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Spurious correlation #2,402 · View random

A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is Number of games won by Miami Marlins in the National League (East Division) and the second variable is Runs scored by the Miami Marlins.  The chart goes from 1993 to 2022, and the two variables track closely in value over that time. Small Image
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AI explanation

It's simple, really. As the Miami Marlins win more games, they experience a boost in team morale. This heightened morale leads to an increase in players' serotonin levels, positively affecting their focus and energy. With improved focus and energy, the players are able to strategize better, make strong offensive decisions, and ultimately score more runs. Plus, winning can be quite the confidence booster, and we all know confidence is the key to success in baseball! But let's not forget the most critical factor: as the Marlins win more games, it's clear that the universe is conspiring in their favor, allowing for a statistical anomaly where the mere act of winning creates a metaphysical alignment that propels their run-scoring abilities to new heights. So, in conclusion, it's not just about the skills or tactics; it's about tapping into the cosmic, morale-boosting, serotonin-fueled, and confidence-emboldening forces that accompany each victorious game.

Model: dalle-3
Prompt: Generate an image of a comic-book-style illustration with muted colors and a dotted halftone pattern from the 1960s, depicting a scene at the Miami Marlins' ballpark. The players are celebrating a hard-earned victory, high-fiving and cheering as they cross home plate. The scoreboard displays the number of games won by the Marlins, while the base paths are sprinkled with miniature Marlins logos, each representing a run scored. The players' excitement and momentum are palpable, fueling their drive to notch even more wins and add to their run tally. This visual perfectly captures the interconnectedness of their wins and runs, showcasing their determination and passion for the game. The illustration should be simplistic in style, capturing the energy and dynamic action of the celebratory scene. The depiction should include only scenes, people, and objects, it should not include text or speech bubbles.
This image generation prompt was also generated by AI, using the following sequence:

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You select one of a few potential scene descriptors that seems to go along with the variables described. You respond only with the scene descriptions provided and say nothing else.
User prompt: Here are two variables: Number of games won by Miami Marlins in the National League (East Division) and Runs scored by the Miami Marlins. Given these, which of the following image style descriptions seems most appropriate? Pick the one that seems to be related to one of the variables at hand. Please respond with only one of the following potential descriptions: Sci-fi fantacy Realistic Cutsy art illustration Pop art A comic-book-style illustration with muted colors and a dotted halftone pattern from the 1960s
ChatGPT: A comic-book-style illustration with muted colors and a dotted halftone pattern from the 1960s

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You describe simple visual scenes that depict the two variables stated. You combine both variables into one scene.
User prompt: Please describe a visual scene that prominently depicts both Number of games won by Miami Marlins in the National League (East Division) and Runs scored by the Miami Marlins, in the following situation: The more wins the Marlins reel in, the batter they perform in the shell-game of baseball superstardom. It's a real home-run for their team spirit! With each victory, they're making waves and riding the current of success, which in turn nets them more runs. It's like they're saying, "We're not squidding around – winning leads to more scoring opportunities, and we're gonna krill it out on the field!" So, as the Marlins continue to school their opponents and fish for those wins, you can bet they'll hook, line, and sinker rack up those runs. It's a fin-tastic cycle of triumph leading to more runs, and it's all thanks to their killer instinct and porpoise-driven determination.. Keep the description simple.
ChatGPT: Imagine a scene at the Miami Marlins' ballpark where the team is celebrating a hard-earned victory. The players are high-fiving and cheering as they cross home plate. The scoreboard displays the number of games won by the Marlins, while the base paths are sprinkled with miniature Marlins logos, each representing a run scored. The players' excitement and momentum are palpable, fueling their drive to notch even more wins and add to their run tally. This visual perfectly captures the interconnectedness of their wins and runs, showcasing their determination and passion for the game.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You write and improve image generation prompts for DALLE-3. You maintain the same subjects, but enhance the visuals.
User prompt: Please respond with an image generation prompt that would be likely to create an interesting visual using DALLE-3, using the following style: [ A comic-book-style illustration with muted colors and a dotted halftone pattern from the 1960s ] and depicting this scene: Imagine a scene at the Miami Marlins' ballpark where the team is celebrating a hard-earned victory. The players are high-fiving and cheering as they cross home plate. The scoreboard displays the number of games won by the Marlins, while the base paths are sprinkled with miniature Marlins logos, each representing a run scored. The players' excitement and momentum are palpable, fueling their drive to notch even more wins and add to their run tally. This visual perfectly captures the interconnectedness of their wins and runs, showcasing their determination and passion for the game. Keep the visual depiction simple. Do not include any words or speech bubbles.
ChatGPT: Generate an image of a comic-book-style illustration with muted colors and a dotted halftone pattern from the 1960s, depicting a scene at the Miami Marlins' ballpark. The players are celebrating a hard-earned victory, high-fiving and cheering as they cross home plate. The scoreboard displays the number of games won by the Marlins, while the base paths are sprinkled with miniature Marlins logos, each representing a run scored. The players' excitement and momentum are palpable, fueling their drive to notch even more wins and add to their run tally. This visual perfectly captures the interconnectedness of their wins and runs, showcasing their determination and passion for the game. The illustration should be simplistic in style, capturing the energy and dynamic action of the celebratory scene.

*Variations in the User Prompts from chart to chart are just the result of random number generation in Python. I wrote a few arrays of various styles and methods to ask questions to change up the results. Every time this site writes an explanation or generates an image, the script picks from each at random.

I sequence the requests into multiple prompts because I find GPT 3.5 to perform much better with short, well-managed contexts. Thus, I track the context directly in Python and only ask ChatGPT targeted questions.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106 (fine-tuned)
System prompt: You provide humorous responses in the form of plausible sounding explanations for correlations. You assume the correlation is causative for the purpose of the explanation even if it is ridiculous. You do not chat with the user, you only reply with the causal connection explanation and nothing else.
User prompt: Please make up a funny explanation for how increases in Number of games won by Miami Marlins in the National League (East Division) positively influenced Runs scored by the Miami Marlins.\Make it sound serious until the end.

AI academic paper

(Because p < 0.01)
Swing and a Miss? Exploring the Slugger's Paradox: The Correlation Between Miami Marlins' Wins and Runs Scored

The Home Run Hypothesis: Journal of Sports Analytics

Jan 2024

Reminder: This paper is AI-generated. Not real!
Quick note: This sequence is long and repetitive. That's how the prompt engineering works for this one. I manage the output in Python to format it into this PDF.




Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a witty academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a statistics journal.You write titles and abstracts of goofy academic research papers.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, and add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please draft the title and abstract of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Number of games won by Miami Marlins in the National League (East Division) and Runs scored by the Miami Marlins. Make lots of jokes, goofy observations, and puns.

Include a pun in the title.

Your research team used data from Baseball Reference and Baseball-Reference.com to assess this nagging question. You found a correlation coefficient of 0.8378086 and p < 0.01 for 1993 to 2022.

Please respond in this format (replace "Lorem ipsum dolor sit" with your title and abstract)

[[TITLE]]
Lorem ipsum dolor sit

[[ABSTRACT]]
Lorem ipsum dolor sit



ChatGPT:
[[TITLE]]
Swing and a Miss? Exploring the Slugger's Paradox: The Correlation Between Miami Marlins' Wins and Runs Scored

[[ABSTRACT]]
In this study, we delved into the fascinating relationship between the number of games won by the Miami Marlins in the National League (East Division) and the runs they scored over the span of 1993 to 2022. Using data from Baseball Reference and Baseball-Reference.com, we attempted to unravel the mystery of whether hitting more home runs translates to more victories on the diamond. With a correlation coefficient of 0.8378086 and p < 0.01, our findings reveal a strong, statistically significant connection between the Marlins' success in driving home runs and crossing the plate themselves. Our results shed light on the slugger's paradox and provide valuable insights for both baseball enthusiasts and analysts. Whether it's a home run or a grand slam, this study demonstrates that when it comes to the Marlins, runs definitely run the show.


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a witty academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a statistics journal.You draft the introduction section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the introduction section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Number of games won by Miami Marlins in the National League (East Division) and Runs scored by the Miami Marlins. Make lots of jokes, goofy observations, and puns. Sneak in some jokes and clever puns about science, research, statistics, and the variables.

Here is the title and abstract of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
Swing and a Miss? Exploring the Slugger's Paradox: The Correlation Between Miami Marlins' Wins and Runs Scored

[[ABSTRACT]]
In this study, we delved into the fascinating relationship between the number of games won by the Miami Marlins in the National League (East Division) and the runs they scored over the span of 1993 to 2022. Using data from Baseball Reference and Baseball-Reference.com, we attempted to unravel the mystery of whether hitting more home runs translates to more victories on the diamond. With a correlation coefficient of 0.8378086 and p < 0.01, our findings reveal a strong, statistically significant connection between the Marlins' success in driving home runs and crossing the plate themselves. Our results shed light on the slugger's paradox and provide valuable insights for both baseball enthusiasts and analysts. Whether it's a home run or a grand slam, this study demonstrates that when it comes to the Marlins, runs definitely run the show.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[INTRODUCTION]]



ChatGPT:
[[INTRODUCTION]]

Sports and statistics have a lot in common - both involve numbers, both have die-hard fans, and both can lead to a fair amount of head-scratching. In this vein, we embark on a statistical journey to explore the dynamic relationship between the Miami Marlins' victory tally in the National League (East Division) and their prowess at scoring runs. As we delve into this intersection of athletics and analytics, we aim to hit a statistical home run and uncover whether there is a solid connection between the Marlins' ability to drive home runs and drive up their wins.

It's often quipped that statistics are like a bikini - what they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital. With this in mind, we set out to unravel the mystery surrounding the correlation between the Marlins' scoring prowess and their triumphs on the field. From the crack of the bat to the roar of the crowd, every swing and every run are potential clues in this statistical game of cat and mouse.

Much like a good fastball, our data comes in hot from Baseball Reference and Baseball-Reference.com, covering a span of nearly three decades, encompassing the Marlins' on-field exploits from 1993 to 2022. Armed with this wealth of statistical treasure, we seek to dig deep, not only for base hits but also for meaningful insights that can help us knock it out of the park in understanding the dynamics of baseball success.

As scholars of the game and enthusiasts of quantitative analysis, we eagerly anticipate unearthing any hints of correlation between the Marlins' victories and their prowess for knocking in those oh-so-crucial runs. With our bats held high and our statistical gloves at the ready, we aim to shed light on the slugger's paradox and reveal whether the age-old adage of "chicks dig the long ball" also holds true in the realm of victory tallies. So, put on your rally caps and get ready for a statistical showdown because, in the world of Miami Marlins baseball, it's time to see if there's more than meets the "I."

With our puns poised and our analysis primed, we invite you to join us on this statistical romp through the hallowed halls of baseball lore. From the diamond to the spreadsheet, from batting averages to correlation coefficients, let's uncover whether there's a home run hiding in the data or just an error waiting to be flagged.


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a witty academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a statistics journal.You draft a literature review section of an academic research paper, that starts out dry for the first few sentences but then becomes hilarious and goofy.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up a literature review section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Number of games won by Miami Marlins in the National League (East Division) and Runs scored by the Miami Marlins. Make lots of jokes, goofy observations, and puns.

Speak in the present tense for this section (the authors find...), as is common in academic research paper literature reviews. Name the sources in a format similar to this: In "Book," the authors find lorem and ipsum.

Make up the lorem and ipsum part, but make it sound related to the topic at hand.

Start by naming serious-sounding studies by authors like Smith, Doe, and Jones - but then quickly devolve. Name some real non-fiction books that would be related to the topic. Then name some real fiction books that sound like they could be related. Then devolve ever further, and mention something completely ridiculous, like you conducted literature review by reading CVS receipts.

Here is the title and abstract of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
Swing and a Miss? Exploring the Slugger's Paradox: The Correlation Between Miami Marlins' Wins and Runs Scored

[[ABSTRACT]]
In this study, we delved into the fascinating relationship between the number of games won by the Miami Marlins in the National League (East Division) and the runs they scored over the span of 1993 to 2022. Using data from Baseball Reference and Baseball-Reference.com, we attempted to unravel the mystery of whether hitting more home runs translates to more victories on the diamond. With a correlation coefficient of 0.8378086 and p < 0.01, our findings reveal a strong, statistically significant connection between the Marlins' success in driving home runs and crossing the plate themselves. Our results shed light on the slugger's paradox and provide valuable insights for both baseball enthusiasts and analysts. Whether it's a home run or a grand slam, this study demonstrates that when it comes to the Marlins, runs definitely run the show.

-------

And here is the introduction section that led to this literature review:
[[INTRODUCTION]]
Sports and statistics have a lot in common - both involve numbers, both have die-hard fans, and both can lead to a fair amount of head-scratching. In this vein, we embark on a statistical journey to explore the dynamic relationship between the Miami Marlins' victory tally in the National League (East Division) and their prowess at scoring runs. As we delve into this intersection of athletics and analytics, we aim to hit a statistical home run and uncover whether there is a solid connection between the Marlins' ability to drive home runs and drive up their wins.
It's often quipped that statistics are like a bikini - what they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital. With this in mind, we set out to unravel the mystery surrounding the correlation between the Marlins' scoring prowess and their triumphs on the field. From the crack of the bat to the roar of the crowd, every swing and every run are potential clues in this statistical game of cat and mouse.
Much like a good fastball, our data comes in hot from Baseball Reference and Baseball-Reference.com, covering a span of nearly three decades, encompassing the Marlins' on-field exploits from 1993 to 2022. Armed with this wealth of statistical treasure, we seek to dig deep, not only for base hits but also for meaningful insights that can help us knock it out of the park in understanding the dynamics of baseball success.
As scholars of the game and enthusiasts of quantitative analysis, we eagerly anticipate unearthing any hints of correlation between the Marlins' victories and their prowess for knocking in those oh-so-crucial runs. With our bats held high and our statistical gloves at the ready, we aim to shed light on the slugger's paradox and reveal whether the age-old adage of "chicks dig the long ball" also holds true in the realm of victory tallies. So, put on your rally caps and get ready for a statistical showdown because, in the world of Miami Marlins baseball, it's time to see if there's more than meets the "I."
With our puns poised and our analysis primed, we invite you to join us on this statistical romp through the hallowed halls of baseball lore. From the diamond to the spreadsheet, from batting averages to correlation coefficients, let's uncover whether there's a home run hiding in the data or just an error waiting to be flagged.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]



ChatGPT:
[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]

In "Smith et al.," the authors find a significant positive correlation between the number of games won by the Miami Marlins in the National League (East Division) and the runs scored by the team. This initial investigation sheds light on the potential relationship between offensive proficiency and on-field triumphs, prompting further exploration into the underlying mechanisms driving these outcomes.

Further supporting the connection between wins and runs, "Doe and Roe" highlight the impact of batting prowess on team success, with a focus on the Miami Marlins' performance over the years. The findings suggest that a strong offensive game, particularly in terms of run production, contributes to the team's ability to clinch victories, intertwining the art of scoring runs with the science of securing wins.

Building on this foundation, "Jones and Smith" underscore the importance of home runs and RBI in shaping the Marlins' season performance, drawing attention to the potential influence of power hitting on the team's competitive edge. These initial studies form the bedrock for our in-depth exploration into the fascinating and somewhat paradoxical relationship between hitting prowess and favorable outcomes for the Miami Marlins.

Turning to sources beyond the realm of empirical research, the works of Bill James, such as "The Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract," provide valuable context for understanding the significance of offensive statistics in shaping a team's success. Additionally, the analytical framework outlined in "Moneyball" by Michael Lewis offers a thought-provoking perspective on the role of metrics in evaluating on-field performance and its implications for team triumphs, albeit in the context of a different franchise.

Expanding the scope further, fictional literature such as Bernard Malamud's "The Natural" and Philip Roth's "The Great American Novel" explore the mythical allure of baseball, intertwining themes of superstition, ambition, and the pursuit of glory on the diamond. While these literary works may not offer direct empirical insights, they contribute to the broader cultural understanding of the significance of runs and wins in the fabric of baseball lore.

As our investigation progressed, we not only delved into academic journals and classic baseball literature but also ventured into unconventional territory. Armed with an unorthodox approach, we combed through an array of eclectic sources, from dusty old almanacs to the cryptic runes of ancient baseball scorecards. Moreover, we must confess that our quest for insight into the slugger's paradox led us to scrutinize the enigmatic contents of CVS receipts, where, much to our bemusement, we unearthed fascinating ink blots that bore an uncanny resemblance to the Miami Marlins' run-scoring patterns.

In sum, while our literature review encompassed a diverse spectrum of sources, ranging from the scholarly to the speculative, we approach our investigation with a humorous nod to the colorful and oftentimes whimsical nature of the baseball narrative.


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a witty academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a statistics journal.You draft the methodology section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the methodology section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Number of games won by Miami Marlins in the National League (East Division) and Runs scored by the Miami Marlins. Make lots of jokes, goofy observations, and puns. Sneak in some jokes and clever puns about science, research, statistics, and the variables.

Your research team collected data from all across the internet, but mostly just used information from Baseball Reference and Baseball-Reference.com . You used data from 1993 to 2022

Make up the research methods you don't know. Make them a bit goofy and convoluted.

Here is the title, abstract, and introduction of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
Swing and a Miss? Exploring the Slugger's Paradox: The Correlation Between Miami Marlins' Wins and Runs Scored

[[ABSTRACT]]
In this study, we delved into the fascinating relationship between the number of games won by the Miami Marlins in the National League (East Division) and the runs they scored over the span of 1993 to 2022. Using data from Baseball Reference and Baseball-Reference.com, we attempted to unravel the mystery of whether hitting more home runs translates to more victories on the diamond. With a correlation coefficient of 0.8378086 and p < 0.01, our findings reveal a strong, statistically significant connection between the Marlins' success in driving home runs and crossing the plate themselves. Our results shed light on the slugger's paradox and provide valuable insights for both baseball enthusiasts and analysts. Whether it's a home run or a grand slam, this study demonstrates that when it comes to the Marlins, runs definitely run the show.

[[INTRODUCTION]]
Sports and statistics have a lot in common - both involve numbers, both have die-hard fans, and both can lead to a fair amount of head-scratching. In this vein, we embark on a statistical journey to explore the dynamic relationship between the Miami Marlins' victory tally in the National League (East Division) and their prowess at scoring runs. As we delve into this intersection of athletics and analytics, we aim to hit a statistical home run and uncover whether there is a solid connection between the Marlins' ability to drive home runs and drive up their wins.
It's often quipped that statistics are like a bikini - what they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital. With this in mind, we set out to unravel the mystery surrounding the correlation between the Marlins' scoring prowess and their triumphs on the field. From the crack of the bat to the roar of the crowd, every swing and every run are potential clues in this statistical game of cat and mouse.
Much like a good fastball, our data comes in hot from Baseball Reference and Baseball-Reference.com, covering a span of nearly three decades, encompassing the Marlins' on-field exploits from 1993 to 2022. Armed with this wealth of statistical treasure, we seek to dig deep, not only for base hits but also for meaningful insights that can help us knock it out of the park in understanding the dynamics of baseball success.
As scholars of the game and enthusiasts of quantitative analysis, we eagerly anticipate unearthing any hints of correlation between the Marlins' victories and their prowess for knocking in those oh-so-crucial runs. With our bats held high and our statistical gloves at the ready, we aim to shed light on the slugger's paradox and reveal whether the age-old adage of "chicks dig the long ball" also holds true in the realm of victory tallies. So, put on your rally caps and get ready for a statistical showdown because, in the world of Miami Marlins baseball, it's time to see if there's more than meets the "I."
With our puns poised and our analysis primed, we invite you to join us on this statistical romp through the hallowed halls of baseball lore. From the diamond to the spreadsheet, from batting averages to correlation coefficients, let's uncover whether there's a home run hiding in the data or just an error waiting to be flagged.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[METHODOLOGY]]



ChatGPT:

[[METHODOLOGY]]

To embark on our statistical odyssey, we assembled a crack team of data wranglers, sabermetrics aficionados, and caffeinated statisticians. We scoured Baseball Reference and Baseball-Reference.com, venturing through the labyrinthine depths of internet archives, game logs, and historical databases to compile a comprehensive dataset spanning the period from 1993 to 2022. Dubbed "Operation Slugger's Secrets," our intrepid crew left no batting average unturned, no box score unexamined, and no curveball unanticipated in our pursuit of unraveling the elusive connection between the Miami Marlins' wins and runs.

We huddled around mounds of spreadsheets, armed with laptops, calculators, and a bottomless supply of ballpark snacks, to sift through the wealth of game-by-game statistics. Our data was sliced, diced, and rigorously scrutinized to account for extraneous variables such as pitching prowess, defensive strategies, and the occasional streak of bad luck. To manage the myriad interwoven statistics, we designed custom algorithms that could perform impressive acrobatics, akin to a nimble center fielder chasing down a well-hit fly ball.

Employing advanced statistical techniques that were as precise as a pitcher's fastball and as exhaustive as a marathon extra-inning game, we employed regression analysis, correlation tests, and even resorted to the occasional sacrifice bunt to ensure the veracity of our findings. Our statistical model was more fine-tuned than a well-groomed infield, allowing us to tease out any hidden patterns and correlations with the finesse of a seasoned utility player turning a double play.

Furthermore, to ensure the robustness and reliability of our results, we performed bootstrapping analysis and sensitivity tests, akin to the meticulous examination of a controversial slide into home plate. This rigorous approach allowed us to account for any potential outliers, anomalies, or statistical curveballs that could have otherwise clouded the clarity of our findings.

In summary, our methodology resided at the crossroads of precision and passion, wielding the tools of statistical inquiry with the finesse of a seasoned batter stepping up to the plate. Throughout the unrelenting pursuit of statistical truth, the guiding principle of our methodology was clear: leave no statistic unturned, no variable unexamined, and no pun uncracked in our quest to demystify the enigmatic dance between the Miami Marlins' wins and their prowess at racking up those all-important runs.


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a witty academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a statistics journal.You draft the results section of an academic research paper. You speak in the past tense (you found...).
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the results section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Number of games won by Miami Marlins in the National League (East Division) and Runs scored by the Miami Marlins. Make lots of jokes, goofy observations, and puns. Sneak in some jokes and clever puns about science, research, statistics, and the variables.

Your research team collected data from all across the internet, but mostly just used information from Baseball Reference and Baseball-Reference.com .

For the time period 1993 to 2022, you found a correlation 0.8378086, r-squared of 0.7019233, and p < 0.01.

One figure will be included. The figure (Fig. 1) is a scatterplot showing the strong correlation between the two variables. You don't need to specify where; I will add the figure.

Here is the title and abstract of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
Swing and a Miss? Exploring the Slugger's Paradox: The Correlation Between Miami Marlins' Wins and Runs Scored

[[ABSTRACT]]
In this study, we delved into the fascinating relationship between the number of games won by the Miami Marlins in the National League (East Division) and the runs they scored over the span of 1993 to 2022. Using data from Baseball Reference and Baseball-Reference.com, we attempted to unravel the mystery of whether hitting more home runs translates to more victories on the diamond. With a correlation coefficient of 0.8378086 and p < 0.01, our findings reveal a strong, statistically significant connection between the Marlins' success in driving home runs and crossing the plate themselves. Our results shed light on the slugger's paradox and provide valuable insights for both baseball enthusiasts and analysts. Whether it's a home run or a grand slam, this study demonstrates that when it comes to the Marlins, runs definitely run the show.

-------

And here is the methodology section that led to this result:
[[METHODOLOGY]]
Sports and statistics have a lot in common - both involve numbers, both have die-hard fans, and both can lead to a fair amount of head-scratching. In this vein, we embark on a statistical journey to explore the dynamic relationship between the Miami Marlins' victory tally in the National League (East Division) and their prowess at scoring runs. As we delve into this intersection of athletics and analytics, we aim to hit a statistical home run and uncover whether there is a solid connection between the Marlins' ability to drive home runs and drive up their wins.
It's often quipped that statistics are like a bikini - what they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital. With this in mind, we set out to unravel the mystery surrounding the correlation between the Marlins' scoring prowess and their triumphs on the field. From the crack of the bat to the roar of the crowd, every swing and every run are potential clues in this statistical game of cat and mouse.
Much like a good fastball, our data comes in hot from Baseball Reference and Baseball-Reference.com, covering a span of nearly three decades, encompassing the Marlins' on-field exploits from 1993 to 2022. Armed with this wealth of statistical treasure, we seek to dig deep, not only for base hits but also for meaningful insights that can help us knock it out of the park in understanding the dynamics of baseball success.
As scholars of the game and enthusiasts of quantitative analysis, we eagerly anticipate unearthing any hints of correlation between the Marlins' victories and their prowess for knocking in those oh-so-crucial runs. With our bats held high and our statistical gloves at the ready, we aim to shed light on the slugger's paradox and reveal whether the age-old adage of "chicks dig the long ball" also holds true in the realm of victory tallies. So, put on your rally caps and get ready for a statistical showdown because, in the world of Miami Marlins baseball, it's time to see if there's more than meets the "I."
With our puns poised and our analysis primed, we invite you to join us on this statistical romp through the hallowed halls of baseball lore. From the diamond to the spreadsheet, from batting averages to correlation coefficients, let's uncover whether there's a home run hiding in the data or just an error waiting to be flagged.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[RESULTS]]



ChatGPT:

[[RESULTS]]

We discovered a home run of a correlation between the number of games won by the Miami Marlins in the National League (East Division) and the runs they've scored. Our statistical analysis uncovered a correlation coefficient of 0.8378086, indicating a strong positive relationship between these two variables. In fact, the r-squared value of 0.7019233 suggests that approximately 70.2% of the variance in the number of wins can be explained by the runs scored by the team. The p-value of less than 0.01 solidifies the statistical significance of this finding, leaving little room for doubt that there's a real connection between the Marlins' success in scoring runs and their triumphs on the field. This isn't just a base hit - it's a grand slam of a statistical relationship!

The scatterplot (Fig. 1) further illustrates the robust correlation we've uncovered. It's as clear as a perfectly thrown knuckleball on a sunny day - as the runs scored by the Marlins increase, so do their victories. It seems that when the Marlins wield their bats like magic wands, those runs lead them straight to the winner's circle.

This significant and persuasive finding provides valuable insights into the dynamics of the Marlins' success in the National League. It's not just about swings and misses; it's about connecting with the ball and bringing it home. Whether it's a statistical curveball or a straightforward fastball, our results highlight the undeniable influence of runs scored on the Marlins' wins and emphasize the importance of their offensive performance. So, when it comes to Miami Marlins baseball, it's safe to say that scoring runs is definitely their ticket to the big leagues in the win column!


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a witty academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a statistics journal.You draft the discussion section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the discussion section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Number of games won by Miami Marlins in the National League (East Division) and Runs scored by the Miami Marlins. Make lots of jokes, goofy observations, and puns. Sneak in some jokes and clever puns about science, research, statistics, and the variables.

Limit your response to 500 tokens.

Here are the title, abstract, literature review, and results sections. Please harken back to 1-2 of the goofy items in the literature review, but pretend to take them completely seriously. Discuss how your results supported the prior research.

Do not write a conclusion. I will add a conclusion after this.

[[TITLE]]
Swing and a Miss? Exploring the Slugger's Paradox: The Correlation Between Miami Marlins' Wins and Runs Scored

[[ABSTRACT]]
In this study, we delved into the fascinating relationship between the number of games won by the Miami Marlins in the National League (East Division) and the runs they scored over the span of 1993 to 2022. Using data from Baseball Reference and Baseball-Reference.com, we attempted to unravel the mystery of whether hitting more home runs translates to more victories on the diamond. With a correlation coefficient of 0.8378086 and p < 0.01, our findings reveal a strong, statistically significant connection between the Marlins' success in driving home runs and crossing the plate themselves. Our results shed light on the slugger's paradox and provide valuable insights for both baseball enthusiasts and analysts. Whether it's a home run or a grand slam, this study demonstrates that when it comes to the Marlins, runs definitely run the show.

[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]
In "Smith et al.," the authors find a significant positive correlation between the number of games won by the Miami Marlins in the National League (East Division) and the runs scored by the team. This initial investigation sheds light on the potential relationship between offensive proficiency and on-field triumphs, prompting further exploration into the underlying mechanisms driving these outcomes.
Further supporting the connection between wins and runs, "Doe and Roe" highlight the impact of batting prowess on team success, with a focus on the Miami Marlins' performance over the years. The findings suggest that a strong offensive game, particularly in terms of run production, contributes to the team's ability to clinch victories, intertwining the art of scoring runs with the science of securing wins.
Building on this foundation, "Jones and Smith" underscore the importance of home runs and RBI in shaping the Marlins' season performance, drawing attention to the potential influence of power hitting on the team's competitive edge. These initial studies form the bedrock for our in-depth exploration into the fascinating and somewhat paradoxical relationship between hitting prowess and favorable outcomes for the Miami Marlins.
Turning to sources beyond the realm of empirical research, the works of Bill James, such as "The Bill James Historical Baseball Abstract," provide valuable context for understanding the significance of offensive statistics in shaping a team's success. Additionally, the analytical framework outlined in "Moneyball" by Michael Lewis offers a thought-provoking perspective on the role of metrics in evaluating on-field performance and its implications for team triumphs, albeit in the context of a different franchise.
Expanding the scope further, fictional literature such as Bernard Malamud's "The Natural" and Philip Roth's "The Great American Novel" explore the mythical allure of baseball, intertwining themes of superstition, ambition, and the pursuit of glory on the diamond. While these literary works may not offer direct empirical insights, they contribute to the broader cultural understanding of the significance of runs and wins in the fabric of baseball lore.
As our investigation progressed, we not only delved into academic journals and classic baseball literature but also ventured into unconventional territory. Armed with an unorthodox approach, we combed through an array of eclectic sources, from dusty old almanacs to the cryptic runes of ancient baseball scorecards. Moreover, we must confess that our quest for insight into the slugger's paradox led us to scrutinize the enigmatic contents of CVS receipts, where, much to our bemusement, we unearthed fascinating ink blots that bore an uncanny resemblance to the Miami Marlins' run-scoring patterns.
In sum, while our literature review encompassed a diverse spectrum of sources, ranging from the scholarly to the speculative, we approach our investigation with a humorous nod to the colorful and oftentimes whimsical nature of the baseball narrative.

[[RESULTS]]
We discovered a home run of a correlation between the number of games won by the Miami Marlins in the National League (East Division) and the runs they've scored. Our statistical analysis uncovered a correlation coefficient of 0.8378086, indicating a strong positive relationship between these two variables. In fact, the r-squared value of 0.7019233 suggests that approximately 70.2% of the variance in the number of wins can be explained by the runs scored by the team. The p-value of less than 0.01 solidifies the statistical significance of this finding, leaving little room for doubt that there's a real connection between the Marlins' success in scoring runs and their triumphs on the field. This isn't just a base hit - it's a grand slam of a statistical relationship!
The scatterplot (Fig. 1) further illustrates the robust correlation we've uncovered. It's as clear as a perfectly thrown knuckleball on a sunny day - as the runs scored by the Marlins increase, so do their victories. It seems that when the Marlins wield their bats like magic wands, those runs lead them straight to the winner's circle.
This significant and persuasive finding provides valuable insights into the dynamics of the Marlins' success in the National League. It's not just about swings and misses; it's about connecting with the ball and bringing it home. Whether it's a statistical curveball or a straightforward fastball, our results highlight the undeniable influence of runs scored on the Marlins' wins and emphasize the importance of their offensive performance. So, when it comes to Miami Marlins baseball, it's safe to say that scoring runs is definitely their ticket to the big leagues in the win column!

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[DISCUSSION]]



ChatGPT:

[[DISCUSSION]]

Our research has hit it out of the park, revealing a compelling association between the number of games won by the Miami Marlins in the National League (East Division) and the runs scored by the team. Our findings not only add to the existing literature on the subject but also bring a breath of fresh air to the statistical exploration of baseball performance.

In line with the prior research of "Smith et al.," which highlighted a significant positive correlation between wins and runs, our results corroborate and extend this insight. It's as if our analysis stepped up to the plate and slammed a home run right into the gap between empirical findings and theoretical predictions. Moreover, the work of "Doe and Roe" emphasized the impact of batting prowess on team success, laying the groundwork for our investigation. Our results not only support but also amplify the influence of run production on the team's ability to clinch victories. It's like we're hitting the ball further out of the park with every new research endeavor, isn't it?

Now, let's talk about the elephant in the dugout - the impact of power hitting. "Jones and Smith" highlighted the importance of home runs and RBI in shaping the Marlins' seasonal performance, and our findings certainly align with this perspective. It's as if the statistical evidence has stepped up to the plate and crushed a Grand Slam, solidifying the influence of power hitting on the team's competitive edge. It's basically statistical proof that hitting dingers, driving in runs, and sending pitchers to the showers all contribute to the Marlins' success on the field. It's like a scientifically-backed high five to the power hitters out there.

In addition to the serious scientific discussion, let's remember that our journey through the literature review took us through unconventional territory, like those mysterious CVS receipts. While we may have started with some quirky anecdotes, our results have provided concrete evidence to support the importance of scoring runs for the Marlins. It's as if our statistical analysis transformed those ink blots into meaningful insight, reinforcing the significance of offensive performance in the game of baseball. Who knew that statistical analysis could turn something as quirky as CVS receipts into a valuable piece of the puzzle?

Our results not only validate but also illuminate the intriguing connection between wins and runs scored by the Miami Marlins. The statistical significance we've uncovered not only highlights the power of run production but also offers a captivating perspective on the dynamics of the Marlins' success in the National League. It's like we've revealed the secret sauce behind the Marlins' victories, and it's not just a pinch of luck - it's a heaping helping of runs scored.

In conclusion, our findings demonstrate that when it comes to the Marlins, runs really do run the show. So, whether you're a hardcore baseball enthusiast or a statistics maven, our study adds statistical meat to the bones of the slugger's paradox, reinforcing the notion that when the Marlins bring in the runs, they're not just scoring on the field - they're hitting statistical home runs.


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a witty academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a statistics journal.You draft the discussion section of goofy academic research papers that sounds like it belongs based on the title and abstract provided.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up a short conclusion of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Number of games won by Miami Marlins in the National League (East Division) and Runs scored by the Miami Marlins. Make lots of jokes, goofy observations, and puns. Sneak in some jokes and clever puns about science, research, statistics, and the variables.

Limit your response to 300 tokens. At the very end, assert that no more research is needed in this area.

Here are the title, abstract, introduction, and results sections.
[[TITLE]]
Swing and a Miss? Exploring the Slugger's Paradox: The Correlation Between Miami Marlins' Wins and Runs Scored

[[ABSTRACT]]
In this study, we delved into the fascinating relationship between the number of games won by the Miami Marlins in the National League (East Division) and the runs they scored over the span of 1993 to 2022. Using data from Baseball Reference and Baseball-Reference.com, we attempted to unravel the mystery of whether hitting more home runs translates to more victories on the diamond. With a correlation coefficient of 0.8378086 and p < 0.01, our findings reveal a strong, statistically significant connection between the Marlins' success in driving home runs and crossing the plate themselves. Our results shed light on the slugger's paradox and provide valuable insights for both baseball enthusiasts and analysts. Whether it's a home run or a grand slam, this study demonstrates that when it comes to the Marlins, runs definitely run the show.

[[INTRDUCTION]]
Sports and statistics have a lot in common - both involve numbers, both have die-hard fans, and both can lead to a fair amount of head-scratching. In this vein, we embark on a statistical journey to explore the dynamic relationship between the Miami Marlins' victory tally in the National League (East Division) and their prowess at scoring runs. As we delve into this intersection of athletics and analytics, we aim to hit a statistical home run and uncover whether there is a solid connection between the Marlins' ability to drive home runs and drive up their wins.
It's often quipped that statistics are like a bikini - what they reveal is suggestive, but what they conceal is vital. With this in mind, we set out to unravel the mystery surrounding the correlation between the Marlins' scoring prowess and their triumphs on the field. From the crack of the bat to the roar of the crowd, every swing and every run are potential clues in this statistical game of cat and mouse.
Much like a good fastball, our data comes in hot from Baseball Reference and Baseball-Reference.com, covering a span of nearly three decades, encompassing the Marlins' on-field exploits from 1993 to 2022. Armed with this wealth of statistical treasure, we seek to dig deep, not only for base hits but also for meaningful insights that can help us knock it out of the park in understanding the dynamics of baseball success.
As scholars of the game and enthusiasts of quantitative analysis, we eagerly anticipate unearthing any hints of correlation between the Marlins' victories and their prowess for knocking in those oh-so-crucial runs. With our bats held high and our statistical gloves at the ready, we aim to shed light on the slugger's paradox and reveal whether the age-old adage of "chicks dig the long ball" also holds true in the realm of victory tallies. So, put on your rally caps and get ready for a statistical showdown because, in the world of Miami Marlins baseball, it's time to see if there's more than meets the "I."
With our puns poised and our analysis primed, we invite you to join us on this statistical romp through the hallowed halls of baseball lore. From the diamond to the spreadsheet, from batting averages to correlation coefficients, let's uncover whether there's a home run hiding in the data or just an error waiting to be flagged.

[[RESULTS]]
We discovered a home run of a correlation between the number of games won by the Miami Marlins in the National League (East Division) and the runs they've scored. Our statistical analysis uncovered a correlation coefficient of 0.8378086, indicating a strong positive relationship between these two variables. In fact, the r-squared value of 0.7019233 suggests that approximately 70.2% of the variance in the number of wins can be explained by the runs scored by the team. The p-value of less than 0.01 solidifies the statistical significance of this finding, leaving little room for doubt that there's a real connection between the Marlins' success in scoring runs and their triumphs on the field. This isn't just a base hit - it's a grand slam of a statistical relationship!
The scatterplot (Fig. 1) further illustrates the robust correlation we've uncovered. It's as clear as a perfectly thrown knuckleball on a sunny day - as the runs scored by the Marlins increase, so do their victories. It seems that when the Marlins wield their bats like magic wands, those runs lead them straight to the winner's circle.
This significant and persuasive finding provides valuable insights into the dynamics of the Marlins' success in the National League. It's not just about swings and misses; it's about connecting with the ball and bringing it home. Whether it's a statistical curveball or a straightforward fastball, our results highlight the undeniable influence of runs scored on the Marlins' wins and emphasize the importance of their offensive performance. So, when it comes to Miami Marlins baseball, it's safe to say that scoring runs is definitely their ticket to the big leagues in the win column!

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[CONCLUSION]]



ChatGPT:

[[CONCLUSION]]

In conclusion, our study has hit a statistical home run by establishing a robust correlation between the number of victories secured by the Miami Marlins in the National League (East Division) and the runs they've tallied. Our findings emphasize that when it comes to the Marlins, it's not just about the thrill of the game - it's about the thrilling number of runs they score that leads to victory.

We've unearthed a relationship so strong, it's as reliable as that one friend who always brings the snacks to the game. Our correlation coefficient of 0.8378086 not only shows a strong positive connection but also suggests that the Marlins' ability to send runners home significantly contributes to their triumphs on the diamond.

Our findings are as clear as the strike zone on a cloudless day, leaving little room for doubt that the statistical significance of this relationship is more compelling than an extra-inning nail-biter. With a p-value of less than 0.01, our results are as meaningful as a walk-off home run in the bottom of the ninth.

It's safe to say that when the Marlins are in the business of scoring runs, victory becomes their business card at the national league office. Our analysis highlights the importance of their offensive prowess, proving that "three strikes and you're out" is just a myth when it comes to their ability to secure wins.

In short, our research provides valuable insights for both baseball enthusiasts and analysts, shedding light on the slugger's paradox and affording a chuckle or two along the way. We can confidently proclaim that when it comes to the Miami Marlins, runs aren't just runs - they're the route to success.

Therefore, we assert that further research in this area is as unnecessary as a rain delay in a retractable-roof stadium. Our findings stand as solid as a well-turned double play, capturing the essence of the Marlins' success and leaving little room for further questioning. It's a statistical grand slam, and we'll gladly take the curtain call.


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide fictional names of academic journals. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide the name of a funny but plausible sounding research, scientific, or academic journal that would publish a paper entited Swing and a Miss? Exploring the Slugger's Paradox: The Correlation Between Miami Marlins' Wins and Runs Scored. Respond only with the name of a fictional academic journal.

ChatGPT:

The Home Run Hypothesis: Journal of Sports Analytics


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide fictional names of nonprofit research organizations and associations. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide the name of a funny but plausible sounding nonprofit, academic, or scientific association or organization that would sponsor research that resulted in a paper entited Swing and a Miss? Exploring the Slugger's Paradox: The Correlation Between Miami Marlins' Wins and Runs Scored. Respond only with the name of a fictional organization.

ChatGPT:

The Society for Advanced Statistical Analysis in Sports (SASAS)


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide potential search keywords separated by commas. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide potential search keywords for a paper titled Swing and a Miss? Exploring the Slugger's Paradox: The Correlation Between Miami Marlins' Wins and Runs Scored with an abstract of In this study, we delved into the fascinating relationship between the number of games won by the Miami Marlins in the National League (East Division) and the runs they scored over the span of 1993 to 2022. Using data from Baseball Reference and Baseball-Reference.com, we attempted to unravel the mystery of whether hitting more home runs translates to more victories on the diamond. With a correlation coefficient of 0.8378086 and p < 0.01, our findings reveal a strong, statistically significant connection between the Marlins' success in driving home runs and crossing the plate themselves. Our results shed light on the slugger's paradox and provide valuable insights for both baseball enthusiasts and analysts. Whether it's a home run or a grand slam, this study demonstrates that when it comes to the Marlins, runs definitely run the show.

ChatGPT:

Miami Marlins, National League, East Division, wins, runs scored, correlation, baseball, home runs, victories, diamond, correlation coefficient, statistical significance, slugger's paradox, Baseball Reference, Baseball-Reference.com, grand slam

*There is a bunch of Python happening behind the scenes to turn this prompt sequence into a PDF.



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Data details

Number of games won by Miami Marlins in the National League (East Division)
Source: Baseball Reference
See what else correlates with Number of games won by Miami Marlins in the National League (East Division)

Runs scored by the Miami Marlins
Detailed data title: The total number of runs scored during the year by the Miami Marlins
Source: Baseball-Reference.com
See what else correlates with Runs scored by the Miami Marlins

Correlation r = 0.8378086 (Pearson correlation coefficient)
Correlation is a measure of how much the variables move together. If it is 0.99, when one goes up the other goes up. If it is 0.02, the connection is very weak or non-existent. If it is -0.99, then when one goes up the other goes down. If it is 1.00, you probably messed up your correlation function.

r2 = 0.7019233 (Coefficient of determination)
This means 70.2% of the change in the one variable (i.e., Runs scored by the Miami Marlins) is predictable based on the change in the other (i.e., Number of games won by Miami Marlins in the National League (East Division)) over the 30 years from 1993 through 2022.

p < 0.01, which is statistically significant(Null hypothesis significance test)
The p-value is 7.7E-9. 0.0000000076908611961454980000
The p-value is a measure of how probable it is that we would randomly find a result this extreme. More specifically the p-value is a measure of how probable it is that we would randomly find a result this extreme if we had only tested one pair of variables one time.

But I am a p-villain. I absolutely did not test only one pair of variables one time. I correlated hundreds of millions of pairs of variables. I threw boatloads of data into an industrial-sized blender to find this correlation.

Who is going to stop me? p-value reporting doesn't require me to report how many calculations I had to go through in order to find a low p-value!
On average, you will find a correaltion as strong as 0.84 in 7.7E-7% of random cases. Said differently, if you correlated 130,024,450 random variables You don't actually need 130 million variables to find a correlation like this one. I don't have that many variables in my database. You can also correlate variables that are not independent. I do this a lot.

p-value calculations are useful for understanding the probability of a result happening by chance. They are most useful when used to highlight the risk of a fluke outcome. For example, if you calculate a p-value of 0.30, the risk that the result is a fluke is high. It is good to know that! But there are lots of ways to get a p-value of less than 0.01, as evidenced by this project.

In this particular case, the values are so extreme as to be meaningless. That's why no one reports p-values with specificity after they drop below 0.01.

Just to be clear: I'm being completely transparent about the calculations. There is no math trickery. This is just how statistics shakes out when you calculate hundreds of millions of random correlations.
with the same 29 degrees of freedom, Degrees of freedom is a measure of how many free components we are testing. In this case it is 29 because we have two variables measured over a period of 30 years. It's just the number of years minus ( the number of variables minus one ), which in this case simplifies to the number of years minus one.
you would randomly expect to find a correlation as strong as this one.

[ 0.68, 0.92 ] 95% correlation confidence interval (using the Fisher z-transformation)
The confidence interval is an estimate the range of the value of the correlation coefficient, using the correlation itself as an input. The values are meant to be the low and high end of the correlation coefficient with 95% confidence.

This one is a bit more complciated than the other calculations, but I include it because many people have been pushing for confidence intervals instead of p-value calculations (for example: NEJM. However, if you are dredging data, you can reliably find yourself in the 5%. That's my goal!


All values for the years included above: If I were being very sneaky, I could trim years from the beginning or end of the datasets to increase the correlation on some pairs of variables. I don't do that because there are already plenty of correlations in my database without monkeying with the years.

Still, sometimes one of the variables has more years of data available than the other. This page only shows the overlapping years. To see all the years, click on "See what else correlates with..." link above.
199319941995199619971998199920002001200220032004200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022
Number of games won by Miami Marlins in the National League (East Division) (Games Won)645167809254647976799183837871848780726962777179776357316769
Runs scored by the Miami Marlins (Runs scored)581468673688740667691731742699751718717758790770772719625609513645613655778589615263623586




Why this works

  1. Data dredging: I have 25,153 variables in my database. I compare all these variables against each other to find ones that randomly match up. That's 632,673,409 correlation calculations! This is called “data dredging.” Instead of starting with a hypothesis and testing it, I instead abused the data to see what correlations shake out. It’s a dangerous way to go about analysis, because any sufficiently large dataset will yield strong correlations completely at random.
  2. Lack of causal connection: There is probably Because these pages are automatically generated, it's possible that the two variables you are viewing are in fact causually related. I take steps to prevent the obvious ones from showing on the site (I don't let data about the weather in one city correlate with the weather in a neighboring city, for example), but sometimes they still pop up. If they are related, cool! You found a loophole.
    no direct connection between these variables, despite what the AI says above. This is exacerbated by the fact that I used "Years" as the base variable. Lots of things happen in a year that are not related to each other! Most studies would use something like "one person" in stead of "one year" to be the "thing" studied.
  3. Observations not independent: For many variables, sequential years are not independent of each other. If a population of people is continuously doing something every day, there is no reason to think they would suddenly change how they are doing that thing on January 1. A simple Personally I don't find any p-value calculation to be 'simple,' but you know what I mean.
    p-value calculation does not take this into account, so mathematically it appears less probable than it really is.
  4. Confounding variable: 2020 is particularly different from the other years on this graph. Confounding variables (like global pandemics) will cause two variables to look connected when in fact a "sneaky third" variable is influencing both of them behind the scenes.




Try it yourself

You can calculate the values on this page on your own! Try running the Python code to see the calculation results. Step 1: Download and install Python on your computer.

Step 2: Open a plaintext editor like Notepad and paste the code below into it.

Step 3: Save the file as "calculate_correlation.py" in a place you will remember, like your desktop. Copy the file location to your clipboard. On Windows, you can right-click the file and click "Properties," and then copy what comes after "Location:" As an example, on my computer the location is "C:\Users\tyler\Desktop"

Step 4: Open a command line window. For example, by pressing start and typing "cmd" and them pressing enter.

Step 5: Install the required modules by typing "pip install numpy", then pressing enter, then typing "pip install scipy", then pressing enter.

Step 6: Navigate to the location where you saved the Python file by using the "cd" command. For example, I would type "cd C:\Users\tyler\Desktop" and push enter.

Step 7: Run the Python script by typing "python calculate_correlation.py"

If you run into any issues, I suggest asking ChatGPT to walk you through installing Python and running the code below on your system. Try this question:

"Walk me through installing Python on my computer to run a script that uses scipy and numpy. Go step-by-step and ask me to confirm before moving on. Start by asking me questions about my operating system so that you know how to proceed. Assume I want the simplest installation with the latest version of Python and that I do not currently have any of the necessary elements installed. Remember to only give me one step per response and confirm I have done it before proceeding."


# These modules make it easier to perform the calculation
import numpy as np
from scipy import stats

# We'll define a function that we can call to return the correlation calculations
def calculate_correlation(array1, array2):

    # Calculate Pearson correlation coefficient and p-value
    correlation, p_value = stats.pearsonr(array1, array2)

    # Calculate R-squared as the square of the correlation coefficient
    r_squared = correlation**2

    return correlation, r_squared, p_value

# These are the arrays for the variables shown on this page, but you can modify them to be any two sets of numbers
array_1 = np.array([64,51,67,80,92,54,64,79,76,79,91,83,83,78,71,84,87,80,72,69,62,77,71,79,77,63,57,31,67,69,])
array_2 = np.array([581,468,673,688,740,667,691,731,742,699,751,718,717,758,790,770,772,719,625,609,513,645,613,655,778,589,615,263,623,586,])
array_1_name = "Number of games won by Miami Marlins in the National League (East Division)"
array_2_name = "Runs scored by the Miami Marlins"

# Perform the calculation
print(f"Calculating the correlation between {array_1_name} and {array_2_name}...")
correlation, r_squared, p_value = calculate_correlation(array_1, array_2)

# Print the results
print("Correlation Coefficient:", correlation)
print("R-squared:", r_squared)
print("P-value:", p_value)



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You do not need to attribute "the spurious correlations website," and you don't even need to link here if you don't want to. I don't gain anything from pageviews. There are no ads on this site, there is nothing for sale, and I am not for hire.

For the record, I am just one person. Tyler Vigen, he/him/his. I do have degrees, but they should not go after my name unless you want to annoy my wife. If that is your goal, then go ahead and cite me as "Tyler Vigen, A.A. A.A.S. B.A. J.D." Otherwise it is just "Tyler Vigen."

When spoken, my last name is pronounced "vegan," like I don't eat meat.

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Correlation ID: 2402 · Black Variable ID: 365 · Red Variable ID: 4362
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