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Spurious correlation #1,322 · View random

A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is Lionel Messi's match count with Argentina and the second variable is The number of middle school special education teachers in Vermont.  The chart goes from 2005 to 2022, and the two variables track closely in value over that time. Small Image
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AI explanation

As Lionel Messi's match count with Argentina goes up, there is a simultaneous rise in the level of soccer excitement worldwide. This heightened interest leads to an unexpected spike in the number of students trying out for their school soccer teams. As more kids join the soccer teams, the demand for coaches and referees skyrockets. Desperate for qualified individuals to lead the teams, schools start offering lucrative coaching positions. Seeing these opportunities, people from all walks of life, including middle school special education teachers in Vermont, begin to pursue coaching as a side gig, leading to an increase in the overall number of middle school special education teachers in Vermont. Who would have thought that Messi's on-field success would indirectly impact the educational landscape of Vermont?

Model: dalle-3
Prompt: [ A photo-realistic image ] In this scene, imagine a soccer field bathed in the warm glow of sunset, with the lush green grass providing the perfect canvas for an extraordinary sight. In the center of the field, a soccer ball adorned with the unmistakable face of Lionel Messi sits, exuding an air of anticipation. As the ball is kicked into motion, people from all walks of life begin to join the game. Amidst the eager participants, several figures clad in teacher uniforms bring an unexpected yet delightful energy to the game. Their beaming smiles and animated conversations convey the joy they are experiencing. Each teacher demonstrates an impressive level of skill, effortlessly maneuvering the ball with the same finesse as Messi himself. As more teachers join the game, the field becomes a vibrant display of diverse individuals, each adding their own unique twist to the play. The scene encapsulates the inspiration and fervor that Messi's mastery has ignited in these educators, as they infuse their own fields with creativity and passion. The depiction should include only scenes, people, and objects, it should not include text or speech bubbles.
This image generation prompt was also generated by AI, using the following sequence:

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You select one of a few potential scene descriptors that seems to go along with the situation described. You respond only with the scene descriptions provided and say nothing else.
User prompt: Here is a situation: Because as Lionel Messi's match count with Argentina increased, more and more people were inspired to pursue their passions, leading to an influx of middle school special education teachers in Vermont. Messi's skillful footwork and strategic plays taught people to think outside the box, just like those teachers who have to use creative methods to educate their students. Plus, Messi's ability to handle pressure encouraged individuals to handle the high-pressure demands of special education. So, as Messi's match count rose, so did the number of compassionate educators ready to tackle any curveball that comes their way!. Given that situation, which of the following image descriptions seems most appropriate? Pick the one that seems to be related to one of the variables at hand and the tone of the explanation. Please respond with only one of the following potential descriptions: An image that looks like it is a scene from a Pixar movie Sci-fi fantacy Futuristic A photo-realistic image Parallax art
ChatGPT: A photo-realistic image

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You describe simple visual scenes that depict the two variables stated and the explanation described. Do not reference graphs or charts; describe physical objects.
User prompt: Please describe a visual scene that depicts the following situation. Keep the description simple. Because as Lionel Messi's match count with Argentina increased, more and more people were inspired to pursue their passions, leading to an influx of middle school special education teachers in Vermont. Messi's skillful footwork and strategic plays taught people to think outside the box, just like those teachers who have to use creative methods to educate their students. Plus, Messi's ability to handle pressure encouraged individuals to handle the high-pressure demands of special education. So, as Messi's match count rose, so did the number of compassionate educators ready to tackle any curveball that comes their way!
ChatGPT: Imagine a soccer ball with Lionel Messi's face on it sitting on a field. As the ball is kicked around, more and more people, from all walks of life, start to join in the game. Among the new players are several individuals wearing teacher uniforms, each with a big smile on their face. They're laughing and chatting with each other as they play, and they seem just as skilled as Messi in navigating the ball around the field. As the game continues, more and more teachers join in, each one adding their unique flair to their movements and strategies. It's clear that they've all been inspired by Messi's skillful play and are ready to bring that same level of passion and creativity to their own pursuits.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You write and improve image generation prompts for DALLE-3. You maintain the same subjects, but enhance the visuals.
User prompt: Please respond with an image generation prompt that would be likely to create an interesting visual using DALLE-3, using the following style: [ A photo-realistic image ] and depicting this scene: Imagine a soccer ball with Lionel Messi's face on it sitting on a field. As the ball is kicked around, more and more people, from all walks of life, start to join in the game. Among the new players are several individuals wearing teacher uniforms, each with a big smile on their face. They're laughing and chatting with each other as they play, and they seem just as skilled as Messi in navigating the ball around the field. As the game continues, more and more teachers join in, each one adding their unique flair to their movements and strategies. It's clear that they've all been inspired by Messi's skillful play and are ready to bring that same level of passion and creativity to their own pursuits. Keep the visual depiction simple. Do not include any words or speech bubbles.
ChatGPT: [ A photo-realistic image ] In this scene, imagine a soccer field bathed in the warm glow of sunset, with the lush green grass providing the perfect canvas for an extraordinary sight. In the center of the field, a soccer ball adorned with the unmistakable face of Lionel Messi sits, exuding an air of anticipation. As the ball is kicked into motion, people from all walks of life begin to join the game. Amidst the eager participants, several figures clad in teacher uniforms bring an unexpected yet delightful energy to the game. Their beaming smiles and animated conversations convey the joy they are experiencing. Each teacher demonstrates an impressive level of skill, effortlessly maneuvering the ball with the same finesse as Messi himself. As more teachers join the game, the field becomes a vibrant display of diverse individuals, each adding their own unique twist to the play. The scene encapsulates the inspiration and fervor that Messi's mastery has ignited in these educators, as they infuse their own fields with creativity and passion.

*Variations in the User Prompts from chart to chart are just the result of random number generation in Python. I wrote a few arrays of various styles and methods to ask questions to change up the results. Every time this site writes an explanation or generates an image, the script picks from each at random.

I sequence the requests into multiple prompts because I find GPT 3.5 to perform much better with short, well-managed contexts. Thus, I track the context directly in Python and only ask ChatGPT targeted questions.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106 (fine-tuned)
System prompt: You provide humorous responses in the form of plausible sounding explanations for correlations. You assume the correlation is causative for the purpose of the explanation even if it is ridiculous. You do not chat with the user, you only reply with the causal connection explanation and nothing else.
User prompt: Please make up a funny explanation for how an increase in Lionel Messi's match count with Argentina caused The number of middle school special education teachers in Vermont to increase.\Make it sound serious until the end.

AI academic paper

(Because p < 0.01)
Kickin' the Stats: Exploring the Unlikely Link Between Lionel Messi's Match Count with Argentina and the Number of Middle School Special Education Teachers in Vermont

The Journal of Sports Statistics and Unlikely Correlations

Jan 2024

Reminder: This paper is AI-generated. Not real!
Quick note: This sequence is long and repetitive. That's how the prompt engineering works for this one. I manage the output in Python to format it into this PDF.




Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a witty academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a statistics journal.You write titles and abstracts of goofy academic research papers.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, and add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please draft the title and abstract of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Lionel Messi's match count with Argentina and The number of middle school special education teachers in Vermont. Make lots of jokes, goofy observations, and puns.

Make the title seem clever.

Your research team used data from Wikipedia and Bureau of Larbor Statistics to assess this nagging question. You found a correlation coefficient of 0.8454734 and p < 0.01 for 2005 to 2022.

Please respond in this format (replace "Lorem ipsum dolor sit" with your title and abstract)

[[TITLE]]
Lorem ipsum dolor sit

[[ABSTRACT]]
Lorem ipsum dolor sit



ChatGPT:
[[TITLE]]
Kickin' the Stats: Exploring the Unlikely Link Between Lionel Messi's Match Count with Argentina and the Number of Middle School Special Education Teachers in Vermont

[[ABSTRACT]]
As Lionel Messi dazzles on the soccer field, a team of analysts delves into the world of obscure correlations, seeking out the unexpected and the entertaining. This study delves into the curious connection between the number of times Messi has taken the field for Argentina and the population of middle school special education teachers in the quaint state of Vermont. Utilizing data from Wikipedia and the Bureau of Labor Statistics, our team applied advanced statistical methods to unravel this bizarre link. With a correlation coefficient of 0.8454734 and p < 0.01 for the years 2005 to 2022, our findings reveal a surprisingly robust relationship between Messi's stellar performances and the education landscape in the Green Mountain State. Expect to be amused and enlightened as we delve into the delightful intersection of sports and education.


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a witty academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a statistics journal.You draft the introduction section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the introduction section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Lionel Messi's match count with Argentina and The number of middle school special education teachers in Vermont. Make lots of jokes, goofy observations, and puns. Sneak in some jokes and clever puns about science, research, statistics, and the variables.

Here is the title and abstract of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
Kickin' the Stats: Exploring the Unlikely Link Between Lionel Messi's Match Count with Argentina and the Number of Middle School Special Education Teachers in Vermont

[[ABSTRACT]]
As Lionel Messi dazzles on the soccer field, a team of analysts delves into the world of obscure correlations, seeking out the unexpected and the entertaining. This study delves into the curious connection between the number of times Messi has taken the field for Argentina and the population of middle school special education teachers in the quaint state of Vermont. Utilizing data from Wikipedia and the Bureau of Labor Statistics, our team applied advanced statistical methods to unravel this bizarre link. With a correlation coefficient of 0.8454734 and p < 0.01 for the years 2005 to 2022, our findings reveal a surprisingly robust relationship between Messi's stellar performances and the education landscape in the Green Mountain State. Expect to be amused and enlightened as we delve into the delightful intersection of sports and education.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[INTRODUCTION]]



ChatGPT:
[[INTRODUCTION]]

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the wacky world of statistical anomalies and unexpected connections. In the realm of academic research, we often uncover relationships that are as surprising as finding a unicorn playing chess with a leprechaun.

In this study, we embark on a journey that defies convention, as we explore the peculiar interplay between Lionel Messi's match count with Argentina and the number of middle school special education teachers in the picturesque state of Vermont. Now, you might be thinking, "What on earth could a football superstar possibly have to do with the educational workforce in the Green Mountain State?" Well, get ready to have your data-driven minds blown!

Picture this: the hustle and bustle of Messi's footwork on the soccer pitch appears to have a curious parallel to the trends in Vermont's special education teaching landscape. It's as if the ebb and flow of Messi's game-time appearances sent ripples across the tranquil hills of Vermont, shaping the very fabric of its education system. If that doesn't make you raise an eyebrow in bewilderment, then we'll need to concoct a potion that injects a dose of statistical intrigue into your veins!

As we delve into this peculiar nexus of soccer stardom and educational labor, rest assured that we approach this investigation with all the rigor and meticulousness that one would expect from a team of researchers. With our trusty statistical tools in hand, we sought to dissect, analyze, and make sense of the seemingly nonsensical. Harnessing the power of correlation coefficients, p-values, and regression analyses, we navigated the labyrinth of data in pursuit of the truth behind this unlikely relationship.

Prepare yourselves, dear readers, for an exhilarating ride through the uncharted territory of unanticipated statistical associations. The findings that await you are as thrilling as stumbling upon a treasure map in a game of mathematical pirates. So, fasten your seatbelts and get ready to be whisked away to a realm where Lionel Messi's goals and Vermont's education converge in a symphony of statistical splendor. Hold onto your hypothesis hats, because it's going to be an electrifying journey!


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a witty academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a statistics journal.You draft a literature review section of an academic research paper, that starts out dry for the first few sentences but then becomes hilarious and goofy.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up a literature review section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Lionel Messi's match count with Argentina and The number of middle school special education teachers in Vermont. Make lots of jokes, goofy observations, and puns.

Speak in the present tense for this section (the authors find...), as is common in academic research paper literature reviews. Name the sources in a format similar to this: In "Book," the authors find lorem and ipsum.

Make up the lorem and ipsum part, but make it sound related to the topic at hand.

Start by naming serious-sounding studies by authors like Smith, Doe, and Jones - but then quickly devolve. Name some real non-fiction books that would be related to the topic. Then name some real fiction books that sound like they could be related. Then name some movies that you watched that are tangentially related to the topic.

Here is the title and abstract of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
Kickin' the Stats: Exploring the Unlikely Link Between Lionel Messi's Match Count with Argentina and the Number of Middle School Special Education Teachers in Vermont

[[ABSTRACT]]
As Lionel Messi dazzles on the soccer field, a team of analysts delves into the world of obscure correlations, seeking out the unexpected and the entertaining. This study delves into the curious connection between the number of times Messi has taken the field for Argentina and the population of middle school special education teachers in the quaint state of Vermont. Utilizing data from Wikipedia and the Bureau of Labor Statistics, our team applied advanced statistical methods to unravel this bizarre link. With a correlation coefficient of 0.8454734 and p < 0.01 for the years 2005 to 2022, our findings reveal a surprisingly robust relationship between Messi's stellar performances and the education landscape in the Green Mountain State. Expect to be amused and enlightened as we delve into the delightful intersection of sports and education.

-------

And here is the introduction section that led to this literature review:
[[INTRODUCTION]]
Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the wacky world of statistical anomalies and unexpected connections. In the realm of academic research, we often uncover relationships that are as surprising as finding a unicorn playing chess with a leprechaun.
In this study, we embark on a journey that defies convention, as we explore the peculiar interplay between Lionel Messi's match count with Argentina and the number of middle school special education teachers in the picturesque state of Vermont. Now, you might be thinking, "What on earth could a football superstar possibly have to do with the educational workforce in the Green Mountain State?" Well, get ready to have your data-driven minds blown!
Picture this: the hustle and bustle of Messi's footwork on the soccer pitch appears to have a curious parallel to the trends in Vermont's special education teaching landscape. It's as if the ebb and flow of Messi's game-time appearances sent ripples across the tranquil hills of Vermont, shaping the very fabric of its education system. If that doesn't make you raise an eyebrow in bewilderment, then we'll need to concoct a potion that injects a dose of statistical intrigue into your veins!
As we delve into this peculiar nexus of soccer stardom and educational labor, rest assured that we approach this investigation with all the rigor and meticulousness that one would expect from a team of researchers. With our trusty statistical tools in hand, we sought to dissect, analyze, and make sense of the seemingly nonsensical. Harnessing the power of correlation coefficients, p-values, and regression analyses, we navigated the labyrinth of data in pursuit of the truth behind this unlikely relationship.
Prepare yourselves, dear readers, for an exhilarating ride through the uncharted territory of unanticipated statistical associations. The findings that await you are as thrilling as stumbling upon a treasure map in a game of mathematical pirates. So, fasten your seatbelts and get ready to be whisked away to a realm where Lionel Messi's goals and Vermont's education converge in a symphony of statistical splendor. Hold onto your hypothesis hats, because it's going to be an electrifying journey!

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]



ChatGPT:
[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]

In "Statistical Anomalies in Unlikely Places" by Smith et al., the authors find no mention of the curious connection between Lionel Messi's match count with Argentina and the number of middle school special education teachers in Vermont. Similarly, in "Unusual Correlations: From A to Z" by Doe, the authors fail to address this peculiar intersection of athletic prowess and educational demographics. Compounding this absence, Jones explores statistical anomalies in various contexts, but mysteriously omits the mesmerizing correlation we are about to unravel.

Turning to the world of non-fiction, "The Soccer Champion's Impact on Education" by Expert Analyst delves into the intricate links between sports performance and educational systems. Alas, while this book makes for riveting reading, it regrettably overlooks the specific connection we are investigating. On a lighter note, "Kickin' It: Soccer Superstars and Educational Ecosystems" by Futbol Ph.D., though fictitious, promises an in-depth exploration of our subject matter. Meanwhile, "The Educator's Playbook: Lessons from the Soccer Field" by Sporty Scholar offers a unique perspective, with fictional anecdotes that almost shed light on our correlation, if one squints and turns the book sideways.

In a parallel universe where movies and academic research collide, "The Statistical Shuffle: A Soccer Story" illustrates the struggles of a soccer analyst attempting to comprehend the inexplicable relationship between Lionel Messi's game count and Vermont's special education teachers, set against a backdrop of dramatic music and perplexed looks. This cinematic masterpiece, while not grounded in real-world data, provides a whimsical portrayal of the challenges we face in unraveling this statistical enigma.

As we journey through the literature and beyond, we find ourselves on the brink of an exhilarating revelation: the nexus of Messi's athletic prowess and Vermont's educational landscape is a tantalizing puzzle waiting to be solved, and we are the sleuths armed with formulas and wit to crack the code. So, grab your calculators, put on your thinking caps, and get ready for a statistical rollercoaster ride that will leave you cheering for both Messi's goals and Vermont's teaching heroes.


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a witty academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a statistics journal.You draft the methodology section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the methodology section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Lionel Messi's match count with Argentina and The number of middle school special education teachers in Vermont. Make lots of jokes, goofy observations, and puns. Sneak in some jokes and clever puns about science, research, statistics, and the variables.

Your research team collected data from all across the internet, but mostly just used information from Wikipedia and Bureau of Larbor Statistics . You used data from 2005 to 2022

Make up the research methods you don't know. Make them a bit goofy and convoluted.

Here is the title, abstract, and introduction of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
Kickin' the Stats: Exploring the Unlikely Link Between Lionel Messi's Match Count with Argentina and the Number of Middle School Special Education Teachers in Vermont

[[ABSTRACT]]
As Lionel Messi dazzles on the soccer field, a team of analysts delves into the world of obscure correlations, seeking out the unexpected and the entertaining. This study delves into the curious connection between the number of times Messi has taken the field for Argentina and the population of middle school special education teachers in the quaint state of Vermont. Utilizing data from Wikipedia and the Bureau of Labor Statistics, our team applied advanced statistical methods to unravel this bizarre link. With a correlation coefficient of 0.8454734 and p < 0.01 for the years 2005 to 2022, our findings reveal a surprisingly robust relationship between Messi's stellar performances and the education landscape in the Green Mountain State. Expect to be amused and enlightened as we delve into the delightful intersection of sports and education.

[[INTRODUCTION]]
Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the wacky world of statistical anomalies and unexpected connections. In the realm of academic research, we often uncover relationships that are as surprising as finding a unicorn playing chess with a leprechaun.
In this study, we embark on a journey that defies convention, as we explore the peculiar interplay between Lionel Messi's match count with Argentina and the number of middle school special education teachers in the picturesque state of Vermont. Now, you might be thinking, "What on earth could a football superstar possibly have to do with the educational workforce in the Green Mountain State?" Well, get ready to have your data-driven minds blown!
Picture this: the hustle and bustle of Messi's footwork on the soccer pitch appears to have a curious parallel to the trends in Vermont's special education teaching landscape. It's as if the ebb and flow of Messi's game-time appearances sent ripples across the tranquil hills of Vermont, shaping the very fabric of its education system. If that doesn't make you raise an eyebrow in bewilderment, then we'll need to concoct a potion that injects a dose of statistical intrigue into your veins!
As we delve into this peculiar nexus of soccer stardom and educational labor, rest assured that we approach this investigation with all the rigor and meticulousness that one would expect from a team of researchers. With our trusty statistical tools in hand, we sought to dissect, analyze, and make sense of the seemingly nonsensical. Harnessing the power of correlation coefficients, p-values, and regression analyses, we navigated the labyrinth of data in pursuit of the truth behind this unlikely relationship.
Prepare yourselves, dear readers, for an exhilarating ride through the uncharted territory of unanticipated statistical associations. The findings that await you are as thrilling as stumbling upon a treasure map in a game of mathematical pirates. So, fasten your seatbelts and get ready to be whisked away to a realm where Lionel Messi's goals and Vermont's education converge in a symphony of statistical splendor. Hold onto your hypothesis hats, because it's going to be an electrifying journey!

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[METHODOLOGY]]



ChatGPT:

[[METHODOLOGY]]

To untangle the enchanting web of correlations between Lionel Messi's match count with Argentina and the number of middle school special education teachers in Vermont, our research team employed an eclectic mix of data collection and analytical methods that could make even the most skilled statistical wizard raise an intrigued eyebrow. Our data collection process involved scouring the vast expanse of the internet, with Wikipedia serving as our trusty treasure trove of Messi's match statistics and the Bureau of Labor Statistics providing us with the delightful details of Vermont's special education teaching workforce.

Now, let's delve into the nitty-gritty of our data analysis concoction. We harnessed the potent powers of time series analysis to detect patterns and trends in Messi's match count over the years, while simultaneously donning our regression analysis capes to explore the potential link with Vermont's middle school special education teacher population. The cocktail of statistical models we swirled and savored included simple linear regression, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modeling, and perhaps a sprinkle of magical machine learning for good measure.

In our pursuit of scientific merriment, we carefully curated the time frame for our analysis, spanning the years 2005 to 2022. This expansive time horizon allowed us to capture the breathtaking crescendos and graceful pirouettes of Messi's career as well as the evolving landscape of special education teaching in the splendid state of Vermont.

Furthermore, to ensure the robustness and reliability of our findings, we conducted sensitivity analyses and validation exercises fit for a statistical carnival. Sensitivity analyses included testing different data transformation methods to showcase the resilience of the observed relationship between Messi's match count and the number of middle school special education teachers. And as for validation, we extended our investigation to include the comparison of our results with alternative statistical models, akin to a captivating dance-off between different methodologies.

In the realm of statistical research, it is paramount to navigate the treacherous waters of confounding variables and spurious correlations, which demanded our vigilant attention throughout this whimsical journey. We diligently accounted for potential confounders such as changes in educational policies and variations in the structure of professional soccer leagues, deploying the fine art of covariate adjustment to preserve the purity of our statistical love story between Messi and Vermont's educational workforce.

In conclusion, our research methodology combined the thrill of statistical exploration with the measured precision of scientific inquiry, resulting in a tapestry of analyses woven with the finest threads of wit, rigor, and academic amusement. Our methods embody the spirit of statistical derring-do, establishing an enchanting tale of correlation discovery that will surely leave your data-craving hearts thoroughly entertained and your statistical senses pleasantly perplexed.


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a witty academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a statistics journal.You draft the results section of an academic research paper. You speak in the past tense (you found...).
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the results section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Lionel Messi's match count with Argentina and The number of middle school special education teachers in Vermont. Make lots of jokes, goofy observations, and puns. Sneak in some jokes and clever puns about science, research, statistics, and the variables.

Your research team collected data from all across the internet, but mostly just used information from Wikipedia and Bureau of Larbor Statistics .

For the time period 2005 to 2022, you found a correlation 0.8454734, r-squared of 0.7148253, and p < 0.01.

One figure will be included. The figure (Fig. 1) is a scatterplot showing the strong correlation between the two variables. You don't need to specify where; I will add the figure.

Here is the title and abstract of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
Kickin' the Stats: Exploring the Unlikely Link Between Lionel Messi's Match Count with Argentina and the Number of Middle School Special Education Teachers in Vermont

[[ABSTRACT]]
As Lionel Messi dazzles on the soccer field, a team of analysts delves into the world of obscure correlations, seeking out the unexpected and the entertaining. This study delves into the curious connection between the number of times Messi has taken the field for Argentina and the population of middle school special education teachers in the quaint state of Vermont. Utilizing data from Wikipedia and the Bureau of Labor Statistics, our team applied advanced statistical methods to unravel this bizarre link. With a correlation coefficient of 0.8454734 and p < 0.01 for the years 2005 to 2022, our findings reveal a surprisingly robust relationship between Messi's stellar performances and the education landscape in the Green Mountain State. Expect to be amused and enlightened as we delve into the delightful intersection of sports and education.

-------

And here is the methodology section that led to this result:
[[METHODOLOGY]]
Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the wacky world of statistical anomalies and unexpected connections. In the realm of academic research, we often uncover relationships that are as surprising as finding a unicorn playing chess with a leprechaun.
In this study, we embark on a journey that defies convention, as we explore the peculiar interplay between Lionel Messi's match count with Argentina and the number of middle school special education teachers in the picturesque state of Vermont. Now, you might be thinking, "What on earth could a football superstar possibly have to do with the educational workforce in the Green Mountain State?" Well, get ready to have your data-driven minds blown!
Picture this: the hustle and bustle of Messi's footwork on the soccer pitch appears to have a curious parallel to the trends in Vermont's special education teaching landscape. It's as if the ebb and flow of Messi's game-time appearances sent ripples across the tranquil hills of Vermont, shaping the very fabric of its education system. If that doesn't make you raise an eyebrow in bewilderment, then we'll need to concoct a potion that injects a dose of statistical intrigue into your veins!
As we delve into this peculiar nexus of soccer stardom and educational labor, rest assured that we approach this investigation with all the rigor and meticulousness that one would expect from a team of researchers. With our trusty statistical tools in hand, we sought to dissect, analyze, and make sense of the seemingly nonsensical. Harnessing the power of correlation coefficients, p-values, and regression analyses, we navigated the labyrinth of data in pursuit of the truth behind this unlikely relationship.
Prepare yourselves, dear readers, for an exhilarating ride through the uncharted territory of unanticipated statistical associations. The findings that await you are as thrilling as stumbling upon a treasure map in a game of mathematical pirates. So, fasten your seatbelts and get ready to be whisked away to a realm where Lionel Messi's goals and Vermont's education converge in a symphony of statistical splendor. Hold onto your hypothesis hats, because it's going to be an electrifying journey!

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[RESULTS]]



ChatGPT:

[[RESULTS]]

The results of our analysis uncovered a remarkable correlation between Lionel Messi's match count with Argentina and the number of middle school special education teachers in Vermont. The correlation coefficient of 0.8454734 suggests a strong positive relationship between these seemingly unrelated variables. This finding blows the whistle on any doubts about the potential connection between a football legend's exploits and the educational landscape in a serene state.

Our regression analysis further bolstered these findings with an r-squared value of 0.7148253. This indicates that approximately 71.5% of the variation in the number of middle school special education teachers in Vermont can be explained by Lionel Messi's match count with Argentina. It's as if Messi's goals are echoing through the lush Green Mountain State, prompting a harmonious dance in the educational workforce.

In the world of statistics, a p-value of less than 0.01 adds an exclamation point to our findings, signaling that this correlation is not a mere fluke. It's like scoring a winning goal in the 90th minute of a research match, affirming the significance of this unexpected relationship.

To visually showcase this intriguing association, we present Figure 1, a scatterplot that graphically illustrates the strong correlation between Lionel Messi's match count with Argentina and the number of middle school special education teachers in Vermont. Prepare to be dazzled as you witness the mesmerizing dance of data points, twirling and pirouetting in perfect statistical harmony.

In conclusion, these findings add a fascinating dimension to the expanse of statistical oddities, proving that even in the world of research, unexpected connections can emerge from the unlikeliest of places. So, as we unpack the baffling interplay between soccer prowess and educational staffing, it becomes evident that in the realm of statistics, truth is indeed stranger than fiction.


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a witty academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a statistics journal.You draft the discussion section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the discussion section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Lionel Messi's match count with Argentina and The number of middle school special education teachers in Vermont. Make lots of jokes, goofy observations, and puns. Sneak in some jokes and clever puns about science, research, statistics, and the variables.

Limit your response to 500 tokens.

Here are the title, abstract, literature review, and results sections. Please harken back to 1-2 of the goofy items in the literature review, but pretend to take them completely seriously. Discuss how your results supported the prior research.

Do not write a conclusion. I will add a conclusion after this.

[[TITLE]]
Kickin' the Stats: Exploring the Unlikely Link Between Lionel Messi's Match Count with Argentina and the Number of Middle School Special Education Teachers in Vermont

[[ABSTRACT]]
As Lionel Messi dazzles on the soccer field, a team of analysts delves into the world of obscure correlations, seeking out the unexpected and the entertaining. This study delves into the curious connection between the number of times Messi has taken the field for Argentina and the population of middle school special education teachers in the quaint state of Vermont. Utilizing data from Wikipedia and the Bureau of Labor Statistics, our team applied advanced statistical methods to unravel this bizarre link. With a correlation coefficient of 0.8454734 and p < 0.01 for the years 2005 to 2022, our findings reveal a surprisingly robust relationship between Messi's stellar performances and the education landscape in the Green Mountain State. Expect to be amused and enlightened as we delve into the delightful intersection of sports and education.

[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]
In "Statistical Anomalies in Unlikely Places" by Smith et al., the authors find no mention of the curious connection between Lionel Messi's match count with Argentina and the number of middle school special education teachers in Vermont. Similarly, in "Unusual Correlations: From A to Z" by Doe, the authors fail to address this peculiar intersection of athletic prowess and educational demographics. Compounding this absence, Jones explores statistical anomalies in various contexts, but mysteriously omits the mesmerizing correlation we are about to unravel.
Turning to the world of non-fiction, "The Soccer Champion's Impact on Education" by Expert Analyst delves into the intricate links between sports performance and educational systems. Alas, while this book makes for riveting reading, it regrettably overlooks the specific connection we are investigating. On a lighter note, "Kickin' It: Soccer Superstars and Educational Ecosystems" by Futbol Ph.D., though fictitious, promises an in-depth exploration of our subject matter. Meanwhile, "The Educator's Playbook: Lessons from the Soccer Field" by Sporty Scholar offers a unique perspective, with fictional anecdotes that almost shed light on our correlation, if one squints and turns the book sideways.
In a parallel universe where movies and academic research collide, "The Statistical Shuffle: A Soccer Story" illustrates the struggles of a soccer analyst attempting to comprehend the inexplicable relationship between Lionel Messi's game count and Vermont's special education teachers, set against a backdrop of dramatic music and perplexed looks. This cinematic masterpiece, while not grounded in real-world data, provides a whimsical portrayal of the challenges we face in unraveling this statistical enigma.
As we journey through the literature and beyond, we find ourselves on the brink of an exhilarating revelation: the nexus of Messi's athletic prowess and Vermont's educational landscape is a tantalizing puzzle waiting to be solved, and we are the sleuths armed with formulas and wit to crack the code. So, grab your calculators, put on your thinking caps, and get ready for a statistical rollercoaster ride that will leave you cheering for both Messi's goals and Vermont's teaching heroes.

[[RESULTS]]
The results of our analysis uncovered a remarkable correlation between Lionel Messi's match count with Argentina and the number of middle school special education teachers in Vermont. The correlation coefficient of 0.8454734 suggests a strong positive relationship between these seemingly unrelated variables. This finding blows the whistle on any doubts about the potential connection between a football legend's exploits and the educational landscape in a serene state.
Our regression analysis further bolstered these findings with an r-squared value of 0.7148253. This indicates that approximately 71.5% of the variation in the number of middle school special education teachers in Vermont can be explained by Lionel Messi's match count with Argentina. It's as if Messi's goals are echoing through the lush Green Mountain State, prompting a harmonious dance in the educational workforce.
In the world of statistics, a p-value of less than 0.01 adds an exclamation point to our findings, signaling that this correlation is not a mere fluke. It's like scoring a winning goal in the 90th minute of a research match, affirming the significance of this unexpected relationship.
To visually showcase this intriguing association, we present Figure 1, a scatterplot that graphically illustrates the strong correlation between Lionel Messi's match count with Argentina and the number of middle school special education teachers in Vermont. Prepare to be dazzled as you witness the mesmerizing dance of data points, twirling and pirouetting in perfect statistical harmony.
In conclusion, these findings add a fascinating dimension to the expanse of statistical oddities, proving that even in the world of research, unexpected connections can emerge from the unlikeliest of places. So, as we unpack the baffling interplay between soccer prowess and educational staffing, it becomes evident that in the realm of statistics, truth is indeed stranger than fiction.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[DISCUSSION]]



ChatGPT:

[[DISCUSSION]]

The riveting revelation of a robust correlation between Lionel Messi's match count with Argentina and the number of middle school special education teachers in Vermont sends shockwaves through the realm of statistical oddities. Our results echoed the sentiments put forth by Smith et al., who may have inadvertently overlooked this unexpected association in their pursuit of statistical anomalies. Similarly, Doe's failure to address this bizarre link in their exploration of unlikely correlations becomes a poignant reminder of the surprising discoveries that can emerge when we least expect them.

As we reflect on the lighthearted literary works surrounding our tantalizing correlation, we find a certain sense of kinship with "The Statistical Shuffle: A Soccer Story." While fictional, this celluloid portrayal humorously captures the befuddlement often encountered in unravelling statistical mysteries. It serves as a gentle reminder that our journey into the unexpected can unfold in a manner that is both comedic and enlightening.

The robust correlation coefficient of 0.8454734 aligns with the expectations set forth by Expert Analyst in "The Soccer Champion's Impact on Education." The slightly whimsical, nearly fictional "Kickin' It: Soccer Superstars and Educational Ecosystems" by Futbol Ph.D., though not grounded in data, manages to capture a fraction of the very correlation we have laid bare. These unexpected parallels, while faint, provide a fitting backdrop to our unabashed unveiling of this statistical enigma.

Our regression analysis, with its r-squared value affirming the explanation of approximately 71.5% of the variation in the number of middle school special education teachers in Vermont by Lionel Messi's match count with Argentina, stands as a testament to the unexpected delights that can emerge from rigorous statistical scrutiny. This finding may likely prompt a wry smile from Sporty Scholar, as it embodies the fictional anecdotes of their undeniably unique perspective.

The significance of the correlation is further underscored by the p-value of less than 0.01, akin to a last-minute breakthrough in the research arena. This statistical triumph adds a whimsical touch to our solemn pursuit of knowledge, serving as a testament to the unexpected joys that can sprout from the most unlikely statistical soil.

In essence, our findings add a charming twist to the realm of research, imbuing it with an air of delightful unpredictability. As we tie together the threads of soccer prowess and educational staffing, we witness the emergence of an unexpected truth that firmly establishes that in the symphony of statistics, even the most unlikely duet can produce a harmonious melody.


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a witty academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a statistics journal.You draft the discussion section of goofy academic research papers that sounds like it belongs based on the title and abstract provided.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up a short conclusion of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Lionel Messi's match count with Argentina and The number of middle school special education teachers in Vermont. Make lots of jokes, goofy observations, and puns. Sneak in some jokes and clever puns about science, research, statistics, and the variables.

Limit your response to 300 tokens. At the very end, assert that no more research is needed in this area.

Here are the title, abstract, introduction, and results sections.
[[TITLE]]
Kickin' the Stats: Exploring the Unlikely Link Between Lionel Messi's Match Count with Argentina and the Number of Middle School Special Education Teachers in Vermont

[[ABSTRACT]]
As Lionel Messi dazzles on the soccer field, a team of analysts delves into the world of obscure correlations, seeking out the unexpected and the entertaining. This study delves into the curious connection between the number of times Messi has taken the field for Argentina and the population of middle school special education teachers in the quaint state of Vermont. Utilizing data from Wikipedia and the Bureau of Labor Statistics, our team applied advanced statistical methods to unravel this bizarre link. With a correlation coefficient of 0.8454734 and p < 0.01 for the years 2005 to 2022, our findings reveal a surprisingly robust relationship between Messi's stellar performances and the education landscape in the Green Mountain State. Expect to be amused and enlightened as we delve into the delightful intersection of sports and education.

[[INTRDUCTION]]
Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the wacky world of statistical anomalies and unexpected connections. In the realm of academic research, we often uncover relationships that are as surprising as finding a unicorn playing chess with a leprechaun.
In this study, we embark on a journey that defies convention, as we explore the peculiar interplay between Lionel Messi's match count with Argentina and the number of middle school special education teachers in the picturesque state of Vermont. Now, you might be thinking, "What on earth could a football superstar possibly have to do with the educational workforce in the Green Mountain State?" Well, get ready to have your data-driven minds blown!
Picture this: the hustle and bustle of Messi's footwork on the soccer pitch appears to have a curious parallel to the trends in Vermont's special education teaching landscape. It's as if the ebb and flow of Messi's game-time appearances sent ripples across the tranquil hills of Vermont, shaping the very fabric of its education system. If that doesn't make you raise an eyebrow in bewilderment, then we'll need to concoct a potion that injects a dose of statistical intrigue into your veins!
As we delve into this peculiar nexus of soccer stardom and educational labor, rest assured that we approach this investigation with all the rigor and meticulousness that one would expect from a team of researchers. With our trusty statistical tools in hand, we sought to dissect, analyze, and make sense of the seemingly nonsensical. Harnessing the power of correlation coefficients, p-values, and regression analyses, we navigated the labyrinth of data in pursuit of the truth behind this unlikely relationship.
Prepare yourselves, dear readers, for an exhilarating ride through the uncharted territory of unanticipated statistical associations. The findings that await you are as thrilling as stumbling upon a treasure map in a game of mathematical pirates. So, fasten your seatbelts and get ready to be whisked away to a realm where Lionel Messi's goals and Vermont's education converge in a symphony of statistical splendor. Hold onto your hypothesis hats, because it's going to be an electrifying journey!

[[RESULTS]]
The results of our analysis uncovered a remarkable correlation between Lionel Messi's match count with Argentina and the number of middle school special education teachers in Vermont. The correlation coefficient of 0.8454734 suggests a strong positive relationship between these seemingly unrelated variables. This finding blows the whistle on any doubts about the potential connection between a football legend's exploits and the educational landscape in a serene state.
Our regression analysis further bolstered these findings with an r-squared value of 0.7148253. This indicates that approximately 71.5% of the variation in the number of middle school special education teachers in Vermont can be explained by Lionel Messi's match count with Argentina. It's as if Messi's goals are echoing through the lush Green Mountain State, prompting a harmonious dance in the educational workforce.
In the world of statistics, a p-value of less than 0.01 adds an exclamation point to our findings, signaling that this correlation is not a mere fluke. It's like scoring a winning goal in the 90th minute of a research match, affirming the significance of this unexpected relationship.
To visually showcase this intriguing association, we present Figure 1, a scatterplot that graphically illustrates the strong correlation between Lionel Messi's match count with Argentina and the number of middle school special education teachers in Vermont. Prepare to be dazzled as you witness the mesmerizing dance of data points, twirling and pirouetting in perfect statistical harmony.
In conclusion, these findings add a fascinating dimension to the expanse of statistical oddities, proving that even in the world of research, unexpected connections can emerge from the unlikeliest of places. So, as we unpack the baffling interplay between soccer prowess and educational staffing, it becomes evident that in the realm of statistics, truth is indeed stranger than fiction.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[CONCLUSION]]



ChatGPT:

[[CONCLUSION]]

In conclusion, it's clear that Lionel Messi's match count with Argentina and the number of middle school special education teachers in Vermont are as linked as a goalkeeper and a net. Our findings have uncovered a correlation that's as strong as Messi's left foot, with a correlation coefficient that could make even the staunchest skeptic do a double take. It's as if Messi's goals on the field translate into goals for educational staffing in the Green Mountain State!

This unexpected association is like finding a hidden gem in a pile of statistical rubble, shining as brightly as Messi's Ballon d'Or trophies. Our regression analysis revealed a surprising r-squared value, indicating that Messi's performances can explain over 70% of the variation in Vermont's educational workforce. It's almost as if Messi's presence on the field inspires a symphony of hiring decisions in Vermont's school districts.

And let's not forget that impressive p-value, signaling that this correlation is about as real as Messi's ability to bend it like Beckham. It's a statistical slam dunk, as conclusive as a referee blowing the final whistle. As for the scatterplot, it's like a Picasso painting of statistical marvel, capturing the enchanting dance between Messi's match count and Vermont's special education teachers.

In the grand scheme of research, this unexpected connection adds a delightful twist to the often-serious world of statistical inquiry. It's like stumbling upon a clown at a physics conference—an unexpected surprise that's as amusing as it is thought-provoking. While this correlation may seem as unlikely as a penguin in the Sahara, the numbers don't lie.

In summary, our journey into the statistical playground of Lionel Messi's match count and Vermont's middle school special education teachers has been as thrilling as a rollercoaster ride through a field of data. However, despite the amusement and fascination this discovery has brought us, it's safe to say that no further research is needed in this area. As they say in the world of sports, it's game, set, and match—statistically speaking!


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide fictional names of academic journals. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide the name of a funny but plausible sounding research, scientific, or academic journal that would publish a paper entited Kickin' the Stats: Exploring the Unlikely Link Between Lionel Messi's Match Count with Argentina and the Number of Middle School Special Education Teachers in Vermont. Respond only with the name of a fictional academic journal.

ChatGPT:

The Journal of Sports Statistics and Unlikely Correlations


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide fictional names of nonprofit research organizations and associations. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide the name of a funny but plausible sounding nonprofit, academic, or scientific association or organization that would sponsor research that resulted in a paper entited Kickin' the Stats: Exploring the Unlikely Link Between Lionel Messi's Match Count with Argentina and the Number of Middle School Special Education Teachers in Vermont. Respond only with the name of a fictional organization.

ChatGPT:

The Center for Soccer Analytics and Educational Policy (CSAEP)


Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide potential search keywords separated by commas. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide potential search keywords for a paper titled Kickin' the Stats: Exploring the Unlikely Link Between Lionel Messi's Match Count with Argentina and the Number of Middle School Special Education Teachers in Vermont with an abstract of As Lionel Messi dazzles on the soccer field, a team of analysts delves into the world of obscure correlations, seeking out the unexpected and the entertaining. This study delves into the curious connection between the number of times Messi has taken the field for Argentina and the population of middle school special education teachers in the quaint state of Vermont. Utilizing data from Wikipedia and the Bureau of Labor Statistics, our team applied advanced statistical methods to unravel this bizarre link. With a correlation coefficient of 0.8454734 and p < 0.01 for the years 2005 to 2022, our findings reveal a surprisingly robust relationship between Messi's stellar performances and the education landscape in the Green Mountain State. Expect to be amused and enlightened as we delve into the delightful intersection of sports and education.

ChatGPT:

Lionel Messi, match count, Argentina, middle school, special education teachers, Vermont, correlation, statistical methods, sports, education, population, data analysis

*There is a bunch of Python happening behind the scenes to turn this prompt sequence into a PDF.



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Data details

Lionel Messi's match count with Argentina
Detailed data title: Lionel Messi's Argentina match count
Source: Wikipedia
See what else correlates with Lionel Messi's match count with Argentina

The number of middle school special education teachers in Vermont
Detailed data title: BLS estimate of special education teachers, middle school in Vermont
Source: Bureau of Larbor Statistics
See what else correlates with The number of middle school special education teachers in Vermont

Correlation r = 0.8454734 (Pearson correlation coefficient)
Correlation is a measure of how much the variables move together. If it is 0.99, when one goes up the other goes up. If it is 0.02, the connection is very weak or non-existent. If it is -0.99, then when one goes up the other goes down. If it is 1.00, you probably messed up your correlation function.

r2 = 0.7148253 (Coefficient of determination)
This means 71.5% of the change in the one variable (i.e., The number of middle school special education teachers in Vermont) is predictable based on the change in the other (i.e., Lionel Messi's match count with Argentina) over the 18 years from 2005 through 2022.

p < 0.01, which is statistically significant(Null hypothesis significance test)
The p-value is 9.9E-6. 0.0000099470392686801800000000
The p-value is a measure of how probable it is that we would randomly find a result this extreme. More specifically the p-value is a measure of how probable it is that we would randomly find a result this extreme if we had only tested one pair of variables one time.

But I am a p-villain. I absolutely did not test only one pair of variables one time. I correlated hundreds of millions of pairs of variables. I threw boatloads of data into an industrial-sized blender to find this correlation.

Who is going to stop me? p-value reporting doesn't require me to report how many calculations I had to go through in order to find a low p-value!
On average, you will find a correaltion as strong as 0.85 in 0.00099% of random cases. Said differently, if you correlated 100,532 random variables You don't actually need 100 thousand variables to find a correlation like this one. I don't have that many variables in my database. You can also correlate variables that are not independent. I do this a lot.

p-value calculations are useful for understanding the probability of a result happening by chance. They are most useful when used to highlight the risk of a fluke outcome. For example, if you calculate a p-value of 0.30, the risk that the result is a fluke is high. It is good to know that! But there are lots of ways to get a p-value of less than 0.01, as evidenced by this project.

In this particular case, the values are so extreme as to be meaningless. That's why no one reports p-values with specificity after they drop below 0.01.

Just to be clear: I'm being completely transparent about the calculations. There is no math trickery. This is just how statistics shakes out when you calculate hundreds of millions of random correlations.
with the same 17 degrees of freedom, Degrees of freedom is a measure of how many free components we are testing. In this case it is 17 because we have two variables measured over a period of 18 years. It's just the number of years minus ( the number of variables minus one ), which in this case simplifies to the number of years minus one.
you would randomly expect to find a correlation as strong as this one.

[ 0.63, 0.94 ] 95% correlation confidence interval (using the Fisher z-transformation)
The confidence interval is an estimate the range of the value of the correlation coefficient, using the correlation itself as an input. The values are meant to be the low and high end of the correlation coefficient with 95% confidence.

This one is a bit more complciated than the other calculations, but I include it because many people have been pushing for confidence intervals instead of p-value calculations (for example: NEJM. However, if you are dredging data, you can reliably find yourself in the 5%. That's my goal!


All values for the years included above: If I were being very sneaky, I could trim years from the beginning or end of the datasets to increase the correlation on some pairs of variables. I don't do that because there are already plenty of correlations in my database without monkeying with the years.

Still, sometimes one of the variables has more years of data available than the other. This page only shows the overlapping years. To see all the years, click on "See what else correlates with..." link above.
200520062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022
Lionel Messi's match count with Argentina (Match played)57148101013978484451918
The number of middle school special education teachers in Vermont (Laborers)280350360340310300330300280280280240270240210150290450




Why this works

  1. Data dredging: I have 25,213 variables in my database. I compare all these variables against each other to find ones that randomly match up. That's 635,695,369 correlation calculations! This is called “data dredging.” Instead of starting with a hypothesis and testing it, I instead abused the data to see what correlations shake out. It’s a dangerous way to go about analysis, because any sufficiently large dataset will yield strong correlations completely at random.
  2. Lack of causal connection: There is probably Because these pages are automatically generated, it's possible that the two variables you are viewing are in fact causually related. I take steps to prevent the obvious ones from showing on the site (I don't let data about the weather in one city correlate with the weather in a neighboring city, for example), but sometimes they still pop up. If they are related, cool! You found a loophole.
    no direct connection between these variables, despite what the AI says above. This is exacerbated by the fact that I used "Years" as the base variable. Lots of things happen in a year that are not related to each other! Most studies would use something like "one person" in stead of "one year" to be the "thing" studied.
  3. Observations not independent: For many variables, sequential years are not independent of each other. If a population of people is continuously doing something every day, there is no reason to think they would suddenly change how they are doing that thing on January 1. A simple Personally I don't find any p-value calculation to be 'simple,' but you know what I mean.
    p-value calculation does not take this into account, so mathematically it appears less probable than it really is.




Try it yourself

You can calculate the values on this page on your own! Try running the Python code to see the calculation results. Step 1: Download and install Python on your computer.

Step 2: Open a plaintext editor like Notepad and paste the code below into it.

Step 3: Save the file as "calculate_correlation.py" in a place you will remember, like your desktop. Copy the file location to your clipboard. On Windows, you can right-click the file and click "Properties," and then copy what comes after "Location:" As an example, on my computer the location is "C:\Users\tyler\Desktop"

Step 4: Open a command line window. For example, by pressing start and typing "cmd" and them pressing enter.

Step 5: Install the required modules by typing "pip install numpy", then pressing enter, then typing "pip install scipy", then pressing enter.

Step 6: Navigate to the location where you saved the Python file by using the "cd" command. For example, I would type "cd C:\Users\tyler\Desktop" and push enter.

Step 7: Run the Python script by typing "python calculate_correlation.py"

If you run into any issues, I suggest asking ChatGPT to walk you through installing Python and running the code below on your system. Try this question:

"Walk me through installing Python on my computer to run a script that uses scipy and numpy. Go step-by-step and ask me to confirm before moving on. Start by asking me questions about my operating system so that you know how to proceed. Assume I want the simplest installation with the latest version of Python and that I do not currently have any of the necessary elements installed. Remember to only give me one step per response and confirm I have done it before proceeding."


# These modules make it easier to perform the calculation
import numpy as np
from scipy import stats

# We'll define a function that we can call to return the correlation calculations
def calculate_correlation(array1, array2):

    # Calculate Pearson correlation coefficient and p-value
    correlation, p_value = stats.pearsonr(array1, array2)

    # Calculate R-squared as the square of the correlation coefficient
    r_squared = correlation**2

    return correlation, r_squared, p_value

# These are the arrays for the variables shown on this page, but you can modify them to be any two sets of numbers
array_1 = np.array([5,7,14,8,10,10,13,9,7,8,4,8,4,4,5,1,9,18,])
array_2 = np.array([280,350,360,340,310,300,330,300,280,280,280,240,270,240,210,150,290,450,])
array_1_name = "Lionel Messi's match count with Argentina"
array_2_name = "The number of middle school special education teachers in Vermont"

# Perform the calculation
print(f"Calculating the correlation between {array_1_name} and {array_2_name}...")
correlation, r_squared, p_value = calculate_correlation(array_1, array_2)

# Print the results
print("Correlation Coefficient:", correlation)
print("R-squared:", r_squared)
print("P-value:", p_value)



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Correlation ID: 1322 · Black Variable ID: 73 · Red Variable ID: 15234
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