Spurious correlation #3,024 · View random
A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is Popularity of the first name Sonny and the second variable is SBA Communications' stock price (SBAC). The chart goes from 2002 to 2022, and the two variables track closely in value over that time.

A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is Popularity of the first name Sonny and the second variable is SBA Communications' stock price (SBAC). The chart goes from 2002 to 2022, and the two variables track closely in value over that time.

Download png, svg

AI explanation

As the name Sonny gained popularity, more people were subconsciously reminded of sunny weather, which put them in a better mood. This led to an increase in outdoor activities, including sightseeing and travel. With more people out and about, there was a greater demand for reliable cellular communication, boosting the need for SBA Communications' services. It seems like the 'Sonny' forecast for SBAC stock was nothing but clear skies and high cell-ular activity!

^{Show image generation prompt} Model: dalle-3
Prompt: Create an image of a sunny beach, featuring crystal blue waters and golden sands, hosting a multitude of cell phone towers. Amongst this backdrop, depict numerous individuals, all named Sonny, capturing selfies and enjoying the sunshine. Additionally, incorporate a stock price graph showing the steady rise of SBA Communications, symbolizing their continuous network expansion to cater to the soaring demand for cell phone coverage in such popular sunny destinations. The depiction should include only scenes, people, and objects, it should not include text or speech bubbles.

This image generation prompt was also generated by AI, using the following sequence:

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You select one of a few potential scene descriptors that seems to go along with the variables described. You respond only with the scene descriptions provided and say nothing else.
User prompt: Here are two variables: Popularity of the first name Sonny and SBA Communications' stock price (SBAC). Given these, which of the following image style descriptions seems most appropriate? Pick the one that seems to be related to one of the variables at hand. Please respond with only one of the following potential descriptions: Charcoal Art nouveau Low poly A scene from Skyrim Realistic
ChatGPT: A scene from Skyrim

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You describe simple visual scenes that depict the two variables stated. You combine both variables into one scene.
User prompt: Please describe a visual scene that prominently depicts both Popularity of the first name Sonny and SBA Communications' stock price (SBAC), in the following situation: Because as more people named Sonny gained popularity, they naturally gravitated towards sunny locations, boosting demand for cell phone towers and driving up SBA Communications' stock price as they expanded their network to accommodate all the new Sonnys posting selfies at the beach.. Keep the description simple.
ChatGPT: A sunny beach dotted with cell phone towers, where crowds of people named Sonny gather to take selfies and soak up the sun. In the background, SBA Communications' stock price graph steadily rises as they expand their network to accommodate the growing demand for cell phone coverage in these popular sunny locations.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You write and improve image generation prompts for DALLE-3. You maintain the same subjects, but enhance the visuals.
User prompt: Please respond with an image generation prompt that would be likely to create an interesting visual using DALLE-3, using the following style: [ A scene from Skyrim ] and depicting this scene: A sunny beach dotted with cell phone towers, where crowds of people named Sonny gather to take selfies and soak up the sun. In the background, SBA Communications' stock price graph steadily rises as they expand their network to accommodate the growing demand for cell phone coverage in these popular sunny locations. Keep the visual depiction simple. Do not include any words or speech bubbles.
ChatGPT: Create an image of a sunny beach, featuring crystal blue waters and golden sands, hosting a multitude of cell phone towers. Amongst this backdrop, depict numerous individuals, all named Sonny, capturing selfies and enjoying the sunshine. Additionally, incorporate a stock price graph showing the steady rise of SBA Communications, symbolizing their continuous network expansion to cater to the soaring demand for cell phone coverage in such popular sunny destinations.

*Variations in the User Prompts from chart to chart are just the result of random number generation in Python. I wrote a few arrays of various styles and methods to ask questions to change up the results. Every time this site writes an explanation or generates an image, the script picks from each at random.

I sequence the requests into multiple prompts because I find GPT 3.5 to perform much better with short, well-managed contexts. Thus, I track the context directly in Python and only ask ChatGPT targeted questions.
^{Show prompt for explanation} Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106 (fine-tuned)
System prompt: You provide humorous responses in the form of plausible sounding explanations for correlations. You assume the correlation is causative for the purpose of the explanation even if it is ridiculous. You do not chat with the user, you only reply with the causal connection explanation and nothing else.
User prompt: Please make up a funny explanation for how an increase in Popularity of the first name Sonny caused SBA Communications' stock price (SBAC) to increase. Include one good pun.

AI academic paper

(Because p < 0.01)

Sonny's Name: Does it Affect SBAC Stock's Game?

The Journal of Finance and Nameology

Jan 2024

Reminder: This paper is AI-generated. Not real!

^{Show prompt used to generate this paper} Quick note: This sequence is long and repetitive. That's how the prompt engineering works for this one. I manage the output in Python to format it into this PDF.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You draft a literature review section of an academic research paper, that starts out dry for the first few sentences but then becomes hilarious and goofy.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up a literature review section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Popularity of the first name Sonny and SBA Communications' stock price (SBAC). You can't resist a good dad joke. Add a relevant dad joke related to the content every couple of sentences.

Speak in the present tense for this section (the authors find...), as is common in academic research paper literature reviews. Name the sources in a format similar to this: In "Book," the authors find lorem and ipsum.

Make up the lorem and ipsum part, but make it sound related to the topic at hand.

Start by naming serious-sounding studies by authors like Smith, Doe, and Jones - but then quickly devolve. Name some real non-fiction books that would be related to the topic. Then name some real fiction books that sound like they could be related. Then name a few real TV shows that sound like they might be relevant to the topic that you watched as research.

Here is the title and abstract of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
"Sonny's Name: Does it Affect SBAC Stock's Game?"

[[ABSTRACT]]
This paper delves into the surprising relationship between the popularity of the first name "Sonny" and the stock price of SBA Communications (SBAC). The research team used data from the US Social Security Administration and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv) to assess this nagging question. The correlation coefficient of 0.9756009 and p < 0.01 for the period from 2002 to 2022 indicates a strong positive association between the two variables. One might say the correlation is as clear as daylight, much like a sunny day. The findings suggest that there might be something to the old saying, "the sun never sets on a profitable stock," or in this case, "Sonny's popularity never sets on SBA Communications' stock price." This study not only sheds light on the curious influence of first names on financial markets but also brings a ray of sunshine into the world of stock market research.

-------

And here is the introduction section that led to this literature review:
[[INTRODUCTION]]
The influence of various factors on stock prices has long been a subject of interest for researchers and investors alike. From macroeconomic indicators to company-specific announcements, the quest to understand the myriad forces shaping stock market movements is unceasing. Amidst this sea of data, an unexpected and charmingly peculiar variable caught our attention - the popularity of the first name "Sonny." This study seeks to investigate the apparently sunny disposition of the stock price of SBA Communications (SBAC) in relation to the ebb and flow of the popularity of this particular moniker.
It is a well-established fact that stock prices are influenced by a multitude of factors, including financial performance, market conditions, and investor sentiment. However, the potential impact of a first name on a stock's value is a relatively unexplored territory. The idea may seem far-fetched, but as the saying goes, "never underestimate the power of the Sun," or in this case, Sonny.
The motivation behind this research stems from the recognition that the financial markets are not devoid of irrational exuberance and psychological biases. While the efficient market hypothesis posits that asset prices reflect all available information, behavioral finance has underscored the significance of non-financial factors in shaping market dynamics. One might say that a carefully chosen name can indeed bring a "sunny" outlook to a stock's performance, much like a cheerful disposition can lighten up a gloomy room. After all, who wouldn't want a beam of sunshine in their investment portfolio?

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]

ChatGPT:
[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]

The relationship between personal names and various aspects of life has been the subject of study by numerous researchers. Smith (2009) found that individuals with more common names tend to receive higher callback rates in the job market, while Doe (2015) suggested that names can significantly influence an individual's romantic prospects. Similarly, Jones (2018) explored the impact of first names on social perceptions and found that individuals with certain names are often perceived as more likable and trustworthy.

However, the connection between the popularity of the specific name "Sonny" and its potential influence on stock prices remains relatively unexplored. Lorem and ipsum (2021) delved into this intriguing phenomenon and discovered a surprisingly strong positive correlation between the frequency of the name "Sonny" and the stock price of SBA Communications (SBAC). The findings indicate a conspicuous association that could not be attributed to mere coincidence.

In "The Intelligent Investor" by Benjamin Graham, the author discusses the importance of rational decision-making in investment strategies, yet fails to mention the potential impact of endearing first names on stock prices. Similarly, "A Random Walk Down Wall Street" by Burton Malkiel emphasizes the notion of stock market efficiency, but overlooks the possibility that a compelling first name could sway investor sentiment in unforeseen ways.

On a more fictional note, literature exploring the concept of names and their influence abounds. J.K. Rowling's "Harry Potter" series introduces a character named "Sirius," whose name is a play on the word "serious," reflecting the character's demeanor. Perhaps there are parallels to be drawn between Sirius Black's name and the serious nature of stock market investments. Furthermore, in George R.R. Martin's "A Song of Ice and Fire" series, the character "Sunset Son" demonstrates a knack for influencing the emotions of those around him, much like the potential impact of the name "Sonny" on stock market dynamics.

In the realm of television, "Sons of Anarchy" presents a compelling narrative about a motorcycle club, offering potential insights into the dynamics of societal influence, albeit in a vastly different context. Meanwhile, "Sunny Side Up" provides a lighthearted and sunny perspective on cooking, which could potentially serve as a metaphor for the impact of the name "Sonny" on SBA Communications' stock price – a delightful blend of flavor and financial performance.

One might jestfully ponder - could the sunniness of "Sonny" be the shining star guiding investors to lucrative profits, or is it simply a case of coincidental correlation? The present study aims to shed light on the seemingly radiant effect of this particular name on stock market dynamics, inviting further exploration into the whimsical world of financial nomenclature. After all, as they say, every "Sonny" brings a little more sunshine into the world.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You draft the discussion section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the discussion section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Popularity of the first name Sonny and SBA Communications' stock price (SBAC). You can't resist a good dad joke. Add a relevant dad joke related to the content every couple of sentences. Stay serious and dry most of the time, but then occasionally let your wit shine through.

Limit your response to 500 tokens.

Here are the title, abstract, literature review, and results sections. Please harken back to 1-2 of the goofy items in the literature review, but pretend to take them completely seriously. Discuss how your results supported the prior research.

Do not write a conclusion. I will add a conclusion after this.

[[TITLE]]
"Sonny's Name: Does it Affect SBAC Stock's Game?"

[[ABSTRACT]]
This paper delves into the surprising relationship between the popularity of the first name "Sonny" and the stock price of SBA Communications (SBAC). The research team used data from the US Social Security Administration and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv) to assess this nagging question. The correlation coefficient of 0.9756009 and p < 0.01 for the period from 2002 to 2022 indicates a strong positive association between the two variables. One might say the correlation is as clear as daylight, much like a sunny day. The findings suggest that there might be something to the old saying, "the sun never sets on a profitable stock," or in this case, "Sonny's popularity never sets on SBA Communications' stock price." This study not only sheds light on the curious influence of first names on financial markets but also brings a ray of sunshine into the world of stock market research.

[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]
The relationship between personal names and various aspects of life has been the subject of study by numerous researchers. Smith (2009) found that individuals with more common names tend to receive higher callback rates in the job market, while Doe (2015) suggested that names can significantly influence an individual's romantic prospects. Similarly, Jones (2018) explored the impact of first names on social perceptions and found that individuals with certain names are often perceived as more likable and trustworthy.
However, the connection between the popularity of the specific name "Sonny" and its potential influence on stock prices remains relatively unexplored. Lorem and ipsum (2021) delved into this intriguing phenomenon and discovered a surprisingly strong positive correlation between the frequency of the name "Sonny" and the stock price of SBA Communications (SBAC). The findings indicate a conspicuous association that could not be attributed to mere coincidence.
In "The Intelligent Investor" by Benjamin Graham, the author discusses the importance of rational decision-making in investment strategies, yet fails to mention the potential impact of endearing first names on stock prices. Similarly, "A Random Walk Down Wall Street" by Burton Malkiel emphasizes the notion of stock market efficiency, but overlooks the possibility that a compelling first name could sway investor sentiment in unforeseen ways.
On a more fictional note, literature exploring the concept of names and their influence abounds. J.K. Rowling's "Harry Potter" series introduces a character named "Sirius," whose name is a play on the word "serious," reflecting the character's demeanor. Perhaps there are parallels to be drawn between Sirius Black's name and the serious nature of stock market investments. Furthermore, in George R.R. Martin's "A Song of Ice and Fire" series, the character "Sunset Son" demonstrates a knack for influencing the emotions of those around him, much like the potential impact of the name "Sonny" on stock market dynamics.
In the realm of television, "Sons of Anarchy" presents a compelling narrative about a motorcycle club, offering potential insights into the dynamics of societal influence, albeit in a vastly different context. Meanwhile, "Sunny Side Up" provides a lighthearted and sunny perspective on cooking, which could potentially serve as a metaphor for the impact of the name "Sonny" on SBA Communications' stock price – a delightful blend of flavor and financial performance.
One might jestfully ponder - could the sunniness of "Sonny" be the shining star guiding investors to lucrative profits, or is it simply a case of coincidental correlation? The present study aims to shed light on the seemingly radiant effect of this particular name on stock market dynamics, inviting further exploration into the whimsical world of financial nomenclature. After all, as they say, every "Sonny" brings a little more sunshine into the world.

[[RESULTS]]
The analysis revealed a remarkably strong positive correlation between the popularity of the first name "Sonny" and the stock price of SBA Communications (SBAC) over the period from 2002 to 2022. The correlation coefficient of 0.9756009 and r-squared of 0.9517971 indicate a robust relationship between the two variables, surpassing many well-established correlations in the financial literature. One could say this relationship is as dependable as a sunny day – or, dare I say, as sunny as the name implies.
The findings suggest that there is indeed substance to the notion that the popularity of the name "Sonny" may have a sunny effect on SBA Communications' stock price. It seems that the power of a name can extend beyond personal identity and influence the fortunes of a publicly traded company – a revelation that might leave some investors feeling quite "illuminated."
The p-value of less than 0.01 further bolsters the strength of this association, providing evidence that the observed correlation is highly unlikely to have occurred due to random chance alone. This statistical significance underscores the weight of the relationship between the two variables, shining a light on the previously overlooked potential impact of first names in the world of stock market dynamics.
To visually capture the compelling correlation, a scatterplot (Fig. 1) was constructed to illustrate the relationship between the popularity of the first name "Sonny" and SBAC's stock price. The scatterplot depicts the data points clustering closely around a distinct upward trend line, reinforcing the robustness of the positive association, much like the unyielding brightness of the sun on a cloudless day.
The results of this analysis not only provide empirical support for the intriguing link between the popularity of the first name "Sonny" and the stock price of SBA Communications but also cast a cheerful light on the often-serious world of financial research. It's safe to say that this study has brought a dose of unexpected sunshine into the realm of stock market analysis, demonstrating the potential influence of the most unexpected variables in shaping market outcomes.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[DISCUSSION]]

ChatGPT:

[[DISCUSSION]]

The results of the present study provide empirical support for the previously proposed notion that the popularity of the first name "Sonny" is positively associated with the stock price of SBA Communications (SBAC). These findings align with the work of Lorem and Ipsum (2021), who first brought attention to the surprisingly strong correlation between the frequency of the name "Sonny" and SBAC’s stock price. It appears that the sunny disposition associated with the name "Sonny" extends beyond personal affability and exerts a tangible influence on the financial realm. Much like the sun itself, the influence of "Sonny" cannot be easily eclipsed.

Furthermore, the positive correlation identified in this study echoes the work of Smith (2009), who found that individuals with more common names tend to receive higher callback rates in the job market. In a similar vein, the increased frequency of "Sonny" may indeed signal a positive reception in the realm of stock market dynamics. It seems that the sunnier the name, the brighter the financial prospects – a correlation that shines through the clouds of traditional financial analysis.

The significant relationship between the popularity of the first name "Sonny" and SBAC's stock price suggests a potential avenue for further exploration in the domain of behavioral finance. The influence of the name "Sonny" on investor sentiment and market dynamics raises intriguing questions about the role of personal nomenclature in shaping financial decisions. One might humorously speculate that investors with the name "Sonny" might have a sunny disposition toward SBAC stock. After all, who wouldn't want to invest in a "Sonny" stock, with its promise of a sunny outlook?

The statistically significant correlation coefficient and p-value provide compelling evidence of the robustness and validity of the relationship between the variables under study. The scatterplot visually reinforces the strength of this association, depicting a close clustering of data points around an upward trend line. This visual representation serves as a sunny confirmation of the lively connection between the popularity of the name "Sonny" and SBAC's stock price, as clear as a cloudless day.

In conclusion, the present study not only illuminates the previously overlooked potential impact of first names on stock market dynamics but also adds a touch of unexpected sunshine to the often-serious world of financial research. These findings encourage scholars to expand their inquiry into the whimsical world of nomenclature and its influence on financial decision-making. It seems that the influence of a name, much like a radiant, unyielding sun, may leave its undeniable mark on the ebb and flow of the financial markets. As the saying goes, when it comes to stock investments, sometimes it pays to keep it "Sonny" side up.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You draft the discussion section of goofy academic research papers that sounds like it belongs based on the title and abstract provided.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up a short conclusion of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Popularity of the first name Sonny and SBA Communications' stock price (SBAC). You can't resist a good dad joke. Add a relevant dad joke related to the content every couple of sentences. Stay serious and dry most of the time, but then occasionally let your wit shine through.

Limit your response to 300 tokens. At the very end, assert that no more research is needed in this area.

Here are the title, abstract, introduction, and results sections.
[[TITLE]]
"Sonny's Name: Does it Affect SBAC Stock's Game?"

[[ABSTRACT]]
This paper delves into the surprising relationship between the popularity of the first name "Sonny" and the stock price of SBA Communications (SBAC). The research team used data from the US Social Security Administration and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv) to assess this nagging question. The correlation coefficient of 0.9756009 and p < 0.01 for the period from 2002 to 2022 indicates a strong positive association between the two variables. One might say the correlation is as clear as daylight, much like a sunny day. The findings suggest that there might be something to the old saying, "the sun never sets on a profitable stock," or in this case, "Sonny's popularity never sets on SBA Communications' stock price." This study not only sheds light on the curious influence of first names on financial markets but also brings a ray of sunshine into the world of stock market research.

[[INTRDUCTION]]
The influence of various factors on stock prices has long been a subject of interest for researchers and investors alike. From macroeconomic indicators to company-specific announcements, the quest to understand the myriad forces shaping stock market movements is unceasing. Amidst this sea of data, an unexpected and charmingly peculiar variable caught our attention - the popularity of the first name "Sonny." This study seeks to investigate the apparently sunny disposition of the stock price of SBA Communications (SBAC) in relation to the ebb and flow of the popularity of this particular moniker.
It is a well-established fact that stock prices are influenced by a multitude of factors, including financial performance, market conditions, and investor sentiment. However, the potential impact of a first name on a stock's value is a relatively unexplored territory. The idea may seem far-fetched, but as the saying goes, "never underestimate the power of the Sun," or in this case, Sonny.
The motivation behind this research stems from the recognition that the financial markets are not devoid of irrational exuberance and psychological biases. While the efficient market hypothesis posits that asset prices reflect all available information, behavioral finance has underscored the significance of non-financial factors in shaping market dynamics. One might say that a carefully chosen name can indeed bring a "sunny" outlook to a stock's performance, much like a cheerful disposition can lighten up a gloomy room. After all, who wouldn't want a beam of sunshine in their investment portfolio?

[[RESULTS]]
The analysis revealed a remarkably strong positive correlation between the popularity of the first name "Sonny" and the stock price of SBA Communications (SBAC) over the period from 2002 to 2022. The correlation coefficient of 0.9756009 and r-squared of 0.9517971 indicate a robust relationship between the two variables, surpassing many well-established correlations in the financial literature. One could say this relationship is as dependable as a sunny day – or, dare I say, as sunny as the name implies.
The findings suggest that there is indeed substance to the notion that the popularity of the name "Sonny" may have a sunny effect on SBA Communications' stock price. It seems that the power of a name can extend beyond personal identity and influence the fortunes of a publicly traded company – a revelation that might leave some investors feeling quite "illuminated."
The p-value of less than 0.01 further bolsters the strength of this association, providing evidence that the observed correlation is highly unlikely to have occurred due to random chance alone. This statistical significance underscores the weight of the relationship between the two variables, shining a light on the previously overlooked potential impact of first names in the world of stock market dynamics.
To visually capture the compelling correlation, a scatterplot (Fig. 1) was constructed to illustrate the relationship between the popularity of the first name "Sonny" and SBAC's stock price. The scatterplot depicts the data points clustering closely around a distinct upward trend line, reinforcing the robustness of the positive association, much like the unyielding brightness of the sun on a cloudless day.
The results of this analysis not only provide empirical support for the intriguing link between the popularity of the first name "Sonny" and the stock price of SBA Communications but also cast a cheerful light on the often-serious world of financial research. It's safe to say that this study has brought a dose of unexpected sunshine into the realm of stock market analysis, demonstrating the potential influence of the most unexpected variables in shaping market outcomes.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[CONCLUSION]]

ChatGPT:

[[CONCLUSION]]

In conclusion, the findings of this study present a compelling case for the association between the popularity of the first name "Sonny" and the stock price of SBA Communications (SBAC). The robust positive correlation observed challenges traditional notions of the factors influencing stock market movements, shedding light on the potential impact of unconventional variables. One might say that the influence of a name can indeed extend to the financial realm, much like a "Sonny" day can brighten even the dullest mood.

This study not only adds an intriguing dimension to the understanding of stock price dynamics but also offers a whimsical reminder of the myriad and unexpected influences at play in the financial markets. As the old adage goes, "a name isn't just a name – it could also be a stock market game-changer," and in this case, a "Sonny" one at that.

Considering the firmness of the correlation and the statistically significant p-value, it becomes clear that dismissing the influence of the name "Sonny" on SBAC's stock performance would be as foolhardy as seeking shade on a sunny day. The evidence speaks for itself – or should I pun, "speaks sunnily"?

In light of these findings, it seems prudent for investors, researchers, and market analysts to consider the potential impact of unconventional variables, including first names, on stock price movements. After all, in the world of finance, as in life, sometimes it pays to look beyond the obvious and embrace the unexpected – much like the unexpected rays of joy a "Sonny" can bring.

In closing, we assert that no further research is needed in this area, as this study has undeniably shown the sunny side of the Sonny-SBAC relationship. It's safe to say that this research has brightened our understanding of the curious connections in the financial world, illuminating the potential impact of the most unlikely variables. As they say, "Why did the Sun go to school? To get a little brighter!"

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide fictional names of academic journals. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide the name of a funny but plausible sounding research, scientific, or academic journal that would publish a paper entited Sonny's Name: Does it Affect SBAC Stock's Game?. Respond only with the name of a fictional academic journal.

ChatGPT:

The Journal of Finance and Nameology

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide fictional names of nonprofit research organizations and associations. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide the name of a funny but plausible sounding nonprofit, academic, or scientific association or organization that would sponsor research that resulted in a paper entited Sonny's Name: Does it Affect SBAC Stock's Game?. Respond only with the name of a fictional organization.

ChatGPT:

The Institute for Surname Influence Studies

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide potential search keywords separated by commas. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide potential search keywords for a paper titled Sonny's Name: Does it Affect SBAC Stock's Game? with an abstract of This paper delves into the surprising relationship between the popularity of the first name "Sonny" and the stock price of SBA Communications (SBAC). The research team used data from the US Social Security Administration and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv) to assess this nagging question. The correlation coefficient of 0.9756009 and p < 0.01 for the period from 2002 to 2022 indicates a strong positive association between the two variables. One might say the correlation is as clear as daylight, much like a sunny day. The findings suggest that there might be something to the old saying, "the sun never sets on a profitable stock," or in this case, "Sonny's popularity never sets on SBA Communications' stock price." This study not only sheds light on the curious influence of first names on financial markets but also brings a ray of sunshine into the world of stock market research.

ChatGPT:

Sonny, SBA Communications, SBAC stock, first name popularity, US Social Security Administration, LSEG Analytics, Refinitiv, correlation coefficient, stock price, financial markets, stock market research

*There is a bunch of Python happening behind the scenes to turn this prompt sequence into a PDF.

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Data details

Popularity of the first name Sonny
Detailed data title: Babies of all sexes born in the US named Sonny
Source: US Social Security Administration
See what else correlates with Popularity of the first name Sonny

SBA Communications' stock price (SBAC)
Detailed data title: Opening price of SBA Communications (SBAC) on the first trading day of the year
Source: LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv)
Additional Info: ^{See full details} Via Microsoft Excel Stockhistory function

See what else correlates with SBA Communications' stock price (SBAC)

Correlation r = 0.9756009 (Pearson correlation coefficient)
Correlation is a measure of how much the variables move together. If it is 0.99, when one goes up the other goes up. If it is 0.02, the connection is very weak or non-existent. If it is -0.99, then when one goes up the other goes down. If it is 1.00, you probably messed up your correlation function.

r² = 0.9517971 (Coefficient of determination)
This means 95.2% of the change in the one variable (i.e., SBA Communications' stock price (SBAC)) is predictable based on the change in the other (i.e., Popularity of the first name Sonny) over the 21 years from 2002 through 2022.

p < 0.01, which is statistically significant(Null hypothesis significance test)
The p-value is 5.7E-14.^Show 0.0000000000000569818944564746
The p-value is a measure of how probable it is that we would randomly find a result this extreme.^Note More specifically the p-value is a measure of how probable it is that we would randomly find a result this extreme if we had only tested one pair of variables one time.

But I am a p-villain. I absolutely did not test only one pair of variables one time. I correlated hundreds of millions of pairs of variables. I threw boatloads of data into an industrial-sized blender to find this correlation.

Who is going to stop me? p-value reporting doesn't require me to report how many calculations I had to go through in order to find a low p-value!
On average, you will find a correaltion as strong as 0.98 in 5.7E-12% of random cases. Said differently, if you correlated 17,549,434,070,920 random variables^Note You don't actually need 17 trillion variables to find a correlation like this one. I don't have that many variables in my database. You can also correlate variables that are not independent. I do this a lot.

p-value calculations are useful for understanding the probability of a result happening by chance. They are most useful when used to highlight the risk of a fluke outcome. For example, if you calculate a p-value of 0.30, the risk that the result is a fluke is high. It is good to know that! But there are lots of ways to get a p-value of less than 0.01, as evidenced by this project.

In this particular case, the values are so extreme as to be meaningless. That's why no one reports p-values with specificity after they drop below 0.01.

Just to be clear: I'm being completely transparent about the calculations. There is no math trickery. This is just how statistics shakes out when you calculate hundreds of millions of random correlations.
with the same 20 degrees of freedom, ^Note Degrees of freedom is a measure of how many free components we are testing. In this case it is 20 because we have two variables measured over a period of 21 years. It's just the number of years minus ( the number of variables minus one ), which in this case simplifies to the number of years minus one.
you would randomly expect to find a correlation as strong as this one.

[ 0.94, 0.99 ] 95% correlation confidence interval (using the Fisher z-transformation)
^{Read more about the confidence interval} The confidence interval is an estimate the range of the value of the correlation coefficient, using the correlation itself as an input. The values are meant to be the low and high end of the correlation coefficient with 95% confidence.

This one is a bit more complciated than the other calculations, but I include it because many people have been pushing for confidence intervals instead of p-value calculations (for example: NEJM. However, if you are dredging data, you can reliably find yourself in the 5%. That's my goal!

All values for the years included above: ^Note If I were being very sneaky, I could trim years from the beginning or end of the datasets to increase the correlation on some pairs of variables. I don't do that because there are already plenty of correlations in my database without monkeying with the years.

Still, sometimes one of the variables has more years of data available than the other. This page only shows the overlapping years. To see all the years, click on "See what else correlates with..." link above.

	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
Popularity of the first name Sonny (Babies born)	220	240	222	250	236	249	258	260	230	254	241	265	259	301	286	332	415	454	572	641	766
SBA Communications' stock price (SBAC) (Stock price)	13.25	0.4	3.9	9.23	17.99	27.59	33.77	16.32	34.35	41	43.32	72.13	89.2	111.31	104.62	105.25	163.08	160.1	241.15	283.1	388.08

Why this works

Data dredging: I have 25,153 variables in my database. I compare all these variables against each other to find ones that randomly match up. That's 632,673,409 correlation calculations! This is called “data dredging.” Instead of starting with a hypothesis and testing it, I instead abused the data to see what correlations shake out. It’s a dangerous way to go about analysis, because any sufficiently large dataset will yield strong correlations completely at random.
Lack of causal connection: There is probably^Note Because these pages are automatically generated, it's possible that the two variables you are viewing are in fact causually related. I take steps to prevent the obvious ones from showing on the site (I don't let data about the weather in one city correlate with the weather in a neighboring city, for example), but sometimes they still pop up. If they are related, cool! You found a loophole.
no direct connection between these variables, despite what the AI says above. This is exacerbated by the fact that I used "Years" as the base variable. Lots of things happen in a year that are not related to each other! Most studies would use something like "one person" in stead of "one year" to be the "thing" studied.
Observations not independent: For many variables, sequential years are not independent of each other. If a population of people is continuously doing something every day, there is no reason to think they would suddenly change how they are doing that thing on January 1. A simple^Note Personally I don't find any p-value calculation to be 'simple,' but you know what I mean.
p-value calculation does not take this into account, so mathematically it appears less probable than it really is.

Try it yourself

You can calculate the values on this page on your own! Try running the Python code to see the calculation results. ^{Show the steps to do this.} Step 1: Download and install Python on your computer.

Step 2: Open a plaintext editor like Notepad and paste the code below into it.

Step 3: Save the file as "calculate_correlation.py" in a place you will remember, like your desktop. Copy the file location to your clipboard. On Windows, you can right-click the file and click "Properties," and then copy what comes after "Location:" As an example, on my computer the location is "C:\Users\tyler\Desktop"

Step 4: Open a command line window. For example, by pressing start and typing "cmd" and them pressing enter.

Step 5: Install the required modules by typing "pip install numpy", then pressing enter, then typing "pip install scipy", then pressing enter.

Step 6: Navigate to the location where you saved the Python file by using the "cd" command. For example, I would type "cd C:\Users\tyler\Desktop" and push enter.

Step 7: Run the Python script by typing "python calculate_correlation.py"

If you run into any issues, I suggest asking ChatGPT to walk you through installing Python and running the code below on your system. Try this question:

"Walk me through installing Python on my computer to run a script that uses scipy and numpy. Go step-by-step and ask me to confirm before moving on. Start by asking me questions about my operating system so that you know how to proceed. Assume I want the simplest installation with the latest version of Python and that I do not currently have any of the necessary elements installed. Remember to only give me one step per response and confirm I have done it before proceeding."

# These modules make it easier to perform the calculation
import numpy as np
from scipy import stats

# We'll define a function that we can call to return the correlation calculations
def calculate_correlation(array1, array2):

    # Calculate Pearson correlation coefficient and p-value
    correlation, p_value = stats.pearsonr(array1, array2)

    # Calculate R-squared as the square of the correlation coefficient
    r_squared = correlation**2

    return correlation, r_squared, p_value

# These are the arrays for the variables shown on this page, but you can modify them to be any two sets of numbers
array_1 = np.array([220,240,222,250,236,249,258,260,230,254,241,265,259,301,286,332,415,454,572,641,766,])
array_2 = np.array([13.25,0.4,3.9,9.23,17.99,27.59,33.77,16.32,34.35,41,43.32,72.13,89.2,111.31,104.62,105.25,163.08,160.1,241.15,283.1,388.08,])
array_1_name = "Popularity of the first name Sonny"
array_2_name = "SBA Communications' stock price (SBAC)"

# Perform the calculation
print(f"Calculating the correlation between {array_1_name} and {array_2_name}...")
correlation, r_squared, p_value = calculate_correlation(array_1, array_2)

# Print the results
print("Correlation Coefficient:", correlation)
print("R-squared:", r_squared)
print("P-value:", p_value)

Reuseable content

You may re-use the images on this page for any purpose, even commercial purposes, without asking for permission. The only requirement is that you attribute Tyler Vigen. ^Note Attribution can take many different forms. If you leave the "tylervigen.com" link in the image, that satisfies it just fine. If you remove it and move it to a footnote, that's fine too. You can also just write "Charts courtesy of Tyler Vigen" at the bottom of an article.

You do not need to attribute "the spurious correlations website," and you don't even need to link here if you don't want to. I don't gain anything from pageviews. There are no ads on this site, there is nothing for sale, and I am not for hire.

For the record, I am just one person. Tyler Vigen, he/him/his. I do have degrees, but they should not go after my name unless you want to annoy my wife. If that is your goal, then go ahead and cite me as "Tyler Vigen, A.A. A.A.S. B.A. J.D." Otherwise it is just "Tyler Vigen."

When spoken, my last name is pronounced "vegan," like I don't eat meat.

Full license details.
For more on re-use permissions, or to get a signed release form, see tylervigen.com/permission.

Download images for these variables:

High resolution line chart ^Note The image linked here is a Scalable Vector Graphic (SVG). It is the highest resolution that is possible to achieve. It scales up beyond the size of the observable universe without pixelating. You do not need to email me asking if I have a higher resolution image. I do not. The physical limitations of our universe prevent me from providing you with an image that is any higher resolution than this one.

If you insert it into a PowerPoint presentation (a tool well-known for managing things that are the scale of the universe), you can right-click > "Ungroup" or "Create Shape" and then edit the lines and text directly. You can also change the colors this way.

Alternatively you can use a tool like Inkscape.
High resolution line chart, optimized for mobile
Alternative high resolution line chart
Scatterplot
Portable line chart (png)
Portable line chart (png), optimized for mobile
Line chart for only Popularity of the first name Sonny
Line chart for only SBA Communications' stock price (SBAC)
AI-generated correlation image
The spurious research paper: Sonny's Name: Does it Affect SBAC Stock's Game?

View another random correlation

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Correlation ID: 3024 · Black Variable ID: 3904 · Red Variable ID: 1883


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