Spurious correlation #2,475 · View random
A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is Arson in Hawaii and the second variable is China's Rare Earth Element Export Volume. The chart goes from 2005 to 2015, and the two variables track closely in value over that time.

A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is Arson in Hawaii and the second variable is China's Rare Earth Element Export Volume. The chart goes from 2005 to 2015, and the two variables track closely in value over that time.

Download png, svg

AI explanation

As the saying goes, 'Hawaii is the land of aloha, not the land of a-blaze-a,' and with fewer fires, the demand for fire-resistant materials like rare earth elements from China has cooled down. It's a case of arson in one place igniting a fiery need elsewhere, but it seems like these elements are just not feeling the heat like before.

^{Show image generation prompt} Model: dalle-3
Prompt: Generate an image of a serene Hawaiian landscape, with a warehouse in the background overflowing with vibrant stacks of fire extinguishers amid the lush greenery. Meanwhile, in the foreground, depict a Chinese warehouse filled with rare earth elements elegantly arranged, shimmering under the light. The woodblock painting style should capture the essence of tranquility juxtaposed with the visual representation of surplus and decline affecting international trade. The depiction should include only scenes, people, and objects, it should not include text or speech bubbles.

This image generation prompt was also generated by AI, using the following sequence:

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You select one of a few potential scene descriptors that seems to go along with the variables described. You respond only with the scene descriptions provided and say nothing else.
User prompt: Here are two variables: Arson in Hawaii and China's Rare Earth Element Export Volume. Given these, which of the following image style descriptions seems most appropriate? Pick the one that seems to be related to one of the variables at hand. Please respond with only one of the following potential descriptions: Realistic A Discovery magazine cover image Symbolism Cyberpunk Woodblock painting
ChatGPT: Woodblock painting

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You describe simple visual scenes that depict the two variables stated. You combine both variables into one scene.
User prompt: Please describe a visual scene that prominently depicts both Arson in Hawaii and China's Rare Earth Element Export Volume, in the following situation: The decrease in Arson in Hawaii led to a reduced demand for fire extinguishers. This lower demand caused a surplus of fire extinguishers in the global market, leading to a decrease in overall trade volume. Consequently, China's Rare Earth Element Export Volume took a hit, as the surplus of fire extinguishers somehow disrupted the delicate balance of international trade. Who would have thought that Hawaii's arson rates had such a fiery impact on the rare earth element market in China!. Keep the description simple.
ChatGPT: In Hawaii, the number of arson incidents decreased, leading to a surplus of fire extinguishers piled up in a warehouse. The surplus caused a decrease in trade volume, affecting international markets. Meanwhile in China, the rare earth element export volume declined, depicted by the stockpile of unused rare earth elements lying untouched.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You write and improve image generation prompts for DALLE-3. You maintain the same subjects, but enhance the visuals.
User prompt: Please respond with an image generation prompt that would be likely to create an interesting visual using DALLE-3, using the following style: [ Woodblock painting ] and depicting this scene: In Hawaii, the number of arson incidents decreased, leading to a surplus of fire extinguishers piled up in a warehouse. The surplus caused a decrease in trade volume, affecting international markets. Meanwhile in China, the rare earth element export volume declined, depicted by the stockpile of unused rare earth elements lying untouched. Keep the visual depiction simple. Do not include any words or speech bubbles.
ChatGPT: Generate an image of a serene Hawaiian landscape, with a warehouse in the background overflowing with vibrant stacks of fire extinguishers amid the lush greenery. Meanwhile, in the foreground, depict a Chinese warehouse filled with rare earth elements elegantly arranged, shimmering under the light. The woodblock painting style should capture the essence of tranquility juxtaposed with the visual representation of surplus and decline affecting international trade.

*Variations in the User Prompts from chart to chart are just the result of random number generation in Python. I wrote a few arrays of various styles and methods to ask questions to change up the results. Every time this site writes an explanation or generates an image, the script picks from each at random.

I sequence the requests into multiple prompts because I find GPT 3.5 to perform much better with short, well-managed contexts. Thus, I track the context directly in Python and only ask ChatGPT targeted questions.
^{Show prompt for explanation} Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106 (fine-tuned)
System prompt: You provide humorous responses in the form of plausible sounding explanations for correlations. You assume the correlation is causative for the purpose of the explanation even if it is ridiculous. You do not chat with the user, you only reply with the causal connection explanation and nothing else.
User prompt: Please make up a funny explanation for how a decrease in Arson in Hawaii caused China's Rare Earth Element Export Volume to decrease.

AI academic paper

(Because p < 0.01)

Setting Fire to the Charts: Exploring the Fiery Connection Between Arson in Hawaii and China's Rare Earth Element Export Volume

The Journal of Pyrotechnic Economics and Geopolitical Relations

Jan 2024

Reminder: This paper is AI-generated. Not real!

^{Show prompt used to generate this paper} Quick note: This sequence is long and repetitive. That's how the prompt engineering works for this one. I manage the output in Python to format it into this PDF.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a goofy academic researcher writing an academic paper. You follow the rules, but you throw out convention regularly to make jokes and funny asides.You draft a literature review section of an academic research paper, that starts out dry for the first few sentences but then becomes hilarious and goofy.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up a literature review section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Arson in Hawaii and China's Rare Earth Element Export Volume. Make it seem dry like academic research paper, but with lots of subtle hidden offhand remarks, jokes, goofy observations, and puns.

Speak in the present tense for this section (the authors find...), as is common in academic research paper literature reviews. Name the sources in a format similar to this: In "Book," the authors find lorem and ipsum.

Make up the lorem and ipsum part, but make it sound related to the topic at hand.

Start by naming serious-sounding studies by authors like Smith, Doe, and Jones - but then quickly devolve. Name some real non-fiction books that would be related to the topic. Then name some real fiction books that sound like they could be related. Then name some movies that you watched that are tangentially related to the topic.

Here is the title and abstract of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
Setting Fire to the Charts: Exploring the Fiery Connection Between Arson in Hawaii and China's Rare Earth Element Export Volume

[[ABSTRACT]]
In this study, we meticulously examine the possible correlation between the incidence of arson in Hawaii and China's export volume of rare earth elements. While the connection may seem as elusive as a lei-wearing unicorn, our findings reveal a striking statistical association. By analyzing data from the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services and Statista for the period from 2005 to 2015, we obtained a correlation coefficient of 0.9380098 and a p-value less than 0.01, indicating a strong relationship.

Our thorough investigation not only sheds light on this unexpected relationship, but also uncovers potential economic and environmental implications. This research not only sparks curiosity, but also ignites the imagination, as we delve into the fiery intersection of criminal behavior and global trade patterns. So, join us as we fan the flames of knowledge and uncover the flaming-hot connection between seemingly unrelated events.

-------

And here is the introduction section that led to this literature review:
[[INTRODUCTION]]
The incendiary nature of our research has led us to explore an unexpected connection between two seemingly disparate phenomena: arson in Hawaii and China's rare earth element export volume. While on the surface, these two variables may appear as incongruous as pineapples and pandas, our statistical analysis has revealed a scorching correlation that will set your research interests ablaze.
As scholars, we are constantly reminded that correlation does not imply causation, but in our case, the correlation coefficient of 0.9380098 practically waves a bright, flaming flag in our faces, suggesting a compelling relationship. This robust statistical association is as rare as a unicorn sighting on Waikiki beach, and it has left us more excited than a scientist discovering a new element on the periodic table.
Arson, typically associated with the criminal justice system, and rare earth element export volume, often viewed through the lens of international trade, may seem like a scientific odd couple, but our findings suggest a bond as strong as the covalent bonds that hold rare earth elements together. Our investigation aims to unlock the mysterious chemistry between these variables, not just for the thrill of discovery, but to shed light on potential economic and environmental implications.
Ah, the thrill of uncovering unexpected connections in science! It's like stumbling upon a hidden treasure trove in the attic of academia – both exhilarating and slightly bewildering. But fear not, dear reader, for our meticulous scrutiny of the data will guide you through this unique journey, as we venture into the heart of this fiery fusion of criminal behavior and global trade patterns, armed with statistical tools that are sharper than a freshly honed laboratory pipette.
So, fasten your metaphorical seatbelts as we embark on a hot pursuit of knowledge, stoking the flames of curiosity and extinguishing any doubts about the relevance of our intriguing findings. Our investigation promises to set your academic curiosity alight and ignite your imagination as we delve into the unexplored territory of this combustible correlation. Let's venture forth and uncover the inferno of insights that await us in the intersection of arson on the islands and the export of rare earth elements.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]

ChatGPT:
[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]

The understanding of arson, particularly in the context of Hawaii, and its potential correlation with China's export volume of rare earth elements has been an area of limited study within the academic community. However, a growing body of literature offers insights into related topics and provides a foundation for exploring this unexpected but intriguing connection.

Smith et al. (2010) conducted a comprehensive analysis of arson incidents in island regions, focusing on the unique environmental and socioeconomic factors that may contribute to such occurrences. The study sheds light on the complexities of fire-related crimes in island settings, providing a valuable framework for understanding the context of Hawaii's arson incidents.

Doe and Jones (2013) explored the global trade dynamics of rare earth elements, offering a detailed examination of China's dominant position in the market. Their work not only highlights the economic significance of rare earth elements but also underscores the intricate connections between international trade patterns and geopolitical factors.

Moving beyond the realm of scholarly articles, several non-fiction books have delved into the fascinating realms of arson investigations and global trade dynamics. "Fire and Fury: The Economics of Arson" by John Blaze presents a thought-provoking analysis of arson's economic impact, while "The Rare Earth Elements: Fundamentals and Applications" by Peter Rare uncovers the intricate web of global trade in rare earth elements.

In addition to non-fiction works, the realm of fiction also offers intriguing narratives that intersect with our research interests. "A Song of Fire and Rare Earth" by George R. R. Martite explores a world where elemental powers and trade disputes collide, drawing parallels to the complex relationship between arson and rare earth element exports.

Moreover, cinematic productions have depicted elements relevant to our investigation. The film "Lava and Dragons: A Tale of Island Mysteries" intertwines volcanic eruptions, international intrigue, and ancient prophecies, offering an imaginative representation of the interconnectedness of environmental and economic factors.

These diverse sources, although not directly addressing the specific correlation under study, contribute to the broader understanding of arson, trade dynamics, and elemental phenomena. As we navigate this literature landscape, we approach the intersection of our research interests with a keen eye for uncovering unexpected connections and igniting new perspectives.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a goofy academic researcher writing an academic paper. You follow the rules, but you throw out convention regularly to make jokes and funny asides.You draft the methodology section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the methodology section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Arson in Hawaii and China's Rare Earth Element Export Volume. Make it seem dry like academic research paper, but with lots of subtle hidden offhand remarks, jokes, goofy observations, and puns. Sneak in some jokes and clever puns about science, research, statistics, and the variables.

Your research team collected data from all across the internet, but mostly just used information from FBI Criminal Justice Information Services and Statista . You used data from 2005 to 2015

Make up the research methods you don't know. Make them a bit goofy and convoluted.

Here is the title, abstract, and introduction of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
Setting Fire to the Charts: Exploring the Fiery Connection Between Arson in Hawaii and China's Rare Earth Element Export Volume

[[ABSTRACT]]
In this study, we meticulously examine the possible correlation between the incidence of arson in Hawaii and China's export volume of rare earth elements. While the connection may seem as elusive as a lei-wearing unicorn, our findings reveal a striking statistical association. By analyzing data from the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services and Statista for the period from 2005 to 2015, we obtained a correlation coefficient of 0.9380098 and a p-value less than 0.01, indicating a strong relationship.

Our thorough investigation not only sheds light on this unexpected relationship, but also uncovers potential economic and environmental implications. This research not only sparks curiosity, but also ignites the imagination, as we delve into the fiery intersection of criminal behavior and global trade patterns. So, join us as we fan the flames of knowledge and uncover the flaming-hot connection between seemingly unrelated events.

[[INTRODUCTION]]
The incendiary nature of our research has led us to explore an unexpected connection between two seemingly disparate phenomena: arson in Hawaii and China's rare earth element export volume. While on the surface, these two variables may appear as incongruous as pineapples and pandas, our statistical analysis has revealed a scorching correlation that will set your research interests ablaze.
As scholars, we are constantly reminded that correlation does not imply causation, but in our case, the correlation coefficient of 0.9380098 practically waves a bright, flaming flag in our faces, suggesting a compelling relationship. This robust statistical association is as rare as a unicorn sighting on Waikiki beach, and it has left us more excited than a scientist discovering a new element on the periodic table.
Arson, typically associated with the criminal justice system, and rare earth element export volume, often viewed through the lens of international trade, may seem like a scientific odd couple, but our findings suggest a bond as strong as the covalent bonds that hold rare earth elements together. Our investigation aims to unlock the mysterious chemistry between these variables, not just for the thrill of discovery, but to shed light on potential economic and environmental implications.
Ah, the thrill of uncovering unexpected connections in science! It's like stumbling upon a hidden treasure trove in the attic of academia – both exhilarating and slightly bewildering. But fear not, dear reader, for our meticulous scrutiny of the data will guide you through this unique journey, as we venture into the heart of this fiery fusion of criminal behavior and global trade patterns, armed with statistical tools that are sharper than a freshly honed laboratory pipette.
So, fasten your metaphorical seatbelts as we embark on a hot pursuit of knowledge, stoking the flames of curiosity and extinguishing any doubts about the relevance of our intriguing findings. Our investigation promises to set your academic curiosity alight and ignite your imagination as we delve into the unexplored territory of this combustible correlation. Let's venture forth and uncover the inferno of insights that await us in the intersection of arson on the islands and the export of rare earth elements.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[METHODOLOGY]]

ChatGPT:

[[METHODOLOGY]]

To unveil the fiery connection between arson in Hawaii and China's rare earth element export volume, we employed a tantalizing mix of data collection, statistical analysis, and a dash of academic daring. Our research team scoured the digital landscape, meticulously harvesting data from sources including but not limited to the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services and the fertile fields of Statista. This digital treasure hunt yielded a rich dataset spanning the years 2005 to 2015, providing a robust foundation for our scorching investigation.

With our metaphorical laboratory coats buttoned up to the collar, we first navigated through the intricate landscape of rare earth element export volume data from China. This involved sifting through trade statistics, market analyses, and geopolitical dynamics, akin to traversing a dense jungle in search of the rarest orchid. The complexities of international trade patterns were as intricate as a molecular structure, but we persevered, armed with statistical compasses and a keen eye for hidden patterns.

Simultaneously, we embarked on a quest to capture the flaming footprint of arson incidents in Hawaii. Traversing through crime statistics, geographical profiles, and oscillating tourism trends, we found ourselves engulfed in the smoky trail of data as we uncovered the incendiary patterns embedded within this unique island domain. The nuances of criminal activity intertwined with socio-economic dynamics provided a challenge akin to balancing chemical equations, but our pursuit of understanding remained steadfast.

With our data treasure chest overflowing, we called upon the ancient arts of statistical analysis to uncover the potential correlation between these seemingly divergent variables. Our trusty companion, the Pearson correlation coefficient, stood by our side like a stalwart guardian, ready to quantify the intensity of the fiery bond between arson in Hawaii and China’s rare earth element export volume. Through rigorous hypothesis testing and the wielding of p-values sharper than Occam's razor, we assessed the robustness of this statistical relationship, ensuring that our findings would withstand the blazing scrutiny of scientific rigor.

But our journey did not end here. We navigated through the thorny thickets of outlier detection, ensuring that no statistical ember would cast doubt upon the validity of our scorching conclusions. Our aim was not just to illuminate the correlation, but to ensure that our findings would burn brightly in the scholarly arena, shining like a supernova amidst the inky depths of academic inquiry.

Fueled by a fervent passion for uncovering hidden connections and propelled by the irrepressible excitement of scientific discovery, we emerged from this methodological odyssey with a trove of data and a scorching determination to unleash the inferno of our findings upon the world. For as much as the scholarly pursuit may be akin to scaling a rigorous mountain of knowledge, our rigorous methods and meticulous exploration have ultimately set the stage for a truly illuminating revelation.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a goofy academic researcher writing an academic paper. You follow the rules, but you throw out convention regularly to make jokes and funny asides.You draft the results section of an academic research paper. You speak in the past tense (you found...).
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the results section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Arson in Hawaii and China's Rare Earth Element Export Volume. Make it seem dry like academic research paper, but with lots of subtle hidden offhand remarks, jokes, goofy observations, and puns. Sneak in some jokes and clever puns about science, research, statistics, and the variables.

Your research team collected data from all across the internet, but mostly just used information from FBI Criminal Justice Information Services and Statista .

For the time period 2005 to 2015, you found a correlation 0.9380098, r-squared of 0.8798625, and p < 0.01.

One figure will be included. The figure (Fig. 1) is a scatterplot showing the strong correlation between the two variables. You don't need to specify where; I will add the figure.

Here is the title and abstract of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
Setting Fire to the Charts: Exploring the Fiery Connection Between Arson in Hawaii and China's Rare Earth Element Export Volume

[[ABSTRACT]]
In this study, we meticulously examine the possible correlation between the incidence of arson in Hawaii and China's export volume of rare earth elements. While the connection may seem as elusive as a lei-wearing unicorn, our findings reveal a striking statistical association. By analyzing data from the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services and Statista for the period from 2005 to 2015, we obtained a correlation coefficient of 0.9380098 and a p-value less than 0.01, indicating a strong relationship.

Our thorough investigation not only sheds light on this unexpected relationship, but also uncovers potential economic and environmental implications. This research not only sparks curiosity, but also ignites the imagination, as we delve into the fiery intersection of criminal behavior and global trade patterns. So, join us as we fan the flames of knowledge and uncover the flaming-hot connection between seemingly unrelated events.

-------

And here is the methodology section that led to this result:
[[METHODOLOGY]]
The incendiary nature of our research has led us to explore an unexpected connection between two seemingly disparate phenomena: arson in Hawaii and China's rare earth element export volume. While on the surface, these two variables may appear as incongruous as pineapples and pandas, our statistical analysis has revealed a scorching correlation that will set your research interests ablaze.
As scholars, we are constantly reminded that correlation does not imply causation, but in our case, the correlation coefficient of 0.9380098 practically waves a bright, flaming flag in our faces, suggesting a compelling relationship. This robust statistical association is as rare as a unicorn sighting on Waikiki beach, and it has left us more excited than a scientist discovering a new element on the periodic table.
Arson, typically associated with the criminal justice system, and rare earth element export volume, often viewed through the lens of international trade, may seem like a scientific odd couple, but our findings suggest a bond as strong as the covalent bonds that hold rare earth elements together. Our investigation aims to unlock the mysterious chemistry between these variables, not just for the thrill of discovery, but to shed light on potential economic and environmental implications.
Ah, the thrill of uncovering unexpected connections in science! It's like stumbling upon a hidden treasure trove in the attic of academia – both exhilarating and slightly bewildering. But fear not, dear reader, for our meticulous scrutiny of the data will guide you through this unique journey, as we venture into the heart of this fiery fusion of criminal behavior and global trade patterns, armed with statistical tools that are sharper than a freshly honed laboratory pipette.
So, fasten your metaphorical seatbelts as we embark on a hot pursuit of knowledge, stoking the flames of curiosity and extinguishing any doubts about the relevance of our intriguing findings. Our investigation promises to set your academic curiosity alight and ignite your imagination as we delve into the unexplored territory of this combustible correlation. Let's venture forth and uncover the inferno of insights that await us in the intersection of arson on the islands and the export of rare earth elements.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[RESULTS]]

ChatGPT:

[[RESULTS]]

Our scorching investigation into the connection between arson in Hawaii and China's rare earth element export volume yielded some truly enlightening results. The statistical analysis from 2005 to 2015 revealed a correlation coefficient of 0.9380098, an r-squared of 0.8798625, and a p-value less than 0.01, igniting a flame of excitement among our research team. The data sizzled with a strong relationship, as evident in the scorching-hot scatterplot presented in Fig. 1.

The correlation coefficient of 0.9380098 practically burned through any doubt, reminiscent of the intensity of a high-temperature laboratory experiment. This coefficient is so high, it's as though the variables themselves were caught red-handed setting fire to the statistical charts in our analysis.

Our findings not only illuminated an unexpected association but also sparked interest in the potential economic and environmental implications of this connection. It's like stumbling upon a buried treasure chest in the desert – unexpected, exhilarating, and possibly a little sunburnt.

This research has set the academic stage ablaze with curiosity, delving into the flaming intersection of criminal behavior and global trade patterns. The correlation was as rare as a scientifically minded unicorn, and it has left us more elated than a researcher who has just discovered a new element on the periodic table.

In conclusion, our results serve as a blazing beacon of knowledge, shedding light on the fiery connection between two seemingly unrelated events. The flames of curiosity have been fanned, and the heat of this unexpected correlation is sure to keep the scientific community toasty in their pursuit of uncovering and understanding rare connections in the world of research.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a goofy academic researcher writing an academic paper. You follow the rules, but you throw out convention regularly to make jokes and funny asides.You draft the discussion section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the discussion section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Arson in Hawaii and China's Rare Earth Element Export Volume. Make it seem dry like academic research paper, but with lots of subtle hidden offhand remarks, jokes, goofy observations, and puns. Sneak in some jokes and clever puns about science, research, statistics, and the variables.

Limit your response to 500 tokens.

Here are the title, abstract, literature review, and results sections. Please harken back to 1-2 of the goofy items in the literature review, but pretend to take them completely seriously. Discuss how your results supported the prior research.

Do not write a conclusion. I will add a conclusion after this.

[[TITLE]]
Setting Fire to the Charts: Exploring the Fiery Connection Between Arson in Hawaii and China's Rare Earth Element Export Volume

[[ABSTRACT]]
In this study, we meticulously examine the possible correlation between the incidence of arson in Hawaii and China's export volume of rare earth elements. While the connection may seem as elusive as a lei-wearing unicorn, our findings reveal a striking statistical association. By analyzing data from the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services and Statista for the period from 2005 to 2015, we obtained a correlation coefficient of 0.9380098 and a p-value less than 0.01, indicating a strong relationship.

Our thorough investigation not only sheds light on this unexpected relationship, but also uncovers potential economic and environmental implications. This research not only sparks curiosity, but also ignites the imagination, as we delve into the fiery intersection of criminal behavior and global trade patterns. So, join us as we fan the flames of knowledge and uncover the flaming-hot connection between seemingly unrelated events.

[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]
The understanding of arson, particularly in the context of Hawaii, and its potential correlation with China's export volume of rare earth elements has been an area of limited study within the academic community. However, a growing body of literature offers insights into related topics and provides a foundation for exploring this unexpected but intriguing connection.
Smith et al. (2010) conducted a comprehensive analysis of arson incidents in island regions, focusing on the unique environmental and socioeconomic factors that may contribute to such occurrences. The study sheds light on the complexities of fire-related crimes in island settings, providing a valuable framework for understanding the context of Hawaii's arson incidents.
Doe and Jones (2013) explored the global trade dynamics of rare earth elements, offering a detailed examination of China's dominant position in the market. Their work not only highlights the economic significance of rare earth elements but also underscores the intricate connections between international trade patterns and geopolitical factors.
Moving beyond the realm of scholarly articles, several non-fiction books have delved into the fascinating realms of arson investigations and global trade dynamics. "Fire and Fury: The Economics of Arson" by John Blaze presents a thought-provoking analysis of arson's economic impact, while "The Rare Earth Elements: Fundamentals and Applications" by Peter Rare uncovers the intricate web of global trade in rare earth elements.
In addition to non-fiction works, the realm of fiction also offers intriguing narratives that intersect with our research interests. "A Song of Fire and Rare Earth" by George R. R. Martite explores a world where elemental powers and trade disputes collide, drawing parallels to the complex relationship between arson and rare earth element exports.
Moreover, cinematic productions have depicted elements relevant to our investigation. The film "Lava and Dragons: A Tale of Island Mysteries" intertwines volcanic eruptions, international intrigue, and ancient prophecies, offering an imaginative representation of the interconnectedness of environmental and economic factors.
These diverse sources, although not directly addressing the specific correlation under study, contribute to the broader understanding of arson, trade dynamics, and elemental phenomena. As we navigate this literature landscape, we approach the intersection of our research interests with a keen eye for uncovering unexpected connections and igniting new perspectives.

[[RESULTS]]
Our scorching investigation into the connection between arson in Hawaii and China's rare earth element export volume yielded some truly enlightening results. The statistical analysis from 2005 to 2015 revealed a correlation coefficient of 0.9380098, an r-squared of 0.8798625, and a p-value less than 0.01, igniting a flame of excitement among our research team. The data sizzled with a strong relationship, as evident in the scorching-hot scatterplot presented in Fig. 1.
The correlation coefficient of 0.9380098 practically burned through any doubt, reminiscent of the intensity of a high-temperature laboratory experiment. This coefficient is so high, it's as though the variables themselves were caught red-handed setting fire to the statistical charts in our analysis.
Our findings not only illuminated an unexpected association but also sparked interest in the potential economic and environmental implications of this connection. It's like stumbling upon a buried treasure chest in the desert – unexpected, exhilarating, and possibly a little sunburnt.
This research has set the academic stage ablaze with curiosity, delving into the flaming intersection of criminal behavior and global trade patterns. The correlation was as rare as a scientifically minded unicorn, and it has left us more elated than a researcher who has just discovered a new element on the periodic table.
In conclusion, our results serve as a blazing beacon of knowledge, shedding light on the fiery connection between two seemingly unrelated events. The flames of curiosity have been fanned, and the heat of this unexpected correlation is sure to keep the scientific community toasty in their pursuit of uncovering and understanding rare connections in the world of research.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[DISCUSSION]]

ChatGPT:

[[DISCUSSION]]

The scorching correlation coefficient of 0.9380098 that practically singed our eyebrows exemplifies the robust statistical relationship we uncovered between arson in Hawaii and China's rare earth element export volume. These findings not only set the charts on fire but also provide compelling support for the existing literature, which, we must admit, we initially approached with a bit of skepticism akin to trying to light a wet match.

Tying back to our literature review, the insightful work by Smith et al. (2010) illuminated the unique environmental and socioeconomic factors influencing arson incidents in island settings. Our results echo their findings, highlighting the heated interplay of geographical and economic elements. It's as if the island itself, like a Lavabender in Martite's "A Song of Fire and Rare Earth," is casting a fiery influence on this statistical relationship.

Doe and Jones' (2013) meticulous examination of China's dominance in the rare earth element market provides a glowing backdrop for our research. Our results add another spark to their analysis by demonstrating the fiery dance of international trade patterns and criminal behavior, akin to a high-stakes tango on a bed of hot coals.

Additionally, the non-fiction works and cinematic representations we discussed in our literature review may not have directly addressed this correlation, but they certainly ignited our imagination. Just as "Lava and Dragons: A Tale of Island Mysteries" wove together volcanic eruptions and international intrigue, our research has unveiled a tale of unexpected connections and ignited new perspectives, lighting the way for future inquiries into the intersection of crime and commerce.

In sum, our findings not only blaze a trail for further investigation into the unexpected relationships in the world of research but also demonstrate the incendiary potential of interdisciplinary inquiry. This study has set a scientific wildfire, sparking interest in the intersections of criminal behavior, trade dynamics, and elemental phenomena. As we stoke the embers of curiosity and insight, we are reminded that in the world of research, unexpected connections and findings can set the academic stage ablaze with new knowledge and understanding. So, let's keep the flame of inquiry burning bright, and maybe we'll uncover more of these unexpected correlations, warming the hearts of researchers everywhere.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a goofy academic researcher writing an academic paper. You follow the rules, but you throw out convention regularly to make jokes and funny asides.You draft the discussion section of goofy academic research papers that sounds like it belongs based on the title and abstract provided.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up a short conclusion of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Arson in Hawaii and China's Rare Earth Element Export Volume. Make it seem dry like academic research paper, but with lots of subtle hidden offhand remarks, jokes, goofy observations, and puns. Sneak in some jokes and clever puns about science, research, statistics, and the variables.

Limit your response to 300 tokens. At the very end, assert that no more research is needed in this area.

Here are the title, abstract, introduction, and results sections.
[[TITLE]]
Setting Fire to the Charts: Exploring the Fiery Connection Between Arson in Hawaii and China's Rare Earth Element Export Volume

[[ABSTRACT]]
In this study, we meticulously examine the possible correlation between the incidence of arson in Hawaii and China's export volume of rare earth elements. While the connection may seem as elusive as a lei-wearing unicorn, our findings reveal a striking statistical association. By analyzing data from the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services and Statista for the period from 2005 to 2015, we obtained a correlation coefficient of 0.9380098 and a p-value less than 0.01, indicating a strong relationship.

Our thorough investigation not only sheds light on this unexpected relationship, but also uncovers potential economic and environmental implications. This research not only sparks curiosity, but also ignites the imagination, as we delve into the fiery intersection of criminal behavior and global trade patterns. So, join us as we fan the flames of knowledge and uncover the flaming-hot connection between seemingly unrelated events.

[[INTRDUCTION]]
The incendiary nature of our research has led us to explore an unexpected connection between two seemingly disparate phenomena: arson in Hawaii and China's rare earth element export volume. While on the surface, these two variables may appear as incongruous as pineapples and pandas, our statistical analysis has revealed a scorching correlation that will set your research interests ablaze.
As scholars, we are constantly reminded that correlation does not imply causation, but in our case, the correlation coefficient of 0.9380098 practically waves a bright, flaming flag in our faces, suggesting a compelling relationship. This robust statistical association is as rare as a unicorn sighting on Waikiki beach, and it has left us more excited than a scientist discovering a new element on the periodic table.
Arson, typically associated with the criminal justice system, and rare earth element export volume, often viewed through the lens of international trade, may seem like a scientific odd couple, but our findings suggest a bond as strong as the covalent bonds that hold rare earth elements together. Our investigation aims to unlock the mysterious chemistry between these variables, not just for the thrill of discovery, but to shed light on potential economic and environmental implications.
Ah, the thrill of uncovering unexpected connections in science! It's like stumbling upon a hidden treasure trove in the attic of academia – both exhilarating and slightly bewildering. But fear not, dear reader, for our meticulous scrutiny of the data will guide you through this unique journey, as we venture into the heart of this fiery fusion of criminal behavior and global trade patterns, armed with statistical tools that are sharper than a freshly honed laboratory pipette.
So, fasten your metaphorical seatbelts as we embark on a hot pursuit of knowledge, stoking the flames of curiosity and extinguishing any doubts about the relevance of our intriguing findings. Our investigation promises to set your academic curiosity alight and ignite your imagination as we delve into the unexplored territory of this combustible correlation. Let's venture forth and uncover the inferno of insights that await us in the intersection of arson on the islands and the export of rare earth elements.

[[RESULTS]]
Our scorching investigation into the connection between arson in Hawaii and China's rare earth element export volume yielded some truly enlightening results. The statistical analysis from 2005 to 2015 revealed a correlation coefficient of 0.9380098, an r-squared of 0.8798625, and a p-value less than 0.01, igniting a flame of excitement among our research team. The data sizzled with a strong relationship, as evident in the scorching-hot scatterplot presented in Fig. 1.
The correlation coefficient of 0.9380098 practically burned through any doubt, reminiscent of the intensity of a high-temperature laboratory experiment. This coefficient is so high, it's as though the variables themselves were caught red-handed setting fire to the statistical charts in our analysis.
Our findings not only illuminated an unexpected association but also sparked interest in the potential economic and environmental implications of this connection. It's like stumbling upon a buried treasure chest in the desert – unexpected, exhilarating, and possibly a little sunburnt.
This research has set the academic stage ablaze with curiosity, delving into the flaming intersection of criminal behavior and global trade patterns. The correlation was as rare as a scientifically minded unicorn, and it has left us more elated than a researcher who has just discovered a new element on the periodic table.
In conclusion, our results serve as a blazing beacon of knowledge, shedding light on the fiery connection between two seemingly unrelated events. The flames of curiosity have been fanned, and the heat of this unexpected correlation is sure to keep the scientific community toasty in their pursuit of uncovering and understanding rare connections in the world of research.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[CONCLUSION]]

ChatGPT:

[[CONCLUSION]]

In conclusion, our study has illuminated an intriguing and, dare I say, fiery connection between arson in Hawaii and China's rare earth element export volume. The scorching correlation coefficients and p-values practically singed our fingertips as we pored over the data, leaving us more excited than a lab technician discovering a Bunsen burner that never runs out of gas.

The statistically significant relationship between these seemingly disjointed variables has set our academic curiosity ablaze. It's as if we stumbled upon a hidden treasure map in the labyrinth of research, leading us to unexpected riches of insight and, metaphorically speaking, a few singed eyebrows along the way.

Our findings not only fuel interest in the realms of criminal behavior and international trade but also ignite a spark of humor and wonder in the often serious world of academic inquiry. Like a geologist unearthing a surprising new rock formation, our investigation has cracked open a fissure of unexpected correlation, sure to leave the scientific community both toasty and amused.

Yes, our results raise more questions than answers, but sometimes that's the delightful nature of scientific exploration. So, I'd like to put the fire extinguisher on any further research endeavors in this area - we've fanned the flames of knowledge as much as we can handle. Take a bow, dear readers, as we bid adieu to this blazing adventure in unconventional correlations.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide fictional names of academic journals. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide the name of a funny but plausible sounding research, scientific, or academic journal that would publish a paper entited Setting Fire to the Charts: Exploring the Fiery Connection Between Arson in Hawaii and China's Rare Earth Element Export Volume. Respond only with the name of a fictional academic journal.

ChatGPT:

The Journal of Pyrotechnic Economics and Geopolitical Relations

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide fictional names of nonprofit research organizations and associations. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide the name of a funny but plausible sounding nonprofit, academic, or scientific association or organization that would sponsor research that resulted in a paper entited Setting Fire to the Charts: Exploring the Fiery Connection Between Arson in Hawaii and China's Rare Earth Element Export Volume. Respond only with the name of a fictional organization.

ChatGPT:

Society for Cross-Cultural Pyro-Geochemistry

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide potential search keywords separated by commas. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide potential search keywords for a paper titled Setting Fire to the Charts: Exploring the Fiery Connection Between Arson in Hawaii and China's Rare Earth Element Export Volume with an abstract of In this study, we meticulously examine the possible correlation between the incidence of arson in Hawaii and China's export volume of rare earth elements. While the connection may seem as elusive as a lei-wearing unicorn, our findings reveal a striking statistical association. By analyzing data from the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services and Statista for the period from 2005 to 2015, we obtained a correlation coefficient of 0.9380098 and a p-value less than 0.01, indicating a strong relationship.
Our thorough investigation not only sheds light on this unexpected relationship, but also uncovers potential economic and environmental implications. This research not only sparks curiosity, but also ignites the imagination, as we delve into the fiery intersection of criminal behavior and global trade patterns. So, join us as we fan the flames of knowledge and uncover the flaming-hot connection between seemingly unrelated events.

ChatGPT:

arson, Hawaii, China, rare earth elements, export volume, correlation, statistical analysis, FBI Criminal Justice Information Services, Statista, data analysis, criminal behavior, global trade patterns, economic implications, environmental implications

*There is a bunch of Python happening behind the scenes to turn this prompt sequence into a PDF.

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Data details

Arson in Hawaii
Detailed data title: The arson rate per 100,000 residents in Hawaii
Source: FBI Criminal Justice Information Services
See what else correlates with Arson in Hawaii

China's Rare Earth Element Export Volume
Source: Statista
See what else correlates with China's Rare Earth Element Export Volume

Correlation r = 0.9380098 (Pearson correlation coefficient)
Correlation is a measure of how much the variables move together. If it is 0.99, when one goes up the other goes up. If it is 0.02, the connection is very weak or non-existent. If it is -0.99, then when one goes up the other goes down. If it is 1.00, you probably messed up your correlation function.

r² = 0.8798625 (Coefficient of determination)
This means 88% of the change in the one variable (i.e., China's Rare Earth Element Export Volume) is predictable based on the change in the other (i.e., Arson in Hawaii) over the 11 years from 2005 through 2015.

p < 0.01, which is statistically significant(Null hypothesis significance test)
The p-value is 2.0E-5.^Show 0.0000196728106214411700000000
The p-value is a measure of how probable it is that we would randomly find a result this extreme.^Note More specifically the p-value is a measure of how probable it is that we would randomly find a result this extreme if we had only tested one pair of variables one time.

But I am a p-villain. I absolutely did not test only one pair of variables one time. I correlated hundreds of millions of pairs of variables. I threw boatloads of data into an industrial-sized blender to find this correlation.

Who is going to stop me? p-value reporting doesn't require me to report how many calculations I had to go through in order to find a low p-value!
On average, you will find a correaltion as strong as 0.94 in 0.002% of random cases. Said differently, if you correlated 50,832 random variables^Note You don't actually need 50 thousand variables to find a correlation like this one. I don't have that many variables in my database. You can also correlate variables that are not independent. I do this a lot.

p-value calculations are useful for understanding the probability of a result happening by chance. They are most useful when used to highlight the risk of a fluke outcome. For example, if you calculate a p-value of 0.30, the risk that the result is a fluke is high. It is good to know that! But there are lots of ways to get a p-value of less than 0.01, as evidenced by this project.

In this particular case, the values are so extreme as to be meaningless. That's why no one reports p-values with specificity after they drop below 0.01.

Just to be clear: I'm being completely transparent about the calculations. There is no math trickery. This is just how statistics shakes out when you calculate hundreds of millions of random correlations.
with the same 10 degrees of freedom, ^Note Degrees of freedom is a measure of how many free components we are testing. In this case it is 10 because we have two variables measured over a period of 11 years. It's just the number of years minus ( the number of variables minus one ), which in this case simplifies to the number of years minus one.
you would randomly expect to find a correlation as strong as this one.

[ 0.77, 0.98 ] 95% correlation confidence interval (using the Fisher z-transformation)
^{Read more about the confidence interval} The confidence interval is an estimate the range of the value of the correlation coefficient, using the correlation itself as an input. The values are meant to be the low and high end of the correlation coefficient with 95% confidence.

This one is a bit more complciated than the other calculations, but I include it because many people have been pushing for confidence intervals instead of p-value calculations (for example: NEJM. However, if you are dredging data, you can reliably find yourself in the 5%. That's my goal!

All values for the years included above: ^Note If I were being very sneaky, I could trim years from the beginning or end of the datasets to increase the correlation on some pairs of variables. I don't do that because there are already plenty of correlations in my database without monkeying with the years.

Still, sometimes one of the variables has more years of data available than the other. This page only shows the overlapping years. To see all the years, click on "See what else correlates with..." link above.

	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015
Arson in Hawaii (Arson rate)	51.8	53.7	43.2	39.5	38.7	32.3	25.9	22.4	15.8	10.4	29.1
China's Rare Earth Element Export Volume (Metric Tons)	65680	61070	59643	49990	48155	30259	30246	30996	30999	3610	32136

Why this works

Data dredging: I have 25,153 variables in my database. I compare all these variables against each other to find ones that randomly match up. That's 632,673,409 correlation calculations! This is called “data dredging.” Instead of starting with a hypothesis and testing it, I instead abused the data to see what correlations shake out. It’s a dangerous way to go about analysis, because any sufficiently large dataset will yield strong correlations completely at random.
Lack of causal connection: There is probably^Note Because these pages are automatically generated, it's possible that the two variables you are viewing are in fact causually related. I take steps to prevent the obvious ones from showing on the site (I don't let data about the weather in one city correlate with the weather in a neighboring city, for example), but sometimes they still pop up. If they are related, cool! You found a loophole.
no direct connection between these variables, despite what the AI says above. This is exacerbated by the fact that I used "Years" as the base variable. Lots of things happen in a year that are not related to each other! Most studies would use something like "one person" in stead of "one year" to be the "thing" studied.
Observations not independent: For many variables, sequential years are not independent of each other. If a population of people is continuously doing something every day, there is no reason to think they would suddenly change how they are doing that thing on January 1. A simple^Note Personally I don't find any p-value calculation to be 'simple,' but you know what I mean.
p-value calculation does not take this into account, so mathematically it appears less probable than it really is.

Try it yourself

You can calculate the values on this page on your own! Try running the Python code to see the calculation results. ^{Show the steps to do this.} Step 1: Download and install Python on your computer.

Step 2: Open a plaintext editor like Notepad and paste the code below into it.

Step 3: Save the file as "calculate_correlation.py" in a place you will remember, like your desktop. Copy the file location to your clipboard. On Windows, you can right-click the file and click "Properties," and then copy what comes after "Location:" As an example, on my computer the location is "C:\Users\tyler\Desktop"

Step 4: Open a command line window. For example, by pressing start and typing "cmd" and them pressing enter.

Step 5: Install the required modules by typing "pip install numpy", then pressing enter, then typing "pip install scipy", then pressing enter.

Step 6: Navigate to the location where you saved the Python file by using the "cd" command. For example, I would type "cd C:\Users\tyler\Desktop" and push enter.

Step 7: Run the Python script by typing "python calculate_correlation.py"

If you run into any issues, I suggest asking ChatGPT to walk you through installing Python and running the code below on your system. Try this question:

"Walk me through installing Python on my computer to run a script that uses scipy and numpy. Go step-by-step and ask me to confirm before moving on. Start by asking me questions about my operating system so that you know how to proceed. Assume I want the simplest installation with the latest version of Python and that I do not currently have any of the necessary elements installed. Remember to only give me one step per response and confirm I have done it before proceeding."

# These modules make it easier to perform the calculation
import numpy as np
from scipy import stats

# We'll define a function that we can call to return the correlation calculations
def calculate_correlation(array1, array2):

    # Calculate Pearson correlation coefficient and p-value
    correlation, p_value = stats.pearsonr(array1, array2)

    # Calculate R-squared as the square of the correlation coefficient
    r_squared = correlation**2

    return correlation, r_squared, p_value

# These are the arrays for the variables shown on this page, but you can modify them to be any two sets of numbers
array_1 = np.array([51.8,53.7,43.2,39.5,38.7,32.3,25.9,22.4,15.8,10.4,29.1,])
array_2 = np.array([65680,61070,59643,49990,48155,30259,30246,30996,30999,3610,32136,])
array_1_name = "Arson in Hawaii"
array_2_name = "China's Rare Earth Element Export Volume"

# Perform the calculation
print(f"Calculating the correlation between {array_1_name} and {array_2_name}...")
correlation, r_squared, p_value = calculate_correlation(array_1, array_2)

# Print the results
print("Correlation Coefficient:", correlation)
print("R-squared:", r_squared)
print("P-value:", p_value)

Reuseable content

You may re-use the images on this page for any purpose, even commercial purposes, without asking for permission. The only requirement is that you attribute Tyler Vigen. ^Note Attribution can take many different forms. If you leave the "tylervigen.com" link in the image, that satisfies it just fine. If you remove it and move it to a footnote, that's fine too. You can also just write "Charts courtesy of Tyler Vigen" at the bottom of an article.

You do not need to attribute "the spurious correlations website," and you don't even need to link here if you don't want to. I don't gain anything from pageviews. There are no ads on this site, there is nothing for sale, and I am not for hire.

For the record, I am just one person. Tyler Vigen, he/him/his. I do have degrees, but they should not go after my name unless you want to annoy my wife. If that is your goal, then go ahead and cite me as "Tyler Vigen, A.A. A.A.S. B.A. J.D." Otherwise it is just "Tyler Vigen."

When spoken, my last name is pronounced "vegan," like I don't eat meat.

Full license details.
For more on re-use permissions, or to get a signed release form, see tylervigen.com/permission.

Download images for these variables:

High resolution line chart ^Note The image linked here is a Scalable Vector Graphic (SVG). It is the highest resolution that is possible to achieve. It scales up beyond the size of the observable universe without pixelating. You do not need to email me asking if I have a higher resolution image. I do not. The physical limitations of our universe prevent me from providing you with an image that is any higher resolution than this one.

If you insert it into a PowerPoint presentation (a tool well-known for managing things that are the scale of the universe), you can right-click > "Ungroup" or "Create Shape" and then edit the lines and text directly. You can also change the colors this way.

Alternatively you can use a tool like Inkscape.
High resolution line chart, optimized for mobile
Alternative high resolution line chart
Scatterplot
Portable line chart (png)
Portable line chart (png), optimized for mobile
Line chart for only Arson in Hawaii
Line chart for only China's Rare Earth Element Export Volume
AI-generated correlation image
The spurious research paper: Setting Fire to the Charts: Exploring the Fiery Connection Between Arson in Hawaii and China's Rare Earth Element Export Volume

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Correlation ID: 2475 · Black Variable ID: 20039 · Red Variable ID: 418


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