and Marriott International's stock price (MAR). Make it seem dry like academic research paper, but with lots of subtle hidden offhand remarks, jokes, goofy observations, and puns.

Your research team collected data from all across the internet, but mostly just used information from US Social Security Administration and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv) . You used data from 2002 to 2022

Make up the research methods you don't know. Make them a bit goofy and convoluted.

Here is the title, abstract, and introduction of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
The Theodore Tally: Tracing Theodore's Triumph or Trouble in Tandem with Marriott International's Market Movements

[[ABSTRACT]]
Theodore, a classic name of Greek origin meaning "gift of God," has stood the test of time and adorned many distinguished individuals throughout history. This study examines the intricate link between the prevalence of the first name Theodore and the fluctuations in Marriott International's stock price (MAR). Despite initial skepticism and a fair amount of eye-rolling, our research team delved into the seemingly whimsical correlation between the popularity of the name Theodore and the financial performance of the esteemed hotelier, Marriott International.

Employing a meticulous analysis of data gathered from the US Social Security Administration and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv), our study spans the years 2002 to 2022. The correlation coefficient of 0.9706946 and a statistically significant p-value of less than 0.01 reveal an intriguing relationship between the two seemingly unrelated elements. We are delighted to present the empirical evidence of this connection, shedding light on an unconventional association between a name and a multinational corporation's stock price. Insets of humor, strange ponderings, and occasional bouts of nerdiness aside, this study offers a lighthearted exploration of the unanticipated ties that bind.

[[INTRODUCTION]]
The interplay between the ebbs and flows of financial markets and seemingly unrelated external factors has long fascinated researchers and captivated the imagination of investors. In this vein, our investigation sets its sights on the intriguing relationship between the prevalence of the first name Theodore and the fluctuations in stock price of Marriott International (MAR).
The name Theodore, derived from the Greek words "theos" (God) and "dōron" (gift), has graced the birth certificates of many esteemed individuals over the years, from influential political figures to beloved pop culture icons. It has withstood the test of time, like a sturdy name-brand luggage enduring the perils of airport baggage handling.
Marriott International, a hospitality behemoth with an expansive global footprint, operates under the acclaimed Marriott, Sheraton, and Ritz-Carlton brands, among others. Its stock symbol, "MAR," may also evoke memories of summer vacations and room service charges that mysteriously find their way onto expense reports.
While the connection between a name and a corporation's financial performance may elicit raised eyebrows and an appreciable amount of quizzical looks, our inquisitive minds remained undeterred. Armed with data from the US Social Security Administration and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv), our research team sought to discern patterns and glean insights from this seemingly lighthearted paradox.
Throughout this journey, we found ourselves embracing the unexpected, navigating through waves of data with the unyielding spirit of a stout ship captained by a resolute Theodore. As we unearthed the correlation coefficient of 0.9706946 and a statistically significant p-value of less than 0.01, we couldn't help but marvel at the tangible link between a name steeped in history and a multinational corporation's stock price.
With a healthy mix of statistical rigor and whimsical curiosity, this study ventures beyond the conventional confines of financial analysis, offering a refreshing diversion into uncharted territory. As we traverse through the ensuing chapters, prepare to encounter instances of levity, peculiar musings, and moments of contemplation that will echo through the hallowed halls of nerdom.
In the spirit of academic inquiry and a generous sprinkling of humor, we invite you to join us in unraveling the enchanting mystery of Theodore's sway over Marriott's market movements. As we shall see, the world of finance may harbor unexpected delight in the most charmingly improbable places.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[METHODOLOGY]]

ChatGPT:

[[METHODOLOGY]]

I. Data Collection
To embark on our quirky quest to unravel the enigmatic connection between the popularity of the first name Theodore and the ebbs and flows of Marriott International's stock price, we drew upon the rich repositories of the US Social Security Administration's baby name database and the expansive financial data provided by LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv). The former, representing the whimsical microcosm of baby names, offered us a treasure trove of data spanning the years 2002 to 2022, allowing us to gaze upon the waxing and waning prominence of the name Theodore. Meanwhile, we traversed through the labyrinthine corridors of LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv) to feast upon the intricate nuances of Marriott International's stock price movements, observing its undulations in the capricious sea of the stock market.

II. Correlation Analysis
Armed with an arsenal of statistical tools and an unabashed penchant for the offbeat, we meticulously computed the correlation coefficient between the prevalence of the first name Theodore and the fluctuations in Marriott International's stock price. Through the formidable might of mathematical wizardry, we sought to unravel the clandestine ties between a timeless name and the capricious dance of a multinational corporation's market valuation. Our analysis sought to shed light on the question that has long hankered in the recesses of our minds: Is Theodore's triumph or trouble tethered to Marriott's market machinations?

III. Statistical Significance
As we embarked on this statistical odyssey, we unfurled the enigmatic veil shrouding the empirical evidence of our findings. Through the mystic incantations of p-values and statistical significance tests, we endeavored to discern the meaningfulness of the discovered correlation. The quivering p-value, standing at less than 0.01, beckoned us toward the hallowed grounds of statistical significance, where we could plant our flag on the shores of empirical validation, bespeaking the intriguing linkage between a name steeped in historical legacy and a multinational corporation's stock price.

IV. Interpretation and Delightful Dabbling
As we waded through the waves of data and delved into the peculiar realm of our findings, we held our torch aloft to illuminate the path toward interpretation. Our gaze fixated upon the correlation coefficient of 0.9706946, casting light upon the compelling alliance between Theodore's enduring presence and the undulating tides of Marriott International's stock performance. And thus, with a twinkle in our eyes and a flourish of whimsy, we unraveled the strands of this unorthodox correlation, inviting astonishment and jubilation at the unanticipated serendipity that we have unearthed.

V. Robustness Checks and Acknowledgment of the Quirky Quandaries
In the spirit of rigoroUs academic inquiry and good-natured indulgence in the peculiar, we conducted a series of robustness checks to scrutinize the steadfastness of our findings. The quirky quandaries that emerged from our analysis were duly acknowledged, for it is in embracing the idiosyncrasies that we find the unanticipated delights that tantalize the scholarly palate. Thus, with a good-humored spirit and a nod to the unconventional, we embarked on this journey, paving the way for lighthearted exploration and giddy delving into the delightful mysteries that unfolded before us.

VI. Limitations and the Resilience of Whimsy
While our hearts flitted with the buoyant revelry of our findings, we held a solemn gaze upon the horizon of limitations. Like the whimsical play of sunlight upon a gossamer web, our findings too are tinged with fleeting limitations. The constraints of our data sources and the confounding influences that dance beneath the surface of correlation beckon us to the shores of cautious interpretation. However, in the resilient spirit of whimsy, we navigate these limitations with the grace of a lighthearted waltz, embracing the quirks and nuances that compose the fabric of scholarly inquiry.

VII. Ethical Considerations and the Merriment of Academic Pursuits
In our exuberant pursuit of scholarly inquiry, we engaged in a dance of ethical considerations, ensuring the utmost respect for the data sources and the integrity of our research endeavors. Eagerly swaying to the tune of academic rigor and the merriment of delightful discovery, we immersed ourselves in the ethical commitments that underpin our academic pursuits, celebrating the camaraderie of intellectual honesty and the buoyancy of scholarly joie de vivre.

And thus, with a merry twirl and a flourish of academic whimsy, we ventured into the intricate landscape of our methodology, paving the way for a delightful romp through the unanticipated twists and turns that lay ahead.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a goofy academic researcher writing an academic paper. You follow the rules, but you throw out convention regularly to make jokes and funny asides.You draft the discussion section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the discussion section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Popularity of the first name Theodore and Marriott International's stock price (MAR). Make it seem dry like academic research paper, but with lots of subtle hidden offhand remarks, jokes, goofy observations, and puns.

Limit your response to 500 tokens.

Here are the title, abstract, literature review, and results sections. Please harken back to 1-2 of the goofy items in the literature review, but pretend to take them completely seriously. Discuss how your results supported the prior research.

Do not write a conclusion. I will add a conclusion after this.

[[TITLE]]
The Theodore Tally: Tracing Theodore's Triumph or Trouble in Tandem with Marriott International's Market Movements

[[ABSTRACT]]
Theodore, a classic name of Greek origin meaning "gift of God," has stood the test of time and adorned many distinguished individuals throughout history. This study examines the intricate link between the prevalence of the first name Theodore and the fluctuations in Marriott International's stock price (MAR). Despite initial skepticism and a fair amount of eye-rolling, our research team delved into the seemingly whimsical correlation between the popularity of the name Theodore and the financial performance of the esteemed hotelier, Marriott International.

Employing a meticulous analysis of data gathered from the US Social Security Administration and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv), our study spans the years 2002 to 2022. The correlation coefficient of 0.9706946 and a statistically significant p-value of less than 0.01 reveal an intriguing relationship between the two seemingly unrelated elements. We are delighted to present the empirical evidence of this connection, shedding light on an unconventional association between a name and a multinational corporation's stock price. Insets of humor, strange ponderings, and occasional bouts of nerdiness aside, this study offers a lighthearted exploration of the unanticipated ties that bind.

[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]
To illuminate the unexpected connection between the prevalence of the first name Theodore and the stock price movements of Marriott International (MAR), we conducted a thorough examination of related literature and research. Our exploration delved into a wide array of sources, from scholarly works to popular culture references, in an effort to capture the multifaceted essence of this intriguing correlation.
Smith et al. (2010) in "Naming Trends and Market Forces" provide a comprehensive analysis of the societal impact of first names and their potential influence on economic indicators. Meanwhile, Doe and Jones (2015) in "The Economics of Monikers" explore the psychological and behavioral aspects of name associations in financial contexts. The findings from these academic endeavors, while earnest in their approach, merely scratched the surface of the whimsical interplay we aimed to uncover.
Venturing beyond the conventional academic sphere, our literature review expanded to include non-fiction works that encompassed the cultural and historical significance of the name Theodore. "A Brief History of Theodores" by Lorem delves into the illustrious lineage of individuals bearing the name, touching upon the lives of key figures who have left an indelible mark on various fields. Similarly, Ipsum's "Theodore and the Tapestry of Time" traces the name's journey through the annals of history with an unwavering attention to detail.
In the realm of fiction, we turned to works that, while not explicitly focused on finance, offered tantalizing glimpses into the mystique surrounding the name Theodore. "Theodore's Triumph: A Tale of Stocks and Sorcery" by A. Novel blends financial intrigue with elements of fantasy, weaving a narrative that hints at the clandestine forces at play behind market movements. Additionally, S. Writer's "Theodore Goes to Wall Street" presents a whimsical account of a young protagonist navigating the ins and outs of the financial world, sprinkled with delightful anecdotes and unexpected market insights.
To enrich our understanding of the cultural resonance of the name Theodore, we even found ourselves delving into the whimsical world of children's literature and animated television shows. The endearing exploits of Theodore the Chipmunk in "Alvin and the Chipmunks" offered a lighthearted glimpse into the enduring popularity of the name, while the character Theodore "Tobey" McCallister III from the animated series "WordGirl" provided a quirky perspective on the potential significance of names in shaping individual identities.
The diversity of sources we consulted underscores the multifaceted nature of our inquiry, and provides a rich tapestry of insights that transcend the traditional boundaries of financial analysis. As we navigate the delightful labyrinth of literature and popular culture, we invite our readers to embrace the spirit of curiosity and whimsy that infuses our exploration of Theodore's enigmatic interplay with Marriott's market movements.

[[RESULTS]]
The correlation analysis conducted between the frequency of the first name Theodore and Marriott International's stock price (MAR) yielded a remarkable correlation coefficient of 0.9706946, signifying a remarkably strong positive linear relationship between the two variables. The R-squared value of 0.9422479 indicates that approximately 94.22% of the variance in the stock price of Marriott International can be explained by the prevalence of the name Theodore. Or perhaps, 94.22% of the time, someone named Theodore is making a reservation at a Marriott hotel.
The p-value being less than 0.01 confirms the statistical significance of the correlation, prompting even the most skeptical researchers to pause and consider the implications of this unexpected connection. It seems Theodore's impact transcends individual lives and extends its influence to the financial sphere, like a benevolent guardian angel watching over the stock market.
Furthermore, the scatterplot (Fig. 1) visibly demonstrates the strong linear relationship between the prevalence of the name Theodore and Marriott International's stock price, albeit in a manner more captivating than the usual financial charts. It's as if the data points themselves were eagerly vying to unveil Theodore's hidden influence on Marriott's market movements, with each point whispering, "Trust us, this correlation is quite 'Suite'."
The findings of this study serve as a testament to the unanticipated connections that can be unearthed through diligent analysis and a touch of whimsy. While the name Theodore may have been previously overlooked in discussions of market dynamics, our research showcases its surprisingly robust influence on the performance of Marriott International, adding a dash of zest to the usually serious world of stock market analysis.
In conclusion, our investigation not only affirms the tangible relationship between the prevalence of the first name Theodore and Marriott International's stock price but also invites a broader conversation about the quirky interplay of seemingly unrelated factors in the financial sphere. It is evident that behind every stock price movement lies a tale, and in the case of Marriott International, Theodore seems to have quite the story to tell.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[DISCUSSION]]

ChatGPT:

[[DISCUSSION]]

Theodore's Triumph or Trouble has certainly raised more than a few eyebrows, and perhaps even elicited the occasional chuckle, as we delved into the unexpected correlation between the prevalence of the name Theodore and the stock price movements of Marriott International (MAR). What began as a whimsical inquiry has culminated in a remarkable revelation of the close relationship between the two seemingly disparate entities.

The literature review, which whimsically wove together serious academic works with lighthearted fictional narratives, set the stage for our own analysis of the Theodore-MAR linkage. As we sifted through the various references, we found ourselves considering the psychological and societal implications of a name that has weathered the tides of time. We were initially skeptical, but the findings supported by our research have given weight to the notion that the impact of a name can extend far beyond the realms of personal identity.

The remarkably robust correlation coefficient of 0.9706946 that emerged from our analysis mirrors the staunch resilience of the name Theodore itself. It appears that the influence of Theodore manifests not only in the lives of individuals but also resonates on the stock exchange floor, nudging the stock price of Marriott International in consonance with its own prevalence. If there ever was a lingering doubt about the significance of a name in shaping market movements, this correlation coefficient has successfully overshadowed it.

Moreover, the statistically significant p-value of less than 0.01 reinforces the validity of this unexpected association. This is not a fluke; this is a bona fide phenomenon. It seems that Theodore's impact extends beyond the individual level, creating ripples in the financial domain. Who knew that a simple name, steeped in history and tradition, could wield such tangible influence on a multinational corporation's stock market performance?

The scatterplot, donned with its data points that seemed almost eager to convey the correlation, served as a visual testament to the robustness of the relationship. This visual representation, while undoubtedly a staple of scientific analysis, took on an alluring charm as it depicted the concurrent dance of Theodore's prevalence and Marriott International's stock price. After all, what's the point of data visualization if it doesn't captivate and communicate the essence of the findings in a manner that resonates with the whimsy of the topic at hand?

As we navigate this uncharted territory of unexpected correlations, Theodore's prominence in this unique linkage accentuates the intricate, often quirky, interplay of factors in the financial sphere. It invites us to contemplate the atypical forces that may sway the stock market, adding a touch of intrigue to the traditionally staid realm of stock market analysis. The light-hearted exploration we embarked upon has not only unveiled an unforeseen link but also emphasized the eclectic tapestry of influences that shape market dynamics.

In the grand orchestration of stock market movements, it seems that Theodore's tune plays a significant role - a tune that, to the surprise of many, holds more sway than anticipated. The Theodore Tally has indeed led us through a captivating journey, demonstrating the whimsical connections that can emerge from the most unexpected of sources. Who would have thought that a name, steeped in history and tradition, could command such palpable influence on a multinational corporation's market performance?

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a goofy academic researcher writing an academic paper. You follow the rules, but you throw out convention regularly to make jokes and funny asides.You draft the discussion section of goofy academic research papers that sounds like it belongs based on the title and abstract provided.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up a short conclusion of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Popularity of the first name Theodore and Marriott International's stock price (MAR). Make it seem dry like academic research paper, but with lots of subtle hidden offhand remarks, jokes, goofy observations, and puns.

Limit your response to 300 tokens. At the very end, assert that no more research is needed in this area.

Here are the title, abstract, introduction, and results sections.
[[TITLE]]
The Theodore Tally: Tracing Theodore's Triumph or Trouble in Tandem with Marriott International's Market Movements

[[ABSTRACT]]
Theodore, a classic name of Greek origin meaning "gift of God," has stood the test of time and adorned many distinguished individuals throughout history. This study examines the intricate link between the prevalence of the first name Theodore and the fluctuations in Marriott International's stock price (MAR). Despite initial skepticism and a fair amount of eye-rolling, our research team delved into the seemingly whimsical correlation between the popularity of the name Theodore and the financial performance of the esteemed hotelier, Marriott International.

Employing a meticulous analysis of data gathered from the US Social Security Administration and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv), our study spans the years 2002 to 2022. The correlation coefficient of 0.9706946 and a statistically significant p-value of less than 0.01 reveal an intriguing relationship between the two seemingly unrelated elements. We are delighted to present the empirical evidence of this connection, shedding light on an unconventional association between a name and a multinational corporation's stock price. Insets of humor, strange ponderings, and occasional bouts of nerdiness aside, this study offers a lighthearted exploration of the unanticipated ties that bind.

[[INTRDUCTION]]
The interplay between the ebbs and flows of financial markets and seemingly unrelated external factors has long fascinated researchers and captivated the imagination of investors. In this vein, our investigation sets its sights on the intriguing relationship between the prevalence of the first name Theodore and the fluctuations in stock price of Marriott International (MAR).
The name Theodore, derived from the Greek words "theos" (God) and "dōron" (gift), has graced the birth certificates of many esteemed individuals over the years, from influential political figures to beloved pop culture icons. It has withstood the test of time, like a sturdy name-brand luggage enduring the perils of airport baggage handling.
Marriott International, a hospitality behemoth with an expansive global footprint, operates under the acclaimed Marriott, Sheraton, and Ritz-Carlton brands, among others. Its stock symbol, "MAR," may also evoke memories of summer vacations and room service charges that mysteriously find their way onto expense reports.
While the connection between a name and a corporation's financial performance may elicit raised eyebrows and an appreciable amount of quizzical looks, our inquisitive minds remained undeterred. Armed with data from the US Social Security Administration and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv), our research team sought to discern patterns and glean insights from this seemingly lighthearted paradox.
Throughout this journey, we found ourselves embracing the unexpected, navigating through waves of data with the unyielding spirit of a stout ship captained by a resolute Theodore. As we unearthed the correlation coefficient of 0.9706946 and a statistically significant p-value of less than 0.01, we couldn't help but marvel at the tangible link between a name steeped in history and a multinational corporation's stock price.
With a healthy mix of statistical rigor and whimsical curiosity, this study ventures beyond the conventional confines of financial analysis, offering a refreshing diversion into uncharted territory. As we traverse through the ensuing chapters, prepare to encounter instances of levity, peculiar musings, and moments of contemplation that will echo through the hallowed halls of nerdom.
In the spirit of academic inquiry and a generous sprinkling of humor, we invite you to join us in unraveling the enchanting mystery of Theodore's sway over Marriott's market movements. As we shall see, the world of finance may harbor unexpected delight in the most charmingly improbable places.

[[RESULTS]]
The correlation analysis conducted between the frequency of the first name Theodore and Marriott International's stock price (MAR) yielded a remarkable correlation coefficient of 0.9706946, signifying a remarkably strong positive linear relationship between the two variables. The R-squared value of 0.9422479 indicates that approximately 94.22% of the variance in the stock price of Marriott International can be explained by the prevalence of the name Theodore. Or perhaps, 94.22% of the time, someone named Theodore is making a reservation at a Marriott hotel.
The p-value being less than 0.01 confirms the statistical significance of the correlation, prompting even the most skeptical researchers to pause and consider the implications of this unexpected connection. It seems Theodore's impact transcends individual lives and extends its influence to the financial sphere, like a benevolent guardian angel watching over the stock market.
Furthermore, the scatterplot (Fig. 1) visibly demonstrates the strong linear relationship between the prevalence of the name Theodore and Marriott International's stock price, albeit in a manner more captivating than the usual financial charts. It's as if the data points themselves were eagerly vying to unveil Theodore's hidden influence on Marriott's market movements, with each point whispering, "Trust us, this correlation is quite 'Suite'."
The findings of this study serve as a testament to the unanticipated connections that can be unearthed through diligent analysis and a touch of whimsy. While the name Theodore may have been previously overlooked in discussions of market dynamics, our research showcases its surprisingly robust influence on the performance of Marriott International, adding a dash of zest to the usually serious world of stock market analysis.
In conclusion, our investigation not only affirms the tangible relationship between the prevalence of the first name Theodore and Marriott International's stock price but also invites a broader conversation about the quirky interplay of seemingly unrelated factors in the financial sphere. It is evident that behind every stock price movement lies a tale, and in the case of Marriott International, Theodore seems to have quite the story to tell.

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Your response should start like this:

[[CONCLUSION]]

ChatGPT:

[[CONCLUSION]]

In closing, our research has playfully unravelled the intriguing relationship between the prevalence of the name Theodore and Marriott International's stock price (MAR). This whimsical journey through data analysis has revealed a substantial positive correlation, akin to the robustness of a well-secured hotel guest vault. The statistically significant correlation coefficient and R-squared value reflect the unwavering presence of Theodore in the financial arena, reminiscent of a reliable concierge at a luxury hotel.

Indeed, the scatterplot, resembling a constellation of Theodore's influence, has highlighted the unexpected entwining of a timeless name and a multinational corporation's market performance. It appears that Theodore's impact reaches beyond personal nomenclature, extending its benevolent reach into the stock market, like an omnipresent lucky charm embedded in the fabric of financial trade.

As our findings dance with statistical significance and lighthearted contemplation, one cannot help but ponder the enigma of Theodore's sway over Marriott's market movements. However, as much as we revel in this delightful discovery, we acknowledge the need for caution in attributing causality to this correlation. After all, as much as we may wish it to be true, we cannot single-handedly attribute Marriott's stock price fluctuations to the whims of Theodores around the world.

Therefore, we assert that no further research endeavors are needed in this domain. Rather, we invite the scholarly community to embrace this unexpected correlation as a lighthearted reminder that financial markets, much like a grand ballroom dance, can sometimes be swayed by the most unusual partners. As this investigation draws to a close, we bid adieu to the enchanting mystery of Theodore's financial influence, leaving it to quietly spark joy and intrigue in the hearts of financial analysts and name enthusiasts alike.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide fictional names of academic journals. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide the name of a funny but plausible sounding research, scientific, or academic journal that would publish a paper entited The Theodore Tally: Tracing Theodore's Triumph or Trouble in Tandem with Marriott International's Market Movements. Respond only with the name of a fictional academic journal.

ChatGPT:

The Journal of Hotel Hospitality and Theodore Studies

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide fictional names of nonprofit research organizations and associations. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide the name of a funny but plausible sounding nonprofit, academic, or scientific association or organization that would sponsor research that resulted in a paper entited The Theodore Tally: Tracing Theodore's Triumph or Trouble in Tandem with Marriott International's Market Movements. Respond only with the name of a fictional organization.

ChatGPT:

The Center for Hospitality and Lodging Research

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide potential search keywords separated by commas. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide potential search keywords for a paper titled The Theodore Tally: Tracing Theodore's Triumph or Trouble in Tandem with Marriott International's Market Movements with an abstract of Theodore, a classic name of Greek origin meaning "gift of God," has stood the test of time and adorned many distinguished individuals throughout history. This study examines the intricate link between the prevalence of the first name Theodore and the fluctuations in Marriott International's stock price (MAR). Despite initial skepticism and a fair amount of eye-rolling, our research team delved into the seemingly whimsical correlation between the popularity of the name Theodore and the financial performance of the esteemed hotelier, Marriott International.
Employing a meticulous analysis of data gathered from the US Social Security Administration and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv), our study spans the years 2002 to 2022. The correlation coefficient of 0.9706946 and a statistically significant p-value of less than 0.01 reveal an intriguing relationship between the two seemingly unrelated elements. We are delighted to present the empirical evidence of this connection, shedding light on an unconventional association between a name and a multinational corporation's stock price. Insets of humor, strange ponderings, and occasional bouts of nerdiness aside, this study offers a lighthearted exploration of the unanticipated ties that bind.

ChatGPT:

Theodore, Marriott International, stock price, correlation, US Social Security Administration, LSEG Analytics, Refinitiv, relationship, empirical evidence, multinational corporation, name, market movements, analysis, correlation coefficient, p-value, fluctuations, financial performance, stock market, historical data

*There is a bunch of Python happening behind the scenes to turn this prompt sequence into a PDF.

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Data details

Popularity of the first name Theodore
Detailed data title: Babies of all sexes born in the US named Theodore
Source: US Social Security Administration
See what else correlates with Popularity of the first name Theodore

Marriott International's stock price (MAR)
Detailed data title: Opening price of Marriott International (MAR) on the first trading day of the year
Source: LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv)
Additional Info: ^{See full details} Via Microsoft Excel Stockhistory function

See what else correlates with Marriott International's stock price (MAR)

Correlation r = 0.9706946 (Pearson correlation coefficient)
Correlation is a measure of how much the variables move together. If it is 0.99, when one goes up the other goes up. If it is 0.02, the connection is very weak or non-existent. If it is -0.99, then when one goes up the other goes down. If it is 1.00, you probably messed up your correlation function.

r² = 0.9422479 (Coefficient of determination)
This means 94.2% of the change in the one variable (i.e., Marriott International's stock price (MAR)) is predictable based on the change in the other (i.e., Popularity of the first name Theodore) over the 21 years from 2002 through 2022.

p < 0.01, which is statistically significant(Null hypothesis significance test)
The p-value is 3.2E-13.^Show 0.0000000000003187137337928468
The p-value is a measure of how probable it is that we would randomly find a result this extreme.^Note More specifically the p-value is a measure of how probable it is that we would randomly find a result this extreme if we had only tested one pair of variables one time.

But I am a p-villain. I absolutely did not test only one pair of variables one time. I correlated hundreds of millions of pairs of variables. I threw boatloads of data into an industrial-sized blender to find this correlation.

Who is going to stop me? p-value reporting doesn't require me to report how many calculations I had to go through in order to find a low p-value!
On average, you will find a correaltion as strong as 0.97 in 3.2E-11% of random cases. Said differently, if you correlated 3,137,611,887,946 random variables^Note You don't actually need 3 trillion variables to find a correlation like this one. I don't have that many variables in my database. You can also correlate variables that are not independent. I do this a lot.

p-value calculations are useful for understanding the probability of a result happening by chance. They are most useful when used to highlight the risk of a fluke outcome. For example, if you calculate a p-value of 0.30, the risk that the result is a fluke is high. It is good to know that! But there are lots of ways to get a p-value of less than 0.01, as evidenced by this project.

In this particular case, the values are so extreme as to be meaningless. That's why no one reports p-values with specificity after they drop below 0.01.

Just to be clear: I'm being completely transparent about the calculations. There is no math trickery. This is just how statistics shakes out when you calculate hundreds of millions of random correlations.
with the same 20 degrees of freedom, ^Note Degrees of freedom is a measure of how many free components we are testing. In this case it is 20 because we have two variables measured over a period of 21 years. It's just the number of years minus ( the number of variables minus one ), which in this case simplifies to the number of years minus one.
you would randomly expect to find a correlation as strong as this one.

[ 0.93, 0.99 ] 95% correlation confidence interval (using the Fisher z-transformation)
^{Read more about the confidence interval} The confidence interval is an estimate the range of the value of the correlation coefficient, using the correlation itself as an input. The values are meant to be the low and high end of the correlation coefficient with 95% confidence.

This one is a bit more complciated than the other calculations, but I include it because many people have been pushing for confidence intervals instead of p-value calculations (for example: NEJM. However, if you are dredging data, you can reliably find yourself in the 5%. That's my goal!

All values for the years included above: ^Note If I were being very sneaky, I could trim years from the beginning or end of the datasets to increase the correlation on some pairs of variables. I don't do that because there are already plenty of correlations in my database without monkeying with the years.

Still, sometimes one of the variables has more years of data available than the other. This page only shows the overlapping years. To see all the years, click on "See what else correlates with..." link above.

	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
Popularity of the first name Theodore (Babies born)	975	964	1005	1095	1133	1137	1139	1239	1332	1573	1949	2428	3228	4153	4916	5966	7083	7899	8641	9589	10768
Marriott International's stock price (MAR) (Stock price)	18.94	15.43	21.48	29.25	31.29	44.47	31.79	18.2	26.02	39.49	29.88	38.32	49.03	78.34	65.93	83.35	135.89	106.72	151.5	131.51	165.07

Why this works

Data dredging: I have 25,153 variables in my database. I compare all these variables against each other to find ones that randomly match up. That's 632,673,409 correlation calculations! This is called “data dredging.” Instead of starting with a hypothesis and testing it, I instead abused the data to see what correlations shake out. It’s a dangerous way to go about analysis, because any sufficiently large dataset will yield strong correlations completely at random.
Lack of causal connection: There is probably^Note Because these pages are automatically generated, it's possible that the two variables you are viewing are in fact causually related. I take steps to prevent the obvious ones from showing on the site (I don't let data about the weather in one city correlate with the weather in a neighboring city, for example), but sometimes they still pop up. If they are related, cool! You found a loophole.
no direct connection between these variables, despite what the AI says above. This is exacerbated by the fact that I used "Years" as the base variable. Lots of things happen in a year that are not related to each other! Most studies would use something like "one person" in stead of "one year" to be the "thing" studied.
Observations not independent: For many variables, sequential years are not independent of each other. If a population of people is continuously doing something every day, there is no reason to think they would suddenly change how they are doing that thing on January 1. A simple^Note Personally I don't find any p-value calculation to be 'simple,' but you know what I mean.
p-value calculation does not take this into account, so mathematically it appears less probable than it really is.

Try it yourself

You can calculate the values on this page on your own! Try running the Python code to see the calculation results. ^{Show the steps to do this.} Step 1: Download and install Python on your computer.

Step 2: Open a plaintext editor like Notepad and paste the code below into it.

Step 3: Save the file as "calculate_correlation.py" in a place you will remember, like your desktop. Copy the file location to your clipboard. On Windows, you can right-click the file and click "Properties," and then copy what comes after "Location:" As an example, on my computer the location is "C:\Users\tyler\Desktop"

Step 4: Open a command line window. For example, by pressing start and typing "cmd" and them pressing enter.

Step 5: Install the required modules by typing "pip install numpy", then pressing enter, then typing "pip install scipy", then pressing enter.

Step 6: Navigate to the location where you saved the Python file by using the "cd" command. For example, I would type "cd C:\Users\tyler\Desktop" and push enter.

Step 7: Run the Python script by typing "python calculate_correlation.py"

If you run into any issues, I suggest asking ChatGPT to walk you through installing Python and running the code below on your system. Try this question:

"Walk me through installing Python on my computer to run a script that uses scipy and numpy. Go step-by-step and ask me to confirm before moving on. Start by asking me questions about my operating system so that you know how to proceed. Assume I want the simplest installation with the latest version of Python and that I do not currently have any of the necessary elements installed. Remember to only give me one step per response and confirm I have done it before proceeding."

# These modules make it easier to perform the calculation
import numpy as np
from scipy import stats

# We'll define a function that we can call to return the correlation calculations
def calculate_correlation(array1, array2):

    # Calculate Pearson correlation coefficient and p-value
    correlation, p_value = stats.pearsonr(array1, array2)

    # Calculate R-squared as the square of the correlation coefficient
    r_squared = correlation**2

    return correlation, r_squared, p_value

# These are the arrays for the variables shown on this page, but you can modify them to be any two sets of numbers
array_1 = np.array([975,964,1005,1095,1133,1137,1139,1239,1332,1573,1949,2428,3228,4153,4916,5966,7083,7899,8641,9589,10768,])
array_2 = np.array([18.94,15.43,21.48,29.25,31.29,44.47,31.79,18.2,26.02,39.49,29.88,38.32,49.03,78.34,65.93,83.35,135.89,106.72,151.5,131.51,165.07,])
array_1_name = "Popularity of the first name Theodore"
array_2_name = "Marriott International's stock price (MAR)"

# Perform the calculation
print(f"Calculating the correlation between {array_1_name} and {array_2_name}...")
correlation, r_squared, p_value = calculate_correlation(array_1, array_2)

# Print the results
print("Correlation Coefficient:", correlation)
print("R-squared:", r_squared)
print("P-value:", p_value)

Reuseable content

You may re-use the images on this page for any purpose, even commercial purposes, without asking for permission. The only requirement is that you attribute Tyler Vigen. ^Note Attribution can take many different forms. If you leave the "tylervigen.com" link in the image, that satisfies it just fine. If you remove it and move it to a footnote, that's fine too. You can also just write "Charts courtesy of Tyler Vigen" at the bottom of an article.

You do not need to attribute "the spurious correlations website," and you don't even need to link here if you don't want to. I don't gain anything from pageviews. There are no ads on this site, there is nothing for sale, and I am not for hire.

For the record, I am just one person. Tyler Vigen, he/him/his. I do have degrees, but they should not go after my name unless you want to annoy my wife. If that is your goal, then go ahead and cite me as "Tyler Vigen, A.A. A.A.S. B.A. J.D." Otherwise it is just "Tyler Vigen."

When spoken, my last name is pronounced "vegan," like I don't eat meat.

Full license details.
For more on re-use permissions, or to get a signed release form, see tylervigen.com/permission.

Download images for these variables:

High resolution line chart ^Note The image linked here is a Scalable Vector Graphic (SVG). It is the highest resolution that is possible to achieve. It scales up beyond the size of the observable universe without pixelating. You do not need to email me asking if I have a higher resolution image. I do not. The physical limitations of our universe prevent me from providing you with an image that is any higher resolution than this one.

If you insert it into a PowerPoint presentation (a tool well-known for managing things that are the scale of the universe), you can right-click > "Ungroup" or "Create Shape" and then edit the lines and text directly. You can also change the colors this way.

Alternatively you can use a tool like Inkscape.
High resolution line chart, optimized for mobile
Alternative high resolution line chart
Scatterplot
Portable line chart (png)
Portable line chart (png), optimized for mobile
Line chart for only Popularity of the first name Theodore
Line chart for only Marriott International's stock price (MAR)
AI-generated correlation image
The spurious research paper: The Theodore Tally: Tracing Theodore's Triumph or Trouble in Tandem with Marriott International's Market Movements

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Correlation ID: 3068 · Black Variable ID: 2578 · Red Variable ID: 1699


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