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AI explanation

^{Show image generation prompt} Model: dalle-3
Prompt: [ Concept art ] Create an image of a serene park with a prominent sign that reads "Arson Incidents." In the background, there's a group of people wearing "Jarred" t-shirts. As the number of people wearing "Jarred" t-shirts decreases, the group becomes smaller, and the sign for "Arson Incidents" also starts to fade and becomes less visible, indicating a decrease in arson incidents. The scene suggests that as the number of people named Jarred decreases, the potential for arson also decreases, creating a calmer and safer park environment. Capture the transition from a larger group to a smaller group and the fading of the "Arson Incidents" sign to convey the correlation between the two elements. The depiction should include only scenes, people, and objects, it should not include text or speech bubbles.

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This image generation prompt was also generated by AI, using the following sequence:

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You select one of a few potential scene descriptors that seems to go along with the situation described. You respond only with the scene descriptions provided and say nothing else.
User prompt: Here is a situation: A decrease in the popularity of the first name Jarred caused arson in Rhode Island to also decrease because as the name Jarred became less common, so did the desire to "fire up" any questionable activities. With fewer people named Jarred around, there were fewer "hotheads" to start trouble, leading to a decrease in arson incidents. It seems that the lack of Jarr-ed up individuals had a cooling effect on the arson statistics, extinguishing the flames of mischief in Rhode Island.. Given that situation, which of the following image descriptions seems most appropriate? Pick the one that seems to be related to one of the variables at hand and the tone of the explanation. Please respond with only one of the following potential descriptions: a Polaroid photo Concept art Futuristic Celtic art Art nouveau
ChatGPT: Concept art

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You describe simple visual scenes that depict the two variables stated and the explanation described. Do not reference graphs or charts; describe physical objects.
User prompt: Please describe a visual scene that depicts the following situation. Keep the description simple. A decrease in the popularity of the first name Jarred caused arson in Rhode Island to also decrease because as the name Jarred became less common, so did the desire to "fire up" any questionable activities. With fewer people named Jarred around, there were fewer "hotheads" to start trouble, leading to a decrease in arson incidents. It seems that the lack of Jarr-ed up individuals had a cooling effect on the arson statistics, extinguishing the flames of mischief in Rhode Island.
ChatGPT: Imagine a park with a large sign that reads "Arson Incidents." In the background, there is a group of people with the name "Jarred" on their t-shirts. As the number of people wearing "Jarred" t-shirts decreases, the group becomes smaller, and the sign for "Arson Incidents" also starts to fade and becomes less visible, indicating a decrease in arson incidents. The scene suggests that as the number of people named Jarred decreases, the potential for arson also decreases, creating a calmer and safer park environment.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You write and improve image generation prompts for DALLE-3. You maintain the same subjects, but enhance the visuals.
User prompt: Please respond with an image generation prompt that would be likely to create an interesting visual using DALLE-3, using the following style: [ Concept art ] and depicting this scene: Imagine a park with a large sign that reads "Arson Incidents." In the background, there is a group of people with the name "Jarred" on their t-shirts. As the number of people wearing "Jarred" t-shirts decreases, the group becomes smaller, and the sign for "Arson Incidents" also starts to fade and becomes less visible, indicating a decrease in arson incidents. The scene suggests that as the number of people named Jarred decreases, the potential for arson also decreases, creating a calmer and safer park environment. Keep the visual depiction simple. Do not include any words or speech bubbles.
ChatGPT: [ Concept art ] Create an image of a serene park with a prominent sign that reads "Arson Incidents." In the background, there's a group of people wearing "Jarred" t-shirts. As the number of people wearing "Jarred" t-shirts decreases, the group becomes smaller, and the sign for "Arson Incidents" also starts to fade and becomes less visible, indicating a decrease in arson incidents. The scene suggests that as the number of people named Jarred decreases, the potential for arson also decreases, creating a calmer and safer park environment. Capture the transition from a larger group to a smaller group and the fading of the "Arson Incidents" sign to convey the correlation between the two elements.

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*Variations in the User Prompts from chart to chart are just the result of random number generation in Python. I wrote a few arrays of various styles and methods to ask questions to change up the results. Every time this site writes an explanation or generates an image, the script picks from each at random.

I sequence the requests into multiple prompts because I find GPT 3.5 to perform much better with short, well-managed contexts. Thus, I track the context directly in Python and only ask ChatGPT targeted questions.

AI academic paper

Heat of the Moment: Exploring the Ignition of Arson in Rhode Island with the Popularity of the Name Jarred Journal of Forensic Psychology and Criminology Jan 2024 Reminder: This paper is AI-generated. Not real!

Problem variable:	Which variable has a problem? Popularity of the first name Jarred Arson in Rhode Island Neither / both
Issue:	What is the issue? The data is incorrect The chart isn't displaying properly There is a typo The source link is incorrect A calculation is wrong Something else
Additional details: Optional
Confirm you are a human:

Data details

Why this works

1. Data dredging: I have 25,153 variables in my database. I compare all these variables against each other to find ones that randomly match up. That's 632,673,409 correlation calculations! This is called “data dredging.” Instead of starting with a hypothesis and testing it, I instead abused the data to see what correlations shake out. It’s a dangerous way to go about analysis, because any sufficiently large dataset will yield strong correlations completely at random.
2. Lack of causal connection: There is probably^Note Because these pages are automatically generated, it's possible that the two variables you are viewing are in fact causually related. I take steps to prevent the obvious ones from showing on the site (I don't let data about the weather in one city correlate with the weather in a neighboring city, for example), but sometimes they still pop up. If they are related, cool! You found a loophole.
   no direct connection between these variables, despite what the AI says above. This is exacerbated by the fact that I used "Years" as the base variable. Lots of things happen in a year that are not related to each other! Most studies would use something like "one person" in stead of "one year" to be the "thing" studied.
3. Observations not independent: For many variables, sequential years are not independent of each other. If a population of people is continuously doing something every day, there is no reason to think they would suddenly change how they are doing that thing on January 1. A simple^Note Personally I don't find any p-value calculation to be 'simple,' but you know what I mean.
   p-value calculation does not take this into account, so mathematically it appears less probable than it really is.

Try it yourself

# These modules make it easier to perform the calculation
import numpy as np
from scipy import stats

# We'll define a function that we can call to return the correlation calculations
def calculate_correlation(array1, array2):

    # Calculate Pearson correlation coefficient and p-value
    correlation, p_value = stats.pearsonr(array1, array2)

    # Calculate R-squared as the square of the correlation coefficient
    r_squared = correlation**2

    return correlation, r_squared, p_value

# These are the arrays for the variables shown on this page, but you can modify them to be any two sets of numbers
array_1 = np.array([448,461,480,552,607,564,486,503,562,506,493,467,489,542,561,499,375,267,204,151,128,125,99,80,62,58,49,69,61,55,43,46,33,29,35,19,20,11,])
array_2 = np.array([66.5,55.7,49.5,61.6,67.1,65.9,70.3,67.7,61.7,59.8,79.4,67,64.1,58.4,64.5,65.9,66.6,56.8,42.7,27.9,20.3,19.3,21.5,19.4,22.1,22.8,17.8,17.3,16.5,15.1,16.3,13.2,12.3,7.7,8.2,11.3,8.7,7.8,])
array_1_name = "Popularity of the first name Jarred"
array_2_name = "Arson in Rhode Island"

# Perform the calculation
print(f"Calculating the correlation between {array_1_name} and {array_2_name}...")
correlation, r_squared, p_value = calculate_correlation(array_1, array_2)

# Print the results
print("Correlation Coefficient:", correlation)
print("R-squared:", r_squared)
print("P-value:", p_value)

Reuseable content

• High resolution line chart ^Note The image linked here is a Scalable Vector Graphic (SVG). It is the highest resolution that is possible to achieve. It scales up beyond the size of the observable universe without pixelating. You do not need to email me asking if I have a higher resolution image. I do not. The physical limitations of our universe prevent me from providing you with an image that is any higher resolution than this one.
  
  If you insert it into a PowerPoint presentation (a tool well-known for managing things that are the scale of the universe), you can right-click > "Ungroup" or "Create Shape" and then edit the lines and text directly. You can also change the colors this way.
  
  Alternatively you can use a tool like Inkscape.
  
• High resolution line chart, optimized for mobile
• Alternative high resolution line chart
• Scatterplot
• Portable line chart (png)
• Portable line chart (png), optimized for mobile
• Line chart for only Popularity of the first name Jarred
• Line chart for only Arson in Rhode Island
• The spurious research paper: Heat of the Moment: Exploring the Ignition of Arson in Rhode Island with the Popularity of the Name Jarred