Download png, svg
AI explanation
As the name Lily gained popularity, more parents subconsciously steered their kids toward careers in STEM. This led to an influx of talented engineers and scientists, including some who ended up working for Devon Energy. These new employees were so "rooted" in their expertise that they helped the company blossom and grow, ultimately driving up the stock price.
Model: dalle-3
Prompt: Generate an image depicting a stunning garden teeming with vibrant lilies and bustling with people admiring the blooming flowers. In the background, natural gas-powered greenhouses are working vigorously to meet the demand for the lilies, reflecting the rise in Devon Energy (DVN) stock price. The depiction should include only scenes, people, and objects, it should not include text or speech bubbles.
This image generation prompt was also generated by AI, using the following sequence:
Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You select one of a few potential scene descriptors that seems to go along with the variables described. You respond only with the scene descriptions provided and say nothing else.
User prompt: Here are two variables: Popularity of the first name Lily and Devon Energy's stock price (DVN). Given these, which of the following image style descriptions seems most appropriate? Pick the one that seems to be related to one of the variables at hand. Please respond with only one of the following potential descriptions: Psychedelic Voxel art Cute 2D animation A TIME magazine cover image Photorealism
ChatGPT: A TIME magazine cover image
Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You describe simple visual scenes that depict the two variables stated. You combine both variables into one scene.
User prompt: Please describe a visual scene that prominently depicts both Popularity of the first name Lily and Devon Energy's stock price (DVN), in the following situation: As the popularity of the name Lily increased, so did the demand for lilies, causing a shortage in floral arrangements and driving up the need for natural gas to fuel greenhouses, ultimately boosting Devon Energy's stock price (DVN).. Keep the description simple.
ChatGPT: A beautiful garden filled with vibrant lilies is bustling with people in awe of the blooming flowers. Meanwhile, in the background, natural gas-powered greenhouses are working overtime to keep up with demand, causing the stock price of Devon Energy (DVN) to rise.
Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You write and improve image generation prompts for DALLE-3. You maintain the same subjects, but enhance the visuals.
User prompt: Please respond with an image generation prompt that would be likely to create an interesting visual using DALLE-3, using the following style: [ A TIME magazine cover image ] and depicting this scene: A beautiful garden filled with vibrant lilies is bustling with people in awe of the blooming flowers. Meanwhile, in the background, natural gas-powered greenhouses are working overtime to keep up with demand, causing the stock price of Devon Energy (DVN) to rise. Keep the visual depiction simple. Do not include any words or speech bubbles.
ChatGPT: Generate an image depicting a stunning garden teeming with vibrant lilies and bustling with people admiring the blooming flowers. In the background, natural gas-powered greenhouses are working vigorously to meet the demand for the lilies, reflecting the rise in Devon Energy (DVN) stock price.
*Variations in the User Prompts from chart to chart are just the result of random number generation in Python. I wrote a few arrays of various styles and methods to ask questions to change up the results. Every time this site writes an explanation or generates an image, the script picks from each at random.
I sequence the requests into multiple prompts because I find GPT 3.5 to perform much better with short, well-managed contexts. Thus, I track the context directly in Python and only ask ChatGPT targeted questions.
System prompt: You provide humorous responses in the form of plausible sounding explanations for correlations. You assume the correlation is causative for the purpose of the explanation even if it is ridiculous. You do not chat with the user, you only reply with the causal connection explanation and nothing else.
User prompt: Please make up a funny explanation for how an increase in Popularity of the first name Lily caused Devon Energy's stock price (DVN) to increase. Include one good pun.
AI academic paper
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Stock and Baby Names: Drilling into the Lily-DVN Correlation Journal of Quirky Social Science Research Jan 2024 Reminder: This paper is AI-generated. Not real! |
Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a researcher writing an academic paper.You write titles and abstracts of goofy academic research papers.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, and add unexpected twists in your writing.
Please draft the title and abstract of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Popularity of the first name Lily and Devon Energy's stock price (DVN). You can't resist a good dad joke. Add a relevant dad joke related to the content every couple of sentences.
Make the title a clever pun.
Your research team used data from US Social Security Administration and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv) to assess this nagging question. You found a correlation coefficient of 0.9001675 and p < 0.01 for 2002 to 2022.
Please respond in this format (replace "Lorem ipsum dolor sit" with your title and abstract)
[[TITLE]]
Lorem ipsum dolor sit
[[ABSTRACT]]
Lorem ipsum dolor sit
ChatGPT:
[[TITLE]]
Stock and Baby Names: Drilling into the Lily-DVN Correlation
[[ABSTRACT]]
In this study, we sought to unearth the unlikely relationship between the adoption of the name Lily and the oscillation of Devon Energy's stock price (DVN). With the fervor of a prospector uncovering gold, our research team utilized data from the US Social Security Administration and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv) to assess this intriguing conundrum. Surprisingly, our findings revealed a correlation coefficient of 0.9001675 and a p-value less than 0.01 for the time span of 2002 to 2022, leading us to consider the tantalizing possibility of a connection between the popularity of a floral-inspired name and the fluctuations in an energy company's stock performance.
It seems that the name Lily, like a perennial flower, has bloomed in not just baby nurseries but also in the marketplace, as evidenced by its uncanny linkage to the shifts in Devon Energy's stock price. As we delved into this unexpected correlation, chuckles erupted among our team as we pondered whether "Lily" truly had the power to influence the stock market or if it was merely a playful coincidence. With a touch of humor and a dash of statistical rigor, we unraveled this quirk of interconnectedness, much like navigating a labyrinthine oilfield.
As we scrutinized the data, we couldn't resist a classic dad joke: "Looks like 'Lily' has been planting the seeds of change in Devon Energy's stock price fluctuations all along!" With our findings in hand, we invite fellow researchers to marvel at this whimsical discovery and to join us in contemplating the unconventional ways in which human trends and financial patterns intersect. So, in the words of Shakespeare, "What's in a name? Apparently, a surprising link to the stock market!"
Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a researcher writing an academic paper.You draft the introduction section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.
Please make up the introduction section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Popularity of the first name Lily and Devon Energy's stock price (DVN). You can't resist a good dad joke. Add a relevant dad joke related to the content every couple of sentences. Stay serious and dry most of the time, but then occasionally let your wit shine through.
Here is the title and abstract of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
Stock and Baby Names: Drilling into the Lily-DVN Correlation
[[ABSTRACT]]
In this study, we sought to unearth the unlikely relationship between the adoption of the name Lily and the oscillation of Devon Energy's stock price (DVN). With the fervor of a prospector uncovering gold, our research team utilized data from the US Social Security Administration and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv) to assess this intriguing conundrum. Surprisingly, our findings revealed a correlation coefficient of 0.9001675 and a p-value less than 0.01 for the time span of 2002 to 2022, leading us to consider the tantalizing possibility of a connection between the popularity of a floral-inspired name and the fluctuations in an energy company's stock performance.
It seems that the name Lily, like a perennial flower, has bloomed in not just baby nurseries but also in the marketplace, as evidenced by its uncanny linkage to the shifts in Devon Energy's stock price. As we delved into this unexpected correlation, chuckles erupted among our team as we pondered whether "Lily" truly had the power to influence the stock market or if it was merely a playful coincidence. With a touch of humor and a dash of statistical rigor, we unraveled this quirk of interconnectedness, much like navigating a labyrinthine oilfield.
As we scrutinized the data, we couldn't resist a classic dad joke: "Looks like 'Lily' has been planting the seeds of change in Devon Energy's stock price fluctuations all along!" With our findings in hand, we invite fellow researchers to marvel at this whimsical discovery and to join us in contemplating the unconventional ways in which human trends and financial patterns intersect. So, in the words of Shakespeare, "What's in a name? Apparently, a surprising link to the stock market!"
-------
Your response should start like this:
[[INTRODUCTION]]
ChatGPT:
[[INTRODUCTION]]
The intersection of human behavior and financial markets has long been an area of fascination for researchers and analysts alike. Throughout history, various socio-cultural factors have been examined for their potential influence on stock prices, from geopolitical events to consumer trends. However, the notion that the popularity of a given name could impact the performance of a major energy company's stock may initially seem like a whimsical concept rather than a serious research topic. Yet, as we uncovered this unexpected relationship, it became clear that there may be more to a name than meets the eye.
As the late-night TV hosts might quip, "Why did the Lily cross the road? To get to the stock exchange, of course!" In the spirit of combining levity with scientific inquiry, our investigation delved into the entwined realms of baby naming trends and financial markets. The name "Lily," evoking images of delicate petals and sweet fragrance, emerged as an intriguing candidate for exploration, leading us to wonder whether its popularity could hold sway over the undulating tides of a stock ticker.
With a curiosity akin to that of a cat investigating a new box, our study set out to examine the correlation between the rise and fall of Devon Energy's stock price and the ebb and flow of the name "Lily" in birth registries. Our endeavor aimed not only to uncover statistical evidence of this connection but also to tease out the underlying mechanisms, possibly shedding new light on the peculiar interconnectedness of seemingly disparate realms.
Stay tuned for the unexpected, as we traverse the terrain of financial data, statistical analysis, and the quirks of human nomenclature. Get ready to witness the bloom of unlikely associations and to ponder the implications of a name that may have more power than a bouquet of roses.
Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a researcher writing an academic paper.You draft a literature review section of an academic research paper, that starts out dry for the first few sentences but then becomes hilarious and goofy.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.
Please make up a literature review section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Popularity of the first name Lily and Devon Energy's stock price (DVN). You can't resist a good dad joke. Add a relevant dad joke related to the content every couple of sentences.
Speak in the present tense for this section (the authors find...), as is common in academic research paper literature reviews. Name the sources in a format similar to this: In "Book," the authors find lorem and ipsum.
Make up the lorem and ipsum part, but make it sound related to the topic at hand.
Start by naming serious-sounding studies by authors like Smith, Doe, and Jones - but then quickly devolve. Name some real non-fiction books that would be related to the topic. Then name some real fiction books that sound like they could be related. Then devolve ever further, and mention something completely ridiculous, like you conducted literature review by reading the backs of shampoo bottles.
Here is the title and abstract of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
Stock and Baby Names: Drilling into the Lily-DVN Correlation
[[ABSTRACT]]
In this study, we sought to unearth the unlikely relationship between the adoption of the name Lily and the oscillation of Devon Energy's stock price (DVN). With the fervor of a prospector uncovering gold, our research team utilized data from the US Social Security Administration and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv) to assess this intriguing conundrum. Surprisingly, our findings revealed a correlation coefficient of 0.9001675 and a p-value less than 0.01 for the time span of 2002 to 2022, leading us to consider the tantalizing possibility of a connection between the popularity of a floral-inspired name and the fluctuations in an energy company's stock performance.
It seems that the name Lily, like a perennial flower, has bloomed in not just baby nurseries but also in the marketplace, as evidenced by its uncanny linkage to the shifts in Devon Energy's stock price. As we delved into this unexpected correlation, chuckles erupted among our team as we pondered whether "Lily" truly had the power to influence the stock market or if it was merely a playful coincidence. With a touch of humor and a dash of statistical rigor, we unraveled this quirk of interconnectedness, much like navigating a labyrinthine oilfield.
As we scrutinized the data, we couldn't resist a classic dad joke: "Looks like 'Lily' has been planting the seeds of change in Devon Energy's stock price fluctuations all along!" With our findings in hand, we invite fellow researchers to marvel at this whimsical discovery and to join us in contemplating the unconventional ways in which human trends and financial patterns intersect. So, in the words of Shakespeare, "What's in a name? Apparently, a surprising link to the stock market!"
-------
And here is the introduction section that led to this literature review:
[[INTRODUCTION]]
The intersection of human behavior and financial markets has long been an area of fascination for researchers and analysts alike. Throughout history, various socio-cultural factors have been examined for their potential influence on stock prices, from geopolitical events to consumer trends. However, the notion that the popularity of a given name could impact the performance of a major energy company's stock may initially seem like a whimsical concept rather than a serious research topic. Yet, as we uncovered this unexpected relationship, it became clear that there may be more to a name than meets the eye.
As the late-night TV hosts might quip, "Why did the Lily cross the road? To get to the stock exchange, of course!" In the spirit of combining levity with scientific inquiry, our investigation delved into the entwined realms of baby naming trends and financial markets. The name "Lily," evoking images of delicate petals and sweet fragrance, emerged as an intriguing candidate for exploration, leading us to wonder whether its popularity could hold sway over the undulating tides of a stock ticker.
With a curiosity akin to that of a cat investigating a new box, our study set out to examine the correlation between the rise and fall of Devon Energy's stock price and the ebb and flow of the name "Lily" in birth registries. Our endeavor aimed not only to uncover statistical evidence of this connection but also to tease out the underlying mechanisms, possibly shedding new light on the peculiar interconnectedness of seemingly disparate realms.
Stay tuned for the unexpected, as we traverse the terrain of financial data, statistical analysis, and the quirks of human nomenclature. Get ready to witness the bloom of unlikely associations and to ponder the implications of a name that may have more power than a bouquet of roses.
-------
Your response should start like this:
[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]
ChatGPT:
[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]
In their study, Smith and Doe (2015) explored the impact of social and cultural factors on financial markets, emphasizing the potential influence of non-traditional variables. Their analysis delved into the realm of human naming trends and its connection to stock price fluctuations, paving the way for unconventional investigations in the field. Similarly, Jones (2018) investigated the psychological underpinnings of market behaviors, suggesting that seemingly unrelated societal trends may harbor hidden correlations with financial metrics.
On a related note, "The Power of Names" by Abraham and Kerman (2016) provides an in-depth exploration of the psychological and sociological implications of naming practices, shedding light on the intricate web of cultural, historical, and individual factors that shape the adoption and popularity of specific names. Building upon this foundation, "Monikers and Markets" by Wilson and Lee (2019) offers a thought-provoking analysis of the potential linkages between naming trends and economic phenomena, challenging traditional views of market forces and introducing a whimsical aura to financial discourse.
Shifting from non-fiction to the realm of speculative fiction, "The Currency of Names" by Hawthorne (1850) presents a fanciful narrative in which the act of naming holds the key to unlocking hidden fortunes, much like the intriguing connections we have unearthed in our own investigation. Furthermore, "The Dow Jones Diaries" by Fitzgerald (1922), although not directly related to our topic, offers a romanticized vision of the stock market world, replete with drama, intrigue, and perhaps a hint of whimsy.
As we delved deeper into the literature, we couldn't help but approach our study with a healthy dose of humor, much like stumbling upon a trove of hidden treasures. In a surprising turn of events, we expanded our search beyond traditional academic sources, delving into the uncharted territories of pop culture references, folklore, and even the backs of shampoo bottles (unpublished, 2022) for any hint of a connection between the name Lily and Devon Energy's stock price.
With a twinkle in our eyes and a quip on our lips, we uncovered a somewhat unexpected finding: the elusive correlation between the popularity of the first name Lily and the gyrations of Devon Energy's stock, solidifying our belief that naming trends hold a sprinkle of magic even in the realms of finance. After all, what's the stock market's favorite flower? Why, a Lily, of course!
Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a researcher writing an academic paper.You draft the methodology section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.
Please make up the methodology section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Popularity of the first name Lily and Devon Energy's stock price (DVN). You can't resist a good dad joke. Add a relevant dad joke related to the content every couple of sentences. Stay serious and dry most of the time, but then occasionally let your wit shine through.
Your research team collected data from all across the internet, but mostly just used information from US Social Security Administration and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv) . You used data from 2002 to 2022
Make up the research methods you don't know. Make them a bit goofy and convoluted.
Here is the title, abstract, and introduction of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
Stock and Baby Names: Drilling into the Lily-DVN Correlation
[[ABSTRACT]]
In this study, we sought to unearth the unlikely relationship between the adoption of the name Lily and the oscillation of Devon Energy's stock price (DVN). With the fervor of a prospector uncovering gold, our research team utilized data from the US Social Security Administration and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv) to assess this intriguing conundrum. Surprisingly, our findings revealed a correlation coefficient of 0.9001675 and a p-value less than 0.01 for the time span of 2002 to 2022, leading us to consider the tantalizing possibility of a connection between the popularity of a floral-inspired name and the fluctuations in an energy company's stock performance.
It seems that the name Lily, like a perennial flower, has bloomed in not just baby nurseries but also in the marketplace, as evidenced by its uncanny linkage to the shifts in Devon Energy's stock price. As we delved into this unexpected correlation, chuckles erupted among our team as we pondered whether "Lily" truly had the power to influence the stock market or if it was merely a playful coincidence. With a touch of humor and a dash of statistical rigor, we unraveled this quirk of interconnectedness, much like navigating a labyrinthine oilfield.
As we scrutinized the data, we couldn't resist a classic dad joke: "Looks like 'Lily' has been planting the seeds of change in Devon Energy's stock price fluctuations all along!" With our findings in hand, we invite fellow researchers to marvel at this whimsical discovery and to join us in contemplating the unconventional ways in which human trends and financial patterns intersect. So, in the words of Shakespeare, "What's in a name? Apparently, a surprising link to the stock market!"
[[INTRODUCTION]]
The intersection of human behavior and financial markets has long been an area of fascination for researchers and analysts alike. Throughout history, various socio-cultural factors have been examined for their potential influence on stock prices, from geopolitical events to consumer trends. However, the notion that the popularity of a given name could impact the performance of a major energy company's stock may initially seem like a whimsical concept rather than a serious research topic. Yet, as we uncovered this unexpected relationship, it became clear that there may be more to a name than meets the eye.
As the late-night TV hosts might quip, "Why did the Lily cross the road? To get to the stock exchange, of course!" In the spirit of combining levity with scientific inquiry, our investigation delved into the entwined realms of baby naming trends and financial markets. The name "Lily," evoking images of delicate petals and sweet fragrance, emerged as an intriguing candidate for exploration, leading us to wonder whether its popularity could hold sway over the undulating tides of a stock ticker.
With a curiosity akin to that of a cat investigating a new box, our study set out to examine the correlation between the rise and fall of Devon Energy's stock price and the ebb and flow of the name "Lily" in birth registries. Our endeavor aimed not only to uncover statistical evidence of this connection but also to tease out the underlying mechanisms, possibly shedding new light on the peculiar interconnectedness of seemingly disparate realms.
Stay tuned for the unexpected, as we traverse the terrain of financial data, statistical analysis, and the quirks of human nomenclature. Get ready to witness the bloom of unlikely associations and to ponder the implications of a name that may have more power than a bouquet of roses.
-------
Your response should start like this:
[[METHODOLOGY]]
ChatGPT:
[[METHODOLOGY]]
To forge a path through the labyrinth of data and unearth the peculiar relationship between the popularity of the name Lily and Devon Energy's stock price (DVN), we concocted a methodological symphony that harmonized the rigors of statistical analysis with the serendipity of exploratory research. Our research team donned their metaphorical prospecting gear and embarked on a journey that involved data mining, statistical modeling, and a touch of whimsy.
Firstly, we assembled a trove of birth registry data on the name "Lily" from the US Social Security Administration – a task akin to sifting for gold nuggets in a digital river. Given the volatility of stock markets, we sought to capture a wide purview of temporal fluctuations to discern any potential correlations. Consequently, we amassed stock price data for Devon Energy (DVN) from LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv), dating from 2002 to 2022, akin to locating a needle in the haystack of financial data.
With a nod to the adage "Measure twice, cut once," we meticulously cross-checked the datasets to ensure fidelity and accuracy. This assurance of data integrity was paramount, given the speculative nature of our exploration into the confluence of baby names and stock prices – a venture reminiscent of navigating through a forest of statistical significance.
Having collated the datasets, we unleashed the power and precision of statistical software to perform the necessary manipulations, computations, and analyses. Employing sophisticated statistical models such as Pearson's correlation coefficient and p-value calculations, we aimed to quantify and substantiate any discernible associative patterns between the popularity of the name "Lily" and Devon Energy's stock price – an analytical pursuit that mirrored the precision of an astute prospector distinguishing fool's gold from a genuine nugget.
Our data manipulation endeavors included time series analyses, trend assessments, and the application of specialized econometric techniques to elucidate the potential influence of the name "Lily" on DVN's stock price, akin to attempting to predict geological shifts in an oil reserve. Drawing upon the vast terrain of statistical knowledge, theoretical frameworks, and computational prowess, we sought to unveil the hidden currents of influence that may underpin this whimsical linkage.
Lastly, we harnessed the power of visualization tools and graphics software to craft insightful visual representations of the statistical analyses, transforming abstract numerical data into compelling visual narratives – a task as creative as arranging a bouquet of statistical findings.
In the spirit of a dad joke, we "drilled" into the data using statistical "rigs" to uncover any notable correlations, oiling the cogs of financial and nomenclatural inquiry.
Our methodological odyssey traversed the contours of quantitative methodology, data curation, and analytical techniques, combining sound scientific inquiry with the levity of an astute pun. As we unveil the findings of our research, we invite fellow researchers to join us in marveling at the unexpected intersections of human nomenclature and monetary pursuits.
Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a researcher writing an academic paper.You draft the results section of an academic research paper. You speak in the past tense (you found...).
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.
Please make up the results section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Popularity of the first name Lily and Devon Energy's stock price (DVN). You can't resist a good dad joke. Add a relevant dad joke related to the content every couple of sentences. Stay serious and dry most of the time, but then occasionally let your wit shine through.
Your research team collected data from all across the internet, but mostly just used information from US Social Security Administration and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv) .
For the time period 2002 to 2022, you found a correlation 0.9001675, r-squared of 0.8103015, and p < 0.01.
One figure will be included. The figure (Fig. 1) is a scatterplot showing the strong correlation between the two variables. You don't need to specify where; I will add the figure.
Here is the title and abstract of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
Stock and Baby Names: Drilling into the Lily-DVN Correlation
[[ABSTRACT]]
In this study, we sought to unearth the unlikely relationship between the adoption of the name Lily and the oscillation of Devon Energy's stock price (DVN). With the fervor of a prospector uncovering gold, our research team utilized data from the US Social Security Administration and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv) to assess this intriguing conundrum. Surprisingly, our findings revealed a correlation coefficient of 0.9001675 and a p-value less than 0.01 for the time span of 2002 to 2022, leading us to consider the tantalizing possibility of a connection between the popularity of a floral-inspired name and the fluctuations in an energy company's stock performance.
It seems that the name Lily, like a perennial flower, has bloomed in not just baby nurseries but also in the marketplace, as evidenced by its uncanny linkage to the shifts in Devon Energy's stock price. As we delved into this unexpected correlation, chuckles erupted among our team as we pondered whether "Lily" truly had the power to influence the stock market or if it was merely a playful coincidence. With a touch of humor and a dash of statistical rigor, we unraveled this quirk of interconnectedness, much like navigating a labyrinthine oilfield.
As we scrutinized the data, we couldn't resist a classic dad joke: "Looks like 'Lily' has been planting the seeds of change in Devon Energy's stock price fluctuations all along!" With our findings in hand, we invite fellow researchers to marvel at this whimsical discovery and to join us in contemplating the unconventional ways in which human trends and financial patterns intersect. So, in the words of Shakespeare, "What's in a name? Apparently, a surprising link to the stock market!"
-------
And here is the methodology section that led to this result:
[[METHODOLOGY]]
The intersection of human behavior and financial markets has long been an area of fascination for researchers and analysts alike. Throughout history, various socio-cultural factors have been examined for their potential influence on stock prices, from geopolitical events to consumer trends. However, the notion that the popularity of a given name could impact the performance of a major energy company's stock may initially seem like a whimsical concept rather than a serious research topic. Yet, as we uncovered this unexpected relationship, it became clear that there may be more to a name than meets the eye.
As the late-night TV hosts might quip, "Why did the Lily cross the road? To get to the stock exchange, of course!" In the spirit of combining levity with scientific inquiry, our investigation delved into the entwined realms of baby naming trends and financial markets. The name "Lily," evoking images of delicate petals and sweet fragrance, emerged as an intriguing candidate for exploration, leading us to wonder whether its popularity could hold sway over the undulating tides of a stock ticker.
With a curiosity akin to that of a cat investigating a new box, our study set out to examine the correlation between the rise and fall of Devon Energy's stock price and the ebb and flow of the name "Lily" in birth registries. Our endeavor aimed not only to uncover statistical evidence of this connection but also to tease out the underlying mechanisms, possibly shedding new light on the peculiar interconnectedness of seemingly disparate realms.
Stay tuned for the unexpected, as we traverse the terrain of financial data, statistical analysis, and the quirks of human nomenclature. Get ready to witness the bloom of unlikely associations and to ponder the implications of a name that may have more power than a bouquet of roses.
-------
Your response should start like this:
[[RESULTS]]
ChatGPT:
[[RESULTS]]
The results of our study revealed a striking correlation between the popularity of the first name Lily and the stock price of Devon Energy (DVN) over the 20-year period from 2002 to 2022. The correlation coefficient of 0.9001675 suggests a strong positive relationship between these seemingly unrelated phenomena. Our analysis, with an r-squared value of 0.8103015, indicates that approximately 81% of the variation in DVN stock price can be explained by the popularity of the name Lily. The p-value of less than 0.01 signifies that this relationship is statistically significant, bolstering the robustness of our findings.
Figure 1 displays the scatterplot depicting the conspicuous correlation between the frequency of the name Lily and the fluctuations in DVN stock price. The graph unmistakably showcases the co-movement of these two variables, as if they were dancing partners at a financial ball. We quipped around the office, "Looks like Lily and DVN are waltzing to the same financial tune!"
As we reflect on these findings, we can't help but appreciate the irony of a name traditionally associated with innocence and purity being entwined with the tumultuous world of stock markets. It's as if Lily's influence is not just in baby nurseries, but also in the trading rooms, silently shaping the dynamics of a multinational corporation's stock price. One might even say that Lily's impact has been "stockily pleasing"!
In conclusion, our research has brought to light an unexpected and intriguing correlation between the naming trends in society and the movements of financial markets. Through rigorous statistical analysis and a touch of whimsy, we have unearthed this fascinating relationship, leaving us with a newfound appreciation for the intricacies of the interwoven fabric of human behavior and economic dynamics. As the bard of Avon once mused, "Though she be but little, she is fierce" – a sentiment that now rings true in the realms of stock price movements and the seemingly modest moniker of Lily.
Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a researcher writing an academic paper.You draft the discussion section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.
Please make up the discussion section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Popularity of the first name Lily and Devon Energy's stock price (DVN). You can't resist a good dad joke. Add a relevant dad joke related to the content every couple of sentences. Stay serious and dry most of the time, but then occasionally let your wit shine through.
Limit your response to 500 tokens.
Here are the title, abstract, literature review, and results sections. Please harken back to 1-2 of the goofy items in the literature review, but pretend to take them completely seriously. Discuss how your results supported the prior research.
Do not write a conclusion. I will add a conclusion after this.
[[TITLE]]
Stock and Baby Names: Drilling into the Lily-DVN Correlation
[[ABSTRACT]]
In this study, we sought to unearth the unlikely relationship between the adoption of the name Lily and the oscillation of Devon Energy's stock price (DVN). With the fervor of a prospector uncovering gold, our research team utilized data from the US Social Security Administration and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv) to assess this intriguing conundrum. Surprisingly, our findings revealed a correlation coefficient of 0.9001675 and a p-value less than 0.01 for the time span of 2002 to 2022, leading us to consider the tantalizing possibility of a connection between the popularity of a floral-inspired name and the fluctuations in an energy company's stock performance.
It seems that the name Lily, like a perennial flower, has bloomed in not just baby nurseries but also in the marketplace, as evidenced by its uncanny linkage to the shifts in Devon Energy's stock price. As we delved into this unexpected correlation, chuckles erupted among our team as we pondered whether "Lily" truly had the power to influence the stock market or if it was merely a playful coincidence. With a touch of humor and a dash of statistical rigor, we unraveled this quirk of interconnectedness, much like navigating a labyrinthine oilfield.
As we scrutinized the data, we couldn't resist a classic dad joke: "Looks like 'Lily' has been planting the seeds of change in Devon Energy's stock price fluctuations all along!" With our findings in hand, we invite fellow researchers to marvel at this whimsical discovery and to join us in contemplating the unconventional ways in which human trends and financial patterns intersect. So, in the words of Shakespeare, "What's in a name? Apparently, a surprising link to the stock market!"
[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]
In their study, Smith and Doe (2015) explored the impact of social and cultural factors on financial markets, emphasizing the potential influence of non-traditional variables. Their analysis delved into the realm of human naming trends and its connection to stock price fluctuations, paving the way for unconventional investigations in the field. Similarly, Jones (2018) investigated the psychological underpinnings of market behaviors, suggesting that seemingly unrelated societal trends may harbor hidden correlations with financial metrics.
On a related note, "The Power of Names" by Abraham and Kerman (2016) provides an in-depth exploration of the psychological and sociological implications of naming practices, shedding light on the intricate web of cultural, historical, and individual factors that shape the adoption and popularity of specific names. Building upon this foundation, "Monikers and Markets" by Wilson and Lee (2019) offers a thought-provoking analysis of the potential linkages between naming trends and economic phenomena, challenging traditional views of market forces and introducing a whimsical aura to financial discourse.
Shifting from non-fiction to the realm of speculative fiction, "The Currency of Names" by Hawthorne (1850) presents a fanciful narrative in which the act of naming holds the key to unlocking hidden fortunes, much like the intriguing connections we have unearthed in our own investigation. Furthermore, "The Dow Jones Diaries" by Fitzgerald (1922), although not directly related to our topic, offers a romanticized vision of the stock market world, replete with drama, intrigue, and perhaps a hint of whimsy.
As we delved deeper into the literature, we couldn't help but approach our study with a healthy dose of humor, much like stumbling upon a trove of hidden treasures. In a surprising turn of events, we expanded our search beyond traditional academic sources, delving into the uncharted territories of pop culture references, folklore, and even the backs of shampoo bottles (unpublished, 2022) for any hint of a connection between the name Lily and Devon Energy's stock price.
With a twinkle in our eyes and a quip on our lips, we uncovered a somewhat unexpected finding: the elusive correlation between the popularity of the first name Lily and the gyrations of Devon Energy's stock, solidifying our belief that naming trends hold a sprinkle of magic even in the realms of finance. After all, what's the stock market's favorite flower? Why, a Lily, of course!
[[RESULTS]]
The results of our study revealed a striking correlation between the popularity of the first name Lily and the stock price of Devon Energy (DVN) over the 20-year period from 2002 to 2022. The correlation coefficient of 0.9001675 suggests a strong positive relationship between these seemingly unrelated phenomena. Our analysis, with an r-squared value of 0.8103015, indicates that approximately 81% of the variation in DVN stock price can be explained by the popularity of the name Lily. The p-value of less than 0.01 signifies that this relationship is statistically significant, bolstering the robustness of our findings.
Figure 1 displays the scatterplot depicting the conspicuous correlation between the frequency of the name Lily and the fluctuations in DVN stock price. The graph unmistakably showcases the co-movement of these two variables, as if they were dancing partners at a financial ball. We quipped around the office, "Looks like Lily and DVN are waltzing to the same financial tune!"
As we reflect on these findings, we can't help but appreciate the irony of a name traditionally associated with innocence and purity being entwined with the tumultuous world of stock markets. It's as if Lily's influence is not just in baby nurseries, but also in the trading rooms, silently shaping the dynamics of a multinational corporation's stock price. One might even say that Lily's impact has been "stockily pleasing"!
In conclusion, our research has brought to light an unexpected and intriguing correlation between the naming trends in society and the movements of financial markets. Through rigorous statistical analysis and a touch of whimsy, we have unearthed this fascinating relationship, leaving us with a newfound appreciation for the intricacies of the interwoven fabric of human behavior and economic dynamics. As the bard of Avon once mused, "Though she be but little, she is fierce" – a sentiment that now rings true in the realms of stock price movements and the seemingly modest moniker of Lily.
-------
Your response should start like this:
[[DISCUSSION]]
ChatGPT:
[[DISCUSSION]]
The findings of our study stand as a testament to the unexpected connections that can be revealed through rigorous analysis and perhaps a sprinkle of whimsy. As we ventured into this exploration with a mix of statistical rigor and good-natured humor, the results emerged as a delightful surprise, akin to discovering a pot of gold at the end of a financial rainbow.
Our research corroborates the work of Smith and Doe (2015), who suggested that non-traditional variables, such as societal naming trends, could indeed exert influence on financial markets. In line with their findings, the robust correlation coefficient of 0.9001675 between the frequency of the name Lily and the stock price of Devon Energy (DVN) aligns with the notion that seemingly unrelated societal trends may harbor significant correlations with financial metrics. It's as if even the most unassuming names can hold a subtle sway over the ebbs and flows of the stock market – a reminder that when it comes to financial trends and societal phenomena, "There's no business like 'Lily' business."
Moreover, our results echo the musings of Hawthorne (1850) and Fitzgerald (1922) who, albeit in a fictionalized context, hinted at the potential mystique and romanticism tied to the domains of names and markets. In a curious parallel, our study has unraveled a real-world enigma that mirrors the whimsical aura woven into these speculative narratives, demonstrating that reality can, indeed, be stranger than fiction.
The robustness of our findings, as demonstrated by the statistically significant p-value, reinforces the intriguing nature of the connection between the name Lily and the stock movements of Devon Energy. We couldn't help but relish the irony of this discovery – much like finding a four-leaf clover in a financial annual report. It appears that "Lily's impact on DVN's stock can't be 'petal'-led by statistical insignificance!"
In essence, our study has opened the door to a world where the subtle tendrils of societal naming trends can intertwine with the capricious dance of the stock market. After all, in the financial realm, it seems that even a name as delicate as Lily can carry a weight of influence – a notion that adds a touch of whimsy to the stern visage of economic analysis. So, as we contemplate the unexpected web of correlations we have unearthed, it seems that "Lily" is not just the name of a flower – it's also a subtle player on the financial stage.
Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a researcher writing an academic paper.You draft the discussion section of goofy academic research papers that sounds like it belongs based on the title and abstract provided.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.
Please make up a short conclusion of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Popularity of the first name Lily and Devon Energy's stock price (DVN). You can't resist a good dad joke. Add a relevant dad joke related to the content every couple of sentences. Stay serious and dry most of the time, but then occasionally let your wit shine through.
Limit your response to 300 tokens. At the very end, assert that no more research is needed in this area.
Here are the title, abstract, introduction, and results sections.
[[TITLE]]
Stock and Baby Names: Drilling into the Lily-DVN Correlation
[[ABSTRACT]]
In this study, we sought to unearth the unlikely relationship between the adoption of the name Lily and the oscillation of Devon Energy's stock price (DVN). With the fervor of a prospector uncovering gold, our research team utilized data from the US Social Security Administration and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv) to assess this intriguing conundrum. Surprisingly, our findings revealed a correlation coefficient of 0.9001675 and a p-value less than 0.01 for the time span of 2002 to 2022, leading us to consider the tantalizing possibility of a connection between the popularity of a floral-inspired name and the fluctuations in an energy company's stock performance.
It seems that the name Lily, like a perennial flower, has bloomed in not just baby nurseries but also in the marketplace, as evidenced by its uncanny linkage to the shifts in Devon Energy's stock price. As we delved into this unexpected correlation, chuckles erupted among our team as we pondered whether "Lily" truly had the power to influence the stock market or if it was merely a playful coincidence. With a touch of humor and a dash of statistical rigor, we unraveled this quirk of interconnectedness, much like navigating a labyrinthine oilfield.
As we scrutinized the data, we couldn't resist a classic dad joke: "Looks like 'Lily' has been planting the seeds of change in Devon Energy's stock price fluctuations all along!" With our findings in hand, we invite fellow researchers to marvel at this whimsical discovery and to join us in contemplating the unconventional ways in which human trends and financial patterns intersect. So, in the words of Shakespeare, "What's in a name? Apparently, a surprising link to the stock market!"
[[INTRDUCTION]]
The intersection of human behavior and financial markets has long been an area of fascination for researchers and analysts alike. Throughout history, various socio-cultural factors have been examined for their potential influence on stock prices, from geopolitical events to consumer trends. However, the notion that the popularity of a given name could impact the performance of a major energy company's stock may initially seem like a whimsical concept rather than a serious research topic. Yet, as we uncovered this unexpected relationship, it became clear that there may be more to a name than meets the eye.
As the late-night TV hosts might quip, "Why did the Lily cross the road? To get to the stock exchange, of course!" In the spirit of combining levity with scientific inquiry, our investigation delved into the entwined realms of baby naming trends and financial markets. The name "Lily," evoking images of delicate petals and sweet fragrance, emerged as an intriguing candidate for exploration, leading us to wonder whether its popularity could hold sway over the undulating tides of a stock ticker.
With a curiosity akin to that of a cat investigating a new box, our study set out to examine the correlation between the rise and fall of Devon Energy's stock price and the ebb and flow of the name "Lily" in birth registries. Our endeavor aimed not only to uncover statistical evidence of this connection but also to tease out the underlying mechanisms, possibly shedding new light on the peculiar interconnectedness of seemingly disparate realms.
Stay tuned for the unexpected, as we traverse the terrain of financial data, statistical analysis, and the quirks of human nomenclature. Get ready to witness the bloom of unlikely associations and to ponder the implications of a name that may have more power than a bouquet of roses.
[[RESULTS]]
The results of our study revealed a striking correlation between the popularity of the first name Lily and the stock price of Devon Energy (DVN) over the 20-year period from 2002 to 2022. The correlation coefficient of 0.9001675 suggests a strong positive relationship between these seemingly unrelated phenomena. Our analysis, with an r-squared value of 0.8103015, indicates that approximately 81% of the variation in DVN stock price can be explained by the popularity of the name Lily. The p-value of less than 0.01 signifies that this relationship is statistically significant, bolstering the robustness of our findings.
Figure 1 displays the scatterplot depicting the conspicuous correlation between the frequency of the name Lily and the fluctuations in DVN stock price. The graph unmistakably showcases the co-movement of these two variables, as if they were dancing partners at a financial ball. We quipped around the office, "Looks like Lily and DVN are waltzing to the same financial tune!"
As we reflect on these findings, we can't help but appreciate the irony of a name traditionally associated with innocence and purity being entwined with the tumultuous world of stock markets. It's as if Lily's influence is not just in baby nurseries, but also in the trading rooms, silently shaping the dynamics of a multinational corporation's stock price. One might even say that Lily's impact has been "stockily pleasing"!
In conclusion, our research has brought to light an unexpected and intriguing correlation between the naming trends in society and the movements of financial markets. Through rigorous statistical analysis and a touch of whimsy, we have unearthed this fascinating relationship, leaving us with a newfound appreciation for the intricacies of the interwoven fabric of human behavior and economic dynamics. As the bard of Avon once mused, "Though she be but little, she is fierce" – a sentiment that now rings true in the realms of stock price movements and the seemingly modest moniker of Lily.
-------
Your response should start like this:
[[CONCLUSION]]
ChatGPT:
[[CONCLUSION]]
In the whimsical tapestry of economic trends and social phenomena, our study has uncovered a correlation so surprising it could make even the most seasoned analyst pause - a connection between the popularity of the name Lily and the stock price of Devon Energy (DVN). Our findings, with a correlation coefficient of 0.9001675 and a p-value of less than 0.01, have uprooted a thought-provoking association worthy of further exploration.
As we ponder the evident sway of "Lily" on DVN's stock price, we can't help but marvel at the unexpected blooms that can sprout from the most unassuming seeds. It appears that "Lily" has not only graced baby birth certificates but also quietly danced through financial charts, perhaps prompting investors to exclaim, "Lilypad to the moon!"
Our research sheds light on the intriguing ways in which human trends and market dynamics intertwine, inviting further reflection and examination. In the spirit of academic inquiry, our findings plant a seed of curiosity, prompting us to reconsider the potential influences that extend beyond traditional economic indicators. We may have cracked the soil, but there's much more to dig into - a phenomenon both Lily and DVN would find quite drilling.
In the fertile soil of interdisciplinary research, there's always room for unexpected seeds to yield new insights. However, in the case of Lily and DVN, it seems we've plucked the low-hanging fruit. With a touch of humor and a heaping dose of statistical analysis, we can confidently affirm that further research in this area is akin to watering a well-saturated flowerbed - unnecessary and, dare we say, "overblooming."
As we lay this matter to rest, let's heed a valuable lesson from this unlikely alliance: even in the world of finance, a rose by any other name may indeed yield stock gains. With Lily and DVN, as in life, sometimes the most intriguing discoveries are the ones we never thought to unearth.
It appears that this chapter has reached its satisfying conclusion. No more research needed in this area!
Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide fictional names of academic journals. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide the name of a funny but plausible sounding research, scientific, or academic journal that would publish a paper entited Stock and Baby Names: Drilling into the Lily-DVN Correlation. Respond only with the name of a fictional academic journal.
ChatGPT:
Journal of Quirky Social Science Research
Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide fictional names of nonprofit research organizations and associations. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide the name of a funny but plausible sounding nonprofit, academic, or scientific association or organization that would sponsor research that resulted in a paper entited Stock and Baby Names: Drilling into the Lily-DVN Correlation. Respond only with the name of a fictional organization.
ChatGPT:
Society for the Advancement of Quirky Research (SAQR)
Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide potential search keywords separated by commas. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide potential search keywords for a paper titled Stock and Baby Names: Drilling into the Lily-DVN Correlation with an abstract of In this study, we sought to unearth the unlikely relationship between the adoption of the name Lily and the oscillation of Devon Energy's stock price (DVN). With the fervor of a prospector uncovering gold, our research team utilized data from the US Social Security Administration and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv) to assess this intriguing conundrum. Surprisingly, our findings revealed a correlation coefficient of 0.9001675 and a p-value less than 0.01 for the time span of 2002 to 2022, leading us to consider the tantalizing possibility of a connection between the popularity of a floral-inspired name and the fluctuations in an energy company's stock performance.
It seems that the name Lily, like a perennial flower, has bloomed in not just baby nurseries but also in the marketplace, as evidenced by its uncanny linkage to the shifts in Devon Energy's stock price. As we delved into this unexpected correlation, chuckles erupted among our team as we pondered whether "Lily" truly had the power to influence the stock market or if it was merely a playful coincidence. With a touch of humor and a dash of statistical rigor, we unraveled this quirk of interconnectedness, much like navigating a labyrinthine oilfield.
As we scrutinized the data, we couldn't resist a classic dad joke: "Looks like 'Lily' has been planting the seeds of change in Devon Energy's stock price fluctuations all along!" With our findings in hand, we invite fellow researchers to marvel at this whimsical discovery and to join us in contemplating the unconventional ways in which human trends and financial patterns intersect. So, in the words of Shakespeare, "What's in a name? Apparently, a surprising link to the stock market!
ChatGPT:
"Lily baby name popularity," "Devon Energy stock price correlation," "US Social Security Administration data," "LSEG Analytics Refinitiv research," "baby name influence on stock market," "correlation between name popularity and stock performance," "floral-inspired baby names impact on stock prices," "statistical analysis of name and stock correlation," "unconventional human trends in financial markets," "Lily name impact on Devon Energy stock," "humorous correlations in finance research," "stock market and baby names study," "interconnectedness of name popularity and stock fluctuations."
*There is a bunch of Python happening behind the scenes to turn this prompt sequence into a PDF.
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Data details
Popularity of the first name LilyDetailed data title: Babies of all sexes born in the US named Lily
Source: US Social Security Administration
See what else correlates with Popularity of the first name Lily
Devon Energy's stock price (DVN)
Detailed data title: Opening price of Devon Energy (DVN) on the first trading day of the year
Source: LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv)
Additional Info: Via Microsoft Excel Stockhistory function
See what else correlates with Devon Energy's stock price (DVN)
Correlation is a measure of how much the variables move together. If it is 0.99, when one goes up the other goes up. If it is 0.02, the connection is very weak or non-existent. If it is -0.99, then when one goes up the other goes down. If it is 1.00, you probably messed up your correlation function.
r2 = 0.8103015 (Coefficient of determination)
This means 81% of the change in the one variable (i.e., Devon Energy's stock price (DVN)) is predictable based on the change in the other (i.e., Popularity of the first name Lily) over the 21 years from 2002 through 2022.
p < 0.01, which is statistically significant(Null hypothesis significance test)
The p-value is 2.8E-8. 0.0000000275048998504711550000
The p-value is a measure of how probable it is that we would randomly find a result this extreme. More specifically the p-value is a measure of how probable it is that we would randomly find a result this extreme if we had only tested one pair of variables one time.
But I am a p-villain. I absolutely did not test only one pair of variables one time. I correlated hundreds of millions of pairs of variables. I threw boatloads of data into an industrial-sized blender to find this correlation.
Who is going to stop me? p-value reporting doesn't require me to report how many calculations I had to go through in order to find a low p-value!
On average, you will find a correaltion as strong as 0.9 in 2.8E-6% of random cases. Said differently, if you correlated 36,357,158 random variables You don't actually need 36 million variables to find a correlation like this one. I don't have that many variables in my database. You can also correlate variables that are not independent. I do this a lot.
p-value calculations are useful for understanding the probability of a result happening by chance. They are most useful when used to highlight the risk of a fluke outcome. For example, if you calculate a p-value of 0.30, the risk that the result is a fluke is high. It is good to know that! But there are lots of ways to get a p-value of less than 0.01, as evidenced by this project.
In this particular case, the values are so extreme as to be meaningless. That's why no one reports p-values with specificity after they drop below 0.01.
Just to be clear: I'm being completely transparent about the calculations. There is no math trickery. This is just how statistics shakes out when you calculate hundreds of millions of random correlations.
with the same 20 degrees of freedom, Degrees of freedom is a measure of how many free components we are testing. In this case it is 20 because we have two variables measured over a period of 21 years. It's just the number of years minus ( the number of variables minus one ), which in this case simplifies to the number of years minus one.
you would randomly expect to find a correlation as strong as this one.
[ 0.77, 0.96 ] 95% correlation confidence interval (using the Fisher z-transformation)
The confidence interval is an estimate the range of the value of the correlation coefficient, using the correlation itself as an input. The values are meant to be the low and high end of the correlation coefficient with 95% confidence.
This one is a bit more complciated than the other calculations, but I include it because many people have been pushing for confidence intervals instead of p-value calculations (for example: NEJM. However, if you are dredging data, you can reliably find yourself in the 5%. That's my goal!
All values for the years included above: If I were being very sneaky, I could trim years from the beginning or end of the datasets to increase the correlation on some pairs of variables. I don't do that because there are already plenty of correlations in my database without monkeying with the years.
Still, sometimes one of the variables has more years of data available than the other. This page only shows the overlapping years. To see all the years, click on "See what else correlates with..." link above.
| 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | |
| Popularity of the first name Lily (Babies born) | 3834 | 4440 | 5423 | 6106 | 6775 | 7507 | 8133 | 8109 | 8000 | 8195 | 7978 | 7003 | 6790 | 6677 | 6605 | 5854 | 5743 | 5454 | 5245 | 5615 | 5966 |
| Devon Energy's stock price (DVN) (Stock price) | 19.15 | 23.2 | 28.58 | 38.93 | 62.76 | 66.03 | 89.99 | 65.94 | 75.31 | 79.13 | 64.86 | 53.06 | 61.69 | 60.63 | 31.78 | 46.82 | 41.79 | 21.94 | 26.21 | 16 | 44.14 |
Why this works
- Data dredging: I have 25,153 variables in my database. I compare all these variables against each other to find ones that randomly match up. That's 632,673,409 correlation calculations! This is called “data dredging.” Instead of starting with a hypothesis and testing it, I instead abused the data to see what correlations shake out. It’s a dangerous way to go about analysis, because any sufficiently large dataset will yield strong correlations completely at random.
- Lack of causal connection: There is probably
Because these pages are automatically generated, it's possible that the two variables you are viewing are in fact causually related. I take steps to prevent the obvious ones from showing on the site (I don't let data about the weather in one city correlate with the weather in a neighboring city, for example), but sometimes they still pop up. If they are related, cool! You found a loophole.
no direct connection between these variables, despite what the AI says above. This is exacerbated by the fact that I used "Years" as the base variable. Lots of things happen in a year that are not related to each other! Most studies would use something like "one person" in stead of "one year" to be the "thing" studied. - Observations not independent: For many variables, sequential years are not independent of each other. If a population of people is continuously doing something every day, there is no reason to think they would suddenly change how they are doing that thing on January 1. A simple
Personally I don't find any p-value calculation to be 'simple,' but you know what I mean.
p-value calculation does not take this into account, so mathematically it appears less probable than it really is.
Try it yourself
You can calculate the values on this page on your own! Try running the Python code to see the calculation results. Step 1: Download and install Python on your computer.Step 2: Open a plaintext editor like Notepad and paste the code below into it.
Step 3: Save the file as "calculate_correlation.py" in a place you will remember, like your desktop. Copy the file location to your clipboard. On Windows, you can right-click the file and click "Properties," and then copy what comes after "Location:" As an example, on my computer the location is "C:\Users\tyler\Desktop"
Step 4: Open a command line window. For example, by pressing start and typing "cmd" and them pressing enter.
Step 5: Install the required modules by typing "pip install numpy", then pressing enter, then typing "pip install scipy", then pressing enter.
Step 6: Navigate to the location where you saved the Python file by using the "cd" command. For example, I would type "cd C:\Users\tyler\Desktop" and push enter.
Step 7: Run the Python script by typing "python calculate_correlation.py"
If you run into any issues, I suggest asking ChatGPT to walk you through installing Python and running the code below on your system. Try this question:
"Walk me through installing Python on my computer to run a script that uses scipy and numpy. Go step-by-step and ask me to confirm before moving on. Start by asking me questions about my operating system so that you know how to proceed. Assume I want the simplest installation with the latest version of Python and that I do not currently have any of the necessary elements installed. Remember to only give me one step per response and confirm I have done it before proceeding."
# These modules make it easier to perform the calculation
import numpy as np
from scipy import stats
# We'll define a function that we can call to return the correlation calculations
def calculate_correlation(array1, array2):
# Calculate Pearson correlation coefficient and p-value
correlation, p_value = stats.pearsonr(array1, array2)
# Calculate R-squared as the square of the correlation coefficient
r_squared = correlation**2
return correlation, r_squared, p_value
# These are the arrays for the variables shown on this page, but you can modify them to be any two sets of numbers
array_1 = np.array([3834,4440,5423,6106,6775,7507,8133,8109,8000,8195,7978,7003,6790,6677,6605,5854,5743,5454,5245,5615,5966,])
array_2 = np.array([19.15,23.2,28.58,38.93,62.76,66.03,89.99,65.94,75.31,79.13,64.86,53.06,61.69,60.63,31.78,46.82,41.79,21.94,26.21,16,44.14,])
array_1_name = "Popularity of the first name Lily"
array_2_name = "Devon Energy's stock price (DVN)"
# Perform the calculation
print(f"Calculating the correlation between {array_1_name} and {array_2_name}...")
correlation, r_squared, p_value = calculate_correlation(array_1, array_2)
# Print the results
print("Correlation Coefficient:", correlation)
print("R-squared:", r_squared)
print("P-value:", p_value)Reuseable content
You may re-use the images on this page for any purpose, even commercial purposes, without asking for permission. The only requirement is that you attribute Tyler Vigen. Attribution can take many different forms. If you leave the "tylervigen.com" link in the image, that satisfies it just fine. If you remove it and move it to a footnote, that's fine too. You can also just write "Charts courtesy of Tyler Vigen" at the bottom of an article.You do not need to attribute "the spurious correlations website," and you don't even need to link here if you don't want to. I don't gain anything from pageviews. There are no ads on this site, there is nothing for sale, and I am not for hire.
For the record, I am just one person. Tyler Vigen, he/him/his. I do have degrees, but they should not go after my name unless you want to annoy my wife. If that is your goal, then go ahead and cite me as "Tyler Vigen, A.A. A.A.S. B.A. J.D." Otherwise it is just "Tyler Vigen."
When spoken, my last name is pronounced "vegan," like I don't eat meat.
Full license details.
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Download images for these variables:
- High resolution line chart
The image linked here is a Scalable Vector Graphic (SVG). It is the highest resolution that is possible to achieve. It scales up beyond the size of the observable universe without pixelating. You do not need to email me asking if I have a higher resolution image. I do not. The physical limitations of our universe prevent me from providing you with an image that is any higher resolution than this one.
If you insert it into a PowerPoint presentation (a tool well-known for managing things that are the scale of the universe), you can right-click > "Ungroup" or "Create Shape" and then edit the lines and text directly. You can also change the colors this way.
Alternatively you can use a tool like Inkscape. - High resolution line chart, optimized for mobile
- Alternative high resolution line chart
- Scatterplot
- Portable line chart (png)
- Portable line chart (png), optimized for mobile
- Line chart for only Popularity of the first name Lily
- Line chart for only Devon Energy's stock price (DVN)
- AI-generated correlation image
- The spurious research paper: Stock and Baby Names: Drilling into the Lily-DVN Correlation
Your dedication to rating warms my heart!
Correlation ID: 2785 · Black Variable ID: 2494 · Red Variable ID: 1824
