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Spurious correlation #2,087 · View random

A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is Milk consumption and the second variable is Arson in Idaho.  The chart goes from 2001 to 2021, and the two variables track closely in value over that time. Small Image
Download png
, svg

AI explanation

As people drank less milk, their calcium levels dropped, leading to decreased bone density. With weaker bones, individuals found it increasingly difficult to strike a match with the same level of force as before, inadvertently lowering the incidence of arson in Idaho.

Model: dalle-3
Prompt: Generate an image of a scenic Idaho field with a group of people sitting on a checkered blanket, smiling and raising tall glasses of cold milk. In the background, show firefighters in their gear, training to control a small fire. The artwork should have a parallax effect, giving depth to the field and creating a sense of immersion for the viewer. The depiction should include only scenes, people, and objects, it should not include text or speech bubbles.
This image generation prompt was also generated by AI, using the following sequence:

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You select one of a few potential scene descriptors that seems to go along with the variables described. You respond only with the scene descriptions provided and say nothing else.
User prompt: Here are two variables: Milk consumption and Arson in Idaho. Given these, which of the following image style descriptions seems most appropriate? Pick the one that seems to be related to one of the variables at hand. Please respond with only one of the following potential descriptions: Parallax art Voxel art Cyber folk Cybernetic art Low poly
ChatGPT: Parallax art

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You describe simple visual scenes that depict the two variables stated. You combine both variables into one scene.
User prompt: Please describe a visual scene that prominently depicts both Milk consumption and Arson in Idaho together. Keep the description simple.
ChatGPT: A group of people enjoying tall glasses of cold milk at a picnic in a green Idaho field, while in the distance, firefighters battle a small controlled fire in a field for a training exercise.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You write and improve image generation prompts for DALLE-3. You maintain the same subjects, but enhance the visuals.
User prompt: Please respond with an image generation prompt that would be likely to create an interesting visual using DALLE-3, using the following style: [ Parallax art ] and depicting this scene: A group of people enjoying tall glasses of cold milk at a picnic in a green Idaho field, while in the distance, firefighters battle a small controlled fire in a field for a training exercise. Keep the visual depiction simple. Do not include any words or speech bubbles.
ChatGPT: Generate an image of a scenic Idaho field with a group of people sitting on a checkered blanket, smiling and raising tall glasses of cold milk. In the background, show firefighters in their gear, training to control a small fire. The artwork should have a parallax effect, giving depth to the field and creating a sense of immersion for the viewer.

*Variations in the User Prompts from chart to chart are just the result of random number generation in Python. I wrote a few arrays of various styles and methods to ask questions to change up the results. Every time this site writes an explanation or generates an image, the script picks from each at random.

I sequence the requests into multiple prompts because I find GPT 3.5 to perform much better with short, well-managed contexts. Thus, I track the context directly in Python and only ask ChatGPT targeted questions.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106 (fine-tuned)
System prompt: You provide humorous responses in the form of plausible sounding explanations for correlations. You assume the correlation is causative for the purpose of the explanation even if it is ridiculous. You do not chat with the user, you only reply with the causal connection explanation and nothing else.
User prompt: Please make up a funny explanation for how a decrease in Milk consumption caused Arson in Idaho to decrease. Make it feel plausible.

AI academic paper

(Because p < 0.01)
Moo-ving Evidence: Exploring the Dairy-fy Connection Between Milk Consumption and Arson in Idaho

International Journal of Bovine Studies

Jan 2024

Reminder: This paper is AI-generated. Not real!
Quick note: This sequence is long and repetitive. That's how the prompt engineering works for this one. I manage the output in Python to format it into this PDF.




Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a goofy academic researcher writing an academic paper. You follow the rules, but you throw out convention regularly to make jokes and funny asides.You write titles and abstracts of goofy academic research papers.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, and add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please draft the title and abstract of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Milk consumption and Arson in Idaho. You can't resist a good dad joke. Add a relevant dad joke related to the content every couple of sentences.

Make the title a clever pun.

Your research team used data from USDA and FBI Criminal Justice Information Services to assess this nagging question. You found a correlation coefficient of 0.9223425 and p < 0.01 for 2001 to 2021.

Please respond in this format (replace "Lorem ipsum dolor sit" with your title and abstract)

[[TITLE]]
Lorem ipsum dolor sit

[[ABSTRACT]]
Lorem ipsum dolor sit



ChatGPT:
[[TITLE]]
"Moo-ving Evidence: Exploring the Dairy-fy Connection Between Milk Consumption and Arson in Idaho"

[[ABSTRACT]]
There has been an udderly tantalizing hypothesis circulating in the dairy industry and law enforcement circles regarding the potential link between milk consumption and arson incidents in the state of Idaho. This study endeavored to churn through the data and shed light on this uncommon association.

By delving into a comprehensive dataset obtained from the USDA and the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services, our research team meticulously analyzed milk consumption patterns and arson occurrences in Idaho from 2001 to 2021. The findings revealed a rather surprising correlation coefficient of 0.9223425 with a p-value of less than 0.01, indicating a strong statistical relationship between the two variables.

The data presented in this research suggests that as milk consumption in Idaho increased, so did the number of arson incidents. This intriguing correlation may raise eyebrows, but it is important to approach the conclusions with caution, as correlation does not necessarily imply causation. Nevertheless, it would be remiss to ignore this compelling link, especially when the stakes are so high.

As the saying goes, "Don't cry over spilled milk, unless it's spilled on a crime scene." This study's findings pose a dairy-e dilemma and call for further investigation into the potential mechanisms behind this bizarre association. It is our hope that this research serves as a catalyst for future studies to churn through the complexities of this unlikely relationship and provide a clearer understanding of the underlying factors at play.


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a goofy academic researcher writing an academic paper. You follow the rules, but you throw out convention regularly to make jokes and funny asides.You draft the introduction section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the introduction section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Milk consumption and Arson in Idaho. You can't resist a good dad joke. Add a relevant dad joke related to the content every couple of sentences. Stay serious and dry most of the time, but then occasionally let your wit shine through.

Here is the title and abstract of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
"Moo-ving Evidence: Exploring the Dairy-fy Connection Between Milk Consumption and Arson in Idaho"

[[ABSTRACT]]
There has been an udderly tantalizing hypothesis circulating in the dairy industry and law enforcement circles regarding the potential link between milk consumption and arson incidents in the state of Idaho. This study endeavored to churn through the data and shed light on this uncommon association.

By delving into a comprehensive dataset obtained from the USDA and the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services, our research team meticulously analyzed milk consumption patterns and arson occurrences in Idaho from 2001 to 2021. The findings revealed a rather surprising correlation coefficient of 0.9223425 with a p-value of less than 0.01, indicating a strong statistical relationship between the two variables.

The data presented in this research suggests that as milk consumption in Idaho increased, so did the number of arson incidents. This intriguing correlation may raise eyebrows, but it is important to approach the conclusions with caution, as correlation does not necessarily imply causation. Nevertheless, it would be remiss to ignore this compelling link, especially when the stakes are so high.

As the saying goes, "Don't cry over spilled milk, unless it's spilled on a crime scene." This study's findings pose a dairy-e dilemma and call for further investigation into the potential mechanisms behind this bizarre association. It is our hope that this research serves as a catalyst for future studies to churn through the complexities of this unlikely relationship and provide a clearer understanding of the underlying factors at play.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[INTRODUCTION]]



ChatGPT:
[[INTRODUCTION]]

The connection between milk consumption and criminal behavior may seem like a topic best left to the musings of a comedian rather than a serious academic inquiry. However, the correlation between the two has caught the attention of researchers and law enforcement agencies alike, raising the question: Could there be a dairy-fy connection between milk and arson in the state of Idaho?

As we delve into this utterly bizarre topic, it's important to keep in mind that correlation is not causation, despite what some may moove to believe. Nevertheless, the statistical relationship uncovered in our study beckons further investigation into the enigmatic intersection of dairy products and criminal activity.

Let's milk this topic for all it's worth, shall we?


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a goofy academic researcher writing an academic paper. You follow the rules, but you throw out convention regularly to make jokes and funny asides.You draft a literature review section of an academic research paper, that starts out dry for the first few sentences but then becomes hilarious and goofy.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up a literature review section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Milk consumption and Arson in Idaho. You can't resist a good dad joke. Add a relevant dad joke related to the content every couple of sentences.

Speak in the present tense for this section (the authors find...), as is common in academic research paper literature reviews. Name the sources in a format similar to this: In "Book," the authors find lorem and ipsum.

Make up the lorem and ipsum part, but make it sound related to the topic at hand.

Start by naming serious-sounding studies by authors like Smith, Doe, and Jones - but then quickly devolve. Name some real non-fiction books that would be related to the topic. Then name some real fiction books that sound like they could be related. Then name a couple popular internet memes that are related to one of the topics.

Here is the title and abstract of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
"Moo-ving Evidence: Exploring the Dairy-fy Connection Between Milk Consumption and Arson in Idaho"

[[ABSTRACT]]
There has been an udderly tantalizing hypothesis circulating in the dairy industry and law enforcement circles regarding the potential link between milk consumption and arson incidents in the state of Idaho. This study endeavored to churn through the data and shed light on this uncommon association.

By delving into a comprehensive dataset obtained from the USDA and the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services, our research team meticulously analyzed milk consumption patterns and arson occurrences in Idaho from 2001 to 2021. The findings revealed a rather surprising correlation coefficient of 0.9223425 with a p-value of less than 0.01, indicating a strong statistical relationship between the two variables.

The data presented in this research suggests that as milk consumption in Idaho increased, so did the number of arson incidents. This intriguing correlation may raise eyebrows, but it is important to approach the conclusions with caution, as correlation does not necessarily imply causation. Nevertheless, it would be remiss to ignore this compelling link, especially when the stakes are so high.

As the saying goes, "Don't cry over spilled milk, unless it's spilled on a crime scene." This study's findings pose a dairy-e dilemma and call for further investigation into the potential mechanisms behind this bizarre association. It is our hope that this research serves as a catalyst for future studies to churn through the complexities of this unlikely relationship and provide a clearer understanding of the underlying factors at play.

-------

And here is the introduction section that led to this literature review:
[[INTRODUCTION]]
The connection between milk consumption and criminal behavior may seem like a topic best left to the musings of a comedian rather than a serious academic inquiry. However, the correlation between the two has caught the attention of researchers and law enforcement agencies alike, raising the question: Could there be a dairy-fy connection between milk and arson in the state of Idaho?
As we delve into this utterly bizarre topic, it's important to keep in mind that correlation is not causation, despite what some may moove to believe. Nevertheless, the statistical relationship uncovered in our study beckons further investigation into the enigmatic intersection of dairy products and criminal activity.
Let's milk this topic for all it's worth, shall we?

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]



ChatGPT:
[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]

The potential link between milk consumption and arson incidents in Idaho has attracted a flurry of scholarly attention in recent years. In "Smith et al.'s study," the authors find a notable positive correlation between the per capita consumption of milk and the number of arson cases reported in rural areas of the state. This unexpected connection has led to a proliferation of research attempting to unravel the underlying mechanisms governing this dairy-fy relationship.

As researchers delve deeper into this topic, it becomes clear that the interplay between dairy products and criminal activity is no laughing matter. Or is it? In "Doe's investigation," the authors delve into the historical archives to uncover anecdotal evidence of milk-related misdemeanors in 19th-century Idaho, hinting at a longstanding but obscure relationship between dairy and delinquency.

But wait, there's more! In "Jones's comprehensive analysis," the authors present a comprehensive review of dairy-centric crimes across various states, shedding light on the peculiar patterns observed in Idaho. These studies paint a complex picture of the dairy-crime nexus, prompting the research community to churn through the data with renewed vigor.

The literature also extends beyond academic research, venturing into the realm of non-fiction and fiction alike. Books such as "The Big Milk Conspiracy" and "Got Milk? Got Matches: A Dairy Arson Mystery" have captured the whimsical imagination of readers, blurring the lines between dairy products and detective work in unexpected ways.

On a more lighthearted note, popular internet memes such as the "Milkman Arsonist" and "Dairy Delinquency Dilemmas" have emerged, providing a comical take on the perplexing association between milk consumption and arson. These memes, while amusing, underscore the public's fascination with the dairy-crime correlation and its implications for societal discourse.

In the immortal words of Shakespeare's Hamlet (slightly modified for effect), "To milk or not to milk, that is the question – whether 'tis smarter to suffer the crimes and fires of outrageous fortune, or to consume dairy against a sea of arson." Ah, the dairy dilemma persists, beckoning researchers to unravel its creamy mysteries.

As we navigate this curious blend of scholarly inquiry and comedic intrigue, it is essential to approach this topic with academic rigor, albeit amidst a backdrop of dairy-related puns and whimsy. After all, when it comes to unraveling the enigma of milk and arson in Idaho, there's no use crying over spilled milk – unless, of course, that spilled milk happens to be at the scene of a crime.


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a goofy academic researcher writing an academic paper. You follow the rules, but you throw out convention regularly to make jokes and funny asides.You draft the methodology section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the methodology section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Milk consumption and Arson in Idaho. You can't resist a good dad joke. Add a relevant dad joke related to the content every couple of sentences. Stay serious and dry most of the time, but then occasionally let your wit shine through.

Your research team collected data from all across the internet, but mostly just used information from USDA and FBI Criminal Justice Information Services . You used data from 2001 to 2021

Make up the research methods you don't know. Make them a bit goofy and convoluted.

Here is the title, abstract, and introduction of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
"Moo-ving Evidence: Exploring the Dairy-fy Connection Between Milk Consumption and Arson in Idaho"

[[ABSTRACT]]
There has been an udderly tantalizing hypothesis circulating in the dairy industry and law enforcement circles regarding the potential link between milk consumption and arson incidents in the state of Idaho. This study endeavored to churn through the data and shed light on this uncommon association.

By delving into a comprehensive dataset obtained from the USDA and the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services, our research team meticulously analyzed milk consumption patterns and arson occurrences in Idaho from 2001 to 2021. The findings revealed a rather surprising correlation coefficient of 0.9223425 with a p-value of less than 0.01, indicating a strong statistical relationship between the two variables.

The data presented in this research suggests that as milk consumption in Idaho increased, so did the number of arson incidents. This intriguing correlation may raise eyebrows, but it is important to approach the conclusions with caution, as correlation does not necessarily imply causation. Nevertheless, it would be remiss to ignore this compelling link, especially when the stakes are so high.

As the saying goes, "Don't cry over spilled milk, unless it's spilled on a crime scene." This study's findings pose a dairy-e dilemma and call for further investigation into the potential mechanisms behind this bizarre association. It is our hope that this research serves as a catalyst for future studies to churn through the complexities of this unlikely relationship and provide a clearer understanding of the underlying factors at play.

[[INTRODUCTION]]
The connection between milk consumption and criminal behavior may seem like a topic best left to the musings of a comedian rather than a serious academic inquiry. However, the correlation between the two has caught the attention of researchers and law enforcement agencies alike, raising the question: Could there be a dairy-fy connection between milk and arson in the state of Idaho?
As we delve into this utterly bizarre topic, it's important to keep in mind that correlation is not causation, despite what some may moove to believe. Nevertheless, the statistical relationship uncovered in our study beckons further investigation into the enigmatic intersection of dairy products and criminal activity.
Let's milk this topic for all it's worth, shall we?

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[METHODOLOGY]]



ChatGPT:

[[METHODOLOGY]]

To wrangle the data necessary to investigate the peculiar link between milk consumption and arson incidents in Idaho, we employed a multi-faceted research approach. First, we moo-ted the idea of utilizing data from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) to obtain comprehensive information on milk consumption patterns across the state. This dairy-ived approach allowed us to milk the USDA database for all relevant data points by region, accounting for factors such as annual milk production, per capita consumption, and distribution channels, among udder considerations.

Once we had milked the USDA data for all it was worth, we turned our attention to acquiring information on arson incidents in Idaho from the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services. This involved sifting through crime statistics, incident reports, and case files, all while trying to avoid any puns related to "holy cow" moments in our research process.

After obtaining the necessary data, we devised a bovine-inspired statistical model to analyze the relationship between milk consumption and arson occurrences. We utilized a Bovine Linear Regression model (BLR), which took into account variables such as gallons of milk consumed, types of dairy products, and various factors influencing arson incidents, including weather patterns, demographic trends, and potential moral bankruptcy in milk drinkers.

To overcome potential confounding variables, we also conducted a series of sensitivity analyses, including a "Counting Cows" technique that involved counting the number of cows in adjacent fields as a control for potential external factors influencing the results. We also developed a "Herd Immunity" test to assess the robustness of our findings under various statistical assumptions.

In an effort to veer away from a curdled research methodology, we also explored other non-conventional approaches, such as a "Milk Carton Lineup" where dairy products were individually questioned about their potential involvement in arson incidents. Regrettably, this approach did not yield actionable results, as the dairy products remained tight-lipped throughout the interrogation process.

Finally, to ensure the rigor of our findings, we consulted with experts in the fields of criminology, dairy science, and veterinary medicine to corroborate our research findings and solicit alternative perspectives on the peculiar association between milk consumption and arson in Idaho.

In the immortal words of William Shakespeare, "All's well that ends milk." With this comprehensive methodology, we aimed to milk every possible avenue of investigation and churn out findings that would shed light on this enigmatic correlation, or at the very least, provide some 'udderly' entertaining insights for future research endeavors.


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a goofy academic researcher writing an academic paper. You follow the rules, but you throw out convention regularly to make jokes and funny asides.You draft the results section of an academic research paper. You speak in the past tense (you found...).
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the results section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Milk consumption and Arson in Idaho. You can't resist a good dad joke. Add a relevant dad joke related to the content every couple of sentences. Stay serious and dry most of the time, but then occasionally let your wit shine through.

Your research team collected data from all across the internet, but mostly just used information from USDA and FBI Criminal Justice Information Services .

For the time period 2001 to 2021, you found a correlation 0.9223425, r-squared of 0.8507157, and p < 0.01.

One figure will be included. The figure (Fig. 1) is a scatterplot showing the strong correlation between the two variables. You don't need to specify where; I will add the figure.

Here is the title and abstract of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
"Moo-ving Evidence: Exploring the Dairy-fy Connection Between Milk Consumption and Arson in Idaho"

[[ABSTRACT]]
There has been an udderly tantalizing hypothesis circulating in the dairy industry and law enforcement circles regarding the potential link between milk consumption and arson incidents in the state of Idaho. This study endeavored to churn through the data and shed light on this uncommon association.

By delving into a comprehensive dataset obtained from the USDA and the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services, our research team meticulously analyzed milk consumption patterns and arson occurrences in Idaho from 2001 to 2021. The findings revealed a rather surprising correlation coefficient of 0.9223425 with a p-value of less than 0.01, indicating a strong statistical relationship between the two variables.

The data presented in this research suggests that as milk consumption in Idaho increased, so did the number of arson incidents. This intriguing correlation may raise eyebrows, but it is important to approach the conclusions with caution, as correlation does not necessarily imply causation. Nevertheless, it would be remiss to ignore this compelling link, especially when the stakes are so high.

As the saying goes, "Don't cry over spilled milk, unless it's spilled on a crime scene." This study's findings pose a dairy-e dilemma and call for further investigation into the potential mechanisms behind this bizarre association. It is our hope that this research serves as a catalyst for future studies to churn through the complexities of this unlikely relationship and provide a clearer understanding of the underlying factors at play.

-------

And here is the methodology section that led to this result:
[[METHODOLOGY]]
The connection between milk consumption and criminal behavior may seem like a topic best left to the musings of a comedian rather than a serious academic inquiry. However, the correlation between the two has caught the attention of researchers and law enforcement agencies alike, raising the question: Could there be a dairy-fy connection between milk and arson in the state of Idaho?
As we delve into this utterly bizarre topic, it's important to keep in mind that correlation is not causation, despite what some may moove to believe. Nevertheless, the statistical relationship uncovered in our study beckons further investigation into the enigmatic intersection of dairy products and criminal activity.
Let's milk this topic for all it's worth, shall we?

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[RESULTS]]



ChatGPT:

[[RESULTS]]

Upon evaluating the extensive dataset from the USDA and the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services, a remarkably high correlation coefficient of 0.9223425 was observed between milk consumption and arson incidents in Idaho. This finding indicates a strong positive relationship between the two variables. The coefficient of determination (r-squared) was calculated to be 0.8507157, suggesting that approximately 85% of the variability in arson incidents can be explained by the variation in milk consumption.

The p-value of less than 0.01 further solidifies the statistical significance of this correlation, providing compelling evidence of the association between milk consumption and arson in Idaho. This significant p-value points to the unlikelihood of observing such a strong association in the absence of a real effect, making it clear that this connection is no mere coincidence.

In Fig. 1, the scatterplot illustrates the striking correlation between milk consumption and arson incidents in Idaho. The data points form a clear upward trend, reaffirming the strong positive relationship between the two variables.

Now, let's milk this pun opportunity - what do you call a cow that sets off fireworks? A moo-let! Just as fireworks spark excitement, our research findings spark a newfound interest in the dairy-arson connection.

The compelling statistical evidence presented in this study warrants further examination into the potential causal mechanisms underlying this surprising relationship, as well as the implications for public safety and dairy industry practices. These findings may seem absurd at first glance, but they undeniably shed light on a curiously captivating association worth exploring further. After all, when it comes to research, it's always better to be too thorough than to cry over spilled milk later.


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a goofy academic researcher writing an academic paper. You follow the rules, but you throw out convention regularly to make jokes and funny asides.You draft the discussion section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the discussion section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Milk consumption and Arson in Idaho. You can't resist a good dad joke. Add a relevant dad joke related to the content every couple of sentences. Stay serious and dry most of the time, but then occasionally let your wit shine through.

Limit your response to 500 tokens.

Here are the title, abstract, literature review, and results sections. Please harken back to 1-2 of the goofy items in the literature review, but pretend to take them completely seriously. Discuss how your results supported the prior research.

Do not write a conclusion. I will add a conclusion after this.

[[TITLE]]
"Moo-ving Evidence: Exploring the Dairy-fy Connection Between Milk Consumption and Arson in Idaho"

[[ABSTRACT]]
There has been an udderly tantalizing hypothesis circulating in the dairy industry and law enforcement circles regarding the potential link between milk consumption and arson incidents in the state of Idaho. This study endeavored to churn through the data and shed light on this uncommon association.

By delving into a comprehensive dataset obtained from the USDA and the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services, our research team meticulously analyzed milk consumption patterns and arson occurrences in Idaho from 2001 to 2021. The findings revealed a rather surprising correlation coefficient of 0.9223425 with a p-value of less than 0.01, indicating a strong statistical relationship between the two variables.

The data presented in this research suggests that as milk consumption in Idaho increased, so did the number of arson incidents. This intriguing correlation may raise eyebrows, but it is important to approach the conclusions with caution, as correlation does not necessarily imply causation. Nevertheless, it would be remiss to ignore this compelling link, especially when the stakes are so high.

As the saying goes, "Don't cry over spilled milk, unless it's spilled on a crime scene." This study's findings pose a dairy-e dilemma and call for further investigation into the potential mechanisms behind this bizarre association. It is our hope that this research serves as a catalyst for future studies to churn through the complexities of this unlikely relationship and provide a clearer understanding of the underlying factors at play.

[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]
The potential link between milk consumption and arson incidents in Idaho has attracted a flurry of scholarly attention in recent years. In "Smith et al.'s study," the authors find a notable positive correlation between the per capita consumption of milk and the number of arson cases reported in rural areas of the state. This unexpected connection has led to a proliferation of research attempting to unravel the underlying mechanisms governing this dairy-fy relationship.
As researchers delve deeper into this topic, it becomes clear that the interplay between dairy products and criminal activity is no laughing matter. Or is it? In "Doe's investigation," the authors delve into the historical archives to uncover anecdotal evidence of milk-related misdemeanors in 19th-century Idaho, hinting at a longstanding but obscure relationship between dairy and delinquency.
But wait, there's more! In "Jones's comprehensive analysis," the authors present a comprehensive review of dairy-centric crimes across various states, shedding light on the peculiar patterns observed in Idaho. These studies paint a complex picture of the dairy-crime nexus, prompting the research community to churn through the data with renewed vigor.
The literature also extends beyond academic research, venturing into the realm of non-fiction and fiction alike. Books such as "The Big Milk Conspiracy" and "Got Milk? Got Matches: A Dairy Arson Mystery" have captured the whimsical imagination of readers, blurring the lines between dairy products and detective work in unexpected ways.
On a more lighthearted note, popular internet memes such as the "Milkman Arsonist" and "Dairy Delinquency Dilemmas" have emerged, providing a comical take on the perplexing association between milk consumption and arson. These memes, while amusing, underscore the public's fascination with the dairy-crime correlation and its implications for societal discourse.
In the immortal words of Shakespeare's Hamlet (slightly modified for effect), "To milk or not to milk, that is the question – whether 'tis smarter to suffer the crimes and fires of outrageous fortune, or to consume dairy against a sea of arson." Ah, the dairy dilemma persists, beckoning researchers to unravel its creamy mysteries.
As we navigate this curious blend of scholarly inquiry and comedic intrigue, it is essential to approach this topic with academic rigor, albeit amidst a backdrop of dairy-related puns and whimsy. After all, when it comes to unraveling the enigma of milk and arson in Idaho, there's no use crying over spilled milk – unless, of course, that spilled milk happens to be at the scene of a crime.

[[RESULTS]]
Upon evaluating the extensive dataset from the USDA and the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services, a remarkably high correlation coefficient of 0.9223425 was observed between milk consumption and arson incidents in Idaho. This finding indicates a strong positive relationship between the two variables. The coefficient of determination (r-squared) was calculated to be 0.8507157, suggesting that approximately 85% of the variability in arson incidents can be explained by the variation in milk consumption.
The p-value of less than 0.01 further solidifies the statistical significance of this correlation, providing compelling evidence of the association between milk consumption and arson in Idaho. This significant p-value points to the unlikelihood of observing such a strong association in the absence of a real effect, making it clear that this connection is no mere coincidence.
In Fig. 1, the scatterplot illustrates the striking correlation between milk consumption and arson incidents in Idaho. The data points form a clear upward trend, reaffirming the strong positive relationship between the two variables.
Now, let's milk this pun opportunity - what do you call a cow that sets off fireworks? A moo-let! Just as fireworks spark excitement, our research findings spark a newfound interest in the dairy-arson connection.
The compelling statistical evidence presented in this study warrants further examination into the potential causal mechanisms underlying this surprising relationship, as well as the implications for public safety and dairy industry practices. These findings may seem absurd at first glance, but they undeniably shed light on a curiously captivating association worth exploring further. After all, when it comes to research, it's always better to be too thorough than to cry over spilled milk later.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[DISCUSSION]]



ChatGPT:

[[DISCUSSION]]

Our findings demonstrate a compelling and unexpected correlation between milk consumption and arson incidents in Idaho. The statistically significant relationship between these variables, as indicated by the high correlation coefficient of 0.9223425 and the p-value of less than 0.01, aligns with prior research pointing to a potential connection between dairy products and criminal activities.

As "Smith et al." have previously observed, the positive correlation between milk consumption and reported arson cases in rural areas of Idaho echoes our own findings. This consistency underscores the robustness of the association and highlights the need for further exploration into the factors contributing to this dairy-fy phenomenon. It seems that when it comes to understanding the interplay between dairy habits and fire-related crimes, the evidence simply can't be milked for all it's worth.

Moreover, our results echo the historical anecdotes unearthed by "Doe's investigation," lending weight to the long-standing but obscure relationship between dairy and delinquency. It appears that the age-old saying "there's no use crying over spilled milk" takes on a whole new dimension when spilled milk coincides with criminal activities.

The comprehensive review conducted by "Jones" on dairy-centric crimes in various states further aligns with our research, emphasizing the peculiar patterns observed in Idaho. These connections call for a deeper exploration of the dairy-crime nexus and prompt investigators to rise to the occasion, unlike a soufflé in the oven.

In light of our findings, it is evident that the dairy-arson link extends beyond the realm of academic inquiry and delves into the wider cultural fascination with the curious association between milk consumption and arson. Despite the lighthearted memes and popular references, our research underscores the need for a rigorous understanding of this dairy-dilemma and its potential consequences for public safety. It seems the challenge of understanding the creamy mysteries of the dairy-arson connection needs to be tackled with both academic rigor and a few dairy-related puns to keep the mood light.

Our study serves as a compelling call to action for future research to churn through the complexities of this unlikely relationship. As we seek to comprehend the underlying mechanisms and implications of the milk-arson connection, it's important to recognize the potential impact on societal discourse and public safety. After all, as the old saying goes, "Where there's smoke, there's fire, but where there's milk, there's an udderly bewildering correlation with arson in Idaho."

So, as we percolate on these findings, it's clear that the dairy-arson association is not to be moo-ved lightly. Further investigation into this dairy-fy association is warranted, providing ample opportunities for researchers to milk the data for all it's worth and unearth the cream of the crop when it comes to understanding this thought-provoking connection.

And remember, when it comes to unraveling the mysteries of milk and arson in Idaho, it's always better to have too much evidence than to cry over spilled milk later.


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a goofy academic researcher writing an academic paper. You follow the rules, but you throw out convention regularly to make jokes and funny asides.You draft the discussion section of goofy academic research papers that sounds like it belongs based on the title and abstract provided.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up a short conclusion of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Milk consumption and Arson in Idaho. You can't resist a good dad joke. Add a relevant dad joke related to the content every couple of sentences. Stay serious and dry most of the time, but then occasionally let your wit shine through.

Limit your response to 300 tokens. At the very end, assert that no more research is needed in this area.

Here are the title, abstract, introduction, and results sections.
[[TITLE]]
"Moo-ving Evidence: Exploring the Dairy-fy Connection Between Milk Consumption and Arson in Idaho"

[[ABSTRACT]]
There has been an udderly tantalizing hypothesis circulating in the dairy industry and law enforcement circles regarding the potential link between milk consumption and arson incidents in the state of Idaho. This study endeavored to churn through the data and shed light on this uncommon association.

By delving into a comprehensive dataset obtained from the USDA and the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services, our research team meticulously analyzed milk consumption patterns and arson occurrences in Idaho from 2001 to 2021. The findings revealed a rather surprising correlation coefficient of 0.9223425 with a p-value of less than 0.01, indicating a strong statistical relationship between the two variables.

The data presented in this research suggests that as milk consumption in Idaho increased, so did the number of arson incidents. This intriguing correlation may raise eyebrows, but it is important to approach the conclusions with caution, as correlation does not necessarily imply causation. Nevertheless, it would be remiss to ignore this compelling link, especially when the stakes are so high.

As the saying goes, "Don't cry over spilled milk, unless it's spilled on a crime scene." This study's findings pose a dairy-e dilemma and call for further investigation into the potential mechanisms behind this bizarre association. It is our hope that this research serves as a catalyst for future studies to churn through the complexities of this unlikely relationship and provide a clearer understanding of the underlying factors at play.

[[INTRDUCTION]]
The connection between milk consumption and criminal behavior may seem like a topic best left to the musings of a comedian rather than a serious academic inquiry. However, the correlation between the two has caught the attention of researchers and law enforcement agencies alike, raising the question: Could there be a dairy-fy connection between milk and arson in the state of Idaho?
As we delve into this utterly bizarre topic, it's important to keep in mind that correlation is not causation, despite what some may moove to believe. Nevertheless, the statistical relationship uncovered in our study beckons further investigation into the enigmatic intersection of dairy products and criminal activity.
Let's milk this topic for all it's worth, shall we?

[[RESULTS]]
Upon evaluating the extensive dataset from the USDA and the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services, a remarkably high correlation coefficient of 0.9223425 was observed between milk consumption and arson incidents in Idaho. This finding indicates a strong positive relationship between the two variables. The coefficient of determination (r-squared) was calculated to be 0.8507157, suggesting that approximately 85% of the variability in arson incidents can be explained by the variation in milk consumption.
The p-value of less than 0.01 further solidifies the statistical significance of this correlation, providing compelling evidence of the association between milk consumption and arson in Idaho. This significant p-value points to the unlikelihood of observing such a strong association in the absence of a real effect, making it clear that this connection is no mere coincidence.
In Fig. 1, the scatterplot illustrates the striking correlation between milk consumption and arson incidents in Idaho. The data points form a clear upward trend, reaffirming the strong positive relationship between the two variables.
Now, let's milk this pun opportunity - what do you call a cow that sets off fireworks? A moo-let! Just as fireworks spark excitement, our research findings spark a newfound interest in the dairy-arson connection.
The compelling statistical evidence presented in this study warrants further examination into the potential causal mechanisms underlying this surprising relationship, as well as the implications for public safety and dairy industry practices. These findings may seem absurd at first glance, but they undeniably shed light on a curiously captivating association worth exploring further. After all, when it comes to research, it's always better to be too thorough than to cry over spilled milk later.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[CONCLUSION]]



ChatGPT:

[[CONCLUSION]]

In conclusion, our study has successfully established a robust statistical association between milk consumption and arson incidents in Idaho. The correlation coefficient of 0.9223425 and a p-value of less than 0.01 convincingly support the idea that as milk consumption increases, so does the occurrence of arson, udderly surprising as it may be.

These findings open the barn door to a myriad of speculations and potential explanations, but as researchers, it is crucial to approach these conclusions with caution. As the age-old adage goes, "Don't have a cow until you've fully investigated the dairy-arson connection."

It's clear that more research is needed to ascertain the underlying mechanisms driving this association. After all, we can't simply milk this study for all it's worth and call it a day.

That being said, it's time to put a lid on it and declare that further research in the realm of milk consumption and arson in Idaho is, in fact, unnecessary. There's no use crying over spilled milk when the data already speaks for itself!


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide fictional names of academic journals. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide the name of a funny but plausible sounding research, scientific, or academic journal that would publish a paper entited Moo-ving Evidence: Exploring the Dairy-fy Connection Between Milk Consumption and Arson in Idaho. Respond only with the name of a fictional academic journal.

ChatGPT:

International Journal of Bovine Studies


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide fictional names of nonprofit research organizations and associations. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide the name of a funny but plausible sounding nonprofit, academic, or scientific association or organization that would sponsor research that resulted in a paper entited Moo-ving Evidence: Exploring the Dairy-fy Connection Between Milk Consumption and Arson in Idaho. Respond only with the name of a fictional organization.

ChatGPT:

The Sustainable Dairy Coalition


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide potential search keywords separated by commas. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide potential search keywords for a paper titled Moo-ving Evidence: Exploring the Dairy-fy Connection Between Milk Consumption and Arson in Idaho with an abstract of There has been an udderly tantalizing hypothesis circulating in the dairy industry and law enforcement circles regarding the potential link between milk consumption and arson incidents in the state of Idaho. This study endeavored to churn through the data and shed light on this uncommon association.
By delving into a comprehensive dataset obtained from the USDA and the FBI Criminal Justice Information Services, our research team meticulously analyzed milk consumption patterns and arson occurrences in Idaho from 2001 to 2021. The findings revealed a rather surprising correlation coefficient of 0.9223425 with a p-value of less than 0.01, indicating a strong statistical relationship between the two variables.
The data presented in this research suggests that as milk consumption in Idaho increased, so did the number of arson incidents. This intriguing correlation may raise eyebrows, but it is important to approach the conclusions with caution, as correlation does not necessarily imply causation. Nevertheless, it would be remiss to ignore this compelling link, especially when the stakes are so high.
As the saying goes, "Don't cry over spilled milk, unless it's spilled on a crime scene." This study's findings pose a dairy-e dilemma and call for further investigation into the potential mechanisms behind this bizarre association. It is our hope that this research serves as a catalyst for future studies to churn through the complexities of this unlikely relationship and provide a clearer understanding of the underlying factors at play.

ChatGPT:

milk consumption, arson incidents, Idaho, correlation, statistical relationship, dairy industry, law enforcement, USDA dataset, FBI Criminal Justice Information Services, milk consumption patterns, arson occurrences

*There is a bunch of Python happening behind the scenes to turn this prompt sequence into a PDF.



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Data details

Milk consumption
Detailed data title: Per capita consumption of Fluid beverage milk in the US
Source: USDA
See what else correlates with Milk consumption

Arson in Idaho
Detailed data title: The arson rate per 100,000 residents in Idaho
Source: FBI Criminal Justice Information Services
See what else correlates with Arson in Idaho

Correlation r = 0.9223425 (Pearson correlation coefficient)
Correlation is a measure of how much the variables move together. If it is 0.99, when one goes up the other goes up. If it is 0.02, the connection is very weak or non-existent. If it is -0.99, then when one goes up the other goes down. If it is 1.00, you probably messed up your correlation function.

r2 = 0.8507157 (Coefficient of determination)
This means 85.1% of the change in the one variable (i.e., Arson in Idaho) is predictable based on the change in the other (i.e., Milk consumption) over the 21 years from 2001 through 2021.

p < 0.01, which is statistically significant(Null hypothesis significance test)
The p-value is 2.8E-9. 0.0000000027639528823734026000
The p-value is a measure of how probable it is that we would randomly find a result this extreme. More specifically the p-value is a measure of how probable it is that we would randomly find a result this extreme if we had only tested one pair of variables one time.

But I am a p-villain. I absolutely did not test only one pair of variables one time. I correlated hundreds of millions of pairs of variables. I threw boatloads of data into an industrial-sized blender to find this correlation.

Who is going to stop me? p-value reporting doesn't require me to report how many calculations I had to go through in order to find a low p-value!
On average, you will find a correaltion as strong as 0.92 in 2.8E-7% of random cases. Said differently, if you correlated 361,800,668 random variables You don't actually need 361 million variables to find a correlation like this one. I don't have that many variables in my database. You can also correlate variables that are not independent. I do this a lot.

p-value calculations are useful for understanding the probability of a result happening by chance. They are most useful when used to highlight the risk of a fluke outcome. For example, if you calculate a p-value of 0.30, the risk that the result is a fluke is high. It is good to know that! But there are lots of ways to get a p-value of less than 0.01, as evidenced by this project.

In this particular case, the values are so extreme as to be meaningless. That's why no one reports p-values with specificity after they drop below 0.01.

Just to be clear: I'm being completely transparent about the calculations. There is no math trickery. This is just how statistics shakes out when you calculate hundreds of millions of random correlations.
with the same 20 degrees of freedom, Degrees of freedom is a measure of how many free components we are testing. In this case it is 20 because we have two variables measured over a period of 21 years. It's just the number of years minus ( the number of variables minus one ), which in this case simplifies to the number of years minus one.
you would randomly expect to find a correlation as strong as this one.

[ 0.82, 0.97 ] 95% correlation confidence interval (using the Fisher z-transformation)
The confidence interval is an estimate the range of the value of the correlation coefficient, using the correlation itself as an input. The values are meant to be the low and high end of the correlation coefficient with 95% confidence.

This one is a bit more complciated than the other calculations, but I include it because many people have been pushing for confidence intervals instead of p-value calculations (for example: NEJM. However, if you are dredging data, you can reliably find yourself in the 5%. That's my goal!


All values for the years included above: If I were being very sneaky, I could trim years from the beginning or end of the datasets to increase the correlation on some pairs of variables. I don't do that because there are already plenty of correlations in my database without monkeying with the years.

Still, sometimes one of the variables has more years of data available than the other. This page only shows the overlapping years. To see all the years, click on "See what else correlates with..." link above.
200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021
Milk consumption (Pounds per person)192191188185185185183181181177173169164158155153149145141141134
Arson in Idaho (Arson rate)22.224.923.82219.919.424.117.215.515.214.315.912.213.814.711.410.610.18.697.8




Why this works

  1. Data dredging: I have 25,153 variables in my database. I compare all these variables against each other to find ones that randomly match up. That's 632,673,409 correlation calculations! This is called “data dredging.” Instead of starting with a hypothesis and testing it, I instead abused the data to see what correlations shake out. It’s a dangerous way to go about analysis, because any sufficiently large dataset will yield strong correlations completely at random.
  2. Lack of causal connection: There is probably Because these pages are automatically generated, it's possible that the two variables you are viewing are in fact causually related. I take steps to prevent the obvious ones from showing on the site (I don't let data about the weather in one city correlate with the weather in a neighboring city, for example), but sometimes they still pop up. If they are related, cool! You found a loophole.
    no direct connection between these variables, despite what the AI says above. This is exacerbated by the fact that I used "Years" as the base variable. Lots of things happen in a year that are not related to each other! Most studies would use something like "one person" in stead of "one year" to be the "thing" studied.
  3. Observations not independent: For many variables, sequential years are not independent of each other. If a population of people is continuously doing something every day, there is no reason to think they would suddenly change how they are doing that thing on January 1. A simple Personally I don't find any p-value calculation to be 'simple,' but you know what I mean.
    p-value calculation does not take this into account, so mathematically it appears less probable than it really is.
  4. Y-axis doesn't start at zero: I truncated the Y-axes of the graph above. I also used a line graph, which makes the visual connection stand out more than it deserves. Nothing against line graphs. They are great at telling a story when you have linear data! But visually it is deceptive because the only data is at the points on the graph, not the lines on the graph. In between each point, the data could have been doing anything. Like going for a random walk by itself!
    Mathematically what I showed is true, but it is intentionally misleading. Below is the same chart but with both Y-axes starting at zero.




Try it yourself

You can calculate the values on this page on your own! Try running the Python code to see the calculation results. Step 1: Download and install Python on your computer.

Step 2: Open a plaintext editor like Notepad and paste the code below into it.

Step 3: Save the file as "calculate_correlation.py" in a place you will remember, like your desktop. Copy the file location to your clipboard. On Windows, you can right-click the file and click "Properties," and then copy what comes after "Location:" As an example, on my computer the location is "C:\Users\tyler\Desktop"

Step 4: Open a command line window. For example, by pressing start and typing "cmd" and them pressing enter.

Step 5: Install the required modules by typing "pip install numpy", then pressing enter, then typing "pip install scipy", then pressing enter.

Step 6: Navigate to the location where you saved the Python file by using the "cd" command. For example, I would type "cd C:\Users\tyler\Desktop" and push enter.

Step 7: Run the Python script by typing "python calculate_correlation.py"

If you run into any issues, I suggest asking ChatGPT to walk you through installing Python and running the code below on your system. Try this question:

"Walk me through installing Python on my computer to run a script that uses scipy and numpy. Go step-by-step and ask me to confirm before moving on. Start by asking me questions about my operating system so that you know how to proceed. Assume I want the simplest installation with the latest version of Python and that I do not currently have any of the necessary elements installed. Remember to only give me one step per response and confirm I have done it before proceeding."


# These modules make it easier to perform the calculation
import numpy as np
from scipy import stats

# We'll define a function that we can call to return the correlation calculations
def calculate_correlation(array1, array2):

    # Calculate Pearson correlation coefficient and p-value
    correlation, p_value = stats.pearsonr(array1, array2)

    # Calculate R-squared as the square of the correlation coefficient
    r_squared = correlation**2

    return correlation, r_squared, p_value

# These are the arrays for the variables shown on this page, but you can modify them to be any two sets of numbers
array_1 = np.array([192,191,188,185,185,185,183,181,181,177,173,169,164,158,155,153,149,145,141,141,134,])
array_2 = np.array([22.2,24.9,23.8,22,19.9,19.4,24.1,17.2,15.5,15.2,14.3,15.9,12.2,13.8,14.7,11.4,10.6,10.1,8.6,9,7.8,])
array_1_name = "Milk consumption"
array_2_name = "Arson in Idaho"

# Perform the calculation
print(f"Calculating the correlation between {array_1_name} and {array_2_name}...")
correlation, r_squared, p_value = calculate_correlation(array_1, array_2)

# Print the results
print("Correlation Coefficient:", correlation)
print("R-squared:", r_squared)
print("P-value:", p_value)



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For the record, I am just one person. Tyler Vigen, he/him/his. I do have degrees, but they should not go after my name unless you want to annoy my wife. If that is your goal, then go ahead and cite me as "Tyler Vigen, A.A. A.A.S. B.A. J.D." Otherwise it is just "Tyler Vigen."

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Correlation ID: 2087 · Black Variable ID: 554 · Red Variable ID: 20040
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