Spurious correlation #4,172 · View random
A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is Popularity of the first name Menachem and the second variable is The number of structural iron and steel workers in Vermont. The chart goes from 2004 to 2022, and the two variables track closely in value over that time.

A linear line chart with years as the X-axis and two variables on the Y-axis. The first variable is Popularity of the first name Menachem and the second variable is The number of structural iron and steel workers in Vermont. The chart goes from 2004 to 2022, and the two variables track closely in value over that time.

Download png, svg

AI explanation

As the name Menachem gained prominence, parents subconsciously wanted their children to have 'iron-willed' determination like the biblical figure. This led to a surge in kids pursuing careers in steel work, oddly concentrating in the picturesque state of Vermont. The Menachem effect on the steel industry is riveting, to say the least!

^{Show image generation prompt} Model: dalle-3
Prompt: Generate an image that showcases a dynamic contrast where the quiet charm of a Vermont town merges with the industrious energy of young adults skillfully crafting steel beams for a new building. The elegant houses in the background should exude a sense of traditional charm, while the group of determined young adults, including those named Menachem, are depicted wearing hard hats and bright orange vests. The scene should capture the dedication and resilience of the workers as they contribute to the growth and opportunity in the steel industry. The image should reflect the impact of their work and the trend inspired by the name Menachem, showcasing a riveting scene of industrious growth and the spirit of determination. The depiction should include only scenes, people, and objects, it should not include text or speech bubbles.

This image generation prompt was also generated by AI, using the following sequence:

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You select one of a few potential scene descriptors that seems to go along with the variables described. You respond only with the scene descriptions provided and say nothing else.
User prompt: Here are two variables: Popularity of the first name Menachem and The number of structural iron and steel workers in Vermont. Given these, which of the following image style descriptions seems most appropriate? Pick the one that seems to be related to one of the variables at hand. Please respond with only one of the following potential descriptions: An image that looks like it is a scene from A Disney Movie A Discovery magazine cover image A scene from Skyrim a funny image macro Glitch art
ChatGPT: A Discovery magazine cover image

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You describe simple visual scenes that depict the two variables stated. You combine both variables into one scene.
User prompt: Please describe a visual scene that prominently depicts both Popularity of the first name Menachem and The number of structural iron and steel workers in Vermont, in the following situation: As the name Menachem gained prominence, parents subconsciously wanted their children to have 'iron-willed' determination like the biblical figure. This led to a surge in kids pursuing careers in steel work, oddly concentrating in the picturesque state of Vermont. The Menachem effect on the steel industry is riveting, to say the least!. Keep the description simple.
ChatGPT: In a charming Vermont town, a row of elegant houses line the quiet streets. In the distance, a group of determined young adults in hard hats and bright orange vests are skillfully crafting steel beams for a new building. Among them, a few are named Menachem, proudly displaying their iron-willed determination in their chosen profession. The name Menachem has sparked a trend, as parents across the state hope their children will inherit the same strength and resilience. The impact of Menachem on the steel industry in Vermont is evident, creating a riveting scene of growth and opportunity.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You write and improve image generation prompts for DALLE-3. You maintain the same subjects, but enhance the visuals.
User prompt: Please respond with an image generation prompt that would be likely to create an interesting visual using DALLE-3, using the following style: [ A Discovery magazine cover image ] and depicting this scene: In a charming Vermont town, a row of elegant houses line the quiet streets. In the distance, a group of determined young adults in hard hats and bright orange vests are skillfully crafting steel beams for a new building. Among them, a few are named Menachem, proudly displaying their iron-willed determination in their chosen profession. The name Menachem has sparked a trend, as parents across the state hope their children will inherit the same strength and resilience. The impact of Menachem on the steel industry in Vermont is evident, creating a riveting scene of growth and opportunity. Keep the visual depiction simple. Do not include any words or speech bubbles.
ChatGPT: Generate an image that showcases a dynamic contrast where the quiet charm of a Vermont town merges with the industrious energy of young adults skillfully crafting steel beams for a new building. The elegant houses in the background should exude a sense of traditional charm, while the group of determined young adults, including those named Menachem, are depicted wearing hard hats and bright orange vests. The scene should capture the dedication and resilience of the workers as they contribute to the growth and opportunity in the steel industry. The image should reflect the impact of their work and the trend inspired by the name Menachem, showcasing a riveting scene of industrious growth and the spirit of determination.

*Variations in the User Prompts from chart to chart are just the result of random number generation in Python. I wrote a few arrays of various styles and methods to ask questions to change up the results. Every time this site writes an explanation or generates an image, the script picks from each at random.

I sequence the requests into multiple prompts because I find GPT 3.5 to perform much better with short, well-managed contexts. Thus, I track the context directly in Python and only ask ChatGPT targeted questions.
^{Show prompt for explanation} Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106 (fine-tuned)
System prompt: You provide humorous responses in the form of plausible sounding explanations for correlations. You assume the correlation is causative for the purpose of the explanation even if it is ridiculous. You do not chat with the user, you only reply with the causal connection explanation and nothing else.
User prompt: Please make up a funny explanation for how an increase in Popularity of the first name Menachem caused The number of structural iron and steel workers in Vermont to increase.

AI academic paper

(Because p < 0.01)

I'm Steel in Love with Menachem: The Quirky Correlation between Name Popularity and Structural Iron and Steel Workers in Vermont

The Journal of Eccentric Sociological Studies

Jan 2024

Reminder: This paper is AI-generated. Not real!

^{Show prompt used to generate this paper} Quick note: This sequence is long and repetitive. That's how the prompt engineering works for this one. I manage the output in Python to format it into this PDF.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You draft a literature review section of an academic research paper, that starts out dry for the first few sentences but then becomes hilarious and goofy.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up a literature review section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Popularity of the first name Menachem and The number of structural iron and steel workers in Vermont. Make lots of jokes, goofy observations, and puns.

Speak in the present tense for this section (the authors find...), as is common in academic research paper literature reviews. Name the sources in a format similar to this: In "Book," the authors find lorem and ipsum.

Make up the lorem and ipsum part, but make it sound related to the topic at hand.

Start by naming serious-sounding studies by authors like Smith, Doe, and Jones - but then quickly devolve. Name some real non-fiction books that would be related to the topic. Then name some real fiction books that sound like they could be related. Then name some movies that you watched that are tangentially related to the topic.

Here is the title and abstract of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
"I'm Steel in Love with Menachem: The Quirky Correlation between Name Popularity and Structural Iron and Steel Workers in Vermont"

[[ABSTRACT]]
This research delves into the unexpected relationship between the popularity of the first name "Menachem" and the number of structural iron and steel workers in the picturesque state of Vermont. Leveraging data from the US Social Security Administration and the Bureau of Labor Statistics from the years 2004 to 2022, a correlation coefficient of 0.6433022 with a statistically significant p-value of less than 0.01 was observed. The findings, while seemingly whimsical, raise intriguing questions about the potential influence of nomenclature on career choices and the cultural tapestry of the Green Mountain State. While the results may seem as sturdy as steel, further study is warranted to understand the underlying mechanisms driving this peculiar correlation.

-------

And here is the introduction section that led to this literature review:
[[INTRODUCTION]]
The relationship between names and occupations has long been a source of curiosity. Names can evoke certain images or expectations, and the field of onomastics, the study of names, has plumbed the depths of the human psyche to understand the implications of nomenclature on various aspects of life. In this vein, our research uncovers the enchanting and enigmatic connection between the popularity of the first name "Menachem" and the occupation of structural iron and steel work in the delightful state of Vermont.
Vermont, known for its rolling hills, verdant landscapes, and picturesque villages, might not immediately bring to mind images of steel-clad structures and towering skyscrapers. Nevertheless, the state plays a role in the vibrant iron and steel industry, albeit in a more quaint and bucolic manner.
The name "Menachem," with its origin in Hebrew and its various linguistic resonances, may strike some as possessing an aura of strength and resilience. How intriguing it is then, that this seemingly sturdy name bears a statistically significant correlation with the number of individuals engaging in the robust and resolute profession of structural iron and steel work in Vermont.
We invite the reader to don their mental hard hats and steel-toed boots as we venture into this fascinating exploration of nomenclature, occupation, and the idiosyncrasies of human behavior. The findings promise to add a touch of whimsy and wonder to the often austere world of empirical research.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]

ChatGPT:
[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]

The correlation between one's given name and their choice of vocation has been a subject of interest for decades. Smith et al. (2005) investigated the influence of first names on career choices and found no significant relationship, while Doe (2010) examined the cultural implications of nomenclature on occupational preferences, coming to similar conclusions. However, Jones (2018) delved into the psychological nuances of name associations and its impact on professional trajectories, with less conclusive results.

Shifting focus to more lighthearted and tangentially related literature, "The Name Game: Exploring the Quirkiness of Nomenclature in Modern Society" by Johnson and Smith (2014) offers an amusing perspective on the whimsical connections between names and various aspects of life, including career paths. On a more fictional note, "Steel Magnolias" by Robert Harling (1987) presents a cast of characters whose names evoke both strength and charm, much like the curious correlation under investigation. And who could forget "Iron Man," the film that combines steel and charisma in a superheroic blend, subtly resonating with the sturdy yet enigmatic name of "Menachem."

In "The Correlation Chronicles," a movie that totally exists in our imagination, a team of intrepid researchers embark on an unforeseen odyssey to unravel the inexplicable link between first names and occupations. As they traverse the quirky landscape of data analysis and statistical anomalies, hilarity ensues as they uncover unexpected patterns and marvel at the enigmatic forces at play. While not directly related to our topic, the humorous escapades depicted in "The Correlation Chronicles" mirror the delightfully puzzling nature of our own research endeavor.

The rich tapestry of literature and media provides a charming backdrop to our investigation, infusing the scholarly pursuit with whimsy and levity as we navigate the uncharted territory of name-centered occupational predilections.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You draft the methodology section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the methodology section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Popularity of the first name Menachem and The number of structural iron and steel workers in Vermont. Make lots of jokes, goofy observations, and puns.

Your research team collected data from all across the internet, but mostly just used information from US Social Security Administration and Bureau of Larbor Statistics . You used data from 2004 to 2022

Make up the research methods you don't know. Make them a bit goofy and convoluted.

Here is the title, abstract, and introduction of the paper:
[[TITLE]]
"I'm Steel in Love with Menachem: The Quirky Correlation between Name Popularity and Structural Iron and Steel Workers in Vermont"

[[ABSTRACT]]
This research delves into the unexpected relationship between the popularity of the first name "Menachem" and the number of structural iron and steel workers in the picturesque state of Vermont. Leveraging data from the US Social Security Administration and the Bureau of Labor Statistics from the years 2004 to 2022, a correlation coefficient of 0.6433022 with a statistically significant p-value of less than 0.01 was observed. The findings, while seemingly whimsical, raise intriguing questions about the potential influence of nomenclature on career choices and the cultural tapestry of the Green Mountain State. While the results may seem as sturdy as steel, further study is warranted to understand the underlying mechanisms driving this peculiar correlation.

[[INTRODUCTION]]
The relationship between names and occupations has long been a source of curiosity. Names can evoke certain images or expectations, and the field of onomastics, the study of names, has plumbed the depths of the human psyche to understand the implications of nomenclature on various aspects of life. In this vein, our research uncovers the enchanting and enigmatic connection between the popularity of the first name "Menachem" and the occupation of structural iron and steel work in the delightful state of Vermont.
Vermont, known for its rolling hills, verdant landscapes, and picturesque villages, might not immediately bring to mind images of steel-clad structures and towering skyscrapers. Nevertheless, the state plays a role in the vibrant iron and steel industry, albeit in a more quaint and bucolic manner.
The name "Menachem," with its origin in Hebrew and its various linguistic resonances, may strike some as possessing an aura of strength and resilience. How intriguing it is then, that this seemingly sturdy name bears a statistically significant correlation with the number of individuals engaging in the robust and resolute profession of structural iron and steel work in Vermont.
We invite the reader to don their mental hard hats and steel-toed boots as we venture into this fascinating exploration of nomenclature, occupation, and the idiosyncrasies of human behavior. The findings promise to add a touch of whimsy and wonder to the often austere world of empirical research.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[METHODOLOGY]]

ChatGPT:

[[METHODOLOGY]]

Data Collection:
The data collection process for this study resembled a scavenger hunt, with the research team combing through the depths of the internet to unearth nuggets of information. The primary sources of data were the US Social Security Administration's records on the popularity of first names over the years 2004 to 2022, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics' employment data for structural iron and steel workers in the state of Vermont within the same time frame. Like intrepid explorers, the researchers ventured through the digital wilderness, navigating the labyrinthine websites of government agencies to procure the requisite datasets for analysis.

Correlation Analysis:
To ascertain the potential relationship between the popularity of the name "Menachem" and the number of structural iron and steel workers in Vermont, a correlation analysis was conducted. The research team, armed with statistical software and copious amounts of caffeinated beverages, computed the correlation coefficient and associated p-values to determine the strength and significance of any observed associations. The analysis involved juxtaposing the ebbs and flows of "Menachem" popularity with the fluctuations in the workforce of iron and steel artisans, an exercise that revealed intriguing patterns amidst the numerical chaos.

Control Variables:
In order to savor the true flavor of this quirky quest, the research team took great care to identify and account for potential confounding variables that might cast a shadow of doubt over the observed relationship. Variables such as overall population dynamics, economic trends, and social influences were examined with the precision of a discerning sommelier evaluating the nuances of a fine wine. By cleansing the dataset of potential contaminants, the research team aimed to ensure that the observed correlation between "Menachem" and structural iron and steel workers would stand as sturdy as the structures wrought by the artisans themselves.

Ethical Considerations:
In line with the ethical precepts governing scientific inquiry, the research team took pains to handle the data with the reverence and solemnity befitting such an unconventional endeavor. Anonymity and confidentiality were maintained, with names and other personal identifiers shielded behind the veil of statistical abstraction. Furthermore, the research team refrained from any attempts to influence the popularity of the name "Menachem" or the career choices of Vermont's denizens, opting instead to observe and analyze the organic interplay of nomenclature and occupation.

Validation and Sensitivity Analysis:
To fortify the robustness of the findings and fend off potential detractors, the research team conducted validation procedures and sensitivity analyses. The results were subjected to rigorous scrutiny, akin to crafting an impregnable suit of armor to withstand the onslaught of skepticism. Sensitivity analyses explored the impact of varying analytical approaches and data segmentation strategies, ensuring that the observed correlation was not a mere mirage dancing on the statistical sands.

Reliability and Reproducibility:
In adherence to the scholarly ethos of transparency and reproducibility, the research team made every effort to document the methodology, analytical techniques, and datasets with meticulous detail. The intention was to furnish an immaculate blueprint that future scholars, armed with intellectual curiosity and a penchant for the unconventional, could utilize to validate and extend the findings of this study.

The meticulous orchestration of these methodological endeavors constitutes the groundwork upon which the enchanting correlation between the name "Menachem" and structural iron and steel workers in Vermont was illuminated, akin to uncovering hidden treasure in the academic realm.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You draft the discussion section of an academic research paper.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up the discussion section of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Popularity of the first name Menachem and The number of structural iron and steel workers in Vermont. Make lots of jokes, goofy observations, and puns.

Limit your response to 500 tokens.

Here are the title, abstract, literature review, and results sections. Please harken back to 1-2 of the goofy items in the literature review, but pretend to take them completely seriously. Discuss how your results supported the prior research.

Do not write a conclusion. I will add a conclusion after this.

[[TITLE]]
"I'm Steel in Love with Menachem: The Quirky Correlation between Name Popularity and Structural Iron and Steel Workers in Vermont"

[[ABSTRACT]]
This research delves into the unexpected relationship between the popularity of the first name "Menachem" and the number of structural iron and steel workers in the picturesque state of Vermont. Leveraging data from the US Social Security Administration and the Bureau of Labor Statistics from the years 2004 to 2022, a correlation coefficient of 0.6433022 with a statistically significant p-value of less than 0.01 was observed. The findings, while seemingly whimsical, raise intriguing questions about the potential influence of nomenclature on career choices and the cultural tapestry of the Green Mountain State. While the results may seem as sturdy as steel, further study is warranted to understand the underlying mechanisms driving this peculiar correlation.

[[LITERATURE REVIEW]]
The correlation between one's given name and their choice of vocation has been a subject of interest for decades. Smith et al. (2005) investigated the influence of first names on career choices and found no significant relationship, while Doe (2010) examined the cultural implications of nomenclature on occupational preferences, coming to similar conclusions. However, Jones (2018) delved into the psychological nuances of name associations and its impact on professional trajectories, with less conclusive results.
Shifting focus to more lighthearted and tangentially related literature, "The Name Game: Exploring the Quirkiness of Nomenclature in Modern Society" by Johnson and Smith (2014) offers an amusing perspective on the whimsical connections between names and various aspects of life, including career paths. On a more fictional note, "Steel Magnolias" by Robert Harling (1987) presents a cast of characters whose names evoke both strength and charm, much like the curious correlation under investigation. And who could forget "Iron Man," the film that combines steel and charisma in a superheroic blend, subtly resonating with the sturdy yet enigmatic name of "Menachem."
In "The Correlation Chronicles," a movie that totally exists in our imagination, a team of intrepid researchers embark on an unforeseen odyssey to unravel the inexplicable link between first names and occupations. As they traverse the quirky landscape of data analysis and statistical anomalies, hilarity ensues as they uncover unexpected patterns and marvel at the enigmatic forces at play. While not directly related to our topic, the humorous escapades depicted in "The Correlation Chronicles" mirror the delightfully puzzling nature of our own research endeavor.
The rich tapestry of literature and media provides a charming backdrop to our investigation, infusing the scholarly pursuit with whimsy and levity as we navigate the uncharted territory of name-centered occupational predilections.

[[RESULTS]]
The results of this study revealed a striking correlation between the popularity of the first name "Menachem" and the number of structural iron and steel workers in the picturesque state of Vermont. For the time period from 2004 to 2022, a correlation coefficient of 0.6433022 was observed, indicating a moderately strong positive relationship between these seemingly incongruent variables. The coefficient of determination (r-squared) of 0.4138377 suggests that approximately 41.4% of the variation in the number of structural iron and steel workers in Vermont can be explained by the popularity of the name "Menachem."
The p-value of less than 0.01 was obtained, indicating a statistically significant relationship between these variables. These findings provide compelling evidence for the unexpected link between nomenclature and the choice of occupation, particularly in the context of the iron and steel industry in Vermont.
The scatterplot (Fig. 1) visually illustrates the robust correlation between the popularity of the name "Menachem" and the number of structural iron and steel workers in Vermont, confirming the substantial association observed in the quantitative analysis. The scatterplot is a tangible demonstration of the adage, "Steel-ing the show," as the data points form a clear pattern indicative of the relationship between the variables.
These results, while undeniably intriguing, beckon further exploration into the underlying mechanisms that drive this peculiar correlation. The unexpected nature of these findings invites contemplation of the potential influence of names on career choices and the unexplored nuances of occupational preferences. The seemingly whimsical yet statistically robust nature of this correlation invites one to ponder the idiosyncrasies of human behavior and the enigmatic interplay between nomenclature and professional pursuits.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[DISCUSSION]]

ChatGPT:

[[DISCUSSION]]

The unexpected relationship uncovered in this study between the popularity of the first name "Menachem" and the number of structural iron and steel workers in Vermont has left researchers and readers alike pondering the possible underlying mechanisms driving this unlikely correlation. The robust correlation coefficient of 0.6433022, combined with a statistically significant p-value of less than 0.01, supports the prior research investigating the influence of nomenclature on career choices.

While prior studies by Smith et al. (2005) and Doe (2010) found no significant relationship between first names and career choices, our findings challenge this notion by suggesting that the name "Menachem" exerts a meaningful impact on the prevalence of structural iron and steel workers in Vermont. Jones (2018), who explored name associations and their impact on professional trajectories, would be intrigued to see our statistically significant results, which provide tangible evidence for the influence of nomenclature on occupational preferences.

Our results also harmonize with the lighthearted and tangentially related literature that has mused on the whimsical connections between names and various aspects of life. Johnson and Smith's (2014) exploration of the quirkiness of nomenclature in modern society may have been onto something more profound than humor, and the fictional characters of "Steel Magnolias" and "Iron Man" now appear as prescient symbols reflecting the sturdy yet enigmatic nature of the name "Menachem."

The scatterplot further illustrates the substantial positive relationship between the popularity of the name "Menachem" and the number of structural iron and steel workers in Vermont, acting as a tangible manifestation of the unexpected correlation. As the data points form a clear pattern, one cannot help but be reminded of the pun, "Steel-ing the show," as the data vividly demonstrates the prominence of this correlation.

While these findings may seem as unlikely as the escapades of the intrepid researchers in the imaginary "The Correlation Chronicles," they prompt essential contemplation of the potential influence of names on career choices and the uncharted nuances of occupational preferences. The study not only offers an unexpected insight into the cultural tapestry of Vermont but also invites future research to unravel the enigmatic interplay between nomenclature and professional pursuits.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You are a dry but witty academic researcher. You speak in the passive voice, and your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal.You draft the discussion section of goofy academic research papers that sounds like it belongs based on the title and abstract provided.
User prompt:
Pretend you are an academic researcher. Your writing sounds like it belongs in a medical or economics journal. However, you frequently crack jokes, make puns, or add unexpected twists in your writing.

Please make up a short conclusion of an academic research paper presenting the findings of the connection between Popularity of the first name Menachem and The number of structural iron and steel workers in Vermont. Make lots of jokes, goofy observations, and puns.

Limit your response to 300 tokens. At the very end, assert that no more research is needed in this area.

Here are the title, abstract, introduction, and results sections.
[[TITLE]]
"I'm Steel in Love with Menachem: The Quirky Correlation between Name Popularity and Structural Iron and Steel Workers in Vermont"

[[ABSTRACT]]
This research delves into the unexpected relationship between the popularity of the first name "Menachem" and the number of structural iron and steel workers in the picturesque state of Vermont. Leveraging data from the US Social Security Administration and the Bureau of Labor Statistics from the years 2004 to 2022, a correlation coefficient of 0.6433022 with a statistically significant p-value of less than 0.01 was observed. The findings, while seemingly whimsical, raise intriguing questions about the potential influence of nomenclature on career choices and the cultural tapestry of the Green Mountain State. While the results may seem as sturdy as steel, further study is warranted to understand the underlying mechanisms driving this peculiar correlation.

[[INTRDUCTION]]
The relationship between names and occupations has long been a source of curiosity. Names can evoke certain images or expectations, and the field of onomastics, the study of names, has plumbed the depths of the human psyche to understand the implications of nomenclature on various aspects of life. In this vein, our research uncovers the enchanting and enigmatic connection between the popularity of the first name "Menachem" and the occupation of structural iron and steel work in the delightful state of Vermont.
Vermont, known for its rolling hills, verdant landscapes, and picturesque villages, might not immediately bring to mind images of steel-clad structures and towering skyscrapers. Nevertheless, the state plays a role in the vibrant iron and steel industry, albeit in a more quaint and bucolic manner.
The name "Menachem," with its origin in Hebrew and its various linguistic resonances, may strike some as possessing an aura of strength and resilience. How intriguing it is then, that this seemingly sturdy name bears a statistically significant correlation with the number of individuals engaging in the robust and resolute profession of structural iron and steel work in Vermont.
We invite the reader to don their mental hard hats and steel-toed boots as we venture into this fascinating exploration of nomenclature, occupation, and the idiosyncrasies of human behavior. The findings promise to add a touch of whimsy and wonder to the often austere world of empirical research.

[[RESULTS]]
The results of this study revealed a striking correlation between the popularity of the first name "Menachem" and the number of structural iron and steel workers in the picturesque state of Vermont. For the time period from 2004 to 2022, a correlation coefficient of 0.6433022 was observed, indicating a moderately strong positive relationship between these seemingly incongruent variables. The coefficient of determination (r-squared) of 0.4138377 suggests that approximately 41.4% of the variation in the number of structural iron and steel workers in Vermont can be explained by the popularity of the name "Menachem."
The p-value of less than 0.01 was obtained, indicating a statistically significant relationship between these variables. These findings provide compelling evidence for the unexpected link between nomenclature and the choice of occupation, particularly in the context of the iron and steel industry in Vermont.
The scatterplot (Fig. 1) visually illustrates the robust correlation between the popularity of the name "Menachem" and the number of structural iron and steel workers in Vermont, confirming the substantial association observed in the quantitative analysis. The scatterplot is a tangible demonstration of the adage, "Steel-ing the show," as the data points form a clear pattern indicative of the relationship between the variables.
These results, while undeniably intriguing, beckon further exploration into the underlying mechanisms that drive this peculiar correlation. The unexpected nature of these findings invites contemplation of the potential influence of names on career choices and the unexplored nuances of occupational preferences. The seemingly whimsical yet statistically robust nature of this correlation invites one to ponder the idiosyncrasies of human behavior and the enigmatic interplay between nomenclature and professional pursuits.

-------

Your response should start like this:

[[CONCLUSION]]

ChatGPT:

[[CONCLUSION]]

In conclusion, the correlation between the popularity of the first name "Menachem" and the number of structural iron and steel workers in Vermont paints a picture as charming and peculiar as a steel sculpture in a country meadow. The statistically significant relationship between these seemingly incongruent variables raises questions as perplexing as trying to weld a cloud. While our findings may seem as firm as a riveted steel beam, we must remember that correlation does not imply causation - after all, we wouldn't want to be caught in a "steel trap" of erroneous assumptions.

The unexpected nature of this correlation invites speculation as whimsical as a lighthearted steelworker - Does the name "Menachem" carry an implicit allure for robust professions? Is there an esoteric camaraderie among individuals with this name that draws them to structural iron and steel work? These questions may elicit the kind of head scratching one does when trying to find a magnet in a steel factory.

While this study sheds light on a quirky and enchanting correlation, it also reveals the gaps in our understanding of the intricate dance between nomenclature and vocational paths. The delightful conundrum of this correlation prompts reflection as profoundly baffling as attempting to find a needle in a haystack, or perhaps in this case, a nail in a steel girder.

To this end, no stones are left unturned in our data analysis, and no steel beam is left unexamined in our quest for understanding. We assert that no further research in this area is needed, as occasionally in the world of academia, it's best just to let the steel beams be. All puns aside, the unexpected correlation between the name "Menachem" and structural iron and steel work in Vermont stands as a testament to the charming, confounding, and sometimes whimsical nature of human behavior.

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide fictional names of academic journals. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide the name of a funny but plausible sounding research, scientific, or academic journal that would publish a paper entited I'm Steel in Love with Menachem: The Quirky Correlation between Name Popularity and Structural Iron and Steel Workers in Vermont. Respond only with the name of a fictional academic journal.

ChatGPT:

The Journal of Eccentric Sociological Studies

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide fictional names of nonprofit research organizations and associations. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide the name of a funny but plausible sounding nonprofit, academic, or scientific association or organization that would sponsor research that resulted in a paper entited I'm Steel in Love with Menachem: The Quirky Correlation between Name Popularity and Structural Iron and Steel Workers in Vermont. Respond only with the name of a fictional organization.

ChatGPT:

The Society for Quirky Correlations and Unconventional Research (SQCUR)

Model: gpt-3.5-turbo-1106
System prompt: You provide potential search keywords separated by commas. You say nothing else, and you do not chat with the user.
User prompt: Please provide potential search keywords for a paper titled I'm Steel in Love with Menachem: The Quirky Correlation between Name Popularity and Structural Iron and Steel Workers in Vermont with an abstract of This research delves into the unexpected relationship between the popularity of the first name "Menachem" and the number of structural iron and steel workers in the picturesque state of Vermont. Leveraging data from the US Social Security Administration and the Bureau of Labor Statistics from the years 2004 to 2022, a correlation coefficient of 0.6433022 with a statistically significant p-value of less than 0.01 was observed. The findings, while seemingly whimsical, raise intriguing questions about the potential influence of nomenclature on career choices and the cultural tapestry of the Green Mountain State. While the results may seem as sturdy as steel, further study is warranted to understand the underlying mechanisms driving this peculiar correlation.

ChatGPT:

"Menachem name popularity," "structural iron and steel workers Vermont correlation," "US Social Security Administration data analysis," "Bureau of Labor Statistics Vermont employment trends," "nomenclature influence on career choices," "cultural tapestry of Vermont," "correlation coefficient analysis," "statistical significance in data analysis," "influence of name on career trends," "correlation between name popularity and employment," "Vermont labor market analysis," "naming influence on occupation choices."

*There is a bunch of Python happening behind the scenes to turn this prompt sequence into a PDF.

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Data details

Popularity of the first name Menachem
Detailed data title: Babies of all sexes born in the US named Menachem
Source: US Social Security Administration
See what else correlates with Popularity of the first name Menachem

The number of structural iron and steel workers in Vermont
Detailed data title: BLS estimate of structural iron and steel workers in Vermont
Source: Bureau of Larbor Statistics
See what else correlates with The number of structural iron and steel workers in Vermont

Correlation r = 0.6433022 (Pearson correlation coefficient)
Correlation is a measure of how much the variables move together. If it is 0.99, when one goes up the other goes up. If it is 0.02, the connection is very weak or non-existent. If it is -0.99, then when one goes up the other goes down. If it is 1.00, you probably messed up your correlation function.

r² = 0.4138377 (Coefficient of determination)
This means 41.4% of the change in the one variable (i.e., The number of structural iron and steel workers in Vermont) is predictable based on the change in the other (i.e., Popularity of the first name Menachem) over the 19 years from 2004 through 2022.

p < 0.01, which is statistically significant(Null hypothesis significance test)
The p-value is 0.003.^Show 0.0029640388962331073000000000
The p-value is a measure of how probable it is that we would randomly find a result this extreme.^Note More specifically the p-value is a measure of how probable it is that we would randomly find a result this extreme if we had only tested one pair of variables one time.

But I am a p-villain. I absolutely did not test only one pair of variables one time. I correlated hundreds of millions of pairs of variables. I threw boatloads of data into an industrial-sized blender to find this correlation.

Who is going to stop me? p-value reporting doesn't require me to report how many calculations I had to go through in order to find a low p-value!
On average, you will find a correaltion as strong as 0.64 in 0.3% of random cases. Said differently, if you correlated 337 random variables^Note Which I absolutely did.
with the same 18 degrees of freedom, ^Note Degrees of freedom is a measure of how many free components we are testing. In this case it is 18 because we have two variables measured over a period of 19 years. It's just the number of years minus ( the number of variables minus one ), which in this case simplifies to the number of years minus one.
you would randomly expect to find a correlation as strong as this one.

[ 0.27, 0.85 ] 95% correlation confidence interval (using the Fisher z-transformation)
^{Read more about the confidence interval} The confidence interval is an estimate the range of the value of the correlation coefficient, using the correlation itself as an input. The values are meant to be the low and high end of the correlation coefficient with 95% confidence.

This one is a bit more complciated than the other calculations, but I include it because many people have been pushing for confidence intervals instead of p-value calculations (for example: NEJM. However, if you are dredging data, you can reliably find yourself in the 5%. That's my goal!

All values for the years included above: ^Note If I were being very sneaky, I could trim years from the beginning or end of the datasets to increase the correlation on some pairs of variables. I don't do that because there are already plenty of correlations in my database without monkeying with the years.

Still, sometimes one of the variables has more years of data available than the other. This page only shows the overlapping years. To see all the years, click on "See what else correlates with..." link above.

	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
Popularity of the first name Menachem (Babies born)	166	181	193	204	169	200	210	183	170	164	212	181	204	195	190	171	198	201	193
The number of structural iron and steel workers in Vermont (Laborers)	30	70	110	120	60	60	80	70	40	40	70	70	60	90	100	30	80	80	90

Why this works

Data dredging: I have 25,153 variables in my database. I compare all these variables against each other to find ones that randomly match up. That's 632,673,409 correlation calculations! This is called “data dredging.” Instead of starting with a hypothesis and testing it, I instead abused the data to see what correlations shake out. It’s a dangerous way to go about analysis, because any sufficiently large dataset will yield strong correlations completely at random.
Lack of causal connection: There is probably^Note Because these pages are automatically generated, it's possible that the two variables you are viewing are in fact causually related. I take steps to prevent the obvious ones from showing on the site (I don't let data about the weather in one city correlate with the weather in a neighboring city, for example), but sometimes they still pop up. If they are related, cool! You found a loophole.
no direct connection between these variables, despite what the AI says above. This is exacerbated by the fact that I used "Years" as the base variable. Lots of things happen in a year that are not related to each other! Most studies would use something like "one person" in stead of "one year" to be the "thing" studied.
Observations not independent: For many variables, sequential years are not independent of each other. If a population of people is continuously doing something every day, there is no reason to think they would suddenly change how they are doing that thing on January 1. A simple^Note Personally I don't find any p-value calculation to be 'simple,' but you know what I mean.
p-value calculation does not take this into account, so mathematically it appears less probable than it really is.
Y-axis doesn't start at zero: I truncated the Y-axes of the graph above. I also used a line graph, which makes the visual connection stand out more than it deserves. ^Note Nothing against line graphs. They are great at telling a story when you have linear data! But visually it is deceptive because the only data is at the points on the graph, not the lines on the graph. In between each point, the data could have been doing anything. Like going for a random walk by itself!
Mathematically what I showed is true, but it is intentionally misleading. Below is the same chart but with both Y-axes starting at zero.

Try it yourself

You can calculate the values on this page on your own! Try running the Python code to see the calculation results. ^{Show the steps to do this.} Step 1: Download and install Python on your computer.

Step 2: Open a plaintext editor like Notepad and paste the code below into it.

Step 3: Save the file as "calculate_correlation.py" in a place you will remember, like your desktop. Copy the file location to your clipboard. On Windows, you can right-click the file and click "Properties," and then copy what comes after "Location:" As an example, on my computer the location is "C:\Users\tyler\Desktop"

Step 4: Open a command line window. For example, by pressing start and typing "cmd" and them pressing enter.

Step 5: Install the required modules by typing "pip install numpy", then pressing enter, then typing "pip install scipy", then pressing enter.

Step 6: Navigate to the location where you saved the Python file by using the "cd" command. For example, I would type "cd C:\Users\tyler\Desktop" and push enter.

Step 7: Run the Python script by typing "python calculate_correlation.py"

If you run into any issues, I suggest asking ChatGPT to walk you through installing Python and running the code below on your system. Try this question:

"Walk me through installing Python on my computer to run a script that uses scipy and numpy. Go step-by-step and ask me to confirm before moving on. Start by asking me questions about my operating system so that you know how to proceed. Assume I want the simplest installation with the latest version of Python and that I do not currently have any of the necessary elements installed. Remember to only give me one step per response and confirm I have done it before proceeding."

# These modules make it easier to perform the calculation
import numpy as np
from scipy import stats

# We'll define a function that we can call to return the correlation calculations
def calculate_correlation(array1, array2):

    # Calculate Pearson correlation coefficient and p-value
    correlation, p_value = stats.pearsonr(array1, array2)

    # Calculate R-squared as the square of the correlation coefficient
    r_squared = correlation**2

    return correlation, r_squared, p_value

# These are the arrays for the variables shown on this page, but you can modify them to be any two sets of numbers
array_1 = np.array([166,181,193,204,169,200,210,183,170,164,212,181,204,195,190,171,198,201,193,])
array_2 = np.array([30,70,110,120,60,60,80,70,40,40,70,70,60,90,100,30,80,80,90,])
array_1_name = "Popularity of the first name Menachem"
array_2_name = "The number of structural iron and steel workers in Vermont"

# Perform the calculation
print(f"Calculating the correlation between {array_1_name} and {array_2_name}...")
correlation, r_squared, p_value = calculate_correlation(array_1, array_2)

# Print the results
print("Correlation Coefficient:", correlation)
print("R-squared:", r_squared)
print("P-value:", p_value)

Reuseable content

You may re-use the images on this page for any purpose, even commercial purposes, without asking for permission. The only requirement is that you attribute Tyler Vigen. ^Note Attribution can take many different forms. If you leave the "tylervigen.com" link in the image, that satisfies it just fine. If you remove it and move it to a footnote, that's fine too. You can also just write "Charts courtesy of Tyler Vigen" at the bottom of an article.

You do not need to attribute "the spurious correlations website," and you don't even need to link here if you don't want to. I don't gain anything from pageviews. There are no ads on this site, there is nothing for sale, and I am not for hire.

For the record, I am just one person. Tyler Vigen, he/him/his. I do have degrees, but they should not go after my name unless you want to annoy my wife. If that is your goal, then go ahead and cite me as "Tyler Vigen, A.A. A.A.S. B.A. J.D." Otherwise it is just "Tyler Vigen."

When spoken, my last name is pronounced "vegan," like I don't eat meat.

Full license details.
For more on re-use permissions, or to get a signed release form, see tylervigen.com/permission.

Download images for these variables:

High resolution line chart ^Note The image linked here is a Scalable Vector Graphic (SVG). It is the highest resolution that is possible to achieve. It scales up beyond the size of the observable universe without pixelating. You do not need to email me asking if I have a higher resolution image. I do not. The physical limitations of our universe prevent me from providing you with an image that is any higher resolution than this one.

If you insert it into a PowerPoint presentation (a tool well-known for managing things that are the scale of the universe), you can right-click > "Ungroup" or "Create Shape" and then edit the lines and text directly. You can also change the colors this way.

Alternatively you can use a tool like Inkscape.
High resolution line chart, optimized for mobile
Alternative high resolution line chart
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Portable line chart (png)
Portable line chart (png), optimized for mobile
Line chart for only Popularity of the first name Menachem
Line chart for only The number of structural iron and steel workers in Vermont
AI-generated correlation image
The spurious research paper: I'm Steel in Love with Menachem: The Quirky Correlation between Name Popularity and Structural Iron and Steel Workers in Vermont

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Correlation ID: 4172 · Black Variable ID: 4145 · Red Variable ID: 17439


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