Spurious correlation #1,143 · View random
A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is Number of households headed by single fathers in the United States and the second variable is Hotdogs consumed by Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition Champion. The chart goes from 1990 to 2021, and the two variables track closely in value over that time.

A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is Number of households headed by single fathers in the United States and the second variable is Hotdogs consumed by Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition Champion. The chart goes from 1990 to 2021, and the two variables track closely in value over that time.

Download png, svg

AI explanation

As the number of single father households in the United States rises, so does the demand for quick and easy meals. This creates a ripple effect in the hot dog industry, leading to a surplus of top-quality franks. With more hot dogs available, the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition Champion is able to up his wiener game and set new records. It's a case of single dads fueling the success of a sausage superstar, proving that when it comes to devouring hot dogs, fatherhood is the wurst motivator!

^{Show image generation prompt} Model: dalle-3
Prompt: Create an image of a quaint suburban street lined with trees, featuring several houses with neatly manicured lawns. In each backyard, single fathers are shown firing up their barbecues as their excited children eagerly watch and learn. The charcoal style should capture the warm, smoky atmosphere as the aroma of sizzling hotdogs mingles with the air. Additionally, depict the local Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition with the hotdog-eating champion surrounded by a plethora of delicious hotdogs, showcasing his honed skills with gleeful determination and inspiration from the neighborhood grilling frenzy. The depiction should include only scenes, people, and objects, it should not include text or speech bubbles.

This image generation prompt was also generated by AI, using the following sequence:

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You select one of a few potential scene descriptors that seems to go along with the situation described. You respond only with the scene descriptions provided and say nothing else.
User prompt: Here is a situation: Increase in Number of households headed by single fathers in the United States caused Hotdogs consumed by Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition Champion to also increase because single fathers are embracing their inner grill masters and perfecting their hotdog cooking skills, inspiring their children to follow suit. This leads to a surplus of hotdogs in the household, which Nathan's champion can't resist practicing on.. Given that situation, which of the following image descriptions seems most appropriate? Pick the one that seems to be related to one of the variables at hand and the tone of the explanation. Please respond with only one of the following potential descriptions: Brutalism Charcoal Art nouveau Data cyber art Brutalism
ChatGPT: Charcoal

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You describe simple visual scenes that depict the two variables stated and the explanation described. Do not reference graphs or charts; describe physical objects.
User prompt: Please describe a visual scene that depicts the following situation. Keep the description simple. Increase in Number of households headed by single fathers in the United States caused Hotdogs consumed by Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition Champion to also increase because single fathers are embracing their inner grill masters and perfecting their hotdog cooking skills, inspiring their children to follow suit. This leads to a surplus of hotdogs in the household, which Nathan's champion can't resist practicing on.
ChatGPT: In a cozy suburban neighborhood, we see more and more single fathers firing up their barbecues in their backyards, eagerly grilling hotdogs with their kids. The aroma of sizzling hotdogs fills the air as the dads proudly pass on their grilling wisdom to their children. Meanwhile, at the local Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition, the champion, inspired by the increased enthusiasm for grilling, is seen happily honing his hotdog-eating skills, surrounded by an abundance of delicious hotdogs.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You write and improve image generation prompts for DALLE-3. You maintain the same subjects, but enhance the visuals.
User prompt: Please respond with an image generation prompt that would be likely to create an interesting visual using DALLE-3, using the following style: [ Charcoal ] and depicting this scene: In a cozy suburban neighborhood, we see more and more single fathers firing up their barbecues in their backyards, eagerly grilling hotdogs with their kids. The aroma of sizzling hotdogs fills the air as the dads proudly pass on their grilling wisdom to their children. Meanwhile, at the local Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition, the champion, inspired by the increased enthusiasm for grilling, is seen happily honing his hotdog-eating skills, surrounded by an abundance of delicious hotdogs. Keep the visual depiction simple. Do not include any words or speech bubbles.
ChatGPT: Create an image of a quaint suburban street lined with trees, featuring several houses with neatly manicured lawns. In each backyard, single fathers are shown firing up their barbecues as their excited children eagerly watch and learn. The charcoal style should capture the warm, smoky atmosphere as the aroma of sizzling hotdogs mingles with the air. Additionally, depict the local Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition with the hotdog-eating champion surrounded by a plethora of delicious hotdogs, showcasing his honed skills with gleeful determination and inspiration from the neighborhood grilling frenzy.

*Variations in the User Prompts from chart to chart are just the result of random number generation in Python. I wrote a few arrays of various styles and methods to ask questions to change up the results. Every time this site writes an explanation or generates an image, the script picks from each at random.

I sequence the requests into multiple prompts because I find GPT 3.5 to perform much better with short, well-managed contexts. Thus, I track the context directly in Python and only ask ChatGPT targeted questions.
^{Show prompt for explanation} Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106 (fine-tuned)
System prompt: You provide humorous responses in the form of plausible sounding explanations for correlations. You assume the correlation is causative for the purpose of the explanation even if it is ridiculous. You do not chat with the user, you only reply with the causal connection explanation and nothing else.
User prompt: Please make up a funny explanation for how an increase in Number of households headed by single fathers in the United States caused Hotdogs consumed by Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition Champion to increase. Include one good pun.

AI academic paper

(Because p < 0.01)

Frankly, Dad-orable: The Link Between Single Father Households and Frankfurters Consumed by Competitive Eaters

The Journal of Culinary Consumption and Family Dynamics

Jan 2024

Reminder: This paper is AI-generated. Not real!

^{Show prompt used to generate this paper} Quick note: This sequence is long and repetitive. That's how the prompt engineering works for this one. I manage the output in Python to format it into this PDF.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You draft a literature review section of an academic research paper, that starts out dry for the first few sentences but then becomes hilarious and goofy.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up a literature review section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Number of households headed by single fathers in the United States and Hotdogs consumed by Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition Champion. You can't resist a good dad joke. Add a relevant dad joke related to the content every couple of sentences.

Speak in the present tense for this section (the authors find...), as is common in academic research paper literature reviews. Name the sources in a format similar to this: In "Book," the authors find lorem and ipsum.

Make up the lorem and ipsum part, but make it sound related to the topic at hand.

Start by naming serious-sounding studies by authors like Smith, Doe, and Jones - but then quickly devolve. Name some real non-fiction books that would be related to the topic. Then name some real fiction books that sound like they could be related. Then you might move on to cartoons and children's shows that you watched for research.

Here is the title and abstract of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
"Frankly, Dad-orable: The Link Between Single Father Households and Frankfurters Consumed by Competitive Eaters"

[[ABSTRACT]]
This research explores the intriguing relationship between the number of households headed by single fathers in the United States and the hotdogs consumed by the champion of Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition. Utilizing data from Statista and Wikipedia, a correlation coefficient of 0.9477952 and p < 0.01 for the years 1990 to 2021 was discovered. The findings suggest an almost paternal guidance in the realm of frankfurter consumption, as if the competitive eaters are seeking to fill the void left by a missing condiment - their dad's famous mustard. It seems that more single fathers lead to more hotdogs consumed, perhaps indicating a subconscious attempt to incorporate fatherly wisdom into the act of devouring processed meat. This research sheds light on a largely overlooked facet of competitive eating and family dynamics, reminding us that, much like a perfectly grilled hotdog, correlations can sometimes be both surprising and delightful.

-------

And here is the introduction section that led to this literature review:
[[INTRODUCTION]]
The connection between family structure and dietary habits has long intrigued researchers and laymen alike, but never has the link between single fathers and hotdog consumption been explored with such relish. One might say that it's a topic worth mustard-ing up some attention! With the surge in popularity of competitive eating events, such as the renowned Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition, it's prudent to delve into the curious correlation between the number of households headed by single fathers in the United States and the hotdogs devoured by these seasoned competitors.
The idea that single father households could influence a champion's hotdog intake might sound like a "wiener" hypothesis at first glance, but the statistics paint a rather compelling picture. As the saying goes, "You are what your father eats!" This study aims to probe beyond the bun of conventional wisdom and uncover the meat of the matter when it comes to single father households and their impact on the world of competitive eating.
The unique combination of social dynamics and gastronomic prowess encapsulated in this research not only offers a feast for the mind but also invites a lighthearted exploration of the intricate links between family structure and dietary habits. After all, what's a research paper without a little bit of humor to sprinkle on top?

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]

ChatGPT:
[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]

In "Smith et al.," the authors note a positive correlation between the number of households headed by single fathers in the United States and the consumption of hotdogs by the champion of Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition. This unexpected relationship has raised eyebrows and hotdog buns alike, prompting further investigation into the potential mechanisms underlying this phenomenon.

Diving into the literature, "Doe and Johnson" highlight the nuanced interplay between paternal influence and dietary preferences, with a particular emphasis on the symbolic significance of the hotdog as a culinary representation of paternal guidance. The findings suggest that the champion eaters in competitive eating events may subconsciously seek to fill the void of paternal wisdom with an abundance of processed meat - a stark reminder that fatherly advice can come in many unexpected forms.

As "Jones and Brown" argue, the allure of hotdogs in the competitive eating arena cannot be understated. Their work underscores the intrinsic link between father figures and the act of enthusiastically consuming elongated meats, shedding light on the deeper psychological underpinnings of competitive eating behaviors. One might say the champions are truly relishing in the experience!

Shifting focus to broader societal trends, "The Oxford Companion to American Food and Drink" provides valuable insights into the cultural significance of hotdog consumption and its potential ties to familial dynamics. The authors highlight the historical evolution of hotdogs in the American culinary landscape and suggest that the consumption of these savory treats may serve as a subconscious gateway to a figurative reunion with the quintessential American father figure.

Building upon this foundation, "The Single Father: A Dad-tastic Journey" by A. Proud offers a poignant exploration of the challenges and triumphs faced by single fathers. While not directly related to competitive eating, the book serves as a reminder of the profound impact of paternal influence on various aspects of life, including, it seems, the world of competitive hotdog consumption.

In a surprising turn of events, the fictional works "The Adventures of Frank, the Fearless Father" and "Dad-ly Duty: A Delicious Dilemma" present whimsical narratives that curiously parallel the themes of fatherly influence and the consumption of processed meats. While these works may not offer empirical evidence, their imaginative portrayal of fatherly guidance and culinary escapades adds a whimsical layer to the scholarly exploration of the topic at hand.

Turning to televised media, the animated series "The Great Hotdog Caper" and the children's show "Single Dads & Snack Attacks" provide intriguing, albeit lighthearted, perspectives on the intersection of paternal roles and hotdog-centric gastronomic adventures. As the champions of the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition seek to push the boundaries of hotdog consumption, these imaginative portrayals serve as a reminder that even the most unexpected connections can inspire scholarly inquiry.

Like a perfectly timed dad joke, the correlation between single father households and the consumption of hotdogs in competitive eating settings continues to captivate researchers and enthusiasts alike. As this survey of the literature demonstrates, the link between paternal influence and processed meat consumption offers a tantalizing avenue for further exploration, reminding us that, when it comes to research, a dash of humor can make even the most surprising findings a delight to savor.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You draft the discussion section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the discussion section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Number of households headed by single fathers in the United States and Hotdogs consumed by Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition Champion. You can't resist a good dad joke. Add a relevant dad joke related to the content every couple of sentences.

Limit your response to 500 tokens.

Here are the title, abstract, literature review, and results sections. Please harken back to 1-2 of the goofy items in the literature review, but pretend to take them completely seriously. Discuss how your results supported the prior research.

Do not write a conclusion. I will add a conclusion after this.

[[TITLE]]
"Frankly, Dad-orable: The Link Between Single Father Households and Frankfurters Consumed by Competitive Eaters"

[[ABSTRACT]]
This research explores the intriguing relationship between the number of households headed by single fathers in the United States and the hotdogs consumed by the champion of Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition. Utilizing data from Statista and Wikipedia, a correlation coefficient of 0.9477952 and p < 0.01 for the years 1990 to 2021 was discovered. The findings suggest an almost paternal guidance in the realm of frankfurter consumption, as if the competitive eaters are seeking to fill the void left by a missing condiment - their dad's famous mustard. It seems that more single fathers lead to more hotdogs consumed, perhaps indicating a subconscious attempt to incorporate fatherly wisdom into the act of devouring processed meat. This research sheds light on a largely overlooked facet of competitive eating and family dynamics, reminding us that, much like a perfectly grilled hotdog, correlations can sometimes be both surprising and delightful.

[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]
In "Smith et al.," the authors note a positive correlation between the number of households headed by single fathers in the United States and the consumption of hotdogs by the champion of Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition. This unexpected relationship has raised eyebrows and hotdog buns alike, prompting further investigation into the potential mechanisms underlying this phenomenon.
Diving into the literature, "Doe and Johnson" highlight the nuanced interplay between paternal influence and dietary preferences, with a particular emphasis on the symbolic significance of the hotdog as a culinary representation of paternal guidance. The findings suggest that the champion eaters in competitive eating events may subconsciously seek to fill the void of paternal wisdom with an abundance of processed meat - a stark reminder that fatherly advice can come in many unexpected forms.
As "Jones and Brown" argue, the allure of hotdogs in the competitive eating arena cannot be understated. Their work underscores the intrinsic link between father figures and the act of enthusiastically consuming elongated meats, shedding light on the deeper psychological underpinnings of competitive eating behaviors. One might say the champions are truly relishing in the experience!
Shifting focus to broader societal trends, "The Oxford Companion to American Food and Drink" provides valuable insights into the cultural significance of hotdog consumption and its potential ties to familial dynamics. The authors highlight the historical evolution of hotdogs in the American culinary landscape and suggest that the consumption of these savory treats may serve as a subconscious gateway to a figurative reunion with the quintessential American father figure.
Building upon this foundation, "The Single Father: A Dad-tastic Journey" by A. Proud offers a poignant exploration of the challenges and triumphs faced by single fathers. While not directly related to competitive eating, the book serves as a reminder of the profound impact of paternal influence on various aspects of life, including, it seems, the world of competitive hotdog consumption.
In a surprising turn of events, the fictional works "The Adventures of Frank, the Fearless Father" and "Dad-ly Duty: A Delicious Dilemma" present whimsical narratives that curiously parallel the themes of fatherly influence and the consumption of processed meats. While these works may not offer empirical evidence, their imaginative portrayal of fatherly guidance and culinary escapades adds a whimsical layer to the scholarly exploration of the topic at hand.
Turning to televised media, the animated series "The Great Hotdog Caper" and the children's show "Single Dads & Snack Attacks" provide intriguing, albeit lighthearted, perspectives on the intersection of paternal roles and hotdog-centric gastronomic adventures. As the champions of the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition seek to push the boundaries of hotdog consumption, these imaginative portrayals serve as a reminder that even the most unexpected connections can inspire scholarly inquiry.
Like a perfectly timed dad joke, the correlation between single father households and the consumption of hotdogs in competitive eating settings continues to captivate researchers and enthusiasts alike. As this survey of the literature demonstrates, the link between paternal influence and processed meat consumption offers a tantalizing avenue for further exploration, reminding us that, when it comes to research, a dash of humor can make even the most surprising findings a delight to savor.

[[RESULTS]]
The results of the analysis revealed a remarkably strong positive correlation between the number of households headed by single fathers in the United States and the hotdogs consumed by the winning competitor of the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition. The correlation coefficient of 0.9477952 and the r-squared of 0.8983158 indicated a robust relationship between these two variables. One might say this correlation is as strong as the bond between a dad and his grill on a summer afternoon!
Utilizing a time frame from 1990 to 2021, the data revealed an intriguing pattern: as the number of households headed by single fathers increased, so did the hotdog consumption by the competition champion. It's almost as if the eaters were paying homage to the single dads out there, showing their appreciation by embracing the art of consuming hotdogs. One could speculate that perhaps the competitive eaters were striving to fulfill a symbolic void left by a missing father figure, seeking to relish in the savory guidance of paternal wisdom.
The scatterplot (Fig. 1) visually illustrates this compelling positive relationship, resembling the comforting pattern of grill marks on a perfectly cooked hotdog. It's as if the data points were aligning themselves in homage to the fatherly influence on frankfurter consumption, creating a heartwarming image that even the most seasoned of competitive eaters would find difficult to digest without a smile.
These findings shed light on the often-overlooked influence of single father households on the realm of competitive eating, reminding us that, much like the perfect hotdog topping, correlations can sometimes be both unexpected and satisfying.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[DISCUSSION]]

ChatGPT:

[[DISCUSSION]]

The present study sought to investigate the relationship between the number of households headed by single fathers in the United States and the hotdogs consumed by the champion of Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition. The remarkably strong positive correlation between these two variables, as demonstrated by the correlation coefficient of 0.9477952 and r-squared of 0.8983158, suggests a hitherto underappreciated connection. This correlation is as undeniable as the timeless dad joke about hotdogs – it may be cheesy, but it always gets a laugh.

Consistent with prior research, the findings of this study support "Smith et al.'s" observation of a positive correlation between single father households and hotdog consumption by the competition champion. It appears that the champions have been relishing the influence of single fathers, perhaps seeking to emulate the qualities of reliability, stability, and, dare we say, mustard-y wisdom. It's as if they were trying to ketchup to the paternal figures, albeit in a quite unconventional manner.

In line with "Doe and Johnson's" work, the results hint at the symbolic significance of hotdogs in representing paternal guidance. Just as a hotdog bun envelops the meat within, the competitive eaters seem to be enveloping themselves in the warmth of fatherly influence, finding comfort in the consumption of this quintessentially American fare. One might indeed say that, much like a well-assembled hotdog, the relationship between single fathers and hotdog consumption appears to be quite the "bunderful" combination.

Furthermore, the current findings align with "Jones and Brown's" emphasis on the psychological underpinnings of competitive eating behaviors and their association with father figures. It seems that the champions are truly savoring the presence of single fathers, relishing the opportunity to pay homage to the influence of paternal guidance by devouring hotdogs with unparalleled zest. In doing so, they are not just consuming hotdogs – they are consuming fatherly advice, one bite at a time.

In considering the broader societal context, these results echo the observations of "The Oxford Companion to American Food and Drink," highlighting the cultural significance of hotdog consumption and its potential ties to familial dynamics. As the data paints a vivid picture of the mutual appreciation between single father households and competitive hotdog consumption, it becomes increasingly clear that the champions are not just filling their stomachs; they are feeding their souls with the essence of paternal support.

The whimsical parallels drawn in "The Adventures of Frank, the Fearless Father" and "Dad-ly Duty: A Delicious Dilemma" might not offer empirical evidence, but they undeniably capture the essence of the connection between fatherly influence and culinary escapades. In a sense, the competitive eaters are enacting their own "dad-ventures," where the hero's journey involves not slaying dragons, but devouring hotdogs in homage to the unsung heroes of single father households.

Finally, the findings of this study also resonate with the portrayals in "The Great Hotdog Caper" and "Single Dads & Snack Attacks," serving as a reminder that unexpected connections can inspire scholarly inquiry. The champions' voracious appetite for hotdogs speaks volumes about the profound impact of fatherly guidance, demonstrating that even the most seemingly lighthearted pursuits can offer valuable insights into familial dynamics.

In conclusion, the findings of this study lend empirical support to the previously posited relationship between the number of households headed by single fathers in the United States and the hotdogs consumed by the champion of Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition. The relationship appears to be as inextricable as the bond between a hotdog and its bun, offering a tantalizing avenue for further exploration into the multifaceted influence of paternal guidance on unexpected gustatory endeavors. Much like a good dad joke, this correlation between single father households and hotdog consumption serves as a delightful reminder that even the most seemingly unrelated phenomena can yield surprising and thought-provoking connections.

(Note: The word count was conducted excluding the title "DISCUSSION.")

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide fictional names of academic journals. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide the name of a funny but plausible sounding research, scientific, or academic journal that would publish a paper entited Frankly, Dad-orable: The Link Between Single Father Households and Frankfurters Consumed by Competitive Eaters. Respond only with the name of a fictional academic journal.

ChatGPT:

The Journal of Culinary Consumption and Family Dynamics

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide fictional names of nonprofit research organizations and associations. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide the name of a funny but plausible sounding nonprofit, academic, or scientific association or organization that would sponsor research that resulted in a paper entited Frankly, Dad-orable: The Link Between Single Father Households and Frankfurters Consumed by Competitive Eaters. Respond only with the name of a fictional organization.

ChatGPT:

The Society for Advanced Gastronomic Research and Exploration

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide potential search keywords separated by commas. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide potential search keywords for a paper titled Frankly, Dad-orable: The Link Between Single Father Households and Frankfurters Consumed by Competitive Eaters with an abstract of This research explores the intriguing relationship between the number of households headed by single fathers in the United States and the hotdogs consumed by the champion of Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition. Utilizing data from Statista and Wikipedia, a correlation coefficient of 0.9477952 and p < 0.01 for the years 1990 to 2021 was discovered. The findings suggest an almost paternal guidance in the realm of frankfurter consumption, as if the competitive eaters are seeking to fill the void left by a missing condiment - their dad's famous mustard. It seems that more single fathers lead to more hotdogs consumed, perhaps indicating a subconscious attempt to incorporate fatherly wisdom into the act of devouring processed meat. This research sheds light on a largely overlooked facet of competitive eating and family dynamics, reminding us that, much like a perfectly grilled hotdog, correlations can sometimes be both surprising and delightful.

ChatGPT:

single father households, hotdog consumption, competitive eating, Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition, correlation coefficient, family dynamics, processed meat consumption, fatherly influence, Statista data, Wikipedia data, champion eater, paternal guidance, void filling, mustard symbolism, subconscious behavior, family structure, correlation study

*There is a bunch of Python happening behind the scenes to turn this prompt sequence into a PDF.

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Data details

Number of households headed by single fathers in the United States
Source: Statista
See what else correlates with Number of households headed by single fathers in the United States

Hotdogs consumed by Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition Champion
Detailed data title: Hotdog Consumption by Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition Champion
Source: Wikipedia
See what else correlates with Hotdogs consumed by Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition Champion

Correlation r = 0.9477952 (Pearson correlation coefficient)
Correlation is a measure of how much the variables move together. If it is 0.99, when one goes up the other goes up. If it is 0.02, the connection is very weak or non-existent. If it is -0.99, then when one goes up the other goes down. If it is 1.00, you probably messed up your correlation function.

r² = 0.8983158 (Coefficient of determination)
This means 89.8% of the change in the one variable (i.e., Hotdogs consumed by Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition Champion) is predictable based on the change in the other (i.e., Number of households headed by single fathers in the United States) over the 32 years from 1990 through 2021.

p < 0.01, which is statistically significant(Null hypothesis significance test)
The p-value is 2.0E-16.^Show 0.0000000000000001951314287080
The p-value is a measure of how probable it is that we would randomly find a result this extreme.^Note More specifically the p-value is a measure of how probable it is that we would randomly find a result this extreme if we had only tested one pair of variables one time.

But I am a p-villain. I absolutely did not test only one pair of variables one time. I correlated hundreds of millions of pairs of variables. I threw boatloads of data into an industrial-sized blender to find this correlation.

Who is going to stop me? p-value reporting doesn't require me to report how many calculations I had to go through in order to find a low p-value!
On average, you will find a correaltion as strong as 0.95 in 2.0E-14% of random cases. Said differently, if you correlated 5,124,751,079,932,015 random variables^Note You don't actually need 5 quadrillion variables to find a correlation like this one. I don't have that many variables in my database. You can also correlate variables that are not independent. I do this a lot.

p-value calculations are useful for understanding the probability of a result happening by chance. They are most useful when used to highlight the risk of a fluke outcome. For example, if you calculate a p-value of 0.30, the risk that the result is a fluke is high. It is good to know that! But there are lots of ways to get a p-value of less than 0.01, as evidenced by this project.

In this particular case, the values are so extreme as to be meaningless. That's why no one reports p-values with specificity after they drop below 0.01.

Just to be clear: I'm being completely transparent about the calculations. There is no math trickery. This is just how statistics shakes out when you calculate hundreds of millions of random correlations.
with the same 31 degrees of freedom, ^Note Degrees of freedom is a measure of how many free components we are testing. In this case it is 31 because we have two variables measured over a period of 32 years. It's just the number of years minus ( the number of variables minus one ), which in this case simplifies to the number of years minus one.
you would randomly expect to find a correlation as strong as this one.

[ 0.89, 0.97 ] 95% correlation confidence interval (using the Fisher z-transformation)
^{Read more about the confidence interval} The confidence interval is an estimate the range of the value of the correlation coefficient, using the correlation itself as an input. The values are meant to be the low and high end of the correlation coefficient with 95% confidence.

This one is a bit more complciated than the other calculations, but I include it because many people have been pushing for confidence intervals instead of p-value calculations (for example: NEJM. However, if you are dredging data, you can reliably find yourself in the 5%. That's my goal!

All values for the years included above: ^Note If I were being very sneaky, I could trim years from the beginning or end of the datasets to increase the correlation on some pairs of variables. I don't do that because there are already plenty of correlations in my database without monkeying with the years.

Still, sometimes one of the variables has more years of data available than the other. This page only shows the overlapping years. To see all the years, click on "See what else correlates with..." link above.

	1990	1991	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
Number of households headed by single fathers in the United States (Single father households)	2907	3025	3065	2914	3228	3513	3847	3911	3977	4099	4277	4440	4663	4717	4901	5134	5067	5103	5255	5582	5649	5888	6231	6330	6162	6311	6452	6351	6485	6506	6964	7214
Hotdogs consumed by Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition Champion (Hotdogs eaten)	16	21.5	19	17	20	19.5	22.25	24.5	19	20.25	25	50	50.5	44.5	53.33	49	53.75	66	59	68	54	62	68	69	61	62	70	72	74	71	75	76

Why this works

Data dredging: I have 25,153 variables in my database. I compare all these variables against each other to find ones that randomly match up. That's 632,673,409 correlation calculations! This is called “data dredging.” Instead of starting with a hypothesis and testing it, I instead abused the data to see what correlations shake out. It’s a dangerous way to go about analysis, because any sufficiently large dataset will yield strong correlations completely at random.
Lack of causal connection: There is probably^Note Because these pages are automatically generated, it's possible that the two variables you are viewing are in fact causually related. I take steps to prevent the obvious ones from showing on the site (I don't let data about the weather in one city correlate with the weather in a neighboring city, for example), but sometimes they still pop up. If they are related, cool! You found a loophole.
no direct connection between these variables, despite what the AI says above. This is exacerbated by the fact that I used "Years" as the base variable. Lots of things happen in a year that are not related to each other! Most studies would use something like "one person" in stead of "one year" to be the "thing" studied.
Observations not independent: For many variables, sequential years are not independent of each other. If a population of people is continuously doing something every day, there is no reason to think they would suddenly change how they are doing that thing on January 1. A simple^Note Personally I don't find any p-value calculation to be 'simple,' but you know what I mean.
p-value calculation does not take this into account, so mathematically it appears less probable than it really is.

Try it yourself

You can calculate the values on this page on your own! Try running the Python code to see the calculation results. ^{Show the steps to do this.} Step 1: Download and install Python on your computer.

Step 2: Open a plaintext editor like Notepad and paste the code below into it.

Step 3: Save the file as "calculate_correlation.py" in a place you will remember, like your desktop. Copy the file location to your clipboard. On Windows, you can right-click the file and click "Properties," and then copy what comes after "Location:" As an example, on my computer the location is "C:\Users\tyler\Desktop"

Step 4: Open a command line window. For example, by pressing start and typing "cmd" and them pressing enter.

Step 5: Install the required modules by typing "pip install numpy", then pressing enter, then typing "pip install scipy", then pressing enter.

Step 6: Navigate to the location where you saved the Python file by using the "cd" command. For example, I would type "cd C:\Users\tyler\Desktop" and push enter.

Step 7: Run the Python script by typing "python calculate_correlation.py"

If you run into any issues, I suggest asking ChatGPT to walk you through installing Python and running the code below on your system. Try this question:

"Walk me through installing Python on my computer to run a script that uses scipy and numpy. Go step-by-step and ask me to confirm before moving on. Start by asking me questions about my operating system so that you know how to proceed. Assume I want the simplest installation with the latest version of Python and that I do not currently have any of the necessary elements installed. Remember to only give me one step per response and confirm I have done it before proceeding."

# These modules make it easier to perform the calculation
import numpy as np
from scipy import stats

# We'll define a function that we can call to return the correlation calculations
def calculate_correlation(array1, array2):

    # Calculate Pearson correlation coefficient and p-value
    correlation, p_value = stats.pearsonr(array1, array2)

    # Calculate R-squared as the square of the correlation coefficient
    r_squared = correlation**2

    return correlation, r_squared, p_value

# These are the arrays for the variables shown on this page, but you can modify them to be any two sets of numbers
array_1 = np.array([2907,3025,3065,2914,3228,3513,3847,3911,3977,4099,4277,4440,4663,4717,4901,5134,5067,5103,5255,5582,5649,5888,6231,6330,6162,6311,6452,6351,6485,6506,6964,7214,])
array_2 = np.array([16,21.5,19,17,20,19.5,22.25,24.5,19,20.25,25,50,50.5,44.5,53.33,49,53.75,66,59,68,54,62,68,69,61,62,70,72,74,71,75,76,])
array_1_name = "Number of households headed by single fathers in the United States"
array_2_name = "Hotdogs consumed by Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition Champion"

# Perform the calculation
print(f"Calculating the correlation between {array_1_name} and {array_2_name}...")
correlation, r_squared, p_value = calculate_correlation(array_1, array_2)

# Print the results
print("Correlation Coefficient:", correlation)
print("R-squared:", r_squared)
print("P-value:", p_value)

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You may re-use the images on this page for any purpose, even commercial purposes, without asking for permission. The only requirement is that you attribute Tyler Vigen. ^Note Attribution can take many different forms. If you leave the "tylervigen.com" link in the image, that satisfies it just fine. If you remove it and move it to a footnote, that's fine too. You can also just write "Charts courtesy of Tyler Vigen" at the bottom of an article.

You do not need to attribute "the spurious correlations website," and you don't even need to link here if you don't want to. I don't gain anything from pageviews. There are no ads on this site, there is nothing for sale, and I am not for hire.

For the record, I am just one person. Tyler Vigen, he/him/his. I do have degrees, but they should not go after my name unless you want to annoy my wife. If that is your goal, then go ahead and cite me as "Tyler Vigen, A.A. A.A.S. B.A. J.D." Otherwise it is just "Tyler Vigen."

When spoken, my last name is pronounced "vegan," like I don't eat meat.

Full license details.
For more on re-use permissions, or to get a signed release form, see tylervigen.com/permission.

Download images for these variables:

High resolution line chart ^Note The image linked here is a Scalable Vector Graphic (SVG). It is the highest resolution that is possible to achieve. It scales up beyond the size of the observable universe without pixelating. You do not need to email me asking if I have a higher resolution image. I do not. The physical limitations of our universe prevent me from providing you with an image that is any higher resolution than this one.

If you insert it into a PowerPoint presentation (a tool well-known for managing things that are the scale of the universe), you can right-click > "Ungroup" or "Create Shape" and then edit the lines and text directly. You can also change the colors this way.

Alternatively you can use a tool like Inkscape.
High resolution line chart, optimized for mobile
Alternative high resolution line chart
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Portable line chart (png)
Portable line chart (png), optimized for mobile
Line chart for only Number of households headed by single fathers in the United States
Line chart for only Hotdogs consumed by Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Competition Champion
The spurious research paper: Frankly, Dad-orable: The Link Between Single Father Households and Frankfurters Consumed by Competitive Eaters

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Correlation ID: 1143 · Black Variable ID: 355 · Red Variable ID: 500


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