Spurious correlation #1,277 · View random
A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is Popularity of the first name Karson and the second variable is RTX Corp's stock price (RTX). The chart goes from 2002 to 2022, and the two variables track closely in value over that time.

A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is Popularity of the first name Karson and the second variable is RTX Corp's stock price (RTX). The chart goes from 2002 to 2022, and the two variables track closely in value over that time.

Download png, svg

AI explanation

As the number of babies named Karson rises, so does the demand for "K" monogrammed baby products. This leads to a surge in revenue for companies like RTX Corp that specialize in manufacturing deluxe, diamond-encrusted, remote-controlled baby rattles. The sudden baby product boom propels RTX stock to new heights as the market clamors for the latest in infant luxury goods.

^{Show image generation prompt} Model: dalle-3
Prompt: Generate an image of a futuristic nursery store, where an array of diamond-encrusted baby rattles with "K" monogrammed baby products are on display, shimmering under sleek, ambient lighting. A prominent electronic ticker displaying the rising stock price of RTX Corp hangs above the display, as a crowd of stylishly dressed parents admires the luxurious infant goods, creating a scene of opulent sophistication amidst the bustling ambiance. The depiction should include only scenes, people, and objects, it should not include text or speech bubbles.

This image generation prompt was also generated by AI, using the following sequence:

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You select one of a few potential scene descriptors that seems to go along with the variables described. You respond only with the scene descriptions provided and say nothing else.
User prompt: Here are two variables: Popularity of the first name Karson and RTX Corp's stock price (RTX). Given these, which of the following image style descriptions seems most appropriate? Pick the one that seems to be related to one of the variables at hand. Please respond with only one of the following potential descriptions: Cyber folk Psychedelic A comic-book-style illustration with muted colors and a dotted halftone pattern from the 1960s Futuristic Art nouveau
ChatGPT: Futuristic

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You describe simple visual scenes that depict the two variables stated. You combine both variables into one scene.
User prompt: Please describe a visual scene that prominently depicts both Popularity of the first name Karson and RTX Corp's stock price (RTX), in the following situation: As the number of babies named Karson rises, so does the demand for "K" monogrammed baby products. This leads to a surge in revenue for companies like RTX Corp that specialize in manufacturing deluxe, diamond-encrusted, remote-controlled baby rattles. The sudden baby product boom propels RTX stock to new heights as the market clamors for the latest in infant luxury goods.. Keep the description simple.
ChatGPT: In a bustling nursery store, a display of glittering diamond-encrusted baby rattles catches the eye. A polished sign reads "K" monogrammed baby products next to the rattles. Above the display, an electronic ticker prominently shows the rising stock price of RTX Corp amidst the excited chatter of parents shopping for the latest in infant luxury goods.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You write and improve image generation prompts for DALLE-3. You maintain the same subjects, but enhance the visuals.
User prompt: Please respond with an image generation prompt that would be likely to create an interesting visual using DALLE-3, using the following style: [ Futuristic ] and depicting this scene: In a bustling nursery store, a display of glittering diamond-encrusted baby rattles catches the eye. A polished sign reads "K" monogrammed baby products next to the rattles. Above the display, an electronic ticker prominently shows the rising stock price of RTX Corp amidst the excited chatter of parents shopping for the latest in infant luxury goods. Keep the visual depiction simple. Do not include any words or speech bubbles.
ChatGPT: Generate an image of a futuristic nursery store, where an array of diamond-encrusted baby rattles with "K" monogrammed baby products are on display, shimmering under sleek, ambient lighting. A prominent electronic ticker displaying the rising stock price of RTX Corp hangs above the display, as a crowd of stylishly dressed parents admires the luxurious infant goods, creating a scene of opulent sophistication amidst the bustling ambiance.

*Variations in the User Prompts from chart to chart are just the result of random number generation in Python. I wrote a few arrays of various styles and methods to ask questions to change up the results. Every time this site writes an explanation or generates an image, the script picks from each at random.

I sequence the requests into multiple prompts because I find GPT 3.5 to perform much better with short, well-managed contexts. Thus, I track the context directly in Python and only ask ChatGPT targeted questions.
^{Show prompt for explanation} Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106 (fine-tuned)
System prompt: You provide humerus responses in the form of plausible sounding explanations for correlations. You assume the correlation is causative for the purpose of the explanation even if it is ridiculous. You do not chat with the user, you only reply with the causal connection explanation and nothing else.
User prompt: Please make up a funny explanation for how an increase in Popularity of the first name Karson caused RTX Corp's stock price (RTX) to increase. Make it silly.

AI academic paper

(Because p < 0.01)

The Karson Effect: Exploring the Correlation Between Name Popularity and RTX Corp's Stock Price

Journal of Quirky Quantitative Studies

Jan 2024

Reminder: This paper is AI-generated. Not real!

^{Show prompt used to generate this paper} Quick note: This sequence is long and repetitive. That's how the prompt engineering works for this one. I manage the output in Python to format it into this PDF.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You draft a literature review section of an academic research paper, that starts out dry for the first few sentences but then becomes hilarious and goofy.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up a literature review section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Popularity of the first name Karson and RTX Corp's stock price (RTX). Make lots of jokes, goofy observations, and puns.

Speak in the present tense for this section (the authors find...), as is common in academic research paper literature reviews. Name the sources in a format similar to this: In "Book," the authors find lorem and ipsum.

Make up the lorem and ipsum part, but make it sound related to the topic at hand.

Start by naming serious-sounding studies by authors like Smith, Doe, and Jones - but then quickly devolve. Name some real non-fiction books that would be related to the topic. Then name some real fiction books that sound like they could be related. Perhaps you also got inspiration from some board games that are vaugely related.

Here is the title and abstract of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
The Karson Effect: Exploring the Correlation Between Name Popularity and RTX Corp's Stock Price

[[ABSTRACT]]
This paper delves into the intriguing relationship between the popularity of the first name Karson and the stock price of RTX Corp. By employing data from the US Social Security Administration and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv), our research team scrutinized the years 2002 to 2022 and uncovered a striking correlation coefficient of 0.9035622 with p < 0.01. Join us on this whimsical academic journey as we unravel the unexpected connections between a name and a stock, and consider the implications for future financial forecasts and baby-naming trends.

-------

And here is the introduction section that led to this literature review:
[[INTRODUCTION]]
The whimsical world of academic research has led us down an unexpected path, as we embark on the exploration of the "Karson Effect." While the financial markets and baby-naming trends may seem worlds apart, our inquiry has unveiled a striking correlation between the two. In this study, we examine the curious relationship between the popularity of the first name "Karson" and the stock price of RTX Corp, much to the amusement of our colleagues in the scientific community.
As we wade through the sea of data provided by the US Social Security Administration and LSEG Analytics, we are reminded of the old adage: "laughter is the best medicine, unless you're conducting empirical research, then it's the correlation coefficient." Nevertheless, our laborious efforts have borne fruit, as we have uncovered a correlation coefficient of 0.9035622, causing us to raise our eyebrows as if we were in desperate need of a quick eyebrow workout.
The lively banter among our research team prompted the consideration of various hypotheses, ranging from the "Karson Karma" theory to the "RTX Ripple Effect." These tongue-in-cheek concepts have added a touch of levity to our investigation, which traditionally may have been deemed as dry as unbuttered toast.
With statistical significance at p < 0.01, we are left to ponder whether the "Karson Effect" is merely a statistical oddity, or if there exists a genuine interaction worthy of further exploration. Our findings have left us in a state of bemusement, questioning whether there may be hidden variables at play or if we simply stumbled upon a statistical serendipity.
As we delve into the depths of this peculiar correlation, we invite our esteemed colleagues to join us on this light-hearted academic journey. Together, let us unravel the threads that intertwine the world of baby-naming trends and the ebb and flow of stock prices, and consider the implications for financial forecasting and naming conventions. It is our hope that this unexpected connection will not only entertain but also inspire further investigations into the unexplored intersections of seemingly unrelated variables.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]

ChatGPT:
[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]

The literature review aims to synthesize the existing body of work related to the unexpected correlation between the popularity of the first name "Karson" and the stock price of RTX Corp. The authors find that the investigation into this whimsical connection has spurred much discourse and mirth within the academic community.

Smith et al. (2010) extensively studied the influence of names on individual perceptions and behaviors. Their findings suggest that individuals with more unique names may experience distinct social interactions and self-perceptions. Conversely, individuals with common names may blend into the background or face anonymity, much like a certain stock in a bustling market.

Doe and Jones (2015) delved into the psychological effects of stock prices on individuals. Surprisingly, they observed that certain names were associated with more positive or negative reactions to fluctuations in stock prices. However, little did they know that one specific name, "Karson," would become a focal point of financial analysis and bring joy to the hearts of researchers.

In "Freakonomics" (Levitt & Dubner, 2005), the authors craft engaging discussions on unconventional correlations. Some may wonder if the "Karson Effect" is simply a chapter waiting to be written in the next edition, as it challenges conventional wisdom and tickles the fancy of econometric enthusiasts.

Turning to the realm of fiction, "The Name of the Wind" (Rothfuss, 2007) explores the power of names and the impact they hold in shaping destinies. Perhaps it is not too outlandish to consider that the name "Karson" could hold some intangible influence on the fluctuations of RTX Corp's stock price, akin to the mysterious forces at play in a fantasy novel.

When considering the unexpected intersections of seemingly unrelated variables, one cannot help but draw inspiration from games like "Monopoly," where players invest in properties and navigate the highs and lows of the housing market. Is the "Karson Effect" a akin to a Chance card in the game of stock trading, bringing luck or calamity to those who dare to pronounce the name with a hint of jest or skepticism?

As the investigation into the "Karson Effect" unfolds, it is evident that the academic community may find respite from the mundanity of traditional correlations and discover the joy of examining peculiar connections that inspire laughter, intrigue, and a touch of whimsy.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You draft the methodology section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the methodology section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Popularity of the first name Karson and RTX Corp's stock price (RTX). Make lots of jokes, goofy observations, and puns. Sneak in some jokes and clever puns about science, research, statistics, and the variables.

Your research team collected data from all across the internet, but mostly just used information from US Social Security Administration and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv) . You used data from 2002 to 2022

Make up the research methods you don't know. Make them a bit goofy and convoluted.

Here is the title, abstract, and introduction of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
The Karson Effect: Exploring the Correlation Between Name Popularity and RTX Corp's Stock Price

[[ABSTRACT]]
This paper delves into the intriguing relationship between the popularity of the first name Karson and the stock price of RTX Corp. By employing data from the US Social Security Administration and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv), our research team scrutinized the years 2002 to 2022 and uncovered a striking correlation coefficient of 0.9035622 with p < 0.01. Join us on this whimsical academic journey as we unravel the unexpected connections between a name and a stock, and consider the implications for future financial forecasts and baby-naming trends.

[[INTRODUCTION]]
The whimsical world of academic research has led us down an unexpected path, as we embark on the exploration of the "Karson Effect." While the financial markets and baby-naming trends may seem worlds apart, our inquiry has unveiled a striking correlation between the two. In this study, we examine the curious relationship between the popularity of the first name "Karson" and the stock price of RTX Corp, much to the amusement of our colleagues in the scientific community.
As we wade through the sea of data provided by the US Social Security Administration and LSEG Analytics, we are reminded of the old adage: "laughter is the best medicine, unless you're conducting empirical research, then it's the correlation coefficient." Nevertheless, our laborious efforts have borne fruit, as we have uncovered a correlation coefficient of 0.9035622, causing us to raise our eyebrows as if we were in desperate need of a quick eyebrow workout.
The lively banter among our research team prompted the consideration of various hypotheses, ranging from the "Karson Karma" theory to the "RTX Ripple Effect." These tongue-in-cheek concepts have added a touch of levity to our investigation, which traditionally may have been deemed as dry as unbuttered toast.
With statistical significance at p < 0.01, we are left to ponder whether the "Karson Effect" is merely a statistical oddity, or if there exists a genuine interaction worthy of further exploration. Our findings have left us in a state of bemusement, questioning whether there may be hidden variables at play or if we simply stumbled upon a statistical serendipity.
As we delve into the depths of this peculiar correlation, we invite our esteemed colleagues to join us on this light-hearted academic journey. Together, let us unravel the threads that intertwine the world of baby-naming trends and the ebb and flow of stock prices, and consider the implications for financial forecasting and naming conventions. It is our hope that this unexpected connection will not only entertain but also inspire further investigations into the unexplored intersections of seemingly unrelated variables.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[METHODOLOGY]]

ChatGPT:

[[METHODOLOGY]]

The convoluted but meticulously orchestrated methodology of this study involved a multi-faceted approach to capture the elusive correlation between the popularity of the first name "Karson" and the stock price of RTX Corp. Our data, sourced from the US Social Security Administration and the labyrinthine depths of LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv), spanned the years 2002 to 2022.

In an attempt to encapsulate the essence of name popularity, we engaged in the arduous task of sifting through seemingly endless birth records and meticulously cataloging the occurrence of the name "Karson" within the United States. This Herculean effort required the precision and determination of a seasoned treasure hunter, meticulously documenting each mention of the name like an antiquarian diligently cataloging rare finds.

On the flip side of this multifaceted coin, we delved into the capricious realm of stock prices, utilizing LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv) as our guiding star. Our research team engaged in the debonair dance of data extraction, meticulously gathering the stock prices of RTX Corp and subjecting them to rigorous scrutiny.

The subsequent data-wrangling phase evoked both exasperation and amusement, not unlike a vaudevillian comedy act. We meticulously aligned the birth records with the corresponding stock prices, drawing parallels and uncovering patterns with the discerning eye of a seasoned detective in a classic whodunit.

Having achieved this harmonious integration of disparate data sources, we ventured into the realm of statistical analysis with all the gusto of intrepid adventurers navigating uncharted waters. Our toolkit included the grandiose yet elegant Pearson correlation coefficient, which served as our compass through the tempestuous sea of data. As we tangentially explored the hallowed halls of statistical significance, we invoked the ever-sage p-value to ascertain the veracity of our findings.

In our noble pursuit of knowledge, we remained acutely aware of the potential confounding variables that lurk in the shadows, threatening to cast doubt upon our findings. Thus, with the gravity of a classical tragedy, we engaged in comprehensive sensitivity analyses to probe the robustness of our results and alleviate any looming skepticism.

As the dust settled on our methodological odyssey, we emerged with a newfound appreciation for the interplay between seemingly unrelated phenomena. Our findings stand as a testament to the potential for serendipitous discoveries in the unlikeliest of places, and we invite our esteemed colleagues to join us in this whimsical exploration of the "Karson Effect."

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You draft the results section of an academic research paper. You speak in the past tense (you found...).
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the results section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Popularity of the first name Karson and RTX Corp's stock price (RTX). Make lots of jokes, goofy observations, and puns. Sneak in some jokes and clever puns about science, research, statistics, and the variables.

Your research team collected data from all across the internet, but mostly just used information from US Social Security Administration and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv) .

For the time period 2002 to 2022, you found a correlation 0.9035622, r-squared of 0.8164247, and p < 0.01.

One figure will be included. The figure (Fig. 1) is a scatterplot showing the strong correlation between the two variables. You don't need to specify where; I will add the figure.

Here is the title and abstract of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
The Karson Effect: Exploring the Correlation Between Name Popularity and RTX Corp's Stock Price

[[ABSTRACT]]
This paper delves into the intriguing relationship between the popularity of the first name Karson and the stock price of RTX Corp. By employing data from the US Social Security Administration and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv), our research team scrutinized the years 2002 to 2022 and uncovered a striking correlation coefficient of 0.9035622 with p < 0.01. Join us on this whimsical academic journey as we unravel the unexpected connections between a name and a stock, and consider the implications for future financial forecasts and baby-naming trends.

-------

And here is the methodology section that led to this result:
[[METHODOLOGY]]
The whimsical world of academic research has led us down an unexpected path, as we embark on the exploration of the "Karson Effect." While the financial markets and baby-naming trends may seem worlds apart, our inquiry has unveiled a striking correlation between the two. In this study, we examine the curious relationship between the popularity of the first name "Karson" and the stock price of RTX Corp, much to the amusement of our colleagues in the scientific community.
As we wade through the sea of data provided by the US Social Security Administration and LSEG Analytics, we are reminded of the old adage: "laughter is the best medicine, unless you're conducting empirical research, then it's the correlation coefficient." Nevertheless, our laborious efforts have borne fruit, as we have uncovered a correlation coefficient of 0.9035622, causing us to raise our eyebrows as if we were in desperate need of a quick eyebrow workout.
The lively banter among our research team prompted the consideration of various hypotheses, ranging from the "Karson Karma" theory to the "RTX Ripple Effect." These tongue-in-cheek concepts have added a touch of levity to our investigation, which traditionally may have been deemed as dry as unbuttered toast.
With statistical significance at p < 0.01, we are left to ponder whether the "Karson Effect" is merely a statistical oddity, or if there exists a genuine interaction worthy of further exploration. Our findings have left us in a state of bemusement, questioning whether there may be hidden variables at play or if we simply stumbled upon a statistical serendipity.
As we delve into the depths of this peculiar correlation, we invite our esteemed colleagues to join us on this light-hearted academic journey. Together, let us unravel the threads that intertwine the world of baby-naming trends and the ebb and flow of stock prices, and consider the implications for financial forecasting and naming conventions. It is our hope that this unexpected connection will not only entertain but also inspire further investigations into the unexplored intersections of seemingly unrelated variables.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[RESULTS]]

ChatGPT:

[[RESULTS]]

The investigation into the "Karson Effect" has yielded a correlation coefficient of 0.9035622, indicating a remarkably strong positive relationship between the popularity of the first name Karson and the stock price of RTX Corp. This finding has left us in a state of surprise, akin to stumbling upon a science-themed stand-up comedy show.

The r-squared value of 0.8164247 further enhances the plausibility of the connection, akin to the encore of laughter following a successful punchline. With statistical significance at p < 0.01, we can confidently state that this correlation is not just a statistical fluke, but a real, tangible association that has eluded conventional wisdom.

The Figure 1 scatterplot visually captures this striking relationship, resembling a doodle in the margin of a serious financial report – a whimsical reminder of the unexpected correlations that can emerge from our meticulous analyses.

These findings suggest that the popularity of the name "Karson" may indeed have an influence on the stock price of RTX Corp, provoking lively discussions among our research team and prompting irresistible wisecracks about the "Karson Kick" effect on financial markets.

In light of these results, we must acknowledge the comedy inherent in the world of empirical research, as our investigation into the "Karson Effect" has unmasked an intriguing connection that has left us both amused and intellectually intrigued.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You draft the discussion section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the discussion section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Popularity of the first name Karson and RTX Corp's stock price (RTX). Make lots of jokes, goofy observations, and puns. Sneak in some jokes and clever puns about science, research, statistics, and the variables.

Limit your response to 500 tokens.

Here are the title, abstract, literature review, and results sections. Please harken back to 1-2 of the goofy items in the literature review, but pretend to take them completely seriously. Discuss how your results supported the prior research.

Do not write a conclusion. I will add a conclusion after this.

[[TITLE]]
The Karson Effect: Exploring the Correlation Between Name Popularity and RTX Corp's Stock Price

[[ABSTRACT]]
This paper delves into the intriguing relationship between the popularity of the first name Karson and the stock price of RTX Corp. By employing data from the US Social Security Administration and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv), our research team scrutinized the years 2002 to 2022 and uncovered a striking correlation coefficient of 0.9035622 with p < 0.01. Join us on this whimsical academic journey as we unravel the unexpected connections between a name and a stock, and consider the implications for future financial forecasts and baby-naming trends.

[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]
The literature review aims to synthesize the existing body of work related to the unexpected correlation between the popularity of the first name "Karson" and the stock price of RTX Corp. The authors find that the investigation into this whimsical connection has spurred much discourse and mirth within the academic community.
Smith et al. (2010) extensively studied the influence of names on individual perceptions and behaviors. Their findings suggest that individuals with more unique names may experience distinct social interactions and self-perceptions. Conversely, individuals with common names may blend into the background or face anonymity, much like a certain stock in a bustling market.
Doe and Jones (2015) delved into the psychological effects of stock prices on individuals. Surprisingly, they observed that certain names were associated with more positive or negative reactions to fluctuations in stock prices. However, little did they know that one specific name, "Karson," would become a focal point of financial analysis and bring joy to the hearts of researchers.
In "Freakonomics" (Levitt & Dubner, 2005), the authors craft engaging discussions on unconventional correlations. Some may wonder if the "Karson Effect" is simply a chapter waiting to be written in the next edition, as it challenges conventional wisdom and tickles the fancy of econometric enthusiasts.
Turning to the realm of fiction, "The Name of the Wind" (Rothfuss, 2007) explores the power of names and the impact they hold in shaping destinies. Perhaps it is not too outlandish to consider that the name "Karson" could hold some intangible influence on the fluctuations of RTX Corp's stock price, akin to the mysterious forces at play in a fantasy novel.
When considering the unexpected intersections of seemingly unrelated variables, one cannot help but draw inspiration from games like "Monopoly," where players invest in properties and navigate the highs and lows of the housing market. Is the "Karson Effect" a akin to a Chance card in the game of stock trading, bringing luck or calamity to those who dare to pronounce the name with a hint of jest or skepticism?
As the investigation into the "Karson Effect" unfolds, it is evident that the academic community may find respite from the mundanity of traditional correlations and discover the joy of examining peculiar connections that inspire laughter, intrigue, and a touch of whimsy.

[[RESULTS]]
The investigation into the "Karson Effect" has yielded a correlation coefficient of 0.9035622, indicating a remarkably strong positive relationship between the popularity of the first name Karson and the stock price of RTX Corp. This finding has left us in a state of surprise, akin to stumbling upon a science-themed stand-up comedy show.
The r-squared value of 0.8164247 further enhances the plausibility of the connection, akin to the encore of laughter following a successful punchline. With statistical significance at p < 0.01, we can confidently state that this correlation is not just a statistical fluke, but a real, tangible association that has eluded conventional wisdom.
The Figure 1 scatterplot visually captures this striking relationship, resembling a doodle in the margin of a serious financial report – a whimsical reminder of the unexpected correlations that can emerge from our meticulous analyses.
These findings suggest that the popularity of the name "Karson" may indeed have an influence on the stock price of RTX Corp, provoking lively discussions among our research team and prompting irresistible wisecracks about the "Karson Kick" effect on financial markets.
In light of these results, we must acknowledge the comedy inherent in the world of empirical research, as our investigation into the "Karson Effect" has unmasked an intriguing connection that has left us both amused and intellectually intrigued.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[DISCUSSION]]

ChatGPT:

[[DISCUSSION]]

The results of our investigation into the "Karson Effect" have opened a Pandora's box of whimsy and statistical intrigue. The correlation coefficient of 0.9035622 stands as a testament to the unexpected and peculiar associations that can emerge from the analysis of seemingly unrelated variables. Our findings not only support the prior research but also add a touch of enigma and amusement to the somewhat staid world of financial analysis.

The existing body of work on the psychological effects of names and stock prices provided the foundation for our research. Smith et al. (2010) hinted at the potential distinct social interactions and self-perceptions driven by unique names. Little did they suspect that a seemingly ordinary name like "Karson" would emerge as a focal point of financial analysis, adding an unexpected twist to the tale of name perceptions. Furthermore, the wit and mirth inherent in the research on unconventional correlations, as noted in "Freakonomics" (Levitt & Dubner, 2005), found its echo in our investigation into the "Karson Effect." The laughter and intrigue inspired by our findings mirror the engaging discussions crafted by the authors.

The sturdy correlation coefficient our study has unveiled hint at the uncanny possibility that the popularity of the name "Karson" may hold some sway over the stock price of RTX Corp. This revelation has left us contemplative about the mysterious forces at play in the financial markets and has ignited a flurry of jokes and puns about the "Karson Kick" effect. Our findings have indeed tickled the fancy of researchers and may potentially inspire the writing of a chapter on the "Karson Effect" in the annals of unconventional correlations, adding a dollop of amusement to the otherwise earnest pursuit of economic analysis.

As we ponder the implications of our investigation, we cannot help but acknowledge the delightful absurdity that often underpins empirical research. The "Karson Effect" stands not only as a statistical triumph but also as a whimsical reminder of the unexpected connections that can emerge from meticulous analysis. Our conclusions, like a well-crafted punchline, have provoked laughter and intellectual intrigue, cementing the "Karson Effect" as a charming addition to the realm of financial analysis.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You draft the discussion section of goofy academic research papers that sounds like it belongs based on the title and abstract provided.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up a short conclusion of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Popularity of the first name Karson and RTX Corp's stock price (RTX). Make lots of jokes, goofy observations, and puns. Sneak in some jokes and clever puns about science, research, statistics, and the variables.

Limit your response to 300 tokens. At the very end, assert that no more research is needed in this area.

Here are the title, abstract, introduction, and results sections.
[[TITLE]]
The Karson Effect: Exploring the Correlation Between Name Popularity and RTX Corp's Stock Price

[[ABSTRACT]]
This paper delves into the intriguing relationship between the popularity of the first name Karson and the stock price of RTX Corp. By employing data from the US Social Security Administration and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv), our research team scrutinized the years 2002 to 2022 and uncovered a striking correlation coefficient of 0.9035622 with p < 0.01. Join us on this whimsical academic journey as we unravel the unexpected connections between a name and a stock, and consider the implications for future financial forecasts and baby-naming trends.

[[INTRDUCTION]]
The whimsical world of academic research has led us down an unexpected path, as we embark on the exploration of the "Karson Effect." While the financial markets and baby-naming trends may seem worlds apart, our inquiry has unveiled a striking correlation between the two. In this study, we examine the curious relationship between the popularity of the first name "Karson" and the stock price of RTX Corp, much to the amusement of our colleagues in the scientific community.
As we wade through the sea of data provided by the US Social Security Administration and LSEG Analytics, we are reminded of the old adage: "laughter is the best medicine, unless you're conducting empirical research, then it's the correlation coefficient." Nevertheless, our laborious efforts have borne fruit, as we have uncovered a correlation coefficient of 0.9035622, causing us to raise our eyebrows as if we were in desperate need of a quick eyebrow workout.
The lively banter among our research team prompted the consideration of various hypotheses, ranging from the "Karson Karma" theory to the "RTX Ripple Effect." These tongue-in-cheek concepts have added a touch of levity to our investigation, which traditionally may have been deemed as dry as unbuttered toast.
With statistical significance at p < 0.01, we are left to ponder whether the "Karson Effect" is merely a statistical oddity, or if there exists a genuine interaction worthy of further exploration. Our findings have left us in a state of bemusement, questioning whether there may be hidden variables at play or if we simply stumbled upon a statistical serendipity.
As we delve into the depths of this peculiar correlation, we invite our esteemed colleagues to join us on this light-hearted academic journey. Together, let us unravel the threads that intertwine the world of baby-naming trends and the ebb and flow of stock prices, and consider the implications for financial forecasting and naming conventions. It is our hope that this unexpected connection will not only entertain but also inspire further investigations into the unexplored intersections of seemingly unrelated variables.

[[RESULTS]]
The investigation into the "Karson Effect" has yielded a correlation coefficient of 0.9035622, indicating a remarkably strong positive relationship between the popularity of the first name Karson and the stock price of RTX Corp. This finding has left us in a state of surprise, akin to stumbling upon a science-themed stand-up comedy show.
The r-squared value of 0.8164247 further enhances the plausibility of the connection, akin to the encore of laughter following a successful punchline. With statistical significance at p < 0.01, we can confidently state that this correlation is not just a statistical fluke, but a real, tangible association that has eluded conventional wisdom.
The Figure 1 scatterplot visually captures this striking relationship, resembling a doodle in the margin of a serious financial report – a whimsical reminder of the unexpected correlations that can emerge from our meticulous analyses.
These findings suggest that the popularity of the name "Karson" may indeed have an influence on the stock price of RTX Corp, provoking lively discussions among our research team and prompting irresistible wisecracks about the "Karson Kick" effect on financial markets.
In light of these results, we must acknowledge the comedy inherent in the world of empirical research, as our investigation into the "Karson Effect" has unmasked an intriguing connection that has left us both amused and intellectually intrigued.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[CONCLUSION]]

ChatGPT:

[[CONCLUSION]]

The "Karson Effect" has certainly invoked laughter and raised eyebrows in the scientific community, and not just because we've been practicing our "surprised scientist" impression. Our investigation has unveiled a statistically significant association between the popularity of the first name Karson and the stock price of RTX Corp, leaving us pondering the whimsical wonders of correlation.

The spirited discussions among our research team have led to the consideration of various tongue-in-cheek theories, from the "Karson Karma" hypothesis to the "RTX Ripple Effect," prompting a constant stream of financial and baby-naming puns that even made our statistics professor crack a smile.

These findings have illuminated the often overlooked hilarity in the world of empirical research. The unexpected connection we uncovered has left us amused, entertained, and pondering the peculiar dance between baby names and financial markets. Surely, this correlation is not merely a statistical fluke, but a delightful research discovery akin to finding a hidden joke in an academic paper.

As we reflect on the statistical serendipity of the "Karson Effect," we can't help but be reminded of the importance of embracing the unexpected in our explorations. However, in the spirit of lighthearted academic inquiry, we assert that no further research in this area is needed, as we simply can't handle any more stock and name-related puns at this time.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide fictional names of academic journals. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide the name of a funny but plausible sounding research, scientific, or academic journal that would publish a paper entited The Karson Effect: Exploring the Correlation Between Name Popularity and RTX Corp's Stock Price. Respond only with the name of a fictional academic journal.

ChatGPT:

Journal of Quirky Quantitative Studies

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide fictional names of nonprofit research organizations and associations. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide the name of a funny but plausible sounding nonprofit, academic, or scientific association or organization that would sponsor research that resulted in a paper entited The Karson Effect: Exploring the Correlation Between Name Popularity and RTX Corp's Stock Price. Respond only with the name of a fictional organization.

ChatGPT:

The Center for Applied Social Trends Research

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide potential search keywords separated by commas. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide potential search keywords for a paper titled The Karson Effect: Exploring the Correlation Between Name Popularity and RTX Corp's Stock Price with an abstract of This paper delves into the intriguing relationship between the popularity of the first name Karson and the stock price of RTX Corp. By employing data from the US Social Security Administration and LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv), our research team scrutinized the years 2002 to 2022 and uncovered a striking correlation coefficient of 0.9035622 with p < 0.01. Join us on this whimsical academic journey as we unravel the unexpected connections between a name and a stock, and consider the implications for future financial forecasts and baby-naming trends.

ChatGPT:

Karson name popularity, RTX Corp stock price, correlation, US Social Security Administration data, LSEG Analytics, Refinitiv, stock price correlation coefficient, financial forecasts, baby-naming trends

*There is a bunch of Python happening behind the scenes to turn this prompt sequence into a PDF.

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Data details

Popularity of the first name Karson
Detailed data title: Babies of all sexes born in the US named Karson
Source: US Social Security Administration
See what else correlates with Popularity of the first name Karson

RTX Corp's stock price (RTX)
Detailed data title: Opening price of RTX Corp (RTX) on the first trading day of the year
Source: LSEG Analytics (Refinitiv)
Additional Info: ^{See full details} Via Microsoft Excel Stockhistory function

See what else correlates with RTX Corp's stock price (RTX)

Correlation r = 0.9035622 (Pearson correlation coefficient)
Correlation is a measure of how much the variables move together. If it is 0.99, when one goes up the other goes up. If it is 0.02, the connection is very weak or non-existent. If it is -0.99, then when one goes up the other goes down. If it is 1.00, you probably messed up your correlation function.

r² = 0.8164247 (Coefficient of determination)
This means 81.6% of the change in the one variable (i.e., RTX Corp's stock price (RTX)) is predictable based on the change in the other (i.e., Popularity of the first name Karson) over the 21 years from 2002 through 2022.

p < 0.01, which is statistically significant(Null hypothesis significance test)
The p-value is 2.007E-8.^Show 0.0000000200717714272419350000
The p-value is a measure of how probable it is that we would randomly find a result this extreme.^Note More specifically the p-value is a measure of how probable it is that we would randomly find a result this extreme if we had only tested one pair of variables one time.

But I am a p-villain. I absolutely did not test only one pair of variables one time. I correlated hundreds of millions of pairs of variables. I threw boatloads of data into an industrial-sized blender to find this correlation.

Who is going to stop me? p-value reporting doesn't require me to report how many calculations I had to go through in order to find a low p-value!
On average, you will find a correaltion as strong as 0.9 in 2.007E-6% of random cases. Said differently, if you correlated 49,821,213 random variables^Note You don't actually need 49 million variables to find a correlation like this one. I don't have that many variables in my database. You can also correlate variables that are not independent. I do this a lot.

p-value calculations are useful for understanding the probability of a result happening by chance. They are most useful when used to highlight the risk of a fluke outcome. For example, if you calculate a p-value of 0.30, the risk that the result is a fluke is high. It is good to know that! But there are lots of ways to get a p-value of less than 0.01, as evidenced by this project.

In this particular case, the values are so extreme as to be meaningless. That's why no one reports p-values with specificity after they drop below 0.01.

Just to be clear: I'm being completely transparent about the calculations. There is no math trickery. This is just how statistics shakes out when you calculate hundreds of millions of random correlations.
with the same 20 degrees of freedom, ^Note Degrees of freedom is a measure of how many free components we are testing. In this case it is 20 because we have two variables measured over a period of 21 years. It's just the number of years minus ( the number of variables minus one ), which in this case simplifies to the number of years minus one.
you would randomly expect to find a correlation as strong as this one.

[ 0.77, 0.96 ] 95% correlation confidence interval (using the Fisher z-transformation)
^{Read more about the confidence interval} The confidence interval is an estimate the range of the value of the correlation coefficient, using the correlation itself as an input. The values are meant to be the low and high end of the correlation coefficient with 95% confidence.

This one is a bit more complciated than the other calculations, but I include it because many people have been pushing for confidence intervals instead of p-value calculations (for example: NEJM. However, if you are dredging data, you can reliably find yourself in the 5%. That's my goal!

All values for the years included above: ^Note If I were being very sneaky, I could trim years from the beginning or end of the datasets to increase the correlation on some pairs of variables. I don't do that because there are already plenty of correlations in my database without monkeying with the years.

Still, sometimes one of the variables has more years of data available than the other. This page only shows the overlapping years. To see all the years, click on "See what else correlates with..." link above.

	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
Popularity of the first name Karson (Babies born)	332	421	421	455	504	520	616	678	828	877	900	1054	1091	1290	1186	1330	1408	1382	1338	1134	1034
RTX Corp's stock price (RTX) (Stock price)	32.35	31.15	47.42	51.61	56.45	62.6	76.64	53.46	70.21	79.19	74.91	83.43	112.9	115.14	94.45	110.39	127.9	105.16	149.74	71.38	86.08

Why this works

Data dredging: I have 25,153 variables in my database. I compare all these variables against each other to find ones that randomly match up. That's 632,673,409 correlation calculations! This is called “data dredging.” Instead of starting with a hypothesis and testing it, I instead abused the data to see what correlations shake out. It’s a dangerous way to go about analysis, because any sufficiently large dataset will yield strong correlations completely at random.
Lack of causal connection: There is probably^Note Because these pages are automatically generated, it's possible that the two variables you are viewing are in fact causually related. I take steps to prevent the obvious ones from showing on the site (I don't let data about the weather in one city correlate with the weather in a neighboring city, for example), but sometimes they still pop up. If they are related, cool! You found a loophole.
no direct connection between these variables, despite what the AI says above. This is exacerbated by the fact that I used "Years" as the base variable. Lots of things happen in a year that are not related to each other! Most studies would use something like "one person" in stead of "one year" to be the "thing" studied.
Observations not independent: For many variables, sequential years are not independent of each other. If a population of people is continuously doing something every day, there is no reason to think they would suddenly change how they are doing that thing on January 1. A simple^Note Personally I don't find any p-value calculation to be 'simple,' but you know what I mean.
p-value calculation does not take this into account, so mathematically it appears less probable than it really is.

Try it yourself

You can calculate the values on this page on your own! Try running the Python code to see the calculation results. ^{Show the steps to do this.} Step 1: Download and install Python on your computer.

Step 2: Open a plaintext editor like Notepad and paste the code below into it.

Step 3: Save the file as "calculate_correlation.py" in a place you will remember, like your desktop. Copy the file location to your clipboard. On Windows, you can right-click the file and click "Properties," and then copy what comes after "Location:" As an example, on my computer the location is "C:\Users\tyler\Desktop"

Step 4: Open a command line window. For example, by pressing start and typing "cmd" and them pressing enter.

Step 5: Install the required modules by typing "pip install numpy", then pressing enter, then typing "pip install scipy", then pressing enter.

Step 6: Navigate to the location where you saved the Python file by using the "cd" command. For example, I would type "cd C:\Users\tyler\Desktop" and push enter.

Step 7: Run the Python script by typing "python calculate_correlation.py"

If you run into any issues, I suggest asking ChatGPT to walk you through installing Python and running the code below on your system. Try this question:

"Walk me through installing Python on my computer to run a script that uses scipy and numpy. Go step-by-step and ask me to confirm before moving on. Start by asking me questions about my operating system so that you know how to proceed. Assume I want the simplest installation with the latest version of Python and that I do not currently have any of the necessary elements installed. Remember to only give me one step per response and confirm I have done it before proceeding."

# These modules make it easier to perform the calculation
import numpy as np
from scipy import stats

# We'll define a function that we can call to return the correlation calculations
def calculate_correlation(array1, array2):

    # Calculate Pearson correlation coefficient and p-value
    correlation, p_value = stats.pearsonr(array1, array2)

    # Calculate R-squared as the square of the correlation coefficient
    r_squared = correlation**2

    return correlation, r_squared, p_value

# These are the arrays for the variables shown on this page, but you can modify them to be any two sets of numbers
array_1 = np.array([332,421,421,455,504,520,616,678,828,877,900,1054,1091,1290,1186,1330,1408,1382,1338,1134,1034,])
array_2 = np.array([32.35,31.15,47.42,51.61,56.45,62.6,76.64,53.46,70.21,79.19,74.91,83.43,112.9,115.14,94.45,110.39,127.9,105.16,149.74,71.38,86.08,])
array_1_name = "Popularity of the first name Karson"
array_2_name = "RTX Corp's stock price (RTX)"

# Perform the calculation
print(f"Calculating the correlation between {array_1_name} and {array_2_name}...")
correlation, r_squared, p_value = calculate_correlation(array_1, array_2)

# Print the results
print("Correlation Coefficient:", correlation)
print("R-squared:", r_squared)
print("P-value:", p_value)

Reuseable content

You may re-use the images on this page for any purpose, even commercial purposes, without asking for permission. The only requirement is that you attribute Tyler Vigen. ^Note Attribution can take many different forms. If you leave the "tylervigen.com" link in the image, that satisfies it just fine. If you remove it and move it to a footnote, that's fine too. You can also just write "Charts courtesy of Tyler Vigen" at the bottom of an article.

You do not need to attribute "the spurious correlations website," and you don't even need to link here if you don't want to. I don't gain anything from pageviews. There are no ads on this site, there is nothing for sale, and I am not for hire.

For the record, I am just one person. Tyler Vigen, he/him/his. I do have degrees, but they should not go after my name unless you want to annoy my wife. If that is your goal, then go ahead and cite me as "Tyler Vigen, A.A. A.A.S. B.A. J.D." Otherwise it is just "Tyler Vigen."

When spoken, my last name is pronounced "vegan," like I don't eat meat.

Full license details.
For more on re-use permissions, or to get a signed release form, see tylervigen.com/permission.

Download images for these variables:

High resolution line chart ^Note The image linked here is a Scalable Vector Graphic (SVG). It is the highest resolution that is possible to achieve. It scales up beyond the size of the observable universe without pixelating. You do not need to email me asking if I have a higher resolution image. I do not. The physical limitations of our universe prevent me from providing you with an image that is any higher resolution than this one.

If you insert it into a PowerPoint presentation (a tool well-known for managing things that are the scale of the universe), you can right-click > "Ungroup" or "Create Shape" and then edit the lines and text directly. You can also change the colors this way.

Alternatively you can use a tool like Inkscape.
High resolution line chart, optimized for mobile
Alternative high resolution line chart
Scatterplot
Portable line chart (png)
Portable line chart (png), optimized for mobile
Line chart for only Popularity of the first name Karson
Line chart for only RTX Corp's stock price (RTX)
AI-generated correlation image
The spurious research paper: The Karson Effect: Exploring the Correlation Between Name Popularity and RTX Corp's Stock Price

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Correlation ID: 1277 · Black Variable ID: 4269 · Red Variable ID: 1627


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