Spurious correlation #2,279 · View random
A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is Patents granted in the US and the second variable is ONEOK's stock price (OKE). The chart goes from 2002 to 2020, and the two variables track closely in value over that time.

A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is Patents granted in the US and the second variable is ONEOK's stock price (OKE). The chart goes from 2002 to 2020, and the two variables track closely in value over that time.

Download png, svg

AI explanation

As more patents are granted, there is a surge in wacky inventions. ONEOK decides to patent the groundbreaking technology of turning natural gas into dad jokes, creating a monopoly on energy-related humor. This leaves investors gasping for a good laugh, driving up demand for ONEOK's stock and ultimately increasing its price.

^{Show image generation prompt} Model: dalle-3
Prompt: Prompt: Generate an image that embodies a futuristic aesthetic, showcasing a large, pristine US patent document overlaid with a shimmering golden seal. The document should be placed atop a sleek stock ticker screen displaying the stock price of ONEOK, with the price steadily ascending. The scene should exude a sense of innovation and progress, with a seamless blend of traditional authority (the patent) and modern financial success (the rising stock price). The depiction should include only scenes, people, and objects, it should not include text or speech bubbles.

This image generation prompt was also generated by AI, using the following sequence:

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You select one of a few potential scene descriptors that seems to go along with the variables described. You respond only with the scene descriptions provided and say nothing else.
User prompt: Here are two variables: Patents granted in the US and ONEOK's stock price. Given these, which of the following image style descriptions seems most appropriate? Pick the one that seems to be related to one of the variables at hand. Please respond with only one of the following potential descriptions: Low poly Futuristic Photorealism Cute cartoon Charcoal
ChatGPT: Futuristic

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You describe simple visual scenes that depict the two variables stated. You combine both variables into one scene.
User prompt: Please describe a visual scene that prominently depicts both Patents granted in the US and ONEOK's stock price together. Keep the description simple.
ChatGPT: A large US patent document sits atop a stock ticker screen displaying ONEOK's stock price. The patent document is adorned with a golden seal, while the stock ticker shows ONEOK's stock price rising steadily.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You write and improve image generation prompts for DALLE-3. You maintain the same subjects, but enhance the visuals.
User prompt: Please respond with an image generation prompt that would be likely to create an interesting visual using DALLE-3, using the following style: [ Futuristic ] and depicting this scene: A large US patent document sits atop a stock ticker screen displaying ONEOK's stock price. The patent document is adorned with a golden seal, while the stock ticker shows ONEOK's stock price rising steadily. Keep the visual depiction simple. Do not include any words or speech bubbles.
ChatGPT: Prompt: Generate an image that embodies a futuristic aesthetic, showcasing a large, pristine US patent document overlaid with a shimmering golden seal. The document should be placed atop a sleek stock ticker screen displaying the stock price of ONEOK, with the price steadily ascending. The scene should exude a sense of innovation and progress, with a seamless blend of traditional authority (the patent) and modern financial success (the rising stock price).

*Variations in the User Prompts from chart to chart are just the result of random number generation in Python. I wrote a few arrays of various styles and methods to ask questions to change up the results. Every time this site writes an explanation or generates an image, the script picks from each at random.

I sequence the requests into multiple prompts because I find GPT 3.5 to perform much better with short, well-managed contexts. Thus, I track the context directly in Python and only ask ChatGPT targeted questions.
^{Show prompt for explanation} Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106 (fine-tuned)
System prompt: You provide humorous responses in the form of plausible sounding explanations for correlations. You assume the correlation is causative for the purpose of the explanation even if it is ridiculous. You do not chat with the user, you only reply with the causal connection explanation and nothing else.
User prompt: Please make up a funny explanation for how an increase in Patents granted in the US caused ONEOK's stock price (OKE) to increase.

AI academic paper

(Because p < 0.01)

Patenting and ONEOK's Stock: A Rhyme About Prime Time?

The Journal of Quirky Financial Analysis

Jan 2024

Reminder: This paper is AI-generated. Not real!

^{Show prompt used to generate this paper} Quick note: This sequence is long and repetitive. That's how the prompt engineering works for this one. I manage the output in Python to format it into this PDF.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a goofy academic researcher writing an academic paper. You follow the rules, but you throw out convention regularly to make jokes and funny asides.You draft a literature review section of an academic research paper, that starts out dry for the first few sentences but then becomes hilarious and goofy.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up a literature review section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Patents granted in the US and ONEOK's stock price (OKE). Make it seem dry like academic research paper, but with lots of subtle hidden offhand remarks, jokes, goofy observations, and puns.

Speak in the present tense for this section (the authors find...), as is common in academic research paper literature reviews. Name the sources in a format similar to this: In "Book," the authors find lorem and ipsum.

Make up the lorem and ipsum part, but make it sound related to the topic at hand.

Start by naming serious-sounding studies by authors like Smith, Doe, and Jones - but then quickly devolve. Name some real non-fiction books that would be related to the topic. Then name some real fiction books that sound like they could be related. Then name some cartoons and childrens' shows that you watched that are related to the topic.

Here is the title and abstract of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
"Patenting and ONEOK's Stock: A Rhyme About Prime Time?"

[[ABSTRACT]]
This study investigates the connection between patents granted in the United States and the stock price of ONEOK Inc. (OKE) using data from the United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv) for the period of 2002 to 2020. The analysis reveals a remarkably high correlation coefficient of 0.9162755 and a statistically significant p-value of less than 0.01, suggesting a strong relationship between the two variables. In this paper, we delve into the empirical evidence of this causal link, exploring how patents, with their innovative flair and creative spark, may indeed fuel stock market movements, lighting the way for investors seeking to strike it rich. We discuss the potential implications of these findings, considering whether patents, like hidden treasures in a sea of ideas, might hold the key to unlocking stock market success. So buckle up, dear readers, and get ready for a rollercoaster ride through the patent landscape and stock market territory, where the only thing certain is the uncertainty of the future!

-------

And here is the introduction section that led to this literature review:
[[INTRODUCTION]]
The intersection of intellectual property and financial markets has long been a topic of interest for researchers and investors alike. In this paper, we embark on a quest to unravel the enigmatic relationship between patents granted in the United States and the stock price of ONEOK Inc. (OKE). As we navigate this terrain, we cannot help but marvel at the prospect of unearthing the hidden patterns and connections that lie beneath the surface, much like intrepid explorers venturing into uncharted territories armed with nothing but a spreadsheet and a sense of curiosity.
The allure of patents, with their promise of exclusivity and innovation, mirrors the intrigue of a scientific puzzle waiting to be pieced together, much like assembling a jigsaw puzzle where the missing piece is the elusive key to outrageous profits. On the other hand, the stock market dances to a tune that sounds suspiciously like a blend of stochastic processes and investor psychology. It's a waltz that leaves even the most seasoned analysts feeling like they're in dire need of a refresher dance lesson or perhaps a quick game of scientific roulette.
Let's set the stage with a bit of scientific banter: if a patent falls in the USPTO database and no one invests in the corresponding company, does it make a sound? As we embark on this scholarly escapade, we must approach the subject matter with the appropriate mix of seriousness and whimsy, much like a high-stakes board game that brings out the competitive spirit in even the most mild-mannered academics.
The correlation coefficient, our trusty guide in this voyage of discovery, gleams like a beacon in the darkness, hinting at a relationship so tantalizingly intimate that it virtually whispers "buy low, sell high" in our ears. With a statistically significant p-value that practically winks at us from across the spreadsheet, the evidence of this connection is as clear as a scientist's safety goggles - and just as essential for navigating the treacherous waters of the stock market.
As we delve further into the labyrinth of data and statistics, we are reminded of the timeless wisdom of scientific inquiry: correlation does not imply causation, but it sure does make for a captivating story. So, dear reader, fasten your seatbelts and prepare for a pulse-quickening expedition through the entwined realms of patents and stock prices, where the only thing more unpredictable than the results is the precarious balance of science and speculation.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]

ChatGPT:
[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]

The nexus between patents and stock prices has ignited the curiosity of scholars and financial enthusiasts alike, prompting a quest for unraveling the intricate dance between creative ingenuity and market valuation. As we embark on this quest, we turn to the scholarly works that precede our inquiry, seeking insights and understanding like intrepid explorers partaking in an intellectual treasure hunt.

Smith et al. (2010) examined the relationship between intellectual property rights and firm value, delving into the complex web of patents and their impact on stock performance. Their findings shed light on the potential influence of patents on market dynamics, hinting at a connection that extends beyond mere coincidence. Building upon this foundation, Doe and Jones (2015) unearthed compelling evidence linking patent portfolio quality to firm value, illuminating the nuanced interplay between innovation and financial success.

Expanding our purview beyond the realm of academic research, we look to the insights offered by non-fiction literature. In "The Innovators" by Walter Isaacson, the author chronicles the captivating stories of inventors and their groundbreaking creations, inviting us to ponder the transformative power of innovation on economic landscapes. Similarly, "Patent Politics" by Shobita Parthasarathy delves into the intricate world of patents and public policy, hinting at the far-reaching implications of intellectual property on societal and economic domains.

As we navigate the terrain of literary contributions, we encounter fictional works that, albeit not rooted in empirical evidence, offer imaginative perspectives on invention and finance. Jules Verne's "Twenty Thousand Leagues Under the Sea" conjures visions of futuristic inventions, sparking whimsical contemplations on the fusion of creativity and value creation. Michael Crichton's "Prey" draws readers into a thrilling narrative where scientific innovation takes center stage, igniting speculative musings on the unforeseen consequences of technological advancements.

In the realm of popular culture, the animated series "DuckTales" and its adventurous escapades echo the spirit of exploration and discovery, evoking parallels to our own scholarly journey. Meanwhile, the wily exploits of "The Pink Panther" invite lighthearted reflections on the unpredictable nature of financial markets, reminding us that unraveling the mysteries of investment may require a dose of playful cunning.

Armed with insights from scholarly endeavors, literary imaginings, and whimsical forays into popular culture, we embark on our own inquiry, poised to illuminate the entwined realms of patents and stock prices with a blend of scholarly rigor and a touch, (or perhaps a heavy dollop), of quirk and humor.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a goofy academic researcher writing an academic paper. You follow the rules, but you throw out convention regularly to make jokes and funny asides.You draft the methodology section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the methodology section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Patents granted in the US and ONEOK's stock price (OKE). Make it seem dry like academic research paper, but with lots of subtle hidden offhand remarks, jokes, goofy observations, and puns. Sneak in some jokes and clever puns about science, research, statistics, and the variables.

Your research team collected data from all across the internet, but mostly just used information from USPTO and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv) . You used data from 2002 to 2020

Make up the research methods you don't know. Make them a bit goofy and convoluted.

Here is the title, abstract, and introduction of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
"Patenting and ONEOK's Stock: A Rhyme About Prime Time?"

[[ABSTRACT]]
This study investigates the connection between patents granted in the United States and the stock price of ONEOK Inc. (OKE) using data from the United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv) for the period of 2002 to 2020. The analysis reveals a remarkably high correlation coefficient of 0.9162755 and a statistically significant p-value of less than 0.01, suggesting a strong relationship between the two variables. In this paper, we delve into the empirical evidence of this causal link, exploring how patents, with their innovative flair and creative spark, may indeed fuel stock market movements, lighting the way for investors seeking to strike it rich. We discuss the potential implications of these findings, considering whether patents, like hidden treasures in a sea of ideas, might hold the key to unlocking stock market success. So buckle up, dear readers, and get ready for a rollercoaster ride through the patent landscape and stock market territory, where the only thing certain is the uncertainty of the future!

[[INTRODUCTION]]
The intersection of intellectual property and financial markets has long been a topic of interest for researchers and investors alike. In this paper, we embark on a quest to unravel the enigmatic relationship between patents granted in the United States and the stock price of ONEOK Inc. (OKE). As we navigate this terrain, we cannot help but marvel at the prospect of unearthing the hidden patterns and connections that lie beneath the surface, much like intrepid explorers venturing into uncharted territories armed with nothing but a spreadsheet and a sense of curiosity.
The allure of patents, with their promise of exclusivity and innovation, mirrors the intrigue of a scientific puzzle waiting to be pieced together, much like assembling a jigsaw puzzle where the missing piece is the elusive key to outrageous profits. On the other hand, the stock market dances to a tune that sounds suspiciously like a blend of stochastic processes and investor psychology. It's a waltz that leaves even the most seasoned analysts feeling like they're in dire need of a refresher dance lesson or perhaps a quick game of scientific roulette.
Let's set the stage with a bit of scientific banter: if a patent falls in the USPTO database and no one invests in the corresponding company, does it make a sound? As we embark on this scholarly escapade, we must approach the subject matter with the appropriate mix of seriousness and whimsy, much like a high-stakes board game that brings out the competitive spirit in even the most mild-mannered academics.
The correlation coefficient, our trusty guide in this voyage of discovery, gleams like a beacon in the darkness, hinting at a relationship so tantalizingly intimate that it virtually whispers "buy low, sell high" in our ears. With a statistically significant p-value that practically winks at us from across the spreadsheet, the evidence of this connection is as clear as a scientist's safety goggles - and just as essential for navigating the treacherous waters of the stock market.
As we delve further into the labyrinth of data and statistics, we are reminded of the timeless wisdom of scientific inquiry: correlation does not imply causation, but it sure does make for a captivating story. So, dear reader, fasten your seatbelts and prepare for a pulse-quickening expedition through the entwined realms of patents and stock prices, where the only thing more unpredictable than the results is the precarious balance of science and speculation.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[METHODOLOGY]]

ChatGPT:

[[METHODOLOGY]]

To embark on our scholarly journey through the tangled web of patents and stock prices, we harnessed the power of data mining and statistical analysis, much like intrepid prospectors panning for golden nuggets in a rushing river of information. Our data, sourced from the United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv) for the period spanning from 2002 to 2020, resembled a collection of rare specimens waiting to be scrutinized under the microscope of investigation.

The first phase of our expedition involved wrangling the raw data from its digital hideaway, akin to coaxing an elusive creature out of its shadowy lair. We meticulously combed through the USPTO database, with its labyrinthine corridors of patent filings, using a top-secret combination of clever keywords, algorithms, and a touch of good old-fashioned luck. Meanwhile, our forays into the financial data from LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv) resembled a daring mission to navigate the tumultuous seas of stock market information, where waves of price fluctuations crashed against the rocky shores of financial unpredictability.

Having corralled our data, we then set about the task of pruning, cleansing, and preening it to achieve a level of pristine purity that would make even the most pedantic statistician nod in approval. Much like a bonsai tree sculptor carefully snipping away at unruly branches, we meticulously curated the dataset, eradicating outliers and errors with the precision of a laser-guided statistical scalpel. Only once we had achieved a level of data cleanliness that would make a laboratory technician proud did we proceed to the next phase of our mission.

With our pristine dataset in hand, we then summoned the mystical powers of statistical analysis to unravel the enchanting dance between patents and stock prices. Employing a diverse arsenal of tools including correlation analysis, regression models, and time series analysis, we sought to illuminate the hidden connections between these seemingly disparate realms. Much like alchemists of yore, we fervently mixed the potent ingredients of data and mathematical incantations, hoping to transmute the raw data into golden nuggets of insight.

Using bespoke statistical software, we conducted rigorous analyses to unearth the relationship between patents granted in the United States and the stock price of ONEOK Inc. (OKE). Our statistical arsenal stood at the ready, armed with the power to discern patterns, unveil secrets, and perhaps even banish the specter of randomness from our midst. With bated breath and a touch of trepidation, we unleashed our statistical methods upon the dataset, eager to witness the arcane magic of numbers in motion.

Stay tuned for the results, where our intrepid band of researchers wade through the murky depths of data, armed with statistical tools and an unquenchable thirst for discovery. And remember, dear reader, in the thrilling pursuit of knowledge, even the most mundane methodology can harbor a wealth of unexpected surprises!

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a goofy academic researcher writing an academic paper. You follow the rules, but you throw out convention regularly to make jokes and funny asides.You draft the results section of an academic research paper. You speak in the past tense (you found...).
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the results section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Patents granted in the US and ONEOK's stock price (OKE). Make it seem dry like academic research paper, but with lots of subtle hidden offhand remarks, jokes, goofy observations, and puns. Sneak in some jokes and clever puns about science, research, statistics, and the variables.

Your research team collected data from all across the internet, but mostly just used information from USPTO and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv) .

For the time period 2002 to 2020, you found a correlation 0.9162755, r-squared of 0.8395608, and p < 0.01.

One figure will be included. The figure (Fig. 1) is a scatterplot showing the strong correlation between the two variables. You don't need to specify where; I will add the figure.

Here is the title and abstract of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
"Patenting and ONEOK's Stock: A Rhyme About Prime Time?"

[[ABSTRACT]]
This study investigates the connection between patents granted in the United States and the stock price of ONEOK Inc. (OKE) using data from the United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv) for the period of 2002 to 2020. The analysis reveals a remarkably high correlation coefficient of 0.9162755 and a statistically significant p-value of less than 0.01, suggesting a strong relationship between the two variables. In this paper, we delve into the empirical evidence of this causal link, exploring how patents, with their innovative flair and creative spark, may indeed fuel stock market movements, lighting the way for investors seeking to strike it rich. We discuss the potential implications of these findings, considering whether patents, like hidden treasures in a sea of ideas, might hold the key to unlocking stock market success. So buckle up, dear readers, and get ready for a rollercoaster ride through the patent landscape and stock market territory, where the only thing certain is the uncertainty of the future!

-------

And here is the methodology section that led to this result:
[[METHODOLOGY]]
The intersection of intellectual property and financial markets has long been a topic of interest for researchers and investors alike. In this paper, we embark on a quest to unravel the enigmatic relationship between patents granted in the United States and the stock price of ONEOK Inc. (OKE). As we navigate this terrain, we cannot help but marvel at the prospect of unearthing the hidden patterns and connections that lie beneath the surface, much like intrepid explorers venturing into uncharted territories armed with nothing but a spreadsheet and a sense of curiosity.
The allure of patents, with their promise of exclusivity and innovation, mirrors the intrigue of a scientific puzzle waiting to be pieced together, much like assembling a jigsaw puzzle where the missing piece is the elusive key to outrageous profits. On the other hand, the stock market dances to a tune that sounds suspiciously like a blend of stochastic processes and investor psychology. It's a waltz that leaves even the most seasoned analysts feeling like they're in dire need of a refresher dance lesson or perhaps a quick game of scientific roulette.
Let's set the stage with a bit of scientific banter: if a patent falls in the USPTO database and no one invests in the corresponding company, does it make a sound? As we embark on this scholarly escapade, we must approach the subject matter with the appropriate mix of seriousness and whimsy, much like a high-stakes board game that brings out the competitive spirit in even the most mild-mannered academics.
The correlation coefficient, our trusty guide in this voyage of discovery, gleams like a beacon in the darkness, hinting at a relationship so tantalizingly intimate that it virtually whispers "buy low, sell high" in our ears. With a statistically significant p-value that practically winks at us from across the spreadsheet, the evidence of this connection is as clear as a scientist's safety goggles - and just as essential for navigating the treacherous waters of the stock market.
As we delve further into the labyrinth of data and statistics, we are reminded of the timeless wisdom of scientific inquiry: correlation does not imply causation, but it sure does make for a captivating story. So, dear reader, fasten your seatbelts and prepare for a pulse-quickening expedition through the entwined realms of patents and stock prices, where the only thing more unpredictable than the results is the precarious balance of science and speculation.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[RESULTS]]

ChatGPT:

[[RESULTS]]

The results of our analysis revealed a strikingly high correlation coefficient of 0.9162755 between patents granted in the United States and the stock price of ONEOK Inc. (OKE) over the period from 2002 to 2020. This correlation coefficient, like a prized gem in a sea of statistics, shone brightly, indicating a notably strong relationship between these two variables.

Furthermore, the calculated r-squared value of 0.8395608 suggested that a substantial portion of the variability in ONEOK's stock price can be explained by the number of patents granted in the United States. It's as if the patents were whispering sweet nothings to ONEOK's stock price, influencing its every move like a conductor guiding an orchestra through a musical masterpiece.

The p-value of less than 0.01 provided strong evidence to reject the null hypothesis of no relationship between patents and ONEOK's stock price, further solidifying the notion that there exists a meaningful association between these two seemingly disparate entities. The probability of such a strong relationship occurring by mere chance is so low that one might say it's rarer than a unicorn sighting in a statisticians' convention.

In Figure 1, the scatterplot visually captures the robust connection between patents granted in the United States and ONEOK's stock price, plotting a course through the tumultuous sea of market dynamics and intellectual property with the finesse of a seasoned sailor navigating treacherous waters. The points on the scatterplot form a pattern so clear that even the most skeptical observer would have to admit that something fishy, or perhaps patent-y, is afoot.

These results shed light on the intriguing nexus between patents and stock prices, prompting us to ponder whether patents are not just a reflection of innovation, but also a harbinger of financial success. It seems as though the unmistakable bond between these two variables is as undeniable as the force of gravity - or perhaps as mystifying as the allure of a research puzzle just waiting to be solved.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a goofy academic researcher writing an academic paper. You follow the rules, but you throw out convention regularly to make jokes and funny asides.You draft the discussion section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the discussion section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Patents granted in the US and ONEOK's stock price (OKE). Make it seem dry like academic research paper, but with lots of subtle hidden offhand remarks, jokes, goofy observations, and puns. Sneak in some jokes and clever puns about science, research, statistics, and the variables.

Limit your response to 500 tokens.

Here are the title, abstract, literature review, and results sections. Please harken back to 1-2 of the goofy items in the literature review, but pretend to take them completely seriously. Discuss how your results supported the prior research.

Do not write a conclusion. I will add a conclusion after this.

[[TITLE]]
"Patenting and ONEOK's Stock: A Rhyme About Prime Time?"

[[ABSTRACT]]
This study investigates the connection between patents granted in the United States and the stock price of ONEOK Inc. (OKE) using data from the United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv) for the period of 2002 to 2020. The analysis reveals a remarkably high correlation coefficient of 0.9162755 and a statistically significant p-value of less than 0.01, suggesting a strong relationship between the two variables. In this paper, we delve into the empirical evidence of this causal link, exploring how patents, with their innovative flair and creative spark, may indeed fuel stock market movements, lighting the way for investors seeking to strike it rich. We discuss the potential implications of these findings, considering whether patents, like hidden treasures in a sea of ideas, might hold the key to unlocking stock market success. So buckle up, dear readers, and get ready for a rollercoaster ride through the patent landscape and stock market territory, where the only thing certain is the uncertainty of the future!

[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]
The nexus between patents and stock prices has ignited the curiosity of scholars and financial enthusiasts alike, prompting a quest for unraveling the intricate dance between creative ingenuity and market valuation. As we embark on this quest, we turn to the scholarly works that precede our inquiry, seeking insights and understanding like intrepid explorers partaking in an intellectual treasure hunt.
Smith et al. (2010) examined the relationship between intellectual property rights and firm value, delving into the complex web of patents and their impact on stock performance. Their findings shed light on the potential influence of patents on market dynamics, hinting at a connection that extends beyond mere coincidence. Building upon this foundation, Doe and Jones (2015) unearthed compelling evidence linking patent portfolio quality to firm value, illuminating the nuanced interplay between innovation and financial success.
Expanding our purview beyond the realm of academic research, we look to the insights offered by non-fiction literature. In "The Innovators" by Walter Isaacson, the author chronicles the captivating stories of inventors and their groundbreaking creations, inviting us to ponder the transformative power of innovation on economic landscapes. Similarly, "Patent Politics" by Shobita Parthasarathy delves into the intricate world of patents and public policy, hinting at the far-reaching implications of intellectual property on societal and economic domains.
As we navigate the terrain of literary contributions, we encounter fictional works that, albeit not rooted in empirical evidence, offer imaginative perspectives on invention and finance. Jules Verne's "Twenty Thousand Leagues Under the Sea" conjures visions of futuristic inventions, sparking whimsical contemplations on the fusion of creativity and value creation. Michael Crichton's "Prey" draws readers into a thrilling narrative where scientific innovation takes center stage, igniting speculative musings on the unforeseen consequences of technological advancements.
In the realm of popular culture, the animated series "DuckTales" and its adventurous escapades echo the spirit of exploration and discovery, evoking parallels to our own scholarly journey. Meanwhile, the wily exploits of "The Pink Panther" invite lighthearted reflections on the unpredictable nature of financial markets, reminding us that unraveling the mysteries of investment may require a dose of playful cunning.
Armed with insights from scholarly endeavors, literary imaginings, and whimsical forays into popular culture, we embark on our own inquiry, poised to illuminate the entwined realms of patents and stock prices with a blend of scholarly rigor and a touch, (or perhaps a heavy dollop), of quirk and humor.

[[RESULTS]]
The results of our analysis revealed a strikingly high correlation coefficient of 0.9162755 between patents granted in the United States and the stock price of ONEOK Inc. (OKE) over the period from 2002 to 2020. This correlation coefficient, like a prized gem in a sea of statistics, shone brightly, indicating a notably strong relationship between these two variables.
Furthermore, the calculated r-squared value of 0.8395608 suggested that a substantial portion of the variability in ONEOK's stock price can be explained by the number of patents granted in the United States. It's as if the patents were whispering sweet nothings to ONEOK's stock price, influencing its every move like a conductor guiding an orchestra through a musical masterpiece.
The p-value of less than 0.01 provided strong evidence to reject the null hypothesis of no relationship between patents and ONEOK's stock price, further solidifying the notion that there exists a meaningful association between these two seemingly disparate entities. The probability of such a strong relationship occurring by mere chance is so low that one might say it's rarer than a unicorn sighting in a statisticians' convention.
In Figure 1, the scatterplot visually captures the robust connection between patents granted in the United States and ONEOK's stock price, plotting a course through the tumultuous sea of market dynamics and intellectual property with the finesse of a seasoned sailor navigating treacherous waters. The points on the scatterplot form a pattern so clear that even the most skeptical observer would have to admit that something fishy, or perhaps patent-y, is afoot.
These results shed light on the intriguing nexus between patents and stock prices, prompting us to ponder whether patents are not just a reflection of innovation, but also a harbinger of financial success. It seems as though the unmistakable bond between these two variables is as undeniable as the force of gravity - or perhaps as mystifying as the allure of a research puzzle just waiting to be solved.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[DISCUSSION]]

ChatGPT:

[[DISCUSSION]]

The remarkable correlation coefficient and statistically significant p-value observed in our study provide compelling support for the notion that patents and ONEOK's stock price are intertwined in a complex and meaningful relationship. These findings echo the scholarly work of Smith et al. (2010) and Doe and Jones (2015), paving the way for a deeper understanding of the symbiotic dance between innovative creativity and market valuation. It's as if the financial markets are beckoning to the inventive prowess of patent holders, whispering sweet promises of economic prosperity, much like a siren's call to sailors lost in a sea of financial speculation.

The insights garnered from "The Innovators" by Walter Isaacson and "Patent Politics" by Shobita Parthasarathy take on a newfound significance in light of our results, suggesting that the influence of patents extends beyond the realm of individual firms, weaving a rich tapestry of innovation and economic impact. Furthermore, the fictional works of Jules Verne and Michael Crichton, while whimsical in nature, spark contemplations on the fusion of creativity and value creation, mirroring the undeniable link we have uncovered between patents and stock prices. It's almost as if the characters in these fictional works are maneuvering through a world shaped by the very fabric of our empirical findings, navigating a landscape where invention and financial markets converge in unexpected ways.

Drawing parallels to "DuckTales," our scholarly journey, much like the adventurous escapades of Scrooge McDuck and his nephews, has unraveled the enigmatic treasures hidden within the patent landscape and stock market territory. And while "The Pink Panther" may be emblematic of cunning and mystery, our findings have demystified at least one enigma, demonstrating that patents may indeed hold the key to unlocking the secrets of stock market success. It seems even the wiliest of characters cannot resist the allure of empirical evidence and statistical significance.

In conclusion, the results of our study compel us to reconsider the conventional wisdom surrounding patents and stock prices, inviting us to view these phenomena not as disparate entities, but as interconnected players in a grand symphony of innovation and economic prosperity. It's as if the forces of supply and demand in the stock market are held in delicate balance by the threads of invention and creative genius, harmonizing in a melodic union where patents and stock prices dance to the rhythm of market dynamics, much like a scientific principle unfurling its elegant laws before our very eyes.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a goofy academic researcher writing an academic paper. You follow the rules, but you throw out convention regularly to make jokes and funny asides.You draft the discussion section of goofy academic research papers that sounds like it belongs based on the title and abstract provided.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up a short conclusion of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Patents granted in the US and ONEOK's stock price (OKE). Make it seem dry like academic research paper, but with lots of subtle hidden offhand remarks, jokes, goofy observations, and puns. Sneak in some jokes and clever puns about science, research, statistics, and the variables.

Limit your response to 300 tokens. At the very end, assert that no more research is needed in this area.

Here are the title, abstract, introduction, and results sections.
[[TITLE]]
"Patenting and ONEOK's Stock: A Rhyme About Prime Time?"

[[ABSTRACT]]
This study investigates the connection between patents granted in the United States and the stock price of ONEOK Inc. (OKE) using data from the United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv) for the period of 2002 to 2020. The analysis reveals a remarkably high correlation coefficient of 0.9162755 and a statistically significant p-value of less than 0.01, suggesting a strong relationship between the two variables. In this paper, we delve into the empirical evidence of this causal link, exploring how patents, with their innovative flair and creative spark, may indeed fuel stock market movements, lighting the way for investors seeking to strike it rich. We discuss the potential implications of these findings, considering whether patents, like hidden treasures in a sea of ideas, might hold the key to unlocking stock market success. So buckle up, dear readers, and get ready for a rollercoaster ride through the patent landscape and stock market territory, where the only thing certain is the uncertainty of the future!

[[INTRDUCTION]]
The intersection of intellectual property and financial markets has long been a topic of interest for researchers and investors alike. In this paper, we embark on a quest to unravel the enigmatic relationship between patents granted in the United States and the stock price of ONEOK Inc. (OKE). As we navigate this terrain, we cannot help but marvel at the prospect of unearthing the hidden patterns and connections that lie beneath the surface, much like intrepid explorers venturing into uncharted territories armed with nothing but a spreadsheet and a sense of curiosity.
The allure of patents, with their promise of exclusivity and innovation, mirrors the intrigue of a scientific puzzle waiting to be pieced together, much like assembling a jigsaw puzzle where the missing piece is the elusive key to outrageous profits. On the other hand, the stock market dances to a tune that sounds suspiciously like a blend of stochastic processes and investor psychology. It's a waltz that leaves even the most seasoned analysts feeling like they're in dire need of a refresher dance lesson or perhaps a quick game of scientific roulette.
Let's set the stage with a bit of scientific banter: if a patent falls in the USPTO database and no one invests in the corresponding company, does it make a sound? As we embark on this scholarly escapade, we must approach the subject matter with the appropriate mix of seriousness and whimsy, much like a high-stakes board game that brings out the competitive spirit in even the most mild-mannered academics.
The correlation coefficient, our trusty guide in this voyage of discovery, gleams like a beacon in the darkness, hinting at a relationship so tantalizingly intimate that it virtually whispers "buy low, sell high" in our ears. With a statistically significant p-value that practically winks at us from across the spreadsheet, the evidence of this connection is as clear as a scientist's safety goggles - and just as essential for navigating the treacherous waters of the stock market.
As we delve further into the labyrinth of data and statistics, we are reminded of the timeless wisdom of scientific inquiry: correlation does not imply causation, but it sure does make for a captivating story. So, dear reader, fasten your seatbelts and prepare for a pulse-quickening expedition through the entwined realms of patents and stock prices, where the only thing more unpredictable than the results is the precarious balance of science and speculation.

[[RESULTS]]
The results of our analysis revealed a strikingly high correlation coefficient of 0.9162755 between patents granted in the United States and the stock price of ONEOK Inc. (OKE) over the period from 2002 to 2020. This correlation coefficient, like a prized gem in a sea of statistics, shone brightly, indicating a notably strong relationship between these two variables.
Furthermore, the calculated r-squared value of 0.8395608 suggested that a substantial portion of the variability in ONEOK's stock price can be explained by the number of patents granted in the United States. It's as if the patents were whispering sweet nothings to ONEOK's stock price, influencing its every move like a conductor guiding an orchestra through a musical masterpiece.
The p-value of less than 0.01 provided strong evidence to reject the null hypothesis of no relationship between patents and ONEOK's stock price, further solidifying the notion that there exists a meaningful association between these two seemingly disparate entities. The probability of such a strong relationship occurring by mere chance is so low that one might say it's rarer than a unicorn sighting in a statisticians' convention.
In Figure 1, the scatterplot visually captures the robust connection between patents granted in the United States and ONEOK's stock price, plotting a course through the tumultuous sea of market dynamics and intellectual property with the finesse of a seasoned sailor navigating treacherous waters. The points on the scatterplot form a pattern so clear that even the most skeptical observer would have to admit that something fishy, or perhaps patent-y, is afoot.
These results shed light on the intriguing nexus between patents and stock prices, prompting us to ponder whether patents are not just a reflection of innovation, but also a harbinger of financial success. It seems as though the unmistakable bond between these two variables is as undeniable as the force of gravity - or perhaps as mystifying as the allure of a research puzzle just waiting to be solved.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[CONCLUSION]]

ChatGPT:

[[CONCLUSION]]

In conclusion, our findings paint a vivid picture of the entwined fate of patents granted in the United States and the stock price of ONEOK Inc. (OKE). The remarkably high correlation coefficient of 0.9162755 and the statistically significant p-value of less than 0.01 leave little room for doubt about the existence of a strong relationship between these two variables. It's as if patents and stock prices are engaged in an intricate dance, each step influencing the other in a mesmerizing display of financial and intellectual prowess.

The r-squared value of 0.8395608 further reinforces the notion that a substantial portion of ONEOK's stock price variability can be accounted for by the number of patents granted in the United States. It's almost like the stock price is saying, "Show me the patents, and I'll show you the money!"

The scatterplot in Figure 1 showcases this connection with such clarity that even the most ardent skeptic would have to admit that there's something special going on. It's as if the data points are winking at us, whispering secrets of a relationship so intimate, it could make even the most cynical economist blush.

In the grand tradition of scientific inquiry, our study raises more questions than it answers. Are patents truly the secret ingredient in the recipe for stock market success? Are they the magic beans that can lead investors to their own version of a financial beanstalk? It's a mystery worth pondering, much like a riddle wrapped in an enigma, surrounded by talkative data points.

With these compelling results, it is safe to say that further exploration in this area may not yield substantial additional insights, for we've uncovered a correlation so strong, it's practically jumping up and down, waving a flag and shouting, "I'm right here!" It appears that the relationship between patents and ONEOK's stock price is as solid as a rock, or perhaps as fluid as the financial markets themselves. It's time to put this correlation to bed and let it rest in the annals of statistical absurdity.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide fictional names of academic journals. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide the name of a funny but plausible sounding research, scientific, or academic journal that would publish a paper entited Patenting and ONEOK's Stock: A Rhyme About Prime Time?. Respond only with the name of a fictional academic journal.

ChatGPT:

The Journal of Quirky Financial Analysis

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide fictional names of nonprofit research organizations and associations. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide the name of a funny but plausible sounding nonprofit, academic, or scientific association or organization that would sponsor research that resulted in a paper entited Patenting and ONEOK's Stock: A Rhyme About Prime Time?. Respond only with the name of a fictional organization.

ChatGPT:

The Institute for Whimsical Economic Studies

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide potential search keywords separated by commas. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide potential search keywords for a paper titled Patenting and ONEOK's Stock: A Rhyme About Prime Time? with an abstract of This study investigates the connection between patents granted in the United States and the stock price of ONEOK Inc. (OKE) using data from the United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv) for the period of 2002 to 2020. The analysis reveals a remarkably high correlation coefficient of 0.9162755 and a statistically significant p-value of less than 0.01, suggesting a strong relationship between the two variables. In this paper, we delve into the empirical evidence of this causal link, exploring how patents, with their innovative flair and creative spark, may indeed fuel stock market movements, lighting the way for investors seeking to strike it rich. We discuss the potential implications of these findings, considering whether patents, like hidden treasures in a sea of ideas, might hold the key to unlocking stock market success. So buckle up, dear readers, and get ready for a rollercoaster ride through the patent landscape and stock market territory, where the only thing certain is the uncertainty of the future!

ChatGPT:

patents, USPTO, stock price, correlation coefficient, empirical evidence, causal link, stock market movements, investors, implications, hidden treasures, sea of ideas, unlocking stock market success

*There is a bunch of Python happening behind the scenes to turn this prompt sequence into a PDF.

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Data details

Patents granted in the US
Detailed data title: Total number of patents granted in the US
Source: USPTO
See what else correlates with Patents granted in the US

ONEOK's stock price (OKE)
Detailed data title: Opening price of ONEOK (OKE) on the first trading day of the year
Source: LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv)
Additional Info: ^{See full details} Via Microsoft Excel Stockhistory function

See what else correlates with ONEOK's stock price (OKE)

Correlation r = 0.9162755 (Pearson correlation coefficient)
Correlation is a measure of how much the variables move together. If it is 0.99, when one goes up the other goes up. If it is 0.02, the connection is very weak or non-existent. If it is -0.99, then when one goes up the other goes down. If it is 1.00, you probably messed up your correlation function.

r² = 0.8395608 (Coefficient of determination)
This means 84% of the change in the one variable (i.e., ONEOK's stock price (OKE)) is predictable based on the change in the other (i.e., Patents granted in the US) over the 19 years from 2002 through 2020.

p < 0.01, which is statistically significant(Null hypothesis significance test)
The p-value is 3.6E-8.^Show 0.0000000362386153679282130000
The p-value is a measure of how probable it is that we would randomly find a result this extreme.^Note More specifically the p-value is a measure of how probable it is that we would randomly find a result this extreme if we had only tested one pair of variables one time.

But I am a p-villain. I absolutely did not test only one pair of variables one time. I correlated hundreds of millions of pairs of variables. I threw boatloads of data into an industrial-sized blender to find this correlation.

Who is going to stop me? p-value reporting doesn't require me to report how many calculations I had to go through in order to find a low p-value!
On average, you will find a correaltion as strong as 0.92 in 3.6E-6% of random cases. Said differently, if you correlated 27,594,873 random variables^Note You don't actually need 27 million variables to find a correlation like this one. I don't have that many variables in my database. You can also correlate variables that are not independent. I do this a lot.

p-value calculations are useful for understanding the probability of a result happening by chance. They are most useful when used to highlight the risk of a fluke outcome. For example, if you calculate a p-value of 0.30, the risk that the result is a fluke is high. It is good to know that! But there are lots of ways to get a p-value of less than 0.01, as evidenced by this project.

In this particular case, the values are so extreme as to be meaningless. That's why no one reports p-values with specificity after they drop below 0.01.

Just to be clear: I'm being completely transparent about the calculations. There is no math trickery. This is just how statistics shakes out when you calculate hundreds of millions of random correlations.
with the same 18 degrees of freedom, ^Note Degrees of freedom is a measure of how many free components we are testing. In this case it is 18 because we have two variables measured over a period of 19 years. It's just the number of years minus ( the number of variables minus one ), which in this case simplifies to the number of years minus one.
you would randomly expect to find a correlation as strong as this one.

[ 0.79, 0.97 ] 95% correlation confidence interval (using the Fisher z-transformation)
^{Read more about the confidence interval} The confidence interval is an estimate the range of the value of the correlation coefficient, using the correlation itself as an input. The values are meant to be the low and high end of the correlation coefficient with 95% confidence.

This one is a bit more complciated than the other calculations, but I include it because many people have been pushing for confidence intervals instead of p-value calculations (for example: NEJM. However, if you are dredging data, you can reliably find yourself in the 5%. That's my goal!

All values for the years included above: ^Note If I were being very sneaky, I could trim years from the beginning or end of the datasets to increase the correlation on some pairs of variables. I don't do that because there are already plenty of correlations in my database without monkeying with the years.

Still, sometimes one of the variables has more years of data available than the other. This page only shows the overlapping years. To see all the years, click on "See what else correlates with..." link above.

	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020
Patents granted in the US (Patents granted)	184375	187012	181299	157718	196405	182899	185224	191927	244341	247713	276788	302948	326032	325980	333583	351403	339992	391103	388900
ONEOK's stock price (OKE) (Stock price)	7.87	8.43	9.7	12.48	11.76	18.98	19.56	12.79	19.65	24.44	38.52	37.94	54.41	49.9	24.66	58.14	53.76	53.05	75.92

Why this works

Data dredging: I have 25,153 variables in my database. I compare all these variables against each other to find ones that randomly match up. That's 632,673,409 correlation calculations! This is called “data dredging.” Instead of starting with a hypothesis and testing it, I instead abused the data to see what correlations shake out. It’s a dangerous way to go about analysis, because any sufficiently large dataset will yield strong correlations completely at random.
Lack of causal connection: There is probably^Note Because these pages are automatically generated, it's possible that the two variables you are viewing are in fact causually related. I take steps to prevent the obvious ones from showing on the site (I don't let data about the weather in one city correlate with the weather in a neighboring city, for example), but sometimes they still pop up. If they are related, cool! You found a loophole.
no direct connection between these variables, despite what the AI says above. This is exacerbated by the fact that I used "Years" as the base variable. Lots of things happen in a year that are not related to each other! Most studies would use something like "one person" in stead of "one year" to be the "thing" studied.
Observations not independent: For many variables, sequential years are not independent of each other. If a population of people is continuously doing something every day, there is no reason to think they would suddenly change how they are doing that thing on January 1. A simple^Note Personally I don't find any p-value calculation to be 'simple,' but you know what I mean.
p-value calculation does not take this into account, so mathematically it appears less probable than it really is.

Try it yourself

You can calculate the values on this page on your own! Try running the Python code to see the calculation results. ^{Show the steps to do this.} Step 1: Download and install Python on your computer.

Step 2: Open a plaintext editor like Notepad and paste the code below into it.

Step 3: Save the file as "calculate_correlation.py" in a place you will remember, like your desktop. Copy the file location to your clipboard. On Windows, you can right-click the file and click "Properties," and then copy what comes after "Location:" As an example, on my computer the location is "C:\Users\tyler\Desktop"

Step 4: Open a command line window. For example, by pressing start and typing "cmd" and them pressing enter.

Step 5: Install the required modules by typing "pip install numpy", then pressing enter, then typing "pip install scipy", then pressing enter.

Step 6: Navigate to the location where you saved the Python file by using the "cd" command. For example, I would type "cd C:\Users\tyler\Desktop" and push enter.

Step 7: Run the Python script by typing "python calculate_correlation.py"

If you run into any issues, I suggest asking ChatGPT to walk you through installing Python and running the code below on your system. Try this question:

"Walk me through installing Python on my computer to run a script that uses scipy and numpy. Go step-by-step and ask me to confirm before moving on. Start by asking me questions about my operating system so that you know how to proceed. Assume I want the simplest installation with the latest version of Python and that I do not currently have any of the necessary elements installed. Remember to only give me one step per response and confirm I have done it before proceeding."

# These modules make it easier to perform the calculation
import numpy as np
from scipy import stats

# We'll define a function that we can call to return the correlation calculations
def calculate_correlation(array1, array2):

    # Calculate Pearson correlation coefficient and p-value
    correlation, p_value = stats.pearsonr(array1, array2)

    # Calculate R-squared as the square of the correlation coefficient
    r_squared = correlation**2

    return correlation, r_squared, p_value

# These are the arrays for the variables shown on this page, but you can modify them to be any two sets of numbers
array_1 = np.array([184375,187012,181299,157718,196405,182899,185224,191927,244341,247713,276788,302948,326032,325980,333583,351403,339992,391103,388900,])
array_2 = np.array([7.87,8.43,9.7,12.48,11.76,18.98,19.56,12.79,19.65,24.44,38.52,37.94,54.41,49.9,24.66,58.14,53.76,53.05,75.92,])
array_1_name = "Patents granted in the US"
array_2_name = "ONEOK's stock price (OKE)"

# Perform the calculation
print(f"Calculating the correlation between {array_1_name} and {array_2_name}...")
correlation, r_squared, p_value = calculate_correlation(array_1, array_2)

# Print the results
print("Correlation Coefficient:", correlation)
print("R-squared:", r_squared)
print("P-value:", p_value)

Reuseable content

You may re-use the images on this page for any purpose, even commercial purposes, without asking for permission. The only requirement is that you attribute Tyler Vigen. ^Note Attribution can take many different forms. If you leave the "tylervigen.com" link in the image, that satisfies it just fine. If you remove it and move it to a footnote, that's fine too. You can also just write "Charts courtesy of Tyler Vigen" at the bottom of an article.

You do not need to attribute "the spurious correlations website," and you don't even need to link here if you don't want to. I don't gain anything from pageviews. There are no ads on this site, there is nothing for sale, and I am not for hire.

For the record, I am just one person. Tyler Vigen, he/him/his. I do have degrees, but they should not go after my name unless you want to annoy my wife. If that is your goal, then go ahead and cite me as "Tyler Vigen, A.A. A.A.S. B.A. J.D." Otherwise it is just "Tyler Vigen."

When spoken, my last name is pronounced "vegan," like I don't eat meat.

Full license details.
For more on re-use permissions, or to get a signed release form, see tylervigen.com/permission.

Download images for these variables:

High resolution line chart ^Note The image linked here is a Scalable Vector Graphic (SVG). It is the highest resolution that is possible to achieve. It scales up beyond the size of the observable universe without pixelating. You do not need to email me asking if I have a higher resolution image. I do not. The physical limitations of our universe prevent me from providing you with an image that is any higher resolution than this one.

If you insert it into a PowerPoint presentation (a tool well-known for managing things that are the scale of the universe), you can right-click > "Ungroup" or "Create Shape" and then edit the lines and text directly. You can also change the colors this way.

Alternatively you can use a tool like Inkscape.
High resolution line chart, optimized for mobile
Alternative high resolution line chart
Scatterplot
Portable line chart (png)
Portable line chart (png), optimized for mobile
Line chart for only Patents granted in the US
Line chart for only ONEOK's stock price (OKE)
AI-generated correlation image
The spurious research paper: Patenting and ONEOK's Stock: A Rhyme About Prime Time?

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Correlation ID: 2279 · Black Variable ID: 848 · Red Variable ID: 1837


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