Spurious correlation #2,018 · View random
A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is Popularity of the first name Gerard and the second variable is Air pollution in Anchorage. The chart goes from 1980 to 2022, and the two variables track closely in value over that time.

A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is Popularity of the first name Gerard and the second variable is Air pollution in Anchorage. The chart goes from 1980 to 2022, and the two variables track closely in value over that time.

Download png, svg

AI explanation

Fewer people were pronouncing the hard "G" in his name, leading to a reduction in gas emissions during speech.

^{Show image generation prompt} Model: dalle-3
Prompt: Generate an image that resembles a Discovery magazine cover. Depict a vibrant street scene with colorful buildings, where excited people gather and chat. Throughout the image, prominently display the name "Gerard" on banners and signs. Meanwhile, an atmospheric haze resides in the air, partially obscuring the distant mountains of Anchorage. Capture a sense of activity and festivity as well as a contrast between the lively streets and the distant, fog-covered landscape. The depiction should include only scenes, people, and objects, it should not include text or speech bubbles.

This image generation prompt was also generated by AI, using the following sequence:

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You select one of a few potential scene descriptors that seems to go along with the variables described. You respond only with the scene descriptions provided and say nothing else.
User prompt: Here are two variables: Popularity of the first name Gerard and Less than ideal air quality in Anchorage. Given these, which of the following image style descriptions seems most appropriate? Pick the one that seems to be related to one of the variables at hand. Please respond with only one of the following potential descriptions: Cutsy graphics Hyper-realistic A Discovery magazine cover image Cyberpunk Pop art
ChatGPT: A Discovery magazine cover image

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You describe simple visual scenes that depict the two variables stated. You combine both variables into one scene.
User prompt: Please describe a visual scene that prominently depicts both Popularity of the first name Gerard and Less than ideal air quality in Anchorage together. Keep the description simple.
ChatGPT: A vibrant street lined with colorful buildings, where people excitedly gather and chat, with the name "Gerard" appearing on banners and signs all around. Meanwhile, a dark haze hangs in the air, and the distant mountains in Anchorage are barely visible through the smog.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You write and improve image generation prompts for DALLE-3. You maintain the same subjects, but enhance the visuals.
User prompt: Please respond with an image generation prompt that would be likely to create an interesting visual using DALLE-3, using the following style: [ A Discovery magazine cover image ] and depicting this scene: A vibrant street lined with colorful buildings, where people excitedly gather and chat, with the name "Gerard" appearing on banners and signs all around. Meanwhile, a dark haze hangs in the air, and the distant mountains in Anchorage are barely visible through the smog. Keep the visual depiction simple. Do not include any words or speech bubbles.
ChatGPT: Generate an image that resembles a Discovery magazine cover. Depict a vibrant street scene with colorful buildings, where excited people gather and chat. Throughout the image, prominently display the name "Gerard" on banners and signs. Meanwhile, an atmospheric haze resides in the air, partially obscuring the distant mountains of Anchorage. Capture a sense of activity and festivity as well as a contrast between the lively streets and the distant, fog-covered landscape.

*Variations in the User Prompts from chart to chart are just the result of random number generation in Python. I wrote a few arrays of various styles and methods to ask questions to change up the results. Every time this site writes an explanation or generates an image, the script picks from each at random.

I sequence the requests into multiple prompts because I find GPT 3.5 to perform much better with short, well-managed contexts. Thus, I track the context directly in Python and only ask ChatGPT targeted questions.
^{Show prompt for explanation} Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106 (fine-tuned)
System prompt: You provide humorous responses in the form of plausible sounding explanations for correlations. You assume the correlation is causative for the purpose of the explanation even if it is ridiculous. You do not chat with the user, you only reply with the causal connection explanation and nothing else.
User prompt: Please make up a funny explanation for how a decrease in Popularity of the first name Gerard caused Air pollution in Anchorage to decrease.

AI academic paper

(Because p < 0.01)

Clear Air, Gerard's Flair: A Tale of Anchorage's Name and Air

Journal of Atmospheric Quirkiness

Jan 2024

Reminder: This paper is AI-generated. Not real!

^{Show prompt used to generate this paper} Quick note: This sequence is long and repetitive. That's how the prompt engineering works for this one. I manage the output in Python to format it into this PDF.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You draft a literature review section of an academic research paper, that starts out dry for the first few sentences but then becomes hilarious and goofy.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up a literature review section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Popularity of the first name Gerard and Air pollution in Anchorage. Make it seem dry like academic research paper, but with lots of subtle hidden offhand remarks, jokes, goofy observations, and puns.

Speak in the present tense for this section (the authors find...), as is common in academic research paper literature reviews. Name the sources in a format similar to this: In "Book," the authors find lorem and ipsum.

Make up the lorem and ipsum part, but make it sound related to the topic at hand.

Start by naming serious-sounding studies by authors like Smith, Doe, and Jones - but then quickly devolve. Name some real non-fiction books that would be related to the topic. Then name some real fiction books that sound like they could be related. Then devolve ever further, and mention something completely ridiculous, like you conducted literature review by reading CVS receipts.

Here is the title and abstract of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
Clear Air, Gerard's Flair: A Tale of Anchorage's Name and Air

[[ABSTRACT]]
This paper explores the peculiar relationship between the popularity of the first name "Gerard" and air pollution in Anchorage. Utilizing data from the US Social Security Administration and the Environmental Protection Agency, a comprehensive analysis was conducted to investigate this unusual correlation. The findings revealed a strikingly high correlation coefficient of 0.8926714 with a statistically significant p-value of less than 0.01 for the period spanning from 1980 to 2022. The implications of these unexpected results are discussed, offering a whimsical exploration of the potential influence of appellations on atmospheric conditions.

-------

And here is the introduction section that led to this literature review:
[[INTRODUCTION]]
The study of the relationship between human nomenclature and environmental factors has long been a topic of interest among scholars and enthusiasts alike. While the connection between air quality and individual behavior has been extensively documented, little attention has been given to the potential impact of first names on atmospheric conditions. In this study, we endeavor to fill this gap in the literature by examining the association between the popularity of the first name "Gerard" and levels of air pollution in Anchorage, Alaska. Anchorage, with its pristine natural surroundings and growing urban population, provides an intriguing backdrop for an investigation of this nature.
The choice of "Gerard" as the focal name for this analysis is no mere happenstance. Historically, the name "Gerard" has been associated with qualities such as strength, resilience, and, some might say, an air of sophistication. Anchorage, on the other hand, has been celebrated for its breathtaking natural landscapes yet faces the perennial challenge of environmental sustainability amidst its burgeoning populace. By juxtaposing these two seemingly disparate elements, we aim to shed light on the unexpected kinship between a person's name and the quality of the air they inhale.
As for why "Gerard" specifically was chosen for this study, it is not merely due to the author's inexplicable fondness for the name. Rather, the popularity of this particular moniker lends itself to a statistically robust analysis, given its varying levels of occurrence over the past four decades. This variation provides a fertile ground for investigating any potential concurrent trends in air pollution levels, showcasing the potential influence of nomenclature on the atmosphere.
Building upon the abstract findings which point to a surprisingly high correlation coefficient and statistically significant p-value, the forthcoming sections will delve into the methodologies employed, the data sources utilized, and the implications of the results. However, on this scholarly journey, one must not overlook the lighter side of this endeavor, and it is with this in mind that we embark upon an exploration of the whimsical and enigmatic interplay of human naming conventions and environmental phenomena. Thus, along with a rigorous academic inquiry, we invite the reader to join us in a lighthearted romp through the uncharted territory where appellations and atmospheric conditions converge.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]

ChatGPT:
[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]

The connection between the popularity of the first name "Gerard" and air pollution in Anchorage has not been extensively studied in the academic literature. However, a handful of existing studies have delved into related topics, offering some insights into the potential influence of nomenclature on environmental variables. For instance, Smith et al. (2010) examined the correlation between given names and regional climate patterns, finding intriguing but inconclusive evidence of a relationship. Doe (2015) explored the societal implications of personal names on public health outcomes, touching upon potential connections to air quality. In a similar vein, Jones (2018) investigated the historical trends of first names and their potential impact on urban development, hinting at the broader influence of appellations on environmental factors.

Turning to broader literature on human behavior and environmental influences, "The Geography of Bliss" by Eric Weiner offers a whimsical exploration of the cultural nuances and geographic idiosyncrasies that shape human well-being, providing a tangential but insightful perspective on the interplay between human factors and environmental conditions. Likewise, "The Name of the Wind" by Patrick Rothfuss, while strictly a work of fiction, delves into the enigmatic journey of an individual whose appellation appears to hold uncanny sway over his surroundings, offering a playful but thought-provoking departure into the realm of names and their influence.

On a more unconventional note, this comprehensive literature review also draws upon the untapped well of knowledge embedded within everyday artifacts, including but not limited to, grocery store receipts, fortune cookie messages, and, per chance, the scribblings found on bathroom stalls. While these sources may not boast the academic rigor of peer-reviewed journals, they do provide a unique and, at times, eyebrow-raising glimpse into the collective consciousness regarding the intersection of names and environmental phenomena. These unconventional sources, while to be taken with a proverbial grain of salt, offer a lighthearted and unexpected avenue for exploring the peculiar connection between appellations and atmospheric conditions.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You draft the methodology section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the methodology section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Popularity of the first name Gerard and Air pollution in Anchorage. Make it seem dry like academic research paper, but with lots of subtle hidden offhand remarks, jokes, goofy observations, and puns.

Your research team collected data from all across the internet, but mostly just used information from US Social Security Administration and Environmental Protection Agency . You used data from 1980 to 2022

Make up the research methods you don't know. Make them a bit goofy and convoluted.

Here is the title, abstract, and introduction of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
Clear Air, Gerard's Flair: A Tale of Anchorage's Name and Air

[[ABSTRACT]]
This paper explores the peculiar relationship between the popularity of the first name "Gerard" and air pollution in Anchorage. Utilizing data from the US Social Security Administration and the Environmental Protection Agency, a comprehensive analysis was conducted to investigate this unusual correlation. The findings revealed a strikingly high correlation coefficient of 0.8926714 with a statistically significant p-value of less than 0.01 for the period spanning from 1980 to 2022. The implications of these unexpected results are discussed, offering a whimsical exploration of the potential influence of appellations on atmospheric conditions.

[[INTRODUCTION]]
The study of the relationship between human nomenclature and environmental factors has long been a topic of interest among scholars and enthusiasts alike. While the connection between air quality and individual behavior has been extensively documented, little attention has been given to the potential impact of first names on atmospheric conditions. In this study, we endeavor to fill this gap in the literature by examining the association between the popularity of the first name "Gerard" and levels of air pollution in Anchorage, Alaska. Anchorage, with its pristine natural surroundings and growing urban population, provides an intriguing backdrop for an investigation of this nature.
The choice of "Gerard" as the focal name for this analysis is no mere happenstance. Historically, the name "Gerard" has been associated with qualities such as strength, resilience, and, some might say, an air of sophistication. Anchorage, on the other hand, has been celebrated for its breathtaking natural landscapes yet faces the perennial challenge of environmental sustainability amidst its burgeoning populace. By juxtaposing these two seemingly disparate elements, we aim to shed light on the unexpected kinship between a person's name and the quality of the air they inhale.
As for why "Gerard" specifically was chosen for this study, it is not merely due to the author's inexplicable fondness for the name. Rather, the popularity of this particular moniker lends itself to a statistically robust analysis, given its varying levels of occurrence over the past four decades. This variation provides a fertile ground for investigating any potential concurrent trends in air pollution levels, showcasing the potential influence of nomenclature on the atmosphere.
Building upon the abstract findings which point to a surprisingly high correlation coefficient and statistically significant p-value, the forthcoming sections will delve into the methodologies employed, the data sources utilized, and the implications of the results. However, on this scholarly journey, one must not overlook the lighter side of this endeavor, and it is with this in mind that we embark upon an exploration of the whimsical and enigmatic interplay of human naming conventions and environmental phenomena. Thus, along with a rigorous academic inquiry, we invite the reader to join us in a lighthearted romp through the uncharted territory where appellations and atmospheric conditions converge.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[METHODOLOGY]]

ChatGPT:

[[METHODOLOGY]]

The methodology adopted in this investigation involved a multifaceted approach to capture and analyze the nuanced relationship between the popularity of the name "Gerard" and air pollution in Anchorage, Alaska. Initial data pertaining to the frequency of the first name "Gerard" was procured from the US Social Security Administration's comprehensive repository of birth names in the United States. This dataset, spanning the years 1980 to 2022, provided the foundational basis for evaluating the temporal dynamics of the name's prevalence.

To complement this information, air pollution data was sourced from the Environmental Protection Agency's air quality monitoring stations in Anchorage. Through a meticulous process of data collection and validation, atmospheric pollutant levels, including but not limited to particulate matter, nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide, and carbon monoxide, were collated to reflect the ambient air quality experienced in the region over the same temporal period.

Upon securing the requisite datasets, an ingenious application of statistical tools was implemented to assess the potential correlation between the temporal variations in the popularity of the name "Gerard" and levels of air pollution in Anchorage. Multiple regression analyses, time series modeling, and cross-correlation techniques were deftly employed to disentangle the intricate interplay of these seemingly disparate variables.

Furthermore, to account for potential confounding factors such as population growth, urban development, and meteorological influences, a robust set of control variables was incorporated into the analytical framework. This served to bolster the veracity of the findings and diminish the likelihood of spurious correlations clouding the elucidation of the purported relationship between the nomenclatural predilections of Anchorage's denizens and the atmospheric milieu in which they reside.

Intriguingly, the amalgamation of these methodological choices yielded a comprehensive understanding of the enigmatic nexus between the first name "Gerard" and air pollution in Anchorage. While the application of these methodologies may appear convoluted at first glance, their judicious implementation was essential in grappling with the idiosyncratic nature of this research endeavor.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You draft the results section of an academic research paper. You speak in the past tense (you found...).
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the results section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Popularity of the first name Gerard and Air pollution in Anchorage. Make it seem dry like academic research paper, but with lots of subtle hidden offhand remarks, jokes, goofy observations, and puns.

Your research team collected data from all across the internet, but mostly just used information from US Social Security Administration and Environmental Protection Agency .

For the time period 1980 to 2022, you found a correlation 0.8926714, r-squared of 0.7968622, and p < 0.01.

One figure will be included. The figure (Fig. 1) is a scatterplot showing the strong correlation between the two variables. You don't need to specify where; I will add the figure.

Here is the title and abstract of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
Clear Air, Gerard's Flair: A Tale of Anchorage's Name and Air

[[ABSTRACT]]
This paper explores the peculiar relationship between the popularity of the first name "Gerard" and air pollution in Anchorage. Utilizing data from the US Social Security Administration and the Environmental Protection Agency, a comprehensive analysis was conducted to investigate this unusual correlation. The findings revealed a strikingly high correlation coefficient of 0.8926714 with a statistically significant p-value of less than 0.01 for the period spanning from 1980 to 2022. The implications of these unexpected results are discussed, offering a whimsical exploration of the potential influence of appellations on atmospheric conditions.

-------

And here is the methodology section that led to this result:
[[METHODOLOGY]]
The study of the relationship between human nomenclature and environmental factors has long been a topic of interest among scholars and enthusiasts alike. While the connection between air quality and individual behavior has been extensively documented, little attention has been given to the potential impact of first names on atmospheric conditions. In this study, we endeavor to fill this gap in the literature by examining the association between the popularity of the first name "Gerard" and levels of air pollution in Anchorage, Alaska. Anchorage, with its pristine natural surroundings and growing urban population, provides an intriguing backdrop for an investigation of this nature.
The choice of "Gerard" as the focal name for this analysis is no mere happenstance. Historically, the name "Gerard" has been associated with qualities such as strength, resilience, and, some might say, an air of sophistication. Anchorage, on the other hand, has been celebrated for its breathtaking natural landscapes yet faces the perennial challenge of environmental sustainability amidst its burgeoning populace. By juxtaposing these two seemingly disparate elements, we aim to shed light on the unexpected kinship between a person's name and the quality of the air they inhale.
As for why "Gerard" specifically was chosen for this study, it is not merely due to the author's inexplicable fondness for the name. Rather, the popularity of this particular moniker lends itself to a statistically robust analysis, given its varying levels of occurrence over the past four decades. This variation provides a fertile ground for investigating any potential concurrent trends in air pollution levels, showcasing the potential influence of nomenclature on the atmosphere.
Building upon the abstract findings which point to a surprisingly high correlation coefficient and statistically significant p-value, the forthcoming sections will delve into the methodologies employed, the data sources utilized, and the implications of the results. However, on this scholarly journey, one must not overlook the lighter side of this endeavor, and it is with this in mind that we embark upon an exploration of the whimsical and enigmatic interplay of human naming conventions and environmental phenomena. Thus, along with a rigorous academic inquiry, we invite the reader to join us in a lighthearted romp through the uncharted territory where appellations and atmospheric conditions converge.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[RESULTS]]

ChatGPT:

[[RESULTS]]

The analysis of the data revealed a remarkably high correlation coefficient of 0.8926714 (p < 0.01) between the popularity of the first name "Gerard" and air pollution levels in Anchorage from 1980 to 2022. This finding suggests a robust association between the frequency of this distinguished name and the quality of the air in the Alaskan city.

Figure 1 presents a scatterplot that unmistakably illustrates the strong correlation between the occurrence of the name "Gerard" and levels of air pollution in Anchorage. The upward trend in the scatterplot is striking, almost as striking as the resemblance of this correlation to a well-crafted pun - clear as the air in Anchorage. It is as if the name "Gerard" has left an indelible mark on the atmospheric composition of the city, much like how a person signs their name on a clean window pane.

The calculated r-squared value of 0.7968622 further corroborates the substantial relationship between the variables in question, leaving little room for doubt about the veracity of the observed association. It is as though Anchorage's air quality is not just a matter of mere meteorology but a reflection of the ebb and flow of popular nomenclature. The statistical significance of the p-value, less than 0.01, adds an air of certainty to these findings, not unlike the assurance of a high-quality air purifier.

In summary, the results depict a compelling correspondence between the popularity of the first name "Gerard" and air pollution in Anchorage. The implications of these unexpected and somewhat whimsical results will be carefully examined in the subsequent sections, shedding light on the potential influence of human names on atmospheric conditions.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You draft the discussion section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the discussion section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Popularity of the first name Gerard and Air pollution in Anchorage. Make it seem dry like academic research paper, but with lots of subtle hidden offhand remarks, jokes, goofy observations, and puns.

Limit your response to 500 tokens.

Here are the title, abstract, literature review, and results sections. Please harken back to 1-2 of the goofy items in the literature review, but pretend to take them completely seriously. Discuss how your results supported the prior research.

Do not write a conclusion. I will add a conclusion after this.

[[TITLE]]
Clear Air, Gerard's Flair: A Tale of Anchorage's Name and Air

[[ABSTRACT]]
This paper explores the peculiar relationship between the popularity of the first name "Gerard" and air pollution in Anchorage. Utilizing data from the US Social Security Administration and the Environmental Protection Agency, a comprehensive analysis was conducted to investigate this unusual correlation. The findings revealed a strikingly high correlation coefficient of 0.8926714 with a statistically significant p-value of less than 0.01 for the period spanning from 1980 to 2022. The implications of these unexpected results are discussed, offering a whimsical exploration of the potential influence of appellations on atmospheric conditions.

[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]
The connection between the popularity of the first name "Gerard" and air pollution in Anchorage has not been extensively studied in the academic literature. However, a handful of existing studies have delved into related topics, offering some insights into the potential influence of nomenclature on environmental variables. For instance, Smith et al. (2010) examined the correlation between given names and regional climate patterns, finding intriguing but inconclusive evidence of a relationship. Doe (2015) explored the societal implications of personal names on public health outcomes, touching upon potential connections to air quality. In a similar vein, Jones (2018) investigated the historical trends of first names and their potential impact on urban development, hinting at the broader influence of appellations on environmental factors.
Turning to broader literature on human behavior and environmental influences, "The Geography of Bliss" by Eric Weiner offers a whimsical exploration of the cultural nuances and geographic idiosyncrasies that shape human well-being, providing a tangential but insightful perspective on the interplay between human factors and environmental conditions. Likewise, "The Name of the Wind" by Patrick Rothfuss, while strictly a work of fiction, delves into the enigmatic journey of an individual whose appellation appears to hold uncanny sway over his surroundings, offering a playful but thought-provoking departure into the realm of names and their influence.
On a more unconventional note, this comprehensive literature review also draws upon the untapped well of knowledge embedded within everyday artifacts, including but not limited to, grocery store receipts, fortune cookie messages, and, per chance, the scribblings found on bathroom stalls. While these sources may not boast the academic rigor of peer-reviewed journals, they do provide a unique and, at times, eyebrow-raising glimpse into the collective consciousness regarding the intersection of names and environmental phenomena. These unconventional sources, while to be taken with a proverbial grain of salt, offer a lighthearted and unexpected avenue for exploring the peculiar connection between appellations and atmospheric conditions.

[[RESULTS]]
The analysis of the data revealed a remarkably high correlation coefficient of 0.8926714 (p < 0.01) between the popularity of the first name "Gerard" and air pollution levels in Anchorage from 1980 to 2022. This finding suggests a robust association between the frequency of this distinguished name and the quality of the air in the Alaskan city.
Figure 1 presents a scatterplot that unmistakably illustrates the strong correlation between the occurrence of the name "Gerard" and levels of air pollution in Anchorage. The upward trend in the scatterplot is striking, almost as striking as the resemblance of this correlation to a well-crafted pun - clear as the air in Anchorage. It is as if the name "Gerard" has left an indelible mark on the atmospheric composition of the city, much like how a person signs their name on a clean window pane.
The calculated r-squared value of 0.7968622 further corroborates the substantial relationship between the variables in question, leaving little room for doubt about the veracity of the observed association. It is as though Anchorage's air quality is not just a matter of mere meteorology but a reflection of the ebb and flow of popular nomenclature. The statistical significance of the p-value, less than 0.01, adds an air of certainty to these findings, not unlike the assurance of a high-quality air purifier.
In summary, the results depict a compelling correspondence between the popularity of the first name "Gerard" and air pollution in Anchorage. The implications of these unexpected and somewhat whimsical results will be carefully examined in the subsequent sections, shedding light on the potential influence of human names on atmospheric conditions.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[DISCUSSION]]

ChatGPT:

[[DISCUSSION]]

The findings of this study offer a captivating glimpse into the unconventional relationship between the popularity of the first name "Gerard" and air pollution in Anchorage. Building upon the peculiar observations from the literature review, which may have seemed more whimsical than scientific at first glance, the results of this investigation have unexpectedly provided support for the notion that appellations may indeed hold some influence over atmospheric conditions. The robust correlation coefficient and the statistically significant p-value lend credence to the hypothesis that there exists a tangible connection between the frequency of the name "Gerard" and the quality of the air in this Alaskan city.

The high correlation coefficient of 0.8926714 indicates a strikingly strong association between the occurrence of the name "Gerard" and levels of air pollution. The almost linear relationship depicted in the scatterplot, akin to a meticulously crafted pun, cannot be overlooked. It seems as if the name "Gerard" has contributed significantly to the atmospheric composition of Anchorage, leaving an indelible mark on its air quality, much like a signature on a clean window pane. The r-squared value of 0.7968622 further confirms the substantial relationship between the variables, reinforcing the notion that the air quality in Anchorage may be intertwined with the ebb and flow of popular nomenclature.

These findings challenge conventional wisdom and suggest that the intricate interplay between human factors and environmental conditions may extend to something as seemingly innocuous as a first name. While this investigation may have originated from a place of curiosity and perhaps a touch of whimsy, the results demand serious consideration. The implications of this unforeseen relationship could potentially extend beyond Anchorage, prompting further exploration into the influence of personal names on environmental variables in diverse geographical contexts.

Intriguingly, these findings align with the tangential and seemingly unrelated insights gleaned from the literature review, where unexpected sources hinted at the potential impact of names on environmental phenomena. The playful but thought-provoking departures into the realm of names and their influence in works of fiction inadvertently foreshadowed the unexpected nature of the results obtained in this study. Perhaps there is more to the influence of appellations than meets the eye, and the collective consciousness embedded within everyday artifacts may have stumbled upon a curious truth.

In essence, this research sheds light on the unanticipated and inexplicable connection between the popularity of the name "Gerard" and air pollution in Anchorage. While the implications of these findings may seem whimsical at first, they beckon a deeper exploration into the influence of human factors on environmental conditions and offer an unexpected dimension to the discourse on atmospheric phenomena.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You draft the discussion section of goofy academic research papers that sounds like it belongs based on the title and abstract provided.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up a short conclusion of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Popularity of the first name Gerard and Air pollution in Anchorage. Make it seem dry like academic research paper, but with lots of subtle hidden offhand remarks, jokes, goofy observations, and puns.

Limit your response to 300 tokens. At the very end, assert that no more research is needed in this area.

Here are the title, abstract, introduction, and results sections.
[[TITLE]]
Clear Air, Gerard's Flair: A Tale of Anchorage's Name and Air

[[ABSTRACT]]
This paper explores the peculiar relationship between the popularity of the first name "Gerard" and air pollution in Anchorage. Utilizing data from the US Social Security Administration and the Environmental Protection Agency, a comprehensive analysis was conducted to investigate this unusual correlation. The findings revealed a strikingly high correlation coefficient of 0.8926714 with a statistically significant p-value of less than 0.01 for the period spanning from 1980 to 2022. The implications of these unexpected results are discussed, offering a whimsical exploration of the potential influence of appellations on atmospheric conditions.

[[INTRDUCTION]]
The study of the relationship between human nomenclature and environmental factors has long been a topic of interest among scholars and enthusiasts alike. While the connection between air quality and individual behavior has been extensively documented, little attention has been given to the potential impact of first names on atmospheric conditions. In this study, we endeavor to fill this gap in the literature by examining the association between the popularity of the first name "Gerard" and levels of air pollution in Anchorage, Alaska. Anchorage, with its pristine natural surroundings and growing urban population, provides an intriguing backdrop for an investigation of this nature.
The choice of "Gerard" as the focal name for this analysis is no mere happenstance. Historically, the name "Gerard" has been associated with qualities such as strength, resilience, and, some might say, an air of sophistication. Anchorage, on the other hand, has been celebrated for its breathtaking natural landscapes yet faces the perennial challenge of environmental sustainability amidst its burgeoning populace. By juxtaposing these two seemingly disparate elements, we aim to shed light on the unexpected kinship between a person's name and the quality of the air they inhale.
As for why "Gerard" specifically was chosen for this study, it is not merely due to the author's inexplicable fondness for the name. Rather, the popularity of this particular moniker lends itself to a statistically robust analysis, given its varying levels of occurrence over the past four decades. This variation provides a fertile ground for investigating any potential concurrent trends in air pollution levels, showcasing the potential influence of nomenclature on the atmosphere.
Building upon the abstract findings which point to a surprisingly high correlation coefficient and statistically significant p-value, the forthcoming sections will delve into the methodologies employed, the data sources utilized, and the implications of the results. However, on this scholarly journey, one must not overlook the lighter side of this endeavor, and it is with this in mind that we embark upon an exploration of the whimsical and enigmatic interplay of human naming conventions and environmental phenomena. Thus, along with a rigorous academic inquiry, we invite the reader to join us in a lighthearted romp through the uncharted territory where appellations and atmospheric conditions converge.

[[RESULTS]]
The analysis of the data revealed a remarkably high correlation coefficient of 0.8926714 (p < 0.01) between the popularity of the first name "Gerard" and air pollution levels in Anchorage from 1980 to 2022. This finding suggests a robust association between the frequency of this distinguished name and the quality of the air in the Alaskan city.
Figure 1 presents a scatterplot that unmistakably illustrates the strong correlation between the occurrence of the name "Gerard" and levels of air pollution in Anchorage. The upward trend in the scatterplot is striking, almost as striking as the resemblance of this correlation to a well-crafted pun - clear as the air in Anchorage. It is as if the name "Gerard" has left an indelible mark on the atmospheric composition of the city, much like how a person signs their name on a clean window pane.
The calculated r-squared value of 0.7968622 further corroborates the substantial relationship between the variables in question, leaving little room for doubt about the veracity of the observed association. It is as though Anchorage's air quality is not just a matter of mere meteorology but a reflection of the ebb and flow of popular nomenclature. The statistical significance of the p-value, less than 0.01, adds an air of certainty to these findings, not unlike the assurance of a high-quality air purifier.
In summary, the results depict a compelling correspondence between the popularity of the first name "Gerard" and air pollution in Anchorage. The implications of these unexpected and somewhat whimsical results will be carefully examined in the subsequent sections, shedding light on the potential influence of human names on atmospheric conditions.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[CONCLUSION]]

ChatGPT:

[[CONCLUSION]]

The findings of this study present a rather improbable alliance between the popularity of the first name "Gerard" and air pollution levels in Anchorage. The strikingly high correlation coefficient and statistically significant p-value not only raise eyebrows but also prompt us to reconsider the potential impact of nomenclature on atmospheric dynamics. The whimsical nature of this discovery offers a breath of fresh air in the somewhat stagnant realm of environmental research. It seems as though "Gerard" has left an indelible mark on the atmospheric composition of Anchorage, akin to an autograph on a clear window pane.

While the implications of these findings may seem as thin as the air in Anchorage, they do provoke an alluring sense of curiosity about the unconventional influences on environmental phenomena. It appears that the name "Gerard" carries more weight than anticipated, not unlike a dense fog settling over the city. The unexpected kinship between this distinguished name and air pollution invites contemplation about the unexplored nuances of human naming conventions and their potential ripple effects on our surroundings.

In light of these findings, it is tempting to speculate that enigmatic forces beyond mere meteorology are at play in Anchorage's atmospheric composition. The interplay of human appellations and environmental conditions is indeed a curious puzzle, one that beckons further exploration, much like an enigmatic riddle waiting to be solved. However, with the state of flux in the field of environmental research, one might argue that this line of inquiry is a bit like beating a dead horse - there's little to gain from flogging this already exhausted steed. Therefore, it is our assertion that no further research is needed in this area.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide fictional names of academic journals. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide the name of a funny but plausible sounding research, scientific, or academic journal that would publish a paper entited Clear Air, Gerard's Flair: A Tale of Anchorage's Name and Air. Respond only with the name of a fictional academic journal.

ChatGPT:

Journal of Atmospheric Quirkiness

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide fictional names of nonprofit research organizations and associations. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide the name of a funny but plausible sounding nonprofit, academic, or scientific association or organization that would sponsor research that resulted in a paper entited Clear Air, Gerard's Flair: A Tale of Anchorage's Name and Air. Respond only with the name of a fictional organization.

ChatGPT:

The Society for Atmospheric Aesthetics and Linguistic Landscapes

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide potential search keywords separated by commas. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide potential search keywords for a paper titled Clear Air, Gerard's Flair: A Tale of Anchorage's Name and Air with an abstract of This paper explores the peculiar relationship between the popularity of the first name "Gerard" and air pollution in Anchorage. Utilizing data from the US Social Security Administration and the Environmental Protection Agency, a comprehensive analysis was conducted to investigate this unusual correlation. The findings revealed a strikingly high correlation coefficient of 0.8926714 with a statistically significant p-value of less than 0.01 for the period spanning from 1980 to 2022. The implications of these unexpected results are discussed, offering a whimsical exploration of the potential influence of appellations on atmospheric conditions.

ChatGPT:

"Gerard" popularity, air pollution, Anchorage, US Social Security Administration data, Environmental Protection Agency data, correlation coefficient, p-value, statistical significance, atmospheric conditions, whimsical exploration

*There is a bunch of Python happening behind the scenes to turn this prompt sequence into a PDF.

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Data details

Popularity of the first name Gerard
Detailed data title: Babies of all sexes born in the US named Gerard
Source: US Social Security Administration
See what else correlates with Popularity of the first name Gerard

Air pollution in Anchorage
Detailed data title: Percentage of days with moderate or worse air quality in Anchorage, AK
Source: Environmental Protection Agency
See what else correlates with Air pollution in Anchorage

Correlation r = 0.8926714 (Pearson correlation coefficient)
Correlation is a measure of how much the variables move together. If it is 0.99, when one goes up the other goes up. If it is 0.02, the connection is very weak or non-existent. If it is -0.99, then when one goes up the other goes down. If it is 1.00, you probably messed up your correlation function.

r² = 0.7968622 (Coefficient of determination)
This means 79.7% of the change in the one variable (i.e., Air pollution in Anchorage) is predictable based on the change in the other (i.e., Popularity of the first name Gerard) over the 43 years from 1980 through 2022.

p < 0.01, which is statistically significant(Null hypothesis significance test)
The p-value is 8.9E-16.^Show 0.0000000000000008899761141727
The p-value is a measure of how probable it is that we would randomly find a result this extreme.^Note More specifically the p-value is a measure of how probable it is that we would randomly find a result this extreme if we had only tested one pair of variables one time.

But I am a p-villain. I absolutely did not test only one pair of variables one time. I correlated hundreds of millions of pairs of variables. I threw boatloads of data into an industrial-sized blender to find this correlation.

Who is going to stop me? p-value reporting doesn't require me to report how many calculations I had to go through in order to find a low p-value!
On average, you will find a correaltion as strong as 0.89 in 8.9E-14% of random cases. Said differently, if you correlated 1,123,625,661,492,697 random variables^Note You don't actually need 1 quadrillion variables to find a correlation like this one. I don't have that many variables in my database. You can also correlate variables that are not independent. I do this a lot.

p-value calculations are useful for understanding the probability of a result happening by chance. They are most useful when used to highlight the risk of a fluke outcome. For example, if you calculate a p-value of 0.30, the risk that the result is a fluke is high. It is good to know that! But there are lots of ways to get a p-value of less than 0.01, as evidenced by this project.

In this particular case, the values are so extreme as to be meaningless. That's why no one reports p-values with specificity after they drop below 0.01.

Just to be clear: I'm being completely transparent about the calculations. There is no math trickery. This is just how statistics shakes out when you calculate hundreds of millions of random correlations.
with the same 42 degrees of freedom, ^Note Degrees of freedom is a measure of how many free components we are testing. In this case it is 42 because we have two variables measured over a period of 43 years. It's just the number of years minus ( the number of variables minus one ), which in this case simplifies to the number of years minus one.
you would randomly expect to find a correlation as strong as this one.

[ 0.81, 0.94 ] 95% correlation confidence interval (using the Fisher z-transformation)
^{Read more about the confidence interval} The confidence interval is an estimate the range of the value of the correlation coefficient, using the correlation itself as an input. The values are meant to be the low and high end of the correlation coefficient with 95% confidence.

This one is a bit more complciated than the other calculations, but I include it because many people have been pushing for confidence intervals instead of p-value calculations (for example: NEJM. However, if you are dredging data, you can reliably find yourself in the 5%. That's my goal!

All values for the years included above: ^Note If I were being very sneaky, I could trim years from the beginning or end of the datasets to increase the correlation on some pairs of variables. I don't do that because there are already plenty of correlations in my database without monkeying with the years.

Still, sometimes one of the variables has more years of data available than the other. This page only shows the overlapping years. To see all the years, click on "See what else correlates with..." link above.

	1980	1981	1982	1983	1984	1985	1986	1987	1988	1989	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
Popularity of the first name Gerard (Babies born)	342	316	366	303	336	343	338	320	327	325	350	309	268	250	258	213	195	190	175	175	194	146	156	134	124	113	117	99	126	130	140	172	171	183	202	180	160	161	149	116	119	120	128
Air pollution in Anchorage (Bad air quality days)	44.8087	43.2877	49.0411	51.2329	44.8087	37.5342	45.4795	39.6552	39.4521	37.5	43.2507	41.7582	51.9231	40.0552	36.7403	32.5069	35.0427	26.1111	27.9006	23.3227	15.7377	20	17.7632	13.871	13.0293	16.8317	16.2338	11.2903	11.5385	22.865	21.3699	23.2877	30.3279	22.1918	32.6027	27.6712	31.4208	21.6438	19.726	28.2192	10.929	19.726	16.7123

Why this works

Data dredging: I have 25,153 variables in my database. I compare all these variables against each other to find ones that randomly match up. That's 632,673,409 correlation calculations! This is called “data dredging.” Instead of starting with a hypothesis and testing it, I instead abused the data to see what correlations shake out. It’s a dangerous way to go about analysis, because any sufficiently large dataset will yield strong correlations completely at random.
Lack of causal connection: There is probably^Note Because these pages are automatically generated, it's possible that the two variables you are viewing are in fact causually related. I take steps to prevent the obvious ones from showing on the site (I don't let data about the weather in one city correlate with the weather in a neighboring city, for example), but sometimes they still pop up. If they are related, cool! You found a loophole.
no direct connection between these variables, despite what the AI says above. This is exacerbated by the fact that I used "Years" as the base variable. Lots of things happen in a year that are not related to each other! Most studies would use something like "one person" in stead of "one year" to be the "thing" studied.
Observations not independent: For many variables, sequential years are not independent of each other. If a population of people is continuously doing something every day, there is no reason to think they would suddenly change how they are doing that thing on January 1. A simple^Note Personally I don't find any p-value calculation to be 'simple,' but you know what I mean.
p-value calculation does not take this into account, so mathematically it appears less probable than it really is.

Try it yourself

You can calculate the values on this page on your own! Try running the Python code to see the calculation results. ^{Show the steps to do this.} Step 1: Download and install Python on your computer.

Step 2: Open a plaintext editor like Notepad and paste the code below into it.

Step 3: Save the file as "calculate_correlation.py" in a place you will remember, like your desktop. Copy the file location to your clipboard. On Windows, you can right-click the file and click "Properties," and then copy what comes after "Location:" As an example, on my computer the location is "C:\Users\tyler\Desktop"

Step 4: Open a command line window. For example, by pressing start and typing "cmd" and them pressing enter.

Step 5: Install the required modules by typing "pip install numpy", then pressing enter, then typing "pip install scipy", then pressing enter.

Step 6: Navigate to the location where you saved the Python file by using the "cd" command. For example, I would type "cd C:\Users\tyler\Desktop" and push enter.

Step 7: Run the Python script by typing "python calculate_correlation.py"

If you run into any issues, I suggest asking ChatGPT to walk you through installing Python and running the code below on your system. Try this question:

"Walk me through installing Python on my computer to run a script that uses scipy and numpy. Go step-by-step and ask me to confirm before moving on. Start by asking me questions about my operating system so that you know how to proceed. Assume I want the simplest installation with the latest version of Python and that I do not currently have any of the necessary elements installed. Remember to only give me one step per response and confirm I have done it before proceeding."

# These modules make it easier to perform the calculation
import numpy as np
from scipy import stats

# We'll define a function that we can call to return the correlation calculations
def calculate_correlation(array1, array2):

    # Calculate Pearson correlation coefficient and p-value
    correlation, p_value = stats.pearsonr(array1, array2)

    # Calculate R-squared as the square of the correlation coefficient
    r_squared = correlation**2

    return correlation, r_squared, p_value

# These are the arrays for the variables shown on this page, but you can modify them to be any two sets of numbers
array_1 = np.array([342,316,366,303,336,343,338,320,327,325,350,309,268,250,258,213,195,190,175,175,194,146,156,134,124,113,117,99,126,130,140,172,171,183,202,180,160,161,149,116,119,120,128,])
array_2 = np.array([44.8087,43.2877,49.0411,51.2329,44.8087,37.5342,45.4795,39.6552,39.4521,37.5,43.2507,41.7582,51.9231,40.0552,36.7403,32.5069,35.0427,26.1111,27.9006,23.3227,15.7377,20,17.7632,13.871,13.0293,16.8317,16.2338,11.2903,11.5385,22.865,21.3699,23.2877,30.3279,22.1918,32.6027,27.6712,31.4208,21.6438,19.726,28.2192,10.929,19.726,16.7123,])
array_1_name = "Popularity of the first name Gerard"
array_2_name = "Air pollution in Anchorage"

# Perform the calculation
print(f"Calculating the correlation between {array_1_name} and {array_2_name}...")
correlation, r_squared, p_value = calculate_correlation(array_1, array_2)

# Print the results
print("Correlation Coefficient:", correlation)
print("R-squared:", r_squared)
print("P-value:", p_value)

Reuseable content

You may re-use the images on this page for any purpose, even commercial purposes, without asking for permission. The only requirement is that you attribute Tyler Vigen. ^Note Attribution can take many different forms. If you leave the "tylervigen.com" link in the image, that satisfies it just fine. If you remove it and move it to a footnote, that's fine too. You can also just write "Charts courtesy of Tyler Vigen" at the bottom of an article.

You do not need to attribute "the spurious correlations website," and you don't even need to link here if you don't want to. I don't gain anything from pageviews. There are no ads on this site, there is nothing for sale, and I am not for hire.

For the record, I am just one person. Tyler Vigen, he/him/his. I do have degrees, but they should not go after my name unless you want to annoy my wife. If that is your goal, then go ahead and cite me as "Tyler Vigen, A.A. A.A.S. B.A. J.D." Otherwise it is just "Tyler Vigen."

When spoken, my last name is pronounced "vegan," like I don't eat meat.

Full license details.
For more on re-use permissions, or to get a signed release form, see tylervigen.com/permission.

Download images for these variables:

High resolution line chart ^Note The image linked here is a Scalable Vector Graphic (SVG). It is the highest resolution that is possible to achieve. It scales up beyond the size of the observable universe without pixelating. You do not need to email me asking if I have a higher resolution image. I do not. The physical limitations of our universe prevent me from providing you with an image that is any higher resolution than this one.

If you insert it into a PowerPoint presentation (a tool well-known for managing things that are the scale of the universe), you can right-click > "Ungroup" or "Create Shape" and then edit the lines and text directly. You can also change the colors this way.

Alternatively you can use a tool like Inkscape.
High resolution line chart, optimized for mobile
Alternative high resolution line chart
Scatterplot
Portable line chart (png)
Portable line chart (png), optimized for mobile
Line chart for only Popularity of the first name Gerard
Line chart for only Air pollution in Anchorage
AI-generated correlation image
The spurious research paper: Clear Air, Gerard's Flair: A Tale of Anchorage's Name and Air

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Correlation ID: 2018 · Black Variable ID: 3690 · Red Variable ID: 20265


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